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- [00:01]
A
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B
Hey guys, Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. If you're a fan of the Next level with me, Tim and jbl, then we think you're gonna love the Secret Podcast. Now the Secret Pod usually just comes out on Fridays. It's me and jvl. We argue about everything. Why he hates people, why I like people, you know. But it's an opportunity to go a lot deeper with us. We often talk about our kids and movies and other things, not just politics. And look, we don't do a lot behind the paywall. JBL always says, and I agree with him, you can't save democracy from behind a paywall. And so we try to do almost everything at the Bulwark for free. But we also got to keep the lights on. And so we paywall the Secret Pod and we ask people to go a little deeper with us. Come ride with us, come hang out with us. We think you're going to love it. And this week, actually I've got Bill Crystal because JVL is on vacation with me on the Secret Pod. Subscribe on itunes here on Apple. You'll get the whole show. I think you're going to love it. I think you're going to love going deeper with us. In general, you'll love the show JBL and I do every week. If you like tnl, this is for you. Hello everyone and welcome to the Secret Podcast on the Bull Work. JVL is out today. I'm here with my other best friend, Bill Crystal. Bill, what's up? Good morning. Welcome to the Secret Pod.
- [02:24]
C
It's great. It's an honor to be on the Secret POD very, very restricted to. To just a very, very few people for you and jbl. So happy to pinch in.
- [02:32]
B
These are the people who go deep with us.
- [02:34]
C
What. What's going on in secret there, Sarah?
- [02:37]
B
Well, here's what I'm excited about, because JVL and I have an ongoing conversation in which the secret POD listeners, I assume, are quite invested about, you know, the nature of good and evil human beings. Are they good or are they bad? Are they smart or are they stupid? I think you can imagine which side JBL takes, which side I take. But you and I also have our own ongoing conversation because you have a substack show that you do on Sundays, and when I come on, we tend to have. You and I talk, have two things that we're sort of mutually obsessed by. One is, how do we get Donald Trump to 32% approval rating? For people who have not been listening to Bill and I have this conversation, you should know two things. One, that Bill and I are. Bill and I were the OGs of the bulwark coming together. And it was always, but. But not. Not the Bulwark. Bill and I were engaged in projects to how do we defeat Trump? How do we, like, what can we do on the advocacy side? Since this is a secret podcast, I think we can talk about that a little bit. That was, like, our original goal. It's why I started doing focus groups. It's how you and I became friends when we were trying to figure out how we could primary Donald Trump back in 2018. And so you and I are in a constant sort of ongoing conversation. How do you get. How do you get Trump down to a place where by the time he leaves, knock on wood. Because that's not always assured. But by the time he leaves, how do you make sure that his project, the sort of Trumpist project that has reshaped completely, the Republican Party is viewed as a failure by voters. So that it is not something that is prolonged beyond the specificity of Trump. The other one is just Epstein. You and I both were like, this Epstein thing is real. This Epstein thing is a problem for him, and we should keep talking about it. And so we're going to talk about both those things today. But I want to start with, uh, oh, the. And I'll just say one other thing. So people always say, Sarah, why 32%? What is that about? The reason. There's two reasons why I think 32% is the line we want to hit. One is, I think that gets you down to a place where you're Kind of at his hard base. The people who are never going to walk away that are just the trit's tribal politics all the way down. The second reason is that 32% is where George W. Bush was when he left office. And granted, we were in major economic disaster. You know, the Iraq war was still going on. And the thing that happened with George W. Bush is he lost control of the party. Like people saw him as a failure. And that made the party ripe for a takeover by somebody like Donald Trump. And so if Donald Trump similarly leaves office with sort of a widespread belief that people think this guy, none of this stuff worked, the tariffs didn't work, him being crappy didn't work, you know, geopolitically, it didn't work. That you have an opportunity then to say no more of this doesn't mean we go back to the old Republican Party. I think that's never coming back. But it does leave a window for something new in its place that hopefully is less fascist. So, Bill, how do you think we're doing?
- [06:04]
C
It'll be nice to be less fascist for one of our two parties to be less fascist. We have very. The bar has gone down a little bit from the old days of, you know, oh, my God, I know.
- [06:15]
B
Remember when we thought we were going to save the Republican Party.
- [06:17]
C
Yeah. Or hoped at least. I mean, anyway, it was a reasonable thing to try because it would have been better for the country if we could. So even if it was a 10, 20% chance. But we, we, we learned that lesson pretty quickly. And I will say it to our credit, we pivoted pretty quickly to helping Biden in the primaries in 2020 against or, or moderates. But it turned out to be Biden against Sanders and Warren thinking that Biden could win and so forth. So, yeah, that's, that's long past. So look, I think I, I guess I put it this way. I think we're doing a little. Things are. Things in terms of public opinion are less bad than people think. In terms of the actual authoritarian project of Trump running the executive branch of the United States government with the total support and collusion of the Congress and somewhat of the courts, things are very bad and we shouldn't. So these two things are happening at once. This is a version of your 32%. The way I think of it is, can Trump lose popularity and therefore political clout faster that he succeeds in ruining all of our institutions and not just ruining them, but turning them into authoritarian handmaidens of his DHS ice? Obviously. But now look at the FBI this week and so forth. So, I mean, I think this is a race kind of of two things on the public opinion side, people are a little too pessimistic. I'm struck. I speak to, as you do, many Democratic conferences of Democratic activists, operatives, people, donors. And there's a Trump has this magic sauce. You know, how do we ever fight him? He's got Fox, he's got the social media stuff. And there's a lot of truth to that. And Democrats are behind in a lot of that and don't understand it very well. I've got to say. In some of these calls, on the other hand, he started, he won 49, let's just say 50% of the vote in November. He started right around there. In terms of his approval, he's now 43ish. I would, if you want to even be. I think he's maybe a little lower, but let's just be kind of moderate and conservative. He's losing a point a month. Now, that's both annoyingly little given that he's deporting people with massed ICE agents and he's putting on insane tariffs and doing a million other things like this. He should be losing more than a point a month. But a point a month isn't nothing. And if he loses a continues losing a point a month, you actually get to 32. Now, obviously, it's easier to knock off his top six or seven points than the next six or seven, you know, for, for obvious reasons. So I, I don't think it's, you know, it doesn't, one can't assume that somehow we're just on track to go to 32. But I think he continues to lose ground. I mean, I'm sort of struck by that. He, it paused a little bit there in the sun a couple of months ago, had a little rally kind of. But I think Epstein's heard him. I think the Medicaid and the big bill have hurt him some. And the thing I wrote about this morning. Good morning Shots. I'm curious about your reaction to this from a sort of your own point of view and also what you hear from focus groups and just talking to people is I think the economy, it's not an accident that Trump blew up when he got those bls, those labor statistics figures. Right. And he fired the director. I mean, that he, they were real statistics and they really did show a slowing economy, not a recession necessarily sputtering. I think it's fair to say a stagnant economy. And I just in morning Shots list a bunch of other statistics that are very similar to that. And, you know, if that continues, Trump's magic sauce, it seems to be with the independent, swingish, respectable Republican, Wall Street Journal reading voters is. He's kind of a jerk. He's this, he's that. I don't really like the deportations, but the economy. He really knows the economy. If the economy continues to sputter, don't you think. I think you got a pretty strong one, two, three punch for the Democrats available there going into 2026.
- [09:43]
B
Yeah, well, this is a feature of the conversation on the secret pod, because I am a big. It's the economy, stupid person in terms of just believing that that has an enormous impact on the voters who are not part of the MAGA Magma. Like, right, that, like, is that. Is that like the rock.
- [10:04]
C
Oh, maga. Yeah, I guess that is. Yeah. That's good.
- [10:07]
B
Y. I just came up with that just now, but I'm not sure if.
- [10:09]
C
I'm saying magma's the right mark. What, are you going to copyright that immediately?
- [10:14]
B
TM First, I've got to make sure I'm using magma correctly. But. But my point is that I agree with you. I think they're. I think when you get to that really tough hardcore of MAGA folks, I do think that's where you get into. I think JVL can be right about those people being there. There's a lot of, like, racism, and I just want to see the libs hurt. And, oh, Donald Trump isn't going to give transgender, you know, service members who've been in the military for 20 years their retirement just to be cruel. And I like that cruelty. And I want every immigrant deported, regardless of, you know, I want to. I want to curb legal immigration. Like, those are MAGA diehards, and those people, many of them are like, new. They didn't. He used to vote. Donald Trump brought them off the sidelines because they just wanted to vote for Donald Trump. But the independence is where he's been cratering. And I think a lot of those people, and I talk to them all throughout the 2024 election, are people who are just mad about grocery prices. They're mad about the cost of their housing, they're mad about the job market, although less job market, more prices. I would say I'm starting to hear more about the job market now than I did back. I talked about this a little bit on the next level, but it's been interesting to listen to young people talk about the job market sucking right now and feeling really, like there's just not a lot of good opportunities. I do think that. So I think the economy hurts him worse than anything. I mean, I think if, if. And you just going back to the George W. Bush example, we were in crisis, right? We were in a, we were in a financial crisis as he was leaving. And that's a big part of the reason why people were so angry at him on the way out. And it was on top of Katrina and on top of the war and everything else. But like, it seems to me that Trump could really be setting himself up for that. And there's three, I just want to lay out sort of three reasons why the economy is slowing, as you point out. So number one is if you're going to do a big crackdown on immigration, right, and you're going to deport lots of people, or people are worried about going to work in restaurants, in places like LA because they think they're going to be arrested. You know, you do start to see some less job creation. Like you're just, you're just taking a bunch of people out of the ecosystem. And so I think that some of that probably is impacting jobs numbers. It's certainly impacting the economy. We don't have this influx of immigrants like we normally do. So, okay, that's one thing. And then there's the tariffs, right, which are just really. And this is where I think he got that bounce back is that he announced the tariffs on Liberation Day. Everybody panicked. The market, the media. Yeah. We were all like, this is insane because they came out with this insane chart and it was just, you know, willy nilly. And so everybody was freaking out. This is where the Wall Street Journal was really freaking out. The bankers were freaking out. But he tacoed, right? He then he paused. And so everybody kind of was like, maybe it's going to be okay. And I think that was part of the rally. And then subsequently he's kind of rolled the tariffs out much more. One here, one there. And so it's less of a full scale panic. But you are going to continue to feel the impacts of that, not just in the fact that we see a decline in manufacturing, but it also is going to tick up inflation, which inflation is now. It had been sort of ticking down and now it's ticking back up again. Then I think the third reason we're seeing these jobs numbers go soft is AI, which people aren't talking as much about. But I. Partly because I don't think that people are firing people yet because of AI, though I think that's coming. But I think right now in terms of entry level employment for like 22 year olds, 23 year olds, a lot of the jobs that they would come in and do research jobs, compiling things, reading things for their bosses, whatever, a lot of that's being done by AI and I think it's crowding out some of those entry level jobs. And so I think those are things that continue to get worse, not better in this environment. Like unless Trump pulls back on the tariffs, which he's not, he keeps announcing new tariffs. Those are going to go into effect on a rolling basis. And I just think we're going to see instead of a like bottom falling out, probably a slow slide into unless he changes course, which right now it doesn't look like he's going to. I don't know. Does that sound right to you?
- [14:44]
A
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- [15:44]
C
Yeah, I mean I very much so and I had a conversation with Scott Lincecomb, should be out later. Actually the you know, sort of trade guy who's a very, he's a free trader but in this. But he also was a lawyer who actually, you know, made a living advising businesses on dealing with tariffs, export and import stuff and he makes a very good point which is the absolute level of tariffs and they're pretty high, higher than people realize, you know, about a three or four fold increase, various variant varies from country to country to changes. If Trump doesn't like what the government of Brazil is doing to his buddy Bolsonaro, suddenly they've got a 50% tariffs and suddenly hamburger prices here turns out we get quite a lot of our beef from Brazil go up, and that's a real thing. And. But also just the uncertainty and the. The variability of it all. So that. And the complexity. Administratively, he's got sort of crazy tariffs here. People, I mean, people underestimate. We've had a very. Not just a low tariff regime, a free trade, but a very, as government things go, a pretty efficient one, a pretty painless one. If you were running a small business, some things had to, you know, you knew what the tariff rates were. You paid them. There was an exemption for the. What's it called, the de minimis exemption. Anything less than 800 bucks. No tariff. No, you didn't pay for it. Like, you know, you come through customs, you don't have to declare anything over. I think it's at 800, something like that. When you order something online until two months ago, three months ago, if it's 250, 3 50, if you're buying it from a. What are those discount companies? The China that sell clothes. But anywhere, you know, you just get it right. There's no tariff on it. Now if you order, you know, $10,000 thing, that's something else. Suddenly, I know this. I've heard two stories about this. I'm sure your. Your peers do this more than mine. So I'm sure you've heard many more people ordering things and discovering, wait a second, there's an additional $50 charge because I didn't even know it, it's not even a Canadian company, but this particular item is made in Canada and is crossing the border to physically get to me, you know, so suddenly that stuff starts to hit. But again, it's for individuals, it's a little noticeable, but also for small businesses. Buy a lot of things from other small businesses, and not all of them are in the US you know. So I think he very much thinks that it will be, as you said, it's sort of gradual. But the administrative burdens are enough that if you're running a kind of smallish place that's selling Christmas ornaments and other such things and knickknacks in a town, you know, somewhere, a lot of these, you know, you're importing or you're buying from people who are importing them, and suddenly you have to pay a tax on this one, a tariff on this one, and keep paperwork on that one, and it can become a pretty big burden. So I think the tariffs hurt. I think they were also somewhat inflationary at the job market. I'm sure you're right. About AI and just generally, there's been a lack of capital investment here because partly of the uncertainty. Again, if people knew the tariffs are going to stay high, honestly, I'm against that. But if they knew they're going to stay high, they say, okay, I guess we just got to build in the US Trump gives instead. Trump says, you should build in the air for the tariffs go up and down. You know, Apple gets to, you know, trying to buy him off with a ludicrous, you know, gift in the White House or whatever. It was really unbelievable.
- [18:44]
B
Like literally hands him a gold bar. What is happening?
- [18:47]
C
So embarrassing. But small businesses don't get to go do that and go see Trump so they could try, you know. So again, I think it all suggests softening or continued not impressive performance. Even the stock market, I point this out, which is Trump's, you know, calling card. It helps his big, his big donor is exact, almost literally exactly where it was when Trump took over. So, you know, people are not really getting the. And that was a big part of his. You and I read it. We both dealt with so many people, right? For Republican doters didn't like Trump, but, you know, know the economy, he really knows what he's doing on the economy. Deregulation, some of that maybe they were right about and says that some of the deregulatory stuff did help and all that. But now if that's not helping, you know, what's, what's the appeal? So I do think it hurts him quite a lot.
- [19:31]
B
Well, the appeal's the tax cut. I mean, this is, this is where, you know, I saw Frank Luntz kind of. He was on CNN and he was reporting back from his focus groups. And it was interesting what he was saying because he was like, look, if you are a Trump voter, if you're like a Trump person, you've got exactly what you want. You got. He is deporting people. He gave you a big tax cut. You know, he's taken on the, the woke stuff. And Frank's right about those things. Like I hear, though, from those people too, who are, you know, they're, they're, they're Mega Maga. They're always there and they're happy with a lot of the cultural stuff he's doing. Frank didn't mention, though, the economy. He didn't mention grocery prices. And if there's one thing I've heard about from voters both before and since the election, since the election's the number one. And it's funny, I just did a group or we Just did a group the other day and, you know, we always say, hey, how do you think things are going in the country? And the word that everybody was using was, these are Trump voters, although disaffected ones. They were like, it's really uncertain. Like uncertain is the word they use because they feel like they can't figure out what's happening. We're back to the chaos of Trump and prices aren't going down. And so I just, I think Frank was doing a little bit putting, gilding the lily in how these voters are because I hear a lot of people complaining about the economics of it then being like, but I'm glad, you know, he's, he's stopping kids from being able to change their gender. And people can be like happy about the kid gender stuff for a little while, but once their groceries are really expensive, they're going to be angrier about that overall.
- [21:12]
C
And also once their 23 year old son or daughter or nephew or niece is having trouble getting a job. And I just think, you know, look, some people are just going to stick with Trump no matter what. No question. But the degree, you can chip away at that. And reality does matter here. And it's a hard thing to spin. Also, the economy is the economy. I mean, jobs are jobs, inflation's inflation. You know, you can talk all you want about it's not real or it's fluffed over from Biden or something, but if prices are. Trump keeps saying he's not dumb about this. He knows he should be. He knows it's an important thing for him to say. I mean, but he just can't convince people. I think at some point if, if reality goes the other way. I mean, he can at some things, but not so much on prices, which are real. Not so much on jobs. You have one or you don't. Right? Not so much on your 401k. You can look at the, if you're a little more upper middle class, you can look at your thing every month. You know, he keeps saying gas prices are going down. He's not again, he knows they've told him that voters do care a lot about gas prices. They're not down, they're up a tiny bit. I mean, basically the same as they were when he took over. So suddenly this kind of, where's this thing we're supposed to be getting from Trump? I would say the Democrats. I said this to Budget this week. I have a couple of zooms with Democrats and stuff. Stuff you do all the time. Democrats are pretty hard to convince. That they should do what's in their interest. I don't really know why. You know, it's like they have to overthink everything. So I said this. You know, Bill, that's a tough issue for us, the economy. Because first of all there was Biden with inflation. Well, fine, that doesn't mean you don't get to criticize. I mean let's, let's paralyze ourselves because Biden got hurt badly three years ago or even a year ago on inflation. That's really nuts. And secondly, we have some splits in our party. Some of our people are kind of pro tariffs. The more union people in the Midwesterns, some of our people are kind of dovish on the Fed and therefore more tolerant of inflation, let's say than the hard headed Republican business types. Well, it's like, you know what, that doesn't matter. Just say Trump said he was going to improve the economy and he's not. You don't have to get in 2027, 2028 when you're running for the presidency and you might control the actual US Government, you do need to sort of say what your agenda at that point. We would have views on that. I think, you know, we'd be on the pro free trade and so forth side of it. But the more moderate side, let's say the Democratic Party of whom there are many good, good spokespeople. But anyway, for now you don't have to get to that. 2026 is a referendum on Trump. 2026 is, do you want Trump to continue to have undivided control or would you prefer to see him checked a little bit by a Democratic House and maybe a Democratic Senate, but they overthink everything. You know, I really, I guess I'm really struck by this with the Dems and it's, it comes out of a kind of good point, a certain kind of good nature, say good heart almost. You know what I mean? They want to kind of be responsible. They don't want to, they don't want to just criticize it. But you know what, just for now, he said he's going to fix the economy. He said everything's going to be better. As you said. At the moment it's uncertain. It could be getting a little worse. You got to start seeding that now. I think someone said, another one on the call said, well, Bill, what if the economy really booms in 2026? You know, what if the economy booms in 2026, it won't matter what you said in 2025. I mean, you know, Trump will be in pretty good shape, unfortunately. But if the economy is shaky, you do get credit for saying ahead of time a little bit that, you know, watch out. This stuff is not thought through. This stuff is not what he promised. He's paying off his rich friends. He's not, you know, he's erratic. I mean, all the obvious things that one can say and they, they should start saying that now. I feel like they're doing a better job on Epstein than when we started harassing them to talk more about it six weeks ago. They're doing their usual okay job on their traditional Democratic issues. Medicare, the way I think of it is the sort of. You were talking about the MAGA world. And the Epstein fractures his own voters somewhat. So that's good from a political point of view. It also. But the public doesn't, like, correctly, is appalled. But the Medicaid stuff, honestly, you're pretty much preaching to your own choir. But that's important in politics. You need them to be turned out and energized in 2026. You can get a little bit beyond your own voters with an issue like that. But it's the economy that gets to the middle voters. I mean, that's a good trio to have. I would say you're getting to each segment, in a sense of the electorate in a slightly different way. But the Dems are so wrapped around the axle that they get, you know, they won't just. Just say, he said he was going to make the economy better. And are you better off? Are you better off? Is your labor prices of hamburgers going down? Is gas going down? Is people having an easier time? Young people in your family having an easier time getting jobs? Just say that. You know.
- [25:35]
B
This kind of thing makes me apoplectic in large part because the paralysis by analysis that Democrats do is also unfounded in this case. Donald Trump said he was going to lower grocery prices on day one. I got clips of him saying it. He walked around campaigning. He just lies, right? He lied about lowering. And people heard that. They said, this guy's a businessman. My costs are too high. I don't like him, but I'm going to hold my nose and vote for him. Okay? He didn't lower grocery prices on day one. He has failed to keep his promise. This is a read my lips, no new taxes moment. Just. And also, by the way, you don't even have to take those three things you laid out as separate issues. They're all part of the same issue, in my opinion of Donald Trump, protecting Elites at the expense of, you know, the little guy. Right. And this is where Democrats need to figure out how to find the, the oomph, the, like. I am angry. I'm angry that there are all these Epstein victims that, you know, every, that there was no justice for. I'm angry that Donald Trump is a, is, is protecting these elites in the Epstein thing, maybe himself too, but, like, certainly he's trying to protect elites. He said he was going to be so transparent. He said he was above politics. He was going to release this. That's why Cash Patel's there. That's why Pam Bondi's there. That's why Dan Bongino's there. What have they done? They're a failure. And, and then on the economy, you know, Trump's tariffs, they're hurting you. They're attacks on you. He is, he's protecting big businesses like Apple. And you're going to pay taxes on everything else. You're going to pay these increased costs. He's crushing small businesses. I'm sorry, guys, this is an easy argument to make. He gave an enormous tax cut to all of his friends and then cut Medicaid for poor people. Like, this is all the same thing. Donald Trump lied to you about being for you. Instead, he got in there and he's doing everything he can to squash the little guy for the benefit of elites. And so I just, I feel like the thing I don't want to get about Democrats is they, they have this umbrage, the sincere umbrage of Donald Trump. Right? He's a threat. We think he's an existential threat. Great. Right? So, like, act like it. When you think something's an existential threat, you can't stop talking about it. This is our problem, right? We genuinely think he's an existential threat. And so we will do anything that is required to, like, defeat him. This is why we wanted Biden and not Bernie Sanders. We thought Sanders would lose. Everyone's like, it's because you guys are such dyed in the wool Republicans. I mean, true. You can't sell me on the economic theories of Bernie Sanders. That being said, like, I just, I want to beat Donald Trump. And I think the best way to be Donald Trump is to go on offense and, and, and say, like, Joe Biden really did have an envious economy in terms of a recovery post pandemic. It was the best in the world. But he couldn't sell that case because it was still too expensive for average people here. And the Republicans spared no moment to take the fact that people were feeling pinched on the economy to blame it on Joe Biden and the fact that Democrats can't find it to just like they're always like they're talking about the messaging and they're, you know, there's all these calls that you have to sit on. I won't do them anymore because it's so easy, guys. The economy, it's bad. It's Trump's fault. End of story. If you want to hear the rest of the show, you were going to have to become a Bulwark plus subscriber or subscribe here on YouTube to the feed. Bill and I go on to talk about the Democratic gerontocracy and how their unwinding some of that, which is good news. We also talk about the future of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, which is something JBL and I haven't talked a lot about. So if you're interested in the rest of the conversation, subscribe wherever you get your podcast. We think you're gonna love it.
- [29:29]
A
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