1048: The New Rule is "Comply or Die" | Secret Podcast

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Next Level

Episode: 1048: The New Rule is "Comply or Die" | Secret Podcast
Date: January 17, 2026
Host: The Bulwark (Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last)

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode tackles recent events in Minneapolis involving police use of deadly force, the troubling "comply or die" mentality emerging in parts of American political rhetoric, and the sharp double standards present in discussions about law enforcement and protest. The hosts, featuring Sarah Longwell and Jonathan V. Last (JVL), unpack controversial videos, public and partisan responses, and fresh polling data—connecting these issues to broader questions about civil liberties, hypocrisy, and the 2024 political landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Minneapolis Police Shooting and "Comply or Die" Rhetoric

• Video Analysis and Public Reaction

  • JVL describes a New York Times video breakdown showing that the police officer was not in danger during the Minneapolis incident:

    "He did not get hit... His feet slip back. He is not knocked back at all." (03:13)

  • Critiques the officer’s firearms discipline, mocking the idea of recording with a cell phone while shooting:

    “Is that...a safe and proper way to discharge your weapon?” (03:13)

• Human Response and Moral Rorschach Test

  • Charlie Sykes compares the divisiveness to viral perception tests:

    “It’s like a Rorschach test in how willing are you to take human life with, like, a certain set of information.” (06:31)

  • Notes that many Americans reacted viscerally, but some Trump voters showed nuance in focus groups—acknowledging complexity, yet some defended the action for partisan reasons.

• Double Standards and Hypocrisy

  • JVL explores how Americans respond differently to use of force depending on the parties and circumstances involved, e.g., January 6th:

    "You could tell that the cops on January 6th really didn’t want to take human life..." (06:53)

  • Sarah Longwell suggests a focus group experiment:

    “Will you show them video of Iranian police firing on civilians in Iran and ask them what they think about it...and then say, well the Iranian police did tell them to leave...So doesn’t that, like, can’t he use deadly force there and just listen, just do it?” (09:47)

2. The “Comply or Die” Mentality in Right-Wing Politics

• Political Slogans and Logic

  • Sarah brings up Texas Rep. Troy Nels’ assertion:

    “If you comply, you will not die.” (12:19)

  • JVL reverses it:

    “What they’re saying to you is comply or die.” (12:19)

  • Sarah points out the irony juxtaposed with “Don’t Tread on Me”/“Come and Take It” culture:

    “It is weird that the consequences for failing to comply with an act of Congress...are nothing but the failure to comply with the instructions of a rent a cop...is the death penalty. What the fuck? It’s crazy, right?” (12:45)

• Double Standards in Application

  • The hosts highlight situational civil libertarianism among Republicans, referencing Eagle Pass and the Bundy standoff, noting restraint when conservatives are the ones in non-compliance:

    “...when it’s a Republican rancher with a bunch of guns...Republicans go to, like, total sympathy for this guy. Why?” (17:23)

  • JVL emphasizes the hypocrisy:

    “...it’s MAGA versus non-MAGA. Exactly.” (19:06)

3. Polling on Trump, Immigration, and ICE

• National Mood on Trump’s Policies

  • JVL presents new NPR/Marist and CNN polls:
    • 57% think Trump has weakened the US’s international standing (20:00)
    • ~70% oppose military adventurism like interventions in Greenland (20:00)
    • 56% oppose US military action in Venezuela (21:42)
    • Only 36-38% approve of Trump's economic performance, with 56-57% disapproving (21:42)
    • 58% say Trump’s first year was a “failure” (23:59)
  • Notable JVL line on Trump’s approval:

    “What’s my Bush line, guys? It’s 32%. So this is...He’s 38% approve...with 56% disapproving.” (21:42)

• Republican Base Opinions

  • Sarah notes:
    • Around 50-53% of Republicans “strongly approve” of ICE's actions in one recent poll, but support for things like a Greenland invasion is notably low even within the GOP (21:12–21:31)

• Political Implications

  • JVL points to Cook Political Report moving 18 Congressional races in the Democrats’ direction, and polling showing Americans broadly disapprove of Trump’s immigration policies:

    “Does that not make you feel good?” (25:15)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It’s like a Rorschach test in how willing are you to take human life with, like, a certain set of information."
  — Charlie Sykes (06:31)

• "If you comply, you will not die." / "Comply or die."
  — Rep. Troy Nels (as quoted by Sarah Longwell, 12:19) / JVL’s inversion of the phrase (12:19)

• "It’s weird that the consequences for failing to comply with an act of Congress...are nothing but the failure to comply with the instructions of a rent a cop...is the death penalty. What the fuck? It’s crazy, right?"
  — Sarah Longwell (12:45)

• "It’s not white or black now. ...It’s MAGA versus non-MAGA. Exactly."
  — Charlie Sykes (19:04–19:08)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Minneapolis shooting video analysis: 03:13–07:00
• Public reaction and partisan Rorschach test: 04:50–06:53
• Comparison to Iranian protests & compliance logic: 09:47–11:00
• Discussion of “Comply or Die” and hypocrisy: 12:19–19:08
• Polling on Trump and policy approval: 19:19–25:15

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Tone & Style

The hosts combine incisive political analysis with irreverence and a touch of exasperation, balancing expertise and skepticism. Their banter is peppered with humor and relatable metaphors while unflinchingly critiquing political hypocrisy, especially around armed authority, compliance, and civil liberties.

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For listeners seeking an unfiltered dive into the week’s most pressing controversies—policing, political rhetoric, and the 2024 state of play—this episode is bracing, revealing, and at turns darkly funny.

Transcript

[Narrator/Advertiser]

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[Charlie Sykes]

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[Sarah Longwell]

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[Charlie Sykes]

Oh, that looks great. Oh man, I should have put on my. I wear Bulwark merch all the time. It is like a problem. But it's like that that sign or what's that that thing in PCU where it's like you're not supposed to wear the band.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're not supposed to wear your own merch.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

My. The big lesson I have in this is. Well, you probably remember this. So the from the Athens rock set. So the indie rock set coming out of Athens, Georgia when like I was in high school and you were in middle school.

[Charlie Sykes]

Sonny DeFranco.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's close. It's Indigo Girls. So Rem broke big first and they would wear often Michael Stipe would bear wear like an Indigo Girls T shirt when he was on stage. Love that. And nobody knew the Indigo Girls. And then the Indigo Girls would sometimes after they broke big, they would wear A Whoosker do, which is another local indie band who never actually broke, but they wear who's Cardoo merch. And anyway, it's just cool. Yeah, it's cool. So I'm going to start wearing Financial Times and Atlantic merch. All right, so quick roadmap. We are going to talk about Minneapolis a little bit. We're going to talk about some very bad polling for Donald Trump, and then we're going to talk about the Nobel Peace Prize. Sound good? Sounds good for you.

[Charlie Sykes]

Let's rock and roll.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, so it's been a horrifying week in Minneapolis. Every day there's more video. The New York Times has now done a millisecond by millisecond analysis, and even the Times feels comfortable in just concluding, like, I'm sorry, he did not get hit. What happens is that thud you hear in the video is him putting his hand on the hood. His feet slip back. He is not knocked back at all. Again, I want to point out that this man, who evidently was a firearms instructor, feels that it is good technique and proper to unholster and begin firing while holding on to his cell phone and continuing to take video. Is that you took gun safety. Did they say to you that when you go out to shoot, it's totally cool to keep taping with one hand while you shoot with the other? That that is a safe and proper way to discharge your weapon?

[Charlie Sykes]

I was in the fifth grade. I was in the fifth grade taking hunter's safety. And their cell phones didn't exist yet. So this wasn't actually a problem. It was more like, hey, you should wear an orange vest when you're tromping through the woods. But I actually. I don't know that you need much of a background in firearms.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're not supposed to drive while you're taping something with your cell phone. That's. That's bad. But shooting at people while taping with your cell phone, totally cool. That's. That's per. That's good protocol, right?

[Charlie Sykes]

Can I say this? This actually requires more of a background in, like, being a human being, because what. What is. What's. What's. What's striking when you. When you see it, right. Is like, the quickness with which he is fine taking a life. Right? And, you know, it's funny, in the focus groups there, it was Trump voters. There was, like, some. There was real charitable kind of, hey, these are complicated situations. Hey. We don't know if he was scared. Like, they weren't. They were neither sort of pro Although one, there were, there were a couple people who were like, no, no, no, that was bad. But there were other people who were just sort of like, I'm not sure, I don't know. I saw the video. But like, it could have been this. It could have been this. Or what bothers me, even though I, I often appreciate or can appreciate in the voters, a sense of nuance. Right. A sense of, I'm not sure, like that's okay for people to not. I actually find certainty about things to be often worse because it's like always wrong, never in doubt tendencies. So, you know, I, I, I appreciate that they're kind of trying to see it from both sides, but I think as this story has gone on and more people have seen it, one of the astonishing things is how many people have seen it like it. This has broken through in ways that many stories don't. And I think, I don't mean to be cavalier with this comparison, but do you remember when there was that, like, do you see a gold dress or do you see a white dress or black dress?

[Sarah Longwell]

Gold or blue?

[Charlie Sykes]

Gold or blue. And that kind of takes off virally in part because it's like, what do you see and what does that say about you? Right. It's like a Rorschach test. And to me, this is getting to be kind of a Rorschach test in how willing are you to take human life with like a certain set of information.

[Narrator/Advertiser]

Right?

[Charlie Sykes]

So, like, you could tell that the cops on January 6th really didn't want to take human life. They did not. They were not opening up. And the only person that gets shot in terms of the insurrectionists is Ashley Babbitt because she is trying to force her way in like she is with a mob at her back. She is one of the, the frontline people pushing to break in, climb through a broken window.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes. And so like that is different than a stationary. And they, and they think about how reticent they were even under those circumstances. Like they did it because there was clear verbal warning. Why your mob coming at them like the self defense, Fear for their life.

[Sarah Longwell]

They shot her in the shoulder. They didn't shoot her in the head three times.

[Charlie Sykes]

I do think this is, I mean.

[Sarah Longwell]

She died from her wounds. Right. Neither here nor there, like it is. It's kind of here nor there. Like it's.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, no, no, no, no. What I was going to say is neither here nor there is the. But but is true. And we are going to have to update how we talk about it is that it looks like Renee Good was shot in the chest. They have, they, they. They now are. It looks like. And it actually one time in the forearm and twice in the chest, which I assume the forearm is that she put her arm up in front of her self when probably he pointed the gun at her or something. I. I don't know, actually. Why should I even speculate this? I don't know this part. What I do know is that in the circumstances that he was in, where his life absolutely wasn't at stake, this is the part that there that everybody can see. So, like, the fact that everybody saw the video and it becomes this sort of a matter of perspective. That perspective is really on the. Do you see a guy who thinks his life was in danger? The people who answer yes to that can only be doing it for polarized, partisan reasons. Because the vast majority of people who look at it, who aren't there to say, like, I defend this at all cost because it's. My team, all see the same thing, which is that his life was not in danger. She was not going fast enough or trying to hurt him or aimed at him. And so the people who are sort of willing to be like, yeah, it's too bad, but shouldn't have been there in the first place. I'm like, no, like, that is the, like, that's the sort of test of humanity is whether you can watch that and say, yeah, maybe it was kind of annoying. She was in the middle of the street, although she's letting cars go by. But, like, if that is your bar for taking life, like, that's the real problem.

[Sarah Longwell]

I need you to do me a favor, okay? I will pay cash money for this at your next Republican Trump voter focus group. Yeah, will you say, guys, we got to talk about Iran and the protests in Iran and the regime's crackdown, and then show them some of the video of Iranian police firing on civilians in Iran and ask them what they think about it.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yep.

[Sarah Longwell]

And then when they all say how terrible it is, ask them, well, the Iranian police did tell them to leave, and they didn't comply with orders. Isn't it reasonable that the Iranian police were just trying to enforce their legal authority and that this policeman from Iran feared for his life because that protester over there was not listening to him and there was a mob of people and he had a reasonable fear for his life? So doesn't that, like, can't he use deadly force there and just listen, just do it? Totally. Don't make any comparisons. Never bring up Minneapolis, never Bring up ice. Just ask them about that and then bring to me the audio of what they say. I will, I would love to hear that.

[Charlie Sykes]

Sure. But here's this, this goes to. Yeah, sure, no, I'll do that. But here's why, here's why you won't get what you want out of it. Like, the thing that you think satisfies you is because ultimately, and this again, it's a bit of a Rorschach test, is how, with what legitimacy do you view the people who are giving the order? Right. Which is the, the American people will be on the side of the freedom fighters everywhere else, but.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, not everywhere else.

[Charlie Sykes]

Not everywhere else, but, but the Trump voters, and this, this is a problem of partisanship now is that I just.

[Sarah Longwell]

Want to hear them say, oh, no, who care? He wasn't being threatened. And what, so the, the, the Iranians are supposed to do whatever the policeman. That's not freedom. That's, this is, this is Troy, Troy Nels, the Texas Democrat. Sorry, Texas Republican, former sheriff. There's a clip of him running around. I don't know if it's recent or not. I just saw it today and he's talking about. But I think it's now because it sounds like he's talking about Minnesota. And he says, if you comply, you will not die. That's it.

[Charlie Sykes]

Oh, God. If you reverse engineer that slogan just ever so slightly, what they're saying to you is comply or die. Comply or die.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's what I want to know. This is the same party that embraces the Gadsden don't tread on me flag.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah, I know.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. And they have the come and take it. Right? The come and take it thing.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

From Texas. Right. So Donald Trump isn't complying with the actual law on the Epstein files. So should he be shot? I mean, that's not, that's not. As somebody on our subreddit said, it is weird that the consequences for failing to comply with an act of Congress that is signed into law are nothing but the failure to comply with the instructions of a rent a cop who's been given a gun after like two weeks of instruction and training is the death penalty. What the fuck? It's crazy, right? I mean, if you just think about it that way, it is insane. No, am I wrong?

[Charlie Sykes]

I mean, I, I, I just, I find that to be like whatever I, I am, I don't think that, that it's, that comparison is.

[Sarah Longwell]

But over and over, when Democrats control law enforcement and I'm thinking like the Eagle Pass Right. Where federal law enforcement showed up down.

[Charlie Sykes]

And they're all civil libertarians all of a sudden.

[Sarah Longwell]

And, well, and, well, all the, you know, and a bunch of the Texas Rangers are there barring. But, you know, basically failing, refusing to comply with the law. And the federal troops just retreated and went and got a court order. Instead of shooting them, why didn't they shoot them? Right. So this is, again, this is a big thing that happened in Eagle Pass during the Biden administration. Federal officials showed up to Eagle Pass. The Eagle Pass stuff had been barricaded off under orders of Greg Abbott. He did not have the authority to do that. This is all statutorily wrong. They failed to comply with legal orders being given by. And the feds should have just come back with a tank and killed them all because they were not complying with legal orders, these Texas law enforcement types.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

But instead, you know, the feds did the reasonable thing, which is we don't need to get into a gun battle out here. Nobody needs to die. We'll go to court and we'll sort this out like civilized people.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do you remember Ted Bundy? No, not Ted Bundy. The. The rancher. The Cliven Bundy. Cliven Bundy.

[Charlie Sykes]

I don't. I like you are pulling up references right now, which I don't. I think here's, here's. Can I just stipulate this just to be clear? I. I think some of the comparisons, I just don't think are like, particularly good comparisons. I will just say, as a broad matter, because you have to. Part of it is you're already operating from. From an absurd premise, which is that comply or die is a standard. Comply or die is the standard. Is not the standard like.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like standard when Republicans are into power. Right?

[Charlie Sykes]

It is. It is. It is what. It is how they are talking right this moment, which is absolutely wrong. See, I. Actually, part of what I, I think maybe I'm disagreeing with in this particular part of the conversation is that if you go back, Republicans are actually often quite civil libertarian about the idea. Like, they don't just say, like, open. This is much more a funk, a feature of Trump and this weird militia, Oath keeper, proud boys mentality that is now like living in our government. I think that a closer comparison is the Ashley Babbitt or. Because they're. It's very clear they are entirely hypocritical when it comes to their people rioting versus somebody else. You know, people protesting and so, like, they will tolerate. This is like what Trump does. Right. He's Like, I'll pardon all the January Six people because they did it on my behalf. Like, that part is clear. That hypocrisy is clear. I think comply or die is like this new thing that they are starting where, like, that's an insane standard and we should oppose it, but it's a.

[Sarah Longwell]

Standard that is almost always trotted out. Like whenever the cops kill a black guy. Right. And Republicans go rushing to the defense, it's like, well, if Michael Brown hadn't run away. Right. Or if George Floyd hadn't been resisting arrest or something. I mean, it's always. I would say the comply or die thing is typical when it's a black guy getting murdered. But then when you get to. When it's a Republican rancher with a bunch of guns, right. Who's like barricading federal officials then.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah, now I remember that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. Do you remember that? That's. That's the Bundy, right? The Bundy ranch. And they just had guns everywhere and they weren't going to let federal officials onto their land. And then like, Republicans go to, like, total sympathy for this guy. Why? She listened to the feds, like, what? You know, what sort of authority they. And like, I'm sorry, if we're in comply or die world, then they'll just fucking, like, drop some JDAMs on him. Like, that's the world we live in. Right, but it's.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, but see, that's not the world we live in. This is. This is. No, no, no, no.

[Sarah Longwell]

Seeing it right now.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, no. The world we live in. Hold on. The world we live in is one where when it's Trump supporters doing it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Charlie Sykes]

Or because this is everything right now. Right now, Minneapolis, Minnesota, you've got a big fraud case in which Somalis are front and center on it. And so the Republican apparatus and Trump is very focused on Minnesota. Similar fraud cases are happening in red states.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yep.

[Charlie Sykes]

In which Somalis are very much not involved. And those are not becoming the cases. And so it's much more to me, the dynamic is not that the Republicans have set a standard of comply or die and now everyone has to meet it. It's that there is a clear double standard.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Charlie Sykes]

In which when it is Trump supporters, overall, there's not like they can beat up the police. They can be white.

[Sarah Longwell]

There's a whole bunch of people beat up the civilians when the police are our people.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah. But it's not just. It's not white or black now. And it's not right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's just MAGA versus non Maga now.

[Charlie Sykes]

It'S MAGA versus non maga. Exactly. Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, man. It's very depressing. All right, talk to me about some polls because you texted me with some polls this morning, which I did is.

[Charlie Sykes]

Exciting since what we just talked about was incredibly bleak. Right. There's this. What, what, what we should, what people should know is that the American people are quite opposed to the way ISIS behaving.

[Sarah Longwell]

There has been many of the American people, not, not all the American people.

[Charlie Sykes]

That'S true, but it is, it is ranging somewhere from 60, 40 to 70, 30 in the polls with the people siding against ICE. And in fact. So let me just run you through because this is all brand new this morning and I was tweeting about it, so I can just read it to you. Okay, so there's a new NPR Marist poll which is a very high rated. This is a gold standard poll. 57% think Trump's decisions have weakened the United States's role on the world stage. This has a lot of international national stuff in it. 70% say the U. S. Should receive congressional approval before taking military action. Okay. 70% of Americans don't think that Trump could just like go into Greenland, go into Venezuela, any of that. That's good. 69 either strongly oppose or oppose U. S. Military involvement in Greenland. So again, we're at about 70% of Americans and that's just the people who oppose it. And then there's a bunch of unsure. And so the number of people who are for it is incredibly small. In some of these polls, it's single digits, a majority Americans.

[Sarah Longwell]

If I could just give a brief aside, I went digging on this yesterday because I was curious about Republican support for a bunch of this stuff. And I, I found a poll yesterday from this week in which pretty substantial majority of Republicans somewhat or strongly approve of ICE's actions. And the, the percentage strongly prove. It's, it's like 50. So it's 80 total with somewhat. And strongly. And 53% of Republicans said they strongly approve of ISIS actions.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, they strongly disapprove of ISIS actions.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, not, not of the one as of, as of yesterday. But again, that was just an older poll. But what, what I wanted to say is that like, on Greenland, even the Republicans were like, the Republicans are like, should we invade? Greenland was like 35%, which is really, really low.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes. So let me just finish this and then I want to take on the ICE thing directly because the vast majority of Americans have been expressing disapproval of ice.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, okay, so see if I can find this while you talk.

[Charlie Sykes]

So a majority of Americans, 56%, either strongly oppose or oppose the US taking military action in Venezuela. 36% of Americans. So only 36% of Americans approve how of how President Trump is handling the economy. Okay, so 57% disapprove. And overall 38% approve of how President Trump is performing in office. What's my Bush line, guys? It's 32%. So this is. He's 38% approve of how President Trump is performing in office with 56% disapproving. And that. And then so CNN, right, at the same time puts out another poll. CNN, also a very high rated pollster, finds very similar things across the board. I know that voters in the focus groups, they voted for Trump because they wanted him to solve the border and fix the economy, like those were the things that they wanted. And according to the CNN poll, he is now minus 16 and minus 21 on those issues respectively. Meaning he is. And that's on the border. That's not even on ice. That's on the border, which is. Should be an enormously strong issue for him. And the key consideration is now whether this administration cares at all about public opinion. Like do they care about public opinion or are they more focused on terrorizing people with ice? And part of it is that Trump's own team. So the reporting from our old boy Mark Caputo, who I got to say is often putting maybe just a little more of a shine on this administration than, than I care for. But he has a story out in Axios today saying that Trump's team recently viewed private GOP polling, which means that is GOP of their own voters, Right, that showed support for his immigration policies falling. The results reflected in public polls bolstered internal concern that the administration's about the administration's controversial enforcement tactics. And so we are seeing poll after poll that says that the. And oh, and then also in the CNN poll, a majority 58% of people call the first year of Trump's term a failure. Come on, man.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's pretty nice.

[Charlie Sykes]

This should be music to your ears.

[Sarah Longwell]

I can just imagine the meeting where they're presenting these polls to Trump and Stephen Miller says to him, don't worry, sir, we're going to actually deport all the people who don't approve of you. So, you know, these numbers won't actually matter. Um, well, I gotta say, it's very good. It's very, very useful.

[Charlie Sykes]

I want to pair this with a couple other things that I have found interesting. So we just got a new Cook rating where they were looking at the congressional seats. Every single. They, they had to change 18 races.

[Sarah Longwell]

Wow.

[Charlie Sykes]

18 races move in the direction of Democrats. So a bunch of ones that were lean r have moved to toss up, but they were all moving in the direction of Democrats and so they had to re categorize them. And then in the most recent AP Nork poll where Trump's overall approval is at 40%, which means he has a 59% disapproval in this poll, Trump's immigration policies are at 38% approval and 61% disapproval. So I mean, come on. This American people are not on board with this. Does that not make you, does that not make you feel good?

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, I'll answer that question, but I think we should, we should do that like on the other side. All right. Is that all right?

[Charlie Sykes]

Let's go do it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, guys, come join us. We lock almost nothing. We give almost every single thing we do away for free. Come join Bulwark plus and support us.