Podcast Summary: The Next Level

Episode 1028: MAGA’s Tough-Guy Civil War
Date: October 29, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)
Podcast: The Bulwark

Episode Overview

This episode explores escalating chaos and power struggles within Trump-era federal agencies, notably ICE and HHS, and examines the political motivations and consequences of tough-guy posturing in MAGA and Trump-aligned circles. The hosts also discuss current U.S. military actions in Venezuela, the ongoing fracturing within both major parties, and dissect a widely debated “Deciding to Win” memo advising Democrats on how to regain lost voters. The episode’s tone is a blend of incisive political analysis and signature Bulwark banter, peppered with frank assessments and gallows humor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. ICE Purge and the ‘Tough Guy’ Ascendancy

Starting ~01:00

• ICE Leadership Shakeup: The show opens with the dramatic “purge” of ICE, where so-called “woke DEI leadership” is being pushed aside for hardliner, mission-focused actors.
• Night of the Long Knives Analogy: JVL likens the reshuffle to historical purges, hinting at internal consolidation of power by more extreme elements (03:00).
• Border Patrol vs. ICE Friction: The hosts distinguish between ICE’s previous focus on “criminals” (Tom Homan’s legacy) and the Border Patrol's more aggressive, numbers-driven tactics, favored by Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski (06:07).
• Political Motivation: Sarah speculates this “numbers obsession” may be part of Kristi Noem’s presidential ambitions, to be able to tout high deportation numbers for GOP primary appeal (07:00).
• Stephen Miller's Influence: Multiple times, the hosts underscore Stephen Miller as an ideological driver pushing for maximalist deportations, driven by nativist goals (08:53).

Notable Quote:
“Stephen Miller just wants all these people out of the country. He wants a white country. That’s why Stephen Miller does this.” — Tim Miller (08:53)

2. The Rise of Greg Bavino and Performative Authoritarianism

~02:36 and 09:45

• Bavino’s Persona: The hosts discuss Greg Bavino, the newly prominent ICE figure, whose performative command gestures and “warlord” imagery on video are described as “propagandistic,” with clear intimidation and public relations objectives.
• Spectacle vs. Strategy: Tim deconstructs a widely circulated video of Bavino, arguing the whole presentation is about posturing—camo-clad federal agents acting as soldiers, staging an “anonymous, local strongman” narrative rather than efficient police work (10:06).

Notable Quote:
“The entire purpose of this is propagandistic. It is to show that the CBP folks...are soldiers, not police officers; portray them as anonymous, and project this guy as the local strongman, the local warlord.” — Tim Miller (11:31)

3. White Nationalist Imagery & Agitprop

~13:49

• “Whites Only” Policy: JVL bluntly calls out what he sees as an unabashed white nationalist orientation in current immigration policy—“a whites-only refugee policy” and retro, 1950s-style government propaganda.
• Trolling the Left: The administration is intentionally provoking outrage, couching exclusionary policies in “jokey stuff” to make critics seem hysterical or out of touch.

Notable Quote:
“There are people in the administration that just fundamentally want the country to be whiter. That is the objective...and they’re not really hiding it.” — JVL (14:16)

4. HHS Power Struggle: The Stephen Hatfill Saga

~15:21

• Who is Stephen Hatfill?: A walk through Hatfill’s history, from “anthrax inquiry” scapegoat post-9/11 to COVID-skeptic Trump influencer, now ousted from a senior advisor role at RFK’s HHS.
• Conspiracy & Paranoia: Hatfill claims he was removed as part of an internal coup to undermine Kennedy, exemplifying the kind of erratic infighting that’s become routine in this administration (19:00).
• Weirdness of RFK World: The episode’s aside on Hatfill underscores how fringe and ideologically fragmented the universe around RFK’s administration has become (20:34).

5. Metaphorical and Literal Demolition: The White House Ballroom

~22:01

• Ballroom Debates: The hosts debate the fate of Trump’s controversial White House ballroom, oscillating between “burn it down” sentiment and practical indifference (“Most people do not care!”—Tim), using it as a metaphor for deeper anxieties about symbolic destruction of democracy.
• Political (In)Significance: Tim notes, “Any candidate who won’t just push the button to get rid of this ballroom doesn’t have the stones to do the hard stuff” (24:29), but they ultimately conclude this is a sideshow issue for the highly engaged, not average voters.

6. U.S. Military Escalation in Venezuela

~30:38

• Summary Executions & Oil Speculation: The administration has sunk multiple Venezuelan ships “with tremendous firepower,” allegedly targeting drug boats, but with little evidence or transparency. Fifty-seven deaths, no investigations, and “summary executions” at sea spark alarm.
• Motivation Questions:
  • Is military aggression popular with the MAGA base? “Yes, it is relatively popular right now,” notes Sarah (33:22).
  • Is regime change the ultimate goal? The hosts speculate the U.S. wants to pressure or topple Maduro, and Trump may want to use such an event for global intimidation or domestic clout (39:42).
• Indifference & Lack of Oversight: All agree it’s “absolutely insane” how little criticism or scrutiny these actions have received (36:32).

Notable Quote:
“We’re killing unnamed people at sea for no reason. Like literally no stated reason, except, ‘Oh, they’re drug dealers.’... And they haven’t provided any information.” — JVL (38:51)

7. Deciding to Win: The Democratic Popularism Memo

~45:55–74:00

What the Memo Asserts:

• Democrats are losing key voters (white, over-50, non-college-educated, working-class) because they focus on issues (abortion, climate, identity) that are not those voters’ priorities. Voters want jobs, immigration control, and safe communities.
• Moderation and heterodox, anti-establishment messaging are needed. The “first, decide to win” mentality means focusing relentlessly on what works for the coalition, not activist wishlists.
• Effective politics means “defining yourself” with a strong core message (“three things” voters associate you with).

Sarah’s Perspective:

• The memo resonates because it mirrors what she hears in focus groups: “The average voter is white, not college educated, and over 50...They care about immigration. They care about crime. The voters are saying…the things that you focus on—abortion, climate, identity—are not important to me.” (49:59)
• Democrats must “fiercely reckon with the world as it is, not as you want it.”

Tim’s Perspective:

• The problem isn’t just left vs. moderate, but lack of definition: “Kamala [Harris] was seen as too corporate by some, but far-left by swing voters, defined by her cultural views and identity—not by economic policy or moderation” (55:15).
• Heterodoxy—not conventional moderation—is the path; voters want figures who transcend or break with party lines.

JVL’s Perspective:

• Skeptical that “just do what I like” is a real solution: “What this memo triggers in me is skepticism… I have no confidence this is the path back to winning” (46:35).
• Calls for “economic populism” and a clear identity, but warns against mere defense of the status quo.

Notable Quotes:

• “Voters...see the Democratic Party as out of touch. The percentage who see the Republican Party as out of touch has decreased slightly because they see [GOP] as more economically populist... It is 100% the takeaway from my focus groups.” — Sarah Longwell (59:31)
• “Being a moderate...is being heterodox. And that is why the response you get from left-wing people is: ‘What worked for Trump…won’t work for Democrats’...because the coalition is different.” — Tim Miller (63:15)

8. How Should Democrats Respond?

~67:02–74:00

• Sarah: Proposes making “jobs, hiring, helping people” the only Democratic brand. More teachers, cops, nurses, focus on building—“Don’t call it human infrastructure. Call it what it is” (71:15).
• Tim: Pushes back, asking for practical policy translation and wonders if “whiteboard” proposals like “Medicare for All” or “20 million new houses” are enough (70:12).
• JVL: The challenge is clear, simple messaging: “What are the two or three things they need to know about you? …I care about you having access to work...And the other thing is, what makes you different from the Democratic Party” (68:48).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On White Nationalism & Performative Politics:

  • “There are people in the administration that just fundamentally want the country to be whiter. That is the objective.” — JVL (14:16)
  • “This is all just an attempt to create CPB local warlords.” — Tim Miller (11:31)

• On Popularism & Democrats’ Struggles:

  • “The extent to which I am willing to subvert my personal policy preferences for electing Democrats over this insane group of MAGAs cannot be overstated.” — Sarah Longwell (65:43)
  • “First you decide to win, and then every single thing you do is in service to that act. And that is how I think about politics now.” — Sarah Longwell (66:56)

• On American (In)Attention:

  • “Most people have no idea about the White House ballroom, the East Wing. You are smart, you are plugged in, you are not like regular people out there.” — Tim Miller (25:01)

• On Democratic Messaging:

  • “If the answer is: moderates who are responsible are going to do good government things, that’s great. I’d be so happy.” — Tim Miller (74:43)

• On the Future of American Politics:

  • “It’ll just be a famous person…like John Cena, and he has no opinions on anything…and the whole country is like, ‘Yeah, I kind of like that guy.’ That’s what will really happen.” — Tim Miller (75:29)

Key Timestamps

• 01:00 — Introduction to ICE purge and power struggle
• 03:00 — “Night of the Long Knives” analogy, Bavino discussion
• 06:07 — ICE vs. Border Patrol strategies; Kristi Noem’s ambitions
• 08:53 — “Stephen Miller wants a white country”
• 09:45 — Bavino video breakdown, authoritarian optics
• 13:49 — White nationalist imagery in government messaging
• 15:21 — HHS chaos, Stephen Hatfill saga
• 19:00 — Paranoia and coup claims in HHS
• 22:01 — Ballroom/endless White House debate
• 30:38 — U.S. military strikes in Venezuela, MAGA “peacetime” hypocrisy
• 33:22 — Is Venezuela adventure MAGA-popular?
• 36:32 — Lack of scrutiny over military killings
• 38:51 — “Killing unnamed people at sea for no reason”
• 45:55 — “Deciding to Win” memo debate begins
• 49:59 — Focus group insights into real voter priorities
• 59:31 — Perceptions of Democrats as “out of touch”
• 65:43 — Sarah’s “willing to subvert for the coalition” monologue
• 71:15 — Jobs/“people who help” as key Democratic frame
• 74:00 — Wrapping up, what actually works

Episode Takeaways

• The Trump world is purging moderates in favor of performative, ideologically maximalist “strongmen” — and using media spectacle to sell it.
• Policy—especially on immigration and law enforcement—is being shaped by presidential ambitions and the “white nationalist” priorities of ideological influencers like Stephen Miller.
• The left is at risk of being permanently defined by “out of touch” issues unless it re-narrates itself as the champion of jobs, safety, and everyday worries.
• Democratic leadership, policy, and messaging must break through with a simple, heterodox identity—rooted in helping working people and targeted at the true median voter.
• Ordinary voters are far more practical and less focused on elite/activist issues than D.C. or Twitter-centric narratives admit.
• In the narrative of 2020s American politics, spectacle and surface-level “tough guy” branding—to both left and right—are outpacing substance, but winning (even by accident) trumps all for the survival of small-l liberal democracy.

End of Episode Summary