Podcast Summary: The Next Level

Host: Jonathan V. Last (JVL), Sarah Longwell
Episode: Secret Podcast: Trump Is Now Deeply Unpopular Nationwide
Date: January 23, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of The Next Level unpacks the latest shocking poll numbers showing Donald Trump's national unpopularity, explores Democratic and Republican strategies on ICE enforcement and civil rights, dissects the media’s ongoing struggle to cover Trump with nuance, and discusses looming political consequences in battleground states and amongst young voters. The hosts bring signature wit, skepticism, and frankness to pressing political challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal Banter and Winter Blues

• The episode opens with humor and camaraderie regarding JVL’s on-camera appearance and general "pallor" during winter months.
  • [03:05] Sarah: “The amount of concealer I’ve got... I become extremely pasty, almost translucent.”
  • [04:01] JVL: “I want to be thinner. I’m going to run over old gypsy women if I have to to keep getting thinner.”
  • This sets a candid, self-deprecating tone and builds rapport before deep-diving into political analysis.

2. Trump’s Greenland Reversal and Media/Social Consequences

• Trump reversed his position on “invading Greenland”—something some Republicans started treating seriously, only for Trump to “pull the rug” out from under them.
  • [05:12] JVL: “It is one of his best qualities… he makes fools out of all the people who go along with him.”
• Discussion of how European leaders and the global community react more seriously to Trump’s actions than the American public and media, leading to long-term diplomatic ruptures.
  • [13:01] JVL: “People seem to be like, ah, great, Trump tacoed, everything’s fine. Let’s all get back to… another Trump crisis. We’re fine."
  • [13:48] Sarah: “The thing that we gave away… was the entire globe’s trust in who we are.”

3. DHS/ICE Actions in Maine and Political Calculations

• Analysis of ICE’s poised intervention in Maine, local political ramifications, and Governor Janet Mills’ response.
  • [06:37] JVL, quoting Gov. Mills: “If your plan is to come here to be provocative… do not be confused. Those tactics are not welcome here.”
  • Both hosts discuss how such statements are performative with little real intent to push back, and how events in Maine could politically backfire for Susan Collins, forcing her to pick a side.
  • [08:24] Sarah: “This couldn’t be more toxic for Susan Collins… Then Collins has to make a choice: pick a fight with Trump… or defend ICE doing something wildly unpopular.”

4. Escalation and Community Bonds in Law Enforcement

• Debate about whether local law enforcement confronting ICE would build solidarity or increase volatility.
  • [11:24] JVL: “Isn’t escalatory helpful?”
  • [11:42] Sarah: “This is where I am less willing to do kind of the accelerationism piece because… that level of political violence can get out of hand very quickly.”
• Musings about whether genuine resistance by local authorities would have lasting positive community effects.

5. Media Coverage of Trump’s “Insane” Rhetoric

• The panel dissects mainstream media’s inconsistent approach to Trump’s rhetoric versus actions, and public desensitization to Trump’s frequent norm violations.
  • [15:08] JVL: “He [Trump] said that America lived under an illegitimate government for four years.”
  • [18:33] JVL: “The responsible way to have covered that speech would have been to say: well, 72 hours ago the president insisted… Now at Davos… he said he could do military action but won’t.”
• Frustration with media “sanewashing”—treating Trump’s rare, normal-sounding statements as fully binding and ignoring disturbing, destabilizing rhetoric.

6. Detailed Breakdown of Trump’s Poll Numbers: He Is Deeply Unpopular Nationwide

• Topline Numbers:
  • [19:54] Sarah: “He is… minus 16. So 56% disapproves of Trump actively. He’s got a 40% approval rating. And I find that… the trend line is down.”
• Issue-by-Issue:
  • Economy: Minus 18 (58% disapprove, 40% approve, [21:13]).
  • Immigration: Minus 17 (58% disapprove, 40% approve).
  • Cost of Living: Minus 29 (34% approve, 64% disapprove; “that is super… bad”).
  • ICE Enforcement: Minus 27 (36% approve, 63% disapprove [24:52]).
  • Epstein Files: Minus 44 (22% approve, 66% disapprove).
• Analysis and Hopefulness:
  • [23:34] Sarah: “Trump’s approval number isn’t in line with the cost of living number… what you want is for the 34%… to be his real floor.”
  • [25:45] Sarah: “The American people are not unresponsive to what’s happening. They do not approve of ICE.”

7. Voter Enthusiasm & Congressional Generic Ballot

• [24:43] JVL: “I saw congressional ballot number the other day. It blew my mind. It was like, plus 22.”
• Sarah disputes if Democrats’ generic ballot lead is that large but agrees there’s a growing enthusiasm gap in Dems’ favor, with the generic now “47 for Democrats, 42 for Republicans.”

8. Cynical Take on "Hardcore" ICE Supporters

• [26:07] JVL: “That is more than a third of the country sees what ICE is doing and is like, yeah, that gets me horny. That’s a problem.”
• Gallows humor about the percentage of Americans truly enthusiastic about harsh immigration enforcement.

9. Affordability, Gas Prices, and Tariff Manipulation

• [26:51] JVL: Link between Trump’s focus on gas prices and his ability to manipulate short-term costs through reserves or foreign influence.
• [28:49] Sarah: “The big thing that would change the prices is tariffs coming off… I’m not sure marginal things he can do with gas prices… would matter right enough for people to feel it.”
• Trump’s potential to “stroke checks” to voters, artificially lowering costs in election run-up, and how some of these measures may eventually backfire.

10. Preview: JD Vance and the Trump Coalition

• Brief teaser to Sarah’s focus group findings showing young Trump voters’ lack of enthusiasm for VP pick JD Vance, with promise of deeper dive after the break.
  • [29:42] Sarah: “I got so much to say about this. Some wild things are happening with the voters.”
  • Episode ends on a cliffhanger, inviting listeners to subscribe for more.

Standout Quotes & Moments

• On Trump’s “Deal Making”
  • JVL: “It is unfortunate that he did the art of the deal, like 48 hours after a bunch of other normie Republicans finally were like, yeah, no, I guess we do have to invade Greenland.” [04:38]
• On American Media's Handling of Trump
  • Sarah: “They have moved the goalposts on the American presidency where we are only supposed to take the president’s actions into account, and never his words, which is an insane proposition…” [17:29]
• On U.S. Public Opinion
  • Sarah: “Trump is also deeply underwater on a whole range of issues across polling…The trend line has been entirely in the negative…” [21:13]
• On ICE Approval Numbers
  • JVL: “That is more than a third of the country… that gets me horny. That’s a problem.” [26:07]
• On Polling Consistency
  • Sarah: “The Siena/New York Times poll, Wall Street Journal poll, the YouGov poll…polling is enormously consistent.” [19:54]

Notable Timestamps

• [03:05] – Hosts joke about their winter appearance, set the episode’s tone
• [04:01-05:12] – Trump’s Greenland deal and “art of the deal” explained
• [06:37-10:30] – Maine ICE controversy and Gov. Mills’ performative resistance
• [11:24-12:00] – Debate on escalation, local law enforcement, and community bonds
• [13:01-14:56] – Global fallout from Trump’s foreign policy flip-flops, Europe’s reaction
• [15:08-18:33] – Media’s handling of Trump’s rhetoric and normalization dangers
• [19:54-24:52] – Deep-dive into bad Trump poll numbers and issue-by-issue unpopularity
• [24:43-25:45] – Congressional ballot surprise, voter enthusiasm gaps
• [26:07-26:42] – Dark humor and cynicism about ICE support base
• [27:00-29:27] – Trump’s tools to manipulate affordability and cost of living
• [29:42-30:04] – Teaser for JD Vance and focus group revelations

Tone & Language

The episode is casual, sarcastic, and deeply informed, with hosts alternating between gallows humor, sharp media criticism, and pragmatic political analysis. There’s a deep skepticism about institutions’ ability to effectively confront Trumpism, but also a recurring insistence on not succumbing to despair.

Summary Takeaway

This episode convincingly spells out that Trump is “deeply unpopular nationwide,” and that the media, Democratic leaders, and even some Republicans continue to struggle with how best to counter him—either through policy, rhetoric, or electoral strategy. Despite shocks to the system, the American public is registering disapproval across the board, but the co-hosts warn against complacency and urge close attention to fast-moving political undercurrents.

For extended insights on young Trump voters’ feelings about JD Vance and more, subscribe to The Next Level.