Episode Overview

Podcast: The Next Level
Episode: 1020 – "The Worst Case Scenario is Here... And JVL Loves It!"
Date: September 30, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

This episode delves deep into the current alarming trajectory of American politics under Trump's second term. The hosts dissect the administration’s latest moves—militarization, loyalty tests for top brass, ongoing institutional purges, and cultural corruption—while reflecting on prescient past predictions and questioning where the "worst case scenario" line really lies. The conversation is incisive, irreverent, and occasionally darkly comic, as they balance grim analysis with moments of levity, personal anecdotes, and teases about their live shows.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Quantico “Fat Elvis” Speech: Surreal Authoritarianism in Practice

• Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Event
  • Trump gathers generals and admirals at Quantico for a spectacle—delivering a speech focused on military loyalty and “domestic enemies.”
  • Hegseth’s rhetoric is reminiscent of “woke Fox News meets Tom Cruise’s character from Magnolia,” attempting to intimidate top military professionals.
    • JVL: “If you were worried about it being Triumph of the Will, that’s not what you got. What you got was fat Elvis sort of doddering around on the stage.” (06:10)
    • Tim: “He was really, really bad and old...certainly was significantly worse than any other comp that you could have made.” (15:12)
• Real Danger Amid Absurdity
  • Hosts discuss how the clownishness doesn’t negate the underlying authoritarian project—a “clown with a flamethrower.”
    • Sarah (on Trump’s speech): “He talked about changing rules of engagement...it was, ‘we’re going to straighten out America’s cities one at a time...really pound on people’.” (07:11)
  • The tension between “lethality warriors” and MAGA’s no-new-foreign-wars stance: The real target is the home front, and the “enemy within.”
    • JVL: “They do want war, just with us.” (09:32)

2. The Impact on Military and Civil Society

• Rank and File vs. Old Guard
  • The generals’ apparent lack of enthusiasm is encouraging but raises questions about the pipeline of loyalists.
    • Sarah: “This wasn’t the whooping and hollering that you get...this was the grownups. And the grownups seemed unimpressed.” (05:02)
• Danger of Normalizing the Absurd/Authoritarian
  • Concerns about the “boiling frog” effect—how much are people just adjusting to it all?
    • Tim: “You get to what’s the point, then why are we doing any of this? Let’s all just get drunk and hang out.” (45:35)
  • The risk of mass self-deportation among principled officers, leaving only loyalists behind: “The ones that are the most shocked by this...check out...and there’s another category...the mission and focus becomes these deployments into American cities.” (13:12)

3. Revisiting JVL’s “Worst Case Scenario”—and Surpassing It

• Newsletter Retrospective
  • JVL reviews his post-election piece projecting likely Trump second-term scenarios. Hosts agree reality has rapidly outpaced even his darker forecasts.
    • JVL: “We are way past all of those red lines.” (20:35)
    • Tim: “You didn’t have it... Dark JVL didn’t hypothesize a single negative externality that did not come to pass.” (21:02)
    • Sarah: “It is prescient...I couldn’t believe how on the nose your piece was in terms of predictions.” (22:24)
• Pace and Scale of Institutional Breakdown
  • Unimaginable appointments at DOJ, Defense, FBI—“If you said Cash Patel would be FBI director, would they have believed you?”
    • Sarah: “I am genuinely shocked that there hasn't been more pushback from Democrats, more pushback from the media. Like the thing that I didn't contemplate was the total laying down of civil society.” (29:05)
  • Media, corporate, and tech acquiescence is worse than anticipated: “CBS settling a ridiculous lawsuit...Apple and Meta just settled...all decide, ‘No, we're going to go along.’ I didn’t see that coming.” (30:05)

4. Where Are We on the Authoritarian Risk Curve?

• Are We in the “Worst Case” Yet?
  • Debate over whether we’ve hit the true nadir or if there’s worse to come—“We are on the curve for an 80 or 90th percentile, worst case, I think.” (42:35)
  • Dangers of despair vs. complacency—and the need for clear-eyed vigilance.
    • Tim: “It is not actually useful for [listeners] to think that we're fucked. Totally fucked. Unbelievably fucked. Now if we think that, everybody should say what they think...But I don't want people to exaggerate...” (45:22)
  • Everyday life for most people hasn’t radically changed, which masks the depth of institutional transformation.
    • Tim: “At the kids’ soccer game, it doesn’t feel like we’re in 80% worst case scenario.” (39:52)
    • Sarah: “The scary part...was them grabbing the Uber Eats drivers off their bikes...a couple show of force situations, but not everywhere you go.” (41:20)

5. Resilience of Trump’s Support

• Poll Numbers and the “Habituation” Effect
  • Trump’s polling is as strong or stronger than pre-2016, despite (or because of) escalation.
    • JVL: “His approval rating today is higher than it was exactly four years ago.” (47:08)
    • Sarah: “The reason that I think he does better today than he did seven years ago...is because of our nervous systems, is because of how we've changed. Not that he's changed.” (51:18)
  • If the election were held now, hosts are unanimous: Trump would win, regardless of the Democratic nominee.

6. Culture, Corruption, and Liberalism’s Limitations

• Right-Wing Ascendancy & Cultural Realignment
  • Trump’s administration has shifted the “economic slipstream” so that right-wing culture and corruption self-reinforce. The culture war now has concrete business incentives (media, tech, brands) behind it.
    • Sarah: “My biggest concerns around Trump are that...he won the culture by a lot more than he won the vote, and that going forward, much more of the culture is going to be right wing.” (55:41)
• Liberalism’s Weakness Against Autocratic Moves
  • Questions whether liberal democracy is structurally equipped to push back when only one side plays by the rules.
    • JVL: “Once you have corruption endemic...you can’t have it be where one party is pro corruption and the other party is anti corruption...” (57:03)
    • Tim: “I don't know if liberalism has a response to that because I want to say yes, but I don't want to shoot from the hip. So I'm going to think about that on a walk.” (61:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This was like real tiny D energy stuff.” – Sarah Longwell (00:00, 03:49)
• “What you got was fat Elvis sort of doddering around on the stage.” – JVL (06:10)
• “Drones are replacing artillery...Pull ups have fuck all to do with drone warfare. They do have a lot to do with cracking heads on the street.” – JVL (09:44)
• “It's important to put yourself in the mindset of...where your head was at...an important reference point to make sure that you don't get used to this stuff.” – Tim (26:27)
• “I am genuinely shocked that there hasn't been more pushback from Democrats, more pushback from the media. Like the thing that I didn't contemplate was the total laying down of civil society.” – Sarah (29:05)
• “We are way past all of those red lines.” – JVL (20:35)
• “Trump built an economic slipstream behind him. He built an incentive structure for his kind of heterodoxy that propels right wing media.” – Sarah (55:41)
• “At the kids’ soccer game, it doesn’t feel like we’re in 80% worst case scenario.” – Tim (39:52)
• “He wins again today, 100%.” – Tim (51:02)
• “It's just uniform agreement...he absolutely, definitely would win.” – Tim (51:40)
• Live show anecdote: little lesbians in Toronto try to invite Sarah out, “But actually, I'm so tired and I have another show tomorrow...” – Sarah (63:32)

Section Timestamps

• 00:00–07:10: Trump/Hegseth Quantico event breakdown; MAGA’s “warrior” paradox
• 07:11–14:31: Policy speech content & military as tool of domestic crackdown
• 14:31–17:09: Trump’s performance, cognitive decline, and generals’ likely reactions
• 18:53–24:31: JVL’s “worst case” newsletter review—prescience and missed predictions
• 24:31–34:21: Immigration, institutional purges, and the breakdown of checks and balances
• 34:21–43:59: The pace, scope, and gradation of authoritarian advance vs. everyday life
• 43:59–47:20: The utility of “gradients of badness” and preventing despair/complacency
• 47:20–53:34: Trump’s poll resilience and American habituation to the abnormal
• 53:34–59:34: Cultural change under Trump; right-wing incentives and the Saudi comedy festival
• 59:34–62:05: TikTok, algorithm control, corruption, and can liberalism respond?
• 62:05–end: Announcements, live show stories, comic wrap-up

Concluding Takeaways

The hosts agree: American political and social life is in uncharted territory—one that has outpaced even recent dire predictions. While daily life for the median citizen remains familiar, the fundamental guardrails are buckling, institutional resistance is thin, and right-wing culture and corruption are rapidly normalizing. The prospects for organized liberal pushback are in doubt, as the guests debate whether we are already beyond the point of return, or if there is still time—and desire—for a course correction.

All this, as Tim sharply notes, “doesn’t feel that way” to most people, yet the institutional and cultural transformation is both real and accelerating.

Next week: The gang will record together in D.C.—and, for those lucky enough to score tickets, in New York. As always, listeners are urged to stay clear-eyed, engaged, and aware of the stakes—without surrendering to either despair or denial.