Podcast Summary: "Venezuela Exposes the Lie of America First"

Podcast: The Next Level, The Bulwark
Date: January 7, 2026
Episode: 1045
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Episode Overview

The hosts dive into President Trump's dramatic military operation in Venezuela, which saw the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his replacement with a Trump-favored leader. This pivotal event exposes rifts within the Republican party between "America First" and "Trump First" factions, prompting the hosts to examine the philosophical, political, and practical implications of such foreign policy. The trio also draws parallels to other geopolitical flashpoints, critiques the decline of U.S. global leadership, and reflect on the evolving nature of neoconservatism and American exceptionalism. The episode is marked by signature Bulwark banter, detailed breakdowns, and spirited debate.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Venezuela Move: What Happened?

• The U.S., under President Trump, orchestrated a law enforcement operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, transporting them to New York for criminal charges and installing Delcy Rodríguez as the new de facto leader.
• Trump rejected the more internationally respected Machado (who was out of the country collecting a Nobel Prize) as leader, allegedly believing she didn’t have sufficient "respect" or support. (04:00)
• JVL jokes about conspiracy theories, likening Delcy Rodríguez to "Cersei Lannister" who orchestrated the coup from the shadows.
• Sarah: Raises immediate and serious worries about the "rules-based international order" and what it means when the U.S. unilaterally removes foreign leaders. (04:09)

2. America First vs. Trump First: A Conservative Split

• Sarah explains a new split within the GOP: "America First" (true anti-interventionists) vs. "Trump First" (loyal to whatever Trump wants).
  • America Firsters (e.g., Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, Marjorie Taylor Greene) generally oppose intervention but are inconsistent, sometimes aligning with isolationists, sometimes with resource extraction hawks.
  • Trump Firsters (e.g., Benny Johnson, Jack Posobiec, Fox News, Laura Loomer) back Trump regardless, often aligning with MAGA establishment.
  • “For them it is a question of: do people hold Trump to his America First promises, no foreign wars, versus those who want to dominate the Western Hemisphere?” – Sarah (09:52)
• Tim notes that most MAGA voters don’t have firm opinions on foreign policy; it’s only a true schism if the conflict worsens.
  • "I just don’t know how much people care about this." – Tim (12:00)
• The group questions the actual sincerity of “no more wars” rhetoric within MAGA, suspecting it's less about human costs and more about American impunity and still liking violence from a distance. (14:35)
  • “If it’s just blowing shit up from a distance and killing other people, I don’t know that they’re opposed to that.” – JVL (15:01)
  • “Most of the right-wing folks claim to be non-interventionists were actually only opposed to the U.S. losing, but they’re very much on board for the idea of dominance of other people through violence if they think they can pull it off.” – Tim quoting Ryan Graham (15:57)

3. The Shrinking Ambition of U.S. Foreign Policy

• The episode marks the ironic shift from America as global overseer to an “aspirant regional bully.”
  • Sarah: “We have downgraded ourselves to a foreign policy that says, ‘No, we’re just going to dominate the Western hemisphere.’ … That is a downgrade for America.” (16:55)
  • JVL: “Once upon a time we were like, ‘Hey, are we sure we can still impose our will in the South China Sea?’ And now we’re like, ‘We gotta make sure we get Cuba.’” (17:07)
• Tim ridicules the supposed doctrines behind the action: “This is just fucking stupid… these guys can’t execute whatever’s in Stephen Miller’s deranged brain.” (18:43)

4. Neoconservatism, Democracy Promotion, and American “Values”

• Sarah laments how "Republican" and "conservative" have lost concrete meaning: “What they mean is Trump, they’re Trump and Trump-adjacent,” not about principles. (21:12)
• Neoconservatism, in the hosts’ view, meant promoting democracy and self-determination, not mere resource plundering.
  • “That is not neoconservatism, guys… every time we have one of these fights…” – Sarah (24:44)
• Tim distinguishes between actual democracy promotion and the current “might makes right” approach.

5. Legality & Global Reaction: America vs. Russia?

• The hosts debate whether the U.S. operation against Maduro is legally or morally distinct from Russia’s attempted snatch of Zelensky.
  • Tim (on similarities): “The notion that they could get rid of Zelensky and replace them with a leader that was more pliable to Russia is literally what we just did.” (26:46-27:27)
  • Sarah: “Russia invaded a democracy. We invaded a dictator oppressing his people.” (27:31)
• The question of international legality is complex; what America did violated UN charters but was backed by U.S. executive precedent.

6. Greenland Next? What If Trump Really Means It?

• The group ponders Trump’s sustained talk about “invading” Greenland as a sign he might actually try it.
  • “I think it’s possible… I think he’s going to try to do it. Am I insane?” – Tim (35:08)
  • JVL puts odds at “one in ten” but argues it would force the free world to finally recognize America’s shift into “masked-off” rogue status. (37:27-38:18)

7. Loss of American Moral Authority

• Sarah: “I miss being enough of a moral authority that the United States has enough goodwill at its back… that people trust it to be the leading light of the world order.” (40:31)
• The consensus is that Trump is rapidly squandering this legacy; America is viewed less and less as a reliable or benevolent actor.

8. Hill Politics and the Dwindling GOP House Majority

(Segment starts after the Venezuela/foreign policy discussion)

• Deaths and absences narrow the House GOP majority—a context that could make every vote, and every intra-party squabble, pivotal in the months ahead. (44:23–46:12)
• The Democrats’ leverage is increased, with spending bills skewing in their favor.

9. Dan Bongino Returns & Right-Wing Media Feuds

• Dan Bongino’s exit from government is discussed with relish, noting his angry, expletive-laden tweets and the infighting among MAGA personalities like Matt Gaetz and Candace Owens. (49:54–52:27)

10. Neoconservatism, Iraq, and the Post-World War II American Order

(Deep dive, 59:30–67:13)

• JVL defends neoconservatism (“A lot more good than bad in the long sweep”), sparking debate with Tim, who insists the use of military force for nation-building mostly failed.
  • “The effort to use the military to try to turn autocracies into democracies, like, was a failure across several different… countries.” – Tim (61:14)
• Sarah synthesizes, agreeing that American primacy did much good in the 20th century, but the means and ends have become dangerously confused.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sarah (on MAGA values):
  "People just say that things are Republican or conservative, and what they mean is they’re Trump, they’re Trump and Trump-adjacent." (21:12)
• Tim (on interventionism):
  "Most of the right-wing folks claim to be non-interventionists were actually only opposed to the US losing, but they’re very much on board for the idea of dominance of other people through violence if they think they can pull it off." (15:57)
• JVL (on American “downgrade”):
  "Once upon a time we were like, ‘Hey, are we sure we can still impose our will in the South China Sea?’ And now we’re like, ‘We gotta make sure we get Cuba.’" (17:07)
• Sarah (on American example):
  “I miss being enough of a moral authority that the United States… people trust it to be the leading light of the world order.” (40:31)
• Tim (dismissing doctrine):
  “This is just fucking stupid… What we’re doing is just stupid.” (18:43)
• JVL (on global realpolitik):
  “It is important that the free world figure out what time it is and figure out what America is. The free world is going to need a bunch of nuclear proliferation pretty fast.” (38:18)

Key Timestamps

• 01:13 – JVL opens: "Everything is terrible again."
• 04:00 – Venezuela recap and new power dynamics
• 09:52 – The “America First” vs. “Trump First” GOP rift
• 14:35 – Discussion on the sincerity of MAGA anti-war sentiment
• 16:55–17:07 – The “downgrade” from global power to regional bully
• 18:43 – Tim eviscerates the stupidity of Venezuela policy
• 26:46–27:45 – Parallels between US action in Venezuela and Russian tactics
• 35:08–38:18 – Serious worry Trump might actually try to “take” Greenland, and what that would mean
• 40:31 – Mourning the loss of U.S. moral leadership
• 44:23–46:12 – The precarious GOP majority in Congress
• 49:54–53:32 – Bongino, MAGA media feuds, and the Candace Owens split
• 59:30–67:13 – The Iraq War, legacy of neoconservatism, and America’s post-WWII project

Tone & Style

The hosts combine gravitas and incisive critique with wit, exasperation, and gallows humor. They urgently dissect the real-world risks of American political drift, lament the loss of old certainties, and offer both historical perspective and frank, sometimes sarcastic banter.

Conclusion

This episode draws a sharp line between the old ideals of American foreign policy and its chaotic present. The Venezuela episode is seen not as strategic doctrine but as the consequence of unaccountable, personalized rule. The hosts warn that America is rapidly losing its global influence and moral standing, even as Republicans fracture over what "America First" truly means. Listeners are left with the chilling prospect of a world order where America is seen as unpredictable—no longer exceptional, but just another bully on the block.