1030: Voters Everywhere Strike Back Against Trumpism

Summary

The Next Level – Episode 1030: Voters Everywhere Strike Back Against Trumpism

Date: November 5, 2025
Host: The Bulwark (Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last “JVL”)

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Overview

This live episode of The Next Level brings together Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and JVL to break down a massive night in American politics—a sweeping slate of Democratic victories across the country that signal a significant voter rebuke to Trumpism. The conversation dives into key gubernatorial and down-ballot races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, voter trends, the Republican crack-up, and what Tuesday’s results say about the future for both parties.

Tone: Spirited, irreverent, hopeful, but laced with realism and Beltway anxiety.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Virginia: A Landslide and a Template for Normie Democrats

• Abigail Spanberger’s Historic Win
  • Spanberger trends toward 55%—possibly the biggest Democratic gubernatorial margin in 30 years. (01:13)
  • Dems heading for a 56-44 majority in the House of Delegates.
• Turnout and Voter Shifts
  • Exceptionally high turnout, approaching presidential-year levels (02:33).
  • Every county in VA moves blue; Spanberger makes inroads among “normies,” Youngkin-Spanberger ticket splitters, suburbanites, exurbs (Loudoun and Spotsylvania counties).
• Lessons for Democrats
  • “This is a big victory for the normies...”
    — Sarah Longwell [02:33]
  • Virginia voters reward candidates that fit their districts, not parties running on nationalized platforms.
  • High impact of government shutdown and perceived negative consequences for GOP with federal workers.

2. New Jersey: Overperformance Across the Board

• Mikie Sherrill’s Surprising Numbers
  • Leads Kamala Harris’ presidential performance, possibly ending +8 or +9, well above expectations (09:16–09:39).
  • “She is just hitting numbers all over...”
    — JVL [09:30]
• Hispanic and Urban Voters
  • Massive swings in traditionally GOP-leaning Hispanic precincts (e.g., Passaic County, Union City; see 11:13, 12:02).
  • Trump previously gained support among these voters but early returns and exit polls suggest immigration rhetoric may now be backfiring.

3. New York: The Mamdani Model and the Power of Engagement

• Zoran Mamdani and Record Turnout
  • 2+ million votes in the NYC mayoral—highest since 1969 (18:41).
  • His campaign energized disengaged voters, especially through anti-establishment, pro-Palestinian, and “rent-is-too-high” messaging.
• Tactics That Work
  • Social media, in-person engagement, and authenticity.
  • “People see themselves reflected back in the people that he was listening to. ... People did want to feel heard.”
    — Sarah Longwell [21:49]
• The Big Tent Principle
  • Mamdani’s win is a tool for reaching new voters—not necessarily a formula for every race.
  • Lesson: Run candidates who authentically fit their state’s electorate.

4. The Democratic Coalition & What 2025 Tells Us About 2026

• Moderate vs. Progressive: False Choice?
  • Hosts all agree that “Democrats need to nominate people that work in those states.”
    — Sarah Longwell [23:09]
• Negative Partisanship
  • Ticket-splitting persists but the anti-Trump/anti-GOP sentiment strengthens straight-ticket Dem voting.
  • “All of us are so driven by negative partisanship...”
    — Tim Miller [14:47]
• Trifectas and Redistricting
  • Discusses the huge implications for redistricting, especially as Democrats gain trifectas in Virginia and possibly elsewhere (38:13–39:29, 68:53–71:17).

5. Republican Crack-up, Civil War, and Trump’s Waning Magic

• Trump as a Liability
  • Trump’s inability to drive turnout when not on the ballot directly exposes the weakness of his personal coalition (28:38–29:07).
  • “The real results of tonight, the lesson is that like Donald Trump is weak and he is not riding on a massive mandate of support and there was not like some permanent shift to him and people have not accepted the great MAGA future.”
    — Tim Miller [30:33]
• Internal GOP Schisms
  • The right fractures: Ben Shapiro v. Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson v. Shapiro, Nick Fuentes and “groypers” v. Conservative Inc. (39:42–43:13, 44:55–49:49).
  • “The normie-ish guys who made peace with Trump to keep their audiences ... All of them suddenly saying, ‘Oh my goodness, could there—Is there gambling going on in this establishment? ... Are there anti-Semites among us? I can’t believe it.’”
    — Sarah Longwell [47:01]
• After Trump: The Leadership Void
  • Without Trump, GOP faces catastrophic turnout drop-off (“Trump taught them to hate the Republican Party. ... When Trump's not there anymore, a whole bunch of people ... are not there anymore.” — Sarah Longwell [33:10]).

6. Looking Forward: Hope for Dems, Uncertainty for GOP

• Restoration of Democratic Hope
  • “I think people should just remember that, that there's a lot of swing in these voters, that it does not mean that all the trajectory heads one way. ... And if you blow Trump out in 26 ... You change, I think, a real trajectory of the country going into 2028, but more importantly, you get oversight...”
    — Sarah Longwell [75:07]
• Structural Reforms on the Table
  • Serious discussion on the possibility and pitfalls of nuking the filibuster, further Congressional reforms (59:03–61:23).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“This is a big victory for the normies... Every single county in Virginia shifted blue.”
— Sarah Longwell [02:33]

“Spamberger’s wanted by 2 [in Spotsylvania Co.] tonight. ... That tells you a lot.”
— Tim Miller [05:36]

“People are going to try to say ... this doesn’t matter that much. Whatever. No, this matters a great deal. This is the beginning of a turning point.”
— Sarah Longwell [31:06]

“The fact is, the normie-ish guys who made peace with Trump to keep their audiences on side ... All of them suddenly saying, oh my goodness, could there, is there gambling going on in this establishment? Are there anti Semites among us? I can’t believe it.”
— Sarah Longwell [47:01]

“Democrats need to nominate people that work in those states.”
— Sarah Longwell [23:09]

“The reality is the Democrats could have run a tomato can who’s a moderate or tomato can that’s a socialist in these states tonight, and they would have won...”
— Tim Miller [29:07]

“He [Mamdani] energized a lot of people who were not engaged in the last election...”
— Tim Miller [21:18]

“He [Trump] cannot turn out the vote unless he is on the ballot and that is never happening again.”
— Quoting Eric Erickson via JVL [28:38]

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Virginia Blowout & Normie Dems: [01:13]–[04:31]
• Turnout and Suburban Shift: [02:33]–[05:33]
• NJ—Hispanic Vote Shift & Overperformance: [11:13]–[12:35]
• NYC—Zoran Mamdani & Engaging New Voters: [18:41]–[24:02]
• Dem Big Tent & State-Fit Candidates: [22:24]–[25:26]
• Republican Crack-up/Civil War: [39:42]–[49:49]
• Trump’s Waning Appeal & GOP’s Post-Trump Dilemma: [28:35]–[34:16]
• Redistricting & Implications for 2026: [38:11]–[39:29]; [68:53]–[71:10]
• Restoration of Dem Hope & Offense: [75:07]–[76:29]

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Additional Highlights

• Engaging Banter & Real-Time Analysis:
  The live nature makes for a vibrant, unscripted breakdown with real-time result checks, plus tangents into pop culture and inside jokes (e.g., “Solidarity with sandwich guy” [66:22]).
• Ongoing Republican Fractures:
  Extended discussion on right-wing influencers, media splits, and the danger of the anti-Semitic fringe being mainstreamed by previously “normie” figures.
• Long-Term Implications:
  Uncertainty about who or what can succeed Trump—and the existential danger that looms for the GOP if Trump can't put his coalition together one more time.
• Emotional Honesty:
  Genuine expressions of political “trauma” and cautious hope running parallel.
  “I can’t fake it, okay? I am who I am. ... Donald Trump is still the president for like three more years. And I have trauma.” — Tim Miller [69:36]

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Summary

This episode captures a pivotal electoral moment as Democrats surge nearly everywhere—thanks to both strategic candidate fit and a collective revulsion to MAGA excesses. If one lesson stands out, it’s that the future belongs to big-tent coalitions, not ideological purity tests. Meanwhile, the Republican coalition grows ever more fractious, as its “fringe” threatens to overtake its establishment.

The hosts blend political analysis with spirited, often darkly comic banter, ultimately leaving listeners with both a renewed sense of optimism and caution: victories are real, but the fight—and America’s deep political wounds—are far from over.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

Nice.

[Tim Miller]

With Downy Unstoppable you just toss wash. Wow. For all day freshness.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know what I love about tonight? We don't have to look back now. We don't have to just keep looking back. We can start looking forward.

[JVL]

We're not going back.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're not going back.

[JVL]

Hello everyone, this is jvl. Welcome to the Next level. I'm here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We are live from New York and Virginia and eventually from California and Proposition Land and also from New Jersey, which is a place I hear is is wonderful. And we are going to be doing a show for you live. It'll wind up getting posted onto the Next level feed for people who weren't able to be with us live later on. So bear with us. It'll be a little bit rougher and more wheels off than normal, guys. Not, not a big night, a huge night for Democrats, I think. And I would like to start in Virginia if that is okay with you guys. It was called first Abigail Spanberger one very big. It looks like right now she's look, she's trending towards like 55% vote share. If so, it'd be the biggest vote share for any Democrat in at least 30 years in the gubernatorial race. And Dems look like they're Gonna have a 56, 44 lead in the House of Delegates. Sarah, let's go to you first.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean this is a big victory for the normies. I look, here's the thing about Virginia that I think is super interesting. First of all, every single county in Virginia shifted blue. She is picking people up. And so I think what's happening, we won't know until we. We get it all in. But as best I can tell, what's really happening is she won all of our people. Right. The turnout in Virginia is extremely high. Not as high as the presidential year, but it's getting. It's up there. And so I think she is winning all the Democrats that turn out that are like, you know, the college educated suburban voters, a lot of the bulwark types, maybe people who weren't Democrats 10 years ago, but they are now. She's won all the normies, but there's also clearly a to ton of Youngkin Spanberger voters like she, like. And the thing that I was looking at, I don't know if you guys remember this, but I had like a little bit of election night PTSD about Loudoun county. And when you look at her, Loudoun county is the. Is the county in Virginia that when it came in on election night 2024, we all said like, this is not.

[Tim Miller]

I was like, was that a mistake? I remember we're texting underneath. I was like, is this a. I.

[Sarah Longwell]

Was asking my team, they're running and I was like, this can't be right. And that was, that was really the beginning of the end was Loudoun County. She's destroying in Loudoun County. And it's a good. You know, this is as we're just thinking about this from a nationalized politics standpoint, the idea of running the right people in the right places, like people are going to want actually sort of like the fact that Mumdani and Abigail and Mikey are all kind of on the same night because it allows you to look at what the big tent could really look like where you run the right people in the right places. Right. For the places they're in. Because Virginia is the kind of place that will overwhelmingly reject a MAGA candidate in favor of a normie. If you give them a normie that's not some old school like Terry McAuliffe, you know, and that runs a decent campaign.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah. I, Well, I have a lot of positive to say. I have like a tiny balloon pop on. On all of the excitement. Just. And these are all places also that Kamala Harris one. Right. So. And I think that a real big tent of the Democratic Party is going to need to include people kind of even beyond the Zoran to Abigail. I, I just think that's something for everybody just to think about. As far as tonight, you Know, this is a relatively like the tent needs to be even bigger than Zoran to, to Spanberger or Cheryl, whichever one you think is more moderate. That said, Spamberger wins. And you mentioned Loudon. I want to go even further out into the excerpts there. Spotsylvania County. So you get out past, you know, so for people who've been in D.C. you kind of get out, you know, either past Dulles Airport or kind of go the other way south down towards Richmond and you get into the real exurbs. Spotsylvania county has not been won by a Republican in decades. Trump won it by, I think, 16.

[JVL]

Sorry, you mean hasn't been won by a Democrat in decades.

[Tim Miller]

Excuse me. Thank you. It hasn't been won by a Democrat in decades. My apologies. Trump won by 17 in 26 or in 2016, for example, Youngkin won by 20 in 2021. Spambergers wanted by 2 tonight. And so I think that tells you a lot. We're going to learn more, I think, in New Jersey about how things looked in the Hispanic areas, but just kind of looking at one Hispanic precinct in Virginia and Manassas out there by Dulles Airport, that was a place that Trump overperformed. Spamberger is now doing better than Biden or Harris did there. So, you know, I think it's kind of an across the board thing. But it's noteworthy that, yeah, there's big turnout in blue areas and Virginia in some ways is an outlier because of Northern Virginia. The government workers, you know, are there. So that is maybe a little bit different than you'll see in some other states given the shutdown and Doge and all that. But like, the fact that she's improving in all of the places, including somewhere like Spotsylvania County, I think is pretty, pretty telling. And I guess my other thought about Virginia, maybe it's worth just chopping it up, is in the context of the shutdown, I think the Democrats gained a lot of leverage in the shutdown tonight. Right. I think there have been kind of everyone can make an argument. There can be polls, there can be questions about who is the shutdown hurting, who is it helping. It's kind of hard to make the case if you're the, if you're the Democrats, that your strategy on the shutdown hasn't been working. When you run up, you know, Assad, like margins among government, among government employees who are being affected by this in Virginia in an actual election.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, jbl, just real quickly on these numbers, though, just because somebody brought up Tim I guess brought up the. You know, these are places that Harris won. That is true, but she won by plus six in Virginia. Abigail Spanberger is putting up, like, it is possible that she is. I mean, I had predicted that she'd be up 10. Like, I had kind of stretched it. And then I got to tell you, I promised my team I would take them to Vegas if, if spanberger went 13 plus. And cheryl.

[Tim Miller]

Vegas, baby.

[Sarah Longwell]

Cheryl's got to do plus seven. She's got to do seven plus. So we're still waiting on that. I'm not sure she'll hit that, but six, seven. She might. I'm very worried. I made it. I was. I thought I set the numbers high enough that it would be tough to get, but I think we might get there, but.

[Tim Miller]

Or Sarah's got to go to Vegas. Yeah. No, Abigail Swaber is doing gerald Belial.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, A.P.

[Tim Miller]

Just called Virginia. Yeah, no, that's racism.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, no, I know, but decision desk had been the only place that had called it so far. So if the AP called it, I'm just. The margins are what's going to matter here because it's the kind of blood. I mean, even winsome Sears can't claim that that election was rigged at a double digit blowout. She'll try. Probably.

[JVL]

I mean, I mean, she could try. All right, so let's, let's move on to, let's move on to Jersey then. Let's talk a little bit of Jersey, Mikey. Cheryl outperforming the polls and Kamala Harris looking very, very good. I'm a little surprised. I don't want to say, like, hugely surprised. I think when you and I talked about this, Sarah, we had. I'd said anywhere from plus three to like, plus eight would be in the realm of like. Yeah, okay, I could see that. I mean, she's plus 15 right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I will say that's gonna, that's.

[JVL]

Not gonna, that is gonna narrow. But like, I don't know, like, she, she, she could wind up +8 +9.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know I'm gonna have to take everyone to Vegas.

[JVL]

That's not, that's not a crazy thing. She's hitting. I mean, she is just hitting numbers all over. And I, I did a deep dive on this today in the triad, and.

[Sarah Longwell]

Triad was very good today.

[JVL]

Thank you. It was very nice of you to like, point it out. Dog numbers. Not that I'm bitter about that, but, you know, I was again, just looking at raw vote totals. She's going to be much closer to what the Democrats Pull in a presidential year in, in terms of raw numbers and you know, I don't think she's gonna be at like the 2017 Chris Murphy margin which was plus 15.

[Tim Miller]

Phil Murphy.

[JVL]

Sorry, Phil Murphy, Different Murphy.

[Tim Miller]

It's not your state, so you wouldn't know.

[JVL]

Yeah, I mean they're all the same when you're in the city looking after the burbs like in Connecticut, New Jersey, like who can tell the Murphy's apart, the drop kick Murphy. Anyway, I, I just, it's pretty big and Jack Shirelli is not a bad candidate. He's actually a reasonably good fit for New Jersey. He gets the advantage of having run last time, so he is both an incumbent in the sense that a bunch of people just pulled the lever for him four years ago, but he's also, you know, the change candidate running against the, you know, incumbent Democratic Party. It's, it's just pretty impressive. And I don't know, like I, I, I was very angry at Mikey Sherrill for not simply telling voters the real truth about the world, which is that New Jersey has always been an expensive state. It's always going to be an expensive state. They should just shut their traps and be grateful for it because New Jersey is so great. And I mean, I guess this is why I don't run political campaigns.

[Sarah Longwell]

You would be such a bad politician. Just so bad at it.

[Tim Miller]

Mikey's instinct was right on that. I also wanted to, on the Hispanic stuff, I just look, if you look at Passaic county, which is the highest share of Latinos in the state, that's the inverse of what I was talking about in the other, in Virginia, this was a traditionally Democratic county, obviously Latino county. Democrats had won forever and had flipped to Trump for the first time and forever. This last time, Trump won it by a couple points. Right now Mikey is winning say county by 20. The Nate Cohen mini needle estimate is that she's going to end up winning it by 10, whatever, anywhere between 10 and that's a huge shift among Hispanic voters in particular. And I just think that speaks obviously to immigration also economy.

[JVL]

We'll see. So here's what I would tell people to look at. I've been trying to follow the returns in Union City. Union City is in, is in Hudson County. It's like right on the other side of the bridge. It's like 86% Hispanic. So huge concentration of Hispanics. And here, here is the Trump vote share over his three elections. In 2016, he got 19% of the vote in Union City. Then in 2020. He got 28% in 2024, he got 41%. He gained 22% over the course of his three runs. I, I will be.

[Tim Miller]

They liked what they saw.

[JVL]

I will be very interested, especially looking at the Will Salatan. I don't know if you guys saw Will when he was on, but he's been deep in the exit polls and I think in New Jersey, I'm pretty sure the New Jersey exits, it's like 53% of respondents said, according to the early exits, Trump's immigration stuff has gone too far. I will be interesting to see what that does to the, the Trump share in Union City and to see if that pushes him back towards his 2020 number, maybe even closer to his 2016 number. That'll be pretty, pretty interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't want to, Sorry to go back to Virginia for just one second, but if we can, because we're doing it live. Yeah, we're doing a lot. So we talked, we talked about, obviously, top of the ticket, spam burgers heading for a blowout. Such a big blowout that she appears to be pulling Jay Jones well over the line, which was one of the big questions was, would he, Jay Jones.

[JVL]

Might outperform Kamala Harris?

[Sarah Longwell]

He might. That is, that is the, like that. And I think those are the kinds of nuggets that are going to speak to how big this was. And the Jay Jones thing to me is really interesting. So we had done a Virginia focus group episode. We talked to a lot of ticket splitters and I, there clearly are a lot of ticket splitters. Like, he's going to run well behind some Spanberger. But I do think it speaks to the level of anger among Democrats, not just where they said, I'm voting blue all the way down, but also where they said, and I'm not endorsing this. I'm just telling you what I think voters said is that they're like, you know what? I am tired of us trying to say, trying to police our own side when the right does zero of that. Like, I hear this in the focus groups all day long. Like, they're basically like, I will not These, these moral lines that you, Sarah, would like people to draw still. Like, we're done drawing them. We're not going to weaken ourselves. And I think that that is, I think temperamentally, you are starting to see a shift in, in voters saying, like, I, I, I'm, I'm blue no matter who. No. You don't think so, I guess.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean, I think you can overstate that, like, what, what's the. Let's, let's pull it up right now. I mean, Spamber's up 13. And, and, and what? He's, he's up like 4, 5. And so she's running way ahead of him. And she ran way ahead of him. And particularly in, in the, in the northern part of the state. So I, There was a decent. I mean, in this day and age, like, any tickets? Pretty big deal. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I, I, it's not. I hear you, though. I mean, look, I think that partisan, in this moment, all of us are so driven by negative partisanship, you know, and if, and the degree to which people are driven by negative partisanship means that they're going to be motivated by the dislike of the other side. Right. More than they, than judging on their side. And right now, just, just I've pulled up here. So it's, it's 12 and a half, basically for Spamberger to four for Jones. So a decent, A decent. A decent.

[Sarah Longwell]

I guess I, I guess for me, I would say that in a different world, in the pre Trump era, that would have been. And that would have been race ending. Like, those texts come out and they're like, no way. And this time they basically like, you know what? No, we're going to muscle it through for better or worse, because we think our voters are going to be there anyway, like, enough of them. And yeah, I think before this, I might have been like, I don't know, guys. People still care about this stuff. We heard from a lot of voters who do. So I believe that those voters exist in real numbers. I just think there are enough people now who are like, all bets are off.

[JVL]

I mean, I'm sure that'll end well for the country very quickly. Chris Lacivita coming in hot, tweeting out a bad candidate and bad campaign have consequences. The Virginia governor's race is example number one. So I guess he's not going to say it's stolen. Got that going for him.

[Tim Miller]

Well, he would know. He received, he received about a million from the Albanian fascist party, the New York Times reported today. So he knows about a strong candidate versus a weak.

[Sarah Longwell]

He and Tony Fabrizio, these. There's no scumbags these guys won't work for.

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

All right, Mamdani. The most interesting thing to me about this race is that they're now over 2 million votes. Biggest turnout in New York City mayoral election since 1969. That's, that's pretty impressive because this wasn't like a super tight race. Like he just. I don't like the, the dude got people excited in a way that's real. Like that's really real. That's pretty interesting. I don't think it like, I don't think he plays anywhere outside of New York City, but it does show a template for like just super forward looking, not negative.

[Tim Miller]

Establishment though. Yeah, here's the thing, here's the thing about the zoron. Like I would be interested to see how he frames it tonight in his victory speech and how he frames himself because everybody wants to try to frame him for themselves. But the Democrats need to figure out how to engage voters who are not engaged in politics. Barack Obama did that and no Democrat has done it since him. If you look at the yeah, right. That's what I'm saying. If you look at the vote cast, this is the thing that people do not understand. I'm just going to repeat it till I'm blue in the face. If we had mandatory voting in this country, Trump would have won by a lot more like, a lot more like not like, looks like out of the people who didn't vote, they were extremely Trumpy. So how can Democrats do better with those people and reach those people either via persuasion or by taking the ones that would have voted for Harris and getting them out. And Madani figured out how to do it in part by being deeply anti establishment. In part. I don't, I do not think that, you know, I sometimes like some of the Madani supporters got mad and they're like, why did everybody ask him about Israel all the time? It's like he brought it up all the time. He brought it like, he chose to bring it up a lot and it helped him a lot. I mean, obviously there's some blowback among Jewish voters in certain parts of the state as well. Cut both ways. But there was a big group of people who were not engaged in the last election who care about the plight of Palestinians who he excited. So that's one element. Optimism is one. Social media is one. Like there are a lot of different elements and I think that some Democrats will be able to take from some and some from others, but it cannot be a status. The one thing that is definitely true is if you're going to engage those people, you cannot be a status quo politician and you just can't blow.

[JVL]

Just.

[Tim Miller]

There's no sense not just acknowledging the reality of the fact that he engaged a lot of people with that combination of tactics.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Can I just say, also on Mamdani, the thing that he did is he focused on affordability. I mean, he was like, the rent is too damn high guy. But like, for serious. And he really did focus on the idea that the city is too expensive.

[Tim Miller]

The rent is too damn high. Guy was great. He was serious. I was like, I've been saying for years, more people should be copying him. Yeah, that dude was a visionary.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that, that guy, that guy knows, knows what people were feeling. And this is the thing he did. I think sometimes when people say social media, it's easy to be like, okay, well he made tiktoks or whatever. That's not what he did. I mean, that is what he did. But he also, he went around the city and talked to people and filmed himself talking to people. And people see Themselves reflected back in the people that he was listening to. And the fact people feeling heard right now in this moment, I sound a little bit like a lib when I But like people did want to feel heard. They wanted somebody to that, that showed.

[Tim Miller]

Up and so like big space for this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, there's and, and this is somebody in the chat said something like the Bulwark talking heads, which I guess they mean us needs to understand that the DSA is the future of the anti Trump coalition.

[JVL]

Maybe.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think, I don't think that's, I don't think that's the takeaway from tonight. I think the takeaway is that if you run Democrats that fit the state well. Okay. Zora Mundani doesn't play well in the rest of the country. I don't think it's the future of the Democratic Party. Rich Large. If Zora Mandani had run in Virginia, he would have gotten against winsome Earl Sears. Actually, it might have been one.

[Tim Miller]

I think he might have been tight. Actually, I think he would have won.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, but like you want a 13 point blowout.

[Tim Miller]

Point taken.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, but the point, the point stands. And I think, I think actually the way that people should think about this and Democrats, I want people to think about a world in which maybe you put aside the idea that the thing we have to wrestle with is a constant. Dems need to be more moderate or Dems need to be more progressive. Maybe just let that drop that rope for a second and think Democrats need to nominate people that work in those states. In Virginia and in New Jersey, it was going to be people who were kind of normie Dems. I mean, you want to do some pundit accountability. I think we gave them a little bit of a hard time. As much as I like both of them for running kind of vanilla ish campaigns, just things that weren't that exciting. I cop to that. Yeah, right. No, no, you did. And I'm going to cop to it too. The fact is that was clearly right for those states. You said, Tim, you aren't going to cop to that.

[Tim Miller]

I'm not going to go to it because I think my take of the time was this is probably right for winning the states. But exactly what you said usually would have said it. I was like, I like this about my emotional needs. My emot needs is I need a normie down that has some ribs.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

And so but yeah, no, that was.

[Sarah Longwell]

But think about it more in this is what it could look like to fashion a coalition that is a big tent that includes all these different types of Democrats that run in places where they can win and that I actually think, you know, the same, it's less, it's less progressive and moderate and more like either aggressive or listening, talking to people about the issues that like I just listened to Abigail Spanberger's acceptance speech. She was all over the energy prices stuff and that, that just came up all across the focus groups. It's, they're building these big data centers, it's sending everybody's electricity bills through. And she was like, and they need, those are big job creators in the states. In fact, they're basically propping up our economy right now. But, but people are going to be.

[JVL]

Thrilled when the AI bubble bursts, their electric bills go down and their 401ks are cut in half.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's true, but she, but basically she's saying we're going to make them pay for more of the electricity in a state. Like they're not going to get drive up every. And that's a, that's a winner in these states. So I do feel like people should start shifting and widening the aperture of the conversation to how do you find the right people for all these places?

[Tim Miller]

Can I actually change the conversation from that to our, really our wheelhouse, which is Trump deranged and Trump attacks. Because I kind of want to make a broader point. I'm sorry, jv, can I make my point or do you want to go ahead.

[JVL]

I was going to say that I would like to move away from talking about good things happening for America and to talking about bad things happening to bad people.

[Tim Miller]

Oh yeah, no, I'm not ready for that yet. I'm not ready for that yet. I just think that the, like there's just, there's going to be a desire by people who are really, you know, have a, have a dog in the fight of whether the Democrats become the DSA in the future or become the, the party of deep state spooks who are center left moderates like Abigail Spamberger to like try to fashion the results one way or the other. And like, the reality is what this is, what we've actually learned tonight is that again, the Democratic coalition is different now and they do well in all your elections. On top of that, we learned in New York that Zorn was able to engage some new folks, which that's already stated and acknowledged. But what we really learned is that like the Donald Trump is in, is in doo doo. And I think that he's coming up on a crisis about whether he is a Lame duck or not, the holidays.

[JVL]

Are just weeks away and it's time to get cracking on all those gifts we need to get for the people in our lives. But stocking up on all those gifts doesn't mean that you have to forget to treat yourself, which is my favorite thing to do. Whether you're long overdue or always make it a point to treat yourself too, you can make your gift to self extraordinary this year with bowl and Branch sheets. Boland Branch's best sale of the year is happening right now with 25% off site wide. Their signature sheets are made with the perfect balance of softness and breathability for your best sleep. They get softer with every wash and are made with the highest quality 100% organic cotton, long staple cotton. This is the thing I keep preaching about with Bolan Branch. It's the best At Bolen Branch Bedding, all of their stuff, from blankets to throws to pillows and duvets, are made with exceptional quality and durability. And it's all on sale right now and it comes with a 30 night guarantee, so you can shop worry free. Trust me when I tell you that these sheets have done so much for the way I sleep. You can feel the quality immediately. And they get softer with every wash. It puts all my old bedding to shame. And my old bedding was really nice because I am, believe it or not, super picky about this stuff. Bow and Branch, absolutely sensational stuff. So what are you waiting for? Give yourself and your loved ones the most extraordinary feeling. Sleep with 25% off site wide plus free shipping and extended returns during bowl and Branch's best sale of the year. Shop now atbowl and branch.comnextlevel with code next level. That's bull and Branch. B O L L a n d branch.com nextlevel code next level for 25% off exclusions apply. Let me prompt you here.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, great. I'd love to be prompted. I love being prompted.

[JVL]

My friend Eric Erickson just tweeted out one hour ago, lame duck status is going to come even faster now. Trump cannot turn out the vote unless he is on the ballot and that is never happening again. I'm Ron Burgundy.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, see, that was a bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's not where we wanted to go.

[JVL]

I thought you were. You wanted to talk about the lame duckness.

[Tim Miller]

I was talking about the lame duck Nicks. In the context of the fact that that Trump's focus on his fancy ballroom and his imaginary peace prize and bombing boats in the Caribbean and the masked guys deporting people he isn't focused on the shit. And I guess the immigration thing is somewhat backfiring. If you look at the Hispanic numbers that we're seeing, at least indications early in these results. But the economic situation is not good unless you are heavily invested in the market and that's where most of your income is coming from. And then you've had a fine 10 months. But like other than. Or if you're an AI VC bro or if you're in the private prison industries or if you're in crypto, those guys that crude is all, is all crushing. Regular people are not. And prices have not gotten cheaper, they've gotten more expensive. The economy is rickety. You know, jobless rates is up, not a ton, but it's up. And people are feeling insecure about their economic status and they thought that the magic fake businessman was going to fix it and he hasn't and like that. And the reality is this is why the joke about Zorong could have run in Virginia. Like the reality is that the Democrats could have run a tomato can who's a moderate or tomato can that's a socialist in these states tonight. And they would have won not by as much. You know, might have changed a little.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think they kind of run.

[Tim Miller]

A tomato in New Jersey a socialist tomato can. I'm pretty sure they could have based on the balls. But whatever. Point being they could have run some pretty lefty type people or some pretty whatever. And, and I think that the real results of tonight, the lesson is that like Donald Trump is weak and he is not riding on a massive mandate of support and there's was not like some permanent shift to him and people have not accepted the great MAGA future. So there you go, there's my positivity.

[Sarah Longwell]

And that is good positivity because here's the thing, here's what happened tonight, is that it put a stop to the momentum that Trump was trying to keep going with the idea that he won a massive mandate. Everybody thought he had the best numbers. This is that tide is going to turn. He cannot keep this going. Now. This is a very important. People are going to try to say, like I tell you what, you're going to hear from the Fox News, the right wing pundits, what they're going to say, this doesn't matter that much. Whatever. No, this matters a great deal. This is the beginning of a turning point. And I think when you look at these numbers and you put them in the context of 2026, if you're able to Extrapolate them out. And if the economy doesn't get better in the next year, I don't know if you saw this, but Trump came out recently and apparently someone has whispered to him, hey, the economy is actually not doing that great. And so he said, oh, in January, I'm really going to focus on it in January this coming, he'll start focusing on it. So I can't wait for that, see what he's got up his sleeve. But this, the thing that Eric said, actually Eric Erickson, son of Eric, that I would like to wrestle with is not the JBL Derangement 2028 stuff, but this idea of this idea.

[JVL]

And why do you guys, why do you guys assume that's what I meant? What I meant was that we are accelerating into a schism of over Trump as the future of the party. And I think that the Erickson tweet plus Marjorie Taylor Greene on the View today, plus the the Tucker Carlson heritage Nick Fuentes feud looks like a big crack up.

[Sarah Longwell]

It does look like a big.

[JVL]

That's what I was trying to say.

[Tim Miller]

I was not really the iron, the iron Burgundy thing made me think that.

[JVL]

You were just to trying, trying to make it funny.

[Tim Miller]

Democracy is over.

[JVL]

Trying to make it funny.

[Tim Miller]

If he has, if him being a lame duck is bad actually, because then he will seize.

[Sarah Longwell]

But let's take that point. Let's take the point, not exactly that he's definitely going to run in 2028, but what happens when Trump's not on the ballot for Republicans? What happens? I mean the thing that I think Tim, J.D.

[JVL]

Vance is a ball of charisma.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I know that, that Trump has floated the JD Vance and Marco Rubio ticket. The Republicans have a genuine problem of what happens when Trump is not on the ticket. This has happened in every off year election for Republicans. The massive amount of drop off that occurs from people who are low propensity voters who vote just for Trump. The only Trump voters I remember being when I was at the Dealbook Summit with Kevin McCarthy and he was bragging about how Trump was this turnout machine and everything else. And I was like, Kevin, they hate you. And Donald Trump taught them to hate the Republican Party. And when Trump's not there anymore, a whole bunch of people who are just red pilled for Trump, they're not there anymore. And so this is where I think part of the reason you do get the 2028 talk from Republicans is they do not have a plan B. And nights like this freak them out about the future of what they can do without Trump.

[JVL]

Don't disagree with any of that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, great.

[JVL]

Do you think it makes them eager to try to move him out though, so they can start figuring out their post Trump plan?

[Sarah Longwell]

I hope not. So. So something that I've, I've sort of started to think, because that is the thing.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

The unsaid thing is that nobody in Republican world can make moves on running for president until Trump says that he won't run for president.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is a real problem for them. This is a. I agree with you that this is a genuine problem because the longer they have to entertain Trump as the leader of the party, that is time that's being chewed up of them not being able to figure out what an alternative looks like. Not just an alternative to like Trump the man, but also like, oh, no, for a decade we've only been about a person. We've lost the muscle memory around policy making in an affirmative way. We don't know what we stand for. Do we stand for tariffs still without Trump? What's our foreign policy without Trump? Right. The Congress no longer does anything on the Republican side. So what do you do when Trump's not there? And you know what I love about tonight? It's time for us to. We don't have to look back now. We don't have to just keep looking back. We can start looking forward.

[JVL]

We're not going back.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're not going back. Don't give Tim ptsd. But I, I just. This is. Here's the thing. The margins were really going to matter tonight. Just the margins and the, the size of them. Like we, we knew Abigail was going to win in Virginia. There was no.

[JVL]

Cheryl's now up by 14.

[Sarah Longwell]

I still think they don't.

[JVL]

The same 75 of the votes in and she's up by 14.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is that, sorry, is that where they are right now? Hold on, I gotta pull this up because I think what's happening is they counted the mail first. Right. Or it's all. Is it, is it all mail in New Jersey? No, no. They're gonna.

[JVL]

So I've been told.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, sure. You don't know.

[JVL]

Not all male.

[Sarah Longwell]

When they, when it comes in. So when the same. I just, I think the same day numbers are going to come in last and I assume that'll tighten it. But if they've got 75% in right now.

[JVL]

Did it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can anybody see. Sorry to do this in real time, but can anybody see what the vote totals are? Because when I was tracking New Jersey, it looked like turnout was lower there. Like it wasn't they weren't seeing the kind of turnout that they were seeing.

[JVL]

I'll tell you what is right. She's at 1.4 million already with 75% of the vote counted. And I'm just looking back, Murphy got 1.3 million in 2021 and 1.2 million in 2020.

[Sarah Longwell]

What did Harris get?

[JVL]

Harris got 2.2 million. So she's not going to get there, but she's going to get more votes than any, any gubernatorial candidate in a long time.

[Sarah Longwell]

I am going to have to take these guys to Vegas.

[JVL]

Yeah, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Vegas. Vegas, baby. Hit that craps table.

[JVL]

But you know what, that, I mean that trip pays for itself.

[Sarah Longwell]

It does. That's true.

[JVL]

Right? I mean, you make it all back when you're there.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I want to talk about, I want to come back to the Republican crackup sub jv. Unless you want to do it first. I do want to talk a little about midterms and redistricting and what the impact is on that. So should we do that first or do you want to do Tucker versus Ben Shapiro?

[JVL]

Back to that. Why don't we talk about that? Because we'll have a little Prop 50 talk towards the end. Because that's the funny thing. In all I want to talk about redistricting in Virginia is Prop 50. Yeah, well that becomes more likely if Prop 50 passes.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's going to pass.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. It was just coin too.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

It's called.

[JVL]

I assume so.

[Sarah Longwell]

But like no, it's going to. And I gotta say, Abigail Spamger in her, in her acceptance speech, which was really excellent, she talks about, she was very like, I'm gonna be the governor for all people. I represent you too. It was very gracious and I, I liked it very much. You know, it's, it speaks to my heart. But then I was like, Abigail Spanberger is going to redistrict the out of Virginia. Like that's coming.

[JVL]

She's talking sit upon a throne made of the skulls of her enemies.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. And, and you know what?

[JVL]

In a very nice, respectful and inclusive way.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know but I just saw that, that Kansas didn't make it to like they weren't able to get there on doing the Republican redistricting that they wanted to do in that state. And so when all of this washes out, I'm not sure Republicans are going to feel great about the fact that they decided to do this mid cycle redistricting. I like, I, I, I'm not sure. I'm not sure. At the end it doesn't kind of net out closer to a wash. Well.

[JVL]

Especially if maybe there's a wave. And some of those, some of those tester Texas districts that they thought would be basically safe don't wind up safe. Right. Like, you know, Texas goes to carve itself out an additional five, but instead they actually only net out three.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Because they lose some of the marginal ones. Right. I mean, that a boy can dream. All right, so can we talk about the Republican civil war that'll start, I don't know, hopefully tomorrow.

[Tim Miller]

Sure. And I think that the, we haven't.

[JVL]

Been together since the Tucker Nick Fuentes thing happened.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I was, I was doing a, I was just treating myself this afternoon to, you know, a lot of the video, the Ben Shapiro monologue, which was very long. That was not a treat. Listening to Ben Shapiro at 2.0 speed is a real adventure. That's not something I'd recommend doing on Soul out of Office Gummies because it's hard to, it's hard to follow. But I did my best and, and I was watching the response to it from Candace, from others and man, they, it's interesting. And I also watched MTG on the View today and there is a real like fundamental schism that is happening and that is, that is an actual threat. And I don't, I'm not doing the like, oh, the end is near for Trump thing. But you know, I think that there was a lot of hope that, you know, being able to peel off, continue to peel off the college educated Wall Street Journal and how much time we spent talking about these people, like the college educated Republicans, middle to high income, you know, socially moderate types, getting to peel them out of the coalition. And that happened. A bunch of those people voted for Mikey, Sheryl and Abigail Spamberger today. And it just wasn't enough to beat Donald Trump in 2024. The real threat to that coalition has always been a crack up within the populist side. That's always been the actual threat because that's where the numbers are. There are only so many people that were going to leave from the moderate side. The bulk of the coalition is white working class people. So where are the potential fracture points there? Sarah is really hopeful that Epstein is one of them. I'm less hopeful. But potentially that's certainly something. They've all been talking about economics, like working class economics, you know, health care benefits. Maybe we don't know whether that's something, but potentially that's something. Right. Like where lot of these voters aren't going to be thrilled, you know, about getting hung out to dry while, you know, the AIVC guys, you know, get welcomed to the gilded ballroom and they're losing their health care and their SNAP benefits. Potentially that could be an area of concern. Foreign policy, Israel. Obviously there's an anti Semitism subplot to this, but that is that there are definitely some anti Semites. Yeah, I know there are. And so you basically see all three of those coming together via Marjorie Tucker, Candace Fuentes, to varying degrees. Right. And. And it's a real threat. And Donald Trump for the first time finds himself kind of on their side of like the responsible. Like when Ben Shapiro is coming to your defense and the National Review guys are coming to your defense, that, to me signals that you might be on the losing side of the battle. Because historically, all the crackups, it was like the traditional conservatives on one side and Trump was on the side with Tucker and Marjorie and Candace and the people that have all the energy. And now Trump has gotten moved to the losing side. I mean, at least historically. I don't know if that'll be true in the future. And that, to me is intriguing.

[JVL]

We're gonna unpack this some more, but first we have to. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, guys. We are contractually obligated to do a single ad.

[Sarah Longwell]

I got you. I got you guys.

[JVL]

Thank you.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[JVL]

Sarah, do you think Zebiotics could ship an entire pallet's worth of their stuff? Just have it waiting at the hotel in Vegas for when you get out.

[Sarah Longwell]

There with your team. I think we're gonna need it. I think we're gonna need it. Okay. Are we still unpacking the crazy?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Can I just give you one fun precinct, though, just for kicks, just for us, so we can all have a good laugh. This is in Edison, New Jersey. It's a highly South Asian immigrant precinct. That's true. Donald Trump got 342 two votes there. Jack Schettarelli got 22. Trump won by 30, Cheryl won by 76. So the immigrant communities, the highly immigrant communities maybe did an oopsie in 2024, but are coming back around. Feels like welcome them into this tent.

[JVL]

Speaking of people who always thought that the alligator would never eat them. Thank you, Mark Levin. Oh, wait now. Very, very well. No, it's just all part of the, the manga thing. So, like, like Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin is up there ranting about how, you know, oh, Tucker's not maga, these people aren't maga. And like, this is a, this is a thing. John Gans over. One of my buddies on Substack has a great, great piece about this today. And, you know, like, these guys have been tolerated by maga. But I don't know, it seems like the future is griper to me. Am I wrong?

[Sarah Longwell]

I think this is like, and when the inmates take over the asylum situation. And here's, here's the point I want to make about Ben Shapiro because Ben Shapiro did a very viral, very long, very good rant about who should not be welcome in the Republican coalition. The only problem is, and normally, you know, I try, I try when people do the right thing to say, that's good, they're doing the right thing. This is, we want people to move in this direction. That's good.

[JVL]

But I feed the good wolf.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sarah cannot help Feed it. I cannot help but point out that one of the biggest, most grotesque anti Semites is Candace Owens, who that guy Ben Shapiro hired helped make famous. And it's an example Fox News and everybody else who has, let's call it platformed, welcomed, given, helped, helped build followings for all of these crazy people, only to find out that now Laura Loomer is the only person with access to the Pentagon. Okay? And so like, the fact is the, the normie ish guys who made peace with Trump to keep their audiences on side, which is exactly what they did, right? All the National Review types, everybody, all of them suddenly saying, oh my goodness, could there, is there gambling going on in this establishment? Are there anti Semites among us? I can't believe it. This is the kind of thing that we were. One of the things I re shared on Twitter because when this whole thing popped off, I just, I, I will never forget forget the day that Scott Jennings and I were on the panel on cnn and this jackass is going, anti Semitism is only a problem on the left. Like, he was hammering this. It's a left wing problem. It only exists on the left. And this was when the campus protests were happening. And I said, donald Trump just had Kanye west and Nick Fuentes to Mar A Lago. And he. And it's funny because in the clip I like hit him on it and make him say like, yes, that was wrong. But then he was like, what's one stupid dinner? The idea that it didn't matter to him that the President of the United States, because Donald Trump was sanctioning these people by having them at Mar A Lago. Why do you think people thought they were an acceptable part of the coalition? And what makes me crazy about the anti antis now suddenly saying, oh my gosh, there are anti Semites. These people will not say Trump's name. It's just like when Pam Bondi did the whole hate speech thing and they all came down on her like a ton of bricks. How can she be so stupid? And at the same time, Donald Trump is standing there with reporters being like, they say hate speech against me, so I'm going to have them banned. And everybody's like, donald Trump, who I, Mike Johnson. I didn't hear what he said. What could he have possibly have said? Say his name. People admit that the guy you signed up with, Ben Shapiro, the, the fundraiser that you held for him. Say his name. Say that he did this and that you helped him. Every single one of you rolled out the red carpet for the people who are now taking over the party. We told you it was happening. You told us we had Trump derangement syndrome, but we were right. And now they're going to take your jobs.

[JVL]

What's weird about this, though, is that like, mostly like, like Ben, like Mark Levin, like a lot of National Review, these people were all late on Trump, like they were anti Trump to begin with, while the Fuentes is. And the, the anti Semites, Those guys were with Trump first.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

Like the, the Fuentes part of the world, the gripers, they were early on Trump, while all of these people who are now trying to, to kick them out of the party, we're all anti.

[Tim Miller]

Trump, which is part of the reason why they're from the weaker position. And this is the thing that, the Ben Shapiro thing, which is like, okay, it is, it's just worth saying objectively, it's good that he's doing it.

[JVL]

Yeah, great.

[Tim Miller]

Because there's a lot of power on the, on the other side of the far right. And it's like, better to fight those, you know, the racist Nazis than to join them, I guess. But it is like, not only was Ben and Ben and all them never Trump, originally, Ben wrote, In 2015, Ben got kicked out of Breitbart. The whole reason the Daily Wire exists is because Ben was writing for Breitbart that Donald Trump was enabling the rise of the alt right and these anti Semitic online voices, and they were rallying to Trump and that was bad. The conservative movement should not abide this. And he got ran out of Breitbart on a rail because they were like, you're a heretic. And they said a lot nastier things about him. And then he went out on his own on the Daily Wire and then he hired Candace Owens and did a fundraiser for Donald Trump. So it's like, you built this, you made this, you made your bed. You saw it. It's not as if this was surprising to you and some of us, again, we've done our mea culpas, but it's just worth saying some of us are like, I kind of, I assume these guys were like a crazy little, you know, 20%, 10% of the party. I didn't realize how strong it was. Once I saw it, I said, no, I'm out of this party. And I was going for good. Like Ben Shapiro is. Like, I saw clearly that Donald Trump was, was cultivating a rise in alt right, racist far right nationalists within the party. I'm going to speak out against it. And then after that being like, well, he won, so oopsie daisies, maybe I'll just be a part of it now. And then eight years later, he wants to be like, who brought the racist to the party? You know? And it's just like, come on, man. Like, come on, man.

[Sarah Longwell]

You did 100%. Number two. The thing about so many of these people, when you say they came late to Trump, what I cannot get over is that when they came to Trump, including Ben Shapiro, it was post trying to overturn an election. You think you don't. You think if you lay down with the dogs who do election denialism, who lie to these people, who put up all these candidates in 2022, where the only litmus test was to say that you two believed the election was stolen. You don't think you're going to get fleas from that guy. You don't think the people he's drawing into the party are the kind of people who hate you, Ben Shapiro. Because that's what happened. That's what happened. You changed your mind after you saw this guy overturn an election. And then you decided, now is when I'm going to get on board. And you got there just in time for people to decide that Trump isn't taking it far enough and that you represent the establishment and that they're coming for you.

[JVL]

All right, I want to ask some. Some analysis.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry ranting not working for you?

[JVL]

No, no, I love it, but believe me, I love it so hard.

[Tim Miller]

Analysis. Analysis. Ben Shapiro, douche forward looking. You made this your bed.

[JVL]

How do you think this ends? Like, is Megyn Kelly able to maintain the. Like, I'm just not gonna talk about it stance? Is Mark Levin gonna be able to maintain the. This isn't real maga. Real MAGA is. Is pro Israel maga. Like, what?

[Tim Miller]

I don't want to pretend to know what 2028 holds, but here are the things I think we know the next six months that are new. Yeah. Here are things we know now that are new. The dogs are a little bit more loose. You know, I think that there was a period of time Trump came in, he won. He won all the states. They were. People were surprised by the scope of his victory. Most people, even if they just going to win, you know, he put in all these crazies in the cabinet. They're like, whoa, this is like the ID of the party. Like, you can't speak out against him right now. I think, like, increasingly, you know, tonight's results tied with this recent, you know, Tucker versus Shapiro crack up and Marjorie Taylor Greene being out there, I think there's going to be some more toe dipping in the water of where can we get some distance from him? How can we start to look around corners? You know, it's not going to be, you know, they're not going to be, you know, writing op EDS for the bulwark anytime soon. You know, I don't think, I think that everybody can just, yeah, margin. Everybody can keep their expectations in check, but I just think that this marks the point where, where people start to test the waters a little bit about where can I get some distance from this? And particularly on the populist. Right. That, that kind of crowd. I think that's one thing. And the other thing that I just thought of earlier today is, I mean, I think that the notion that, like, you're in clean handoff territory from Trump to JD Is pretty. Feels very sketchy right now. And I think that that is something that would be clean handoff. Trump to Trump.

[JVL]

Trump to John Jr. It has to be dynastic.

[Tim Miller]

Don Jr. Is too stupid, unfortunately for. Fortunately for all of us.

[JVL]

Too stupid to win the nomination.

[Tim Miller]

Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Actually, yes. Actually, yes. People say, like, oh, Donald Trump is so stupid, I have to tell you, like, if, if the, if the, like, if the intelligence here, we'll do it within the screen. If JD Is the smartest of them, you know, and like, Donald Trump is down here. Okay. And then where would you put Marjorie? Like a little above Donald, you know.

[JVL]

Oh, I wouldn't go that far now.

[Tim Miller]

A little below. Okay. Marjorie's down here below Donald. Don Trump Jr. Is like below the earth. Donald Trump Jr. Can barely write a sentence. Okay. He just, he doesn't have it. He doesn't have it. J.D. in there. Yeah.

[JVL]

Tell me, where do you think this goes?

[Sarah Longwell]

So it's funny you mentioned Megyn Kelly, because I would put her in the bucket of people that could run in 2028. I do think on the right, part of this crack up and part of the, the dominance of their influence culture has strong benefits and really benefited Trump. But it also means that they're going to start, I think, pulling more candidates because Republicans do not like regular politicians. Their voters do not like regular politicians. And so it would not surprise me at all to see people like Megyn Kelly running. It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson running maybe even together. I think that you are going to wind up with a situation where J.D. vance and Marco Rubio end up being like the median normie Republican ticket. Relative to the other people who come into the field. And that's going to be, that's, there's sort of the, the bad news of that, that J.D. vance and Marco Rubio might be made to look much more civilized and normal by comparison and might make them look more moderate. The other option though is that actually it really does tear the party apart.

[Tim Miller]

We have, I think an expert on the matter has weighed in on Truth Social.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

The President of the United States, Trump speaking of himself in the third person and all caps. Trump wasn't on the ballot, comma and shutdown, comma, were the two reasons that Republicans lost elections tonight, according to unnamed pollsters. That's what Donald Trump had to say. The President of the United States.

[JVL]

Well, the way to ratify that put Trump back on the ballot.

[Tim Miller]

It's one way to think about it. But the shutdown part is interesting because, you know, it's hard to over analyze.

[JVL]

He's gonna kill the filibuster.

[Tim Miller]

Kind of like two lightning bugs going back and forth inside a jar that is Donald Trump's brain. And what he, what, what he means by and shut down were the two reasons. But one way to interpret that as an acknowledgement that like the shutdown isn't helping them. And to me, if I'm Donald Trump, we'll see. Here's my big hot take prediction. I don't like being in the prediction business, but here's my hot take prediction. He starts to turn the screws on on this filibuster. Yeah.

[JVL]

Oh, no. I think so. He's got a meeting tomorrow. He's got a breakfast tomorrow. I think the, the answer is that he kills the filibuster. And you know what? I'm okay with that because it means we finally get DC to be a state. Can we.

[Tim Miller]

I bet. Sarah, Sarah, Sarah has an exciting news. Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Saw me say this and I imagined him throwing furniture around the room at the idea that after years of him trying to talk me into nuking the filibuster, what it took was one morning shots Andrew and by Andrew Egger. And I'm suddenly like, you know, that's making, he's making a great point there, young Egger.

[JVL]

Remember the gif, the gift with the, the guy and the girls and the one dude like, whoa. Like that's JVL trying to take. Talk Sarah into undoing the filibuster. Egger saying maybe we should kill the filibuster.

[Tim Miller]

And Sarah going, so I don't know.

[Sarah Longwell]

If people read his morning shots. He made an incredibly Interesting point that.

[JVL]

You keep real, real tight tabs on morning shots, don't you? Never miss an addition.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, here's the thing. You got to balance the conservative instincts that I have, which. The thing about the filibuster, right, was that it is supposed to engender compromise. And I think we can all see that that is no longer working. But the point that he made that I hadn't quite thought of was that the filibuster, by rendering Congress essentially completely dysfunctional, has allowed the executive to consolidate so much power. And so my competing conservative instinct, which is very against executive power and really believes in checks and balances, is persuaded by the idea that for Congress to function and take back power from the executive branch, it can no longer operate this way. I will also say one thing that has shifted for me just generally is like, the idea that, that they are going to, that they're going to compromise, right? That they, like, it's not like that anymore. Like, it's, we're. It has, it has gone well pasted. And also, people sort of need, like, we don't want Democrats to protect Republicans from themselves, right? Like, you sort of have to be like, okay, you wanted these policies, like, get these policies. You voted for them.

[JVL]

Can't wait for Andrew Egger to write the case for expanding the Supreme Court. And Sarah to be like, wow, you know what? You know, I feel like she's turned me around. Yeah, I guess.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think he's going to get me on that. I was always, always a little wishy on filibuster.

[JVL]

That is, that is not true.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was open. I was.

[JVL]

Had so many fights, but I was.

[Sarah Longwell]

Open to reforming it as opposed to nuking it.

[JVL]

I want to talk about Sandwich man, because that's the happiest thing we have going for us. But first, very quickly, my girl, Marjorie Taylor. Marjorie Taylor Greene on the View today, just tearing into Mike Johnson and John Th. And all of the worst Republican men in Congress. I'm sorry, are you guys on the bandwagon with me yet?

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm never doing this bit with you. Never.

[Tim Miller]

I'm. I can't wait for her to come on the show. I've been trying to get her on the show. I hope to talk to her, and I don't. I don't, I don't. That's what I want to play your little, your two little game. I don't need to be part of a morality play, Partridge. Taylor Green and I are not ever going to be pals. She is making coherent Arguments against Donald Trump from a place of vulnerability. And what she is saying is true, whether she's saying it because of some desire for attention or for. Because, you know, some psychosis. She's out of the psychotic because she's gonna try to run in 2028. Okay. I don't know. This is going on. The views, not the path to do that. Or if that. Or if she thinks it is. I don't. What. I don't care what her motivations are, frankly. Like, her points are apt. And I think it's noteworthy that every time someone frees themselves from the shackles of the Trump cult and they're able to speak freely about what is happening in the real world, they speak about the truth. And I appreciate that, Marjorie Taylor Greene is doing that now.

[JVL]

All right, sandwich man, guys, he crushed that cop.

[Tim Miller]

That cop reeked like onions.

[JVL]

I don't know if you guys know we are heading to a third day of this trial for a misdemeanor. We have a jury trial for a misdemeanor.

[Tim Miller]

I was thinking back to my various minor impossessions of alcohol and the time I didn't. I didn't do that. You know, the traffic court train, you know, and I didn't show up to the class I needed to take for my various speeding tickets. Back when I was a wayward youth, I had several misdemeanors. I don't recall ever having a jury trial. That seems unusual.

[JVL]

I. I would like to read you guys some reporting from inside the courthouse by Molly Roberts.

[Tim Miller]

Are you ready, please?

[JVL]

Yeah, yeah, I'm just reading Molly here. This is her voice, not mine. The officer, sandwich guy is charged with assaulting, testifies that he could feel the impact of the sandwich through his ballistic vest. And it exploded all over my uniform. He says he could, quote, smell the onions and the mustard. Following this, the defense brought the video up and pointed out that the sandwich was still covered in paper, had no mustard emerging from it, no way to tell what condiments were on it, because it was completely wrapped in paper. In fact, that sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it? The defense, the government's next witness, Metro Transit Police Department Detective Dina Henry, describes the sandwich throw as like a baseball pitch and hand to God. The defense attorney referred to the police officer as a seasoned cop. These are all real things happening in a court of law in Donald Trump's America. We are spending three days trying to hang a misdemeanor. Correct. Misdemeanor conviction on a guy who threw a sandwich. That an Alpha male warrior war fighter with probably five punisher tattoos. Felt all the way through his ballistic vest like the princess on the mattress with the pee in it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is part of the sandwich guy's defense that the cop looked hungry?

[JVL]

I mean, I. I haven't been in the.

[Sarah Longwell]

He looked hungry. I was trying to give him a sandwich.

[Tim Miller]

We need to update. I feel like the ballistic vests. I'm pretty concerned. If he could feel a thundering shake from the subway sub. I mean, what would happen if it was a paintball? What would happen if it was. I wonder if it happened if it was more of a hard crust like a baguette French bread.

[JVL]

I mean, a. A full bag through it like a Sabbath round.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guys. Sarah, should we do it? Should we. Should we re. Let's. Let's run through.

[Tim Miller]

Let's.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know for this.

[Tim Miller]

Give me.

[JVL]

Give me 30 seconds on sandwich guy before we go back to do election recap.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay.

[Tim Miller]

What more do you got?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't.

[JVL]

Let me ask you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't have 30 seconds on the sandwich guys. Good. I'm glad. I'm glad. It looks like he won't be convicted. Solidarity with sandwich guy. Actually don't throw things at cops, but also don't be babies. Guys, I would like to come back because I'm. I'm in a good mood about the election and I would like to talk about that. And I want to hit a couple.

[JVL]

Are you. Are you pricelining flights right now because Spamberger is up to 56.9% of the vote.

[Sarah Longwell]

No. But tell me what Cheryl's at. Like, I think. No.

[Tim Miller]

Cheryl is up by 13 points with 86 of the votes in. Baby, you might as well just get the. Get the travel agent anymore.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, that is amazing. Here's some other races, though, that we haven't talked about that I just like to throw in there. Because the Democrats are winning absolutely everywhere, in absolutely every context, including there was a big Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania where they needed to have. There were three Democrats who were up to be either. Forget the term, but it was like either kept. Retained, I believe is what they call it. They were all retained. And I. This may sound like a small thing to people, but the Supreme Court in Pennsylvania in the middle of a contested election is actually going to matter quite a bit. And so that was after a big race. It's interesting that Governor Shapiro was all over this. You know who wasn't anywhere to be heard from in Pennsylvania? John Fetterman was not there. There was also a couple of, like.

[JVL]

Low level he was busy defending Trump's ballroom.

[Sarah Longwell]

He was. Yeah. That's great.

[Tim Miller]

On the Lara Trump Show.

[Sarah Longwell]

Heck.

[Tim Miller]

Over on Rumble. Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Great, great stuff from that future of.

[JVL]

The Democratic Party, John Fetterman.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I would love to go replay some JVL from when Fetterman was running 10% of the time.

[JVL]

I'm right. 100 of the time.

[Sarah Longwell]

Also in Georgia, there were some, some down ballot seats. I can't remember for exactly what, but no Democrat has ever won them. There were two Democrats that won in Georgia, which I think, even though it's just a little thing, is probably going to make John also happy to see.

[Tim Miller]

That was the public service commissioner, very important role. We appreciate your support. We do.

[Sarah Longwell]

But they, sir, they have never won. They have never won. And obviously, Momdani, I don't know if we have new numbers on Mumdani. If he is, he's over 50.

[Tim Miller]

He's hovering right at 50.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do we think that's an underperformance from him?

[Tim Miller]

Well, it's a slightly underperformance of the polls, but it's, he is, he's the first Democratic or his first mayor of any kind to get a million votes in New York since John Lindsay, who ran on the unbelievable slogan. Can I pull this from my memory? He is. I, I can't. I'm gonna pull it up, though, because I love, I loved it so much. Go ahead, you guys.

[Sarah Longwell]

You go find that. But I just, I, I think, I think I would like to see from you two a little more like just downright glowing enthusiasm for what we're, Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I can't do that. But he is fresh and everyone else is tired. Was was the John Lindsay slogan. And amen to that because count me in the tired portion. Look, here's the thing. I, I, I want to talk about the, the redistricting stuff. I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy. Everybody's happy. I just, I can't fake it, okay? I am who I am. You're going to get the my honest views. Donald Trump is still the president for like three more years. And I have trauma. I have election night trauma. I have trauma from last year. Hearing the music on NBC gives me trauma. Going to the fucking needle page gives me trauma. Talking about it gives me trauma. And I might not ever recover. I don't know. I might not ever be able to have a happy election night again. And that's me, because I have Trump derangement syndrome. That said, it was objectively good and I think that the best news is probably just brought it to next year's midterms. Anything can happen in the next year, obviously. But the redistricting thing, assuming that Prop 50 passes by in a landslide, which I think it's going to the Virginia win. Virginia as of now, and this could change, is I think the Devils have picked up like 11 seats already. So she's gonna have the big majority. It's a trifecta. The delegates, the Senate, and the governor's rate. It's going to be the biggest one since, like, 1985 or 89, back when the Democrats included, like, Dixie Kratz still in the party. So, like, it's a massive. And so they will jam through a redistricting for sure, as you mentioned earlier, Sarah. So if you look at those maps, that's probably three seats more. Five in California, that's eight. It makes it a lot harder. I mean, the Republicans could probably still squeeze out a situation where they end up, you know, figuring out 12 or something 13. But that's. That. That makes their margin way thinner. And. And, you know, if you kind of project out the type of win that that Cheryl and Spamberger had of over a dozen, when it's all said and done shit, Spamberger is going to be at 14. Really, the. Like, that projects out to a pretty strong Democratic wave next year and a strong enough wave. And this is where I was going to go, you know, Trump. It's notable that Trump said we were making fun of his bleed earlier about how they lost because Trump wasn't on the ballot. But had these races been close, Trump was laying the groundwork to say cheated, stolen. And this is like the reality that we're in now in this country where, like, the Democrats don't have to just win, they have to win big. Because as long as, if they win big, then all the Republicans are like, well, there was some cheating. Grumble, grumble, grumble. Let's talk about the caravan tomorrow. But if the Democrats win narrowly, they try to stop the steal, right? And steal the election. And to me, the big concern about next year in the midterms and all the redistricting stuff is if the Democrats eke out a win, then we're staring down the barrel of 2021 insurrection all over again, right? Like where Republicans try not to seat the Democrats, where there's a lot of shenanigans. If between California and Virginia and now Maryland, Westmore, I should shout out Westmore stepped up today and said he's finally gonna get off his ass and redistrict Maryland that's another seat. If the Democrats can get themselves in a position between the redistricting and the wave where they end up winning by 15, 20 seats next year, then like, they can do all they want with the mail in ballot fraud or whatever and it won't matter. And to me, that will be something that will give me joy, genuine joy. And, and we're on a trajectory to that tonight with the results. And I think that's actually more important than any specific.

[Sarah Longwell]

And I think we should just talk like Democrats really needed this. I think the level of helplessness and hopelessness that's sort of been dragging on people since Trump won. Like Tim's talking about his trauma. Everybody felt that way. Right? There's a real sense of, can we get this back? Are we doomed? And I do want to push into something that I try to reassure people about. As mad as people get at the voters, like so many people. Yes. Jvl, I'm looking at you. That's a subtweet, hard subtweet of you. Okay. In a lot of these ways. Right. I, and I do think we are probably trapped in some cycles of change elections here because people are increasingly dissatisfied with the state of things. But I, I think that people should just remember that, that there's a lot of swing in these voters, that it does not mean that all the trajectory heads one way. And I think people should, should be excited about the midterms and should be focused on if you get these kinds of numbers, can you win in Ohio with Sherrod Brown? Like, does the Senate come back into play? And so some offense. I think people, everybody's been back on their heels and I'd like people to find a little bit of that offense mentality now that says there are things we can do about this. Like you can. And if you blow Trump out in 26, if you blow the Republicans out in 26, you get a bunch of things. Not only do you change, I think a real trajectory of the country going into 2028, but more importantly, you get oversight, the one thing that Donald Trump doesn't want in his last two years, because all this crypto scam money and all the pardons that Trump doesn't even know who he's pardoning. All this stuff, like start looking at that stuff. And that's what Dems are going to do when they come in. And I'm here for it.

[JVL]

Guys.

[Tim Miller]

I got this message here in the comments from Selenos. It says, we all have trauma, Tim. But however, none of us have the luxury of crawling back into bed and hiding under the covers. I don't know. Some of you guys might also.

[Sarah Longwell]

Tim is here.

[Tim Miller]

I gotta be. I got a fucking podcast tomorrow. But if you can. Cannot crawl under the covers, you should crawl. Enjoy the covers, baby. I. I could use that. I heard that election night music and I was like, where are the. Where are the covers? Where are my gummies? Where are my soul gummies? I need the. I need the elevated dose. The Longwell.

[Sarah Longwell]

Jbl, do you feel just a little bit like your whole. Like everything's terrible. It can never get better. We're doomed. Like is any part of you.

[JVL]

I started. I started the whole show by saying this is a really big deal.

[Tim Miller]

This is.

[JVL]

I wrote this newsletter today. I know you. I did read it time. But I was like, today's the day the resistance strikes back. I know. The last.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know.

[Tim Miller]

Last.

[JVL]

The last.

[Tim Miller]

Jbl, you are.

[JVL]

Smile.

[Tim Miller]

Jbl, smile.

[JVL]

Unlikely to know the result for sure tonight, but this is the one where America strikes back against Trumpism. That's how I ended my newsletter. So. Yes, of course, I know, but you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Write every day and sometimes you take all the positions and so, so let's just, let's. Let's admit that the preponderance.

[JVL]

You write every day without taking all the positions.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know, I know, I know. But here's the thing. The preponderance of your positions tend to careen into the like slough of despond over the state of things, which I understand.

[JVL]

Well, things are pretty bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

Of course they are. But. But, but, but, but they're not so bad.

[Tim Miller]

Jbl, do you have any.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not so bad that we can't do something about it?

[JVL]

No.

[Tim Miller]

Do you have a single drop of hard liquor in that house? That old house?

[JVL]

You know, I actually don't think we do.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah wants you taking a shot of Fireball right now. Can somebody in New York City bring. Jeff can go to my boat.

[JVL]

Sorority girl.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. She wants you to be as happy as a 20 year old sorority girl on Fireball after these women.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tim Miller]

Tonight. That's what Sarah wants. Abigail Spamberger. Mikey. Cheryl Zoran. We have a communist running New York now. Things are great. That's exactly what everybody wants.

[Sarah Longwell]

I will just say the only. The only silver lining.

[Tim Miller]

Okay? Don't ruin it, Sarah. Just keep it as an inside thought.

[JVL]

All right, guys, good show. Unbelievably long show. We're never doing this thing live again. But it was a good night and I'm glad we could all be together for it. I'll say this with a happy tone in my voice. Good luck, America.

[Tim Miller]

Happier. Try again.

[Sarah Longwell]

Every now and then I rinse it out and I need tummy rins tonight and I need it more. My kid wears a bed and the smell never leaves. I don't know what to do.

[Tim Miller]

I'm always in the dark. The sweat and dead.

[JVL]

Downy rinse fights stubborn odors in just one wash when impossible odors get stuck in.