Podcast Summary: “Robin Wright on the Eruption of Violence in Iran”

The New Yorker Radio Hour
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Robin Wright
Date: December 3, 2019

Overview

This bonus episode delves into the violent crackdown on unprecedented protests in Iran that erupted in November 2019 after a steep overnight hike in fuel prices. Dorothy Wickenden interviews Robin Wright, a veteran correspondent on the Middle East, to unpack the roots and implications of the unrest, the severe response by the Iranian government, and the interconnections between events in Iran, Iraq, and the broader region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Background: The Protests and Their Trigger

• Proximate Cause: The Iranian government abruptly raised fuel prices by 50% overnight, sparking widespread public outrage ([00:17]).

  • "For people who had far less money in their pocket, this was catastrophic. ... They just declared it one night, and prices went up the next morning, and there was no period of adjustment." – Robin Wright ([02:47])

• Severity of Crackdown: The Revolutionary Guard reportedly surrounded and fired on unarmed protesters; Amnesty International reported over 200 deaths, potentially higher ([00:17]).

Comparison with Past Iranian Unrest

• 2009 Green Movement: The last comparably large unrest occurred after the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which saw millions protest for six months.
• Current Protests: Unlike 2009, these protests come amid severe economic crisis worsened by renewed U.S. sanctions and a collapsing currency ([01:18]).

The Economic Squeeze and Sanctions

• Gas Price Increase Explained: While seemingly small by U.S. standards, the rise hit hard in a country where incomes have been drastically reduced by sanctions ([01:38]).
• Collapse in Oil Exports:
  • "At the time that sanctions were lifted because of the nuclear deal in 2016, Iran could export 3.2 million barrels of oil a day. Today the estimates are at somewhere around 300,000 barrels a day. ... Oil sales are down 90%." – Robin Wright ([08:16])
• Impact on Everyday Life: Across the spectrum, people endure inflation and shortages. Even those in the military hold second jobs to make ends meet ([07:58]).

Government Response & Tactics

• Rapid Escalation: The regime quickly cut off the Internet to prevent coordination and coverage, demonstrating preparedness from lessons learned in 2009 and more recent protests ([03:33]).

  • "The government ... very quickly cut off the Internet, which stunned everybody that they would take such a draconian step. But it reflects just how much trouble the government realizes it is in at the moment." – Robin Wright ([04:13])

• Regime’s Narrative: Iranian leaders blame the U.S. sanctions and foreign interference for the unrest ([04:47]).

U.S. Policy & Reactions

• Maximum Pressure Campaign: The Trump administration exited the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), imposed new sanctions on Iran, and extended them to any country buying Iranian oil ([04:47], [08:16]).
• U.S. Official Statements: Secretary Pompeo and President Trump voiced strong support for the protests, with Trump emphasizing support for regime opponents ([10:06]).
  • "President Trump today said that he was fully supportive and always has been of protests against the regime." – Robin Wright ([10:25])
• Disagreement Within U.S. Approach: Some in the administration may privately seek regime change, while Trump seems to hope for a renegotiated nuclear deal ([10:38]).

The Broader Regional Picture: Iraq & Beyond

• Parallel Unrest in Iraq: Protests in Iraq, targeting corruption and poor services, have also become demonstrations against Iranian influence ([10:58]).
  • "The Shiites in Iraq are demanding an end to Iranian Shiite involvement in Iraq. ... The chance were Iran get out, get out. And that's a real change." – Robin Wright ([12:17])
• Erosion of Iranian Influence: Iran’s sway in Lebanon is also challenged—Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, faces criticism for its role in the Lebanese government ([12:54]).
• Broader Instability: Wright notes that government responses to unrest may momentarily subdue protests, but underlying issues persist ([13:21]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Swift Crackdown:
  "It was breathtaking in the swiftness people took to the streets when they went out in the morning and found the gasoline would increase by 50%."
  – Robin Wright ([03:46])

• On Sanctions Impact:
  "Oil sales are down 90%, and a lot of it has to circumvent sanctions. ... The United States not only sanctions Iran, it also sanctions any country that buys Iranian oil."
  – Robin Wright ([08:16])

• On the Limits of Brutal Repression:
  "Crackdowns do work, but at the end of the day, they don't solve the problems. ... The 21st century is about something much more basic, more fundamental ... issues of rights and responsibility and the efficacy of government."
  – Robin Wright ([13:30])

Key Timestamps

• 00:17: Overview of the protests, government crackdown, and the roots of unrest
• 01:18: Historical comparison: 2009 Green Movement vs. 2019 protests
• 02:47: Economic effects of the sudden fuel price hike
• 03:33: How and why the situation escalated so swiftly; Internet shutdown
• 04:47: Regime’s blame on U.S. sanctions; broader crisis over the nuclear deal
• 06:10: Daily life under sanctions in Iran; luxury goods vs. basic commodity scarcity
• 07:58: Economic struggles for regular Iranians
• 08:48: Effect of U.S. sanctions policy; regime survival vs. collapse
• 10:06: U.S. administration statements and policy outlook
• 10:58: Iraq’s protests, anti-Iranian sentiment, and regional ramifications
• 13:21: Effectiveness and limits of violent repression; future of regional instability

Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is urgent, insightful, and grounded in extensive historical knowledge. Robin Wright’s outlook is realistic but not fatalistic—she stresses the seriousness of both Iran’s domestic woes and the regional instability that stretches beyond old paradigms of Middle Eastern conflict.

For listeners wanting to understand the complexity of the Iranian protests, U.S.-Iran dynamics, and their rippling effects across the region, this episode provides an in-depth, nuanced primer grounded in on-the-ground reporting and broad historical context.