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Sarah Longwell
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JVL
Hello everyone, this is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. We actually have a quite packed show today. There is a lot of things that I want to talk to Sarah about. Some of them are very immediate news of the day stuff. Some of it is big picture stuff, part of our ongoing colloquy and some of it's about pinball. Not going to lie, I'm going to save that to the end, but I'm having a little bit of a crisis on the pinball front. Just stash that away. Okay? So very quickly we're going to go to war with Iran. Today we have word that the US Government is ordering employees out of embassies in Israel and ira. I believe the Chinese have already done the same. This is the kind of thing you just do in the run up to war. Wow.
Sarah Longwell
What's your degree of certainty on that? This is the secret show. So as we we should just and because this is the free part of the secret show, we should tell people that secret show rules.
JVL
Right.
Sarah Longwell
Are that we are allowed. You're our first draft of analysis.
JVL
I mean, it seems to me like a 3 in 4 chance that we are. 3 out of 4, 75% chance. Yeah, I think so. So, like not, it's not impossible that we could get out of this, but it seems like everybody involved wants it. It seems like Israel sure wants it, Trump sure wants it. And I think the Iranians have decided their position is stronger if they get attacked by Israel in the United States as well. So given that, it just feels like where we're going. J.D. vance, a short people today that, oh, this won't be a prolonged conflict. We're just going to go in there and get out. Which is, I guess.
Sarah Longwell
Has anybody else ever said that? Have we, have we seen that movie before?
JVL
Well, what's, I mean, what's funny about that though is that it, it just dynamites your own leverage in extracting any sort of concessions in the lead up to a ceasefire. Right. I mean, to say in the administration like, hey, we may go and bomb a bunch of shit, but don't worry afterwards we will be desperate to get out and sign something that we can call a deal.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I mean, this is, I remember this about Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the things that always stuck with me was that they used to say on the ground, they may have the watches, but we have the time. And that will still be the case. Like if, if they know that the political pressure on us is a smash and grab job, like we do in a place like Venezuela or whatever, and that we're not going to stay. You're right. That makes, that makes sense. So why do it? Like, if you're do it, I understand. Because Israel wants us to. Is there a, is there a more charitable reason than that? Like, what do you do? What do you make of the wisdom of getting involved in Iran?
JVL
I should say there is a chance that you could get to a good outcome in Iran. Iran. Iran is bad. The Iranian regime is bad, incredibly repressive. You could see your way to a world in which you get a better outcome there. The problem is that in order to get to that outcome, it requires nation building and boots on the ground and somebody to provide for internal security while you stand up.
Sarah Longwell
Americans love that. Right. We're ready for that. I mean, we're in the mood for it.
JVL
Right. Why are we doing it? We're doing it because Israel wants us to. Like, Netanyahu just feels like he's got pedal to the metal. He's got three years in which the American President will do whatever he says. And so he's going to do that. And Trump, I think on the heels of Venezuela has realized like not realized, but has decided like, oh, I can do stuff, I can blow stuff up and I can get rid of dictators who I don't like and replace them with dictators who I do like. I'm not sure who the Deli Rodriguez figure in Iran is. You know, I, I don't know that there is such a thing as a Delsey Rodriguez figure in Iran. I think it is more likely that if the mullahs were decapitated that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard winds up in charge. They, they would be more hardline and more anti American. But you know, you never, you never know. Anything can happen, I guess.
Sarah Longwell
Can you give me an update because you are, you are more of the foreign policy person on what I would consider to be the duality of we cannot allow Iran to get enriched uranium and we obliterated their nuclear infrastructure so that they can't get it. Like both those things can't be true. Trump told us that we obliterated all completely and totally. Completely and totally. Are you telling me that that was a lie?
JVL
I mean we all said it was a lie at this point time, we sure. Right. And this is, and you know, we got yelled at. How dare you insult our great patriotic warriors when like it would have been fine to say we just dealt that program a very serious blow. We believe we have set them back anywhere from six months to six years and that is worth doing because they were, they were inching closer and had to do it. Right. I mean that would have been a perfectly fine step. But of course Trump can't say that that's not how he operates. I believe their case seems to be, they are, I mean the case is everything always right. But the, the grown up version of their case is that well, this is now about the missile program.
Sarah Longwell
Okay.
JVL
And so this is about we now of course the fissile material was all completely and totally obliterated, but this is really about making sure we get there CBM program which they don't have. Now like I said, the Trump administration is also saying that the nuclear stuff is, is part of it, but it's all bullshit. I mean it is just Netanyahu wants to cripple Iran for reasons of strategic security for Israel and you know, God love him, I hope it works out for everybody. Goodness knows the mullahs are bad people and deserve to have bad things happen to Them.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And to be, to be clear, I would be in a different. Under a different administration and a different timeline, it's very likely I would say, yes, we do need to do things to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And if that means that we bomb their stockpiles, if it means we have to have, like, I don't know, you could sell me on that. In a different world where we had competent leaders and people who I trusted. Although I would go into it with a great deal more skepticism than I did when I was 25, George W. Bush told me about weapons of mass destruction. Like, I've learned a few things since then. But the idea of your point about Netanyahu, just like I have three years, I'm going to do what I can, while I can do it, I think is right. And I think that Trump and Hegseth, like, I just, I couldn't trust these people any less to do anything, let alone begin a boots on the ground war. Now is that, is that right, though? Would it have to be a boots on the ground war to do what
JVL
we're talking about somebody. If the regime were toppled and the idea was we're going to empower the dissident movements within Iran, the dissident factions within Iran, somebody has to provide for their security because there's a period of total chaos in which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard types still have all the guns.
Sarah Longwell
Right.
JVL
And so if you're gonna, if you're gonna not just have either a failed state in which it's total lawlessness, or a period of civil war in which the Revolutionary Guard are just massacring people, as they did in the most recent repercussion. Most recent, what's the word I'm looking for? Atrocities when they were killing all the people who rose up in the provinces. Some force has to be there keeping the peace. Who's that going to be? Right. Sounds like us, I would say. And this is interesting, the AP has a poll out today. American sympathy for Israel is upside down for the first time since they started measuring that.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
So in 2002, who are your sympathies more with, the Israelis or the Palestinians? It was 60% Israelis, 12% Palestinians. Today it is 41% Palestinians, 36% Israelis. Interesting. Seems like it should inform people's political calculus. I don't know. Just me. We don't have to get into that.
Sarah Longwell
Well, can I just say that that does bolster your point. Like if Netanyahu. Because a lot of that is a shift with younger voters across the political spectrum. And so if he no longer thinks he has either, like whoever is replaces Trump will have to be much more Israel skeptical. Like they don't necessarily have to be Tucker Carlson, but like JD Vance is real skeptical. Seems quite likely. And so you're right that he is under the gun to try to achieve things while he's still got Trump there who will do what he wants.
JVL
Yeah, I think that's right. All right. The other big news in news news was the Ellison's have won.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
Their attempt to purchase Warner Brothers and cnn. I did a long live stream this morning with Sam and Sunny and Catherine. It was, if I could just say it was tremendous content. I don't think you will see a more substantive discussion of this stuff anywhere else. I mean certainly not on cnbc. Like it is quite good. Go look it up. It is interesting that the head of Netflix went to meet with the President of the United States and then a few hours later announced we're out, we're not going to try to do this thing anymore. It looks to me like we live in a command economy. Call it socialism, call it communism, call it chronic, I don't know what we call it but it is no different, like really no different than how the, how business works in China.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
Where the, you know, Chairman Xi will say yes, this company now wins. That company which is doing very well. You guys are done, stop doing that. And that's how it works in America. Now is that a problem for anybody? Do we listen to?
Sarah Longwell
I think it's a problem for a
JVL
lot of people yelling about he's a socialist.
Sarah Longwell
You sure don't. You do not have to listen to Republicans. And this is actually, I think this, this goes for all things. There are ideas that can still be good and bad. There are things that can still be true and false. And it's possible that Republicans may sometimes stumble upon the ideas that I think are true or the ideas that I think are good. But nobody should ever at this point, after what we've seen, not until there is entire generational turnover in the Republican Party do we need to take anything they say about capitalism, about the debt, about morality, character, none of that should be taken seriously at all.
JVL
Yeah, it's very bad. I feel bad for Anderson Cooper who walked away from a ton of money at CBS because he didn't want to work for Barry Weiss and said he was just going to focus on a CNN show and two weeks later, oh, can't get away from Barry Weiss. Oops.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I don't know that it's just
JVL
about kind of sucks.
Sarah Longwell
I know you get wrapped around the axle about Barry, and I understand why. I do think that it is much more. To me, it is a bigger. I think sometimes Barry gets to be like the avatar for the anger, which she deserves for basically being a tool in a machine that is taking American media and putting it under the thumb of a regime and doing it while wearing a mask that says, I'm pro free speech beach and I'm pro free markets. Like that we don't have to tell.
JVL
That's why I hate her so much.
Sarah Longwell
Sure. But like, here is. Here is the bigger picture that I don't want to get lost in sort of that, which is whether it is X, formerly Twitter, whether it is Meta, formerly Facebook, whether it is CBS, whether it is now CNN, whether it's TikTok.
JVL
TikTok.
Sarah Longwell
These are not all.
JVL
The president United States forced TikTok to be sold at like an 80% discount to Larry Ellison.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. The Washington Post. Like, guys, it is happening right before our eyes. Is happening right before our eyes. Where what is? And I gotta tell you, I went to a semaphore restoring trust in media event where Brendan Carr spoke.
JVL
Oh, that's where he. That's where he patted Barry on the head and said that CBS News is doing great.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. So I went there.
JVL
Somebody in the Trump administration said that we were doing a great job.
Sarah Longwell
I know.
JVL
What would we think to ourselves?
Sarah Longwell
I know, I know.
JVL
We'd be embarrassed.
Sarah Longwell
We would. We would. I was just watching Brendan Carr and I was watching the room. He was met with not scorn, but sort of like, there's a preposterousness. Like, everybody knows the game. Like, but they all sat there. They. The. All of them. Not all of them, but like, the cars, the Brandon Carr, like, Jackie Heinrich was actually kind of okay. But there's this, like, well, the mainstream media has really failed us and we all agree that, you know, it is bad. And like, the guy from the Washington Post was there and like, it's all
JVL
such a. Matt Murray.
Sarah Longwell
Matt Murray. Yeah, exactly.
JVL
Weasel.
Sarah Longwell
And so we just. This idea that they are still right now trying to act like the problem is that mainstream media is too liberal, is bananas, and they will ride this freaking horse until it's dead. And they own all the new media ecosystems and all the old media ecosystems because that is what's happening, guys.
JVL
And even if they have to kill the businesses to do it, that's the other. Like, you know, it isn't the case that, like, well, they just need you know, it just, it's about dollars and cents. You know, it's not about red and red and blue, Sarah, it's about green. No, these places are choosing to lose more money in order to curry favor with the regime. Yeah, right. It's great.
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JVL
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JVL
All right, so I want to talk to you a little bit about the story of Nurut Amin Shah Alam. I am guessing that you have heard even though you may not remember his name. He is the gentleman from Burma who was here in America. Who was found dead in Buffalo.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
After being released by dhs.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
I just want to get so blind.
Sarah Longwell
He's the guy who was blind.
JVL
Mostly blind. Mostly blind. So the Investigative Post did a long tick tock of how this whole thing happened and I want to read parts of it to you. Not even, I mean, just because I'm angry and I want you to share my anger.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
Because it is not just about dhs. It is about American law enforcement and law enforcement in general. And I. I want to. The reason I'm fixated on this is because somebody said to me after I wrote about Minneapolis that what DHS was doing by releasing people from Whipple in the dead of night without coats or phones, that that should be interpreted as attempted murder. I think that's right. Right. I mean, so just you shove somebody out the front door when it's 4 degrees outside at 2 in the morning and it's only not attempted murder because citizens have decided to stand in the freezing cold and wait in case you do do that to somebody and to then rescue them. That's what it is. And that is what the DHS people in Buffalo did to Mr. Shah Alam. It was attempted murder. They dropped him in the middle of nowhere. And by the way, then they lied about it. I don't know if you caught this, but the initial reports color me shocked. The initial reports were like, yeah, we dropped him at a Tim Hortons. It was safe and warm. And it was only once we got body cam footage that the Tim Hortons was closed. That DHS was like, oh, oh, yeah, no, I guess, whatever. But I want to start back with. So they picked him up at jail. Why was he in jail? Right. And here is why. He was in jail because this gentleman on February 15th went out for a walk. He had been cooped up. He needed a walking stick because he has trouble seeing. So he went to a store and he bought a curtain rod for $20. You can imagine how sturdy a $20 curtain rod is. Right. If I asked you to beat me to death with a $20 curtain rod, could you do it? I don't think so.
Sarah Longwell
No. I can't even get my curtain rod to stay up on the shower.
JVL
Yes. So the weather went bad and I'm just going to read this from the Investigative Post. I'll put a link to it in the show notes. When the weather turned bad, Shah Alam headed for home, but got lost. Shortly before 10:30am he wandered to the backyard of Tracy chacon on the 500 block. Of Tanawanda street, blah, blah, blah. Chacon reported to Buffalo police that Shah Alam had opened her back gate, let her dog out and damaged her shed door with his curtain rod walking stick. Upon arrival, police alleged Shah Alam was, quote, swinging them. This is the curtain, the curtain rod in a menacing manner. And officer Christopher Mordino later wrote he believed Shah Alam intended to hurt police with his curtain rod. So you have this, this mostly blind guy who has gotten lost and wandered into somebody's backyard. And the police show up. Now I'm going to read from the piece. Body camera footage shows an officer arriving at the Ciccone's home, walking down a sidewalk along the side of the house and entering a gate into the backyard. The officer immediately begins shouting at Shah Alam to drop his curtain rod. Put it down. The officer is heard shouting, you're going to get tased. Put it in the snow. Shah Alam can be heard saying, okay. And he lets one end of the rods drop to the ground, though he remains holding the other end. He holds his free hand out in what appears to be an attempt to calm the officer. As officers point their tasers at him, Shah Alam moves closer. They fire and he can be heard speaking runiga, which I think is his native tongue. Shah Alam then raises one rod as to defend himself. The video shows at that point, the officers tackle and attempts to handcuff Shah Alam. Get on the fucking ground. One of the officers shouts repeatedly on the ground. One officer calls Shah Alam a quote, fucking asshole and punches him in the head several times. This is why he was in jail. It isn't because he was importing fentanyl. It isn't because he was stealing or raping, but because he's a blind man in a strange place who got lost. And when the police showed up, the very first thing they do is lose their fucking minds. Because this blind old man, this blind old man is holding a curtain rod and they call him a fucking asshole while they bash him in the head. He goes to jail and is then released from jail, picked up by DHS and dropped off so that he can freeze to death and he dies. And this is a guy who came to America for asylum. I don't quite know what to say except, why isn't there accountability?
Sarah Longwell
Well, we know that part. You know, I think a lot of people remember when was it Adam Serwer wrote the piece the Cruelty is the point. I thought about. I've been thinking about this a lot since we were in Minnesota. And that story is sort of like this. When we were There we could see there was that group that basically stood there for when they would release people, sometimes without coats, without shoes, without socks, little kids without cell phones so that they couldn't contact anyone to come get them. That's cruel enough, but the thing that hap. That always. That sticks with me, and it's like this with the Renee Good and the Alex Preddy killings, is that because there are people there to help, I started dropping them off in the back where the woods are. That's what people were saying, that they would deliberately drop them in a place where they couldn't get the help. Now, and this is in Alex Preddy and Renee Good's killings. The things that I can't let go of. Actually, isn't the killings themselves as horrific as they are. The part that causes me to feel that, like, it's like that. That holocaust feeling. The. Like, how do people do this to each other? Is in both cases, there were people on the scene with medical training who were trying to help, and they wouldn't let them. And the thing that you just said about them releasing him sort of intentionally, like. I don't know that this thing about attempted murder, like, between attempted murder, which I think isn't quite right, and between,
JVL
like, depraved indifference, It's.
Sarah Longwell
It is much more like depraved indifference. Yeah, yeah. Depraved indifference. I think that fits. But. But I was. I was trying to say there's like a. Then. Then there's. Let's say that the maximally best scenario in which we are treating people with. With great kindness and great concern. Let's just say that there's a world, like, oftentimes in America, there's a sort of a middle ground where it's like, no, we make sure nobody's gonna. Like, they're taken care of. Like, you. You have a. You make sure that there's somebody who's gonna pick somebody up when they're let out of prison or. But you don't. You don't let little kids out without coats. Like, that's the part. You don't not let a doctor attend to a woman who is in the front seat, like, taking her last breaths, trying. Who's trying to administer cpr. You don't take an emt, who. So. Cause the woman who Alex Preddy was trying to defend was an EMT who was on the scene. And so she was asking them, after they shot him 10 times, can I go help him? Can I go administer cpr? And they wouldn't let her. And it Is this piece, it is the piece where what we are doing here is being maximally cruel. Just because. And that's the part where I want when you say, like why isn't there accountability? Like sometimes I don't think there's enough accountability. Like, I don't what the level of accountability I want for people treating people like this. Like, have your policy, have your policy applied. But most Americans do not want this. Most Americans, like they couldn't stomach it. They couldn't want to watch it happen. And I don't know, I, the, the only thing this is when you were at the show and you said lock them all up. You know, just, I always sometimes think like, all right, jbl, but this is one of those instances where the people who are letting little kids out in the snow and specifically denying them.
JVL
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
Or then deciding to let them off in the woods so that nobody can help them or who lets this guy out in a snowstorm. Yeah, I'm not, that's not how human, human beings treat each other.
JVL
But, but more to the point, if there isn't accountability, then it will happen again.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I know. I just like, tell me, tell me the, tell me the accountability. Like I sure I want accountability for it. This is, it's not a denial of that. It's just,
JVL
boy howdy, the first thing
Sarah Longwell
you have to do is tell people that it's happening. Like I, when I, when we came back from Minneapolis, I think and I basically told that story about the Wibble building to anyone who would listen to me because I want people to know that that's what they're doing. Because you would not assume, you wouldn't necessarily. People wouldn't assume that in America this is how we're treating people.
JVL
Yeah, it's something else. All right, I got a bigger, bigger question to talk with you about. But I want to do it on the other side and I'm going to tease it. I'll tell people it's about the Kansas law this week revoking the driver's license of trans people. And we'll talk about on the other side. Okay guys, just join. Just join. Come become a memorable work. Plus, we're not CNN there or cbs.
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JVL
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Date: February 28, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller (not present during this recording), Jonathan V. Last ("JVL")
Podcast: The Bulwark — The Next Level
In this episode, Sarah Longwell and JVL tackle several urgent and deep political topics. The discussion is marked by their characteristic analysis and candid banter. Key topics include the rapidly escalating situation with Iran and looming prospects of war, the political drivers and consequences behind it, profound concern over creeping authoritarianism and media consolidation in the U.S. (focusing on recent events at CNN), and a harrowing account of government cruelty in the U.S. immigration and law enforcement system. The hosts interweave current events, policy critique, and empathy, unpacking the headlines with historical perspective and moral clarity.
The hosts are frank, incisive, sometimes bleakly humorous, and always passionate. They move fluidly between analysis, personal experience, statistics, and pointed moral commentary—making this a lively, sometimes bracing listen for those seeking candid, hard-hitting political conversation.
This summary covers the central discussions and main takeaways, capturing the urgent tone and significant arguments made by Sarah Longwell and JVL throughout episode 1059 of The Next Level.