← The Media Odyssey
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back to the Media Odyssey Podcast. That is Marianne Ren Shett.
- [00:21]
B
And that is Ivan Shaparo.
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A
And we've got a great episode this week. We've got two reports that we're going to dig into and analyze.
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B
We're.
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A
One of them is the Paramount investor deck that I got my hot little mitts on. And we're going to dig into what the assumptions they're making around that acquisition are. But the other is this great new report from Tubi called the Stream, which goes into audience predilections for how they want to stream content.
- [00:47]
B
Right now, I love that report. I read it every year. It's full of great insights and data on audience behavior in the U.S. yeah.
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A
And that's because Tubi works with the Harris Poll here, which is this great polling service in the U.S. the report's
- [01:00]
B
out now, but they gave us an advanced copy and we found a lot of real gems. Let's. Let's dive into it.
- [01:05]
A
Yeah. Yeah. One of my big takeaways was that 77% of respondents prefer watching on demand over scheduled linear streaming. That's something I've been saying for a long time, but this data point proves it. Audiences prefer on demand to linear. Three to one.
- [01:22]
B
Yeah, the on demand mindset, that was a good one. Personally, I was also fascinated by how streaming has really become a social activity. Three quarters of viewers say streaming together is a form of hassle. Quality time.
- [01:34]
A
Yeah. I was just discussing this with someone this past week who works in the kids content space. Co viewing for families. Family movie night has become this thing now.
- [01:43]
B
Yeah. Not just family, though. 52% of people say they watch with someone they don't live with. Friends. Other family lovers.
- [01:51]
A
We don't say lovers here. That's a French thing.
- [01:54]
B
Don't be a prude.
- [01:54]
A
I can't help it. But you're right. You're right. There's this amazing stat that I found hysterical. Sometimes data can be funny. Who knew? Almost two thirds of people, 61%, say they are more likely to date someone if they share the same movie and TV tastes.
- [02:11]
B
Maybe people should start putting their top 10 on their dating profiles.
- [02:15]
A
Definitely. Although I've never used a dating app, so I can't really speak to that. But almost one third of respondents. This is just. This is really. This cracked me up as I was reading it. Almost one third of respondents have broken up with the person they're dating because they had different tastes in TV or movie content.
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B
That's crazy.
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A
Yeah. It's not you. It's not me. It's your playlist.
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B
There's a lot more in this report than who people watch with, right?
- [02:41]
A
Yeah, totally. Last year I wrote this piece about Nielsen's gauge at the end of the year, and it showed that FAST and AVOD platforms on the whole, as a group, are now outperforming Netflix. In fact, they surpassed Netflix for all of fourth quarter 2025.
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B
Yeah. And the data actually shows you why.
- [02:57]
A
Yeah. 84% of audiences, 90% of Gen Z would readily watch ads if they're getting the streaming service for free.
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B
And 80% said they are canceling paid services and signing up for free services to fight that rising cost of streaming platforms.
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A
Yeah. And then there's something that I think is really interesting and that the industry really needs to focus on, which is 76% of viewers now say they'd rather watch a free platform with ads than pay for a premium paid platform that has an ad tier.
- [03:31]
B
That can be great news for the paid ad tiers.
- [03:34]
A
That's 100%. I think there's. That's why we're seeing churn rise for premium SVODs. Antenna's streaming report recently said that for all of 2025, all the paid streaming platforms lost 89% of the gross subscriber ads that they got last year. There's a reason why people canceled cable that the industry seems to be forgetting about. We kept raising the prices of these platforms and having ads. 2. Now SVOD is replicating that same problem that cable created. In fact, 67% of those surveyed said they'd skipped a new show because it required a paid subscription. And 65% of Gen Z say they have ended a paid subscription because of password crackdowns or because they're being forced to pay for an ad tier.
- [04:23]
B
And contrary to what a lot of people think, the data shows that audiences do not mind ads, especially if the ads are contextual. 78% say they prefer ads that cater to their interests.
- [04:36]
A
Absolutely. There's this other data point which I found interesting, and it reinforces my thesis about the convergence of creator content and mainstream media into the affinity economy. 77% of the people surveyed said they want creator content on mainstream streaming platforms right alongside movies and television, not just on social media.
- [04:59]
B
Yeah, that really. We really dug into that when we had Tubies GM of creator Rich Bloom a few months back. Go check that out.
- [05:06]
A
Yeah. When he was on the pod, he talked about people skipping between mainstream content and creator content. It's. It's really interesting. Anyway, the stream, this new report from Tubi and Harris Pauling is an absolute must read if you're in the content business, the streaming business, the platform business, advertising business at all. It's up online and the link is in our show notes wherever you're listening to this or watching it.
- [05:27]
B
And it's totally free.
- [05:28]
A
So go download and digest it and let us know in the comments what you think, what data points you found. Interesting.
- [05:34]
B
Okay cool. Time to go back to Paramount. Let's check out that investment deck you got your hands on. The investment deck that you know, the Ellison family is you know, showcasing around. Can you tell us more about that?
- [05:48]
A
Yeah. So I don't know why there's an investor deck. I mean I theoretically get it but apparently the Ellison family is trotting out an investor deck around to investors to justify this $110 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, Disco Bros. Probably to placate some of the investors. And I want to talk about who those investors are in a second. But friend of the pod, Wim Ponett sent me the deck and he had run some analysis and then I did some analysis on top of that and it just when you look at this it looks like the dumbest move in the history of business. There's just no. Well, do you want me, I'll show you the deck.
- [06:26]
B
Yeah, sure.
- [06:26]
A
Or the analysis that we put together and you can see what these assumptions are. And you know everybody makes assumptions, right? You know, when they make investments or they make business cases inside these corporations, everybody puts together a deck to project what's going to happen. And usually someone in the room goes well, is this realistic? Right. Well here's, here's the analysis on the investor deck. So Wim ran an analysis to look at the assumptions and what the investment assumptions are is that starting this year there's going to be this major climb in revenues from $66 billion last year to $84 billion in 2030. Now the growth is not necessarily crazy town if anything indicated that they were on a growth trajectory up until this point. But both companies have been losing revenue growth year after year after year. So if you look at 23 through 25, you can see that combined companies revenue went from $71 billion to $66 billion. And this has not been a rough period of time in the media ecosystem. Right. Other companies have had revenue growth. These companies, mostly because they keep cutting down to the bone frankly and don't have great strategies have been seeing their revenue shrink year after year after year. And then suddenly, magically this year the combined entity will turn that all around. And point up and to the right. When you go to ebitda, you can see that over the last three years that the combined earnings or profits from these companies have been flat or down. And now suddenly, and it's not a rocket ship to the moon, but it is growth versus either flat or down. And once again, I, I just don't see anything in what David Ellison has said. And I'm wondering whether you have that shows a strategy that's going to turn this all around. Especially when you look at the fact that they're going to make these massive cuts. And so these are the synergies projected. They're going to cut $8 billion in tech, they're going to cut 6, $6 billion in business services. What they say is that's a firing of agencies, that's a firing of external partners. They're going to sell $4 billion in real estate and then these other things like enterprise resource planning. So this is really just, we're going to optimize the company to the tune of $3 billion over the next five years. This is a lot of cutting. But what he's also saying outside, out the other side of his mouth is we're not going to do massive layoffs. This doesn't incorporate massive layoffs. And I just, to me that all defies business logic. I don't understand how you're going to go from flat EBITDA to growth ebitda. I don't understand specifically. Both of these companies have had real problems in revenue generation, especially when you consider how much of their revenue is tied to old school cable distribution. Right? So CNN's revenues alone have been plummeting both in ad sales and in distribution. And that's going to be true for every channel they own. Meanwhile, HBO Max, while it's a good service, is terrible at selling advertising. Their subscription revenues are okay, but they're still not a profitable business. Paramount plus has been fine. Pluto has not really been doing well at all. And they're going to magically turn this all around in one year to start reversing all these trends. This, to me, when you look at all of this and you look at other people's reaction to this. So bank of America announced this week that they're cutting their rating of Paramount stock from a buy at $13 down to a sell at $11. I think they're agreeing with what I'm saying here, which is what the fuck are you actually thinking? Spending $110 billion, there's going to be 80 plus billion dollars in debt on this business after they merge these two companies, I just. It doesn't make any sense unless there are other reasons you're making this move.
- [11:07]
B
Unless there's also a lot of, you know, outside money coming. Because how do you return to growth by just cutting right. You're supposed to be investing. Can I entertain you with a quote? I think you're gonna love it because it's coming from Jerry Cardinal. Right.
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A
I was gonna go to that, too. So that's a great minds thing. Go for it. Yes.
- [11:29]
B
Yeah. Redbird Capital. And he said. And when I heard it, I was like, you must be choking just hearing this. It's not deal jockeys playing spreadsheet material. Math.
- [11:40]
A
It's not. Is that. What. And. And then in his. In the next breath, someone. The reporter he was, was being interviewed at this point. He said, they were asked, like, where's the money coming from? Is it coming from Saudi Arabia? Now, there are rumors that a big chunk of this is going to come from Tencent, so the Chinese government. And he was asked point blank, is the money coming from Saudi Arabia? Is the money coming from China? And his answer was, pay no attention to.
- [12:10]
B
He said something fantastic. He said, we're in a global economy. Really.
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A
We should be taking
- [12:21]
B
anything that doesn't justify that you should go get money, you know, regardless of where it's coming from, without doing the due diligence that's in the background. It's just insane. He was very dodgy when he. I was surprised that he let himself being interviewed like that, because that was a tricky one.
- [12:40]
A
What the point is, when you listen to him avoid all these questions, and then you listen to Ellison really shoveling bullshit about the journalistic independence of cnn, because we can see what he's going to do to cnn, because he's doing it now to CBS News with his puppet Barry Weiss. This is about two things. This is about Larry Ellison and the Saudi government trying to placate the toddler in the White House. And it's about David Ellison and the folks at Redbird, including Cardinal and Jeff Zucker, proving how big their penises are. Like, this is just about dick swinging. That is. This is about nothing else. It was the same reason Ted Sarandos wanted Warner Brothers Disco Bros. It's because they just. They want to be moguls. No, there's not a real business. Right. I have yet to hear anyone say, here's the strategy. Here's the. Here's the. This is how we're going to go from shrinking ice cubes. He says, He's. Ellison says they're going to go from. They're going to double the output of motion pictures. Do you know how long it takes to develop films? They're going to get to 30 films per year. That's just not logical.
- [13:59]
B
Yeah. Speaking about this, this deck you saw, they had put out a website in this battle to, to get Warner Bros. Right, which was called stronger Hollywood.com and in there, you had, you had the pitch right to the WBD shareholders. It's not going into, you know, a lot of details like you. But what was striking to your point about the strategy, the entire focus of the presentation, like 3/4 of it is our offer is higher than Netflix. There's more money. It's just about the money.
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A
There's like no bigger than Ted's. That's the entire thing. And I hate to be so crass, actually I don't. But this is what's destroying Hollywood right now. And then you look at what's happening in reaction to this. So all the unions are coming out against this. It's only a moment in time. I don't know if you've heard anything about the EU coming out against this, but they're gonna come out hard against this. The Attorney General of the state of California is all in against this. And there's only a moments until he's joined by the attorneys general of Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, Louisiana, all of these states, Connecticut, New Jersey, who have created tax credits specifically to help the film industry produce more film. And now this is coming along and it's going to destroy jobs. It's going to destroy, frankly, the motion picture industry as we know it today. Now, the motion picture industry needs some adjusting, let's be honest. But this ain't the solution.
- [15:40]
B
Yeah, that's what he was saying. Jerry Cardinal saying that essentially, you know, the companies were too fat. And then he was saying he was not going to cut off a lot of, you know, ad counts. They said that. He said they would not sell. I know how they said they would not sell the two lots. They would keep both. But you're saying that they're supposed to make 4 billion.
- [16:03]
A
$4 billion. What are they selling? They don't own 1515 Broadway. They don't own that building. They can't sell that building. They don't own Hudson Yards. They can't sell that building. So the only two pieces of property that they actually own are. You're right, those two lots, but they're not going to sell them.
- [16:23]
B
Well, that's what he said.
- [16:24]
A
I don't know, it doesn't make any sense. Now let's, let's took, because I do think there's going to be a massive pushback in the eu. And you had put together a bunch of analysis on the, on the overlap and why this is. I mean, you've actually found some reasons why this might work in Europe. But then there's a ton of reasons, I think, that you found that, you know, why the, why the regulators, you know, would, I think, justifiably push back against this. So here, here are your, your images that you created and you posted some of this on LinkedIn. Here's the overlap that you found between HBO Max and Showtime. And you're so much more conversant in this. Can you explain this slide?
- [17:07]
B
All right, so one thing that wasn't discussed and one of the reasons being that it has no traction in the US because it's a very European focused topic, is what happen skyshowtime. And skyshowtime is a JV between Paramount and Comcast. The question, of course, is, you know, what happens to it? Because again, those two services cater to pretty much the same audience. They are available in the same market. So we're looking at 22 markets where both Skyshowtime and HBO are in Europe. And you will notice that overlap. Actually, it's interesting to see that Skyshowtime really stayed clear of those big Western European markets, EU5 markets. The reason being that in those markets, the brand that leads for Paramount is Paramount. So to me, skyshotime is gone. This JV is gone. We've spoken about Brian Robert from Comcast. He's not into investing in Europe. He's more into divesting what he has in Europe, whether that's selling sky, Germany to RTL, etc. So I think this service will be, will be gone. So in a way, this merger is just taking out a competitor. That's number one. Now, if you take a look at HBO Max, and that's the next slide against Paramount, it's a bit of a thing for me. It's not that I'm so hung up on the HBO Max brand or the HBO brand, It's more why would you decide to make Paramount the, you know, St. Paul, the umbrella brand, right. When you've been in seven markets in Europe and HBO Max has been in, you know, a total of 34 markets in Europe. Right. And so that's kind of number one strategy mistake for me from Allison saying that, you know, HBO would keep operating, you know, independently, you know, as a Studio, and then it would become a brand, you know, within Paramount. So HBO has been working hard to make headway in those markets. Why are you, you know, suddenly offering a new brand to those markets? And especially at this time in 2026, when you know you're essentially a late entrant, streaming, right. Everyone has Netflix prime, et cetera. So you really need to work on those assets instead of starting from scratch. So this thing about making synergies, they're saying there's going to be one tech stack, of course, and honestly, I don't know the two, but I would, I would think that someone who's operating in 34 markets is better suited to be the winning tech stack than one that has been in 4. 7. Sorry.
- [19:48]
A
Yeah, I. I want to make a couple points. First, I want to start. If you want to see all the slides that we're presenting, whether it's the financial slides I've been presenting or these slides Marian's been talking about, go to our substacks or go to the YouTube channel and watch this instead of listening to it. Second of all, yeah, it just feels, especially when it comes to the European markets, which is actually where probably the majority of the opportunity is for this merger, if it happens. It. It sounds like Ellison's just shooting from the hip. It sounds like he's making up answers depending on the day of the week and who he's talking to. It does not sound like there's a sound strategy. And I think part of that is these enterprises, operations in Europe have been kind of halting and stop and starting. You know, HBO is not really in any of the big countries. They're just now launching in the, in the big five. And Paramount plus, which has been operating here, it's been halting like their investments have been cut in many cases, they're winnowing down. And then I've asked both teams and they, by the way, if you work at Paramount or you work at HBO Max, please keep sending me DMs and telling me I'm right or tell me when I'm wrong. But I've talked to people at Paramount and I've talked to people at Disco Bros. And they both say that the tech stacks at both companies suck eggs, that they're terrible tech stacks. They're held together with chewing gum and band aids. They have no real central tech stack that's worth anything. And that, you know, they're, they're really behind the eight ball when it comes to their, to their integration with regards to, like, Pluto and Paramount plus like don't integrate very well. Why? That doesn't make any sense. And so in my mind, this is going to be an epic disaster. Even if you combine tech stocks, that's going to be a nightmare. And that's one of the reasons why bank of America downgraded the Paramount stock is they said the integration is going to take years. Years. There's not. You're not going to find these synergies, you're not going to find these optimizations for years. And that's accurate. Maybe you'll get to growth, but it's going to be the end of the decade before you start to see the upside to, to this combination. But even if you do connect these two tech stacks, as you just demonstrated very beautifully, you're still, if you're going to keep both brands, that's twice the marketing. Yeah, you're not saving any money.
- [22:20]
B
I think one brand is ultimately going to disappear or it's going to become what we've seen with Disney, where Disney is the brand and then everyone else is a corner, including udu, which we've seen appear in Europe, which means nothing to us. So I just don't understand that move. I get it in the us don't get it here year. And yeah. Which one has more gravitas. It matters which one, you know, has been, you know, in out of homes, et cetera. It's hbo, it's not Paramount. And about Pluto, I wanted to do something about Pluto because I think that. So HBO is very premium, you know, always had that very pay TV feel and therefore never really did anything within, you know, ad supported streaming. And, and I think there's a great opportunity there. The same way that Pluto, when they got acquired by Paramount, they managed to mint the library. And I think they will be able to do the same provided that they go dig up what makes sense. Meaning that there's a lot of HBO content that isn't fit for a free streaming. Fast channel consumption on demand. Yeah, but fast, not so much. You don't want to see, you know, Westworld, you know, fast channel. I don't think that has any potential. But. So what would be interesting is, would this be the opportunity where they go and merge another tech stack. I don't know if Pluto runs on Paramount plus or else let's assume it does. But it would make so much sense to have Pluto as the front porch and then, you know, everything premium with ads. Because you and I have been saying that anyway. So that would be. I think that would be. And especially you said it at the top, Pluto has been struggling. It showed. Right. We did this episode on the earnings. So I think that would be having a more, you know, 360 approach would be, would be a great win. But you know, again, you know, are they going to be able to be this, you know, destination every night? Because that's what they're fighting for. That's, that's the pitch, right? To be one of those top five companies that are this, you know, instant click every night when we switch TV on.
- [24:38]
A
Yeah. And, and, and you know, I will remind you, I think there's an, a huge opportunity around the Discovery holdings. So hgtv, Discovery, Animal Planet, all that nonfiction kind of what we call video wallpaper to a certain extent. You know, all the Property Brothers, all that stuff. Very low cost but very high viewership. HGTV has defied gravity on cable in the United States in a way that very few other channels has been able to. So I think that stuff leaning into fast to a certain extent. But as we talked about at the top of this episode, people don't want linear programming. I'm sorry, unless it's live sports or unless it's news or unless it's like maybe traders and you know, really kind of edgier seat cliffhangery stuff. Live television is dead. Linear television is dead. More than in the US Maybe. Yeah. Even when you survey humans, they'd rather choose their programming themselves than be forced a linear feed that's been scheduled by someone else. Again, there, there are exceptions to that. Traders being a really good example to that. Love island is another good example to that. But I don't think that, you know, leaning into linear schedule programming for maybe for old people, but certainly not for people under the age of 50. Now talking about this is the third point I would make talking about the sports. You, you think, and I think you've seen there's a major opportunity here for both companies in sport because Warner has a massive holdings in sports in Europe that they don't have here in the United States. So I think people in America, including myself, go, oh, Warner Brothers, you know, Disco Bros. They lost the sports fight here. But that's not true in Europe, is it?
- [26:29]
B
No, no, it's not. They were actually stronger in Europe when they were going through losing the NBA. They actually, well, already had a lot of great tier one sports in the region and they've kept, you know, kind of, they've been able to invest some more and, and so did Paramount. Right. One of the first new latest move of Paramount after the, the Merger with guidance was to go after the Champions League in the uk, Germany and Ireland. That's a biggie, right? So that's city clubs competing, you know, at a, at a European level. And yeah, we've, we're right in the midst of, of this right now. It is a very strong asset for, for Paramount. And so if you look at what they have now, they would have combined. You have the Olympics until 2032. They have a lot of tennis, you know, all of the major tournaments, they have all the major cycling tours, they have winter sports, and again, you know, they have football, thanks to that deal with Paramount. So I think, you know, what you've shown us at the beginning where, you know, it's hard to see how, you know, one plus one equals two. You see here how the two can actually click and make this a bigger destination and even more so if you compare with fellow competitors in the region. Right. So Netflix has barely any in Europe, or when they do, it's very US focused. You know, we don't care about, you know, your American football, wwe. Yes, but it's not mainstream. And so those are really a difference. Disney has been investing a little in the region, but there's not much left to, to grab. And Amazon, they've been very, you know, it's a bit of, yeah, we're going to invest and then they go back and forth. So they're going to be a great premium sports destination in Europe. And so that could be, I think, a draw for European consumers.
- [28:30]
A
So, so. And when you look at this slide, again, if you're, if you're listening, you know, take a trip over to either one of our substacks. All this stuff will be there. Or look at the YouTube channel. When you look at this, you can see, like, Paramount in the US is really the sports play. And a lot of these rights in, in the EU rest under the Warner Brothers. So there's a really complementary mix here. Two points I want to make. One's a point and the other's a question for you. The first is this shit's going to get more expensive every year. Like Amazon, Disney, Apple, Netflix, they're all bidding up the sports rights. Atrocious. I mean, over the last couple years, it's up 300%. The NBA, I mean, not to compliment Zaslav, but he backed out of the NBA bidding. And it seems by a lot of analysts assessment that everybody overpaid for the NBA. It's just not worth the $75 billion deal. So if sports is a major play, this is Going to get that again goes to the EBITDA projections that they're making. Maybe you'll generate more revenue by having more sports, but your profit margin is going to get eaten away by paying more and more and more every year. Now, my question, and this isn't about this merger, Netflix is now free, right? They don't, they're not bound by this stupid acquisition jaunt that Ted Sarandos went on and they've got $3 billion from Paramount that they just got burning a hole in their pocket. Do you think buying. I was part of an article that Adweek did about what should Netflix buy now? And Dazn came up. Do you think Netflix goes after Dazone now that they've got $3 billion in cash sitting in a piggy bank in Ted's office?
- [30:17]
B
That could make sense. You know how when the Zone launched, it was said to be, it was subtitled the Netflix of Sports.
- [30:23]
A
Right.
- [30:24]
B
So, yeah, I could see that. Because the challenge, right, for Netflix is everyone is locking in rights. So even if they want to invest more in sports, those deals are long and everything is locked for the next five to eight years on major, major, major tier one sports. So they can go niche, right. And be very local, et cetera. But that does really, that doesn't really look like Netflix. So the Zone would be an amazing, an amazing. Get that. That would make sense. The only thing is that the reason why Ted and team didn't want to be in live sports is exactly what you were saying. The price keep increasing. Except that consumers are not always following, right? And we've seen this with Dazn, which has been buying rights. So they did it in France, they did it in Belgium, and then they put a price tag to the consumer and the consumer says, thanks, but no thanks. Then the Zone goes back and says to the leagues, I want, I want out. I went out of my contract. And they did that in those two countries recently, which is, I, I'm not sure Netflix would be buying. They would be buying a headache. But, you know, could they fix it perhaps? Don't know. But that's, that's a good idea.
- [31:41]
A
And they're. And since they backed out and again, I was yelling out as loud as I could that this was a terrible deal for Netflix. And the market agrees because they drove the stock down while the bidding was happening. And then since they got out, their stock has rebounded dramatically. They're back $400 billion. They, they're headed back to the $500 billion valuation mark. So they have more capital on hand and less debt. And Dazn, what would it cost? About. Probably about three or four billion dollars. Like, you can't really charge much more for something that's bleeding cash like that. But their Russian oligarch owner is probably a little frustrated with as much capital as Les has to keep putting into that enterprise. So getting out now and selling to Netflix makes him look like a winner, and it stops the bleeding of his bank account at a time when I'm sure his bank account is under a little bit of pressure for global political reasons. So, yeah, I think it'd be interesting to see what happens. Sports in Europe. Sports in America is kind of almost predictable on a cycle, but sports in Europe, because of the country by country rights, it's not like Texas has a set of sports rights and New York has a different set of sports rights. It's. It's national, but that's not true in the European Union. This is going to be one of the most fascinating components to track over the next year what happens to all these leagues. Right. And the Olympics. You took a hard look at the cinema. Now I want to go to that slide. You know, the. The European box office is actually somewhat interesting compared to the U.S. first of all, I think Europeans like cinema more than. Than Americans do. They like actually going to the theater. I think part of the reason is European movie theaters are great and American movie theaters are awful. They're just terrible experiences. But when I show this chart, and again, you can see this on YouTube or our substacks. What, what are you meaning to show here with regards to these slides on the, on the cinema attendance and box office?
- [33:42]
B
We had initial numbers, right? The full numbers will get in May during the. The cam film festival. That's when they do, you know, the full, full 2025, the full year results. Right. But we're starting to see some numbers. And so we're down 5.5% when it comes to, you know, ticket sales, but, you know, stable in terms of revenue figures. And the reason being that, you know, aha. Price of tickets went up. Right. So it's. It's an okay year. But the reason why I wanted to show this is that, you know, close to in between, it depends of the year. But, you know, let's say, you know, let's. Let's go ballpark around 70% of the box office in Europe is actually made of US Movies. We're very reliant on how good you guys are doing. Right. So in 2024, it was a bit more balanced, I think. It was like 63 US and 33 European and the rest, I guess.
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A
Yeah. And 2024 in American movie making was not a great year.
- [34:49]
B
Yeah, exactly. And so I think let's see what happens this year. 2025 wasn't great for you guys, which means it's not great for us in terms of attendance. And that means that when you're not doing great, unless we have our own great, you know, local hits, well, we have a year like this where the attendance is down. So there's a lot of concern coming out of this year on that front. Although we're starting to see some estimates and you know, it's said that, you know, we'll be returning to growth, so estimated to generate $10 billion next year, a 7% increase. But of course, when you put this in light of, you know, this deal where Paramount, WBD are saying we're going to keep, you know, the way it was before, yes, we're going to do 30 movies a year. And then you are starting to see organizations, cinema organizations throughout Europe saying, and this could be something that the EU pays attention to, maybe a bit more than streaming perhaps. But let's see, they're going to be saying, oh, are they going to keep good on that promise? And they're going to look at what happened with Disney and Fox and I don't know exactly what happens in the U.S. but what we've seen is you used to have, I think 25, Fox was like, you know, very prolific. 25 movies. Disney never had that many. Maybe 15 last year combined. 19. Right. So who says 30 is even possible? So everyone is bracing themselves for less movies, less American movies. But that means that we're going to, we could have a shit show, let me use that word of yours, shit show year years to come. Because we're over reliant on you guys. So that was, that was kind of the idea behind that, that slide. And I think it's going to be very much talked about in the next few months because we're going to have festival season kicking off.
- [36:48]
A
Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. You know, it's. I'm getting inundated with people from the film industry. Ted Hope, as recently as yesterday saying, please help, you know, spread the word about how bad this is going to be for the film industry. And despite that, you know, attendance is down around the world. You're right. We keep driving up the price of tickets and that saves the revenue numbers. But despite the fact that attendance in theaters is down, people love movies. Yeah, they absolutely they, it's a huge point of conversation. It's a very family oriented activity here in the United States. And the fact that this seems to be a torpedo headed at the heart of the cinema industry worldwide, I think you're going to see tremendous pushback again, especially from attorneys general here in the United States where states have created tax credits to help the film industry and then especially in Europe where cinema is, you know, it's considered a national treasure in each one of these countries. And so I, I think your resistance is going to be incredibly high. And then you have the CNN of it all. You know, the, the fact that one of the largest news organizations on the planet earth is now going to be controlled by this Nepo baby and this anti woke substack writer. And we're both substack writers. So you know, respect that. She got paid $150 million for her newsletter, but she's not a journalist and she clearly doesn't give a shit about journalism. The way she's treating 60 minutes there, there is a chill, an absolute chill coming over the journalistic world around the globe about the effect that this is going to have on, you know, frankly, just news and information and press freedom. And you know, America is now falling off of the highest rated democracy list on the planet earth because of its treatment of journalists and its treatment of the press.
- [38:59]
B
Yeah, absolutely, completely, completely agree with you. It's been a fascinating episode. I think there's a lot going on right now. We've had those two amazing reports actually. One is full of insights to build a strategy. The other one, we're questioning whether there's a strategy to it.
- [39:19]
A
Yeah, that's right. The tubi, the stream report. Thank you to them for giving us access to that early so we could dive into it. Go check that out. The link's in the show notes here. You've got a tremendous amount of information if you are either a producer or a platform provider. I think the report shows where consumers are headed and what their predilections are for how they consume streaming content. Both from, you know, the perspective of combining creator content and mainstream content on the same platform, but also how they watch together. In fact, people are breaking up with their significant others because they can't share a taste set. But the family movie time is now a thing and so catering to that, but also the fact that the on demand mindset is truly implanted in the minds of the consumers now. I think that's clearly evident from this report. Tons of insights to drive your business. So go check that out.
- [40:16]
B
Yeah. Wherever you're listening to this podcast, go check out for the link. It's going to be on our substack as well. And go download, you know, our link to this report.
- [40:25]
A
So this was a great episode. I'm coming to you from my new office finally. Which is still unfinished, but, yeah, I'll see you next week.
- [40:34]
B
See you next week,
- [40:38]
A
Sam.