The Next Level – Episode 1030: Voters Everywhere Strike Back Against Trumpism

Date: November 5, 2025
Host: The Bulwark (Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last “JVL”)

Overview

This live episode of The Next Level brings together Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and JVL to break down a massive night in American politics—a sweeping slate of Democratic victories across the country that signal a significant voter rebuke to Trumpism. The conversation dives into key gubernatorial and down-ballot races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, voter trends, the Republican crack-up, and what Tuesday’s results say about the future for both parties.

Tone: Spirited, irreverent, hopeful, but laced with realism and Beltway anxiety.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Virginia: A Landslide and a Template for Normie Democrats

• Abigail Spanberger’s Historic Win
  • Spanberger trends toward 55%—possibly the biggest Democratic gubernatorial margin in 30 years. (01:13)
  • Dems heading for a 56-44 majority in the House of Delegates.
• Turnout and Voter Shifts
  • Exceptionally high turnout, approaching presidential-year levels (02:33).
  • Every county in VA moves blue; Spanberger makes inroads among “normies,” Youngkin-Spanberger ticket splitters, suburbanites, exurbs (Loudoun and Spotsylvania counties).
• Lessons for Democrats
  • “This is a big victory for the normies...”
    — Sarah Longwell [02:33]
  • Virginia voters reward candidates that fit their districts, not parties running on nationalized platforms.
  • High impact of government shutdown and perceived negative consequences for GOP with federal workers.

2. New Jersey: Overperformance Across the Board

• Mikie Sherrill’s Surprising Numbers
  • Leads Kamala Harris’ presidential performance, possibly ending +8 or +9, well above expectations (09:16–09:39).
  • “She is just hitting numbers all over...”
    — JVL [09:30]
• Hispanic and Urban Voters
  • Massive swings in traditionally GOP-leaning Hispanic precincts (e.g., Passaic County, Union City; see 11:13, 12:02).
  • Trump previously gained support among these voters but early returns and exit polls suggest immigration rhetoric may now be backfiring.

3. New York: The Mamdani Model and the Power of Engagement

• Zoran Mamdani and Record Turnout
  • 2+ million votes in the NYC mayoral—highest since 1969 (18:41).
  • His campaign energized disengaged voters, especially through anti-establishment, pro-Palestinian, and “rent-is-too-high” messaging.
• Tactics That Work
  • Social media, in-person engagement, and authenticity.
  • “People see themselves reflected back in the people that he was listening to. ... People did want to feel heard.”
    — Sarah Longwell [21:49]
• The Big Tent Principle
  • Mamdani’s win is a tool for reaching new voters—not necessarily a formula for every race.
  • Lesson: Run candidates who authentically fit their state’s electorate.

4. The Democratic Coalition & What 2025 Tells Us About 2026

• Moderate vs. Progressive: False Choice?
  • Hosts all agree that “Democrats need to nominate people that work in those states.”
    — Sarah Longwell [23:09]
• Negative Partisanship
  • Ticket-splitting persists but the anti-Trump/anti-GOP sentiment strengthens straight-ticket Dem voting.
  • “All of us are so driven by negative partisanship...”
    — Tim Miller [14:47]
• Trifectas and Redistricting
  • Discusses the huge implications for redistricting, especially as Democrats gain trifectas in Virginia and possibly elsewhere (38:13–39:29, 68:53–71:17).

5. Republican Crack-up, Civil War, and Trump’s Waning Magic

• Trump as a Liability
  • Trump’s inability to drive turnout when not on the ballot directly exposes the weakness of his personal coalition (28:38–29:07).
  • “The real results of tonight, the lesson is that like Donald Trump is weak and he is not riding on a massive mandate of support and there was not like some permanent shift to him and people have not accepted the great MAGA future.”
    — Tim Miller [30:33]
• Internal GOP Schisms
  • The right fractures: Ben Shapiro v. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson v. Shapiro, Nick Fuentes and “groypers” v. Conservative Inc. (39:42–43:13, 44:55–49:49).
  • “The normie-ish guys who made peace with Trump to keep their audiences ... All of them suddenly saying, ‘Oh my goodness, could there—Is there gambling going on in this establishment? ... Are there anti-Semites among us? I can’t believe it.’”
    — Sarah Longwell [47:01]
• After Trump: The Leadership Void
  • Without Trump, GOP faces catastrophic turnout drop-off (“Trump taught them to hate the Republican Party. ... When Trump's not there anymore, a whole bunch of people ... are not there anymore.” — Sarah Longwell [33:10]).

6. Looking Forward: Hope for Dems, Uncertainty for GOP

• Restoration of Democratic Hope
  • “I think people should just remember that, that there's a lot of swing in these voters, that it does not mean that all the trajectory heads one way. ... And if you blow Trump out in 26 ... You change, I think, a real trajectory of the country going into 2028, but more importantly, you get oversight...”
    — Sarah Longwell [75:07]
• Structural Reforms on the Table
  • Serious discussion on the possibility and pitfalls of nuking the filibuster, further Congressional reforms (59:03–61:23).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“This is a big victory for the normies... Every single county in Virginia shifted blue.”
— Sarah Longwell [02:33]

“Spamberger’s wanted by 2 [in Spotsylvania Co.] tonight. ... That tells you a lot.”
— Tim Miller [05:36]

“People are going to try to say ... this doesn’t matter that much. Whatever. No, this matters a great deal. This is the beginning of a turning point.”
— Sarah Longwell [31:06]

“The fact is, the normie-ish guys who made peace with Trump to keep their audiences on side ... All of them suddenly saying, oh my goodness, could there, is there gambling going on in this establishment? Are there anti Semites among us? I can’t believe it.”
— Sarah Longwell [47:01]

“Democrats need to nominate people that work in those states.”
— Sarah Longwell [23:09]

“The reality is the Democrats could have run a tomato can who’s a moderate or tomato can that’s a socialist in these states tonight, and they would have won...”
— Tim Miller [29:07]

“He [Mamdani] energized a lot of people who were not engaged in the last election...”
— Tim Miller [21:18]

“He [Trump] cannot turn out the vote unless he is on the ballot and that is never happening again.”
— Quoting Eric Erickson via JVL [28:38]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Virginia Blowout & Normie Dems: [01:13]–[04:31]
• Turnout and Suburban Shift: [02:33]–[05:33]
• NJ—Hispanic Vote Shift & Overperformance: [11:13]–[12:35]
• NYC—Zoran Mamdani & Engaging New Voters: [18:41]–[24:02]
• Dem Big Tent & State-Fit Candidates: [22:24]–[25:26]
• Republican Crack-up/Civil War: [39:42]–[49:49]
• Trump’s Waning Appeal & GOP’s Post-Trump Dilemma: [28:35]–[34:16]
• Redistricting & Implications for 2026: [38:11]–[39:29]; [68:53]–[71:10]
• Restoration of Dem Hope & Offense: [75:07]–[76:29]

Additional Highlights

• Engaging Banter & Real-Time Analysis:
  The live nature makes for a vibrant, unscripted breakdown with real-time result checks, plus tangents into pop culture and inside jokes (e.g., “Solidarity with sandwich guy” [66:22]).
• Ongoing Republican Fractures:
  Extended discussion on right-wing influencers, media splits, and the danger of the anti-Semitic fringe being mainstreamed by previously “normie” figures.
• Long-Term Implications:
  Uncertainty about who or what can succeed Trump—and the existential danger that looms for the GOP if Trump can't put his coalition together one more time.
• Emotional Honesty:
  Genuine expressions of political “trauma” and cautious hope running parallel.
  “I can’t fake it, okay? I am who I am. ... Donald Trump is still the president for like three more years. And I have trauma.” — Tim Miller [69:36]

Summary

This episode captures a pivotal electoral moment as Democrats surge nearly everywhere—thanks to both strategic candidate fit and a collective revulsion to MAGA excesses. If one lesson stands out, it’s that the future belongs to big-tent coalitions, not ideological purity tests. Meanwhile, the Republican coalition grows ever more fractious, as its “fringe” threatens to overtake its establishment.

The hosts blend political analysis with spirited, often darkly comic banter, ultimately leaving listeners with both a renewed sense of optimism and caution: victories are real, but the fight—and America’s deep political wounds—are far from over.