The Next Level – Episode 1040: "Republicans Can Smell Trump’s Weakness"

Date: December 10, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Episode Overview

In this dynamic and acerbic episode, Sarah, Tim, and JVL dissect the emerging fractures within the GOP, the subtle but real decline in Trump’s authority, the roles and motivations of Republican women in Congress, and the Democratic Senate races looming on the horizon. As always, their signature banter and incisive takes unpack not just the headlines, but the underlying trends animating American politics. The conversation ranges from Republican infighting, the “America First” vs. “MAGA” distinction, and the implications of Trump’s waning grip, to a granular discussion of Senate matchups and institutional strain in government.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. GOP Women, Mike Johnson, and the MAGA/America First Fault Line

• Republican Women Target Mike Johnson:
  • Several prominent Republican women (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Elise Stefanik, Nancy Mace) are openly criticizing Speaker Mike Johnson.
  • Sarah: “These members of Congress, not just the women…this is a matter of Donald Trump’s agenda failing. And because nobody can name Trump as the origin of their problems, they choose Mike Johnson as the foil. He is now the stand-in for the MAGA establishment that is failing.” (03:44)
• America First vs. MAGA:
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene distinguishes “America First” from “MAGA” in a recent interview, suggesting an emerging schism in the party.
  • Sarah: “MAGA is like whatever Trump says is the law… Mike Johnson is MAGA… America First is, no, you promised us a more populist and economic structure… I think you’re going to start to see this tension and in fact this rift.” (05:01)
• Johnson as Scapegoat:
  • Johnson isn’t the root of GOP dysfunction, but he’s become the vessel for intra-party frustration, especially as Trump’s policies lose efficacy.

2. Trump’s Waning Power – Symptoms and Implications

• Congressional Dysfunction, Leadership Vacuums:
  • Both House and Senate Republicans feel rudderless; John Thune described as the “strongest” leader despite being perceived as a non-entity.
  • Tim: “The winner kind of by a landslide was John Thune... That spoke to just how weak everyone is over there. Like, there’s no leader. Congress is totally rudderless and leaderless.” (08:50)
• Why Are Rebels Speaking Out Now?
  • Tim: “Trump’s political weakness is what is giving people, I think, an opening—not yet to go after Trump, but to carve out their own little niche... We'll start with Mike Johnson.” (07:36)
  • Sarah: “The more lame duck Trump is, the more he’s just going to do what he wants... Republicans are suffering the downstream political problems of his unpopularity. Trump doesn’t suffer any downstream consequences that they do.” (17:43)
• Populist Authoritarian Transition:
  • JVL: “In the course of every populist authoritarian takeover, there’s a transition period... [Trump] has so much institutional power now... to start doing things that are unpopular and control by force.” (18:29)

3. Marjorie Taylor Greene on 60 Minutes & Her Play Against Trump

• MAGA Civil War?:
  • Greene openly rebuffs the MAGA label in favor of “America First.”
  • Tim: “She’s still her crazy self, and that’s what I kind of loved about it… she actually is being critical of Trump for being too pro-vaccine, too nice to Israel, abandoned the populist movement.” (23:30)
  • Sarah: “There is a difference between recognizing when somebody is a good wedge that you help elevate, versus being like, but how do we make her ours? You don’t make her yours. You recognize the utility of the wedge.” (25:16)
• Trump's Response:
  • Sarah: “This is classic Trump where a Republican speaking out against him is the worst thing… If you’re a made woman… and you speak out against the boss, like this, he’s going to get you.” (26:24)

4. Elise Stefanik’s Peril and Republican Loyalty

• Stefanik Draws a Primary Challenger:
  • The group relishes the schadenfreude of Stefanik—formerly a moderate, now “MAGA”—receiving ambiguous support from Trump.
  • JVL: “My favorite thing about Trump is when people have given you their careers, their souls, their dignity… and when they run for their big job, you go, ‘I can’t choose. They both seem great.’” (27:50)
  • Sarah: “I do think that Elise is trying to get out of this race now... it just wouldn't surprise me if there was a Jim Jordan–Elise Stefanik thing in the making.” (32:34)
• Does Anyone Really Like Stefanik?
  • Perception that Stefanik lacks genuine allies outside power calculus—her “flip” from neocon darling to MAGA loyalist left few real friends.

5. Democratic Senate Primaries, Strategic Identity, and “Heterodox” Candidates

• Jasmine Crockett in Texas:
  • Tim: “What I am talking about…what I’m interested in in red state races is people that are heterodox, not moderate per se. People that are taking different types of views on issues and that would mean running against the Democratic Party on something.” (38:56)
  • Sarah: “Not only did Trump win the state by 14 points, it was 13.9... this isn't a moderate vs. progressive situation; this is about who's right for Texas in this race.” (45:03)
  • Both agree: for Democratic breakthroughs in Texas, candidate profile matters more than splitting “moderate”/“progressive” hairs. Winning requires persuading moderate Republicans, not just juicing base turnout.
• Electability Math:
  • Tim: “One way to look at the Allred race is to say, man, he lost by eight and a half points… another way to look at it is he ran five and a half points ahead of Harris on the same ticket against Cruz. That’s meaningfully better.” (50:18)
  • Sarah: “Republicans are popping champagne right now to have Crockett... she said things like calling the governor ‘Governor Hot Wheels,’ the oppo file on her is thick.” (51:53)

6. Trump’s Plans for the Midterms (“Put Him on the Ballot”)

• Susie Wiles’ Claim:
  • Sarah: “When Trump is not literally on the ballot but he’s ‘on the ballot’ in voters’ minds... it always works out badly for Republicans. We saw it in 18, we saw it in 22. For the love of God, put him on the ballot.” (55:55)
  • Hosts agree: Making the campaign a referendum on Trump is a known disaster for GOP midterm performance.

7. Venezuela, Foreign Policy, and the Growing Sense of Chaos

• Trump's Military Adventures:
  • JVL and the panel note Trump’s promised “boat strike” video on Venezuela never materialized, feeding into perceptions of chaos and distraction.
  • Tim: “It is contributing to a sense that Trump is out of touch... what his biggest political vulnerability is... people think he’s like, it’s a shit show, and he cares about the wrong stuff.” (59:50)

8. Institutional Strain: Supreme Court and Federalism

• Upcoming SCOTUS Rulings:
  • JVL: “If the idea is that every job in the federal government is now a political appointee and there is no guarantee of continuity or institutional knowledge... this fundamentally changes how America works.” (68:08)
• Norm-Erosion Concerns:
  • Tim: “I just think that there are going to be a lot of things like that, unfortunately, and this is one of them... this is just the consequence of electing this fucking guy twice.” (69:25)
  • Sarah: “This Supreme Court has been undermining checks and balances the whole time… every election now, the blood sport of it... if you think it’s been bad, it is going to increase now.” (71:10)
• On Expanding the Supreme Court:
  • Sara: “I’m still not for court packing. You’ll never get me on court pack. That just ends up… it will ever be ever expansive.” (73:45)
  • JVL: “But the problem is if you don’t tit-for-tat, then you get the same thing. Right?” (74:03)

9. Welfare for Farmers & Democratic Opportunity

• Trump’s Bailout for Farmers in Iowa:
  • Sarah: “The reason Trump is doing this is because things are looking awful for Republicans in Iowa... how well Democrats are going to do in the 2026 midterms—is going to, we’re going to see it in Iowa.” (77:08)
• Tim: “More welfare for farmers. Democrats should flank him on the left. You don’t even have to grow anything and we’ll pay you.” (32:32; reprised 76:32)
• Sarah: “It might keep some of the direct farmers for like a minute. There’s a whole economy based on it there… it might help some of the direct farmers for a moment, but the broader impact is uncertain.” (77:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sarah (on GOP's leadership crisis):
  “MAGA is like whatever Trump says is the law… America First is, no, you promised us a more populist and economic structure… I think you’re going to start to see this tension and in fact this rift.” (05:01)
• Tim (on John Thune’s “leadership”):
  “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. The tanned one eyed man.” (08:50)
• Sarah (on Trump as a ‘lame duck’):
  “The more lame duck he is, the more he’s just going to do whatever he wants because he’s not constrained by an actual election.” (17:43)
• JVL (on the next phase of authoritarianism):
  “There’s a transition period where the aspiring authoritarian goes from resting on popular support for his project to having captured enough power that he can then start doing things that are unpopular and control by force.” (18:29)
• Sarah (on the utility of dissident Republicans):
  “There is a difference between recognizing when somebody is a good wedge that you help elevate, versus being like, but how do we make her ours? You don’t make her yours. You recognize the utility of the wedge.” (25:16)
• Tim (on Jasmine Crockett vs. Texas reality):
  “You need to win over people somehow. … Just getting attention for attention’s sake is not the answer.” (42:44)
• Sarah (on court expansion):
  “You’ll never get me on court pack. That just ends up… it will ever be ever expansive.” (73:45)
• JVL (on Supreme Court realities):
  “If the idea is that every single job in the federal government is now a political appointee… this fundamentally changes how America works.” (68:08)
• Tim (summarizing the mood):
  “It is contributing to a sense that Trump is out of touch… what his biggest political vulnerability is… people think he’s like, it’s a shit show, and he cares about the wrong stuff.” (59:50)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• GOP women, Mike Johnson, America First vs. MAGA: 01:10–06:42
• Trump’s erosion of power, John Thune & GOP leadership: 06:42–10:30
• Congressional dysfunction, Pelosi nostalgia: 10:30–12:52
• Trump’s legislative vs. executive style: 12:52–14:28
• Populist authoritarian parallels: 18:29
• Epstein files & intra-GOP anger: 19:37–20:14
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, 60 Minutes, Democratic response: 23:19–25:37
• Stefanik primary, Trump’s betrayal: 27:16–28:48
• Texas Senate race (Crockett vs. Allred, “heterodox”): 35:04–51:28
• Trump on the ballot—midterm lessons: 55:55
• Venezuela/foreign policy chaos: 57:53–60:43
• Supreme Court, executive power, norms: 68:08–73:57
• Farmers, welfare, Iowa’s significance: 76:14–78:45

Final Thoughts

This episode is a rich examination of how the GOP is fragmenting under the pressures of Trump’s weakened—yet still dangerous—leadership, the emergence of a battle between “America First” and “MAGA” camps, and the precariousness of Democratic electoral strategy in tough states. Sarah, Tim, and JVL combine clear-eyed institutional analysis with biting humor and practical skepticism, making this episode essential listening for those wanting insight into the party power struggles, the democratic backsliding, and the coming storm of American politics in 2026.

[Produced by The Bulwark | www.thebulwark.com]