Podcast Summary: The Next Level (Bulwark)

Episode 1062: LIVE REACTION: Trump Doesn’t Understand His Own War
Date: March 10, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Overview

This live episode of The Next Level centers around the Trump administration’s handling of the ongoing conflict with Iran—now widely, yet still ambiguously, referred to as “the war”—and its domestic and geopolitical implications. The hosts dive deep into American public opinion, media complicity/confusion, administrative secrecy and manipulation, Israel’s role and long-term regional repercussions, and the swirling speculation about the 2028 political landscape. As always, the trio’s analyses are punctuated with humor, sharp observations, and some healthy skepticism about America’s political elite.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. The War with Iran: Manipulation, Opacity, and Public Apathy

• Motivation for the Live Format:

  • JVL expresses concern the war with Iran could end abruptly, making any pre-recorded takes obsolete ([01:00]).

• Public Apathy & Confusion:

  • JVL argues most Americans “don’t care” about the war—something he finds distressing ([01:33]).
  • Tim: Chews on the surprisingly muted backlash. “It’s been a little surprising to me...I would have expected a little more” ([01:58]).
  • Sarah challenges this, suggesting people care but are “deliberately confused” by the administration’s actions, notably Trump’s avoidance of overt wartime symbols (“Oval Office speeches, going to Congress...”) to keep the public disengaged ([02:22]).

• Media & Market Manipulation:

  • Trump’s selective communications and use of the press to impact markets are dissected, with Sarah linking Trump’s statements about the war’s sudden end to market rebounds ([03:46]).
  • JVL: “You can see with your eyes what’s happening” regarding military escalation, but notes a lack of public attention ([05:04]).

• American Attention Span:

  • The “price of eggs” as an example: Americans fixate on tangible, daily-life issues, but abstract geopolitics barely registers ([07:36], [07:46]).
  • Tim’s quip on object permanence: “About half of the country does not have object permanence” ([06:47]).

• Manipulated Information Environment:

  • The group discusses the difficulty of informing the public in a landscape where the White House intentionally obfuscates major events or hides key figures (i.e., Jared Kushner's undisclosed, conflicted role as a “Senior Administration Official” in Iran negotiations) ([11:10], [12:05]).

Notable Quote

“You don’t get mad at your dog for not taking his medicine. You cover it with peanut butter to get him to take it. And that is how I think about the world. I think, how do we make people understand, not just get mad at them because they’re not all reading the front page of the New York Times.” — Sarah Longwell ([05:48])

2. Administration Secrecy & Jared Kushner’s Role

• Kushner’s Conflict of Interest:

  • Tim reveals Jared Kushner, not a government employee but with significant Saudi business ties, is referred to as “Senior Administration Official 1” in government briefings—raising ethical concerns ([11:10]).
  • Sarah: “They are not making it available to the American people [that] Jared Kushner is the person who is our main negotiator” ([12:05]).

• Diplomatic Incompetence:

  • Tim exposes the peculiar choice of Trump’s “real estate buddy” and son-in-law with Saudi ties to negotiate with Iran, historically at odds with Saudi Arabia:

    “It’s not really surprising that we ended up with dead Americans and oil prices rising when…the point person…actually is doing side deals with the counterparty’s geopolitical foe” ([14:30]).

3. Media Ethics & Disinformation

• Journalistic Complicity:

  • The hosts debate media responsibility after CBS News simply relayed Trump’s comment that the “war is basically finished” just before markets closed ([16:25]).
  • Tim ponders how journalists should reconcile the duty to report the president’s words with their knowledge that “Trump is full of shit” ([17:49]), leading to the question—should every Trump quote include such context?

• Fog of (Information) War:

  • Uncertainty dominates as journalists struggle to verify official claims (e.g., US military actions, bombing incidents, injury counts), with both the Iranian and US regimes now considered untrustworthy ([30:17], [31:23]).

Memorable Exchange

“It is like we talked about with the Legal system where, like, regular order is over…they wouldn’t actually actively lie, you know, at certain levels. And that’s not the world we’re living in.” — JVL ([31:44])

4. Israel: Generational Rift and Strategic Calculations

([35:02–43:21])

• Diverging American & Israeli Objectives:

  • JVL reads Israeli sources reflecting two camps: Netanyahu aims for regime change in Iran, while the military is skeptical but continues attacks to maximize gains before US withdrawal ([21:11]).
  • Tim thinks Trump’s desire to declare victory does not fit Israel’s longer-term objectives ([22:29]).

• Generational Shift in US Attitudes:

  • Sarah shares insights from focus groups—young Americans, across party lines, increasingly question unconditional support for Israel ([36:20]).
  • On the right, social media discourse among younger Republicans leans toward skepticism of why Israel receives special protection, often tinged with conspiracy thinking ([38:45]).

• Israel’s Use of Trump:

  • Tim: “If I’m [Netanyahu],...I’m going to use this guy Trump for as long as I can. I’ve got this three-year window. We’re going to kill as many of the bad guys around us…”
  • No faith that the US/Iran intervention would abruptly “resolve” strategic problems ([24:29], [26:19]).

Notable Quote

“The thing that they’re not going to be able to take for granted anymore is that generations of Americans are going to come up feeling reflexively defensive on Israel’s behalf because that’s just not there anymore. It is a massive generational shift.” — Sarah Longwell ([36:20])

5. 2028 Election Intrigue & Right-Wing Personalities

([43:21–56:28])

• Rising Stars & Senate Speculation:

  • Discussion of hypothetical Democratic primaries, new faces (Grant Platner in Maine), and how unusual victories might shift national profiles ([43:53]).
  • “There’s going to be room for someone who is an outsider, who is a populist,” notes Tim ([45:27]).

• Trump’s Vice Presidential Shortlist:

  • Trump pits JD Vance and Marco Rubio against each other in public.
  • Tim: “If you think about Trump solely as a megalomaniacal casting director… Marco makes a lot more sense for him” ([49:28]).
  • JD Vance’s “weird politics” and perceived lack of enthusiasm about the war may hurt him as a potential VP ([52:43]).
  • JVL half-jokingly suggests Don Jr. for VP, as the “compromise pick” ([53:32]).

6. Audience Q&A: Policy & Political Landscape

On Oil Prices & Economic Impact

• JVL notes that even after a Trump-induced market rebound, oil futures remain 20% higher than three months ago.

  “You’re going to feel these things…And the big danger…is that the Fed is in a real bind here…. The market is just assuming the rate cuts are coming. And if you’re the Fed, you now have...the inflationary pressure of this oil spike.” ([61:26])

On the “SAVE Act” (Election Integrity/Restriction Bill)

• Sarah explains that Trump has bundled “show ID to vote,” anti-vote by mail, and anti-trans measures into a single “Save America Act” ([67:31]).
• Filibuster poses a huge obstacle in the Senate; bill unlikely to pass soon. Republican states might try to comply quickly if passed ([68:57]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Media & Politicians:
  “People are dumb. Yeah. Like only, I think only like 3 in 4 people are capable of abstract thinking, you know, so like one in four Americans can’t abstract.” — Tim Miller ([08:23])
• On Transparency:
  “This is an administration actively trying to confuse and keep people from knowing what is really going on.” — Sarah Longwell ([13:17])
• On Negotiations:
  “The point person on the negotiation…has no experience, no accountability and who actually is doing side deals with the counterparty’s geopolitical foe?” — Tim Miller ([14:30])
• On Israel’s Long-Game:
  “If you’re Bibi…You know, I’ve got this three-year window. We’re going to kill as many of the bad guys around us…and see where things land in 2029.” — Tim Miller ([26:19])
• On Information Chaos:
  “In any other context, the American President’s response would have been, ‘We don’t know what happened, but we take these things seriously and we’re looking into it.’ And instead…the US President just says no, Iran did it.” — JVL ([31:23])
• On the “Israel Discourse” Generational Problem:
  “Generations of Americans are going to come up feeling reflexively defensive on Israel’s behalf because that’s just not there anymore.” — Sarah Longwell ([36:20])

Timestamps of Important Segments

• [01:00] – Opening: Why go live? War could end anytime.
• [01:33] – American public’s disengagement on the Iran war.
• [02:22] – Sarah on deliberate administration obfuscation.
• [05:04] – JVL: “You can see with your eyes…”
• [08:23] – Tim on American lack of abstract thinking.
• [11:10] – The Jared Kushner “Senior Official” briefing revelation.
• [16:25] – Debate on media’s duty in relaying Trump’s market-moving statements.
• [21:11] – Israeli objectives: regime change vs. military skepticism.
• [36:20] – Generational shift in American attitudes on Israel.
• [49:28] – Trump’s VP drama: JD vs. Marco.
• [61:26] – Q&A: Oil prices, economic fallout, Fed’s conundrum.
• [67:31] – Q&A: The logistics and politics of the Save America Act.

Tone & Style

The conversation remains punchy, irreverent, and skeptical of official narratives, balanced with deep knowledge of American politics and foreign policy. The hosts poke fun at themselves and political elites alike, highlight the absurdities of the current political-media climate, and repeatedly come back to the core issue: Americans aren’t being told the truth, and the press, political elites, and the public are all ensnared in a web of deliberate confusion.

This episode is essential listening for those seeking a brutally honest, often entertaining, “inside baseball” account of where America stands in 2026—caught between war, secrecy, and generational change.