The Marketing Architects Podcast: Episode Summary
Episode Title: Nerd Alert: The Cost of Going Dark
Release Date: July 3, 2025
Host: Linda Jasper
Co-Host: Rob Demars
Podcast Description: The Marketing Architects is a research-first podcast dedicated to answering your toughest marketing questions. It delves into marketing, psychology, and economics research to address the latest trends and news, fostering discussions on marketing accountability, category leadership, brand-building, and more. The podcast features a team of experienced marketers who provide proven strategies for success.
Introduction
In this episode of The Marketing Architects, hosts Linda Jasper and Rob Demars explore the ramifications of brands ceasing their advertising efforts—a phenomenon they refer to as "going dark." The discussion is anchored around a comprehensive study that examines the impact of halting advertising on brand performance across various consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories in the United States.
Notable Quote:
Rob Demars [00:02]: "Yes, exactly. What a bunch of nerds."
Overview of the Study
Linda introduces a study titled "When Brands Go Dark: A Replication and Extension," conducted by researchers from the Ehrenberg Bass Institute, including Pei Ling, Nicole Hartnett, Virginia Beale, Zhang Trinh, and Rachel Kennedy. This study builds upon previous research conducted in Australia, which observed the effects of reduced advertising on alcohol brands.
The new study expands the scope to 365 U.S. brands across 22 CPG categories, such as cereal, carbonated beverages, skincare, pasta, and cough drops. Unlike the earlier research that focused on sales volume, this study zeroes in on market share—a more indicative measure of a brand's long-term health.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [00:56]: "What happens when a brand goes dark and turns off their advertising spend?"
Rob Demars [01:18]: "I think you defer cost and incur brand damage."
Key Findings
The study reveals a clear, progressive decline in market share for brands that halt their advertising:
- Year 1: 10% decline
- Year 2: 20% decline
- Year 3: 28% decline
- Year 4: 30% decline
This decline is characterized as a "slow leak," where the immediate impact may seem minimal, but over time, the absence of advertising erodes the brand's market position.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [02:15]: "If you stop advertising, your market share drops and it drops steadily the longer you stay silent."
Rob Demars [07:58]: "Turning off your ads is like turning off the fridge. Everything still looks fine for a bit, but spoilage is coming."
Factors Influencing the Impact of Going Dark
Rob and Linda delve into the factors that exacerbate or mitigate the effects of stopping advertising:
-
Brand Size:
- Larger Brands: More resilient due to established market presence and sustained brand equity.
- Smaller Brands: More susceptible to rapid and sharp declines, especially if they were already experiencing stagnant growth before halting advertising.
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Brand Trajectory:
- Brands in a declining phase suffer more when they stop advertising, as it accelerates their downward trend.
- Brands that are stable or growing have a buffer, but still experience cumulative losses over time.
Notable Quote:
Rob Demars [03:19]: "Newer brands are obviously going to struggle. They have a job to do in terms of even being known."
Linda Jasper [03:47]: "The trajectory of your brand before stopping advertising was a single best predictor of future success or failure."
Category-Specific Impacts
The study categorizes products based on their purchase frequency using the Food Marketing Institute's framework: staples, fill-ins, niches, and variety enhancers. Key insights include:
- Low Frequency Categories: Products purchased infrequently (e.g., tea, skincare, deodorant) suffer more when advertising stops because consumers are less frequently reminded of their existence.
- High Frequency Categories: Products bought regularly (e.g., crackers, cereal) are less affected as they remain top-of-mind due to habitual purchasing.
Interestingly, categories like cat food and baby food were exceptions, with some even experiencing slight growth despite reduced advertising.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [05:33]: "Low frequency categories suffered a lot more when they stopped advertising for multiple years."
Rob Demars [05:54]: "Your brand's shelf in the brain is Empty."
Theoretical Insights
The discussion ties the study's findings to broader marketing theories:
- Mental Availability: Advertising plays a crucial role in keeping a brand top-of-mind, especially for light buyers who make occasional purchases.
- Aaron Berg Bass Theory: Light buyers constitute the majority of the customer base and are the easiest to lose if a brand fades from memory.
The study reinforces the importance of maintaining mental availability through consistent advertising to safeguard against losing a significant portion of the customer base over time.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [06:30]: "Mental availability matters. Advertising isn't just about short term sales. It's about staying in people's heads."
Linda Jasper [06:50]: "Irwin Efron said not being there with a message is like being out of stock."
Practical Implications
Linda and Rob highlight the practical applications of the study for marketers:
- Strategic Decision-Making: With concrete data on potential market share losses, marketers can make informed decisions about maintaining or cutting advertising budgets.
- Category Considerations: Understanding the nuances of one's specific product category can guide tailored advertising strategies to mitigate the risks associated with going dark.
- Avoiding Self-Fulfilling Prophecies: Recognizing that brands likely to cut spend are already on a decline emphasizes the need for proactive measures rather than reactive ones.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [07:20]: "You can walk into a meeting and say, here's what could happen if we go dark. Are we prepared to lose 10% share in a year?"
Rob Demars [08:16]: "The data supports it. You're like, ok, it helps confirm long standing assumptions."
Conclusion
The episode underscores the significant adverse effects of brands ceasing their advertising efforts, particularly for smaller brands and those in low-frequency categories. By leveraging empirical data, marketers are better equipped to understand the long-term consequences of reducing or stopping advertising spend, thereby facilitating more strategic and informed decision-making processes.
Notable Quote:
Linda Jasper [09:03]: "If you're in a low frequency category and your growth is slowing, you really don't want to cut advertising."
Rob Demars [09:27]: "I just feel like my brain is out of stock a lot, you know? So, yeah, me too."
Final Thoughts:
This episode of The Marketing Architects provides valuable insights backed by rigorous research, emphasizing the critical role of sustained advertising in maintaining and growing market share. By translating complex academic findings into actionable strategies, Linda Jasper and Rob Demars offer marketers the tools needed to navigate the challenges of advertising budget decisions effectively.