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The New Yorker Radio Hour
The Economic Fallout of COVID-19; plus Mike Birbiglia, and Chika
00:28:11
As of the end of April, thirty million people have filed for unemployment as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Yet many believe that this is only the first stage or initial shock of the financial system’s abrupt halt. “It’s more like a heart attack than the Great Depression,” John Cassidy explains. He speaks with David Remnick about the ways that this crisis could play out, and when and how the economy could bounce back. Plus, we meet Chika, a rapper who was hailed by P. Diddy as “best of the new school.” And Mike Birbiglia imagines his ideal death.
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This is the New Yorker Radio Hour, a co production of WNYC Studios and the New Yorker.
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Welcome to the New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm David Remnick. No one living has ever seen anything quite like what's happening to our economy now. Tens of millions of Americans have filed for unemployment in just a matter of weeks. Millions more can't even get through the systems to file. We don't know how many workers have been furloughed or had their hours cut. And there's already concern that the multi trillion dollar relief package won't be enough to tide us over to the other side of this pandemic. Whenever that comes. The pain is just enormous and the brunt of it is being borne by those who didn't have much of a cushion to begin with. To make sense of where things are headed, last week I called up John Cassidy, who covers economics and politics for the New Yorker. John, we're hearing so many dire statistics about the economy before we dive into them. How would you differentiate between the Great Depression and the way that began and the way it stuck around for years and what we seem to be entering here during this coronavirus economic crisis?
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Yeah, that's a very good question. I mean, they are very different. They're similar in that they're huge. You know, they're just huge downturns. But the great depress, the stock market crash, was in October 1929, and unemployment didn't peak until 1933 at about 25%. So it was a gradual process, whereas what we've seen here is just a sudden stop to the economy. So it's more like a heart attack than the Great Depression. We've just said bang, stop, not everything, but a lot of things. And we've imposed these enormous restrictions on the economy, but on the other side, these equally enormous rescue programs to try and keep businesses and households on life support until we allow the economy to come back again. What we're starting to find in the last couple of weeks is that these life support programs, even though they are very large, they're not reaching everybody. And a lot of people have been laid off. We knew that would happen. But a lot of the people who are being laid off aren't getting access to their unemployment claims. And a lot of firms are getting access to the programs that they're entitled to.
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Now, you say that we turn the economy off artificially, obviously for public health reasons. At some point, whether gradually or quickly, a lot of those restrictions will be reversed. And we hope it's soon, and we hope it's done in the healthiest way possible. Why wouldn't the economy then swing back upward the way the President claims daily?
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Well, there certainly will be some comeback. I don't think anybody thinks that reopening parts of the economy won't have any impact. I mean, just arithmetically, obviously businesses which are closed, if they open factories start operating again. But the problem is that all the indications are it won't come back as strongly as is before for a few reasons. The main one being that most people or a lot of people are still very reluctant to go out until we get a full handle on the virus testing or better still, some sort of virus vaccine or therapeutic. You can look around the world. I mean, we're basically a month or two behind Asia. And the Asian countries did start reopening their economy about a month or six weeks ago. And what you see there is, there is definitely a bounce back, but it's nowhere near as strong as it was before. I was looking, for example, at the casinos in Macau. They're only running at 20% of the previous revenues, which suggests that 80% of the customers are still staying away. I'm not saying that's going to be replicated Everywhere in the US I think things will obviously come back stronger than 20%. But it just gives an indication of the challenges we see ahead.
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At the start of the pandemic, the first people to lose their jobs were in jobs like restaurants and airlines and hotels. Where's the next wave of job losses likely to be concentrated?
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Well, this is what the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department policymakers are trying to avoid. As you said, basically the frontline industries get closed down first. But what you often get in a severe economic downturn, as some industries turn down, people lose income, people are thrown out of work, people start to give up on bank loans, et cetera, you get a spiraling downwards. And the second wave of unemployment basically is economy wide just because all businesses see a drop in demand. So you're starting to see that now in, in industries like media, for example, where advertising has collapsed, so media companies are starting to lay people off. You see it in secondary industries which depend on travel. For example, the airline manufacturing industry, General Electric, which makes aircraft engines. Boeing is not building as many planes as it used to do. So General Electric can't sell as many engines. It feeds down through the supply chain. And you're going to see that in industry after industry if this goes on for a few months.
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So far, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment and there's Indications that by the time we go on the air in a few days, there will be even more people filing many more millions. Just how high could the unemployment rate climb?
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Well, there are various estimates. I mean, most people think that we're up to about 30 million now, given this week's claims. And most people think it go considerably higher from there. In terms of unemployment rates, there have been estimates as high as 30%. I think the consensus on what street is about 20, 25%. We'll get a figure a week on Friday, on May 8th for April. And it's likely to be the highest rate since. Well, some people think it might be the highest rate since the recession of the 1980s. Some people think it might even go back to the 30s.
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You've seen a lot of frontline workers at places like Amazon, Walmart, FedEx upset over their pay and their personal safety. Do you think this crisis is going to have an effect on the labor movement, which has been compared to decades in the past, relatively weak? And do you think there'll be a bigger push for $15 minimum wage and other benefits?
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Yes, I think it depends how long it lasts. It'd certainly give it a push. At the moment, you're already seeing more sort of union organization, more activism, as you say, in the meat processing plants where conditions were terrible and more than 20 workers have already died because they have to stand so close to each other. And the virus was sp. You see, quite effective activism there, although Trump has now undermined it by imposing a sort of federal emergency order. But anyway, to answer the broader question about whether there's going to be a bigger rebound, Amazon is a test case, of course, because they've always resisted unionization and a very aggressive management style. There was a protest in Staten Island a few weeks ago about the sort of health and safety and the reaction to the coronavirus. And they just, they fired the people who organized it. They do that all over the country. So I think Amazon could be the test case. And if they were to be forced to accept unionization, that would be a huge victory for the labor movement. I mean, I've written about this. Lots of people have written about it. Extended crises, wars, pandemics, et cetera, if they go on a long time, do tend to produce big political changes and big social changes, and often in a progressive direction. Because it, it becomes obvious in crises, in wars and in pandemics, the contribution made by ordinary people and working people. We see that we can't actually, the economy can't work if there's nobody producing Meat. The economy can't work if there's nobody delivering packages.
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Well, how is it unique in this country? In other words, what has the pandemic revealed economically in the United States as opposed to other places comparatively?
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Well, the United States is a more unequal country and has been historically than most other western democracies. And what the pandemic has done in various ways is just illuminating these underlying inequities and inequalities that have been there a long time. So all those things are coming together and I think if the crisis was to go on for years, that would definitely feed through into sort of progressive programs and a wave of populism. Big legislation, big changes as we saw during the Great Depression and we see after the Second World War. But if it's only a few months and if it bounced back, I think it's much more difficult to sust that sort of movement and that pressure for change. So a lot depends on how the pandemic plays out. Basically, I think, well, what is the.
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Best possible scenario here? The worst possible scenarios we've gone through in pretty grim detail. What is the best that can happen economically here?
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Well, I think the best scenario we can have is a sort of gradual, reasonably strong bounce back. Even Trump himself has now stopped talking about a bounce back in the summer and he's saying that things will bounce back in the third quarter, which begins in September, that may be reasonable. So if we can get mass testing working by Fauci said the other day that it'll be working by the end of May, but I think that's probably too optimistic. But if we can get it up and running at least by the summer, the idea is that by the fall, when colleges and schools, if they start going back, that'll be obviously be a big change. If the factories are mostly reopened, restaurants and other businesses are reopened using social distancing and the idea that the Fed's programs have worked, we won't have had a full on financial collapse and things will be heading in the right direction. I think that's the best reasonable scenario and we get a reasonably strong but gradual recovery.
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And do you think the odds are halfway decent for that?
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Well, I think they're better than they were just because the federal response, it can't be as bad as it was in the beginning because it was non existent in the beginning. I think businesses and states gradually realized they had to work around. The federal government, like New York being a good example, is starting to introduce mass testing, serology tests, etc. But also on the business side, they're starting to respond because they realize the government won't do it for them. So Amazon, for example, has said is now working on a program to test all its employees. JetBlue announcing that you have to wear a mask to get on a plane. So I think things are gradually moving in the right direction on the sort of testing and mask policy. But it would have been so much easier if we had proper leadership from the top because it's all a matter of coordination. And that central coordination has just been sorely lacking, obviously.
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John Cassidy, thanks so much.
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Thank you.
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John Cassidy is a staff writer specializing in politics and economics. You can read all of his work@newyorker.com and subscribe to his newsletter. This is the New Yorker Radio Hour. More to Come this is the New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm David Remnick. Gofan Emputubele is a producer for the program and a little while back he pitched me on interviewing a rapper named Chica and he seems so enthusiastic about having her on the show that I just said, why don't you do the interview? So Gofin, why were you so excited about interviewing Chika? What is it about her that you're so enthusiastic about?
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So my family is Congolese, from the Congo, and one of the experiences that a lot of us have as first generation Americans whose parents are immigrants from Africa is that we don't see a lot of ourselves ever in the media, in films, in any big stream area, major stream area. And so seeing this rapper who was first gen African at a major label, Warner Records, is really exciting and I was really curious to find out more.
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About her music and her family, where they come from.
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So she's from Alabama, her family is from Nigeria. And she's really young too. She is 23.
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And how did she come to your attention?
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So Chika in 2016 became viral off of a kind of satiric comedic video that she posted the night of the election. And since then she's had a series of videos, one major one being a response to Kanye West's kind of politics in the Trump era that went immensely viral. And so she continues to have this kind of presence tied with commenting on what's going on in Society.
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Now, Mr. West, take a seat. I employ ya. Over time it seems it's gotten harder to ignore ya. You undo the progress of the geniuses before ya King gave you the boxing now we know you can afford huh it don't matter how much money you gotta, you gotta.
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Someone had liked one of your tweets that's how I like, saw you on the Internet and I was like, oh, you know, I started following you and then at some point I was like, oh, she's Nigerian. Yes. We have another like, first gen person out here.
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We're literally a gay.
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Oh my gosh. The way that I've been describing the immigrant, first gen, African immigrant experience recently is like, there's like before Black Panther and then there's after Black Panther.
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We can press the issue. Cause it is different. It is different out here.
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Yeah, there was nothing, I don't know, in my experience, there was nothing that was cool or like desirable or redeemable.
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Like, oh my God. And now everybody's Wakanda forever. I can't. I just cannot.
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What?
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What, like, what was the telling your parents, like, I want to be a rapper. What was that experience like?
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For some reason, that's one of the smoothest exits from a college that an African child probably has ever seen. Because I planned it. I literally, I knew that I could not go empty handed into that conversation. And so I literally was like, how do I tell these people that I am done? And so in the, the months leading up to school, like that semester ending, I was like, how do I do this? And I went home right before, like probably a month or two before school ended. And I, I was like, hey, y', all, how y' all been? Sat them down and was like, all right, but like, look at this real quick. College is applied time. And if I apply my time elsewhere in the field that I want to work in, is that not the same as going to college? Like, I am wasting my prime years in a place where I don't even know what I'm doing because I didn't have a declared major. I was like, I'm wasting money, I'm wasting time. And on top of that, like doing music as a hobby. Yeah, you can do that in your spare time. But what spare time will I have when I'm in college? Like, this makes no sense. I know what career path I want to go into.
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What was the look on your parents faces when you were like launching into like your prepared speech about why you wanted to leave college?
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It was like just the most skeptical. And also, we're tired of you faces. Like, my dad is, he's. He's a skeptic, but he's like the laid back skeptic. My mom, though, she's like, nah. And I was like, so look, give me, give me a year to make some shake. And like, I will go back to School after a year, if nothing pops off. And they agreed. They told me I had to get a job. They were like, yeah, you can chill here. You can stay at the crib. And I was like, ayy, it's lit. And then I left school June 2016, and I popped off in November.
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So I want to talk about one of my favorite songs on the album, Songs about yout Love It. So the line go. I met HOV last week. That was hella cool. Diddy introduced me as Best of the New School.
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I met HOV last week. That was hella cool. Diddy introduced me as Best of the New School. Not too shabby for an Alabama bitch for getting rich. I got respect from heavy hitters and did it without a disc. And I came to deliver. I'm off of Twitter. And in your speakers we gonna see.
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Tell me about when you met them. And what was that?
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Like? It wasn't awkward, but for me, it felt awkward just because I was at the Roc Nation Brunch.
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The Roc Nation Brunch being one of the biggest music events of the year. Roc Nation, Jay Z's label. So you're just hanging out like one.
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Does, you know, just chilling in Beyonce and Jay Z's space, just, you know, in there. But my manager was working at Rock at the time, and she somehow, with all her grace and wisdom, had finessed me into there, and I had gone. I didn't know I was going until, I think, either two or, like, one or two days before. So I had no time to prepare. I wasn't in, like, a fancy outfit. Like, I wore a sweater and some boots and, like, was chilling. Like, I was from Alabama, and it was so obvious. But I was extremely nervous to be there. Like, I was like, I can't do this. Like, I think I walked in and the first person I saw was, like, Fat Joe and DJ Khaled just chilling. And so we had just gotten there. We had, like, a drink. And we're standing out there because we all enter through the same door. Like, there's pictures and, you know, get your glass of champagne and go into the event. But as soon as I walk out there, just as the universe would have it, the two people entering it is literally Jay Z and Diddy at the door. And I'm like, this is. This is a joke. This is actually a joke. I don't know who planned this, but I'm being punked. And so I am, like, burying my face on my phone. And all of a sudden, Diddy goes, yo. And, like, I'm like, oh my God, here we go. Leave it to this one man to just blow my cover completely. And I'm like, yo. He goes hoof. And Jay Z like I say always. He spins on his heel. It looks at Diddy like, what? What's up? He's like, do you know who this is? And I'm like, don't say that because who am I? Don't, don't hype me up too much. Like I'm really a regular ass like 21 year old from Alabama. Like relax. And he, he's like, no, I don't know who this is. Like enlighten me. He's like, yeah, no, she's, she's dope. Like this is like the next big thing, next upcoming thing. Like nothing but bars. I you now. I would not lie to you. Best in a new school. And. And then he like shakes my hand, is like, thanks for being here. I'm like, yo, thanks for having me. Like you didn't have to shake my hand. Like you didn't have to touch me. But that happened and for hours later I kind of was just walking around aimlessly and being like, I don't know why I'm here. I had extreme imposter syndrome after that and I was like, this is crazy. I have to put this on a record. I have to.
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So the first kind of big song on the album is called Industry Games. I love the sound of the song. Let me just, I'm just going to play to refle fresh and you can, you might be able to hear a little bit but like the.
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Industry games, yeah, rapping, but they not in love with it. Think it's a shame I'm about to pop on some other. Think it's a game. They don't control where I land.
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That sound. It makes me, when I hear it I think of like, it makes me think of like bells kind of like what, what is like the vibe that you were trying to evoke with the song?
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I think because it sounded so like sinister and also like very contemplative. I was like ah, like I have to write to this. And I just kind of. I at the time I just moved out to la. It was last January and I was in the house all the time and I wanted to create and I felt just like all this energy and I was like, yo, I just want to talk my real quick like because I think that like everyone's playing right now. Nobody's really taking it serious. And so I picked a beat that literally sounds like I'm about to go in on somebody. And I clearly did. And that's really what caught me the most.
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And what to you is kind of like the epitome of the industry games that you're describing or talking about in the song.
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I think for me, it's being told to bite my tongue. A, I guess that's number one, being told to bite my tongue and to not call BS on a lot of things. As someone who I'm, A, a woman. B, I'm queer. C, I'm plus size. D, like, I'm a child of immigrants. Like, I have a lot of things stacked up against me. And a lot of. There's still a lot of, like, respectability politics. And I'm. I'm not gonna do that. And also on top of that, like, I know that sex sells and, like, I can write songs about sex, like, but I'm not the. The girl that people would automatically jump to when it comes to women in hip hop. And it's not that it's impossible for a woman to not talk about sex and be successful. It's not that at all. It's more so that the era of rap that I'm existing in, there aren't too many women like me doing what I do without trying to appeal to the male gays because I don't care about any of these men. So it's, you know, they've always said, be the girl that women want to be and the women that men want to sleep with. And that's not a game that I want to play. I do not care. Like, I just. I can't care. I'm here for the craft. I'm here for the sport of rap and not to appeal or sell a dream to anybody. I'm going to be as real as they come.
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Yeah.
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What's. What's your hope for? Like, you know, what. What's. What's next? Like, what do you. What do you hope for kind of like going forward?
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The health of our nation. I just wanted everything to go back to normal, first and foremost. But after that, I just want to get out there and not just tour, but I'm just really excited for. To be able to actually enter this space and compete. Like, I think the competition aspect of rap has kind of died, and we really. We compete via numbers and streams and charting and, like, none of that matters to me because hip hop is a black art form, and we don't really get the opportunity to uplift it anymore. It's just a trend because it's the number one sound in the world, but, like, there was a portion, a period of time, like, you could not rap crap. You did not do it. So I wanna, like. I wanna kind of get back to that, like, and be a good gatekeeper for what people before me have built. Cold hands, sharp pencil I scribble the stands as my hands are trembling grade 7 made heaven out of words I, I began to build a world that only I inhabit I got a habit of rapping about tragic I think I'm just passionate Trying to stay the way.
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That'S Chica talking with the New Yorker Radio Hours. Gofen Emputu. Chica's debut record is called Industry Games.
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Young girl, old dream. Oh so, oh, dear. Plan B. Plan well, good luck no fear, just wait and God will tell you when the time's near but if I never jump then I die here Ain't no ride till you pick up speed they think college is all you need and I don't blame your brainwashing all you.
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See I'm David Remnick, and we're going to close the New Yorker Radio Hour today with the actor and comedian Mike Birbiglia. Mike's got some thoughts to share on a subject that's pretty dark but seems to be on most people's minds lately. Here's Mike Birbiglia.
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This is the first time I have spent long stretches imagining my own death. And I feel like I'm okay with some versions of my own death. Like, maybe I go for a nice long walk, I have dinner with my wife and daughter, maybe a phone call with an old college friend, and then a meteor hits the earth. Sign me up for that death. Or maybe this. I take a guitar lesson with Paul Simon. He teaches me the boxer. And then, for no justifiable reason, I play the song perfectly, like, better than Simon and Garfunkel in Central park in 1981. And after I play the final note, Paul looks over at me and says, that was really good, Mike. And then the building explodes. Obviously, in that scenario, we both die instantly. And then the headline reads, paul Simon and unknown Comedian die after perfect jam session. There's actually one last death scenario I'd be okay with. To recap, it's dinner with my family. And then a meteor. Number two, Simon and Birbiglia, followed by explosion. The third and final death scenario I'm okay with is my wife and daughter and I go to the beach. We have a bonfire which is prepared by bonfire professionals who make sure it's not too hot, but perfect for s' mores and we make s'. Mores. Actually, no, wait, that's after we make a bonfire pizza with dough flown in from Frank Pepe's in New Haven. So we do bonfire pizza, then bonfire s'. Mores, and then my wife leans over to me privately, because our daughter's only five, and she says, if anything ever happened to you, I want you to know that we would be okay and that you've given us more than we could hope for in three lifetimes. So God forbid anything happens, we will be fine. And then I say, I love you both, and I walk into the water and I am eaten by a shark. Quickly. The key there actually is quickly. And then the headline reads, unknown comedian killed by Shark after he kills with thousands of audience members. Those are the ways I'm okay dying. But these days it's not like that. It's much grimmer. It's hacking coughs and scorching fevers and ventilators and intubations and people sharing their final words with their families through a bad connection on a cell phone. So my only remaining hope in this awful simulation is that if I find myself in a hospital hooked up to a ventilator that is about to be taken from me, that I will be aided by an adequate amount of medical delirium to actually believe that the last thing I see is Paul Simon leaning over to say, mike, you played that final note perfectly.
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Mike Birbiglia. You can read his piece in the Daily shout section of newyorker.com this is the New Yorker Radio Hour. Thanks so much for joining us and be well.
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The New Yorker Radio Hour is a.
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Co production of WNYC Studios and the New Yorker. Our theme music was composed and performed by Meryl Garbus of Tune Yards, with.
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Additional music by Alexis Quadrado.
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This episode was produced by Alex Barron.
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Emily Botin, Ave Carrillo, Rhiannon Corby, Kalalea.
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David Krasnow, Gofen Mputubwele, Louis Mitchell, Michelle Moses and Steven Valentino, with help from Alison McAdam, Morgan Flannery, Danny Bonner, Meng.
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Fei Chen and Emily Mann. The New Yorker Radio Hour is supported.
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In part by the Tsarina Endowment Fund.