The New Yorker Radio Hour

Episode: At the Brink with North Korea
Date: September 22, 2017
Host: David Remnick
Guests: Evan Osnos (New Yorker staff writer), Amanda Petrusich (staff writer/music critic)
Main Theme: Exploring the escalating tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, the likelihood of military conflict, and insight from on-the-ground reporting in Pyongyang.

Episode Overview

This episode examines the rising brinkmanship between North Korea and the United States during a tense period in 2017. Host David Remnick speaks with Evan Osnos, who recently returned from reporting in both Washington and Pyongyang, to discuss the realities of potential conflict, the logic of North Korean leadership, where diplomacy stands, and what ordinary North Koreans think. The second segment pivots to lighter fare, featuring Amanda Petrusich on pop culture and travel.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Threat and Fantasy of War

• Scale of Potential Catastrophe (01:29):
  • Osnos details studies showing tens of thousands could die on the first day of warfare, even with conventional weapons.
  • “In the first day, 65,000 people would be killed and there would be tens of thousands more each of the days that followed. And that's just with conventional weapons.” – Evan Osnos (01:40)
  • North Korea also has chemical, biological, and up to 60 nuclear warheads, capable of striking South Korea, Japan, and possibly beyond.
• The “Military Option” Myth (02:39):
  • Both the Obama and Trump administrations have evaluated military options; Obama concluded casualties were unavoidable, Trump officials claim options exist but lack evidence or transparency.
  • “The idea that there would be a quick and simple solution is one of the dangerous myths of this process.” – Evan Osnos (03:00)
  • Steve Bannon (quoted by Osnos) acknowledged: “there is no military option here. They've got us.” (03:30)

2. Diplomatic Prospects and the U.S. Strategy

• Pressure vs. Engagement (04:21):
  • U.S. is practicing “maximum pressure”—sanctions and threats—while leaving a door open for engagement.
  • The Trump administration has shifted its threshold for talks from demanding denuclearization to a reduction in hostilities.
  • “We will only sit down at the table if the hostilities subside, which is a much lower level of expectation.” – Evan Osnos (05:50)
• Timing and North Korean Leverage (05:12):
  • North Koreans see continued stalling as strengthening their bargaining position.
  • “From North Korea's perspective, it's actually working what they're doing, and that's dangerous...” – Evan Osnos (05:55)
• Likelihood of Negotiation (06:23):
  • Both Osnos and Remnick agree negotiation is probable but fraught with risk.

3. Rhetoric, Psychology, and the View from Pyongyang

• “Being Played” by Kim Jong Un (07:05):
  • Hillary Clinton: “President Trump is being played by Kim Jong Un.” Osnos partially agrees, warning that erratic rhetoric undermines U.S. credibility.
  • “It is sending a very confusing message to the North Koreans. For one thing, it makes us look unserious in the world ... big powers are not supposed to project craziness.” – Evan Osnos (07:30)
• How North Korean Officials Interpret America (08:24):
  • Osnos shares anecdotes about North Korean minders trying to decipher U.S. politics, disbelieving the apparent instability and unpredictability of Trump.
  • “They're really struggling with the idea that the Trump that they see and read about is the full picture. He's so at odds with everything that they've come to understand about American power...” – Evan Osnos (09:55)

4. North Korea’s Nuclear Culture and Fatalism

• Nuclear Narrative in Daily Life (11:02):
  • In contrast to China, North Koreans openly discuss nuclear weapons as part of their identity and survival.
  • “It is impossible to understand why North Korea talks about nuclear weapons and is sort of seemingly obsessed with them without appreciating their history.” – Evan Osnos (11:05)
  • North Korea frames its nuclear program as essential to its survival, not merely a bargaining chip.
• Not a Suicidal Cult (12:13):
  • Osnos concludes the regime is not suicidal, but nuclear possession is central to its security doctrine.

5. Osnos’s Pyongyang Experience

• Unexpected Candidness of Officials (12:43):
  • Though interviews were staged, ordinary officials were surprisingly open and eager to discuss U.S. developments, including closely following Trump on Twitter.
• Message to the West (13:39):
  • “Their most important message to me was that they are never giving up their nuclear weapons.” – Evan Osnos (13:40)
  • Kim Jong Un sees nuclear capacity as foundational to regime survival.

6. The Inevitable Diplomatic Settlement

• Prediction for the Future (14:37):
  • Osnos predicts eventual diplomacy with the U.S. coexisting with a nuclear North Korea.
  • “We will come to coexist, come to live with North Korea's capability, its nuclear threat, much the way that we lived with the Soviets...” – Evan Osnos (15:53)
• Political Ramifications for the U.S. (15:06):
  • This path may be politically difficult for Trump, but is the realistic outcome.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the scale of war:
  “The war, if it ever happened between North Korea and the United States today would be a horror.” – Evan Osnos (01:29)

• On military options:
  “There is no military option here. They've got us.” – Steve Bannon, quoted by Evan Osnos (03:30)

• On credibility:
  “Big powers are not supposed to project craziness.” – Evan Osnos (07:36)

• On North Korean identity:
  “It stopped being a bargaining chip a few years ago. It is now actually a part of their self definition.” – Evan Osnos (14:12)

• On North Korea’s intentions:
  “They are never giving up their nuclear weapons.” – Evan Osnos (13:40)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening/context: 00:24 – 01:29
• Consequences of war: 01:29 – 02:39
• Military option debate: 02:39 – 04:05
• International diplomacy and pressure: 04:05 – 06:23
• Missile testing and Trump's rhetoric: 06:23 – 08:24
• North Korean confusion about U.S. politics: 08:24 – 10:46
• Nuclear culture in North Korea: 10:46 – 12:13
• On-the-ground reporting surprises: 12:13 – 13:34
• Will North Korea denuclearize? 13:34 – 14:37
• Future outlook and Trump’s political dilemma: 14:37 – 16:25

Additional Segment: Amanda Petrusich’s Picks

(NOTE: This segment shifts away from North Korea discussion.)

• Culture picks: Amanda Petrusich shares recommendations that include:
  • TV: Season 1 of Jackass (17:17 – 18:34)
  • Travel: Discusses “High Albania” by Edith Durham and her own travels (18:48 – 19:57)
  • Music: The War on Drugs' “A Deeper Understanding” (20:20 – 21:41)

Episode Tone and Style

This episode delivers a sense of urgency and gravity, reflective of the escalating situation in North Korea in 2017, interspersed with personal anecdotes and moments of dry humor between Osnos and Remnick. The reporting is deeply informed, but cautious about prediction and heavy on insight from firsthand experience.