Transcript

Sarah Longwell (0:00)

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Tim Miller (1:00)

Cyber week deals at BJ's Wholesale Club are so great we called in the North Pole's top IT expert to tell you about them.

Sarah Longwell (1:06)

Al the IT elf here. This time of year, I'm asking everyone two things. Have you tried rebooting and have you seen BJ's Cyber Week savings through December 7th, get a $20 digital coupon. When you spend 200 plus through December 4th, get up to 40% off TVs, tech and appliances. And like remembering your password, remember that these deals are only on BJ's.com or the BJ's app.

Tim Miller (1:27)

Visit BJ's.com cyberweek for holiday savings.

Sarah Longwell (1:30)

Don't you think that's what Mike Johnson looks like on Cyber? The elf on the shelf, the elf from Rudolph.

Tim Miller (1:34)

They both feel like they'd have a very uncomfortable touch. Like, could you imagine giving the hug to Mike Johnson? It feels like a chill would go down your son, wouldn't he? He would have to alert his son, right?

JVL (1:47)

Hello everyone. This is JVL here in Meatspace in real life with my best friends, Sarah Longwell.

JVL (1:56)

Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Welcome to the Next Level Live. It's a very special holiday edition.

Tim Miller (2:01)

Are we live?

JVL (2:03)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Next Level — Ep. 1038

Title: Mike Johnson’s Speakership Is Hanging by Dental Floss
Date: December 4, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Episode Overview

This week’s episode is a robust in-person discussion among Sarah, Tim, and JVL, focusing on the fracturing House GOP, Mike Johnson’s precarious speakership, intra-party feuds (notably with Elise Stefanik), the fallout from recent military war crimes news, Trump administration developments, and a reflection on journalistic responsibility in handling controversial figures and interviews.

Tone: Wry, sharp, politically savvy, frequently irreverent.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mike Johnson vs. Elise Stefanik: The House GOP War

Opening Salvo:
- JVL opens with news of a public rift. Elise Stefanik calls Speaker Mike Johnson a "novice" and claims he couldn't be re-elected Speaker today (02:26).
- Sarah and JVL call out Stefanik for exaggerating the GOP's underperformance:
  
  “It's a lie, though, that this is the most they've underperformed in the Trump era.” – Sarah (02:52)
The Policy Dispute:
- Stefanik wanted an amendment requiring federal law enforcement to notify Congress before opening counterintelligence probes into politicians (04:02).
- Tim sides (rarely) with Johnson for blocking this:
  
  “If you go back to 2016... it would basically just neuter the ability to do any sort of counterintelligence investigation against elected officials.” – Tim (04:54)
Motivations & Machinations:
- Sarah speculates on Stefanik’s political ambitions—governor or Speaker—seeing her as opportunistic:
  
  “She's... decided to pick a fight with Mike Johnson at a time when I think he is not just weak, but in danger of losing the gavel.” – Sarah (06:44)
- Tim doubts her New York governor ambitions and sees her as careerist but with little real MAGA support:
  
  "This is why I'm on the Mike Johnson side. I feel blood in the water about Elise's career..." – Tim (09:47)
Deeper Take:
- All three agree both Johnson and Stefanik are deeply flawed, emblematic of GOP instability (11:53).

2. War Crimes Controversy: U.S. Military Strikes

The Story:
- Washington Post exposes U.S. military killed survivors after blowing up a suspected drug boat (13:45).
- Pete Hegseth gets implicated for potentially ordering the strike but claims ignorance as the story unravels (14:41).
Reaction and Analysis:
- Hosts dissect military and MAGA response—a mix of bravado and strategic denial:
  
  “MAGA is formally in favor of war criming... you would think if they were going to be true to themselves, they would just own this...” – JVL (21:22)
- Sarah and Tim highlight internal Defense Department finger-pointing and damage control as a sign of pending shake-ups (19:12, 31:12).
The Drug War Rationale:
- Tim questions origin of the claim that each drug boat kills "25,000 Americans," highlighting the administration's fuzzy math and the disconnect from actual trafficking routes (24:26).
- The move from "drug boats" to "narco-terrorism" is read as legal/PR positioning (29:14).
Political Fallout:
- Discussion of internal power struggles: Does Hegseth survive? Laura Loomer’s scoop about potential Pentagon shake-ups (30:12).
- Sarah notes that betrayals within the Administration signal weakening trust:
  
  “People now in his own department know this is not a guy who's gonna stand with us. He will give us illegal orders and then hang us out to dry.” (31:12)

3. Immigration, “Re-migration” & Demographic Worries

Triggering Event:
- Horrific killing of National Guards in the border region prompts Trump to call for "reverse migration," even for naturalized citizens (38:32).
- Sarah notes: "He's both now talking about denaturalizing people and telling people who are naturalized American citizens or just American citizens from countries he doesn't like, like Somalia..." (39:34)
Policy Implications:
- Tim warns U.S. could experience actual population decline for the first time, with economic and social safety net ramifications:
  
  “We're gonna have actual population decline... And their plan, seeing that, is ratchet that up. We need more people leaving, fewer people in.” (40:35)
- Sarah flags consequences for aging Baby Boomers and the care workforce (41:25).
Rhetoric Exposed:
- JVL and Tim critique the MAGA position as nativist and inconsistent with their supposed "big beautiful door" rhetoric (43:01).
Political Realignment:
- Sarah notes Hispanic voters are peeling off Trump due to policy excesses (47:30).
- Tim and JVL underscore how even pro-Trump immigrants are likely to be disillusioned as the tent narrows further.

4. Media Critique & Journalistic Ethics: The Olivia Nuzzi Interview

Meta-Conversation:
- Tim addresses criticism over “platforming” controversial figures and reflects on the tension between exposing ideas and amplifying bad actors (52:00):
  
  “I just think that the left made a huge mistake over the last five years by deciding... the right thing to do was to try to otherize... And I just don't know how you can look at the last 10 years and think that that was a winning strategy.” (53:39)
Sarah’s View:
- She draws a distinction between platforming harmful nobodies and interrogating powerful, newsworthy actors:
  
  “...someone who is at the center of a conversation about the nature of journalism... that is a person worthy of asking questions to.” (55:59)
The Nuzzi Interview Debrief:
- Tim summarizes his take:
  
  “I don't think that she should have been doing any of these interviews...” – Tim (56:34)
  He describes the interview as exposing her lack of accountability, especially around her role in facilitating RFK's rise to Health Secretary.
- Sarah is more blunt:
  
  “The behavior is so bad and so reprehensible... I don't know what the obligation is of an interviewer to try to... force somebody to take accountability for something they clearly aren't interested in taking accountability for...” (63:07)

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

On House GOP Chaos:
- JVL: “Whereas Kevin McCarthy was a political animal, Mike Johnson is a political novice. And boy, does it show.” (02:26)
- Tim: “...they both have great points about how each other are terrible is maybe the right way to settle on it.” (06:09)
On Mike Johnson’s Public Image:
- Sarah: “I've been trying to figure out what Mike Johnson looks like. The elf from Rudolph... I think he's a dead ringer.” (06:22)
- Tim: “Could you imagine giving the hug to Mike Johnson? It feels like a chill would get on your son, wouldn't he?” (06:30)
On War Crimes and MAGA:
- JVL: “MAGAs formally in favor of war criming. Right. This is like one of the things that Trump has done with pardons. Hegseth wrote a whole book about this.” (21:22)
- Tim: “We're doing these war crimes for a war that literally only Marco is for. Like, it's hard to find anyone else who's like, super excited about this.” (22:24)
On Population Decline:
- Tim: “I think that we're going to have population decline in America this year... Their plan is ratchet that up. We need more people leaving, fewer people in.” (40:35)
On Platforming vs. Interviewing:
- Tim: “I just think that the left made a huge mistake over the last five years by deciding the right thing to do was to try to otherize... not engage with anybody over there. And I just don't know how you can look at the last 10 years and think that that was a winning strategy.” (53:39)
- Sarah: “That is platforming. That is taking someone who doesn't have a platform and giving them your large platform in order to just flood the zone with garbage. That is different than somebody who is at the center of a conversation...” (55:59)

Segment Timestamps

Mike Johnson/Stefanik Rift: 02:01 – 13:00
War Crimes Controversy: 13:43 – 34:20
Immigration/Re-migration: 38:15 – 47:59
Focus Group Takeaways & Demographic Shifts: 43:44 – 48:38
Media, Platforming, and the Olivia Nuzzi Interview: 50:12 – 65:13

Memorable Moment

Pop Culture Sidebar:
- Tim and Sarah compare Mike Johnson to “the elf from Rudolph,” playfully speculating on his awkward public persona (06:22).

Overall Takeaway

This episode diagnoses the deepening dysfunction within House GOP leadership, exposes the contradictions in current MAGA rhetoric on issues from war crimes to immigration, and offers a sharp self-audit on the responsibility of media in controversial times. It’s a must-listen for those interested in the mechanics of GOP meltdown, the perils of populist power, and the future of political journalism.

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1038: Mike Johnson’s Speakership Is Hanging by Dental Floss | The Next Level