The Next Level – Episode 1055
Title: Trump is Crashing Out And We're LOVING It
Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)
Podcast: The Bulwark’s The Next Level
Overview:
This week, the hosts revel in the apparent political decline of Donald Trump, as indicated by falling approval ratings and a string of public missteps. They dig into new polling data, discuss the shifting political and cultural landscape, the ongoing relevance of the Epstein files for Trump and the GOP, and unpack several recent Trump-related controversies—ranging from racist social posts to quarrels over the Super Bowl halftime show. The discussion is lively, wry, and bristling with their typical banter.
Key Discussion Points & Insights:
1. Trump’s Sinking Approvals: Signs of Real Trouble
- JVL shares fresh YouGov polling numbers showing Trump deeply underwater in approval almost across the board, especially outside of his Republican base.
- "Donald Trump's overall approval rating 37% approve, 56% strongly or somewhat disapprove...with Republicans, he is at 14% disapprove and only 82% approve." (02:45)
- Sarah contextualizes the shift with aggregate data (Nate Silver): Since February 2025, Trump’s numbers have dropped 20 points in overall approval.
- Immigration, Economy & Inflation: Trump underwater on all core issues, with steep double-digit declines in issue approval since early 2025.
- "On immigration...the total shift has been minus 18.5. He's experienced a drop of 18 and a half points. On the economy, there's been a minus 22%, almost 23%." (06:01)
- Interpretation: While the economy isn’t “disastrous,” the public response echoes inflation panic seen under Biden, suggesting voters respond similarly to economic headwinds regardless of party.
2. The “Bush Line” and GOP Defections
- The hosts riff on Sarah’s “Bush line” concept: Trump will only reach true collapse in approval if Republicans walk away, as they did with George W. Bush.
- JVL: "If you're going to drive Trump really down, like, below the mid or high 30s, that has to be because Republicans leave him.” (04:35)
- 82% GOP approval is significant erosion; typically Trump’s support among Republicans is high 80s or 90s.
3. White House Panic & Communication Missteps
- JVL & Tim discuss a bizarre unbylined White House article titled: "Don't be a panicin', we're winning and we're not slowing down."
- Tim: "If they had good news...they would just put that out instead of 'don't be a panicking.'” (10:38)
- Both sides note the desperation in defending diminishing returns (stock market, ICE raids, ending puberty blockers), with the economy & affordability curiously low on Trump’s list of accomplishments.
- Sarah: "To have the economy and affordability...so far down in one's list of accomplishments...that's the story of Trump. Trump is focused on...the wrong things.” (15:00)
4. Epstein Files, GOP Disarray, and the Trump Connection
- The trio dissect the continued drip of revelations from the Epstein files, the lies told by Trumpworld figures, and the rare moments of GOP dissent, particularly from Rep. Thomas Massie and even, surprisingly, Lauren Boebert.
- Tim: "Like, he [Trump] behaved like a normal human being...Turns out, definitely a lie. A complete lie." (19:53)
- Discussion on Lutnick, Musk, and other elites lying about their Epstein ties.
- Tim recounts: “In the intervening period, he took his boat to his island with his children and started a business with him. It’s like, I just...you’re lying to me.” (24:33)
- Noteworthy: Multiple Republican factions now speaking out or meddling—once unthinkable in the party.
5. Trump’s Role in Epstein Scandal Still Clouded
- Miami Herald reporting: Trump allegedly phoned police to thank them for investigating Epstein in the 2000s, while also having maintained a close friendship with Epstein and Maxwell.
- Sarah: “I do think what is clear is that Trump knew what was going on. He knew the whole time. And if this police chief is to be believed...it was becoming clear he was going to be prosecuted, that Trump did try to insert himself in some way and put himself on the side of, 'Oh yeah, this guy's a scumbag.'” (33:00)
- Tim’s Trump theory: “Trump praises people that like him...even if they're evil. And Trump disparages people who are mean to him...even if they're good.” (34:26)
- Both Ghislaine Maxwell and Epstein pled the Fifth when asked under oath if Trump was ever present with underage girls.
- Sarah: “Now, if they wanted to exonerate Trump, they could in those moments. But...she is saying, I will give full testimony if I get clemency from Donald Trump...it's not even remotely hard to interpret this...clemency, I’ll lie for you.” (36:41)
- Hosts agree: Even if no direct involvement, Trump was at minimum aware and is tangled in cover-ups, with potential for damaging testimony if Ghislaine Maxwell bargains for clemency.
6. Trump’s Series of Public Disasters: Weakness on Display
- Trump posts a racist video with Obamas depicted as apes; administration scrambles to blame a staffer after negative blowback.
- Sarah: “He blamed it on a young person to whom he handed his phone...to complete the truth socialing. Right. It's all a lie...” (46:37)
- Tim: "It is pretty concerning that there is like young interns that control the communications channel for the leader of the free world..." (47:39)
- Trump’s failed cultural attacks:
- Super Bowl/Bad Bunny halftime blowup — the right picks a culture war fight over Spanish-language music, but it backfires as Bad Bunny’s popularity dwarfs their reach.
- JVL: "Trump picking a fight over Bad Bunny turns out to have been a mistake..." (51:03)
- Sarah: "They want Kid Rock in jorts with like a bad laser show. And that's not true. That's just not right." (53:18)
- Trump’s “snowflakery”: Melodrama over things like the halftime show or attacking Canadian hockey now marks the GOP, usurping their former claims that “the left are the real snowflakes.”
- Sarah: "All they do now is cry about everything...You guys are everything that you ever said the left was ever worse." (56:35)
- Super Bowl/Bad Bunny halftime blowup — the right picks a culture war fight over Spanish-language music, but it backfires as Bad Bunny’s popularity dwarfs their reach.
7. Party Fractures and Signs of Real Change
- Boebert and others now siding with calls for transparency; splinters emerge in the GOP.
- Tim: “We just are a long way from February 2025...to having multiple factions inside the party now starting to express concerns, you know, whether it be about Epstein or, you know, the crypto, corruption, etc. Is...it's not nothing. It's bad for him.” (43:03)
- Sarah: “Cash Patel lied under oath...If they get their stuff together and Dems take the House in 2026...there are six co-conspirators in here. Massie is unearthing them and Cash said that they didn't exist." (44:02)
8. Memorable Quotes & Banter
- “Everyday costs. Continue moderating.” [on Trump’s meager economic boast, 16:35]
- “If we sold a red hat with...that phrase on it, I would wear the shit out of that on the show.” —JVL (16:37)
- “You guys are everything that you ever said the left was ever worse.” —Sarah Longwell (57:11)
- “The defining meme of this year is going to be Zoran and Ms. Rachel doing the wah, wah, wah, wah thing at the manga guys, because that's just all it is. It's just like, they've won everything. They still just cry and bitch and moan about stuff.” —Tim Miller (57:11)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Trump Approval Ratings Drop: [02:45]-[05:55]
- Issue-Based Declines / Economy: [05:55]-[07:51]
- White House Panic (“Don’t be a panicking”): [09:40]-[12:29]
- Epstein Files, GOP Fractures: [19:07]-[29:14]
- Trump’s Epstein Role & Police Chief Call: [31:13]-[34:26]
- Clemency for Maxwell, Fifth Pleading: [36:41]-[39:01]
- Trump’s Truth Social Obamas Racist Post: [46:37]-[48:55]
- Bad Bunny/Super Bowl Culture War Backfire: [50:24]-[54:12]
- Trump’s Hockey/Canda “Threat”: [54:45]-[56:35]
Notable Podcast Tone
- Leaning into victory-lap mode, the hosts are energetic, mischievous, occasionally incredulous at both Trump’s weakness and the willingness of his inner circle to lie about everything.
- Wry humor repeatedly skewers Trump’s flailing efforts (“Everyday costs. Continue moderating.”) and mocks the GOP’s slide into cultural and political irrelevance.
- The persistent theme: the tide is finally turning, and they’re here for it.
Memorable Moment
On the right’s new “snowflake” culture:
Sarah Longwell [56:35]:
"All they do now is cry about everything...You guys are everything that you ever said the left was ever worse."
On Trump's dwindling GOP support:
JVL [03:17]:
"I think 82% approval rating from Republicans for Trump is a flashing danger sign."
Sarah Longwell [03:28]:
"No, that's what I mean. I mean, good for us."
On Trump’s claims of economic success:
JVL [14:53]:
"Put that in a bumper sticker."
Tim Miller [14:55]:
"Put it on a red hat."
Sarah Longwell [16:35]:
"Everyday costs. Continue moderating."
Conclusion
This episode drives home how the political winds have shifted since Trump’s re-election and how Trumpism now shows signs of both cultural and institutional decline. The hosts balance schadenfreude with sharp analysis, warning that although the cracks are widening, there’s still much work left for those seeking lasting change.
For a deeper political dive with wit and sharp edges, listen to the full episode or catch up at www.thebulwark.com.