The Marketing Architects

Episode: The Long & Short of Measurement with Matt Hultgren

Date: December 16, 2025
Host(s): Elena Jasper, Angela Voss, Rob Demar
Guest: Matt Hultgren, Chief Analytics Officer, Marketing Architects

Overview

This episode delves into the enduring challenge of marketing measurement—with a focus on balancing short-term performance and long-term brand building. Drawing from new proprietary research and decades of practical experience, the hosts and guest Matt Hultgren tackle campaign measurement myths, attribution misconceptions, how to break down team silos, and the need for rigorous planning. The panel offers actionable guidance for marketers and explores emerging tools and models in effectiveness measurement.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Persistent Measurement Challenge

(00:43 – 02:43)

• Human behavior is messy and context-driven. Consumer decisions stem from emotions, habits, memory, and social influences, making them difficult to precisely track in data.
• Marketing effects are cumulative and delayed. Single ads rarely drive immediate purchase; instead, campaigns build familiarity and brand memory over time—a pattern most measurement systems miss.

"People make choices based on their emotion, their habit, their memory, their friend, their identity, social cues, none of which is easily visible in data and all of which shifts over time."
—Angela Voss (01:47)

2. Misconceptions about Attribution & Digital Metrics

(03:06 – 03:57)

• Marketers chase instant feedback from digital channels and expect the same from offline (like TV), leading to unrealistic expectations ("the silver bullet solution").
• Digital platforms (Google, Meta) have nurtured a culture of immediacy and supposed perfect measurement—unrealistic for complex, multi-channel campaigns.

"It's that need for speed where people sometimes forget how offline channels work and how consumers interact with media."
—Matt Hultgren (03:34)

3. The Planning Problem

(04:21 – 05:27)

• Siloed teams and unclear goals undermine campaigns before they start.
• Many marketers treat TV as an add-on without integrating strategy or defining clear KPIs.
• Budget, timing, and cross-team coordination are often neglected, leading to wasted spend and measurement failures.

"Teams can be so disjointed...I got 50 grand, I'm just going to throw it at TV and see if that works. Is 50 grand enough? ...There aren't these conversations happening."
—Matt Hultgren (04:28)

4. The North Star Metric

(05:31 – 07:04)

• Rather than tracking dozens of KPIs, marketers should align around a single, strategic “North Star Metric” for each channel.
• This fosters clarity on campaign intent (brand, traffic, revenue) and helps teams define success upfront.

"Simplification can really help...just be really aligned on that before you even start.”
—Matt Hultgren (06:13)

5. Balancing CAC and Brand Growth

(07:04 – 08:30)

• While short-term customer acquisition cost (CAC) metrics are vital for some businesses, building long-term brand value delivers market share, loyalty, and pricing power.
• TV can drive both day-one results and longer-term growth; brands must assess their stage and goals.

"We do know the power of building a brand...having more loyal customers, growing your market share. I don't think anyone's going to complain about that."
—Matt Hultgren (07:44)

6. Breaking Down Team Silos

(09:02 – 09:50)

• TV works best when brand, performance, and digital teams collaborate.
• Measurement should account for TV’s full-funnel impact and encourage holistic planning and shared KPIs.

"If you want TV to work as hard as it possibly can for you...I would sure hope you have your digital teams at that table."
—Matt Hultgren (09:18)

7. "All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful"

(10:12 – 11:27)

• No one model or tool ("silver bullet") reveals all truths; marketers must triangulate using multiple approaches for confidence in results.
• Each model has strengths and gaps; understanding these is key to good decision-making.

"Measuring TV is hard. Like it's not easy...there isn't a silver bullet and you're going to have to be comfortable with ambiguity."
—Matt Hultgren (10:26)

8. Short-Term vs Long-Term Metrics

(11:27 – 12:33)

• Short spikes can be misleading—look for longer-term trends to gauge effectiveness.
• Brand metrics, like awareness, take sustained investment; expect delayed results.

"If you are looking for those bigger moves, it's a big bet and it takes time to plant those seeds and to let them grow and get the ultimate payoff."
—Matt Hultgren (12:16)

9. Quantifying the Halo Effect

(13:08 – 14:20)

• TV and other top-of-funnel investments have a halo effect—boosting other channels (paid search, direct mail, etc.).
• Incrementality tests and regional heaving-up can help reveal cross-channel synergies in spend effectiveness.

"We do have other instances...where campaign ran on TV for 12 months and what do you know, they were able to pull back on their Google budget for the first time in five years."
—Matt Hultgren (13:41)

10. Lightning Round: Tools & Models

(14:34 – 16:53)

• Favorite Method: Incrementality testing ("If a test fails, I just want to know it failed so I can move on. That’s the whole point.")
  —Matt Hultgren (15:06)
• MMM (Media Mix Modeling): Best for large, historic data sets; looks at shifts over long timeframes.
• Synthetic Controls: Enables lower-budget, rapid testing by splitting regions or groups for comparison.

11. Hardest Channel to Measure

(17:03 – 17:49)

• TV is the toughest due to its offline nature, investment size, and executive scrutiny.

"Not only is TV hard to measure, but it's just like the critical pressure to make sure you get it right."
—Matt Hultgren (17:16)

12. Overrated & Underrated Metrics

(18:00 – 20:01)

• Overrated: Obsessing over “new CAC”—it ignores the broader impact TV has on existing customers and total revenue.
• Underrated: Simple, proven correlations—like the link between TV spend and branded search, or share of voice and growth—remain deeply powerful.

"I just don't like metrics that say, hey, let's ignore this half of the picture because my boss told me this was the only thing to look at."
—Matt Hultgren (18:47)

13. AI in Attribution & the Future

(20:16 – 22:45)

• AI is rapidly making strides in attribution—enabling analysis across datasets and faster automation.
• Quality control is crucial: “Garbage in, garbage out”—bad data yields bad guidance.
• Data privacy and continued innovation will shape the next wave of marketing measurement.

"It's getting to a point now where we're starting to feel the speed...but quality control is 100% a concern. You have to make sure you have really tight constraints."
—Matt Hultgren (21:22)

14. The Importance of Design in Measurement

(22:51 – 23:37)

• Successful measurement demands intentional test design from the start.
• Marketers must set up frameworks prior to campaign launch to ensure their spend can actually be measured effectively.

"You can't just like run a test and then measure it after the fact. You have to go in intentionally."
—Matt Hultgren (22:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Measurement Myopia:
  "Everyone wants results now, and if you can't get it to me now, you're broken."
  —Matt Hultgren (03:26)

• Old School Still Works:
  "Some of the more old school...there's a reason why they were doing that way back in the day—it was working. Brands have been built over time, on TV."
  —Matt Hultgren (19:38)

• On Data and Life Learnings:
  "There is an element of sleep and your physical performance...clear correlation between sleep and performance in terms of running."
  —Matt Hultgren (23:51)

• Rob's Comic Relief:
  "CAC sounds like something you do when you have a hairball."
  —Rob Demar (19:02)

• The Group on Screen Time:
  "Go look at your screen time and look at averages too, because I was scary."
  —Elena Jasper (25:38)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:43 — Introduction to measurement challenges
• 03:06 — Biggest attribution misconception
• 04:21 — The planning problem in campaigns
• 05:33 — North Star metric and practical advice
• 07:04 — Balancing CAC with long-term brand
• 09:02 — Breaking down marketing team silos
• 10:12 — Using multiple models for measurement
• 11:27 — What short- and long-term metrics really mean
• 13:08 — Measuring the halo effect of TV
• 14:34 — Favorite measurement method & lightning round
• 17:03 — Hardest channels to measure
• 18:00 — Overrated and underrated metrics
• 20:16 — AI attribution tools: hype and caution
• 22:51 — The importance of intentional test design
• 23:51 — Fun: What’s the most surprising data insight about yourself?

Practical Takeaways

• Start by aligning goals and KPIs across teams in the planning stage; avoid fragmented or reactive measurement approaches.
• Choose a clear, realistic North Star metric for each channel and know what you intend to achieve.
• Use multiple models and approaches; accept ambiguity but aim to triangulate truth.
• Remember: "All models are wrong, some are useful."
• Recognize TV and top-of-funnel investments create value across channels, not just direct return.
• AI, automation, and attribution tools offer promise—provided the underlying data is well-governed and high-quality.

Tone

The conversation is friendly, candid, and practical, with genuine expertise and just the right balance of humor—making even technical measurement topics approachable and actionable.