The New Yorker Radio Hour: What Trump Has Got Wrong—and Right—About the War in Ukraine
Host: David Remnick
Guest: Stephen Kotkin, Historian and Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution
Release Date: March 7, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of The New Yorker Radio Hour, host David Remnick engages in a deep conversation with Stephen Kotkin, a renowned historian of Russia and a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. The discussion revolves around former President Donald Trump's policies and perspectives on the war in Ukraine, his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the broader implications for American power and global alliances.
Trump’s Policies Towards Ukraine and Russia
David Remnick opens the conversation by highlighting Trump's ambiguous stance towards Russia and his disdain for Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Remnick notes recent actions by Trump and J.D. Vance, including derogatory remarks towards Zelenskyy and a freezing of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
Notable Quote:
"Trump’s lean toward Russia was investigated and it was psychoanalyzed. And his affinity for Putin is as vivid as his disdain for Ukraine's democratically elected leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy."
— David Remnick [00:34]
The Impact on US Power and Alliances
Stephen Kotkin analyzes the strategic implications of Trump's actions, suggesting that while Trump's approach damages American soft power, it might reveal underlying truths about America's global standing. He emphasizes that the US faces a challenge in balancing its vast power with declining support from traditional allies.
Notable Quotes:
"Presidents rarely turn a ship as big as the United States during a four-year term."
— Stephen Kotkin [05:24]
"American institutions are phenomenal, and they've lasted a really long time."
— Stephen Kotkin [33:56]
Kotkin argues that Trump's policies could exacerbate the overextension of American commitments worldwide, noting that alliances with countries like Germany and Japan are weakening. He suggests that Trump's actions might inadvertently accelerate a process where US commitments exceed its capabilities, not due to a decline in American power itself, but because of strained alliances.
Russia’s Strategy and the War in Ukraine
The conversation shifts to Russia's grand strategy, with Kotkin outlining a long-standing Russian perspective focused on Western decline and self-preservation. He discusses the unsustainable nature of Russia's military endeavors in Ukraine, highlighting the immense human and economic costs without tangible gains.
Notable Quotes:
"Zelensky is looking for security guarantees, which means that not just Ukrainians will die, that people from other countries, European countries especially, will die."
— Stephen Kotkin [04:14]
"Russia's in this holding action. Come on, come on, come on. You guys collapse, you guys collapse."
— Stephen Kotkin [16:57]
Kotkin stresses that the conflict's resolution likely hinges on political pressure rather than battlefield victories, advocating for an armistice that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty while halting further losses.
China’s Perspective and Taiwan
Addressing the broader geopolitical landscape, Kotkin explores how China's observation of US actions in Ukraine might influence its approach toward Taiwan. He speculates that China's leadership, particularly Xi Jinping, is assessing American investment strategies and military readiness, which could impact decisions regarding Taiwan's future.
Notable Quotes:
"China has been strangling Taiwan for years and years now."
— Stephen Kotkin [28:05]
"Xi Jinping knows more about the PLA than you do. And the PLA is corrupt."
— Stephen Kotkin [31:03]
Kotkin warns that while China continues to tighten its grip on Taiwan, the US must enhance deterrence not just through military means but also by addressing the political motivations behind China's potential aggression.
The Resilience of American Institutions
Despite concerns about Trump's leadership and its impact on global politics, Kotkin expresses confidence in the inherent strength and resilience of American institutions. He acknowledges the challenges posed by modern media and social platforms but remains optimistic about the US's ability to navigate and overcome current political tumult.
Notable Quotes:
"My view is pretty clear. The society is unbelievably strong, resilient and dynamic."
— Stephen Kotkin [33:56]
"In the long run, we're good because we have the better system."
— Stephen Kotkin [34:13]
Kotkin draws parallels with historical moments of crisis in America, asserting that the nation's foundational institutions and societal dynamics provide a robust framework to address and survive contemporary challenges.
Conclusions
The episode concludes with a reflection on the intricate balance of American power, the importance of maintaining strong alliances, and the necessity of adaptive strategies in an evolving geopolitical landscape. Kotkin emphasizes that while Trump's policies may present short-term disruptions, the enduring strength of American institutions and societal resilience remains a critical asset for navigating future international relations.
Closing Quote:
"We have corrective mechanisms. We have a free and open society. We got a judiciary that still works."
— Stephen Kotkin [38:07]
Final Thoughts
David Remnick and Stephen Kotkin provide a nuanced exploration of Trump's approach to the Ukraine war, its repercussions on US-Russia relations, and the broader implications for global power dynamics. The discussion underscores the complexities of modern geopolitical strategies and the enduring significance of institutional resilience in maintaining national and international stability.
Produced by:
Max Balton, Adam Howard, David Krasnow, Jeffrey Masters, Louis Mitchell, Jared Paul, and Ursula Sommer.
Further Information:
For more coverage on Russia's war in Ukraine, visit newyorker.com.