1064: Trump Is About to Own a Disastrous Middle East War | Secret Podcast

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Next Level - “Trump Is About to Own a Disastrous Middle East War” (Ep. 1064)

Host: The Bulwark (Sarah Longwell, JVL [Jonathan V. Last], special mention: Sam Stein)
Date: March 19, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the escalating conflict in the Middle East under a Trump administration, the sudden resignation of controversial figure Joe Kent, and the fracturing dynamics within the Republican coalition. With Sarah Longwell and JVL live in Dallas, they unpack how Democratic messaging, coalition-building, and faith in politics factor into the current moment, all woven together with their signature banter and sharp analysis. The episode is interrupted at the transition to subscriber-only content.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Democratic Messaging and Long-Term Strategy

• Sarah’s Book & Democratic Prospects
  • Sarah discusses themes from her new book, centering on how Democrats need to operate in historically unwinnable areas.
  • She warns about complacency after past successes:
    • “We also did great in 2022… people feeling like, well, we got this… Instead of it being the normal ebb and flow of politics. And the book is about how do you do a root and branch operation on what Trump has unleashed…” (04:27)
  • Emphasizes the longevity of real change:
    • “It's not about one or two elections. You've gotta... It is a long term persuasion game.” (04:52)
  • Discusses future challenges for Democrats given demographic shifts:
    • “In 2030, a lot of people are moving out of California… Even if they win all of these blue wall states, they're still going to have to win in places like North Carolina... It’s just going to get harder.” (05:00)
  • Coalition-building gets a practical mention, specifically referencing Rep. Jasmine Crockett:
    • “Ask Jasmine Crockett to ride hard for him. Because if she does, that will make a big difference…” (06:03)

2. The Search for New Political Archetypes

• JVL presents an idea of fusing traditional faith-centric politics with progressive ideals, referencing Democratic candidate James Talarico:
  • “Isn’t this what the European Christian Democratic parties were like?... Looks like he could be one of the Romney boys, but believes all of the social justice shit. I think that’s interesting… might not work in Vermont, but it could work in Texas. Could work in North Carolina.” (07:09)
  • Sarah adds: faith is an underused lever for Democrats, noting how many left-leaning voters are quietly religious:
    • “The left is gonna have to start talking about faith and having an argument about what it means to be a religious person...” (08:09)
  • JVL jokingly interjects:
    • “So weird. They just want to help people. Well, what sort of Christianity is that?” (08:35)
  • Sarah: “Have that fight, have a fight about Jesus. That's a good fight to have... It’s not about the specific points. It's about a country being like, I don't know. They don't sound like they hate Jesus. They sound like they like Jesus. That's good.” (08:52)

3. The Resignation of Joe Kent & GOP Fractures

• Joe Kent’s resignation as a protest against the Trump administration’s foreign policy shocks everyone, given his extreme right-wing ties.
  • JVL:
    • “Joe Kent, America’s favorite anti-Semite friend of Nick Fuentes and utterly unqualified… turns out to be the one guy in the administration with any principles... Like the meme with the worst person you know just made a good point.” (10:03)
  • Sarah provides a nuanced take, separating Kent’s opposition to foreign wars from his unsavory positions:
    • “He is a griper… big election denier. Nothing good about Joe Kent, say what… The reason now he has this backstory, though… he is deeply against these foreign wars… But he likes to mix it with the anti-semitism. And I'd like to separate the antisemitism from being critical of Israel. Cause those are not the same thing. But, but for him, he's one of those that it's kind of the same thing.” (10:49)
    • “Just because we think that he is correct to resign doesn't mean that there's anything good about why he's doing it.” (13:06)
  • Tulsi Gabbard’s loyalty—or lack thereof—to Trump becomes a topic:
    • Sarah: “She's friends with Meghan McCain. So, that’s a lot of pain.” (14:54)
  • On a possible, deeper GOP split:
    • JVL: “Is there a real split coming? And is it going to be over this war?... Or is this like Taylor Swift? We are never, ever getting back together.” (14:54)
    • Sarah: “If the war stops in a week, it would be... They would figure out how to paper it back over… A lot of it depends on how long it goes on and how bad it gets…” (15:18)

4. The War in the Middle East: How Did We Get Here?

• JVL reveals a new report:
  • “Reuters reported that the White House is considering sending thousands of more troops to reinforce the position because they want to have the option to do boots on the ground.” (16:02)
• Sarah laments the familiar pattern:
  • “...We are sitting on the precipice of are we enmeshed in another quagmire war in the Middle east from a guy who promised no more quagmire wars in the Middle East… We are in a wild moment.” (16:21)
• The war is exposing and deepening fractures within the Republican ranks—the “Republican triangle of doom”—leading to very public fights:
  • “Megyn Kelly is telling Mark Levity has a micro penis on Twitter...” (17:01)
  • JVL dryly: “She retweeted him. She liked. One of Tim's tweets were like, we're not friends. We're not friends right now. Don't like our stuff. We don't want you to like our stuff. What bad choices are we making?” (17:10, 17:22)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• JVL on Sarah’s book and voters:

  • “The forward is JVL being like, look, Sarah's great and she's got a big heart. And you should not fight with the voters. But here are seven examples of how stupid they are.” (02:26)

• Sarah on coalition building:

  • “This is how you build a durable coalition, is by having conversations at the fissure points and figuring out how to move forward together.” (06:10)

• JVL on political archetypes:

  • “Opposite Talarico is Mitt Romney in the streets and Bernie in the sheets.” (06:50)

• Sarah on faith and politics:

  • “Have that fight, have a fight about Jesus. That's a good fight to have... not about the specific points... It's about a country being like, I don't know. They don't sound like they hate Jesus. They sound like they like Jesus. That's good.” (08:52)

• JVL on Joe Kent:

  • “Joe Kent, America’s favorite anti-Semite… turns out to be the one guy in the administration with any principles... Like the meme with the worst person you know just made a good point.” (10:03)

• Sarah on war fatigue:

  • “We are sitting on the precipice of are we enmeshed in another quagmire war in the Middle east from a guy who promised no more quagmire wars...” (16:21)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening Banter and Book Plug: 01:07 – 03:12
• What Democrats Need to Do Next: 03:17 – 06:36
• The James Talarico Archetype (“Normie” with Social Justice Values): 06:36 – 08:09
• Faith and Democratic Messaging: 07:44 – 09:10
• Joe Kent Resignation and GOP Fractures Begin: 09:40 – 15:18
• Escalating Middle East War and Republican Chaos: 15:18 – 17:30

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Tone and Delivery

True to “The Next Level” style, the conversation is fast-moving, brutally honest, and laced with wry humor, self-deprecating asides, and irreverent pop-culture references. Both hosts keep the focus on both immediate events and their long-term implications for American politics, while neither hesitating to critique their own party or opponents.

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Summary

This episode spotlights a potential turning point as Trump edges the US into a new Middle East quagmire. The hosts examine Democratic preparedness, the importance of faith as a political tool, and increasingly bitter infighting on the right. The consensus: America’s political future is being rewritten in real time, and the old rules—about coalition building, religion, and party loyalty—are all up for grabs.

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Transcript

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[JVL]

Hello, everyone. I am JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. Before we get started, quick temperature check. Who has ordered Sarah's book already. Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, that side doesn't look good over there. Don't worry, we'll get you the QR code immediately.

[JVL]

Very much appreciate all of you doing it, please, because again, if we get to a big enough number, I get to moderate a focus group.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, you guys are so sick. It's such a.

[JVL]

And won't these poor unsuspecting flippers be surprised to have the moderator going, what

[Sarah Longwell]

the fuck is your problem?

[JVL]

They'll be like, is this Candid Camera? Am I being punked if I get

[Sarah Longwell]

number one on the New York Times bestseller list? If you make someone cry, I won't intervene. I'm just kidding. I absolutely will intervene. You know, when I decided to write the book, the publisher was like, you know, you're gonna talk about the voters, and you and JVL talk about the voters all the time. Like, should he be involved in some way? And I was like, no, absolutely not. And then I was like, well, obviously people are gonna have some appetite for pushing back on the voters. I hear this a lot. And so I let JVL write the forward, and I shit you not, the forward. Is JVL being like, look, Sarah's great and she's got a Big heart. And you should not fight with the voters. But here are seven examples of how stupid they are.

[JVL]

It's a very effective framing device. All right, so real quick, people who are listening to this now, because you were not with us in Dallas, Tejas, we just went on after James Talarico. What'd you think?

[Sarah Longwell]

What'd you guys think,

[JVL]

Sarah?

[Sarah Longwell]

So the acoustics are not such that we can catch every word back there. They sound a little bit like the Peanuts people when we're back there. I was a little like, wa, wa, wa, but I was catching some of it. And that sounds like a guy who is trying to win in a state that Democrats don't usually win. Almost very rarely. Right. Certainly not at the federal level. And so it is interesting. I don't know if. Were you listening. Yeah, he sounds like a guy.

[JVL]

I listen to Tim Shows.

[Sarah Longwell]

I listen to Tim Shows and I read your Triad. This is becoming a bad bit. I every. We produce a lot for me, baby. Yeah. But here, the thing that is interesting is that guy sounds kind of like he read the book. Like it is all about what are you gonna do to win in places where Democrats are currently not winning. Right. And to think about the fact. Cause one of my fears now, having watched a decade of this turmoil, is that Democrats, I think Democrats are gonna do great in 2026. I don't think there's a ton of question about that. We can get excited about that and that's fine. Go ahead. That's good. But we also did great in 2022. And I think it created a problem of like people feeling like, well, we got this, people are upset. Right. Instead of it being the normal ebb and flow of politics. And the book is about how do you do a root and branch operation on what Trump has unleashed on our politics. And if you're gonna do it right, it's not about one or two elections. You've gotta. It is a long term persuasion game.

[JVL]

And.

[Sarah Longwell]

And you've got to win in some of these places. You know, in 2030, they're going to do the census and a lot of people are moving out of California, out of a lot of places that have given Democrats majorities in Congress. It's going to get harder for Democrats to win. They're going to have to. Even if they win all of these blue wall states, they're still going to have to win in places like North Carolina. Like, it's just going to get harder. And so the. There has to be new types of candidates that are gonna come out and try to make a pitch like people haven't heard before or at least haven't heard in the last 15 years. And he sounds like he's doing it. He sounds like he's internalized that. And the only thing. And this is the big test. And here's something. People are always like, well, what could I do? What could I do to help? Ask Jasmine Crockett to ride hard for him. Because if she does, that will make a big difference. One of the things that I think is scary is when, you know, there's a tough primary and then black voters say, I'm angry. I'm gonna sit out. And this is how you build a durable coalition, is by having conversations at the fissure points and figuring out how to move forward together. And part of that is asking somebody like Jasmine Crockett, who I've met, who I think has some really specific talents that a lot of Democrats also are gonna need. And like, she's gotta bring, like, tell asking her, like, buddy up with him. Go ride with him, campaign with him. That is like, those are the things that you need in this moment that will make a difference. What did you think?

[JVL]

You know, I've been working on a formulation for that guy, and I don't have it quite perfect yet. Remember what you used to say about Glenn Youngkin?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. That he was Mitt Romney. Romney in the streets and Trump in the sheets. I know, I reversed it.

[JVL]

Opposite Talarico is Mitt Romney in the streets and Bernie in the sheets.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's a funny combo for you guys to just, like, be really excited about.

[JVL]

I am very interested in whether or not something. Something like, isn't this what the European Christian Democratic parties were like? You know, somebody who is very faith forward vic codes super Normie, looks like he could be one of the Romney boys, but believes all of the social justice shit. I think that's interesting because I think you could. Again, I don't know if that's gonna work. Might not work in Vermont, but it could work in Texas. Could work in North Carolina. I'm interested. I'd like to see that. I'd like to see us try that flavor out. That's all.

[Sarah Longwell]

I totally agree. And also, one of the things about writing a book about politics is that politics is moving fast. And so, like, I have a whole chapter on the new isolationism of the right.

[JVL]

Oops.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, you know, I'm going to get it back and I might update it a little. Be like. And then they went to war and Republicans were like, no, we're down again. We're happy, we like it. We're here for this. But one of the things I argue about that nobody was talking about. And then he started the conversation. So I was like, the left is gonna have to start talking about faith and having an argument about what it means to be a religious person. Because I talk to Democrats in focus groups all the time. And they are. Lots of them are Christians, are people of faith. All kinds of different faiths. They just don't like weaponize it the way that the right does. And I think that the way.

[JVL]

So weird. They just want to help people. Well, what sort of Christianity is that?

[Sarah Longwell]

But that's the pushback they are getting from the right. The hungry.

[JVL]

Why is Jesus so woke?

[Sarah Longwell]

But like, have that fight, have a fight about Jesus. That's a good fight to have about, you know, that is just like good terrain. Because what it does, it's not about the specific points. It's about a country being like, I don't know. They don't sound like they hate Jesus. They sound like they like Jesus. That's good.

[JVL]

Yeah. All right. We're gonna have a real show now. We're not just gonna talk about your book and we're gonna give the people what they came for, which is zero percent dark jvl. You're getting. You're getting happy. Jvl.

[Sarah Longwell]

Listen, okay, just give them like, because

[JVL]

I got a new pinball machine.

[Sarah Longwell]

What is your darkest thing right now? Just get one out of the way. Because they want it. I heard it in the line. People love dark jbl. I don't encourage it, but do one.

[JVL]

You'll have to wait till we get to the Iran section. We're starting off instead with Joe Kent. Joe Kent, America's favorite anti Semite friend of Nick Fuentes and utterly unqualified to have been director of National Counterterrorism, turns out to be the one guy in the administration with any principles. It's so weird. It's like the meme with the worst person, you know, just made a good point. And we've been. It is weird that we have been saying now for 14 months, how is it that nobody in the Trump administration sees anything that is so outrageous that they have to resign their post? And it turns out the guy who does it is Joe fucking Kent. And then I don't know if you guys saw this, but while you were lining up to come in here, we got an announcement. The FBI is investigating him because he's an enemy of the state. And that's how law enforcement Works in our banana republic. So you do not, under any circumstances have to hand it to Joe Kent. But I kind of hand it to Joe Kent.

[Sarah Longwell]

You don't have to answer it.

[JVL]

Tell me if I'm wrong.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're wrong. I mean, here's what, here's. This is the thing about Joe Kent is he is a griper. He is a guy who employs January 6th insurrectionists and proud boys. He himself was a big election denier. Nothing good about Joe Kent, say what

[JVL]

you will, at least it's an ethos, right?

[Sarah Longwell]

The reason now he has this backstory, though, where he and his wife were both in the military. She was killed in action. And that is clearly, like, something that has affected him deeply. And so, like, there's the like part. There's the him that is an awful guy that we definitely don't have to hand it to. And then there's just sort of trying to pick apart what is happening right now, which is that he is deeply against these foreign wars. Like, for that reason, he also though he likes to mix it with the anti. Semitism and there's the. And I'd like to separate the antisemitism from being critical of Israel. Cause those are not the same thing. But, but for him, he's one of those that it's kind of the same thing. But he was saying that Israel, his statement was blaming Israel for getting America into these wars. That is why his wife died. That is why he's resigning. It's not that you have to say, oh, he's a man of principle. But I think what you can take away from it is that he did have a red line somewhere. He was a person who said, I, I got into this because this is a thing I believed. I believe that America keeps fighting Israel's war. We keep doing these things in the Middle East. And I'm against that. And that makes sense. Tulsi Gabbard, also a terrible person, also terrible politics, also sort of insane. And like, maybe on like Assad's payroll. Like, it is like, very weird. The people who are now running and they've also, they were also shut out of all of this, which is sort of an important point too, when you compare him to Tulsi, though, who after all of the things she said after switching parties to work in this administration, basically is putting out a statement that said, yeah, I'm okay with it. Like, the President's just doing what he wants. Joe Kent is at least walking away. That said, going on Tucker Carlson, then these are all grifters, right? These are all people who are in it for themselves. And so he's now going to run around on a tour to have everybody who is anti war embrace him on the right. And that's fine. I just. Just because we think that he has made that he is correct to resign doesn't mean that there's anything good about why he's doing it. Did I untangle that properly?

[JVL]

Okay, well, let's. Let's spin it forward. Are there more coming? Who else is getting off the boat? Like, is Tulsi gonna stay on this train?

[Sam Stein]

I don't know.

[JVL]

It is weird, isn't it? She's got nothing to do. Nobody trusts her with anything.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, they sent her down.

[JVL]

She hates all the things the administration is doing.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, she went. They sent her down to Georgia to get all the ballots.

[JVL]

No, no, no. I'm sorry. I have this from today's hearing. Senator Mark Warner, Director Gabbard, the whole country knows you recently were involved in an FBI operation to seize ballots in Fulton County. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Tulsi Gabbard, I want to correct one of your statements that you've made multiple times, which is false. I did not participate in a law enforcement activity, nor would I because that does not exist within my authorities. Warner, you were present on the scene. Are those photos of you false, Gabbard? I was at Fulton county, sir, at the request of the president and to work with the FBI. Wait, she just said she wasn't there. It's amazing.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, I guess it's just a matter of, like, what their pain threshold is for humiliation. And her seems quite high. She is friends with Meghan McCain. So

[JVL]

that's a lot of pain. No, but here's what I want to get to. Is there a split coming? Is there a real split coming? And is it going to be over? This war, is it avoidable if the war stops in a week, can you know, or is this like Taylor Swift? We are never, ever getting back together. Like, what is happening?

[Sarah Longwell]

If the war stops in a week, it would be. They would figure out how to paper it back over. I actually think that this was always my thought about this war, was a lot of it depends on how long it goes on and how bad it gets. It will change. I think we are at a very weird moment right now. I don't. Did you guys see the war coming? I didn't see us. I didn't think this was going to happen. Yo. Okay. You saw the war coming.

[JVL]

I mean, we did have a conversation where you said no, but that was

[Sarah Longwell]

when the troops started moving. But I think, like, in terms of when you.

[JVL]

When you were. Like, once the troops started moving, that's. Before that. I didn't.

[Sarah Longwell]

Before that, we weren't all sitting around being like, boy, Trump's probably just going to bomb Iran and, like, get in a land war. And how many troops are they trying to send right now?

[JVL]

We don't know. So this is the other thing that happened while you guys were waiting. Reuters reported that the White House is considering sending thousands of more troops to reinforce the position because they want to have the option to do boots on the ground.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, this is just one of. Look, we don't have to get into.

[JVL]

Oh, come on. You don't want to touch the stove.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, here's the. Okay, the stove touching thing. Here's the problem. You get burned, we all get burned. Terrorists get created. Like, we are in a wild moment where we are sitting on the precipice of are we enmeshed in another quagmire war in the Middle east from a guy who promised no more quagmire wars in the Middle East. And so there are a bunch of things about it that are really interesting happening right now. Number one, it is causing a. In the Republican triangle of doom. What? That's been running real hot because there's no friction point right now. The Dems aren't in charge of everything. So the Republicans are just, like, they're turning on each other. There. There's. Megyn Kelly is telling Mark Levity as a micro penis on Twitter.

[JVL]

Megyn Kelly was approvingly retweeting me today.

[Sarah Longwell]

She. She retweeted him she liked. One of Tim's tweets were like, we're not friends. We're not friends right now. Don't like our stuff. We don't want you to like our stuff. What bad choices are we making?

[JVL]

She's making a lot of sense, that Megyn Kelly. At least she reads the newsletter.

[Sam Stein]

Hey, it's me, Sam Stein. So Sarah and JVL are having a blast in Texas doing these live shows, and I'm stuck here back in Washington, D.C. in the office doing actual work. Someone's got to keep the lights on. They're even making me do this video explaining that you have to be a paid member of the Bulwark to get the rest of this episode of the Secret podcast. But the most important reason to become a paying member is because we can't do everything we do at the Bulwark without your support. As Sarah always says, we give away the vast majority of our content for free because we think it's important. But if you're able to help, please consider doing so.

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