1020: The Worst Case Scenario is Here... And JVL Loves It!

Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: The Next Level
Episode: 1020 – "The Worst Case Scenario is Here... And JVL Loves It!"
Date: September 30, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

This episode delves deep into the current alarming trajectory of American politics under Trump's second term. The hosts dissect the administration’s latest moves—militarization, loyalty tests for top brass, ongoing institutional purges, and cultural corruption—while reflecting on prescient past predictions and questioning where the "worst case scenario" line really lies. The conversation is incisive, irreverent, and occasionally darkly comic, as they balance grim analysis with moments of levity, personal anecdotes, and teases about their live shows.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Quantico “Fat Elvis” Speech: Surreal Authoritarianism in Practice

• Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Event
  • Trump gathers generals and admirals at Quantico for a spectacle—delivering a speech focused on military loyalty and “domestic enemies.”
  • Hegseth’s rhetoric is reminiscent of “woke Fox News meets Tom Cruise’s character from Magnolia,” attempting to intimidate top military professionals.
    • JVL: “If you were worried about it being Triumph of the Will, that’s not what you got. What you got was fat Elvis sort of doddering around on the stage.” (06:10)
    • Tim: “He was really, really bad and old...certainly was significantly worse than any other comp that you could have made.” (15:12)
• Real Danger Amid Absurdity
  • Hosts discuss how the clownishness doesn’t negate the underlying authoritarian project—a “clown with a flamethrower.”
    • Sarah (on Trump’s speech): “He talked about changing rules of engagement...it was, ‘we’re going to straighten out America’s cities one at a time...really pound on people’.” (07:11)
  • The tension between “lethality warriors” and MAGA’s no-new-foreign-wars stance: The real target is the home front, and the “enemy within.”
    • JVL: “They do want war, just with us.” (09:32)

2. The Impact on Military and Civil Society

• Rank and File vs. Old Guard
  • The generals’ apparent lack of enthusiasm is encouraging but raises questions about the pipeline of loyalists.
    • Sarah: “This wasn’t the whooping and hollering that you get...this was the grownups. And the grownups seemed unimpressed.” (05:02)
• Danger of Normalizing the Absurd/Authoritarian
  • Concerns about the “boiling frog” effect—how much are people just adjusting to it all?
    • Tim: “You get to what’s the point, then why are we doing any of this? Let’s all just get drunk and hang out.” (45:35)
  • The risk of mass self-deportation among principled officers, leaving only loyalists behind: “The ones that are the most shocked by this...check out...and there’s another category...the mission and focus becomes these deployments into American cities.” (13:12)

3. Revisiting JVL’s “Worst Case Scenario”—and Surpassing It

• Newsletter Retrospective
  • JVL reviews his post-election piece projecting likely Trump second-term scenarios. Hosts agree reality has rapidly outpaced even his darker forecasts.
    • JVL: “We are way past all of those red lines.” (20:35)
    • Tim: “You didn’t have it... Dark JVL didn’t hypothesize a single negative externality that did not come to pass.” (21:02)
    • Sarah: “It is prescient...I couldn’t believe how on the nose your piece was in terms of predictions.” (22:24)
• Pace and Scale of Institutional Breakdown
  • Unimaginable appointments at DOJ, Defense, FBI—“If you said Cash Patel would be FBI director, would they have believed you?”
    • Sarah: “I am genuinely shocked that there hasn't been more pushback from Democrats, more pushback from the media. Like the thing that I didn't contemplate was the total laying down of civil society.” (29:05)
  • Media, corporate, and tech acquiescence is worse than anticipated: “CBS settling a ridiculous lawsuit...Apple and Meta just settled...all decide, ‘No, we're going to go along.’ I didn’t see that coming.” (30:05)

4. Where Are We on the Authoritarian Risk Curve?

• Are We in the “Worst Case” Yet?
  • Debate over whether we’ve hit the true nadir or if there’s worse to come—“We are on the curve for an 80 or 90th percentile, worst case, I think.” (42:35)
  • Dangers of despair vs. complacency—and the need for clear-eyed vigilance.
    • Tim: “It is not actually useful for [listeners] to think that we're fucked. Totally fucked. Unbelievably fucked. Now if we think that, everybody should say what they think...But I don't want people to exaggerate...” (45:22)
  • Everyday life for most people hasn’t radically changed, which masks the depth of institutional transformation.
    • Tim: “At the kids’ soccer game, it doesn’t feel like we’re in 80% worst case scenario.” (39:52)
    • Sarah: “The scary part...was them grabbing the Uber Eats drivers off their bikes...a couple show of force situations, but not everywhere you go.” (41:20)

5. Resilience of Trump’s Support

• Poll Numbers and the “Habituation” Effect
  • Trump’s polling is as strong or stronger than pre-2016, despite (or because of) escalation.
    • JVL: “His approval rating today is higher than it was exactly four years ago.” (47:08)
    • Sarah: “The reason that I think he does better today than he did seven years ago...is because of our nervous systems, is because of how we've changed. Not that he's changed.” (51:18)
  • If the election were held now, hosts are unanimous: Trump would win, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

6. Culture, Corruption, and Liberalism’s Limitations

• Right-Wing Ascendancy & Cultural Realignment
  • Trump’s administration has shifted the “economic slipstream” so that right-wing culture and corruption self-reinforce. The culture war now has concrete business incentives (media, tech, brands) behind it.
    • Sarah: “My biggest concerns around Trump are that...he won the culture by a lot more than he won the vote, and that going forward, much more of the culture is going to be right wing.” (55:41)
• Liberalism’s Weakness Against Autocratic Moves
  • Questions whether liberal democracy is structurally equipped to push back when only one side plays by the rules.
    • JVL: “Once you have corruption endemic...you can’t have it be where one party is pro corruption and the other party is anti corruption...” (57:03)
    • Tim: “I don't know if liberalism has a response to that because I want to say yes, but I don't want to shoot from the hip. So I'm going to think about that on a walk.” (61:53)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This was like real tiny D energy stuff.” – Sarah Longwell (00:00, 03:49)
• “What you got was fat Elvis sort of doddering around on the stage.” – JVL (06:10)
• “Drones are replacing artillery...Pull ups have fuck all to do with drone warfare. They do have a lot to do with cracking heads on the street.” – JVL (09:44)
• “It's important to put yourself in the mindset of...where your head was at...an important reference point to make sure that you don't get used to this stuff.” – Tim (26:27)
• “I am genuinely shocked that there hasn't been more pushback from Democrats, more pushback from the media. Like the thing that I didn't contemplate was the total laying down of civil society.” – Sarah (29:05)
• “We are way past all of those red lines.” – JVL (20:35)
• “Trump built an economic slipstream behind him. He built an incentive structure for his kind of heterodoxy that propels right wing media.” – Sarah (55:41)
• “At the kids’ soccer game, it doesn’t feel like we’re in 80% worst case scenario.” – Tim (39:52)
• “He wins again today, 100%.” – Tim (51:02)
• “It's just uniform agreement...he absolutely, definitely would win.” – Tim (51:40)
• Live show anecdote: little lesbians in Toronto try to invite Sarah out, “But actually, I'm so tired and I have another show tomorrow...” – Sarah (63:32)

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Section Timestamps

• 00:00–07:10: Trump/Hegseth Quantico event breakdown; MAGA’s “warrior” paradox
• 07:11–14:31: Policy speech content & military as tool of domestic crackdown
• 14:31–17:09: Trump’s performance, cognitive decline, and generals’ likely reactions
• 18:53–24:31: JVL’s “worst case” newsletter review—prescience and missed predictions
• 24:31–34:21: Immigration, institutional purges, and the breakdown of checks and balances
• 34:21–43:59: The pace, scope, and gradation of authoritarian advance vs. everyday life
• 43:59–47:20: The utility of “gradients of badness” and preventing despair/complacency
• 47:20–53:34: Trump’s poll resilience and American habituation to the abnormal
• 53:34–59:34: Cultural change under Trump; right-wing incentives and the Saudi comedy festival
• 59:34–62:05: TikTok, algorithm control, corruption, and can liberalism respond?
• 62:05–end: Announcements, live show stories, comic wrap-up

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Concluding Takeaways

The hosts agree: American political and social life is in uncharted territory—one that has outpaced even recent dire predictions. While daily life for the median citizen remains familiar, the fundamental guardrails are buckling, institutional resistance is thin, and right-wing culture and corruption are rapidly normalizing. The prospects for organized liberal pushback are in doubt, as the guests debate whether we are already beyond the point of return, or if there is still time—and desire—for a course correction.

All this, as Tim sharply notes, “doesn’t feel that way” to most people, yet the institutional and cultural transformation is both real and accelerating.

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Next week: The gang will record together in D.C.—and, for those lucky enough to score tickets, in New York. As always, listeners are urged to stay clear-eyed, engaged, and aware of the stakes—without surrendering to either despair or denial.

Transcript

[A]

This was like real tiny D energy stuff. And I don't. I don't. Look.

[B]

You don't usually go there. It's usually me that goes for the microtinas.

[A]

I know. I try to be the grown up on this show.

[C]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Well, we are recording this on a Tuesday, a little bit early this week, because the President of these United States brought together every general and admiral in the land, sat them down in a theater in Quantico, Virginia, and he and our Secretary of Defense. Sorry, you're not actually the Secretary of War. That's just what you choose to call yourself.

[B]

It's gender affirming care kind of.

[C]

It is gender affirming care. They had some things they want to talk about and it was ridiculous and also scary. I think most people seem to be settled on the ridiculous part of it. And so I guess we'll just start with that. We have some tape about our Secretary of Defense. Should our enemies choose foolishly to challenge us, they will be crushed by the violence, precision, and ferocity of the war Department. In other words, to our enemies. Fafo. Please clap. You might say we're ending the war on warriors. I heard someone wrote a book about that.

[A]

Get it?

[C]

Get it? He's the one who wrote the.

[A]

So I bet he didn't write his book. I bet he didn't write his book.

[B]

Yeah, I wouldn't take that. The other side of that bet.

[C]

I guess. I just have some questions for you, which is, is this real?

[B]

That's what I'm wondering. Can I start there? Can we just start there? Is this real life? Because I'm feeling disoriented today. I'm just. I'm feeling a little bit. It's hard for me to be as outraged about this as I know I should be because I'm wondering if I'm in a video game and I'm like kind of going around. I'm trying to touch people on the street. I was checking to make sure the plant was real. It's a real plant back here that I've got. And I just. That can't be right. Like, I just haven't woken up yet. I was feeling a little under the weather last night. So I just am in a deep sleep right now because, like the whole, like Joel Osteen meets. Remember the Tom Cruise character in Magnolia? It's the Tom Cruise character. Magnolia meets like a kind of a down market Jesse Waters, like, speaking to people that have, you know, orchestrated complicated military campaigns against our foes, speaking to people that orchestrated the campaign to kill Osama bin Laden. And he's just sort of doing like, like kind of low grade fox woke shtick for them. I just like pitching his, calling him.

[C]

A bunch of pussies.

[B]

Calling them pussies.

[C]

So this is the other. Do you think, do you think that was lost on the audience that his like it was really a work down. Right?

[B]

Yeah, that was the Tom Cruise part. It's like you're a bitch. Like you need to be a tough guy. Like me who allegedly assaulted a woman while my other wife was at home with her child and has done real stuff like drunk co host weekend talk shows.

[A]

You know, I haven't watched Magnolia in a while, but isn't sort of the end of the Tom Cruise character that he is like a broken person himself?

[C]

Why yes it is.

[A]

Because I will say this was like real tiny D energy stuff. And I don't, I don't.

[B]

Look, you don't usually go there. It's usually me that goes for the micro penis.

[A]

I know. I try to be the grown up on this show. However, and obviously this is clown with flamethrower territory because you always tend to in some ways dismiss the scary things that they say. For example, he talked in this speech about how, you know, there was a lot of enemy from within stuff. A lot of, you know, they don't wear uniforms so we can't find them.

[C]

That's Trump. To be clear.

[B]

That's Trump.

[C]

Those are Trump.

[A]

So the President of the United States. Sorry. Yeah, I was jumping ahead to Trump and so it's not, it's not, not frightening. It's just so easy to see, it's just so easy to see how pathetic it was that Pete Hegseth called them all there so he could feel like a big boy standing in front of them. Cosplaying Defense Secretary. Right.

[B]

It feel real to you though? That's what I'm trying to understand. I'm like trying to imagine being in the room with the gray beards and listening to this.

[A]

It, it didn't, it had not occurred to me beforehand, but it occurred to me it was as it was happening. This isn't the rank and file. Right. These aren't the people who are impressed with the fact that their secretary of defense can do pull ups. Right. These are people who went to West Point, studied like, studied hard on how the military works. They care a great deal about the lines, the civilian military relationships. Like these are people who care about that stuff. And so I was very encouraged by the fact that this wasn't the whooping and hollering that you get sometimes when Hegseth and Trump are talking to enlisted people. This was the grownups. And the grownups seemed unimpressed.

[C]

Well, let me bring it in.

[B]

I hope so.

[A]

Oh, don't I want to live in the world.

[B]

So jb, you weren't disoriented at all watching this. You just went straight into ominous. I, I was, I was made unsteady.

[C]

So I, I mean I did, I did have the feeling of, I can't believe this is our country. And listening to Trump as he was because there was a lot of. I said this with Bill. If, if you were worried about it being triumph of the will, that's not what you got. What you got was fat Elvis sort of doddering around on the stage, hopped up on whatever.

[B]

You know, I think maybe he needed to be hopped up on something.

[C]

Not hopped up, but, you know, on, on so many painkillers that he could barely Graceland.

[B]

I thought he was in 0.75 speed on my stream. I had to double check and.

[C]

But it was a very serious policy speech, right? I mean it was filled with ridiculous stuff like I renamed the Gulf of America and the AP was bad and I won all of the swing states. Did you know I won all of the swing states in so many districts. And you know, all that stuff, we.

[B]

Needed the thick cut paper.

[C]

Thick cut paper, right. I said get them the best paper. All that stuff was there. But it was a serious policy speech. The policy was the military is going into the inner cities, there is a war within and this is what we are going to do. And that's what he spent most of the, it's what he spent 100% of the policy time on. And I just, you know, like. So he is telling this group of 800 people very clearly what he wants them to do. He talked, he talked about changing rules of engagement. If, if they spit, we hit. Right. He wanted, he very made very clear that it was we're going to straighten out America's cities one at a time. And that, you know, you got to be able to, to really pound on people to straighten them out. And this is, this group of generals may be all Mike Pences. Well, we got three years for Pete Hegseth to do turnover and do deep dive research on reliability and figure out who is down with the program and who is not and to transform the officer corps.

[B]

Well, if he said that and his speech, he Was like, you know, he's like, if you're not into the kind of micro phallus Joel Osteen like, bit, then you can just leave and retire right now. And like, we have. We already are too hefty on the officer corps, which may or may be true. But like, that he wasn't like, oh, we're gonna, you know, judge you on who, who is the best leader of men. It's like, we're gonna judge you based on whether you're on board with the speech I gave and whether you can do PT twice a year.

[C]

Yeah. And I want to, I want to posit this to you guys, okay? The central tension of MAGA as refers to the military is that they are like lethality warriors raining death from above. Also, no wars. We don't ever want to be in a war. We don't want to expend. Why should we defend India from China? Why should we defend Taiwan? No, thank you. No thank you. No wars. And so you would think to yourself, this doesn't make any sense, except that it does. They do want war just with us. With us, with the right. Their enemies are all domestic and this is why.

[B]

And some Venice couple drug dealers so.

[C]

Obsessed with like pull ups. Right? And so this, you know, I said this about what we are undergoing right now in Ukraine. What is what is considered a revolution in military affairs as regards drones. Drones are replacing artillery. It is one of the largest technological advancements that we've seen on the battlefield since the advent of guided munitions. It is utterly changing how wars are fought. Pull ups have fuck all to do with drone warfare. They do have a lot to do with cracking heads on the street.

[B]

In fact, you might just, just to expand your point, like, in fact, you might want to have some people who can't do pull ups, who have purple hair know, who have weird facial hair and beards because they're really good at video games. Because they're really good at video games and they're really good at, at, at the technology side or they're really good at math. They're really good at the technology side of the drone warfare. And they are, you know, better suited to adding to that, you know, important part of like military readiness. Right. Like, there's no right like in, in this world. Right? Like that could be. I mean, that's not. Everybody can just, you know, has their own life experience to know that, you.

[C]

Know, So I don't know. Do you guys have thoughts on this? Am I being too much?

[A]

I think a lot of it for me And I don't know how we find this out is it's. I want to know how it was received by the people in that room. Because as I was watching it, so I was watching Trump. I know, I know you can go point to the parts you're talking about and that they sound very scary. And if you just cut those parts together, it would probably be a very ominous speech. But it was woven together by a guy who looks like he cannot tie his shoes in the morning. I mean, the idea that he is, has all of his faculties, like, I can't. If I, I cannot imagine the men and women sitting in that room didn't walk out saying, well, this is, this is humiliating. This is embarrassing. I mean, my, all my thoughts were if our enemies are watching. Because he. And he also not just if our enemies are watching. So speaking of our enemies, like, there was a part in the speech where he called Putin a paper tiger. Again, he's sort of rambling on, but he makes it clear. He says the war should have been over in two weeks. Putin should have gotten this done in two weeks. He makes it very clear is on Putin's side. And his only reason he's mad at Putin is because he didn't win the war fast enough. And so, like, if you're an American military leader, do you not hear that and say, this is an insane person? Like, I guess there was part of me that thought it is good for them to see him up close. It is good that this is happening. What military leader could look at the man in front of them and think.

[C]

Yeah, oh, I'm happy to take orders from that guy? Yeah, that guy's real sharp. He's on the ball.

[B]

Here's the problem with that, though. I agree, I think, I agree with that. I have again, I'm having trouble reconciling the fact that I'm on earth right now and that we're not in a parallel kind of timeline that I've been moved to. But I would assume that most of the military leaders are like, this is just unbelievably embarrassing. Clown show. And yet, okay, so let's say some of them take Pete up on this and are like, okay, I'm going to check out, I'm going to retire, good life in Florida, get on some boards. That's nice. All right. The ones that are the most shocked by this or the most just like eye rolled about this, whatever their view is, like, they, they self deport from the military. And then there's another category of people that are like, this seems ridiculous. It's important for me to stay here. Da da, da, da. And, but their, their mission changes, right to JBL's point. And like the mission and the focus becomes these deployments into American cities and maybe going after, who knows, drug cartels in the Caribbean and the rank and file, the hooting and hollering guys. Some percentage of them not trying to, you know, paint with a broad brush or impugn anybody, but like there's some percentage of them that are excited about that. Like the going after the enemy within part. And these generals like, or admirals or, you know, like it's their job to do what the mission, you know, to follow the mission. Like it's not admirals in this case, but. And, and then the guys go into the cities and start doing what Trump wants, like knocking, right. Like they're not. It didn't like feeling like, oh my God, this is crazy. I can't believe I'm in this life. And like I'm gonna just try to be the responsible and sober one here is a good thought. But it's like not that reassuring if the mission is going to be a domestic crackdown. Right. I don't know.

[A]

I think you're right, I guess. Yeah. I'm also just. Because I guess a part of it is that. And maybe I'm just experiencing the same thing you are with like, is this earth? I just am. I'm like, nobody, everybody, we just watched this, right? We all just watch the same thing. Because Donald Trump spoke for an hour and change. His eyes were barely open most of the time. He spoke so slowly. He was absolutely like the Joe Biden. At the very end that we saw that everybody was like, this guy cannot be president. Donald Trump was every bit as bad as that in this talk. Every bit as bad.

[C]

We defeated Medicare.

[A]

Hold on, hold on, Tim. Are you kidding? He was slurring his words.

[B]

He was really, really bad. He was really, really bad. I'm just saying you should go rewatch the last. You should go rewatch the last couple months of debate, of speeches. That's fine. I don't know. Not with needing to nitpick. He was really bad and old and he certainly was significantly worse than any other comp that you could have made besides that one.

[A]

Okay, fine. I just. Okay. He's on year. He's not even done with his first year.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And he sounds do. He was, he was out of his mind, which. And so I guess I, that to me it was just so evident and so apparent that I, I I guess I'm still trying to sort of take JVL at his point that what the. Because I, I. There's nothing you're saying that I disagree with. And in fact, it all very much adds up if you take the rhetoric from today, which was directly to military leaders on top of going into Portland, on top of the Streets of Washington, D.C. having the National Guard. Like, Trump was sort of talking about this, about how these guys are picking up trash in D.C. and, like, why are you doing that? And it's like, well, because there's nothing else for them to do, bro. Like, what do you, what do you mean?

[C]

That's because there have been no crimes in Washington, D.C. he said that?

[A]

Sure.

[C]

No crimes. There hasn't been a crime, except for.

[A]

Of course, the RICO violation of him being yelled at in the restaurant, which he also was, like, weirdly talking about. Yeah. Tom Holman taking bags of cash, you said.

[B]

I mean, in Texas. But he, he resides in D.C. now.

[A]

Hey, JBL, just because I want to transition to your newsletter, because that's what I am primed to talk about and because we are all. And I think it fits with what we just watched. I mean, I think it is. So why don't we move to that? Because you and Bill did do a really good deep dive, and you guys watched every minute of that whole thing. And I think we can talk about what we just watched in the context of your newsletter.

[C]

All right, before we do that, though, let's hear a word from our sponsor.

[B]

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[C]

All right, so I sat down to write yesterday and I went to the bad place. And I don't know if you guys remember this, but right after the election, I spent like a week trying to write hey, maybe it's not going to be so bad pieces. And so I tried to, like, do the version of what does it look like if it's basically okay? What if it looks like if actually everything kind of resolves itself, you know, on its own. And. And then I did a. Okay, what is the worst case scenario? And I should say, when I say, what is the worst case scenario? I don't mean literally the worst case scenario. The literal worst case scenario is nuclear holocaust and everyone dies.

[B]

So awesome. So we haven't done that.

[C]

We haven't gotten there.

[B]

That's great.

[C]

This is what I'm. What I'm saying. So if you were looking at a distribution, if we ran a Monte Carlo simulation on this, you know, with a million outcomes.

[A]

Now I'm listening.

[C]

Two of them would have been nuclear holocaust. We all die. And then you get down to, you know, like the next 10 are that we have death camps set up with. With gas chambers. And then they start getting. So I say worst case scenario, but I really mean a like, 98th percentile worst case.

[B]

I think we're a little lower than 98. I mean, we're still here. You and me and Sarah were chatting right here. We're on YouTube.com we went to Toronto.

[A]

And no one held us up at the border. Came back an amazing show.

[B]

My habeas corpus was not under any threat. My corpus stayed my corpus throughout the entire trip. So I think we can move it down to at least 92 percentile or so. Let's not, let's not. Let's not gild the lily.

[C]

I love that for you guys. So here's what I'm saying. What I'm saying is when I did my. What is the. What is a realistic worst case scenario? Not a Kaiju coming over the hills, but a realistic worst case scenario in November I went back and I read that this week. And it strikes me that we are way past all of those red lines.

[B]

All of them.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

You didn't have it. You didn't. Dark JVL didn't hypothesize a single negative externality that did not come to pass.

[C]

Dark JVL missed a bunch of things. Dark JVL missed the idea of deporting people to third party countries and using foreign jails, like basically buying foreign jails. Dark JVL did not. Dark JVL saw purge of top military officials. And that was happening. Dark JVL didn't see Doge coming. Dark JVL did not imagine that USAID would be gone. So I, and this is what I just want to talk to you guys about. Like, do you. And this is again, it's a sliding scale. You don't have to. We have not had Kaiju or earthquakes or, you know, the seventh Seal hasn't opened. But among the realistic worst case scenarios, I feel like we're pretty far past what most of them were just nine months ago for what you thought we would be at here, Tim, September, October.

[A]

Is there any chance you went back and read the old one that he wrote?

[B]

I read the recent one. So I'm trusting his. His rendition of his old.

[A]

His recap.

[B]

Yeah. Yeah.

[A]

So I gotta say I went back and read the whole thing.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And it is prescient. It is.

[C]

That was the second time you'd read it, right, Sarah?

[A]

I mean, I know it must have been.

[B]

I mean I definitely read it the first time because I'm a daily reader of the best daily newsletter in this.

[A]

Country and we all engage with each other's content regularly. That's great. Here's the thing.

[C]

Regularly.

[A]

It's just. Let me. If you go back and read it, it is a wild ride. And I was trying to remember what I thought of it if I read it the first time, which I'M sure I did. And like, how I would have reacted to what's in there. But, you know, jbl, I actually thought you weren't giving yourself enough credit because you did sort of say, like, you, we knew the schedule F stuff like, but it's. You were writing at such a time that we. Matt Gates was still potentially the secretary was still running the doj, and I was like, man, as much stuff as you got. Right. But. And then he did blow past all and even your stuff about immigration where like, yeah, you didn't know they were going to do it to third place. You were talking about how destabilizing it would be if Trump really did mass deportations. Because you're like, where would they keep everybody? Well, we know the answer to that question now. ICE has become this massive force. Like, you actually asked a bunch of questions. You're like, well, some things would have to happen for this case too. And those have been answered quite quickly. It's like, well, we're going to give a ton of money to ice and ICE is going to build these new massive jails and detention facilities. Because you say it, you say it in your piece. I couldn't believe how on the nose your piece was in terms of predictions. Go ahead, Tim, do you want to add something?

[B]

I was just gonna say I just clicked on it because I do. I remember this now mostly because I remember the neg of Freddie debauer saying wildlife and environmental protections are one of his big concerns. It's just like, guys, you don't, you don't know what's coming down the path. If you're a lefty who has like bought into the BS that Trump is the same as every other part is.

[A]

We might get rid of the nlrb.

[B]

EPA might be in threat. It's like, okay, yeah, buddy. Yeah, that's day. That's not even more. That's done by 10. Morning one. Like, you don't even know where this boat's going. No, I'm looking at it. I remember actually thinking at the time that I thought you underestimated the immigration threat. And I think I was right about that. Like, even in the worst case scenario, because you like right here that you're like, camps are a political liability. I was kind of like, well, yeah, I guess, maybe, but. But also he seems pretty committed to that and Stephen Miller seems very committed to that. So I, you know, so in that case, I think actually glancing through this, I think this was really more like a 75th percentile worst case scenario. As you, as it was written not a 98th. The other thing that you write though, that's worth talking about as you go back through this is he's going to break the Senate and the Supreme Court. And like he broke the Senate before without trying the Supreme Court, like jury is still slightly out on that. I know there'll be some listeners that like roll their eyes about that, but like he has not he's tested them on some of these edge cases. Right. And like the Tariffs case will be interesting, but that's not even the big case like the big suprem court cases like come when like demo like democracy is on the line. Like his personal rule of law. Yeah. Yeah. What'd you say, J. Birthright citizenship. Birthright citizenship. Like his personal ability to do crimes like that. So he has like.

[C]

Yeah, Lisa Cook is a big one.

[B]

Yeah. So he's partially broken the Supreme Court in that case. Like they pretty much have carte blanche to do crimes now, which is.

[A]

Well, it's not that he broke it. They, they abdicated early. Like by doing the we're going to give Trump presidential immunity. They, they basically took them out themselves out of a bunch of things. However, there's still a lot of things that they're going to have to weigh in on. And they have, they've been a little bit here, a little bit there. Like we have seen them act appropriately. We've seen them act in ways that I think we think are inappropriate, but they have not laid down entirely yet.

[B]

The video of I've been watching Nami Coney Barrett's book tour I've been meaning to do a video on. I just haven't got around to it. And, and it's like it's simultaneously maddening and also like somewhat encouraging about like she is like continuing to draw certain lines during that tour that would make, you know, the 98th percent worst case scenario would mean that she would break that red line that she's been drawing which like on democracy issues on a couple of various constitutional matters. And so we'll see kind of how that I think I would call that an open question at this point. And that's, that's the one thing in here it's like not as bad as kind of what you, what you would have potentially laid out as the worst case. But we're also only nine months in, as you keep pointing out. We're also only nine months in. And I think to me it's like that's like the thing that is just like it's important. It's a good Exercise. It's important to put yourself in the mindset of, like, you wrote this November 18th of last year. The first thing that I think about when I think of November 18th of last year is like, my heart sinks into my stomach, like, and I get that horrible feeling in my stomach when I just think about November of last year. And then the next thing I think about is, like, you do start to kind of think about where your head was at. And it's an important reference point to make sure that you don't get used to this stuff. Because there are a lot of people out there that I think are getting used to this stuff and people that would have not imagined what he's been doing, particularly within the agencies, particularly on the rule of law.

[C]

Let me ask you both a question. Let's jump back to November 6th. Trump has just won and you are sitting down with a bunch of his supporters. Like, but serious word, not, not, not the mouth breathers, but like Wall Street Journal editorial board types. And you say to them, Pete Hegseth of Fox is going to be Secretary of Defense and Cash Patel is going to be the FBI director and Dan Bongino is going to be number two. Do you think they would believe you and say, that's fine, or would they go, what the fuck are you talking about?

[A]

I don't know. I went to that dealbook summit thing, which is where I, you know, Kellyanne Conway, I was like, I was like, cash Patel has an enemies list in his book. And I said, what do you think of that, Kellyanne? And she was like, well, I don't know. Maybe they broke the law. Maybe they deserve to be on there. And I made everybody stop. And I was like, why aren't you all more chilled by this? What she is saying is scary. And they all went like. And, you know, and everybody just treated it like it was not as insane as it was. And it reminds me of sometimes people say that I'm, I'm like, too optimistic. But I actually, I have always believed we are underreacting to this part of it. But can I make one, I just want to make one central point about reading both of these pieces, which, again, I think are excellent. I think you were excellent then. I think this was an excellent reflection on it. But I am sure, I am sure that my response, I don't know what it was when we talked about it. I'm going to maybe go back and listen. But my response is always, then you only lay out one side. You lay out the side of, here's what Trump's going to do. And the question then is how do people react when those things come. And I I don't know for sure but I think I suspected that if these lines were crossed more would have been done by now, not by the Republicans necessarily because I think I've been pretty clear about Republicans uselessness now for basically since post January 6th. I I am genuinely shocked that there hasn't been more pushback from Democrats, more pushback from the media. Like the thing that I didn't contemplate was the total laying down of civil society.

[C]

So this is another thing where I my failure of imagination. I did not predict how bad it would be that CBS News would settle a ridiculous lawsuit that ABC would settle a ridiculous lawsuit that Larry Ellison's kid would buy CBS and try to turn it into Newsmax Light that Apple Computer and meta Facebook, YouTube just settled. YouTube just settled. Right. YouTube just settled with that all of these companies would forget like staying out of politics. They would all decide no, no, we're going to go along. I didn't see that coming. So again, worse than my worst case scenario. I didn't see that.

[B]

Yeah, I think that for me you look at it and I would say it is chilling that it was worse than JVL's worst case scenario. So I'll just sit with that there. I think we all were pretty clear that they were going to purge the federal government though like I I could the doge stuff like I I do think was kind of at a scale that I didn't expect. I I did not have Elon Musk running rough shot all over the government and then quitting and then calling Donald Trump a pedophile and then becoming friends with them again like that like little sub very important subplot I did not see coming. But like just the fact that he had put in clowns at the top of these agencies and that they would purge dissenters I think is something that we all saw coming. We knew yeah.

[A]

Freddie debauer I also just if I would like people to go back and read what some people who just looked at these through the lenses of the left, the way they were talking about it in terms of like the little pet policies that would go away versus the entire American experiment. This is where being on the side of democracy and not just a partisan really helps you out because you can widen your aperture to the damage.

[B]

I guess my point is though I agree with all that as it's going about as bad as I expected on that. I wouldn't say it's Worse yet though, like the worst for me, like the thing, like my deepest fear, thinking back, I don't know, on November 18, but like as my thinking came into being between the election and January 20th, my deepest fear is that he'd put these people in, that they would purge their foes, purge any dissenters inside. And I'm talking about DOJ power ministries, doj, FBI intel, and then they would immediately start using the levers of government to go after their foes. And I guess I would just say that is the one area that, that was my deepest fear. And I think that they're trying it.

[C]

Gen was indicted last year, right.

[B]

And they've, it's been pretty ham fisted so far, you know what I mean? And so like that is the part of like trying to navigate all this stuff, which is like, okay, like they're trying. The thing I was really concerned about, there have been other authoritarian governments where that was their first priority and they're pretty damn efficient at it. Okay. Not only silencing foes, but jailing foes, killing foes in some cases. And so I do think that sometimes you, like, we throw out these terms. It's like you say authoritarian. And authoritarian encompasses everything from like Kim Jong Un to Orban to US now kind of. And, and it's like, okay, well we're not at Kim Jong Un, Putin area on that. And so like to me, like that is the one, you know, sort of vertical or whatever that I look at and say, okay, this is where I go from. This is like the, as you said, kind of like the worst case scenario within expectations of like how bad America could get with what you, what you think about America versus, okay, now we've exceeded that and now we're like kind of going into a place that, that is, that is very, that is unlike America.

[C]

Marines deployed to Los Angeles, right, In November. If I say, yeah, you know, nine months from now we've got Marines on the streets of Los Angeles, would you be like, that's alarmist. You're crazy.

[A]

No, no, no.

[C]

That's catastrophizing. JBL.

[A]

Maybe.

[B]

I don't think I would have felt that way. I don't know.

[A]

I don't know.

[C]

Asking. I'm not saying that you would.

[B]

Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't think I would have been. I think that's pretty in line with what I would have thought.

[A]

Yeah, Them looking for excuses to, you know, put troops in the streets. I think we were all kind of like the military parades, the way the politicizing of the military. We were all, I think, worried about that. I, I don't think, though.

[C]

Faster than we expected.

[A]

Though faster than we expected. And also, but they, they, but also, you know, the reason we all have to say pretextual is because they do have to weirdly do these pretexts to avoid real public backlash. Like there is something. So actually I do remember it was occurred to me, I was like, oh, I think what part of what we talked about was. And we did sort of our best case scenario too at the time. And it was really that we end up being more of a kleptocracy. Right. It's less autocracy and it's more that these guys are going to be corrupt and all the businesses. And I think to some degree we are getting that. We are getting an unprecedented level of corruption and business enrichment and all of these companies trying to get in with Trump in some ways that might just put just the slightest bit of a harness on him. Just, just hear me out because I'm not, I'm again, we're all just trying to see. But like if you want to run an efficient kleptocracy, you still need business to function. You can't have people dying. And I would say, and I would say maybe if you, if you have your, your big board right now in terms of your over here is nuclear holocaust and over here is these other ones. Like, I think the middle part is are they trying to kill people now? I think to illegal immigrants, sending them to third party countries where they are tortured. That's getting you, that's getting you there. But like one thing that has not happened in D.C. for example, like you haven't had people get like shot as civilians. Like there's, I do think that there's a middle part here that we haven't reached yet that is about violence against Americans. That is more like the cities all start to look like the protests in 2020.

[B]

Yeah, again, that I think gets me to, again, the word worst is really important here versus worse or bad or really bad. Right. Because worst, I think that's another thing that I said and would say is like in my worst case scenario was they, they do some sort of crackdown on protests, somebody pops off and shoots a cop or shoots a soldier. They use that as pretext for more violence against peaceful protesters. We might be heading, I mean, like, we seem to be on the trajectory towards that. But that hasn't happened yet. That hasn't happened yet, though.

[C]

But again, this is the timeline matters, right? I Mean, if you were making that scenario in November, I don't think you would have thought even with that worst case scenario that we get there in 11 months.

[B]

I probably would have said the summer before the midterms. So, yeah.

[C]

We'Re just on, we're on trajectory for it. Right.

[A]

So we should talk about the, the going into the elections. I'll just, Can I just go back to something though? And it goes back to the, this that he was doing. No.

[C]

Imagine Texas redistricting would happen. Right. That's a crazy thing.

[A]

No. Right. But this is, this is how afraid they are of oversight. It's afraid. It's how afraid he is. And I'm going to say, because I'll just say too, again, going back to the things that we didn't know that happened that are, let's just put them on our side of the ledger is that he's on his back foot on a number of things, not the least of which is Epstein. Right. He has some fear around this. There are things I think he is afraid could interfere with his ability to have this complete control. One is Epstein. Can I just say the other one that I really do think this morning is just flat out actuarial tables that one of the things I think about all the time is if Donald Trump was 55 or 65 or even 70, I would feel very different than I do about him at 79. He looks. Nobody's afraid of that guy. I mean, they're afraid of him in the way that again, like you're afraid of a toddler with a machine gun, but not afraid of him. I think in the sense that, oh, this guy's got decades ahead of him as a strong man.

[C]

Yes. Not decades. I think he's got years ahead of him as a strong man. Like I again, spin it out. I look at that guy and I see Castro. I see a guy who lives till he's 90. Maybe I'm wrong. Who knows? We'll find out. But I. Your point is taken, Sarah. I fully agree that if he was younger, it would be even more alarming.

[B]

Jbl, can I ask you a question?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Because this is true even for me who like has to live in this minute by minute, like intellectually. I read your article and I say, yeah, like we are a little bit beyond what you would have thought is one of the, you know, again, not the most exceptional worst case scenario, but whatever, 80 percentile worst case scenario. And yet maybe that's wrong analysis in some ways or maybe that's, or maybe we're Thinking about it differently because it doesn't feel that way. It just doesn't. At the kids soccer game, it doesn't feel like we're in 80% worst case scenario. And maybe that's because the 80% worst case scenario stuff are all structural things that are happening in Washington. And that means that we are projecting that that will eventually result in people's lives feeling different, meaningfully different. Or maybe it's something about our psychology as humans and adaptability. I don't know. I guess I just. Because that's something I think we should at least grapple with. Right. Where it's like, okay, yeah, on paper, yeah, we're in a. Where you said this was worst kind of scenario. We're there. But I don't, you know, I don't. It doesn't. I don't think that most people, like, there are exceptions. Obviously if you're in migrant communities or if you have a, a small business that's particularly affected by tariffs or something. Right. Like, but like most. For most people, not really. Well, how do you explain that?

[C]

I mean, if you're walking around Washington D.C. because you live there, looks like you live in an occupied city now.

[A]

Yeah, it. I mean, here's the thing though. So it did for a while. There was like a minute where you're like, why are there sirens constantly? And like you're driving around, you see just a much. But mostly the. We were talking about this some at the show is it quickly kind of devolved especially there was a difference between ice and the National Guard. When they deployed the National Guard, it was like a bunch of youngish kids eating ice cream in their uniforms and people stopping and taking pictures with them and they're planting trees and picking up garbage because there's nothing else for them to do. The, the part that's scary and that was really real there. But for a couple weeks now, it's kind of calmed down is them grabbing the Uber eats drivers off their bikes on different streets and ice being there and people yelling at them. And I would say there was a couple show of force situations there, but not, not in the way where everywhere you go, it's there no mask.

[B]

I don't know anybody that's had an encounter with a masked person. Again, like, the masked agent stuff is really bad. So I'm not like, I'm just trying to be clear about what I'm asking. I'm talking about people's real life experience. Like the masked agents are very bad. And again, you would put that on a written ledger on the side of this is worse than what I expected. I actually didn't really expect there would be masked immigration police grabbing people who are gardening outside their homes. But like, I don't actually know anybody. You know what I mean? They're not, it's not so prevalent that it's, that it's changing people's day to day lives. And so does that mean that we're, that we're overstating it? I think it's my question for jbl.

[C]

Well, I mean the idea, the goal of the authoritarian attempt is to control the levers of power, right? And the idea is that you don't have to touch people's lives until they're going to vote. Right. At which point you make sure that people understand where they're welcome to vote and where they're not welcome to vote. And you either accept election results or you don't accept election results. Right. I mean, this is. But like, I don't know.

[B]

But then to me that answer says, that answer says though that we won't really know if we're in the worst case scenario until next year. I mean, honestly, like that's, that, that's how that, what that answer says to me.

[C]

But again, it's a, it's a curve, right? It's like a growth curve. And we are on the curve, right? I mean we are on the curve for an 80 or 90th percentile, worst case, I think, and see, I still.

[A]

Think we do have a ways to go. But I also think that us debating that is only so helpful because we're.

[C]

Debating debating at the moment only nine months in. Of course there's a ways to go.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, yeah, I mean, but that we are, when we end up debating within the margins of badness, I think it's important to say, and this is what I really liked about your piece comparing it is how quickly we blew past a lot of the things that we looked at at the time and thought, well, this would be the worst case scenario and we are past it. And to Tim's point though, and again, I'm going to just bring up the parts of the things that aren't in the article, which is, okay, so he's doing tariffs, but there have been moments of real pushback around this. Right. Because they do have an impact on people's lives. And he's continued, I mean, he was doing this this morning with the generals. He's like, my favorite word is tariffs. In the English dictionary, it's tariffs more than wife more. Yeah. Also The N word, my favorite. You can't say the N word. Nucle. I just. This guy. What a despicable pile of garb. Anyway, sorry, did you want to say something there?

[B]

No, I was just. Well, if you did, either way you can go. I just want to get back to your point about. I actually do think it's useful to have this conversation where we sort of discuss where we are in the process and I'll explain why, but did you want to finish what your thought?

[A]

Well, now I don't remember what I was going to say.

[B]

Good. So. Well, that was really my fault. It was your fault for doing the nuclear invitation side. Side thing. I don't think I interrupted you, but if I did, I apologize. The.

[A]

Have really gotten his head about the interrupting.

[B]

The point that I was, that I was trying to make, which I do remember, is that you said that you don't know how helpful it is to like hash out the gradients of. Of difference of where we are. And I just. And my point is I actually, I actually think it's quite helpful. Number one, it's just important to orient you to where you are. It's good to know where you are in a fight. But two, and I've been talking about this a lot in the last week is this is something I'm just trying to balance in myself and how I talk about all this stuff. The people that listen to this, to us and to everyone in our constellation, it is not actually useful for them to think that we're fucked. Totally fucked, unbelievably fucked. Now if we think that everybody should say what they think. I'm not saying people should hide the ball. I think we should be candid. But I don't want people to exaggerate because it's good for whatever. Because it's good for exaggerating point because I hear from people, people that are like, what's the point? And if you get to what's the point? Now we get into the Sarah speech at the end of every event it's like, well if it's what's the point? Then why are we doing any of this? Let's all just get drunk and hang out, whatever parent or read books or do whatever it is.

[A]

It's the end of the world as we know it. And I feel fine.

[B]

Yeah, Joy out of that, right? And so to me it's like, okay, it's important just to be clear eyed about, okay, how bad is it? Where are we? Where are the points potentially to derail the curve, right? And like and rather than, you know, getting into, you know, a place of total despair or a place of sanguineness. Right. Like, I think both are dangerous. Right. A pair of despair is dangerous. Fear that the wildlife and fisheries are the biggest issue is also dangerous. Right. Like, like. And so that, that's, that's why I think it's a worthwhile discussion.

[C]

Can I push back on this a little bit? Sure, yeah. I, it seems to me that the most important task is convincing the marginal Trump supporters who are inclined to say, no, it's not actually that bad. I know it's not what I prefer, but it's not actually that bad. It is holding up a mirror to them and saying, if we had said to you on November 6th that this is what was going to happen, you would have put your head in an oven. This is that bad. And, you know it's that bad. You knew a year ago that it was that bad. And this is just you rationalizing shit. Like, that's. That I think is kind of an important task because those people need to get off the bus.

[B]

I think that's a useful task. I don't know if it's the most important task. That's not a task that I impugn in any way.

[C]

Pretty important task, but I would say so. Sarah, you said a few minutes ago that Trump is on his back foot. His approval rating today is higher than it was exactly four years ago.

[A]

Exactly four years ago when he wasn't president.

[C]

Sorry, no, exactly seven years ago. Exactly eight years ago. Whatever. At this point in his first term. You do math, but you know what I'm saying, right?

[A]

Yeah, yeah. And sorry, but. And I remember where I was going and the reason I started imitating him on tariffs. And it is this point which is things have also happened which have hurt Trump to some degree. Okay, so for example, the announcing of the tariffs, the market diving, the economy being on shake footing, and things that could still happen that could further diminish his ability to have his authoritarian projects succeed, in part because Americans now are touched by things. Right. And so those counterfactuals matter in this discussion. That being said, I think your point though, about. Because a lot of the things that we talk about, again, this is where being sort of the big aperture of democracy also don't touch average people's lives, right. Until it gets to the economy going into a recession, until it gets into the cops are in blue cities, right. They're not in sort of the average person's streets. And until those types of things happen, it touches people's lives as far as they're concerned. And this is why the pretextual stuff matters. You can get in this argument about, like, oh, well, D.C. is like a third world country with so much crime. You know, I mean, like, the way that I think people who do not live in D.C. think about what has happened. Like, think about the way crime is in D.C. or in other cities that Donald Trump's talking about going into. They're like, well, he does need to do that, right? He's made up a reason, which is this crime that he has to send people there. But things. There has been pushback in that when the economy, if the economy goes down. This is why the market drives me crazy. You know, like another red line he hasn't crossed is like firing Jerome Powell. And one of the reasons that I think he hasn't crossed it is because one presumes the market will react to that. So there are things that happen that back him off from the authoritarian project. And also the fact that he's getting rich, which he also doesn't want to disrupt.

[C]

He fired Lisa Cook and the market didn't react to that. I mean, he, he does socialize these things in an incredibly successful way.

[A]

So I'm not, and I'm not trying to give you, like, best case scenario. I think what I was saying when I was saying it's not that helpful to argue about where we are. What I meant to say is JBL is broadly correct. And I don't want to be in a position of saying like, oh, no, jbl, it's not as bad as you're saying. I think it is. I think the question that we're wrestling with and that, that I would say is that on the spectrum of badness, I still actually think we have a long way to go. Like, I think that, and I think you're right. I actually think we're in the kicking the tires phase. I think that a lot of the things that we didn't think about or that we were thinking about but weren't sure how they were going to go have materialized in a kicking the tires kind of way to reach into a bigger, like. And we haven't hit the bigger part yet.

[C]

So, so let me just. I do want to say, it is clear, as you say, both, both of you make this point often. And it's, it's a true point and worth remembering. He can be brushed back. Right? And this is. We have seen that there have been external pieces of feedback which have caused him to step back, musk Became unpopular and was a drag on him. Musk got thrown overboard. Right. We had Liberation Day tariffs, which caused a huge market reaction. He then waited two weeks and started doing his, well, we're going to delay them, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So it's true that he can be brushed back from things, but the resiliency of his poll numbers over the course of the last nine months is pretty shocking to me. I mean, they have gone down. They have not gone down nearly as much as I would have thought. Well, this is based on economic factors.

[B]

And you're ready for this. Are you ready for this? While Sarah shakes her head. Not only am I with you, this really takes me to the dark place. And if you made it 51 minutes in, buckle up. He wins again today, 100%.

[C]

Oh, yeah, you ran the election again today.

[B]

He wins again, which is insane.

[A]

The only thing I wanted to say to JBL's point is that the reason that I think he does better today than he did seven years ago compared to himself, is because of our nervous systems, is because of how we've changed. Not that he's changed that back then, everything he did was much more shocking to the system in a way that today isn't.

[C]

He changed.

[B]

That's a good point.

[C]

Yeah, he changed the system. No, I totally agree.

[B]

That's crazy that neither of you are like, well, maybe, who knows, counterfactual, whatever, something could happen different. No, we all just. It's just uniform agreement. It's funny, Alyssa Faris said this on. I forget if I was on the View. I think it was on the View or somewhere. And I, I had somebody like, have Alyssa on and argue with assistance. I was like, I don't know. I would love to have Alyssa on again. I love Alyssa. But I was like, we don't have anything to argue about. I was like, I agree with absolutely everything that she said. He absolutely, definitely would win.

[A]

Yeah, I mean, you'd have to change. It'd be. It depend on who he was running against. But this is the thing I hear over and over again from voters who are upset with Trump in the focus groups. And this is where I just. People are like, why do you criticize Democrats? Or whatever? And I'm like, because, guys, let me tell you something right now. When you say, are you upset with Donald Trump? They're like, yeah, I don't like what he's doing on this or that or the other thing or he's going too far on immigration. I'm upset about the economy. You say, okay, I'M going to rerun the election with you. And the best you can get. The best you can get is that people sit out voting. They will not vote for Kamala Harris knowing what they know now. They wouldn't change their vote to the Democrat. And so, like, that is a huge problem to solve, guys. It's a huge problem to solve.

[B]

Yeah. Massive problem. You think you do better if.

[C]

If there was a snap. If this is a parliamentary system.

[B]

Yes, that's what I mean.

[C]

If there's a snap election today and Trump was running for a third term, which somehow the Supreme Court had blessed and he's running against. Pick, pick. Your person. Doesn't have to be Kamala. Make it Gavin Newsom. Make it Josh Shapiro. He wins. I think he wins that race.

[A]

I don't.

[C]

I think, I think my boy should be to this. They are habituated to this. I don't think if Charlottesville happened again, I don't think his numbers go down at all.

[B]

Well, his numbers could go. Yeah, no, no, no. Definitely not Charlottesville. And there are things that could remember.

[C]

What happened when Charlottesville happened. His numbers nose dived.

[A]

We live in a completely different world now where Megyn Kelly is basically just like, yeah, no, I know Tucker and Candace Owens are saying horrible things about Jews in Israel all the time, but, like, I'm cool with that. They're my friends. I'm not gonna leave me alone.

[B]

All the comedians are going to Riyadh. And it's kind of a silly topic to bring up that this Riyadh Comedy fest full. But I think it's an interesting commentary on our society that is related to Trump. And maybe this feels like I have Trump derangement syndrome to bring this up, but our society has changed the last eight years. The idea that a group of people, mainstream comedians, left comedians, not just right comedians, like, right comedians, non ideological comedians are all going to Saudi Arabia to put on a show to whitewash a fucking Sharia authoritarian that killed a journalist, that has slaves that beheads and Behans people. And there's like, pretty little pushback. There's been a little bit. David Cross put out a really funny statement, if people care about that. But, like, and there's a part of me that it's like, okay, maybe this is just. Maybe this is part of the being a frog blowing in water. And like, this is. And we've always been broken and our society's always been like this. And like, whatever. This is just the latest example. Then I thought about it and I was like, no, there was Like a big push. Oh, God, now I'm blanking on it. To, like, not perform in South Africa. Our buddy Little Steven did that song. I forgot. I'm blanking on the name of that song right now. Fuck, it's killing me. I can't go with the name of that song. But, like, that was like in the 80s where it was, you know, people still did it, but there was pushback. There's no societal norm right now against just doing bad, saying bad shit and doing corrupt stuff. And like, so anything that he does that's in that mold. Oh, I called Puerto Rico a shithole. Or he said the Nazi marshers were very fine people. Or he took money in a paper bag. That just isn't landing with anybody right now. And that's a cultural thing that I think is a change. Is that not. What do you think?

[C]

Oh, I think it's pretty.

[A]

I think it's pretty. Yeah, I think it's. Yeah. And this is where I always. I think that, I think that my, my biggest concerns around Trump are that I think he won the culture by a lot more than he won the vote, and that going forward, much more of the culture is going to be right wing in a lot of these ways, in part because Trump. Look, whenever people talk about this media idea, right, about how we need a left wing media ecosystem to rival Trump's, the thing that I try to explain to them is that if you're going to try to like, prop one of these up with dollars, whatever. Donald Trump built an economic slipstream behind him. He built an incentive structure for his kind of heterodoxy that propels right wing media. It, it propels these comedians. Like, that's part of the way the dollars, like, why are they going to do this? Why did the live golf course thing, golf championship happen? It all happened because there's money. Because everybody knows we're for sale now. Everyone knows Trump's for sale and that American culture's for sale.

[C]

So this is, this is why. One of the reasons, I don't think we can go back, because once you have corruption endemic in a society.

[B]

You.

[C]

Can'T have it be where one party is pro corruption and the other party is anti corruption. Because again, I mean, I'll just use the case of CBS and Paramount, right? So David Ellison is doing what he knows he needs to do in order to curry favor with the government. And let's just pretend four years from now, seven years from now, eight years from now, there is a Democratic president, if that Democratic president is committed to the rule of law and is anti corruption. David Ellison has nothing to fear. Like the. You see what I'm saying? Like, the incentives all run in one way. All of these companies, everybody in the private sector, if they understand that the rules are that Republicans will punish you if you don't pay tribute and Democrats leave you alone because they don't believe in thumbing the scales, then, like, what's. You know, again? And. And if the answer is like, Democrats have to be corrupt too, that doesn't help either. But this, right. I mean, it's really.

[A]

This isn't. This isn't about institutional corruption. Sorry. This is about culture. This is about the culture that four years ago. Well, the. Four years ago. I mean, what. They. They're related to each other. But the. The idea that Target used to have, like, the big gay, you know, things or whatever, and now it's like the Republicans have decided, like, oh, we can. We're gonna come and be like, no, you've got to represent our culture. Like, and right now, right wing culture is ascendant because there's dollars for it in a way that the left used to, basically. I mean, people talk about pink washing, greenwashing. Like there were dollars available for people who sort of fit within a certain cultural way. And they thought that's where the culture was, and they're rethinking that now.

[B]

Yeah. This is where mocking them in some ways is kind of better than some other stuff and trying to undermine them in that way. Right.

[C]

What if we roasted them, Tim Roast?

[B]

Maybe it depends on how you do it. I think. I think the execution on that would be pretty important.

[C]

Come on, Sarah, give me a little something.

[A]

I was gonna go the same place. I'm glad you did.

[B]

Appreciate that. Ain't gonna play. Sun City is the name of the song I was thinking of by Little Steven. Sun City was in the song the. Yeah. The corruption intersects with the culture in this one way. And we talked about this in the Canada show, but it's just worth mentioning one more time. Is Tick Tock, right? Like the Tick Tock deal. Oh, yeah.

[C]

There we go.

[B]

And. And now. So it's like, it's both, right? It's a way to both control the culture and. And line their pockets. BB I talk about this a little bit with Cam on FYpod. I feel like this did not get enough attention. BB was asked about, like, what kind of weapons he's used to, you know, for the military, you know, modern military. And he talks about it. He's like, yeah, you know, weapons are important, but we're also looking into other things. Modern warfare weapons are important and, and such as we got this great deal of TikTok and these new TikTok guys are going to be on our side. And I'm like, like, wait a minute. That was like an anti Semitic trope that the Jews were controlling the TikTok algorithm and BB is just out there being like, yeah, we're going to control the TikTok algorithm. Like, okay, well like that's in his way. And so if you have Bibi saying that, if you have Trump saying that, if they have Trump's buddies getting access to the algorithm and then they, they, they, the valuation of it is low, like they're, they get all of it. Right. They can, they can put their thumb on the scale of the cultural stuff in the algorithm and the political, they can put their thumb and scale the political stuff on what people see. And on top of that, they're gonna get cash because they're gonna be able to sell some of their stock to other people because they got such a great fucking deal.

[C]

And how does liberalism respond to that? I don't think it can. Liberalism doesn't have a response to that sort of stuff.

[A]

Well, that I'm not sure about. I be in part because we've been here before. Ish. Right. I mean different, different types of things. But I don't know. We grew up in an era that I think where we were living in the, the backlash to opposition to the civil rights movement. Right. So that had happened in, you know, the 60s, like with our parents generation. And so then we're growing up at a time where most of the stuff that we were getting in our culture was a much more like colorblind racial equity type messaging. That and Earth Day. I mean, I don't know, I feel like we grew up in a, in a very specific time that I think, which is part of why we find it, you know, post Cold War and everything else that we're losing in this moment. But I don't think that their culture invites backlashes like when, when they become the dominant culture that's going to help them for a period of time. But I do think backlashes eventually come out of that.

[B]

I want to sit with that question. My answer to that question is I don't know if liberalism has a response to that because I want to say yes, but I don't want to shoot from the hip. So I'm going to think about that on a walk or something and report back.

[C]

Sounds great. That's what we do with this show, we ask questions that really you want to sit with. Guys, good show. Long show next week. We're together in person. We're together.

[A]

Our habeas are corpusing.

[C]

We're going to be in D.C. on October 8th. You can still get tickets to that. We're going to be in New York city on the 11th, maybe the 11th. You can't get tickets to that. Sorry. We got a very big venue you.

[B]

Can stand outside and like, throw your bra at. I was gonna say jvl, but it's Sarah. I guess that would work. And have her sign it, you know, and then watch the show when it comes out on YouTube.

[A]

JVL, we do have to tell you, you didn't even ask us anything about the show in Toronto and how.

[C]

Tell me about the show in Toronto, guys.

[B]

Well, let me just.

[A]

It was amazing. Our Canadian fans are incredible and awesome.

[B]

Incredible.

[A]

And they missed you. They wanted us. Wanted you to know. Many of them brought us gifts and treats.

[C]

Give us asylum.

[B]

Yeah. Yes, absolutely. We literally had a lady who has a. Who just renovated a motel north of Toronto who's like, she's got a room for us and. Annoying amount of people brought up missing you and wishing you were there. Eventually I got kind of sick of that.

[C]

Thank you, guys.

[A]

Yeah, so I negged on you in the show, just. But. But here's. Let me tell you. Let me tell you something that happened. So Tim and I are outside before the show or chatting, and I'm asking him because there was like some cute boys coming up to Tim, you know, and with some young girls going here.

[B]

This is exciting.

[A]

This is a funny story. Somebody, this guy had got. Took a bus 12 hours to see Tim. Like, he had traveled from the northernmost parts of Canada. And so I was saying to him, I'm like, I'm so jealous. Like, you get all these boys that come, and there's never any girls at the show who are like, hey, Sarah, you know, I traveled a million years to be here or whatever. And then. And so we were joking about this and. And then at the end of the show, these girls came backstage like little lesbians. Although I don't know that anybody identifies as a lesbian anymore. I think that makes me old. I think they're all just queer now. But hey, they were like, sarah, we just wanted to know if you wanted to, like, let us show you around town and, like, take you out. And I was like, this. I was like, that's incredible. I was like, but actually, I'm so tired and I Have another show tomorrow. And actually my back kind of went out on me and so I have to go home. Tim was like, what is wrong with you? I'm starting to go home and call my kids. And I was the most. Tim's like, that's what you call a revealed preference, Sarah. But I was just.

[B]

I was like, you're like, oh, nobody's flirting with me. I never get any attention. Nobody's ever excited to see me. It happened. It all happened for Sarah. And she just said, no, no, too much love for. And then you could still have done it and have love for your family. I was about to say, I'm editing that. You could have just enjoyed yourself, gotten flirted on, had a couple of whatever. I was about to say Cosmo, but it's lesbian, so I don't know what you guys would have drank. Guinness or whatever.

[A]

Have a couple of ices.

[B]

What'd you say?

[A]

A Molson ice.

[B]

Yeah, I have a couple Molson ices together and had a great G rated evening where you got to feel good about how people, other lesbians wanted to be around you. But you didn't do that. Instead, you sat and watched streaming in your broom with an ice pack on.

[C]

I think that you're not understanding Tim. Although I don't know for sure.

[B]

A cultural difference.

[C]

Maybe, maybe, maybe. Who can say? I'm very uncomfortable with all this thing. HR actually slacking me right now saying, move on, move on.

[A]

I would just thank those young ladies because you know what, guys? It always feels nice to be asked.

[B]

Does well.

[A]

Come to the show, friends. Come to the DC show. Can't wait to see you.

[C]

Good show. Long show, guys. I will see you next week. No tnl next week, but we'll give you some of the.

[A]

Because we're doing it live.

[C]

We're doing it live.