The New Yorker Radio Hour
Diplomacy on the Rocks in Iran and North Korea
Date: May 18, 2018
Host: David Remnick
Guests: Wendy Sherman, Susan Glasser, Victor Cha, Evan Osnos

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by David Remnick, explores two major diplomatic crises at pivotal moments in U.S. foreign policy: the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the prospects for upcoming negotiations with North Korea. Through interviews with architect of the Iran deal Wendy Sherman and North Korea expert Victor Cha, the show provides deep insight into the intricacies and consequences of high-stakes diplomacy with adversarial nations.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Iran Nuclear Deal: Inside the Negotiation and Fallout

Participants:

• Susan Glasser (Interviewer, New Yorker staff writer)
• Wendy Sherman (Former lead negotiator, U.S. Iran deal)

The Making of the Deal

• Sherman highlights the complexity and breadth of the negotiation, involving not just Iran, but also U.S. Congress members, think tanks, interagency colleagues, Israel, Gulf states, and global stakeholders.

  "I tease that I negotiated inside the administration... with Israel, with the Gulf states, with everybody who had a stake in Iranian oil, Iranian business in the world. And, oh, yeah, occasionally I negotiated with Iran." — Wendy Sherman [02:51]

• Both Sherman and John Kerry were prepared multiple times to walk away from the talks to ensure the best possible outcome.

• The final agreement was extensive: "This deal is 110 pages long. It's filled with technical details..." [06:48]

Domestic and International Challenges

• The deal faced intense domestic opposition, even mid-negotiation, with actions such as Senator Tom Cotton’s public letter undercutting Sherman’s authority.

• The Iranian negotiators frequently questioned the deal's durability, given the volatile U.S. politics.

  "My Iranian counterparts would constantly say to me, how do we know you won't undo the deal?... The deal has to be as good as it possibly can be. So it is durable and sustainable." — Wendy Sherman [04:25]

• On whether America can be trusted:

  "We are as good as our word, as our politics allow us to be. And the same is true for Iran." — Wendy Sherman [04:52]

Criticism of the Deal’s Scope

• Critics, especially within the Trump administration, claimed the deal was flawed for not covering ballistic missiles or regional Iranian behavior.
• Sherman argues bringing more issues onto the table would have resulted in dangerous tradeoffs, diluting the agreement's primary focus:

  "If you had them all on the table, what it might mean is Iran would say, okay, I'll do something over here on ballistic missiles. But that means I want to keep more centrifuges... So you're negotiating against yourself on the thing that matters the most, and that is Iran never being able to obtain a nuclear weapon." — Wendy Sherman [07:15]

European Response and Risks Ahead

• European allies remain committed to salvaging the deal, but Sherman is skeptical about success without U.S. participation.
• Sherman expresses deep concern that the U.S. withdrawal could escalate tensions and even lead to war:

  "...it appears that the President may lead us down a path toward conflict with Iran. War that is not a good outcome for the United States." — Wendy Sherman [08:33]

Unique Moments and Personal Anecdotes

• Sherman recounts breaking her nose in Vienna during negotiations, underscoring the stress and chaos of high-stakes diplomacy:

  "I went smack into that glass door. Blood all over the place... I put the ice pack on... had the conference call with Secretary Kerry. He didn't find out about this till months later. I went to... a doctor in Vienna. He walked out and said in English, 'shit happens.'" — Wendy Sherman [05:14]

Continued Dialogue with Iranian Officials

• Sherman maintains contact with key Iranian figures post-deal, advocating for U.S. security interests.
• She notes the politicization of diplomacy in the U.S. public sphere.

2. The North Korea Gambit: Risks and Realities

Participants:

• Evan Osnos (Interviewer, New Yorker journalist)
• Victor Cha (Former NSC official, North Korea expert)

Setting the Scene

• The scheduled summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un followed a year of provocations and insults, but talks are under threat as North Korea cancels pre-summit talks with the South amid U.S. military drills.

Understanding North Korean Tactics

• Victor Cha interprets North Korean moves as strategic, using U.S.-South Korean exercises to apply pressure:

  “...they've canceled a process related inter-Korean meeting, which is really trying, I think, to lay down a marker that these military exercises are on the negotiating table as far as the North Koreans are concerned.” — Victor Cha [16:20]

• Economic sanctions are biting, fostering a new market mentality inside North Korea, which may be motivating Kim Jong Un to negotiate.

  “There is no denying that the market has taken over in North Korea. And that market mentality has created a desire both for the government and the people to do better.” — Victor Cha [16:59]

• The North Korean regime justifies shifting from threats to negotiations as a sign of strength, not weakness.

The Challenge of Denuclearization

• Total denuclearization is described as practically impossible to verify due to North Korea's concealment capabilities:

  “This is a country with thousands of miles of underground tunnels... if they have a dozen bombs hiding somewhere 50 miles underground... it's going to be very hard to know that.” — Victor Cha [18:28]

• Trump administration is unlikely to accept a deal allowing North Korea to retain any nuclear arsenal, a position reinforced by walking away from the Iran deal.

Lessons from the Iran Deal

• North Korea, Cha contends, sees the Iran withdrawal as evidence that U.S. deals may not outlast individual administrations, deepening their skepticism:

  “The last two deals that they negotiated with the United States, in both cases, administrations changed. These agreements sort of fell apart.” — Victor Cha [20:11]

Regional Fears and Diplomatic Tightrope

• There’s anxiety in Asia that Trump, eager for a deal, might compromise alliances or U.S. security posture.

  “I do sense that there is some concern about that... our policy with our allies has to dictate our North Korea policy. So yeah, I do sense some concern in the region about that.” — Victor Cha [21:27]

• China’s recent engagement with North Korea is interpreted as a sign of caution and an effort to assert influence.

Prospects for the Trump-Kim Summit

• Key metrics of success for the summit:
  • Concrete action on the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program.
  • A meaningful peace declaration for the Korean peninsula (requiring U.S. and Chinese participation).
  • Definitive North Korean nuclear commitment.

  “On the one hand, it could lead to something fantastic. On the other hand, it could collapse spectacularly.” — Victor Cha [22:21]

3. Comparative Insights: Diplomacy Styles

• Sherman contrasts the Iranian and North Korean diplomatic approaches:

  "North Korea's approach... is pretty transactional... Iran is a very complex negotiator. They are a negotiator of resistance, which is the mantra of their country." — Wendy Sherman [12:47]

4. Consequences and Takeaways

• The Trump administration’s actions reshape global expectations of U.S. commitments and reliability.
• Both Iran and North Korea see evidence that deals with the U.S. can be ephemeral, influencing their bargaining posture.
• The stakes—global security, non-proliferation, and regional stability—could not be higher.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Wendy Sherman recounts her nose-breaking incident during the Vienna talks:

  “He [the doctor] walked out and said in English, 'shit happens.' So he packed up my nose. I used a lot of good makeup and went on with my work.” [05:14]

• On U.S. reliability in diplomacy:

  "We are as good as our word, as our politics allow us to be. And the same is true for Iran." — Wendy Sherman [04:52]

• On Trump’s risk of pursuing a summit victory at any cost:

  “Not just from the South Koreans and the Japanese, who are allies, but also from the Chinese. I think that's one of the reasons why we've seen The Chinese have two meetings with the North Korean leader in the last 40 days when they had refused to meet with him for the last six years.” — Victor Cha [21:27]

• On the high stakes of the Trump-Kim summit:

  “It will be a real test of his negotiating skills and how well the North Korean leader can think and act on his feet. And I do feel like we are potentially on the brink of something quite historic. On the one hand, it could lead to something fantastic. On the other hand, it could collapse spectacularly.” — Victor Cha [22:21]

Important Timestamps

• 02:51 — Wendy Sherman describes the complexity of negotiating the Iran deal
• 04:52 — Sherman on the durability of U.S. promises
• 05:14 — Personal anecdote: Sherman’s broken nose in Vienna
• 07:15 — Why the Iran deal couldn’t include other issues (missiles, regional behavior)
• 08:33 — Sherman expresses concern about war with Iran
• 16:20 — Victor Cha on North Korean maneuvering over military exercises
• 18:28 — Cha explains the practical problems of North Korean denuclearization
• 20:11 — The effect of U.S. deal unreliability on North Korea’s trust
• 21:27 — Regional anxieties over Trump’s negotiating stance
• 22:21 — Victor Cha on the possible historic nature and risks of the Trump-Kim summit

Tone and Style

The tone is thoughtful and frank, blending policy analysis with personal experience and some moments of levity (notably Sherman's Vienna story). Both Sherman and Cha speak candidly about the limits of diplomacy, the realities of international trust, and the unpredictability of the current U.S. administration.

Summary Conclusion

This episode offers an in-depth, behind-the-scenes look at the hardest problems in American diplomacy—from painstaking technical deals with Iran to the brinkmanship and unpredictability of the Korean peninsula. Guests Wendy Sherman and Victor Cha provide unique expertise and caution about the long-term implications of withdrawing from diplomatic agreements, warning that credibility, reliable partnerships, and hard-won non-proliferation achievements are all now at risk. The show ends on a note of wary anticipation for what might unfold in the next steps with both Iran and North Korea.