Nerd Alert: The Packaging Redesign Dilemma

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: The Marketing Architects
Episode Title: Nerd Alert: The Packaging Redesign Dilemma
Date: July 9, 2026
Host(s): Alena Jasper (Marketing Team) and Rob Demar (Chief Product Architect, Misfits and Machines)

This episode investigates the real-world impact of packaging redesigns, especially the common urge among marketers to "modernize" their products’ looks. Using fresh academic research, Alena and Rob challenge whether looking more modern actually drives purchases and explore the tension between staying "current" and remaining familiar to consumers. Iconic case studies like Tropicana and Heinz set the stage for a research-backed discussion on what really matters in packaging changes.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Introduction: Setting Up the Redesign Obsession

[00:00-02:23]

• The episode opens playfully, setting a "nerd alert" for a deep dive into marketing psychology and research.
• Alena dramatically recounts the infamous Tropicana packaging debacle:

  “Tropicana redesigned its orange juice carton in 2009, lost 20% of sales in two months, and crawled back to the old design like a man texting his ex at 2am. This is the single most romantic story in marketing history, and I will not be taking any questions.” (Alena, 00:34)

• The hosts riff on what brands would personally devastate them with a packaging change:
  • Rob: Heinz ketchup bottle – iconic, even if less functional than “modern” squeeze bottles.
  • Alena: Apple – the joy and distinctive feel of unboxing (“air suction noise”).

2. Research Spotlight: The Real Effects of Modernizing Packaging

[02:23-06:33]

• Main Paper Discussed:
  “The Packaging Redesign Modernization Dilemma: The Relationship with Familiarity, Likability and its Effect on Purchase Intent”
  Authors: William Caruso, Jenny Romanick, Bill Page et al., Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, 2026 (published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services)
• Context & Stakes:
  • 58% of marketers redesign to look “more modern,” often at immense cost.
  • Case examples:
    • Tropicana’s $33 million loss in a month ([00:37-02:23]).
    • German brand Bahlsen: award-winning redesign, followed by a 12% sales drop.
• Central question: Why do internal teams and design awards love modern redesigns, when shoppers may reject them?

Panel Reflection:

• Rob:

  “If you’re on that marketing team... [you think] we have to make a modern brand. And that’s just a natural instinct. But... nostalgia... you’re changing something that's deeply important to them that they remember from their childhood... They’re mourning the change.” (Rob, 04:06)

• Alena:

  “There’s this effect of marketers getting sick of our own stuff, way earlier than consumers.” (Alena, 04:48)

3. Study Methodology & Surprises

[05:14-07:02]

• Study Design:
  • 48 real-world package redesigns (snacks, drinks, breakfast foods, dairy).
  • Nearly 1,000 consumers surveyed in the US & UK.
  • Respondents rated: modernity, likability, familiarity, and purchase preference.
• Key Findings:
  • Making a design “more modern” has basically zero direct effect on purchase decisions.
  • Modern look → higher likability → helps purchase, but only when combined with high familiarity.
  • Familiarity most strongly drives purchase—more than whether consumers like the new look.
  • Contrary to expectations, some modernized packages felt more familiar, because they aligned with current visual norms.
• Alena:

  “A modern look made people like the package more. And being liked, plus being recognizable, is what actually nudged purchase. So modernness was a means to an end, not the end itself. But the biggest driver... was familiarity.” (Alena, 05:14-06:33)

4. The Paradox of Distinctiveness vs. Modernity

[06:33-07:02]

• Rob:

  “As everyone chases a more modern design, are you all embracing the same design sensibilities and therefore become less distinctive? ...Maybe what has carried you that far... keeps you more recognizable and more distinctive by not chasing the next, more sophisticated font choice.” (Rob, 06:33)

• Alena:

  “You see that, especially with B2B tech brands... everyone just looks the same.” (Alena, 07:02)

5. Practical Takeaways for Marketers

[07:02-08:34]

• When to Redesign:
  Only when likability is actually declining (track it over time).
  Avoid redesigning just to “look modern.”
• How to Redesign:
  • Maintain and promote distinctive brand assets.
  • Support new look with campaigns to rebuild familiarity.
  • Judge effectiveness by shopper recognition, not internal enthusiasm or design awards.
• Alena’s Analogy:

  “A redesign is like a friend showing up to the reunion with a dramatic new haircut. A sharp, current style gets compliments, people like it. But if they change so much that you walk past them in the parking lot, the haircut just cost you a hello. The goal isn’t looking the most modern, it’s being instantly you.” (Alena, 08:21)

6. The “Cloud” Design Insight

[08:34-08:57]

• Rob:
  Observes the trend of every site going “off-white...a little more sophisticated...a Seraphy font, a little more scholarly.”
• Alena:

  “You want your brand to feel like it fits. You don’t want to look outdated, but...then everybody ends up looking the exact same.” (Alena, 08:57)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Tropicana redesigned its orange juice carton in 2009, lost 20% of sales in two months, and crawled back to the old design like a man texting his ex at 2am.” (Alena, 00:34)
• “You’re changing something that’s deeply important to them that they remember from their childhood… They’re mourning the change.” (Rob, 04:06)
• “Marketers get sick of our own stuff, like, way earlier than consumers.” (Alena, 04:48)
• “Looking more modern had basically zero direct effect on whether people bought.” (Alena, 05:14)
• “Maybe what has carried you that far… keeps you more recognizable and more distinctive by not chasing the next, more sophisticated font choice.” (Rob, 06:33)
• “The goal isn’t looking the most modern, it’s being instantly you.” (Alena’s analogy, 08:21)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:34: Tropicana story, setting the stage for packaging disasters.
• 02:23: Introduction of key research paper and setup.
• 04:06: Rob explains the emotional side of familiarity and nostalgia.
• 05:14: Research methods and shocking findings (modernity ≠ sales).
• 06:33: The risk of blending in as everyone “modernizes.”
• 07:02: Actionable takeaways for marketers.
• 08:21: The reunion haircut analogy drives home the central message.

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Episode Tone & Style

Lively, self-aware, and playfully “nerdy,” with an emphasis on evidence over myth. The co-hosts’ banter keeps the discussion accessible while dissecting complex research, grounded in real-world marketing headaches and cautionary tales.

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In Summary:
Redesigns should solve a real problem—declining likability—not just satisfy an urge for modernity. The ultimate driver is familiarity, and the true risk is making your brand unrecognizable in a sea of “modern” sameness. Test ideas with real shoppers; don't chase change for its own sake.

Transcript

[A]

Nerd Alert. Learning is important, right?

[B]

Yes, exactly. What a bunch of nerds.

[A]

Nerd alert.

[B]

Right? Marketing Architects. Hello and welcome to the Marketing Architects, a research first podcast dedicated to answering your toughest marketing questions. I'm Alena Jasper on the marketing team here at Marketing Architects, and I'm joined by my co host. Rob Demar is the chief product architect of misfits and machines.

[A]

Hello.

[B]

Hello. We're back with your weekly Nerd Alert. Every week, I'll take a deep dive into academic marketing research and translate its complex ideas into simple, understandable language for Rob, and of course, for all of you. Are you ready to nerd out, Rob Melina?

[A]

I'm so ready to nerd out. Tropicana redesigned its orange juice carton in 2009, lost 20% of sales in two months, and crawled back to the old design like a man texting his ex at 2am this is the single most romantic story in marketing history, and I will not be taking any questions.

[B]

Okay, great. Well, you spoiled the future story. I was going to tell a little bit, but I think everybody has heard that Tropicana one before. So if that's any hint, today we're talking about redesigns specifically. It's that itch every brand gets. It seems like every few years to make their brand look more modern. And it might feel like an easy way to make a difference, but it's also how some of the most famous flops in marketing history have happened, Tropicana being one of them. So, Rob, before we dig into the study, which brand would you personally be most annoyed at if they change the look of their iconic packaging?

[A]

I mean, I'm going to go with an old standby and it's kind of ironic because you're going to probably argue with me on this one, but just the Heinz ketchup bottle, I just feel like it looks so great on a table, like you don't even want to use it. It's just, it's so pretty, it's so iconic now you can push back and go, well, actually, it's been redesigned in all kinds of form factors. Upside down squeezables, and those are probably superior packaging options, but, man, that bottle, there's no way they're ever going to change that.

[B]

Yeah, well, it definitely gives you a different feeling when you're at a restaurant that uses the Heinz bottle.

[A]

For sure, they make you dig for the ketchup with a knife.

[B]

Yes, there is something about that experience. I agree. It's like slightly. There's some friction to it. But that's probably part of the experience, actually. I thought you were going to say Apple or something like that, but I guess the Apple examples get old a little bit, but they, they do pretty good job.

[A]

Do you have one that just jumps out at you?

[B]

Honestly, I was thinking Apple, which is probably an easy cop out because I just like the way when you open the phone box and it kind of

[A]

likes out, it actually makes that kind of like that noise of air compression is.

[B]

Yes, like the air suction noise. Yeah. Heinz is a great one. That's a great example. So this paper is about redesigns, but it specifically redesigns with packaging. It's titled the Packaging Redesign Modernization Dilemma. The Relationship with Familiarity, Likability and its Effect on Purchase Intent. It's led by some familiar names. William Caruso with Jenny Romanick, Bill Page and colleagues, mostly out of Ehrenberg Bass in Australia. And this came out this year in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. So it is hot off the presses. So let's talk about this study. Redesigning a whole packaging range can cost brands millions of dollars. And the number one reason brands say they do it is to look for, quote, unquote, modern. 58% of marketers say modernization was the main goal of their last redesign. So this is a very common, very expensive bet that marketers are making on almost a daily basis. And almost no one until this paper had actually tested whether looking more modern makes people buy more. And of course, there's these horror stories. Robbie talked about Tropicana. They redesigned their orange juice carton to look sleeker. Sales dropped 20%. That's $33 million a single month. And they scrambled back to their old design. A German cookie brand, Boslin, did a modern redesign that won a big global design award. And then sales fell about 12% and they lost their lead in several markets. Rob, why do you think a redesign can look great to an internal marketing team, even great to an award show, and then still tank with actual shoppers?

[A]

I think you're dealing with two incredible forces. You're dealing with the need for people to change something because change is supposed to be better, you know? And so if you're on that marketing team and you're looking at all the factors, you're like, we have to make a modern brand. And that's just a natural instinct. But I think the other side of the natural instinct is nostalgia. And when you think of your audiences, you're changing something that's deeply important to them that they remember from their childhood or from the times. You know, they associate with the brand. They're mourning the change. So I think. I think it's just like changing an ad campaign is such a natural instinct for marketers, but oftentimes it can be really lost on your audience.

[B]

Yeah, I agree. We know how important familiarity is to buying something. I think also there's always this effect of marketers getting sick of our own stuff, like, way earlier than consumers. Like, we might be overthinking it. Like, oh, man, this looks old. This doesn't look modern. Like, I get that way about our website every couple months. I'm like, I hate our website now. Like, you just kind of want something new, but really, if someone's just going there for the first time, they're having a brand new experience or they're not staring at it every single day.

[A]

Definitely.

[B]

Like you are. Okay, let's talk about the research. So they looked at 48 packaging redesigns, and they were looking across categories like snacks, drinks, breakfast foods, and dairy. They showed them to nearly a thousand shoppers, about 484 in the US and 491 in the United Kingdom. People rated each design on three things. How modern it looked, how much they liked it, and how familiar it felt. Then they picked which one they'd actually buy. Not fun. And what they found was that looking more modern had basically zero direct effect on whether people bought. So that by itself did not move the needle, but it did matter indirectly. So a more modern look made people like the package more. And being liked, plus being recognizable, is what actually nudged purchase. So modernness was a means to an end, not the end itself. But the biggest driver of purchase actually wasn't likability, it was familiarity. So. So recognizing the package mattered more than thinking it looked nice. The researchers even expected modernizing to hurt familiarity, which is, you know, you change the look, people recognize it less. But they actually found the opposite. Modern designs felt a little more familiar because a current look matches what our brains expect to see right now. It just sort of feels right to us. So, Rob, does that surprise you that people recognizing a package matters more for sales than them actually liking the design of the package?

[A]

Well, you have to wonder, as everyone chases a more modern design, are you all sort of embracing the same design sensibilities, and therefore you become less distinctive looking? Right. I mean, maybe perhaps of what has carried you that far. And the fact that you've aged out of what is considered modern just keeps you, though, more recognizable and more distinctive by the very nature of not chasing the next more sophisticated font choice.

[B]

Yeah, there's definitely that effect. I mean, you see that with especially like, B2B tech brands, like, everybody just looks the same or like people start using a specific type of design style. And you're right, like, all these brands start to kind of feel the exact same to us. So a few takeaways from the study. Being modern doesn't mean your sales are going to grow. It's more of a tool that you can reach for when your packaging starts to look dated and people actually stop liking it. So redesigning to look more modern is a fix for a specific problem. Not saying you shouldn't do it, but it's not going to help you grow all on its own. And the real issue is if you go through a redesign, you're trying to look more modern and then you throw away the distinctive assets that are helping shoppers find you. So definitely don't do a redesign just to look modern. Redesign when you see likability actually slipping. And you should track that over time so that you know when that is. If you do make a change, plan to rebuild familiarity. So maybe if you're going to update some of your packaging, invest in a marketing campaign at the same time and then be suspicious of things like design awards as your scorecard, you should test with real shoppers on findability and brand recognition, not just talking to your marketing team about how cool it looks. Okay, time for a Rob GPT. Think of a redesign like a friend showing up to the reunion with a dramatic new haircut. A sharp current style gets compliments, people like it. But if they change so much that you walk right past them in the parking lot, the haircut just cost you a hello. So the goal isn't looking the most modern, it's being instantly you. Rob, what do you think of that one? Kind of fun.

[A]

Gosh, it won't. Especially as marketers, we all love modern, right? I mean, if you look at right now, how many websites, when they go through a redesign, now just watch, they're all doing the cloud thing. They're going off white. Have you noticed that? Like, it's like, oh, it's a little more sophisticated looking, you know, and it's. It's got a little bit more of a. A Seraphy font, a little more scholarly.

[B]

Yes. It reminds me of like in the office when Jan changes Michael's. She's like, this is an eggshell white. Do you remember that? When she, like, it's like Margaret's like, we're just a little. We're a little bit different. But you're right. They all start to. They all start to feel and look the same. I can see the inclination, because you want your brand to feel like it fits. You don't want to look outdated, but, yeah, then everybody ends up looking the exact same. You don't stand out. Okay, that's it for this episode of the Marketing Architects. We'd like to thank Taylor De Los Reyes for producing the show. You can connect with us on LinkedIn. And if you like the podcast, please leave us a review. Now go forth and build great marketing. Marketing Architects.