The Next Level – Episode 1047: "JD Vance Picked the Ugliest Fight on Purpose"

Date: January 14, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Episode Overview

This week on The Next Level, Sarah, Tim, and JVL dissect an especially dark stretch in American politics. The episode centers on the nation's chilling tolerance for authoritarian overreach—from the Minneapolis ICE shooting and subsequent crackdown, to JD Vance’s Machiavellian political maneuvering. The trio also tackle the global specter of Trumpism, challenges to democratic norms at home and abroad, and the ongoing infighting among Democrats. With their trademark candor and wit, the hosts move through bleak news, flashes of resistance (hello, Jerome Powell), and moments of comic relief.

Main Discussion Themes & Key Segments

1. The Post-Holiday Political Mood (01:26–05:59)

• JVL reflects on recent hopes of “the end of Trumpism,” observing that early 2026 has instead brought renewed darkness.
• Sarah pushes back, noting:
  “All the things that were true in December about Trump's political problems remain true. ...We live in a complex world.” (02:23)
• Tim notes the “bleak” state of the country, especially after the Minneapolis developments.

2. Authoritarian Crackdown in Minneapolis – ICE Violence & Fallout (05:59–19:06)

• They examine the ICE shooting of Renee Goode, a lesbian woman, and the brutal, public dehumanization of her and her partner.
• Sarah:
  “They hate her and they hate her girlfriend... The language used about her is just despicable.” (06:40)
• Tim breaks down the administration's narrative:
  “The way in which this administration actively works to other her and its mouthpieces... The goal is to say she's not really just a regular American.” (07:39)
• Discussion turns to the escalation:
  • Outnumbering local police: “600 police officers in Minneapolis... against 2400 ICE agents now. ...Outnumbered six to one. That is an invasion.” (11:14–11:22)
  • JVL shares an interview with Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who bluntly admits police are powerless:
    “We're outmanned and outgunned... it’d be like the OK Corral, and they'd kill us because there are so many of them.” (13:13)
  • Sarah: “People are being chilled... ICE is going into daycares, into the Targets. ...These are just regular neighborhoods.” (15:22)
• Live update: Six federal prosecutors resign in protest rather than investigate the victim’s widow.
  “So, yeah, they're doing an investigation. Just not of the murderer. …It's just fucking sick what these people are doing.” (12:32)

3. “Accelerationism” and the Limits of Response (15:08–19:06)

• Should the governor activate the National Guard to protect citizens?
  • The team discusses the risk of escalation and the potential for constitutional crisis: “You’re talking about flooding a space with American soldiers... in opposition to one another...” (16:49)
• Tim cautions: “Is it crazy to be thinking about protecting people? No. ...You’re in this situation...” (17:39)

4. JD Vance—Embracing the Ugly Fight (21:19–27:50)

• The trio pivots to Senator JD Vance’s role as Trump’s attack dog.
• Tim:
  “He has no sense of morality... I am full-on will take what this guy is doing, and I'll take 40 years off of it.” (22:01)
• Sarah details Vance’s PR offensive after the Minneapolis shooting:
  "JD was like, yeah, put me in, coach. I want to go out there and be the face of the effort to defame this woman." (23:36)
• JVL points out that by going this far, Vance blocks any challenge from the right: “He sees anything... If there's nobody who can get to his right on anything...I don't think there's any room for anybody to run to his right.” (24:21)
• The long game: Can Vance be outflanked by a true economic nationalist like Bannon or Hawley if Trump’s project collapses? Sarah hedges, but notes possible vulnerabilities.

5. The Fed Showdown: Jerome Powell Pushes Back (28:05–36:54)

• JVL describes Powell’s extraordinary statement opposing Trump’s hostile moves:
  "He released a video... he was just like, this is gangsterism. This guy is doing this because he's trying to take over the Fed." (28:46)
• Sarah lauds Powell’s communications strategy:
  “This is how it's done in the big kid world… he advocated for himself… a masterclass in how things should be done.” (29:50)
• The hosts debate whether Powell’s stand really threatens the market or signals deeper instability under Trump.
• Sarah: "The market's basically fake. ...At some point, reality will be forced upon the markets." (35:33)

6. Foreign Adventures & The Specter of Regime Change (36:54–48:09)

• Tim and JVL joke (darkly) about “regime change in Iran,” noting irony in Trump citing IRGC crackdowns while ICE brutalizes US protesters.
• On Greenland: Sarah recounts Susan Glasser’s estimation that Trump invading Greenland is more likely than they’d thought:
  “Trump said he has a psychological need for Greenland...” (43:01)
• JVL breaks down why buying Greenland is a non-starter (“You can't price it... it would have to be all cash...”), but they worry more about the precedent of a hostile US land-seizure, and what it would mean for NATO and America’s global standing.

7. Democratic Infighting & Social Media Attacks – The Bowen Yang/Jasmine Crockett Flap (62:09–69:45)

• The hosts address the fallout after Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers questioned Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s viability as a Texas Senate candidate.
• Sarah:
  “The response these guys got is insane. …The left is never going to win if they behave like this… Reducing everybody to their identity and doing these nasty online attacks on people within the left is... truly insane.” (63:00, 64:13)
• Strategic point: Progressives waste resources on unwinnable races, and demonizing those who point this out “shows you the part of the Democratic coalition less interested in winning and more interested in... changing the behavior of people in their sphere.” (67:46)
• Tim: “Congrats on all your social media points. It gets you nothing in checking Trump.” (68:52)

8. Senate Races, Fantasy Politics & Real Opportunities (55:43–61:59)

• Mary Peltola (D-AK) running for Senate: Her “fish, family, freedom” campaign is both a local play and a way to expand the Democratic map.
  • Sarah: “For the first time with Mary Peltola in Alaska, you now have a Senate map that is plausible that Democrats could win... it’s a legit recruitment. It expands the map.” (57:32)
  • Discussion of Alaska’s unique politics, the native vote, and ranked-choice voting helping Democrats compete.
• JVL floats the Lisa Murkowski-will-caucus-with-Dems scenario if the map flips, sparking speculation.

9. WASP Humor and Bulwark Office Banter (71:05–74:44)

• The crew lampoons Tucker Carlson’s complaints about “anti-WASP” bias, poking fun at old Weekly Standard days and office dynamics.
• Sarah: “I just wanted to say, clearly I have an eye out for this at the Bulwark Wall. Wasps are welcome.” (74:16)
• JVL on Bill Kristol: “Bill's low key was something of a young math prodigy, too. ...He does math, too.” (74:21)

Notable Quotes

• Tim: “I have been pretty despondent... this is as Trump at his most authoritarian… It is the most scared that I've been in terms of we are starting to move into the place where Trump... does feel cornered and is behaving like it.” (04:42)
• Sarah: “They're doing an investigation. Just not of the murderer. …It's just fucking sick what these people are doing.” (12:32)
• JVL on Vance: “I think that JD is absolutely down for whatever. ...he's full white replacement. All of it.” (21:47)
• Sarah on focus groups: “The one thing Everybody knows about J.D. Vance is the cat ladies. It's like he. Yeah. His hostility to women. And... women in particular don't warm to him. That childless cat ladies thing just... stuck.” (25:24)
• Sarah on social media left: “Smearing these people and like, these... personal attacks intra-coalition is just... fucking homophobic about it. Like, it's just. Don't. Stop, okay? And focus... on people that actually fucking deserve it.” (69:38)

Timestamps to Key Segments

• Post-Holiday Political Mood & Bleak Outlook: 01:26–05:59
• Minneapolis/ICE Authoritarian Crackdown: 05:59–19:06
• JD Vance—Ugliest Fight On Purpose: 21:19–27:50
• Jerome Powell & The Fed Clash: 28:05–36:54
• Foreign Adventurism/Greenland/Iran: 36:54–48:09
• Democrats' Strategy & Social Media Clashes: 62:09–69:45
• Senate Map Expansion & Alaska Focus: 55:43–61:59
• Bulwark Banter & WASP Jokes: 71:05–74:44

Tone & Takeaways

The episode is unsparingly bleak, but never humorless. The hosts’ sharp banter and gallows humor ("Congrats on all your social media points. It gets you nothing in checking Trump." (68:52)) break up the seriousness as they highlight the dangers of normalization, the failures of institutional constraint, and the importance of political strategy rooted in reality. Listeners come away with a clear sense of alarm, a dose of hope from rare acts of institutional resistance, and reminders that “fantasy politics” may offer fleeting comfort but reality bites back.

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