1040: Republicans Can Smell Trump’s Weakness

Summary

The Next Level – Episode 1040: "Republicans Can Smell Trump’s Weakness"

Date: December 10, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

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Episode Overview

In this dynamic and acerbic episode, Sarah, Tim, and JVL dissect the emerging fractures within the GOP, the subtle but real decline in Trump’s authority, the roles and motivations of Republican women in Congress, and the Democratic Senate races looming on the horizon. As always, their signature banter and incisive takes unpack not just the headlines, but the underlying trends animating American politics. The conversation ranges from Republican infighting, the “America First” vs. “MAGA” distinction, and the implications of Trump’s waning grip, to a granular discussion of Senate matchups and institutional strain in government.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. GOP Women, Mike Johnson, and the MAGA/America First Fault Line

• Republican Women Target Mike Johnson:
  • Several prominent Republican women (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Elise Stefanik, Nancy Mace) are openly criticizing Speaker Mike Johnson.
  • Sarah: “These members of Congress, not just the women…this is a matter of Donald Trump’s agenda failing. And because nobody can name Trump as the origin of their problems, they choose Mike Johnson as the foil. He is now the stand-in for the MAGA establishment that is failing.” (03:44)
• America First vs. MAGA:
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene distinguishes “America First” from “MAGA” in a recent interview, suggesting an emerging schism in the party.
  • Sarah: “MAGA is like whatever Trump says is the law… Mike Johnson is MAGA… America First is, no, you promised us a more populist and economic structure… I think you’re going to start to see this tension and in fact this rift.” (05:01)
• Johnson as Scapegoat:
  • Johnson isn’t the root of GOP dysfunction, but he’s become the vessel for intra-party frustration, especially as Trump’s policies lose efficacy.

2. Trump’s Waning Power – Symptoms and Implications

• Congressional Dysfunction, Leadership Vacuums:
  • Both House and Senate Republicans feel rudderless; John Thune described as the “strongest” leader despite being perceived as a non-entity.
  • Tim: “The winner kind of by a landslide was John Thune... That spoke to just how weak everyone is over there. Like, there’s no leader. Congress is totally rudderless and leaderless.” (08:50)
• Why Are Rebels Speaking Out Now?
  • Tim: “Trump’s political weakness is what is giving people, I think, an opening—not yet to go after Trump, but to carve out their own little niche... We'll start with Mike Johnson.” (07:36)
  • Sarah: “The more lame duck Trump is, the more he’s just going to do what he wants... Republicans are suffering the downstream political problems of his unpopularity. Trump doesn’t suffer any downstream consequences that they do.” (17:43)
• Populist Authoritarian Transition:
  • JVL: “In the course of every populist authoritarian takeover, there’s a transition period... [Trump] has so much institutional power now... to start doing things that are unpopular and control by force.” (18:29)

3. Marjorie Taylor Greene on 60 Minutes & Her Play Against Trump

• MAGA Civil War?:
  • Greene openly rebuffs the MAGA label in favor of “America First.”
  • Tim: “She’s still her crazy self, and that’s what I kind of loved about it… she actually is being critical of Trump for being too pro-vaccine, too nice to Israel, abandoned the populist movement.” (23:30)
  • Sarah: “There is a difference between recognizing when somebody is a good wedge that you help elevate, versus being like, but how do we make her ours? You don’t make her yours. You recognize the utility of the wedge.” (25:16)
• Trump's Response:
  • Sarah: “This is classic Trump where a Republican speaking out against him is the worst thing… If you’re a made woman… and you speak out against the boss, like this, he’s going to get you.” (26:24)

4. Elise Stefanik’s Peril and Republican Loyalty

• Stefanik Draws a Primary Challenger:
  • The group relishes the schadenfreude of Stefanik—formerly a moderate, now “MAGA”—receiving ambiguous support from Trump.
  • JVL: “My favorite thing about Trump is when people have given you their careers, their souls, their dignity… and when they run for their big job, you go, ‘I can’t choose. They both seem great.’” (27:50)
  • Sarah: “I do think that Elise is trying to get out of this race now... it just wouldn't surprise me if there was a Jim Jordan–Elise Stefanik thing in the making.” (32:34)
• Does Anyone Really Like Stefanik?
  • Perception that Stefanik lacks genuine allies outside power calculus—her “flip” from neocon darling to MAGA loyalist left few real friends.

5. Democratic Senate Primaries, Strategic Identity, and “Heterodox” Candidates

• Jasmine Crockett in Texas:
  • Tim: “What I am talking about…what I’m interested in in red state races is people that are heterodox, not moderate per se. People that are taking different types of views on issues and that would mean running against the Democratic Party on something.” (38:56)
  • Sarah: “Not only did Trump win the state by 14 points, it was 13.9... this isn't a moderate vs. progressive situation; this is about who's right for Texas in this race.” (45:03)
  • Both agree: for Democratic breakthroughs in Texas, candidate profile matters more than splitting “moderate”/“progressive” hairs. Winning requires persuading moderate Republicans, not just juicing base turnout.
• Electability Math:
  • Tim: “One way to look at the Allred race is to say, man, he lost by eight and a half points… another way to look at it is he ran five and a half points ahead of Harris on the same ticket against Cruz. That’s meaningfully better.” (50:18)
  • Sarah: “Republicans are popping champagne right now to have Crockett... she said things like calling the governor ‘Governor Hot Wheels,’ the oppo file on her is thick.” (51:53)

6. Trump’s Plans for the Midterms (“Put Him on the Ballot”)

• Susie Wiles’ Claim:
  • Sarah: “When Trump is not literally on the ballot but he’s ‘on the ballot’ in voters’ minds... it always works out badly for Republicans. We saw it in 18, we saw it in 22. For the love of God, put him on the ballot.” (55:55)
  • Hosts agree: Making the campaign a referendum on Trump is a known disaster for GOP midterm performance.

7. Venezuela, Foreign Policy, and the Growing Sense of Chaos

• Trump's Military Adventures:
  • JVL and the panel note Trump’s promised “boat strike” video on Venezuela never materialized, feeding into perceptions of chaos and distraction.
  • Tim: “It is contributing to a sense that Trump is out of touch... what his biggest political vulnerability is... people think he’s like, it’s a shit show, and he cares about the wrong stuff.” (59:50)

8. Institutional Strain: Supreme Court and Federalism

• Upcoming SCOTUS Rulings:
  • JVL: “If the idea is that every job in the federal government is now a political appointee and there is no guarantee of continuity or institutional knowledge... this fundamentally changes how America works.” (68:08)
• Norm-Erosion Concerns:
  • Tim: “I just think that there are going to be a lot of things like that, unfortunately, and this is one of them... this is just the consequence of electing this fucking guy twice.” (69:25)
  • Sarah: “This Supreme Court has been undermining checks and balances the whole time… every election now, the blood sport of it... if you think it’s been bad, it is going to increase now.” (71:10)
• On Expanding the Supreme Court:
  • Sara: “I’m still not for court packing. You’ll never get me on court pack. That just ends up… it will ever be ever expansive.” (73:45)
  • JVL: “But the problem is if you don’t tit-for-tat, then you get the same thing. Right?” (74:03)

9. Welfare for Farmers & Democratic Opportunity

• Trump’s Bailout for Farmers in Iowa:
  • Sarah: “The reason Trump is doing this is because things are looking awful for Republicans in Iowa... how well Democrats are going to do in the 2026 midterms—is going to, we’re going to see it in Iowa.” (77:08)
• Tim: “More welfare for farmers. Democrats should flank him on the left. You don’t even have to grow anything and we’ll pay you.” (32:32; reprised 76:32)
• Sarah: “It might keep some of the direct farmers for like a minute. There’s a whole economy based on it there… it might help some of the direct farmers for a moment, but the broader impact is uncertain.” (77:50)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sarah (on GOP's leadership crisis):
  “MAGA is like whatever Trump says is the law… America First is, no, you promised us a more populist and economic structure… I think you’re going to start to see this tension and in fact this rift.” (05:01)
• Tim (on John Thune’s “leadership”):
  “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. The tanned one eyed man.” (08:50)
• Sarah (on Trump as a ‘lame duck’):
  “The more lame duck he is, the more he’s just going to do whatever he wants because he’s not constrained by an actual election.” (17:43)
• JVL (on the next phase of authoritarianism):
  “There’s a transition period where the aspiring authoritarian goes from resting on popular support for his project to having captured enough power that he can then start doing things that are unpopular and control by force.” (18:29)
• Sarah (on the utility of dissident Republicans):
  “There is a difference between recognizing when somebody is a good wedge that you help elevate, versus being like, but how do we make her ours? You don’t make her yours. You recognize the utility of the wedge.” (25:16)
• Tim (on Jasmine Crockett vs. Texas reality):
  “You need to win over people somehow. … Just getting attention for attention’s sake is not the answer.” (42:44)
• Sarah (on court expansion):
  “You’ll never get me on court pack. That just ends up… it will ever be ever expansive.” (73:45)
• JVL (on Supreme Court realities):
  “If the idea is that every single job in the federal government is now a political appointee… this fundamentally changes how America works.” (68:08)
• Tim (summarizing the mood):
  “It is contributing to a sense that Trump is out of touch… what his biggest political vulnerability is… people think he’s like, it’s a shit show, and he cares about the wrong stuff.” (59:50)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• GOP women, Mike Johnson, America First vs. MAGA: 01:10–06:42
• Trump’s erosion of power, John Thune & GOP leadership: 06:42–10:30
• Congressional dysfunction, Pelosi nostalgia: 10:30–12:52
• Trump’s legislative vs. executive style: 12:52–14:28
• Populist authoritarian parallels: 18:29
• Epstein files & intra-GOP anger: 19:37–20:14
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, 60 Minutes, Democratic response: 23:19–25:37
• Stefanik primary, Trump’s betrayal: 27:16–28:48
• Texas Senate race (Crockett vs. Allred, “heterodox”): 35:04–51:28
• Trump on the ballot—midterm lessons: 55:55
• Venezuela/foreign policy chaos: 57:53–60:43
• Supreme Court, executive power, norms: 68:08–73:57
• Farmers, welfare, Iowa’s significance: 76:14–78:45

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a rich examination of how the GOP is fragmenting under the pressures of Trump’s weakened—yet still dangerous—leadership, the emergence of a battle between “America First” and “MAGA” camps, and the precariousness of Democratic electoral strategy in tough states. Sarah, Tim, and JVL combine clear-eyed institutional analysis with biting humor and practical skepticism, making this episode essential listening for those wanting insight into the party power struggles, the democratic backsliding, and the coming storm of American politics in 2026.

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[Produced by The Bulwark | www.thebulwark.com]

Transcript

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More welfare Queen. More welfare for farmers should flank him on the left. You don't even have to grow anything and we'll pay you.

[JVL]

Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller. Separated by technology and thousands of miles as God intended. Guys, we're going to start out by talking about Republican women in Congress. And I gotta say, I for one am shocked that the grown man who has to do Internet accountability stuff with his teenage son is having difficulty having professional relationships with colleagues who happen to be female.

[Tim Miller]

Wow, you are surprised by that. Do you know, have you dealt with any Mike Johnson types in the past? Is this, this, does this come from experience?

[JVL]

I mean, I, I feel like it's a type. It's a type, but. But maybe, maybe not. Maybe not.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is sort of a Mike Pence, you know, I can't be alone with a woman in a place with it where my wife isn't also, which is tough if you want to be, you know, somebody who works for the vice president, which would put you in situations where you are alone together. I think it is a strange.

Is Mike Pence not capable of just being normal around women?

[JVL]

You know, even that is again, still 2 degrees more normal than. I'm going to use my teenage son as my accountability partner to make sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

We'Re both not watching porn. Like that's, that's what it is.

[JVL]

Let's move on because shortly, shortly I want to get to the. I don't mean move on.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to, we're going to.

[JVL]

Oh, we're going to get shovels and dig in on this knife and fork. So we have Marjorie Taylor Greene doing her, her thing, running away from Congress. I'm running away, leaving Congress and shiving Mike Johnson on the way out. We have Lee Stefanik last week in a knife fight with Johnson, we had Anna Paulina going a little rogue. And now we have Nancy Mace writing for the failing New York Times, the fake news New York Times. I don't know why she would do that if all they do is lie. Why would she if they're not? Anyway, she wrote about how, what's the point of Congress? Mike Johnson is a laughingstock. And you know, Nancy Pelosi a way better speaker.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guys, do you want me to take this first, Tim? Sure, because I know Tim wants first dibs on second segment, so I'll go on this one. Here's the thing about Johnson. These members of Congress, not just the women, it's interesting that it's getting framed up as the women. I think they're the ones willing to speak out. But this is a matter of Donald Trump's agenda failing. And because nobody can name Trump as the origin of their problems is they choose Mike Johnson as the foil, right? He is now the standin for the MAGA establishment That is failing. And this is important. And I, I'll just, without preempting something, I want to talk about Marjorie Taylor Green's interview because she said something that to me was deeply interesting. She was asked during her 60 Minutes interview, Are you Maga? And Marjorie Taylor Green said, I am America First. MAGA is President Trump's phrase. I call myself America First. So then she says, so you're saying. So you're not saying you're maga. Marjorie Taylor Greene, I am America First. This is very interesting to me because I think that the schism that's coming in the Republican Party is actually going to boil down to MAGA and America First. And you may think, but those two things are the same, but they're not. They're not. Actually MAGA number one now is the establishment. But MAGA is like whatever Trump says is the law, and we will do that. And that's what Mike Johnson is. Mike Johnson is maga. That's just like whatever Trump wants, America first is. No, you promised us a more populist and economic structure. We were going to make things more affordable for Americans. Now, in the Venn diagram of America first and maga, there's overlap, right? There are things like closing the border. That's MAGA and America First. But the tariffs, the tariffs, which Trump would call part of his America first agenda, actually is abetting and accelerating the affordability crisis. So I'm not sure that's America first. But like Tucker Carlson is America First. Mike Johnson is maga, and I think you're going to start to see this tension and in fact, this rift. By the way, this means that the previous, like, well, I'm just a Republican. I believe in limited government, free markets, and American leadership in the world no longer has a role. It's no longer as a place. These are.

[JVL]

They don't even get to be the insurgents.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tim Miller]

How the libertarians used to be. There'll be like three of those members, you know, kind of how it's like Massey and Rand Paul. There'll be like three Reagan conservatives in there.

[Sarah Longwell]

So that's my. That is my ultimate take, is that. That the Johnson stuff. It really is. I don't know how to get out from under Trump's failing policies, and I need a scapegoat. And he's. He's it.

[Tim Miller]

I agree with that. And I would, I guess I would add on top of it. Like, you know, some of this isn't even really ideology. And if you look at, like, the types of people offering this complaint, it's Elise, it's. It's Nancy Mace, it's. It's Marjorie, right? Like, some of it is just like, this is bubbling up because of the incompetence and ineffectiveness of the Trump agenda, right? It's like, what was keeping everybody in line before? Like, why did this bubble up now versus before? Like, part of it is just like personality feuds of a Republican House. But, like, another part of it is that they felt like the golden age was here for a while, and that was really true. And they were also thinking, maybe Trump is in the third term. Maybe we're in a Trump in the back of their old heads. They don't know. They're like, maybe we are in a soft Trump dictatorship now. And so I'm gonna stay on board because he seems so strong.

Things are good. Comedians are complimenting him now. Football players are doing the Trump dance. The Silicon Valley guys are bowing down to it. Right? That impacted all of their king. Right? And so it's like, well, okay, I guess I'll just go along and do nothing. Because that's what Congress has done this year. Nothing. Which is what has undermined the Nancy, Nancy Mace complaint. And, you know, what do I get out of it? Well, feeling like I'm on the winning team. I get invited to the White House for stuff. I go to MMA things. People cheer for me, right? Like, and, and now Trump's political weakness, you know, is what. Is what is giving people, I think, an opening, not yet to go after Trump, right? He's not so weak that people are like, we got to move on from Trump. But he's like, weak enough that people are like, you know, I gotta kind of carve out my own little niche here, my own lane. I've got a little bit more room. We'll start with Mike Johnson. We'll dip our toe in the water on going after Mike Johnson first and blame him. But, but the Trump weakness is there. Just one other side thing. And jvl, I want to your take. There's a funny poll. I apologize to whichever outlet did it, but they interviewed all of the members of both parties and asked them, like, who is the strongest and weakest leader of the both parties. And the winner kind of by a landslide was John Thune.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thune.

[Tim Miller]

And to me, that spoke to just how weak everyone is over there. Like, there's no leader. Like, Congress is totally rudderless and leaderless. It's like John Thune has done nothing. Like, what is John Thune? Like, Jonathan was like kind of won by accident. Like, it was like, it's like a participation trophy. He's like, nobody's actively mad at him, so they're going to give it to him. But like the Senate hasn't done anything. I mean, they've, you know, not, they've confirmed Trump's nominations, but. But not. But really had a record of number of nominations that are unconfirmed, actually. And they passed the BBB and they kept the government open. Like, that's literally all they've done. And people are looking at, it's like, well, John Thune, in the land of midgets, the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king. The tanned one eyed man.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, I saw that too and thought that was interesting. But here's what I would. Here's what I think is happening. Thune is doing a better job of keeping the moderates in his party on side than Johnson is doing of keeping the crazy people. Not that I'm calling all the women crazy, but like these, like Nancy Mace. Nancy Mace isn't the great truth teller. Marjorie Taylor Greene, I think, is not quite the great truth teller. These are people who think like, I have my own brand, I have my own power centers, and I'm going to go and like, Johnson can't control these ambitious women who want to be America first and soon can control Murkowski and Collins and Dr. You know, vaccines are now gone. Cassidy. And so I think that's why he got that nod.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe also the misogyny of Johnson. Sorry, David. Last thing is funny from the Nancy Mace op ed to can either of you name. Because I couldn't. This is not a gotcha. The current chair of the House Republican Conference. This was Elise's job last time. Just for a sense of who that might be, it's a woman named Lisa McClain. And in an interview with Stephen Miller's wife, Mike Johnson talked about how Lisa is a wonderful cook. Oh, she's a little cringe. And Nancy in her op ed, it's like she might be a good cook. I'd wager she's an even better legislator. But we'll never know because we're not doing any of that. I mean, like, that's pretty brutal.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, her thing about Nancy Pelosi, I will say there's something funny that happens with both Republicans and Democrats. I hear this all the time from voters and they in the, on the operative side, in the legislator class, everybody thinks the other side is doing it better. Like if you ask Democrats, are we so good at holding our conference together? Are we just crushing it at being unified and everything? Democrats would laugh so hard at like the herding cats that they have to do. She is right. Nancy Pelosi was better at it than Mike Johnson is at what he's doing. But like, I don't think that, I'm not sure both sides have their problems and limitations. I'm not sure either side's crushing it in this regard.

[JVL]

I, okay, I, I, I'm gonna narrowly disagree on this. Thinking back to like the Obama years.

Back before the Republican Party went fully insane, every sort of Republican member who I knew back in those days just had tremendous respect for Pelosi as a leader within the House. I mean, they all just thought, oh yeah, she's really great at this. She's, I mean, they didn't like her obviously, and they didn't like her politics, but they all thought, yes, she's so good at this stuff. She really knows how to manage a conference. And I think the Democrats in Congress have for the last like 15 years or so been much more better organized and in much more cohesive. The difference is like at the executive level, Republicans are better wielding executive power.

I have, I have some questions for you guys. First of all, is part of the problem here that Trump has not had any legislative agenda because the things he wants to do, none of them require legislation.

Right. I mean, Congress doesn't even need to be there because all he wants to do is expand executive authority.

[Tim Miller]

Fair. I mean, some of the stuff you could have doged through Congress, they've just chosen not to. I just mean like some of this stuff could in theory.

[JVL]

Oh, could.

[Tim Miller]

But he didn't want to through Congress.

[JVL]

Yeah. Part of the, the, the Trump project though is establishing the precedent that he doesn't need Congress.

[Sarah Longwell]

But this is my point about why they're pick. They're going after Johnson is like because Nancy Mace's whole op ed is about how let Congress do its job, let us take votes and whatever. And it is not a. She's not going after Trump for sidelining Congress and just using whatever executive authority to do an end run around them. Right. She's going after Johnson and that's Johnson's just doing what Trump wants him to do.

[Tim Miller]

Right. And I guess I would just say jbl, like just. I agree with that. But my point is like that, that is part of the reason why they are speaking out now. Right. It's kind of like the Trump authoritarian project works as long as, as long as they're all scared of him. Right. And they're all, they all feel like it's working. You know, and I think that, you know, if Trump was still popular right now, I don't think you'd be seeing, you'd see Nancy Mace is crazy. She'd be tweeting whatever comes to her mind. But like most of this you wouldn'.

[JVL]

Seeing right now, granting that Trump is less popular and that he's moving in the wrong direction.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Not to just be like me and to be a rain cloud.

[Tim Miller]

No, please.

[JVL]

But he is still is on the plus side of this trade. Right. So yes, he has lost a small handful of people who used to be maga. But on the other hand, he has added David Ellison and.

All of the Silicon Valley people and whole swat. I mean, he now owns huge chunks of the Pentagon and is pushing out generals. I mean, I feel like, I don't want to over interpret feeling like, look, the wheels are falling off the cart because he is losing some support, there is some fracturing. But on the whole, over the last 10 months, he seems to have added a tremendous amount of institutional power to his work.

[Tim Miller]

I think I disagree with this because I think here would be my pitch why he's on the losing side of this trade. I don't know that it's an obvious call at this point, so I'll just say that. But my first blush is that Trump's power mostly emanated from the MAGA Volk. Like he did have institutional power that mattered and took over various levers of certain things allowed him to, you know, so it's not entire, it's not all one or the other, but like the base of his power was, was the Maga Volk. Right. As long as they were with him, the, the Republican Party was never going to be against him. And certain. And people that needed things from him in Washington were not going to be against him because they could see that his power emanated from the people. Right. If that, if that starts to fade and he becomes a normal politician who has a strong base of support, but kind of like a normal politician level base of support where it's waxing and waning.

I think that his ability to control those other levers that you're talking about starts to weaken too. Does that make sense?

[Sarah Longwell]

It does. Let me, let me just try to tease this out a little bit more. So part of it is that people. So Trump is both. He's a lame duck. Okay, so his political. I know, jbl, but just let's, let's assume. Yes, his lame duckness brings with it on one hand a looking forward by members of Congress to say, this guy's not going to be around forever. How do I start consolidating my own power? I could start operating without him. Like, there is a future that goes beyond Trump. Right. There's also the problem of the fact that a wipeout is coming because Trump is unpopular. Like, those are like the political realities. But then there's Trump's power. The more lame duck he is, the more he's just going to do what he wants to do and doesn't care about Congress. And so he can still give people quid pro quos, which is what he's trying to do with, with Kular. What was it? How do it? Yeah, right. He's like, well, I just pardoned you for your corruption. You should go be a Republican now and give us our majority. I. He's tweeting, like, talk to Eric Adams.

[JVL]

That's how this works.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, speaking of Ellison, he's like, how dare you let Marjorie Taylor GREENE Go on 60 Minutes. You guys just had to pay me all this money for 60 minutes and I just gave you your merger. What are you doing? I might stand in front of this now. So Trump still has an enormous power that he wields, being an executive who the courts are not going to constrain and who has deep ambitions to make himself wealthy and to wield his power and make people bring them to heel. So that is real. And like the. Almost like the more lame duck he is, the more he could just do whatever he wants because he's not constrained by an actual election. Republicans are suffering the downstream political problems of his unpopularity. Trump doesn't suffer any downstream consequences that they do. And so that's changing their incentives.

[JVL]

I think what I was trying to suggest, and I should have spelled this out a little bit more, is that in the, in the course of every populist authoritarian takeover, there's a transition period where the aspiring authoritarian goes from resting on popular support for his project to having captured enough power that he can then start doing things that are unpopular and control by force. Right. Like Putin. Putin was. Vladimir Putin was popular once. Right. You know, he won an election and then he got enough power and maneuvered enough things to cronies that he could do things that were no longer popular, and it was okay because he was no longer at risk. I don't know. Like, we're not. We're not there. It's not Russia. But to me, this feels a little bit. A little bit like we're in the midst of somebody attempting that transition. He has so much institutional power now. So many things have bowed to him and broken for him. I don't know.

We have. I'm sorry, go ahead.

[Sarah Longwell]

As, as we wrap. One thing that wasn't mentioned, though, on this with the, with the women, is that I do think that there is genuine anger at Mike Johnson over his willingness to cover for Trump on the Epstein files for some of. And, and, and I, I think, like, Marjorie Taylor Greene is really mad at him about this. Nancy Mace is really mad at him about this. They bucked him on the vote. Like they care enough about it. And so. And again, this is where the mega base or the America first base, whichever, choose. They cared about the Epstein files and they cared about this. And so Johnson blocking it for Trump made some of them angry. Legitimately angry.

[JVL]

I have a question for you about Epstein files, but I'll ask that afterwards. Word from our sponsor. This podcast is sponsored by Laundry Sauce. Guys, I. I love Laundry Sauce so much, I can't even tell you. I gotta read some ad copy, but then I want to tell you an actual real life JBL story about it. There's something about this season. The crisp air, the cozy layers, the unmistakable holiday scent. Laundry Sauce lets you capture that in every wash. From fireside comfort to crisp sophistication, each scent is designed to set the tone for your day. And now for the holidays. Himalayan Cashmere is their newest launch and their first ever hypoallergenic fragrance, created to be gentle on even the most sensitive Skin. A soft blend of airy florals, sweet pear and warm amber wraps you in instant comfort while a base of creamy sandalwood and Himalayan musk lingers. Like your favorite cashmere blanket. It's sophisticated yet inviting, cozy yet elevated. I love it. It's like a quiet mountain retreat in the middle of the holidays. Here's the thing about laundry sauce. We go through a lot of laundry in my house. So much laundry. Six human beings, you know, people who go to the gym and all that. And I, I hide the laundry sauce from my wife so I reserve it just for my laundry. I love it so much I don't like to share it.

[Tim Miller]

Consider just buying another batch.

[JVL]

I mean I could, but again we go through so much laundry like you know, we would need to be getting the, the industrial sized laundry sauce batch.

[Sarah Longwell]

In order to just use the promo code, get more.

[JVL]

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[Tim Miller]

Here's the good news is that everybody's going to start asking for JVL to do the reads because he really does a jumbo, jumbo read. You know, he lathers it on thick and that's great.

[JVL]

I'm passionate about the products. I love Tim.

[Tim Miller]

I love that this is a thing.

[JVL]

I'm an evangelist for the products I love. I would even if they didn't pay us. I talked about the laundry sauce.

Okay, so let's go back to Marjorie Taylor Greene on 60 Minutes on Sunday.

What did you think of her glow up.

[Tim Miller]

I don't. You know, I talked about this. Yeah, I talked about this a little bit with Bill. Here's the thing that I think is meaningful.

She is still her crazy self, and that's what I kind of loved about it. You know, it's like, she's like, oh, you know, Leslie Stahl, it's your fault that we're divided as a country. She's like, what me get you? And she's like, and Trump has really abandoned us by being a little too nice to Israel and the pharma companies. Just like, where was my anti vaccine? Like, this administration has been a little too pro vaccine for my taste. And I love that because that's just unadulterated Marjorie. I think that if Marjorie came out of there and was like, you know what? I decided I want that Republican seat on the View. And all of a sudden, I'm really pro choice. And I love gays. Went to drag brunch on Sunday. They're great. Just got my booster shot. Then you're kind of like, this doesn't do a lot for me. Okay. Like, you've done a full switch. You've come into the light, and I would welcome you if you did that. But politically, it doesn't do a lot for me. I thought that the 60 Minutes thing is interesting politically, to the extent that I'm hoping that Marjorie can cultivate. I don't know what 5, 10% of the MAGA base were like, you know what? I also think that Donald Trump has been too pro vaccine.

[JVL]

Afro America first, America only. Get it on my hat.

[Tim Miller]

I'm interested.

[Sarah Longwell]

There is. There's like, the Democrats start doing Marjorie Taylor Greene comes out, she's being critical of Trump. The Democrats immediately start hand wringing in some weird internessen conversation about, do we welcome her into the tent? What do we do? And I'm like, what are you talking about? What insane planet do you live on where it's like, oh, guys, no, you.

[JVL]

Don'T need to welcome her in. She's not asking.

[Sarah Longwell]

She's not asking, number one. Number two, there is a difference between recognizing when somebody is a good wedge that you help elevate the wedge, versus being like, but how do we make her ours? You don't make her yours. You recognize the utility of the wedge.

[JVL]

Are we supposed to bring her that's in a bottle of wine?

[Tim Miller]

Because she also don't need to condemn the beginning of every sentence. It's like, okay, well, I don't want to normalize her. So before I Say that she did this nice thing. I need to mention all of her list of unforgivables. It's like, please, guys, please.

[JVL]

Trump not happy about it, is he?

[Sarah Longwell]

It seems a little.

[JVL]

I'm getting a little bit of Mean Girls Regina vibe from like. Like he's so obsessed with her.

And, like, more so than she is with him. What do you think that's about? Like, doesn't he normally do a cool customer sort of like, oh, no, I never even heard of her feeling, you know, she was going to lose her seat.

[Tim Miller]

I don't.

[JVL]

Yeah, just move on. That is not his move right now. He seems.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, but this is classic. This is classic Trump where a Republican speaking out against him is the worst thing. He has his design. He. Democrats are a foil for him often, but he needs Republicans to be at heel. He needs to be like, you can't. If you're a made woman.

You, you and you speak out against the boss like this. He's going to get you. You're going to get capped. Right. Because he doesn't want anybody else getting the idea that you can just go around on the mainstream, lamestream fake news media and condemn him. That's the worst sin.

[JVL]

So.

Elise Stefanik has drawn a primary challenger, gentleman named Bruce Blakeman. Listen, I don't know anything about Bruce Blakeman, but I love him.

[Sarah Longwell]

We wish him well.

[JVL]

Would it be wrong for me to donate to his campaign? Because I got to say, I mean, I don't want to get the texts from various vote red, blue or act red, whatever, whatever the Republican version of that is. But I gotta say, for my personal, like, just pleasure, watching Elise lose a Republican primary in New York State would be amazing. I would get a lot out of that. I could get value for money.

[Sarah Longwell]

Did you see what Trump did?

[JVL]

Oh, Oh, I did.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is my favorite. This is my favorite. My favorite thing about Trump. The only thing I like about Trump is when people have given you their careers, their souls, their dignity, they've turned it all over to you. And when they go to run for their big job, you go, I can't choose. They both seem great. Let them run the race.

[Tim Miller]

Great. He's great, she's great. You can never give Trump enough.

[JVL]

Nobody deserves that more than Elise Stefanic.

[Sarah Longwell]

She's up there.

[JVL]

Nobody.

[Tim Miller]

It would almost be better if he.

[JVL]

She must be furious. Like, could you imagine? I, again, just like, things that I would pay for, I would have paid for. Just like nanny cam video of watching her, like, raging wherever she was when she saw that.

[Sarah Longwell]

There is Not a stick of intact furniture in her office.

[Tim Miller]

I just want him to dinger a little. I just want. I wanted a little bit more. I'm sorry, I'm greedy.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, you can't have everything.

[Tim Miller]

I wanted the statement to be like, Bradley Baker's great. Elise is great, but noticing the Ozempic, you know, but.

A little trumpy dig at her since she attacked him on the Zo Run stuff. It's enjoyable. Jbl, do you know who Nancy Shovel is?

[JVL]

I don't, I don't.

[Tim Miller]

It's Paul McCartney's wife. Is current wife. Is. Yeah. Is Blakeman's ex wife. It's interesting. Bruce Blake, he seems like an elite. He seems like he's in the liberal elite, but interesting. Just a little fun fact for you. The. I don't, I don't know anything about him. I just, I hope that he throws in a lot of money. And this is, I think this is gonna be a long, painful elf release which is. I think this is something that can bring us joy. Could you imagine not like throughout this holiday season, but like all the way through next summer and next fall as the, as the air turns cold again. We'll be warned by Elise's long running pain. This is a long, long, long road ahead for her.

[JVL]

I have a question for both of you, please. So I have never liked Elise Stefanik. I did not like her when she was a bright young Republican. And our friend and colleague Bill Kristol loved her so much. I just looked at her, I was like, I can always tell a squealer. And you know.

I have never gotten the sense that she is a particularly adept politician or that her emotional intelligence is super high. Her intellectual intelligence is quite high, but her EQ maybe not super high. And I can't recall any colleague of her ever being like, yeah, no, she's great. Love Elise. Do you think her in the House they're going to be a bunch of Republicans who are like, no, no. We're going to get together, we're going to help her out. We're going to, you know, we're going to try to get her over the line against this interloper.

[Tim Miller]

I'm sure there's some. But because there will always be people that want to do things for personal, you know, whatever advantageous reasons. But she just is woman. Jd. Just a jd. Like it's not. There's people like her sexist.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Thing. Yeah. Because like she. You mentioned Bill, but like when she ran the first time as kind of the moderate neocon hope, like that was how she did it. There's. There's, you know, that was like, she did it by, like, really cultivating the big donors from that world, like Paul Singer and that crowd. And, like, she sucked up to them and I don't know. So at this point, it's hard to say, like, what is the authentic at least. Maybe that was authentic at least. And she just. It happened that, like, her genuine views, you know, had, you know, big influential financial backers that would support her. But she gets in and then there's kind of like reason for people to glom onto her. Right. Because it's like, oh, it's like a young woman who is like, showing a model for, for how Republicans win in the future with these moderate views on climate and gays and, you know, strong foreign policy. And then, you know, she tries that for a while, and then when she sees that's like a dead end, she totally flips to just doing the MAGA thing. Yeah. And when. And getting MAGA benefactors. So, like, when you look at now with like, the distance, it's like, well, who the hell knows what was real? It's like it was just like JD the tiger mom at first, and then he had Peter Thiel and then it was from. And then it was like, oh, it can be. Don Jr. Can be my meal ticket now. Like, and so, you know, like, that type of personality does not tend to engender, like, long term loyalties and friendships.

[Sarah Longwell]

The one person I do think she's close to is Jim Jordan. Like, I. I do think that Elise is trying to get out of this race now. I mean, I think she's screwed in this race.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, gosh.

[Sarah Longwell]

And it would not now. I don't know, though, when they would make this type of move. But it does seem like the coordinated attacks on Johnson have the makings of a couple where somebody's behind it. Somebody else who wants to be speaker, someone else who's putting together a team. And it just wouldn't surprise me if there was a Jim Jordan Elise Stefanik thing in the making.

[JVL]

You are blowing my mind if this happens, by the way. We're gonna point back to this. We're gonna clip this moment in this podcast for forever. Because that's. That's 3D chess.

[Tim Miller]

Imagine how down bad you gotta be. Or you're looking around in your lifeline like, I just need a friend in this world right now, and I'm looking around to find one who can I find who can be my friend that I can grab onto. Jim Jordan.

Okay. I guess it just seems pretty far down the list. But sure, yeah, that makes sense. That's a good theory.

[JVL]

Tim. Got a word from our sponsor.

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

Our buddy Colin Allred, former guest on our short lived Sunday show out of the racing Sunday show.

[Tim Miller]

Archives have some gems in there. They do listeners they can go back.

[JVL]

Because Jasmine Crockett, she's announced that she's running for the Senate and Tejas and I just want to sit back and bask in the blistering hot takes that you each have teed up for this get cozy.

[Tim Miller]

You're going to have to put on some suntan lotion for my take because I've been, I've been ruminating on it for about 24 hours. This news, the news of Allred dropping out and running for Congress instead happened like right as I was taping with Bill yesterday. And so me and Bill talked about this a little bit. I saw some of the feedback and I just want to like, I think that a lot of times like these conversations about Democratic primary stuff gets like really bogged down particularly online into folks like views about like moderates versus progressives and you know, squad versus Blue dog, all that kind of stuff. And so I just want to really quick, before I get into Jasmine, like do a quick definition of terms for what I mean when I say a word with people because like I saw a lot of folks saying, and you see this at the presidential level and at the Senate level, like Democrats, we've tried moderate candidates. Like, we've tried that and it hasn't worked. And usually when you see people saying that they're talking about Hillary Biden even though he won the first time, Kamala Harris in the Texas setting, they're referencing Colin Allred and Beto the first time. Beto, the second time was running more as a progressive. And like.

That'S a fine definition of moderate. Like, that's not what I mean when I'm saying the word moderate. Like all of those people are just Democrats. They're just middle of the road Democrats. And so when you look at Colin Allred, for example, people described him as moderate because his kind of temperament was moderate and he seemed like he was moderate. Ish. And he like represented a district. I went and pulled up the gov track and he, in his last term in Congress, he voted a little to the left of Nancy Pelosi, who was party leader at the time. Right. So he was essentially, he was right there. Like he was just right there in the big meaty middle of the party. So you just can't tell me that somebody that voted right around the same way as Pelosi is like a moderate in any meaningful sense. Like they're a Democrat. They're just an establishment mainline Democrat. Nothing wrong with that. No problem with it. And Jasmine Crockett, I would say is like also basically that and the same ranking. She was a little bit to the left of Allred, but she wasn't like in the squad territory, you know, out there. She doesn't like take, you know, you know, taken meaningfully lefty views on things. Like people perceive her to be left of all red, I think because she's like more bombastic than he is. He's more moderate in temperament. And, and she, I think has been left of him on a couple things, maybe health care. So you can point to a couple things. But like, mostly like she's like, they're basically the same. They're both just Democrats, middle of the road, democracy Democrats. So what I am talking about, and so I'm going to try to use this word instead for people, what I'm interested in in red state races is people that are heterodox, not moderate per se. People that are taking different types of views on issues and that would mean that they running against the Democratic Party on something. Maybe it's against the Democratic to the left on healthcare or Israel or whatever. Maybe it's running against the Democrat party to the right on immigration or crime or whatever. Heterodox is what I'm going to use. It might be moderate, maybe progressive. But I'm trying to like take my. I don't. The never ending war between the Hillary people and the Bernie people is uninteresting to me. And I don't think that relevant to this, to these, a lot of these Senate races. Okay, so there's my intro.

[JVL]

Can I ask just a definition question?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, please.

[JVL]

So would you count it as heterodox if they were like in favor of single payer health care? Because that is not quite where the Democratic Party is.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, sure. Yeah. That's left heterodox.

[JVL]

Left heterodox.

[Tim Miller]

Left heterodox. Right heterodox. Right. And I think that to me, I guess where I'm going to end up here, just as a little teaser, it's like in these red state races, I think that Democrats need to run people that are heterodox. And you can run and you can tell me that it could be a left populist. That could be an interesting candidate. I think that probably wouldn't work in Texas, but we haven't really tried it. Or you have seen some success with people like Manchin, et cetera, who are more. Right heterodox and various things. Okay. The other thing that always comes up. So that was the first thing I came up with the jasmine. It's like, oh, whatever Bulwark. People just want. All right. Because he's more moderate. I think that they're pretty similar ideologically. The other thing is race and gender obviously come up and I just like in this. I also don't think that that is the thing that is relevant to the Crockett candidacy, frankly. Like I think that in certain states it's like really important to have a black candidate because the percentage of the vote. There are a lot of black people by total population in Texas, but by percentage I think it's in the teens. So this is not South Carolina or Michigan or like some state where like the big city has a lot of black folks in it. And I think that. And also we should just say Colin Allred is also black. And I think that there have been women candidates that have run this year who have been successful. Mikey, Sheryl and. And Abigail. So I just, like, I don't. Some people want to make everything about identity, I don't think that's that relevant. To me, the relevant thing about Jasmine Crockett is that she is very partisan. Like, she seems very partisan, and she's good at getting attention for her partisanship. Right. Which is, like, useful in a way. And so if I would compare to somebody, like, I would compare to, like, Eric Swalwell, who's now running for governor of California, I think she's a little more talented than him. I think, obviously, like, being a black woman, like, there's certain basic support that she'd have that he didn't. But, like, just, like, her brand is like, I'm really good at owning Trump and, like, getting Trump to yell at me and be very partisan to get attention and, like. And to me, if you look at a state like Texas, Trump won Texas by 13. So if you're going to run a person that is most noteworthy for how big of a fighter they are and how partisan they are and how loud and bombastic they can be, in doing that, you're making the bet that, okay, next year, Trump will be in such a bad. The Republicans will be in such a bad political shape that a Democrat could win a state that Trump won by, let's say, 10, just by juicing turnout, by a couple points, two or three points. That's your bet that you're making with Crockett. Like, Trump's gonna be so unpopular, Republicans are gonna be so unpopular, you can win a red state. The Trump won by 13 by just juicing turnout. Just a couple of points, which is all you really can hope for in something like this, like, with. With. With the turnout side of things. And I just, like, don't. I think that's a bad bet. Like, and I'm fine. I don't have anything against Jasmine Crockett. I like Jasmine Crockett fine. I think Jasmine Crockett running against Georgia is an interesting theory. It's an interesting proposition. A lot of black voters in Georgia, for example, Georgia is more of a close run call. Juicing turnout. Does that make sense there? I think that's an interesting pitch. Like, it. Would Jasmine Crockett be a better candidate than whatever. One of my favorite, like, Jeff Duncan. If you came to me and said my priors would say that Jeff Duncan, the former Republican lieutenant governor, would be my cup of tea. If you're telling me Jasmine's a better candidate because she could juice turnout more than he could win over Republicans. Yeah, sure, that seems interesting. In Texas, again, Trump went by 13.

You need to win over people somehow. You need to get. And then. So then the question is, okay, well, can Jasmine get attention in service of winning people over?

And that's, I think, the big question. And I think that is, this is the end of my rant. I think that Democrats who want to learn from Trump and say, hey, Trump had narrative dominance. He was so good at getting attention. He was so good at owning the other side. And that is a skill that we need in order to. I agree with that. But Trump did that and he won over new people. There was like a whole New York Times beat dedicated to all of the new people that Trump won over. And they covered them like they were animals in a zoo. And like, they went to the diners who. People that voted for Obama, and they're like, how did you vote for Trump? So Trump, like, simultaneously, if we got second time this podcast, we're handing it to Trump. Trump simultaneously dominated the narrative and did partisan shit and was very partisan, no doubt. But he used his ability to dominate the narrative to reach out to all these people who had been Democratic voters to convince them that they were getting screwed over. And so if Jasmine can do that, if she can go out in there and use her skills to then say to all these Texas Republicans, I'm not even gonna suggest what it is, I don't know, doing crazy off the wall shit like Trump did. Like get do. Like dominating the attention cycle, getting news cycle, having these proposals and ideas. You're like, whoa, is that possible? Probably not, but who cares? We're gonna do a tax on rich lefties or, you know, whatever on the Silicon Valley people and give the money back to the regular Texans. What, you know, who the hell knows what? It would be some lefty way to get attention to win over MAGA voters who feel left behind by affordability. Okay, that's a theory at least. But, like, just getting attention for attention's sake is not the. Is not the answer. And to me, that ends up looking more like one of the many failed MAGA candidates that we saw running for Senate who were just really good at being partizan and not really good at drawing people over. So that is the end of my rant. And. And may the best person win in.

[Sarah Longwell]

The Texas Senate race, Sarah, in the Texas primary. Because I think that, look, odds are that.

Jasmine Crockett will win a Democratic primary in Texas. And I'm not sure how much. Tao. Rico, I'm not I'm not sure quite how good he is yet. Could he do better than her? I don't know. Like, there will be a primary and we will see.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

He will make an argument about his ability to be electable, more electable than she is, and people might be in the mood for that. Here's, here's what bugs me about Crockett. So first of all, I just want to pick up on Tim's math because he's right. Not only did did Trump win the state by 14 points, it was 13.9. So it was almost 14 points. No, no. But it, but I mean, just to make the case even more clear that just a. So what will be two years prior, Trump won by 14 points in the state. If you go all the way back when people were getting bullish on Texas and Beto ran.

A, a strongish race in 2018. Yeah, right. That was like when he became a star, he got within three points of Ted Cruz. He lost and he lost. 2.6 is what. Is what. Cruz won by 2.6 points. So that, that was like when everybody was like, maybe this is in reach. Since that happened though, the 2020 Senate race between Cornyn and, remember MJ Hager, remember her? Cornyn won that by 9.6 points. So almost 10 points. One of their, the next best one was. Was Biden in 2020 where Trump won by five and a half points. And then Cruz versus Allred, Cruz won by eight and a half points. Okay. And people hate Ted Cruz. That is like post. That's post his Al Capuco, whatever, while everybody was freezing. And then in 2024, Trump wins by almost 14 points. Okay, so that's the electorate, the 14 point pro Trump electorate in Texas that you have to overcome. Which again, I just can't echo Tim's point enough about. This isn't a moderate versus a progressive situation. This isn't. This is a who's right for Texas, like in this race. Because here's the thing and this is why it's frustrating about Crockett.

It is very likely to be. It could be close to 2018. Conditions like you could get somebody, somebody really good could get close.

Maybe. Can they win? I don't know. I still think Texas is just like fool's gold for Democrats a little bit. But like, could somebody really good in this environment potentially get close? Maybe. But here's the other story in Texas. So I don't think, I don't think she comes anywhere close to winning. But more importantly, they just. The Supreme Court rejected the Lower court's decision that made them keep their old maps. So now they've got the GOP friendly maps. In a terrible year for Republicans, they could hold on to some of those seats. Like, if they have somebody on the ballot who runs really strong, they could in places where Trump is cratering with Hispanics, pick some, pick up some seats or hold seats that they, that Republicans think that they're going to win, they're going to have a much harder time doing that. With Jasmine Crockett, she also, by getting in as late as she did, like, she waited until right before it closed. She. And like, then she also got into some of these races where there were Dems. She, like, recruited people to go in and primary other Democrats in those races to make those races harder. Like, it's just this is not smart politics, what is happening right now. And I understand, I listen to voters in the focus groups all the time. Jasmine Crockett is somebody who comes up as like, a Democrat to watch all the time. People like Jasmine Crockett because she is a fighter. Right? And people do want fighters right now. So I hear that. And there's part of, part of me that was watching some of her stuff yesterday, being like she's on the affordability track. Like, she is talking about these things. She is talking about how she wins over Trump voters. Like, there's Mount Donnie Trump voters, there's AOC Trump voters. She's right about this. Like, those actually aren't, though, the Texas Republicans. Like, that happens in New York. That happens in. Right.

[Tim Miller]

For AOC and Mumbani, some of those people in Houston.

[JVL]

She's talking about the Atterborough.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure, sure. There's not 13% of the elect, 13% of the electorate, like, the people who've won, the Democrats. I mean, first of all, Democrats haven't won a statewide, statewide race in over 30 years in Texas. But the people who have won at the district level who have beaten Republicans are Democrats, like, like Lizzie Fletcher, who run, I believe, in like, a suburb of Houston by going and convincing Republicans in a bad year in 2018 that she was a normie, moderate Democrat and that she wasn't going to, you know, be too. And like, that's how you win in Texas. Texas. You just have to understand each of these states are different. They are different.

[Tim Miller]

I just want to say one more thing about. All right, you gave me a small math correction. I'm going to give you one small but important one. The Cruise Allred race you mentioned, where allred lost by eight and a half, was in 24 was the same year. I think you said 22, if not by.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, I'm sorry. No, no, no.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. But it's important to just say that, though, because we actually. You don't have a lot of political science experiments where you get to see what happens on the same ballot and test it out.

[JVL]

So he ran ahead of Harris Kamala by six points.

[Tim Miller]

Five and a half points. Yeah, five and a half points. So, like, people. So one way to look at the All Red race is to say, man, he lost by eight and a half points. People weren't that excited. That was worse than Beto. Another way to look at it is he ran five and a half points ahead of Harris on the same ticket against Cruz. And now you're. So you're talking. So now I'm looking at that, I'm thinking, okay, well, if that was a R + 14 year, let's say this year is an R + 6 year, all of a sudden, having a guy that runs five and a half points ahead, you're in the. But I think it's hard to win this race. I agree. But, like, now, like, that's a meaningful difference. Like, one in whatever 20 people in Texas said, you know, maybe some of them left things blank or whatever, but like, at some, like, one of 20 people in Texas either said, I'm only voting for Allred, I'm not voting for her, or I'm dropped. I'm putting this blank. Like, that's. That's meaningfully better. And until I push him down to now at being in a House primary on this bet that she. That Jasmine Crockett is going to bring out people that wouldn't have come out otherwise.

[Sarah Longwell]

Just.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, let's see it now. Let's go find those people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Also, Colin is now running against another Democrat who was also, like, a pretty good Democrat for that race.

[Tim Miller]

Like, she's a lesbian.

[Sarah Longwell]

You might be a lesbian. I have met her. But. But I just, like, now you've. Like, that's what happened as Colin got out. Now he's being shoved in. It's like it's all a net negative for Democrats, what has just happened. And I'm sorry, Tim, you're right. I might have skipped over because the other race, the 22 race, was the Abbott versus O' Rourke race. Right. 22, a really good year where Democrats overperformed and Abbott won by 10.9%. Let me just tell you, and this is. I just. I'm begging you to think about two things. One is, who do you think the Republicans wanted in this race. Republicans are popping champagne right now to have Crockett. Do you know why? Because she said things like called the governor in that state, governor hot wheels, like the oppo file on her.

Maybe you think it's funny.

But is.

[Tim Miller]

It going to help you win the Senate race of Texas?

[Sarah Longwell]

Is it going to help you win.

[Tim Miller]

The Senate race in Texas?

[Sarah Longwell]

It's not.

[JVL]

That's authentic, right? I mean, she's. If she's using insults, that code is authentic. I'd buy that.

[Tim Miller]

Sure.

[JVL]

I had a question for you guys. So we had Susie Wiles this week saying that their plan for the midterms is to put Trump on the ballot. I mean, obviously she would say that. Good idea, bad idea. I mean, let's. Let's just pretend that she means it. I don't quite know how I think.

[Tim Miller]

It was funny to watch. I don't know. It doesn't matter. They've tried this. This is all like, literally, there's somebody I saw posted like a 2018 quote from some other Trump advisor saying the same thing. In 2018.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

To me, the more interesting thing is I don't think it helps them, you know, on the margins. It helps Trump to do, to care versus not caring. I guess it just brought to me back to the age question. It was interesting. I was like, Susie was, like, talking on this podcast. I watched this clip where she's like, it's a weird. It's like this, for starters. It's like this weird bizarro world. The View that she was on, I'd never seen it before. It made me deeply uncomfortable. It's kind of like an uncanny Valley version of the View. Anyway, she's on there, and she is like, he's going to be working. He's going to be out there campaigning, just like he was in 2024. And I'm going, let's see it. I would love to see that. Let's see grandpa get out there and expend all of his energy campaigning on behalf of Ken Paxton in Texas or whoever. I'm intrigued to watch that.

[JVL]

Sarah, before you answer, this word from our sponsor.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, but don't let me forget what I was. Remind me, Susie, tell me what it is on the ballot. Okay.

[JVL]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

All right, Sarah.

[JVL]

Susie Wiles Putting Trump on the ballot.

[Sarah Longwell]

Put him on the ballot. This, this is like we have now seen this. Trump has given us. What was Tim talking about this before? Like we've been able to run this experiment multiple times. We have done many midterms with Trump on the ballot or but not on the ballot.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

And when Trump is not literally on the ballot but he's on the ballot in voters minds in terms of their negative reaction to what is happening in the country, it always works out badly for Republicans. We saw it in 18, we saw it in 22. For the love of God, put him on the ballot. Let him be on the ballot. Let's go. This sounds like Susie Wiles trying to like shine Trump up because she knows she's on the chopping block. Oh yeah, Trump, he's our secret weapon. He's so popular. We're going to get him out there. Go ahead, put him on the ballot. See what happens.

[Tim Miller]

I want to answer your question again on the on the single payer health care. Just I'm going to give it one sentence. Is it heterodoxy for single payer health care? My answer is yes. If the candidate is saying the Democrats have failed you and I'm going to get you better health care. This is like, this is what I'm really talking about. Like Trump Ran against the establishment of the Republican Party from the right and the left, you know, from the left on Iraq and entitlements, from the right on immigration and crime and everything else. Right. And so like, and that is where, you know, a lot of times you have this moderate versus liberal dispute and it's kind of like, well, it's calling a little bit more to the right on what his healthcare plan would be versus what Jasmine is like. Sure. But like they're both running just basically on conventional Democratic platforms.

[JVL]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

Like, can somebody differentiate themselves where if you ask a random voter, like, what is it about them that you know? You know, like with Bernie they would know that they're different. Or Zoran, they know that they're different. Or with Manchin or Golden, they'd know that they're different. Like, everything else is just kind of like a slice of the same thing. And that's what, that's all I'm trying to get.

[JVL]

I mean, it all makes sense to me. All right, so I just want to talk a little bit about Venezuela since we are still maybe heading towards war. Trump is now backed off the promises to show the video of the boat strike. Democrats are trying to.

Freeze Hegseth travel funds. I don't know how that works. You can just like a parent's taking away the keys to somebody's car.

Does anybody care? I feel like we're already over the war crimes and they though the war crimes are gone and we've, we've all moved on. Is that, Is that just me being morose?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[JVL]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is a story that is, that is alive. The Republicans actually seem uncomfortable with it. You get a bunch of generals that this story, I don't know, we was, maybe it was the very end of last week week with a bunch of people, you know, negging Hegseth, you know, off the record, but like quoted, just not named. No, I think this is bad for Hegseth and the fact that Trump said, yeah, we'll show you the video and is now like, man, we won't show you the video. Seems like maybe the people who've seen that video think it looks pretty bad for Hegseth and the best he can do in response is have a pull up battle with Sha Duffy at an airport. Like, no, I think Heth's on the ropes. I think people care. This is the first thing I've seen Republicans push back on at all.

No, we should take the win on this.

[Tim Miller]

I agree with Sarah. I mean, like, what do you mean? How do you measure care or Whatever.

[JVL]

But, I mean, I'm just thinking about. I wrote about it, and my newsletter didn't perform very well. So I just take.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know that we can judge everything based on.

[JVL]

It's really all about me, Tim.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I don't know that we can judge political efficacy in a complicated nation with lots of different constituencies based on.

[JVL]

Or maybe we can.

Or maybe we can.

[Tim Miller]

Data point. It's a data point, for sure.

Yeah. I don't know. I think it's a total shit show and that. And. And I think that it is contributing to a sense that Trump is out of touch. Like, my. My barometer right now and everything. I apologize to people that are sick of hearing me talking about it. Is the Tim Dillon podcast, because a comedy podcast. And he's maga, but he's a. He's like a America first, and he's just like, what are we doing? Like, why are we bombing the boats in Venezuela? Like, what is the point? I thought we were. I thought the point was helping Americans. I thought that was the America first. But we're get. We're. We have a new ballroom, and we're friends with the AI guys. And so I just think it contributes to right now what his biggest political vulnerability is. People think he's like, it's a shit show, and he doesn't. He cares about the wrong stuff.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like the ballroom.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Which he's fired the architect on.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

I mean, again, is kind of amazing that they tore down the east wing of the White House before clearly even locking in a final plan.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is why Trump needs to be so on top of it. This is why he needs to have so much input. You know, important decisions must be made.

[JVL]

Yeah, that's. It's really great.

If we want to believe that things are going well.

Lena Haba has stepped down from the job she wasn't legally entitled to have in the first place. Can you resign a job that you didn't have?

Unclear. This sounds like a George Costanza question.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I was going to say Costanza did.

[JVL]

Yeah. Grand jury has declined to re indict Tish James.

These are good things.

[Sarah Longwell]

They're taking a lot of Ls, guys. They're taking a lot of Ls, and I think that we should be happy about that. I do think whenever Trump is working on the ballroom, that's probably good. Like, it's like, put them over there in the corner with the thing. So we can't, you know, raise an armed militia against the United States. Like, I. I don't know, I'd rather him be thinking about the ballroom than how they're going to mess with the 2026 elections. Like, you know, this is which by the way, at some point I do I get a. I want to rant on federalism for the win. Because the whole, all the fears about 2026, which I think, you know, it's worth always not taking lightly what Trump might do to keep from Democrats from having oversight over him. But the fact is it is very hard in our big federalist system for Trump to really do something on his own. And like right now he can't even get the Indiana guys to come through with the mid cycle redistricting to give him extra seats. He might get there.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I think Indiana's gonna happen. So I hate to rain on your parade on Indiana. It seems like that's gonna happen. But still, I agree with you. I think if you really want a low click through rate newsletter, you should consider federalism. Colon for the win though, I think then we'll see. Then we'll see, you know what the, what the depths of click through rates could look like.

[JVL]

Could we actually win before we try to give credit for why we won?

[Tim Miller]

Sure.

[JVL]

I'm just here jvl just feeling a little, you know.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, let me put this way. Dampering jvl, I want you to, I want to put you in, I want to put you in character. Okay. Okay. I'm going to do the JVL right now, an hour into the podcast, give you an assignment.

I want you to get your Quida's voice out and I want you to think about Christmas right now and you got to tell your family members, you got a couple family members that went off to State University, went off to college and they got woke and you wanted to convince them what has been going well lately for the White House and you want to sell them on what is happening that would make them feel good about the administration. What's your pitch?

[JVL]

We got all them illegals out of Chicago now they look at them that you can't go down to Home Depot. You don't. None of them brown people around there no more.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

I mean, isn't that the big win?

[Tim Miller]

That's the pitch. Yeah, that's. I mean, sure, I guess. Yeah. The border is secure and there are fewer legal illegals outside the Home Depot.

[JVL]

This is what J.D. vance said during the BBB debate. Right. Vance was like, look, none of this stuff matters. All that matters is that we get the however much Money it was $150 billion or whatever it was for DHS, because once we have that, we're going to have an entirely new federal police force to do exactly what we want to make the country into what we want it to be.

[Tim Miller]

I just think that, like, that's a 30% pitch. It's not that there are no people in the country that care only about illegal immigration. There's obviously a bunch Trump took over in one of the two major parties based on that issue alone. But, like, I, I don't, that doesn't sound, that's not that compelling of a pitch, I don't think, to people that are actually experiencing struggles in their lives, to people that have other, that people part of the coalition that cared about other stuff more than immigration.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'll tell you, I'll tell you what the, the, the W is, is that Trump is going to take an L from the Supreme Court on the tariffs, and they're going to save his ass for himself, and things are immediately going to get cheaper and businesses are going to be happier.

[JVL]

We won the tariffs.

[Tim Miller]

Don't you think they're going to just.

[JVL]

Supreme Court voted for US 9 to 0.

[Tim Miller]

Don't you think that they're just going to do what he did on, like, legal filings, which is they'll just do illegal tariffs based on some other cockamamie precedent, and then that'll have to go back up through the courts again. I think that I, I don't know if they're going to save them as much as we think.

[Sarah Longwell]

Think that's a, I, that's an interesting take and, and I hope that's what happens. But I, I'm, I'm worried that what happens is that Trump hears, like, the tariffs are going to cost us the midterms. You can do this again once the elections are over. Rail against the Supreme Court for taking this away, but, like, let costs go down for people.

[JVL]

And we could also get a Supreme Court vacancy before the midterms or two. Right. And they could use that to motivate turnout. I mean, I could, I could see it happening. All right, Sarah, one last word from our sponsor, our friends at Quince.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

I don't believe this story. We talk about clothes. It's like, yo, complimenting the tools you have in your tool shed.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yo, that, that hoodie looks good.

[JVL]

That's a great vest. Is that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Ll be. That's right. Exactly.

[JVL]

No, it's quints. Yeah, quints.

[Tim Miller]

All right.

[JVL]

So, I mean, I'm gonna swerve a little bit here at the end. Since we were talking about Supreme Court. We are gonna get soon our Supreme Court decision on. We'll get it on tariffs and we will also get it on.

The unitary executive and how many people Trump can fire and replace.

Within the federal government.

The people who watch the Supreme Court seem to think that Trump is likely to be saved on the tariffs thing, which will be a win for him, even though it'll technically be a loss, and that he will be allowed to fire basically anybody he wants, including, like, Fed governors.

So how's that going to work for America? Long term? I don't even mean the short term. I don't even mean, like, you know, the next year. But, like, if the idea is that every single job in the federal government is now a political appointee and there is no guarantee of continuity or institutional knowledge. There is no such thing as nonpartisan.

The FBI, hhs, the Feder, the Federal Reserve itself, the central bank of the United States. These are all political jobs now.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I think maybe besides the Fed, all the rest of that is probably permanently changed. And I don't even know that's kind.

[JVL]

Of probably the Vaccine Safety Board.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Yeah. Probably permanently political. And I don't even know if it'll be worth anybody's capital to try to reverse it. One thing that strikes me, I had Mark Hertling was on the Daily Pod on Tuesday and he's been so great. Thank God.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. He's coming on focus group this weekend.

[Tim Miller]

I know we're working. Mark Hertling. All right. General Boot camp Bulwark Boot camp content boot camp. Get comfortable in that chair. We were talking about the change from having civilian leadership of Dodge to having military leadership. Right. And so in Trump 1.0, you get Madison there and basically like some people are upset and there's little. There's a news story about it for a couple days, but it's people are just like, actually we're kind of happy that Mattis is in there, so let's just leave him in there. And then what Biden do? Biden put Lloyd Austin it. And so Biden didn't revert to the pre Trump norm. It was a small thing. You know, it's not like anything to get all hugely upset about or whatever. But it was like Trump subverted the norm and Biden continued with that one example. And to me, I just think that there are going to be a lot of things like that, unfortunately, and this is one of them. And I think that's just the consequence of electing this fucking guy twice.

[JVL]

Unless the Supreme Court saves us and steps in and says that Republicans can do political appointments, but when Democrats do it. No, that's, see, that's, that is this really deeply held. If you go back to the original text, it says right there that a Democrat may not fire.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

Thomas? Sarah, is this me with like just clutching my, my, my norms?

[Sarah Longwell]

No. I mean ideally we would continue to have an independent FTC and these independent agencies who have been a part of the checks and balances system now for like 80 years. Right. Like there's a lot of precedent that is being overturned by the Supreme Court that fundamentally changes a lot of things. I do think this is not, it is a bad thing that executive power now is been increased under Trump. It's like. And to me, this one is not even as bad. It's pretty bad. But like when they did the hate. You can't hold a president accountable for things they do. Whatever that was what something versus the United States. That Supreme Court case that gave Trump all this power, he can go assassinate someone. And if it's under. You know, that was the real thing when they did that. They made the executive more powerful than this country has ever seen. This Supreme Court has been undermining checks and balances the whole time. And I don't know that there is going back from this. And it is going to create, I think, you know, every election now the blood sport of it. Like, if you think it's been bad, it is going to increase now because you can't. It's not like, oh, well, if one side gets in the other side. But like we have checks and balances, we have Congress and you know, there's. That stuff is all. It is being undermined. And I'm not sure you put the toothpaste back in that tube.

[JVL]

Time for temperature check. Sarah, where are you on expansion of the Supreme Court? Are we there yet?

[Sarah Longwell]

I liked George's solution.

Of. It's not.

[Tim Miller]

George Conway.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Former future congressman.

[Sarah Longwell]

Future. Future. Future congressman. Democratic congressman for New York, George Conway, which was not. It's not court packing. It is like this rotating. And again, this is like, not me. I'm not an expert in Supreme Court stuff. I do think we should be very careful about things where we're just like, oh, we don't like the Supreme Court as it is. Let's just, you know, pack it up, expand the number of seats. But he was talking about there where you sort of have a rotating group of retired so that everybody gets a nominee because you can't do. You can't do as much as I would like, term limits as a Supreme Court solution.

[JVL]

Can't do it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Constitutionally impossible. So anyway, but, but no, I'm still not for court packing. You'll never get me on court pack. That just ends up. It's a race to the bottom. It's just a tit for tat. It will ever be ever expansive.

[JVL]

Well, but the problem is if you don't tit for tat, then you get the same thing.

[Tim Miller]

If it's just.

[JVL]

If it just did you get the same thing? Right. This is the, the, the Gavin Newsom of it.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

So the Gavin Newsom, like, oh, so Texas is going to read it. We're going to redistrict as well and try to set. To prevent people from doing this again in the future. And, you know, one way to go back to our norms would be to have a expanded Supreme Court revisit the decision in Trump versus the United States and the question of whether or not like a president can be fully legally immune.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure. So that's fine. As long as then you're prepared for when a Republican gets elected next time for them to just add more to get.

[JVL]

I mean if they don't. Right, here's the. Then we're in the same position we're in already. Right.

So if that were to happen.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know about that. You could, you know. No, because you could end the structure of the Supreme Court going forward forever.

[JVL]

It's a Supreme Court has been.

[Sarah Longwell]

It is not something to undertake lightly.

[JVL]

Question has this Supreme Court been helping or hurting? Because as you just said, like the.

[Sarah Longwell]

Supreme Court is like elections. Elections have enormous consequences. Elections have enormous consequences.

[JVL]

Other things that have enormous consequences. Refusing votes on nominees.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, I agree with that.

[JVL]

Supreme Court nominees. So I'm just saying like yes, it could have unintended consequences, but also it's not like things are going good. Just saying. Tim, where are you? Are you with me on expansion?

Eventually you both will be.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I'm trying to care about the things I care about. The Supreme Court thing is tough. It's a pickle. And I don't know that I have a hard in line, hard position on this. I mean look, before all this Pete had a lot of interesting ideas for reforming the Supreme Court. Weck and his campaign that. I'm open to it. I'm open to it. But you know. Okay.

[JVL]

All right, 30 seconds. Trump is giving a bailout to farmers.

Do we think those Trump voting farmers who are now welfare queens are embarrassed and ashamed that they're out there looking for a handout or do you think that they, they. I'm sorry, I'm just trying to trigger you, Sarah. I'm intentionally trying to trigger you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well you're not going to do it because I have a totally different take on this.

[JVL]

I want to hear it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Which is okay, quick Senate map. Just quick as we start to move into Senate primaries and we start to think about where do we really need to win?

[Tim Miller]

Iowa.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. Yeah. Iowa met. Iowa's the stretch.

[Tim Miller]

More welfare queens, more welfare for farmers. Democrats should flank him on the left. You don't even have to grow anything and we'll pay you.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's not what I mean. Okay, they gotta hold Georgia and Michigan. They've must win Maine, North Carolina and Ohio and then they get have to free. They need one more reach state and the fact is the reason that Trump is doing this is because things are looking awful for Republicans in Iowa. They have, they have Rob sand. Is the Democrat running for governor there against. There's not really a Republican yet, but. Ashley. Hinson. Is the Republican. Then there's like the big Dem field, whatever. Like Dems you. How well Democrats are going to do in the 2026 midterms is going to. We're going to see it in Iowa. Like, if, if they can take Iowa or pick up some of these seats in Iowa, that's going to be a big get. And so. But this is why Trump's trying to bail out the farmers, because he knows they're all the Republicans are underwater there.

[JVL]

Sarah, does it work? Like do farm?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think so.

[JVL]

Farmers who get. I don't think say yes. See, this is why we voted him for him, because he took care of us.

[Tim Miller]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, yeah.

I genuinely am not sure. It might keep some.

[JVL]

It's met people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right, but it might. Well, it might, but it might help some of the direct farmers for like a minute. There's a whole economy based on it there. It's not just the farmers.

[Tim Miller]

That all makes sense to me. Like the sugar farmers, okay? Like, they get billions, hundreds of millions in bailouts, money from the government. Now the people, the poor people who want to go to the store with their EBT card to buy $8 worth of food and one of the items has sugar in it. We can't have that. We can't have that. We can't have the welfare people getting eating Snickers along with their hamburger. Okay? We can't have.

[JVL]

Well, if they want a Snickers bar, they should work hard and pull themselves up by their bootstraps to be able to afford it.

[Tim Miller]

Timothy, Sugar farmers, though, no shortage of money. We have one of those money cannons like in a sports game. We're just blowing at the sugar farm.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, we're making all this money from the tariffs that we can now give back to the farmers.

[JVL]

This is what the tariffs are for, Sarah. Yeah, it all makes sense.

[Sarah Longwell]

Totally.

[JVL]

It's all coming together. Search from Brent. You'll reach around. Okay, guys, good show. Long show. We'll be back next week and Sarah and I will be here on Friday. I think we're going to be here on Friday. Are you. Are you leaving me to do something else? Haven't looked at my calendar.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm here.

[JVL]

I got a lot for us to talk about on Friday.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can't wait.

[JVL]

A lot.

[Sarah Longwell]

Did a banger last week.

[JVL]

Good luck, America.

[Tim Miller]

This is Matt Rogers from Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang. This is Bowen Yang from Las Culturistas.

[JVL]

With Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang.

[Tim Miller]

Hey, Bowen. It's gift season. Ugh. Stressing me out.

[JVL]

Why are the people I love so hard to shop for?

[Tim Miller]

Probably because they only make boring gift guides that are totally uninspired. Except for the guide we made in.

[JVL]

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[Tim Miller]

It's giving gifts with categories like Best Gifts for the mom whose idea of a sensible walking shoe is a stiletto, or Best Gifts for Me that were.

[JVL]

So thoughtful I really shouldn't have.

[Tim Miller]

Check out the guide on marshalls.com and gift the good stuff at Marshalls. This time of year, most of us.

[Sarah Longwell]

Are checking off our holiday gift lists.

[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[JVL]

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