The Next Level – Secret Podcast: JD Vance Can’t Control What He Unleashed

Podcast: The Next Level (Bulwark)
Date: November 7, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell (B), Jonathan V. Last / JBL (A)
Episode Focus: Dissecting the myth of a post-Trump Republican “migration,” the realities of Trump’s GOP hold, key election results, and inside data from focus groups.

Episode Overview

In this Bulwark “Secret Podcast” episode, Sarah Longwell and JBL analyze the ongoing delusions within parts of the GOP establishment regarding the party’s future after Trump. They challenge narratives like those espoused by Jeff Flake and Mike Pence, discuss Democrats' big wins in recent elections, and share firsthand insights from voter focus groups. The hosts also riff on the enduring influence of Trump, party denialism, and the absence of clear post-Trump leadership in the GOP.

Highlights & Detailed Breakdown

1. Opening Banter and Health Real Talk

• JBL is feeling rough after getting the shingles vaccine; Sarah jokes she’ll “carry him up the mountain.”

  “This is the only time I think I’ve ever…” (A – 00:48)

• Sarah confides she’s already had shingles mildly, so she believes she’s immune (B – 01:42).

2. Democratic Wins & GOP Denial: The Reality of Recent Elections

• Key Segment: [03:14–06:47]

Data on Democratic Victories

• JBL and Sarah discuss how down-ballot and statewide races, especially in Georgia, were landslides for Democrats beyond even optimistic predictions:
  • Abigail Spanberger: 15-point win
  • Mikie Sherrill: 13-point win (in a seat Republicans targeted)

  “It seems like the more data we get from down ballot and small races, the bigger the win seems to have been. Right? Would you agree?” (A – 03:15) “Yeah, yeah. We’ve got 15 points...13 points for Mikey Sher...I did not see a 13-point victory coming.” (B – 03:22/A – 03:56)

Betting on Outcomes (and Vegas)

• Sarah admits she made bets with her team on victory margins, promising a Vegas trip for big wins—now she’s on the hook.

  “If Abigail Spamberger gets 13 plus...If Mikey Sheryl gets seven plus...Okay guys, we’ll go to Vegas.” (B – 04:05)

Republican Denial

• Discuss how most of the GOP, except Trump himself ("he gets it"), are either ignoring or minimizing the significance of their defeats.

  “Republicans are weirdly doing this thing where they like refuse to acknowledge how destroyed they got, except for Trump who’s kind of saying…we lost because of the shutdown.” (B – 05:52)

3. The Flake Delusion: Denying Trump’s Enduring Hold on the GOP

• Key Segment: [06:47–10:35]

Jeff Flake’s “Migration” Theory

• Discussion centers on a Jeff Flake op-ed claiming a “migration” away from Trump among Republicans.

  JBL reads: “…a migration has begun within the Republican Party.” (A – 07:18) “So first of all, I just don’t think that’s necessarily true. Like, you just state it’s not true.” (A – 07:28) “No, it’s delusional.” (B – 08:30)

Frustration with Old-Guard Conservatism

• Sarah and JBL reject the premise that conservatism is quietly returning; they see “delusion” and failure to understand the current party.

  "I am. I’m a little embarrassed for these guys who somehow have no idea what’s happening in their own party." (B – 09:17) “If Mike Pence thinks that there is a base of the Republican Party who is going to read his book and say, ‘Yes, yes, this is what I want to return to,’ he’s wrong.” (B – 09:36)

Core Flaw in Republican “Migration”

• JBL and Sarah point out the contradiction: if standing up to Trump is only safe for those not facing reelection, then the “migration” has zero operational impact.

  “It’s implicit in the thing that you’re saying…if you’re not up for reelection, you have some opportunity to speak out…which is something that they’ve all internalized.” (B – 10:00)

4. Trump’s Unique Place in the GOP & Post-Trump Leadership Void

• Key Segment: [10:35–15:20]

GOP Without Trump: No Appetite for Old-School Republicans

• Sarah recounts focus group data: even Trump voters—outside a “few performatively MAGA” outliers—don’t want Trump running forever and crave new faces.

  “Every now and then, you get somebody who’s like, yeah, King Trump forever, let’s go. …these Republicans are all like, no, he can’t run again. And guess why—they believe in term limits.” (B – 13:39)

• When pressed on who’s next if not Trump, the responses are scattershot: JD (Vance), Tulsi (Gabbard), Tucker (Carlson), with little consensus.

  “It was funny how there was like a few Tulsi’s...we didn’t get Candace this time, but we did get Tucker.” (B – 14:33)

Sarah Teases the Next Focus Group Episode

• They’ll do a deep dive on the “after-Trump” focus group findings in an upcoming episode.

  “We’ve asked a lot of groups. …This is the episode we’re gonna do on Saturday…” (B – 14:46)

5. The “Catch-22” of GOP Succession—And Why Flake’s Thesis Misses the Point

• Key Segment: [15:20–17:32]

Each Election Makes the GOP’s Dilemma Sharper

• Every cycle makes the party’s “lame duckness” more apparent and forces the search for post-Trump leadership.

  “With each election moves us to start looking forward instead of backward, which has people then asking the question after Trump.” (B – 15:59)

• The party’s lack of muscle memory for anything except Trumpian politics is obvious; Flake’s thesis about a return to old norms is seen as profoundly out-of-touch.

  “We don’t have the muscle memory now as a party, as an institution, to do anything other than Trump because he’s so thoroughly captured and brain drained and shifted who we are.” (B – 16:28)

The Marjorie Taylor Greene Factor

• Real “movement” in the party isn’t toward centrism—it’s figures like Greene “freelancing,” signaling further extremism, not restoration.

6. Closing Moments: Loyalty, Motivation, and Pledges

• Sarah jokingly promises never to “take an enormous bag of money to provide cover for Donald Trump” if people support Bulwark Plus (B – 18:09).
• Light-hearted banter about competing with Barry Weiss’s Substack, with Sarah hinting if they overtake The Free Press, “everybody who subscribed to veg,” will get a treat—though it’s unclear what.

  “Come be with us on the other side, guys.” (A – 19:02)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• JBL, on Shingles Vaccine:

  “I just feel like somebody has run a steamroller Fish Called Wanda style over my entire body.” (01:10)

• Sarah, on Republican Delusion:

  “No, it’s delusional. And I gotta say, like, my… I’m a little embarrassed for these guys who somehow have no idea what’s happening in their own party.” (08:30, 09:17)

• Sarah, cutting through Flake’s argument:

  “You, it’s implicit in the thing that you’re saying, which is if you’re not up for reelection, then you have some opportunity to speak out, because if you are up for reelection, obviously you can’t speak out then, which is something that they’ve all internalized.” (10:00)

• Sarah, on focus group findings:

  “Every now and then, you get somebody who’s like, yeah, King Trump forever, let’s go. Everybody’s against it...they were like, I don’t know, I don’t know.” (13:39, 14:40)

• JBL, satirical optimism:

  “Just wait till they see how much Trump 2028 triggers the libs. They’ll get on board then.” (15:20)

• Sarah, on party ossification:

  “We don’t have the muscle memory now as a party, as an institution, to do anything other than Trump because he’s so thoroughly captured and brain drained and shifted who we are.” (16:28)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Democratic wins & Vegas bets: 03:14–05:07
• GOP denial & Trump’s singularity: 06:47–09:03
• Jeff Flake’s “migration” argument dissected: 07:18–10:35
• Focus group revelations on Trump’s future: 13:39–15:20
• “Catch-22” of post-Trump GOP: 15:26–17:32

Tone and Takeaways

Wry, skeptical, and data-driven, this episode is a full-throated rebuttal of centrist fantasies about a post-Trump Republican restoration. The hosts mix political analysis, focus group insights, and their signature conversational energy, hammering the point that Trumpism isn’t a passing phase—but a fundamental transformation for the GOP, with no clear next act in sight.