1029: Heritage Foundation Americans | Secret Podcast

Summary

The Next Level: Heritage Foundation Americans | Secret Podcast

Podcast: The Next Level (The Bulwark)
Date: October 31, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell (SL), Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

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Episode Overview

This lively "secret pod" episode focuses on the evolution and contradictions within the American right, particularly the ongoing assimilation of far-right figures and ideas by mainstream conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation. JVL and Sarah discuss the hypocrisies around socialism accusations, dissect upcoming election dynamics (with a focus on Virginia, New Jersey, and New York), and provide a humorous, pointed critique of recent political discourse and media narratives.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Hypocrisy of Socialism Accusations on the Right (00:36–18:13)

• JVL’s Rant: JVL opens with frustration about forthcoming complaints of "socialism" regarding Democrats, predicting endless commentary after progressive Zorin Mumdani becomes NYC mayor.

• Double Standard: He incisively points out Republicans now embrace or tolerate government intervention that closely resembles socialism but denounce it when associated with the left.

  “Donald Trump is doing actual... in fact, the Wall Street Journal has just said out loud, oh, yes, Donald Trump’s model is China’s state run capitalism. ...Calling something state run capitalism is a rebrand because national socialism has some uncomfortable connotations, historically speaking.” —JVL [05:20]

• Case Studies: The Biden (and Trump) Administrations’ deals with Westinghouse, Intel, and U.S. Steel cited as prime examples of government “seizing the means of production”—i.e., literal profit-share arrangements and executive authority over labor negotiations.

• Sarah’s Take: Sarah agrees, calling it “literally seizing the means of production” and emphasizing that the scale of governmental intervention under Trump dwarfs “college level socialism” espoused by Mumdani.

  “That's socialism. It's not capitalism. It is literally seizing the means of production.” —Sarah Longwell [05:12]

• COPE Strategy for JVL: Sarah advises JVL to redirect his annoyance by writing more on this double standard, arguing “you should be banging on these conservatives about their fake condemnation of...close to socialism.” [13:33–14:39]

2. Discourse about Zorin Mumdani and Media Narratives (07:31–13:21)

• Youthful Socialist Leaders: Discussion of whether Mumdani or more establishment figures (like Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, Don Jr., Rubio, J.D. Vance) represent the "future of the right."

• Media Sniping: They reference Andrew Sullivan’s criticism that “the Bulwark and MSNBC crowd” are supposedly rooting for Mumdani. Both hosts find this characterization unfair and misleading.

• Bill Kristol Kerfuffle: Bill Kristol’s supposed Mumdani “endorsement” (born mostly out of frustration with Cuomo) prompts public outrage, showing how bad-faith debates swirl on Twitter. Sarah teases people who criticize friends publicly online rather than in private:

  “Nothing says friendship like criticizing somebody in public and not talking to them about it in private. That’s what real friends do. They criticize you on Twitter in bad faith.” —Sarah Longwell [13:21]

3. Host Economic Philosophies (14:46–18:08)

• Differences of Degree: JVL describes himself as a Clintonite neoliberal, Sarah as a Reaganite-type, but both largely favor dynamic markets and innovation, disagreeing only on details.

• Current Landscape: Neither sees much current political traction for their market-friendly worldview; instead, energy on both sides is with some form of socialism—European democratic socialism on the left, Chinese-style state-directed capitalism on the right.

  “The energy now is between two different forms of socialism...on the right they’re attracted to the Chinese style state socialism...but only so long as they are in command of the economy.” —JVL [17:23]

4. Election Analysis: Virginia, New Jersey, New York (18:13–29:45)

• Preview of Coverage: They’ll do a live-stream for election night, with various Bulwark contributors analyzing results.

• Focus on Virginia:

  • Sarah shares insights from her latest focus group of “ticket splitters” in Virginia. Many voters disenchanted with Democrats only cross over for specific, scandal-driven reasons (e.g., the Jay Jones text scandal).

  • Observations on Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears: Voters conceptually liked her resume, but were dismayed by what they viewed as “lunatic” or “crazy person” behavior when exposed to more of her politics.

    “I want to like her because on paper she’s black, she’s an immigrant, she was a Marine. And…then we saw her behavior and she’s a lunatic.” —Sarah Longwell [21:09]

  • Sarah predicts the high turnout in Virginia may actually be an anti-Trump, anti-Youngkin phenomenon, contrary to older Democratic assumptions about turnout dynamics.

• Abigail Spanberger: Seen as broadly acceptable, untarnished by the Jay Jones saga, and well-positioned due to her focus on affordability. The recent “Doge” scandal is noted as big among Northern Virginia voters.

• Mikie Sherrill (New Jersey): Sarah hopes for a decisive win, ideally breaking past recent “plus five” margins. She worries “Mumdani effect” spillover could hurt Sherrill with “normies” lumping all Democrats together.

• Turnout and Backlash: General agreement that turnout is increasingly unpredictable and may cut against MAGA Republicans in these particular contexts.

5. Future of the Right: Heritage Foundation, Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes (Teased) (29:45–30:37)

• JVL transitions: Next, a spicy discussion about the Heritage Foundation, Nick Fuentes, and Tucker Carlson is coming post-paywall for secret podcast subscribers.

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Notable Quotes

• On the Right’s Embrace of Socialism:
  “The government’s deal with U.S. Steel is that the President has to personally sign off on any salary negotiations…That’s the level of state control.” —JVL [04:54]

• On Andrew Sullivan’s Bad-Faith Critique:
  “Andrew Sullivan is a silly man who argues in bad faith. I can’t believe it.” —JVL [10:37]

• On the Shrinking Middle:
  “There is very little constituency anymore for the stuff you and I like… the energy now is between two different forms of socialism.” —JVL [17:23]

• On Friendship in the Discourse:
  “Nothing says Friendship, like criticizing somebody in public and not talking to them about it in private.” —Sarah Longwell [13:21]

• On Focus Groups and Voter Attitudes:
  “Do you want a proxy for yelling at the voters? Turns out lots of people. Do you fulfill that need for them?” —Sarah Longwell [27:03]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:36–06:41: JVL’s socialism rant; examples of state intervention by the right
• 06:41–08:46: Media commentary and the Mumdani/Sullivan discourse
• 10:09–13:21: Bill Kristol, endorsements, and Twitter outrage cycles
• 13:33–15:39: Sarah prescribes a JVL writing campaign about right-wing socialism
• 15:39–18:13: Economic self-labels, the marginalization of market centrists
• 18:13–29:45: In-depth election preview (VA, NJ, NY), focus group findings, turnout analysis
• 29:45–30:37: Tease of Heritage/Fuentes/Tucker segment (subscriber only)

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Memorable Moments & Tone

• Signature Banter: JVL and Sarah’s exchanges oscillate between dry wit, exasperation at political hypocrisy, and affectionate ribbing.
• Meta-Media Awareness: They take delight in critiquing not just political actors but the broader pundit discourse, especially when it distorts or over-simplifies their own positions.
• Detailed Voter Insights: Sarah’s focus group breakdowns reveal the underlying nervousness and complexity among swing voters.

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Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode is a sharp, insightful, and often witty examination of the American political right’s current ideological crisis, the hollowness of much of the “socialism” rhetoric, and the shifting patterns in voter behavior ahead of important state elections. With concrete examples, sarcastic flair, and a behind-the-curtain peek at media and pundit feuds, JVL and Sarah manage both to inform and entertain, making the complex accessible and the superficial both enlightening and very funny.

If you want a trenchant, no-BS perspective on how power, ideology, and hypocrisy intersect in real-world politics—and how all this might play out on Election Night—this episode is essential listening.

Transcript

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[JVL]

Hey guys, it's JVL and Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Say hi, guys. I say hi.

[JVL]

I know it's secret pod day, and so to you, our next level friends, we have a banger of a secret pod. I. Yeah. Did you. Did you like it, Sarah? Did you think it was a good show?

[Sarah Longwell]

I thought. I think it's actually a particularly good show, especially if you're interested in what's happening on the right and the future of the right and why the Heritage foundation feels the need to make sure that everybody knows they're still cool with Tucker Carlson even though he's hanging out with Nick Fuentes. They want to make sure, guys, it's all good. So we have a good long episode about while we do some news up at the top. But in the back, just for you if you subscribe. The future of the right. Is it Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene? Or is it Don Jr, Marco Rubio and J.D. vance? Who knows?

[JVL]

And we're going to start you out with a little bit of socialism talk. Here's the show. Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. Sarah, how are you?

[Sarah Longwell]

What's up, man? Happy Halloween.

[JVL]

Happy Halloween. I would like to talk to you. We're gonna talk a little Halloween later, but I want to start by talking about socialism because I'm about to lose my damn mind in a pro socialist.

[Sarah Longwell]

Way or an anti socialist way. What lay out for me? This is making me nervous.

[JVL]

I understand. So I think it is safe to say that after Zorin Mumdani is elected mayor of New York next week, we will hear roughly 75 gajillion complaints about socialism. Socialism, Socialism. The Democrats are socialists. How dare they be socialists. Look at the socialism. Does that seem fair? Okay, you probably did not see, and I say this because I did not see until yesterday a news item about the federal government's new partnership with Westinghouse. Ah. Did you See this?

[Sarah Longwell]

No, but I. Now I know where you're going.

[JVL]

So the federal government has entered into a partnership.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yep.

[JVL]

With Westinghouse and the two parent companies which own Westinghouse, Cameco and bam, which stands for, I think Brookfield Asset Management. And the deal is. Okay, follow me. The President wants to build nuclear reactors. Okay. The United States government is looking to make an infrastructure type investment in building nuclear reactors. Okay. The United States government is going to spend $80 billion on this. Okay. All these things are within the normal parameters basically of how government operates. The United States government has selected Westinghouse to build the reactors. Okay, well, now we're a little closer to. Oh, isn't this picking winners and losers? In exchange for giving these contracts to Westinghouse, in addition to paying them to build the stuff, the government is also extracting a profit participation clause where they're going to take 20 cents out of every dollar Westinghouse makes. And in January of 2029, if the total market value of Westinghouse Corporation is in excess of $30 billion, the United States government can force them to conduct an IPO in which the government is given 20% of the shares of the entire company.

[Sarah Longwell]

Get out. Those are the terms.

[JVL]

Those are the terms. It will be worth more than 30 billion because the government can decide. It's going to be right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, my God. I didn't know that.

[JVL]

I understand that, Pete. Look, I think rent control is bad. I think that it is unlikely that having five city owned grocery stores in New York City will do anything meaningful. I'm a little more concerned about the federal government walking around saying, yeah, we want to build this and we're going to give this company taxpayer dollars in them. We think we're going to take a share of the company too. We're going to own that company. And this isn't the first time that they did this with intel. They own 10% of Intel. They have a golden share of it. The government. The government's deal with U.S. steel is that the President has to personally sign off on any salary negotiations that the company, which is now US Steel, conducts with its workers. That's the level of state control.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's socialism. It's not capitalism. It is literally seizing the means of production.

[JVL]

Literally. And so what I need help from you is because we are going to have, as I said, eleventy gajillion chin tugging pieces, especially from the anti. Antis about. Oh, well, I mean, I would. These. Look at these terrible people. These anti. And I, you know, I can't support them because they're just socialists. Donald Trump is doing actual like, in fact, the Wall Street Journal has just said out loud, oh, yes, Donald Trump's model is China's state run capitalism. I'm sorry, it's not state run capitalism. It is national socialism. Calling something state run capitalism is a rebrand because national socialism has some uncomfortable connotations, historically speaking.

[Sarah Longwell]

Also, state run capitalism is an oxymoron.

[Advertisement Voice]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's like jumbo shrimp. It's like, you can't have state run capitalism.

[JVL]

So I, I'm just, I'm losing my mind ahead of time because I know what's going to happen the minute the race is called for Mamdani and we're going to hear nothing but who Socialism, socialism, socialism from the people who are all, either, all on board with Trump socialism. We're basically willing to tolerate it because that's the real. That's the big socialism that's happening.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, this is a great take. Totally true. I 100% agree with it and I will. The only. Let's see if I have any pushback. It's going to be that I sort of feel like Mamdani's socialism is like, is not the thing that I object to even that much. Like, it's sort of the socialism stuff that he's doing is more kind of silly. It's like small ball stuff. And I, and this is one of those where it's like, let's see how he governs because he's gonna get into office and realize, oh my goodness, affordability issues and this city or are deeply difficult to tackle. And my ideas don't come close to scratching the surface on how we do this.

[JVL]

New York is an affordable place to live is a sentence never uttered by anybody ever.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, right. And so, you know, I think it's one of those things where I have on, on Mumdani, I'm a little bit like, let this young man get in there and see, see what he's dealing with. It's all fun to be like, yes, we make all this stuff free until you actually sit in the seat and go, oh, I see why this is not doable. Or I, this is, you know, not going to work. Okay. You know, my bigger issues with Mamdani are, are around his past. The way that he has talked about Israel not. And the way that he has comported himself on that issue. More. More like he's hasn't been good. He's an activist class. Like, I protest on college campuses and it's like, I am neither. But He's a really good. This is where I saw Andrew Sullivan. Sorry, this is, uh. There's two points I want to make on. On the Mumdani thing that are a little discourse on the discoursey with apologies. One is Andrew Sullivan did this weird drive by on us last week where. And I read his substack, but he said that the Bulwark and MSNBC crowd were going to be thrilled by Mamdani or he used some phrase. Do you remember what it was?

[JVL]

I don't.

[Sarah Longwell]

No.

[JVL]

Self righteousness or something like that. Yeah, the idea of it was like going to be super chesty and happy about Mandani, which is just. I don't think.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think that's where we are.

[JVL]

I don't think a single person at the Bulwark has been like, yeah, that Mumdani, that's great. That's awesome.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, what's funny is that I read his substack and he makes exactly the same points we make, which makes his criticism all the more disingenuous. Because the thing about Mamdani that everybody needs to take away is talking about affordability, being charismatic, listening to people, understanding the mediums that young people are engaging with. Like, those are the lessons Democrats need to learn about communications and about the messages right now that people want to hear. And so Mumdani. And so, so Sullivan's giving him credit for this in his piece. He's like, well, he's a really good communicator. And honestly, his like facile socialist ideas, you know, but he's. And so he's sort of like. He literally has the exact same opinion of him that we do, which is. We all find his. From the river to the sea activism. I mean, I find it disqualifying. But you know, there's. There's like a range of people here at the Bulwark that ranges from anti Momdani to anti anti Momdani. And, and I, I'm not sure that there's anybody who's pro Momdani. So it's like, it's such a funny way for Sullivan to do like a drive by attack on us. Like Andrew Sullivan, if you're listening, we have the exact same opinion on, on Mumi at the Bulwark that I think.

[JVL]

Andrew Sullivan is a silly man who argues in bad faith. I can't believe it.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're kidding. You know, I'll never give up on Andrew. I just read him too much in my formative years.

[JVL]

He was always this guy.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, I know.

[JVL]

He was even this guy, when he agreed with you, this, that's the thing to realize about Andrew is that, like, he will always agree with you, like 50% of the time. And he'll still be that bad faith, silly person when he's on your side that he is when he's not on your side.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I like how he writes and okay, just you and I don't have to get to a whole.

[JVL]

That's fine.

[Sarah Longwell]

The second piece of discourse on the discourse is that yesterday there was this news story going around that Bill Kristol had endorsed Mumdani. And I was like, I was like, oh, God. Because, you know, I listen to Bill all the time and he, I, I know how he feels about Mumdani, which is he's auntie anti, and he hates Cuomo and he finds the, like, the business community, lack of creativity at bringing somebody, some normal person to the table and the fact that they're going back to this sex pest, corrupt thug. He's like, no, they should be embarrassed about that. And so somebody, you know, pressed him like a kid on like, well, if you lived in New York, would you vote for Mamdani? And he was kind of like, yeah, because I'm so annoyed about the Cuomo stuff. Whatever, guys, that's not an endorsement, okay? That's not what that is. And so, like, Jonah Goldberg is like, he's like, I consider Bill a friend, but this, I do not understand how he could do this. And it led to like a whole anti. Anti. From a bunch of these bad faith people who even clearly didn't read it. Because if you read it, you, you see what Bill is doing, which is basically like, I'm so annoyed about the Cuomo stuff that, yeah, I'd vote for Mom, Donnie. Even though. And then he's like, even though he's bad on this, he's bad on this. I don't agree with him on this. Which I think is like, okay. By the way, I love when people.

[JVL]

Are looking for any excuse to say that they're not us.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know, I know.

[JVL]

That's all it is part of.

[Sarah Longwell]

I just want to say this as a funny thing. I didn't respond to this because why you guys told me not to, basically. But I wanted to, but so I'm going to say it here because I have to get it off my chest, which is this, which is this. I love when people do things like, I consider Bill a friend, but this is red, red, red, red, red, red. This is why I'm not them. I just gotta say nothing says Friendship, like criticizing somebody in public and never talking and not talking to them about it in private. That's what real friends do. They criticize you on Twitter in bad faith.

[JVL]

Boy howdy. All right, so the socialism thing, what am I Just to tell me very quickly, what is my COPE strategy? How will I prevent myself from having my head explode scanner style?

[Sarah Longwell]

I've got a solution for this. I've got a solution for this. Take your tear down that ballroom Mr. Trump energy and push it into Is this socialism? Is this socialism? Because I actually think you are 100% right. Don't write one triad about it. Write many and have it be you. We should be banging on these conservatives about their fake condemnation of the social, the DSH socialism, which is like college level socialism of Mamdani versus the entire corrupt might of the United States seizing the means of our technological production to. To pursue strategies for stealing their returns, to pump them up using the the federal government, using taxpayer dollars and then taking the returns back. That should have conservatives agitated. And you should you with your everyday writing energy, your 2,000 words. JVL. I'll read every single one of those triads.

[JVL]

Well, I'll read them all in luck for today because I got 2,000 words.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't want one Friday triad. I want them all next week. Okay.

[JVL]

Okay, I can do that. I will say, and this is. I will leave this to you too. We don't have to make this a thing because this is a lot. We have a lot of things to talk about today and this is a larger discussion. But it seems to me that the stuff you and so you and I are two sides of the free market coin. You are more of a laissez faire Reaganite, Paul Ryan type. I am more of a neoliberal Clintonite type. Which is to say I think I want more regulation than you want. I think that the government needs to like the externalities get created all the time within markets and the government's job is to try to balance those externalities and remove them. But basically we're the. Again, you and I are arguing about like 20% on the margins of the same thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Although if I just can. Because I don't just. If I can define my own economics, which is actually I'm slightly. It's less that I'm a Reaganite, although I do have some of those tendencies. It is more that I believe that people who create jobs like, I think that we should have a dynamic economy. I believe strongly in innovation. I think we should have incentive structures that lead to more innovation that allow people to get excited about starting a new business. I love, I love small business culture. I love entrepreneurialism and so I, and I, for me actually it's less because Reagan kind of draws these like trickle down big business whereas like that's not really the economy anymore. And so for me it's much more. Can you like. I think there should be. We don't want people dumping sewage into the water. Right. I don't, I'm not anti. They're being Right. That being said, I think we have over indexed on the kinds of red tape. Like I think there's, I'm not all in on abundance but I'm here on this idea of one of the reasons people like Trump is because they think he's just doing stuff. Many of them extra legal but he's.

[JVL]

Taking a 10 ownership in Intel.

[Sarah Longwell]

But people I think there's. Yeah, right. But there does.

[JVL]

He's doing stuff.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think finding a sane regulatory place is something that, that matters to me.

[JVL]

Yeah. So anyway I, I, you, this is you again. You and I are, are very close on this. I think we, we disagree on like some prudential things around the margins. It strikes me that there are, there is very little constituency anymore for the stuff you and I like.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh yeah.

[JVL]

In that the, the energy now is between two different forms of socialism and there is the European style democratic socialism which I think is, is very attractive to a lot of people left and left of center and on the right they're attracted to the Chinese style state socialism.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Where the idea as long as they're in charge. Well that's, that's the key. Right. It's state social, state command, economy stuff is what they want but only so long as they are in command of the economy. And the minute you put some brown person with a funny name in it they're like Solyndra.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Remember that? I do remember Solyndra.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do.

[JVL]

And that's the future. Okay, we need to talk about the elections because this is our last secret pod before the elections. We are going to have a live stream on the elections Tuesday night. It's going to be a big old thing. People should tune in. It's going to be great. I'm very excited about it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Wait, and just to be clear, we're going to have a bunch of the gang is going to be there to do the first hour and then we're going to do a live TNL.

[JVL]

Everybody goes live at 8 and then we come on at 9. It's going to be great. I'm quite excited about it. Where are you on this? So you've got focus group stuff coming on Virginia this weekend. And you, I'm assuming you are deeper into polls and stuff than I am. Tell me what your sense is of what the state of play is. What are you expecting, what are you looking for and what did the focus group people tell you this week about Virginia?

[Sarah Longwell]

So we talked specifically this week.

[JVL]

Sorry, that's like nine very large questions.

[Sarah Longwell]

But I'll answer all of them. This is, this is where my head is. I'm, I'm excited about the elections because this is much more my, this is my wheelhouse right now. When you just get into like the pure nerdom. This is where I get happy. But part of what's interesting is that I think they're going to be pretty different races. I think that Virginia and New Jersey and New York are going to give us sort of three different stories and it's going to be interesting in what they layer up to as a top level story. And I think there's going to be some push and pull around people wanting to say, well, Mamdani's the future and other people probably more like us saying no, Mikey Sheryl and Abigail Spanberger are the future. Now I'm most interested in the Virginia race for a few reasons. In fact, it would go Virginia. My ranking would be Virginia's the most interesting, then New Jersey, then New York. Because I don't think Virginia has a.

[JVL]

Pure MAGA proxy on the Republican side in the way that Jersey doesn't really.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. And also the down ticket now has become much more interesting because. And so who we talked to in the focus group were ticket splitters, people who were easily going to vote for Abigail Spanberger and people who are going to vote for Miaris, the Republican attorney general because of what Jay Jones, the J. Jones text messaging scandal. And it was interesting to find out sort of what kinds of people these were and basically they're Normie ish Dems. Now some of them had voted for what's his futs. Why am I blanking on his name? Who's the current governor?

[JVL]

Glenn Youngkin.

[Sarah Longwell]

Glenn Young. Not anymore. And actually the, the part of what's really interesting. So I have one of these grizzled. His name's Jeff Shapiro, not Josh Shapiro and Shapiro spelled a different way. But Jeff Shapiro is the guest and he's one of these grizzled like I worked for the Richmond times dispatch for 40 years and I know everything Every.

[JVL]

Single county in the.

[Sarah Longwell]

I love when we get the really hyper local guys on the focus group because they just have a lot to say and especially when there are newspaper people, they won't get as much into the predictions. But listening to these voters, the like extent to which they started from a place, these are really swingy voters. And I shouldn't maybe shouldn't say Normie Dems. I should say center Independents. But there were a few of them that were very like, I don't like to have to vote for Republicans. Like, don't make me vote for Republican. I'm mad I have to vote for a Republican for ag because, because of what Jay Jones did. And I just can't, you know, get on, on board with that. Oh, oh. This was the thing I was going to say about when you say a pure mag of proxy and Winston Winsome Earl Sears. There was a lot of voters in this who are like, I want to like her because on paper she's black, she's an immigrant, she was a Marine. And they all just basically said, and then we saw her behavior and she's a lunatic. And like one of the black women in the focus groups was just like, no, nope, nope, nope, nope. Can't act like this.

[JVL]

Did any of them vote for her for lieutenant governor? Isn't she the lieutenant governor elected position? Or am I misremembering that?

[Sarah Longwell]

I. I think not. Ooh. Now I'm not sure about that because they voted. Some of them had voted for Youngkin. Like there were Youngkin voters in the group, but they didn't seem to know much about her until she was running for governor.

[JVL]

Gotcha.

[Sarah Longwell]

And so there was like some people just saying, look, I wanted to like her, I gave her a shot. But she's a crazy person. Like an obvious crazy person. And so I just think that, like, I'm looking to see whether or not Virginia Abigail Spamberger goes double digits plus, I think, I think, and, and, and maybe not. But like, if you're watching the turnout right now, this is what's interesting to me. Something is changing in the country around how we perceive turnout. So in the 2024 election. So for, for a long time for Democrats, high turnout was good because a lot of those marginal voters that just turned out in a general election but never voting off your elections, they were Democrats. That's not true anymore. The high turnout of 2024 portended a Trump victory because he's the one bringing in these marginal voters. Now. Turnout in Virginia right now is extremely high. Like they've been early voting. In fact, they were early voting so early that the J. Jones thing hadn't dropped yet and people had already voted. I mean, that J. Jones thing dropped weeks ago and people were already early voting. Many people had already cast their votes. And so there's an incredibly, like, I follow Chaz Nutty Comb, who I think is really good on this and he's been following the early vote tallies in Virginia. And I, I, again, we don't know. This is why early voting, tracking early voting is a very imprecise thing because you don't know who they're voting for just because they live in places that you perceive to be more blue or more red. You just don't know.

[JVL]

I don't know the tempo effect. You don't know if these are people who otherwise, like, this is the, as you say, it's voting behaviors. And so you don't know are these new voters or these people who otherwise would have voted a week from now. Right. Like, yeah, it's very, very interesting. Okay, I'm sorry, go ahead. I'm just thinking that's it.

[Sarah Longwell]

My last, my last thought, though is that I'm going to, I'm going to take the position myself and we'll just see if I'm right or not. That the high level of turnout is an anti Trump corrective, like, anti Trump anti Yunin. Like, I think people, I think the four years of Youngin Youngin had a. He got elected as a moderate and governed MAGA and got more MAGA as things went along. And so I think that there is. Oh, and Abigail Spamberger, you know, I, I was wondering for her if the fact that she kind of took a pass on really coming down hard on Jay Jones, the fact that she, she basically said it's up to the voters. I'm not, you know, I'm not gonna. She didn't re. Endorse him, but she also didn't throw him under the bus. And I was like, is that gonna hurt her? I. I've decided not. I think just listening to the voters, it felt to me like she had really uncoupled herself and that people find her broadly acceptable and broadly. So I don't mean that in a. They just kind of. But like, they think she's good. Like, yep, she seems good and she's talking about affordability. And I think the Doge, this is the Doge stuff, really, really hit Northern Virginia.

[JVL]

Oh, my gosh.

[Sarah Longwell]

And people are pissed. So, anyway, I am most interested in that race because I think if she.

[JVL]

Even with high turnout, you think she's. She could do very well in high turnout.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do.

[JVL]

Which is again, not what we would sort of expect. Right. Like that says turnout is shifting. Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

So I'm interested just to see what the dynamic is there. That'll be a. That'll be. And it's also, it's an interesting one from a Virginia standpoint. Virginia's got a couple other things. They are one of the states and she recently said she would be for it. They're talking about the mid cycle redistricting and so, you know, playing power politics right out of the gate. That would be interesting for her. So that, that one's interesting. And then for Mikey Sherliker, you know, I guess what I'd like to see. You talked about this when we did the focus group pod and I like you.

[JVL]

How are the numbers on that show? Did it do okay?

[Sarah Longwell]

Did. Yes, it did. You know how it.

[JVL]

I don't know. I don't know how. I have not looked at all. Do people like it when I'm on the focus group?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, people who talk to us, people who share their opinions in the comments certainly liked you on the.

[JVL]

How about on the numbers though? The downloads pretty good for, you know.

[Sarah Longwell]

It depends on what people want to get out of the focus groups. Do you want a proxy for yelling at the voters? Turns out lots of people. Do you fulfill that need for them? Do you want somebody who you know is deep in the states, districts and all of those things who can feel.

[JVL]

Like I was able to give that too. I feel like I hit all quadrants.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

That was really a. You were a great performance by me. I'm just looking for you to say jbl, honestly, maybe the best episode of the season.

[Sarah Longwell]

It was strong. It was say.

[JVL]

Maybe you don't have to definitively say.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, also weirdly, people were still mad at the voters in that episode, even though I thought, well, this is what. I guess it's just having you on. People get into the posture of wanting to be mad at the voters where they were like a pretty swingy, undecided, thoughtful, not idiot like. Or I found them perfectly palatable compared to some of what I hear. Not you. Not you.

[JVL]

You love all God's children.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do. I think that Mikey Sheryl needs a big performance like what you really want out of this. What I'm hoping for is that she's been running much closer in the polls with Chitterelli and I would like to see her break away and do better than all the Backsliding. We saw like plus fives. Not good enough. I want her to get into a plus seven or eight.

[JVL]

Okay, that's what you want. But what do you feel, think she's going to get? I mean, do you have a. Because I don't. I don't have any sense.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, I do think that the Trump backlash is going to be real. Like, I want to see a real corrective. It should be. And I think this is the thing, is if, if that energy is not there with his poll numbers, where they are, with the frustration that I know people have with the, like, here's the thing for Democrats right now. And I worry about Mikey a little bit being so close to New York because I think she's probably catching some of the mumdani. Like, normies are like, well, we don't want Democrats, you know, and they lump them together. And I think that could be a problem for her in a way that it's not impacting Abigail Spanberger? I don't know. Do you catch any of that since you live in both cities?

[JVL]

You know, I.

[Sarah Longwell]

Both New Jersey and New York.

[JVL]

I don't. I think the. I think the. What it is is there's just a ton of excitement for her. Like, this is the thing. And I. This is a race where if you told me it was plus eight, I'd say, yep, I can see that. If you told me she squeaks it out plus three, I could also squeeze it out.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I could see it.

[JVL]

I won't be surprised either way. I would be surprised either more than eight or less than three. Does that make sense to you?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I do. It makes perfect sense just for me because she is sort of a very baseline Democrat. What you can measure against her is the anti Trump backlash.

[JVL]

Yeah, but it's harder because Cittarelli isn't a pure Trump surrogate. Right. This is the other. I mean, he's much more youngkinish in that way. I mean, he isn't. He's nothing like Glenn Youngkin, like WASP versus Italian. But. All right, listen, we got to talk about Nick Fuentes and the Heritage foundation and Tucker Car Carlson and all that stuff. And it's going to be a little spicy, but we're going to do that on the other side. So, hey, if you're listening to us on the TNL feed, just come and join.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're going to love it.

[JVL]

It's a good show. It's a good show. Come be with us.

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