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- [00:02]
A
Hey there, friends. It's JVL and Sarah. But no Tim, we got the secret pod coming at you.
- [00:08]
B
What's up, guys? Can't wait. Want to talk shutdown? Shutdown showdown. Jbl. Should we do that?
- [00:13]
A
There's a lot of news. A lot of news. It's a big show. People are going to like it. So, you know, enjoy. When we're done, I don't know, subscribe. Come join Bulwark Plus. We don't ask for much.
- [00:25]
B
Yeah, don't you want JBL to yell at you more? Come on.
- [00:29]
A
Here's the shot. Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. Sarah, people better enjoy this secret show because they ain't getting one next week.
- [00:42]
B
What's next week? Oh, we're live.
- [00:44]
A
We're live twice next week.
- [00:46]
B
Twice. Oh, and we should say at the top that there are like a handful of DC which we have a very big venue in DC Guys, help us fill it to the top. We've got some. Still got a few tickets left. Maybe like a hundred. So come on, stragglers, let's go.
- [01:03]
A
Yeah, yeah. Come to. Come to the show. It'll be a good time. Those things are great. All right, so, very big show today because there's a lot of stuff going on and we should start by talking about shutdown politics because I feel like the Will Ferrell from Zoolander meme, like the. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. And I. I'm actually writing about this today. And so I would just like to hear your thoughts because my. I'll just lay it out. My table stakes here are. The Democrats are a bunch of fucking pussies. And if they can't win this, a shutdown fight in which the Republicans control the White House, the House, the Senate, the Supreme Court, jobs are moving backwards, the economy is getting recessionary, and Trump is a net negative 11 underwater and approval. They should just retire. Every single one of them should retire. They should shut the party down, turn the lights off on their way out the door, because this is the best ground you're ever going to get. And if you can't win this and extract real pain from. From Trump and use this to really hurt him, then what are you even doing?
- [02:28]
B
Yeah, man, I didn't know that was your take.
- [02:30]
A
That's basically my. My take. And it. And it goes from there to that. The Democrats ask on. This is insane.
- [02:39]
B
I know it is.
- [02:41]
A
Democrats are saying, here's the shutdown and it's really hurting you, Mr. President.
- [02:48]
B
But what.
- [02:49]
A
So what we want is we'll help you.
- [02:51]
B
We'll.
- [02:52]
A
We'll help you get out of this thing. But what you have to do is you have to not do these things that will make you unpopular next year. Going into the midterms, you did these things, and they're really bad, and they're going to hurt people and make you unpopular. So we would like you to not do the things that are going to hurt you politically, and then we'll help you politically. Are you fucking kidding me?
- [03:16]
B
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is just tweeting out AI memes and like, of Hakeem Jeffries in a sombrero and a big mustache, threatening to make the sombrero bigger the longer the shutdown goes on. And that is like, I want Democrats to realize you're not dealing with rational actors. You're not dealing with good faith actors. And there's. They know that. Right. The problem is, is you can make a deal with Republic Republicans which will. They won't abide by and which Donald Trump will just do whatever he wants. That is clear. Can I just say, actually, actually funny because our roles are slightly reversed because, I don't know, maybe we're just chronically incapable of agreeing with each other, you and I. But I actually think that some of the Democrats, like, they haven't caved yet, which to me is a big win because I will tell you, they are exceeding my expectations currently. And the reason is the night that the shutdown was happening, I was watching my Twitter feed being like, oh, Cortez masto, what are you doing? Like, I was watching the three caves happen in the Senate. And like, we knew Fetterman was going to cave, but I was just like, no, no, don't. What are you, what are you doing? Like, if you're gonna, if you're, if your colleagues are gonna shut it down. And I was like, schumer, what are you doing? How do you let three of your guys walk away on this? What is wrong with you? So anyway, so I'm actually. The fact that they are still shut down and that Democrats messaging seems to be getting increasingly better by the day, to me is a positive sign. Like, they seem to be going in the correct direction, not the wrong one. I don't feel like we are closer to a fake deal that is just giving Republicans what they want. I will say I have some notes, if any Democrats would like to hear them.
- [05:15]
A
I would like to hear them. But can I just first get your. Your, just your reaction to the idea that Democrats should be saving Republicans from the political pain they caused with. Because that's what this is, right? The Democrats position is the big beautiful bill cuts all of these Medicaid subsidies and, and those are going to hurt people and be really unpopular. So please, pretty please undo the one really unpopular thing that you did last year.
- [05:51]
B
You know, it's funny you mentioned this. Are you kidding me? I was thinking about this this morning and I was like, okay, because what?
- [05:57]
A
Because voters are going to say in November of 2026, oh, those Democrats deserve a lot of credit for saving us from the bad thing that never happened.
- [06:08]
B
Well, let me ask you a real question on this, a real tactical question. Hold on. Just, just grapple with this for one second. Is it better if you're a Democrat to be able to say Republicans did this and we fought for you and we won, or is it better for Democrats to lose on this, people feel the pain and Democrats be. See what they're doing to you?
- [06:30]
A
I mean, this isn't even close. This isn't even close. The answer is the second. Just, I mean, tell me for real, when is the last time American voters gave any political party credit for a bad thing they prevented? Yeah, the answer is never.
- [06:52]
B
I think that's probably right. I do think in 2018, this is the thing. In 2018, Democrats ran on health care. They won bigly. And so now they sort of are like, well, this is our safest playbook in a, in a, in a world in which Democrats cannot seem to find their footing at all. This is, this is ground they can all sort of agree on. They can keep everybody together on. And people know how to talk about. But I really do agree. So you don't want people to actually lose their health care. You don't want premiums to skyrocket. Right? It's these. And this is.
- [07:27]
A
Sure you do.
- [07:28]
B
I know, I know. It's a political question versus a real pain that people experience question.
- [07:34]
A
I'm sorry, can I just keep interrupting you? I feel like, no, it's okay. But in 2012, 2014, 2010, 28, 1988, 1990, any other political time, I would say, sure, try to get better policy outcomes for real people. Because you know what, like who fucking cares if you pick up five seats versus 15 seats or whatever. Like nothing real is riding on this. We're all operating between the 40 yard lines. Five days ago, the President United States brought every flag officer in the United States military into a room and told them that he's going to use their troops against American Citizens, we have Reagan appointed judges issuing 161 page opinions saying, hey guys, the very foundations of our Constitution are under assault by this government. This is the time I'm like, I'm sorry, policy does not matter at all. Right now. The only thing that matters is power.
- [08:34]
B
Yeah, I agree, I agree with you. More importantly, this is so, I agree with you. I'm sort of playing devil's advocate, but you're so lit up about it that I don't have anywhere to go with that. Here's, here's the thing that's been bothering me, which is I understand why Democrats feel like they have to fight on the health care side. Right. My, in terms of messaging. But Dan Pfeiffer and I talk about this on the, on the focus group pod, which is excellent, by the way. Dropping tomorrow, which is Saturday focus group without me. You'll be on. You'll be on.
- [09:09]
A
You got bumped. I was supposed to be on and I got bumped now never getting back.
- [09:13]
B
No, you got bumped the week of the Charlie Kirk shooting. I'm sure we will have you back. But Pfeiffer and I talk a lot about the shutdown politics and we have some focus group sound on it. But like your policy and your messaging don't have to align perfectly. Democrats, like, you can negotiate on health care, whatever, and still have more messaging in the tank. Because here is, if I were, if I were a Democrat. Right. Right now all the discourse is like, who wins the shutdown narrative? Which by the way, all the polling done on this is in line with what, I don't know. I've, I, I don't know if I've said it on the shows or if I was saying it on a panel or what. But like the party in power will be the one to get the blame. Like that is, that was true when it was Biden. That is true now. Right. The majority of people, they only know the names of like three people in the government. One of them is Donald Trump. The government is shut down. They assume Donald Trump is doing something annoying. Now, that doesn't mean Democrats don't have to continue to fight for the narrative dominance on this. But here's the thing. Do not waste this emergency on just talking about health care. The reason you're shutting down the government, guys, is because Donald Trump is behaving entirely corruptly. It is because Donald Trump is not listening to Congress. He's ignoring Congress. He's ignoring the Supreme Court. He is weaponizing the military. He is attacking free speech. And you're not going to fund a government this corrupt, you're not going to fund a government that's taught, that's putting American soldiers on the streets to go after other Americans. Like, this is an opportunity to talk about the bouquet of things that Donald Trump is doing with the government that you will not abide. Don't talk about whether you win or lose the shutdown. Be the hero of the shutdown. It's okay, actually, to own the shutdown. A year later. It's actually okay if instead of people blaming you, people say, this is how Democrats are fighting for us. They don't have a lot of tools. They're here to make sure that Donald Trump's corrupt government has to make some changes, which is why they should be negotiating not just on, like the health care ECA and do the premiums go up? But, but, like, that's not the. Oh, that's not the. It's not even the top 10 biggest problems now. And I agree on kitchen table issues, that's fine. But, like, these are the messaging opportunities and this is where you need all your messengers, you need all your messages, and you need a lot of volume, right? Everything, everywhere, all at once. And go on offense on this. Don't sit back and be like, oh, who are they going to blame? I need to look at some polling and do some focus groups. Don't worry, guys, we'll take care of that. People will pull people to focus groups. Stand by your convictions here. This is a moment to show people that you're willing to fight for the whole country.
- [12:10]
A
You know, I mean, so just as a niggling point, I mean, my message to Democrats would be shut down. We didn't do this. Shut. Republicans control the entire government. They have the votes to pass whatever they want. Now, if they can't do that because of their own incompetence and they would like to have some Democratic votes to bail them out of the mess they created for themselves, then we are here to listen. But, like, we have not shut down anything. They own the whole thing. Yep, they own the whole thing. Who's the speaker of the House? Who's the Majority Leader of the Senate? Who's the President, United States. Who's the Chief justice of Supreme Court?
- [12:56]
B
We're.
- [12:56]
A
We're just standing around here, right? I would not accept any, any ownership from anybody on anything. Would be like the very top line message I do on everything. Republicans control everything. They can pass this all on their own if they are competent. If they are not competent and they need Democratic help to bail them out, right? Not like, oh, we pass it like we. If they want, if they need us to bail them out of the mess they made, then we demand a federal law that all federal law enforcement may not wear masks and must have identifying badging and markings at all times. The Secretary of State may not have discretion to, on his own volition, just revoke visas. We are going to claw back in statutory language emergency authority powers given to the President because he's declaring a bunch of fake emergencies. And, and let me, this is my, my basic insight here is that the reason the Democrats aren't doing any of this is because in their hearts, most of them don't actually think that Trump is different. In their hearts, most of them think, I just mean the electeds, they think it's just business as usual. They don't actually believe any of this shit about democracy being on the line in liberalism. Not again. I'm painting with a very wide brush, but does Chuck Schumer really believe that this moment is any different than 2004? He's not acting like it.
- [14:44]
B
Well, those are different questions or those are different ones. In that observation, he's not acting like it is, is different from, and this is, you know, I take a lot of. Sarah, you're criticizing Democrats again. And I'm like, I don't, that's not so much it, guys. What I, what I, what it is is we would really like Democrats to win here. We, we think these guys are extremely dangerous. And I, I do often wonder why it's the Never Trumpers who often kind of just like, fight harder or are more hair on fire about what Trump is doing. And I think it's because we genuinely believe that he is a threat to democracy, and we genuinely believe that he is not just some, you know, extension of politics as usual on the Republican side. I was chatting with a woman at the airport. She came up to me, said, oh, I love your work. And I don't know, we were talking about Trump. And, you know, she said something like, wow, this is what they always wanted. This is who they always were. And, you know, I think we've had lots of conversations. We don't need to relitigate the whole thing, but I just, I don't buy the idea.
- [15:51]
A
At the voter level, that might be true, but at the elite, elective level, it isn't true.
- [15:56]
B
I don't think it's true either. I don't think it's true either way.
- [15:59]
A
I don't think it's necessarily, I would, I could, we could have a long discussion about it was always a strain. It was not dominant at the elected level.
- [16:09]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [16:11]
A
Mitt Romney was never doing this. George W. Bush was never like none of the, I'm sorry, it's just, it's just true.
- [16:19]
B
Yeah. And, and a lot has changed, guys. The way social media has warped people. Like there's just, things are categorically different in lots of ways. Not to say there wasn't a strain of this, but this was not our politics before. It is deeply dangerous. We, we believe it and so we.
- [16:36]
A
Are, I think Democratic voters believe it too.
- [16:38]
B
I do too. I do too.
- [16:39]
A
Elected Dems that don't.
- [16:41]
B
Well, this is, and this is where part of it is so interesting that, that their argument is like, but you guys lied before. Right? They're sort of like you, you, you're not dealing in good faith and they're, they're sort of had this personal betrayal at the Republicans they're surrounded by for not continuing the kabuki theater of doing politics outside and like dealing with them like real people inside. And instead Republicans just keep pantsing them. They just keep being like, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, pull the rug out or like, oh, we didn't know Donald Trump was going to do a rescission. We didn't know Donald Trump was going to, you know, whatever. You don't need to deal with these guys. I, your, your point of this is all them sort of is in contrast to my point. But I, I don't think it has to be. I, I, I actually, I, I like the way you're framing that quite a bit in terms of, look, they want our votes, we've got things they've got to do. They've got to stop doing all this corrupt stuff. Like I actually, I do, I think that they are not intention in that regard. I, I think the question is, yeah, they could do this on their own, but the idea that they're, they're too incompetent.
- [17:51]
A
Too incompetent is good.
- [17:52]
B
I, I think the, the, I don't think, I think the question is like what I want them to do is not necessarily own the shutdown. I want them to own the fight. I want them to own the fight. And those can be different.
- [18:06]
A
The government is shut down because Republicans are too incompetent to be able to use their majorities to pass these bills. That's why, why is the government shut down? It's because the Republicans who own the entire government are too incompetent to pass the legislation needed to keep it open. Now, I mean, that should be the message over and over and over. They don't need our votes.
- [18:27]
B
And again, not just from. I, like, if you guys keep showing me Schumer and Jeffries, I'm gonna scream. They did this, like, livestream thing where, like, they didn't have enough content to fill it. And I just, like, don't do it, guys, if you can't do it competently. I know everybody's. I know we all want you to do more, and we do, but that was just. You've got to get better at this if you're going to do it. And this should be a good practice run. Stop just putting Hakeem out there, listening to Democrats be like, well, you can't get ahead of Hakeem. What are you talking about? Every single person on the Republican side knows how to be their own political entrepreneur. Like, why don't you get a little bit of that? Stop hiding behind him. Go make your own case. Don't. This is why Democrats talk to each other, Republicans talk to voters. And I need Democrats to stop talking to each other and to start just messaging every single person out there right now. On offense. Do dominance narrative.
- [19:31]
A
Sarah.
- [19:33]
B
Yeah.
- [19:33]
A
You're not going to want to hear this, and I don't want to be the one to say it. And I don't want to hear it. I don't want to say it either. I'll put your coffee down first.
- [19:41]
B
It's tea. My throat's tickly.
- [19:44]
A
Do you know what Democrat gets it? Aoc Gavin Newsom.
- [19:51]
B
Yeah, I agree with that.
- [19:52]
A
So. So Gavin did something last night that is the single most hopeful thing I have seen from a national elected Democrat in I don't know how long, which is. We at the breaking news yesterday that the Trump administration has put out proposal to nine different universities. Basically trying to break them and saying that, you know, you're gonna. We're gonna withhold federal, Federal, federal grants to you unless you do X, Y and Z, which is just pure urbanism. This is Hungary. This is total authoritarian. And Newsom's response was, any college that gets money from the state of California that caves to the authoritarians, we're gonna cut you off.
- [20:41]
B
Mm.
- [20:43]
A
That'S perfect.
- [20:44]
B
It is.
- [20:46]
A
That is the exact. You and I, we talked about this. I think you and I talked about this last week, or maybe the week four. Next level. This, like that question of incentives, right? Where you have these corrupt Republicans who, you know, and. And so businesses are like, yeah, we'll just make peace with them because we don't have to worry about the Democrats. Punishing us. And Newsom is like, yeah, we got to change the incentive structure here. And we had to create incentives for. To help universities realize that, no, they can't cave because there's pain for them if they cave, too.
- [21:20]
B
I talk about this.
- [21:20]
A
I am sorry. Gavin gets it.
- [21:22]
B
I talk about this with Pfeiffer.
- [21:23]
A
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Gavin gets it.
- [21:26]
B
No, he does. And Pfeiffer and I have a long conversation about this. And I was like, this is gonna put me in an insane asylum. Because Gavin Newsom is the only one right now who seems to understand. And he both. He is. What I liked about a couple of the things he's done, both in terms of the redistricting and in terms of this college pushback, was there's. What Gavin's doing on the performance artist side is like a necessary but insufficient thing. Like, you do want some people doing that. I don't necessarily think the performance art side of things, the holding up the mirror to Trump makes one presidential material. However, understanding constitutional hardball understanding. Like, just like what time it is, as the kids say, that you have to push back on this. Like Democrats sitting around playing defense all the time being like, oh, no, what if we don't have elections in 2026? I'm like, how about you make sure we have fair elections in 2026? How about every Democrat start going out there and being like, we're not going to let them do this. We're not going to let them cheat. We're not going to let them scare you. We're not going to let them put military in the streets. Stop sitting around acting like there's nothing you can do about it. What you can do is go get the public to understand. Public to understand what they're doing. And like, that you are going to fight back against this, that you're not going to let them do this.
- [22:57]
A
I mean, I'm excited to have the Bulwark Merch. It's like Sarah and JVL Gavin, 2028.
- [23:09]
B
I was at this thing. I was doing this conference type speaking thing where I was talking about.
- [23:15]
A
This is. I'm sorry, just a very quick plug for us. Like, this is why we're different. Like, you know, we're not Gavin fans, but he's. He's the one who's doing the right thing. So we'll just say it, right?
- [23:29]
B
Yeah. Well, it was. So I got this real. I was doing this conference and I was talking to them and they were like, well, who's Doing messaging well right now, in your opinion? And I was like, it's all the people I don't like on policy. Like, it's aoc, it's Mumdani, it's Newsom. Um, you know, there's just not that many of the sort of temperamental moderates, I guess, who have. They all like. It's like Gretchen Whitmer, somebody who, I would have said, hey, this is a person who, you know, could have a real political future being a. Somebody who's exciting for the voters in Michigan. She's won handily a couple times. She's decided that her pragmatism is, oh, I'm just going to work with Trump and I'm going to tell everybody how I work with Trump. And I just think if somebody's political instincts are so bad that they're like, well, I'm just going to give cover to the authoritarians. Like John Fetterman. John Fetterman is. And, and there was a while where he was just being like heterodox on a couple issues, which I was like, sorry, guys, you're gonna have to. Going to have to be tolerant of that now. He's just, he just, he clearly wants the respect of Republicans more than Democrats.
- [24:49]
A
He hates his voters.
- [24:50]
B
He does he.
- [24:51]
A
Or he, like, he just, he hates the people. I think that's what it is with vote with Fetterman at this point. Whatever isn't health related is he just. Maybe not all of his voters, but they're like the, the thing he cares about most in the world is the, the chunk of Dems who don't like him. He's decided he's going to reconfigure his entire worldview to antagonize them. And I gotta say, I don't understand what you're doing in politics if that's what you. If that's how you view the world.
- [25:21]
B
Yeah, because you know who has 60, 60% approval in Pennsylvania?
- [25:26]
A
Who, who's that, Sarah?
- [25:27]
B
Josh Shapiro. He's gonna crush in his race. But. And I hope, I hope after he does, he comes out swinging. I think there's, I think there's two paths to the presidency in 2028. One is to be a real leader right now. And there's really only a couple people who are doing that. And I think that if you have political aspirations for your future Democrats, the best thing you can do right now is stand up for your country. And also to JBL's earlier point, I meant to say this. This is my biggest beef and frustration with Democrats, if you think that democracy is on the line, act like it. That's it. That's all I want from you. I want you to behave as though you believe the words coming out of your mouth. Act like it. Because it is. Actually, it's true that it is. So let's see you fight for it if it was truly on the lane. Because this was your point earlier, and I make this point all the time. My frustration about Biden and everything else is everyone acts like it's like a. A little business as usual. Like we're still playing regular politics. No, we're not. And you say you are not. Then why would.
- [26:36]
A
You saw the speech at Quantico. Like, I just don't know what else, you know. I don't know what else you want, people. All right, Sarah, we gotta take the rest of the show behind the curtain.
- [26:48]
B
Oh, I've got so many. Jv. I was like, what do you want to talk about today? And I was like, I sent him a list of 13 things. Yeah, so we're gonna go talk about all those guys.
- [26:58]
A
Come and come and support us. Like, we. We gotta. We're getting big. We gotta keep getting bigger because that's. That's where the power is and the saving. This thing is gonna require all of us. So come get on the inside. Join the community.
- [27:16]
B
Tell your friends, say, turn them on to the bulwark. That is the number one thing, you know, jbl, you didn't. You didn't come to Toronto. But in Toronto, the number of people who, like, brought a friend to the show to be like, I want to just see. Or, like, brought their kid. Poor kid. Being dragged along by her mom. But this is. Yeah, tell your friends about, like, we're your favorite band.