The Next Level – Episode 1059: Secret Podcast: War with Iran and the Takeover of CNN

Date: February 28, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller (not present during this recording), Jonathan V. Last ("JVL")
Podcast: The Bulwark — The Next Level

Episode Overview

In this episode, Sarah Longwell and JVL tackle several urgent and deep political topics. The discussion is marked by their characteristic analysis and candid banter. Key topics include the rapidly escalating situation with Iran and looming prospects of war, the political drivers and consequences behind it, profound concern over creeping authoritarianism and media consolidation in the U.S. (focusing on recent events at CNN), and a harrowing account of government cruelty in the U.S. immigration and law enforcement system. The hosts interweave current events, policy critique, and empathy, unpacking the headlines with historical perspective and moral clarity.

War With Iran: How Likely and Why Now?

Probability of War: A Sobering Assessment

• JVL opens with stark news: embassies being evacuated, preparations reminiscent of war's eve.
  • “It just feels like where we’re going. J.D. Vance trying to reassure people, ‘oh, this won't be a prolonged conflict. We're just going to go in there and get out.’ Which is, I guess...” (03:15)
• JVL's Odds: "3 in 4 chance that we are [going to war with Iran]. 75%." (02:47)

Political Drivers for the Conflict

• JVL incisively attributes U.S. momentum toward war, not to global necessity, but to domestic and Israeli political pressures:
  • “Israel sure wants it, Trump sure wants it, and I think the Iranians have decided their position is stronger if they get attacked by Israel and the United States.” (02:55)
• Sarah Longwell critiques U.S. foreign policy history and skepticism:
  • "Has anybody else ever said that? Have we, have we seen that movie before?" (03:26), referencing short-war delusions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Feasibility and Motives of Intervention

• Nation-building Dilemma:
  • JVL: “In order to get to [a good outcome], it requires nation building and boots on the ground and somebody to provide for internal security while you stand up...” (04:37)
• Sarah: “Americans love that...we’re ready for that. I mean, we’re in the mood for it." (05:09, with irony)

Nuclear Program and Pretexts

• Sarah questions the rationale over Iran’s nuclear capacities:
  • “We cannot allow Iran to get enriched uranium and we obliterated their nuclear infrastructure so that they can't get it. Like both those things can't be true...Are you telling me that that was a lie?” (06:17)
• JVL: “We all said it was a lie at this point in time, we sure [knew it].” (06:50)
  • Ultimate conclusion: Pretexts shift, real agenda is "Netanyahu wants to cripple Iran for reasons of strategic security for Israel..." (07:40)

Regime-Change Risks & Civilian Consequences

• Civil Unrest & Failed States:
  • JVL outlines the grim catch-22 if regime is toppled: “If you’re gonna not just have either a failed state...or a period of civil war...some force has to be there keeping the peace. Who’s that going to be? Right. Sounds like us, I would say.” (09:28)
• American Support For Israel:
  • Notably, JVL cites polling: “American sympathy for Israel is upside down for the first time since they started measuring that...Today it is 41% Palestinians, 36% Israelis.” (10:42)
  • Sarah: “A lot of that is a shift with younger voters across the political spectrum.” (11:11)

The Ellisons, CNN, and the Media "Command Economy"

CNN Takeover: A Shift to Authoritarian Control?

• JVL reports: “The Ellisons have won their attempt to purchase Warner Brothers and CNN...It is interesting that the head of Netflix went to meet with the President...and then a few hours later announced we're out, we're not going to try to do this thing anymore.” (11:43)
  • Notes the shift to centralized, state-influenced economics: "It is no different, like really no different than how business works in China. Where the...Chairman Xi will say yes, this company now wins.” (12:49)

Media, Capitalism, and Ideological Cynicism

• Sarah Longwell: “There are things that can still be true and false… nobody should ever at this point, after what we've seen...do we need to take anything [Republicans] say about capitalism, about the debt, about morality, character, none of that should be taken seriously at all.” (13:14)
• JVL laments Anderson Cooper's career sacrifice: “I feel bad for Anderson Cooper who walked away from a ton of money at CBS because he didn’t want to work for Barry Weiss and said he was just going to focus on a CNN show and two weeks later, oh, can’t get away from Barry Weiss. Oops.” (13:59)

Larger Trend: Capture of Legacy & New Media

• Sarah chronicles the systematic transfer of media control under the guise of “free speech” and market competition, but driven by oligarchic and political interests.
  • “It is happening right before our eyes. Where what is? ...whether it is X, formerly Twitter, whether it is Meta, formerly Facebook...now CNN...these are not all..." (15:06 onward)
• The "Preposterousness" of Media Self-Critique
  • Sarah describes attending a media “restoring trust” event:
    • "I was watching Brendan Carr and I was watching the room. He was met with not scorn, but sort of like, there’s a preposterousness. Like, everybody knows the game, but they all sat there." (15:49)

Willingness to Sacrifice Profit for Power

• JVL: “It isn’t the case that, like...it's about dollars and cents...No, these places are choosing to lose more money in order to curry favor with the regime.” (17:05)

“Depraved Indifference”: Immigration Cruelty in America

The Story of Nurut Amin Shah Alam

• JVL narrates the tragic death of a mostly-blind asylum-seeker from Burma, found dead in Buffalo after being released by DHS with no support in winter conditions.
  • “They dropped him in the middle of nowhere. And by the way, then they lied about it...initial reports were like, yeah, we dropped him at a Tim Hortons. It was safe and warm...then we got body cam footage...the Tim Hortons was closed.” (21:51)
• Sarah's Empathy and Outrage (with chilling historical resonance):
  • “The part that causes me to feel that, like, it's like that...holocaust feeling. The. Like, how do people do this to each other?...what we are doing here is being maximally cruel. Just because.” (27:36)
• JVL: “...if there isn’t accountability, then it will happen again.” (29:07)

Systemic Patterns: Cruelty by Design

• Both reflect on how similar stories (in Minnesota and elsewhere) reveal a pattern — it's not a one-off, but “depraved indifference” or worse.
• “It is much more like depraved indifference.” (Sarah, 26:57)
• “The reason I’m fixated on this...what DHS was doing by releasing people from Whipple in the dead of night without coats or phones, that that should be interpreted as attempted murder. I think that’s right.” (JVL, 20:19)

Lack of Accountability & Need for Awareness

• Sarah: “You have to do is tell people that it's happening...I basically told that story about the Wibble building to anyone who would listen to me because I want people to know that that's what they're doing...Most Americans do not want this.” (29:24)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “3 in 4 chance that we are [going to war with Iran]. 75%.” — JVL (02:47)
• “Have we seen that movie before?” — Sarah (03:26)
• “I think the Iranians have decided their position is stronger if they get attacked by Israel and the United States as well.” — JVL (02:55)
• “We all said it was a lie at this point in time, we sure [knew it].” — JVL (06:50)
• “In order to get to [a good outcome], it requires nation building and boots on the ground…” — JVL (04:37)
• “Today it is 41% Palestinians, 36% Israelis. Interesting. Seems like it should inform people's political calculus.” — JVL (10:42)
• “The Ellisons have won their attempt to purchase Warner Brothers and CNN…” — JVL (11:53)
• “It is no different...than how business works in China. Where the...Chairman Xi will say yes, this company now wins.” — JVL (12:49)
• “Nobody should ever at this point...do we need to take anything [Republicans] say about capitalism, about the debt, about morality, character, none of that should be taken seriously at all.” — Sarah (13:14)
• “These places are choosing to lose more money in order to curry favor with the regime.” — JVL (17:05)
• “It is much more like depraved indifference.” — Sarah (26:57)
• “If there isn’t accountability, then it will happen again.” — JVL (29:07)
• “Most Americans do not want this. Most Americans, like they couldn't stomach it...You have to do is tell people that it's happening.” — Sarah (29:24)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• War with Iran, odds and drivers: 01:31–11:43
• CNN/Warner Bros. Takeover & Media Capture: 11:43–17:27
• Nurut Amin Shah Alam narrative & U.S. immigration cruelty: 19:27–29:45
• Preview of next segment (trans rights, Kansas): 29:45–

Memorable Moments

• JVL’s dark humor about expected “smash and grab” American conflicts mirrors their skepticism of quick, easy wars.
• Sarah’s moral outrage at the systemic brutality in U.S. law enforcement and immigration, including analogies to historical atrocities (“holocaust feeling”), stand out for their intensity and conviction.
• JVL’s mention of how U.S. business and media are being reorganized by political fiat, “no different than how business works in China” (12:49), is a recurring theme.
• Both hosts' urgent call for public awareness as an essential step—“You have to do is tell people that it's happening”—gives the episode its underlying moral imperative.

Tone and Style

The hosts are frank, incisive, sometimes bleakly humorous, and always passionate. They move fluidly between analysis, personal experience, statistics, and pointed moral commentary—making this a lively, sometimes bracing listen for those seeking candid, hard-hitting political conversation.

This summary covers the central discussions and main takeaways, capturing the urgent tone and significant arguments made by Sarah Longwell and JVL throughout episode 1059 of The Next Level.