1065: Even Trump’s Cheerleaders Are Saying “Oops”

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Next Level

Episode: 1065 – Even Trump’s Cheerleaders Are Saying “Oops”

Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

Date: March 20, 2026

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Overview

In this episode, Sarah, Tim, and JVL dissect the rapid unraveling of the Trump presidency’s second term, with particular focus on the growing chorus of disillusionment from former Trump supporters, the chaos of the escalating Iran conflict, and the economic and social shocks reverberating across the globe. Through their signature blend of sharp analysis and biting banter, the hosts grapple with the moral, political, and practical fallout of “stove touching” – allowing the nation to feel the consequences of its electoral decisions. The episode is a sometimes-dark but always insightful reckoning with the disastrous state of national and international affairs in Trump’s America, and what could lie ahead for the Republican Party and the country itself.

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Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Trump-Aligned Intellectuals’ “Oops” Moment

Timestamps: 01:57–03:05

• JVL notes a visible change among conservative intellectuals who previously championed Trump, highlighting Christopher Caldwell and Sohrab Ahmari’s recent turnabouts.
  • JVL (02:00): “In the last 48 hours, two of my former friends, Christopher Caldwell and Saurabh Omari, … have all of a sudden gone, oops. And it’s so fucking delicious.”
• Despite their regretful tone, JVL laments they never utter a proper apology:
  • JVL (02:36): “None of them say the two words I want to hear. I’m sorry. My b. I just want to hear it.”
• Sarah references everyday voters who have reconsidered their Trump support:
  • Sarah (02:43): “That lady at the gas station who was like, 'I guess I’m a fucking idiot.' That’s all I want to hear… I’ll forgive you if you just say you’re a fucking idiot on TV.”

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2. The Global Fallout from the Iran War

Timestamps: 03:05–07:45; 09:06–13:59

• Spiraling conflicts:
  • Soaring oil (over $108/barrel) and gas prices, with the global average for gasoline set to hit $4/gallon.
  • Key energy infrastructure destroyed, including Qatar’s LNG field (responsible for 20% of global supply, with 4-5% of world supply lost for years).
  • Israeli strikes, Iranian retaliation, stealth fighter incidents, and mounting chaos.
• The hosts discuss America "touching the stove" — the idea of letting voters experience the direct consequences of their choices, although with mounting concern about how catastrophic those consequences could become.
  • JVL (04:13): “This is the fucking stove. Touch it. Touch it. America.”
  • Tim (07:28): "We do want a modest amount of stove touching. We want people to learn the lesson that hiring these jackasses to run the country is a really bad idea…But the scale of the disaster is getting out of hand."
  • Sarah (09:28): “There’s a reason why I can’t be gleeful about it… I don’t think that people have really – it’s set in for people, like, just how bad things are going to get… this war is by far the worst thing that he has done in the two terms… this is gonna affect everybody’s life.”

Economic Shockwaves

• Disrupted supply chains impact not just fuel but the cost and availability of things like fertilizer and generic drugs (due to blockages in the Strait of Hormuz).
  • JVL (12:08): “Our colleague Katherine Rampel… Generic drug prices gonna go way up. You know why? … a lot of the chemical precursors have to go through the Strait of Hormuz to India, where generic drugs are made.”
  • Sarah (12:24): “Yeah, horrible…”
• Broader global effects:
  • Damage to Latin America, Japan, South Korea, and extensive suffering in Europe.
  • Sarah (13:05): “How do you think Europe’s gonna feel … when they have economic pinches that are all the result of our president’s stupid war in Iran?”

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3. Discussing the Limits and Dangers of “Stove Touching”

Timestamps: 13:59–19:34

• The hosts debate whether national calamity is necessary for Americans to abandon Trump — and just how much devastation might be too much.
  • JVL (15:49): “I’m interested in third degree burns and the house going down in flames… Because a million people died in America from COVID and it wasn’t enough.”
  • Tim (19:13): "Ideally what you would get is enough negative consequences that people see Donald Trump as a failure without the consequences being so catastrophic that America can't recover from them. And I think we're starting to take that risk."
• Anxiety arises about how Trump might react if the economic elite abandon him, given his volatility and penchant for escalation.
  • Sarah (16:40): “How do you think he is gonna react when the precious market tanks, when the economy tanks, when all of his rich buddies…are gonna feel when their funding dries up? Trump is going to… be in the type of corner that I don’t think we want him to be in.”

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4. GOP & MAGA Future: The JD Vance Problem

Timestamps: 26:26–31:31

• Political repercussions for the next generation of MAGA leaders, particularly J.D. Vance, whose aspirations could be dashed by public association with the war.
  • Tim (27:54): “JD Vance needs Donald Trump to…be done as quickly as possible and maybe, like, take over before Donald Trump’s term has ended because otherwise…his star is fading fast.”
• The “America First” faction, the uneasy MAGA coalition, and fractures within GOP over foreign policy.
  • Tim (28:54): “Trump’s heirs, the next generation, they were formed in the fire of Trumpism. Like, this is not going away… even can [Vance] be the heir apparent to Trump, let alone do what Trump did in holding this coalition together?”

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5. Absurdities and Distractions: Coins, Memes, and Ballrooms

Timestamps: 31:38–35:37

• Trump’s vanity projects continue amid crisis: a commemorative 24-karat gold coin, government focus on “banger memes,” and speculative plans for grandiose renovations.
  • JVL (31:59): “The proposal calls for a 24 karat gold coin depicting Trump leaning on a desk with clenched fists…”
  • Sarah (32:32): “Two weeks ago… I’d want Donny Trump focused on the coin and the East Wing renovation… but it doesn’t seem like it’s distracting him. He’s managed to do the coin and destabilize the entire global economy…”
  • Tim (34:07): “He’s going to build all this stuff, and we are… it is going to be fun… when the world has settled on the fact that Donald Trump was an enormous failure… and then we just start tearing it all down.”
• Running joke and serious policy suggestion that Democrats should pledge to physically dismantle Trump’s architectural legacies.

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6. “Are We the Baddies?” – Wrestling With American Identity

Timestamps: 45:05–50:54

• In light of America’s global actions, the hosts grapple with patriotism and what it means to “root for America” when it is acting as “the bad guys.”
  • JVL (45:18): “How are we supposed to root for America when we’re now the baddies?”
  • Sarah (46:58): “How can you make the case that what America is doing is good right now? Like, you really can’t… no, we are. We're bad. And it’s hard to deal.”
  • Tim (48:25): “[We must] draw the contrast between what we are doing right now and who we are supposed to be… my hope… is that because Trump shows us who we don’t want to be, America rediscovers what it does want to be in contrast.”
  • Tim invokes Bill Clinton (49:15): “There is nothing wrong with America that can't be cured by what is right with America.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sarah, on the costs of Trump’s war:
  • “This war is by far the worst thing that he has done in the two terms. And that includes the COVID response. The insurrection... But for regular people’s lives… this is gonna affect everybody’s life.” (09:28)
• JVL, on the lack of genuine MAGA repentance:
  • “None of them say the two words I want to hear. I’m sorry.” (02:36)
• Tim, on the risks of letting disaster play out:
  • “We might be moving into a new, protracted, totally destabilized Middle East… the people who are running the country both lie to us at every turn…” (07:46)
• Sarah, on the new head of Homeland Security:
  • “Marquane Mullen. He’s three and oh. In MMA in the Tulsa Semi Pro MMA League… he’s gonna be in there making sure the tourists don’t do anything to us. So that’s good.” (23:12)
• JVL, on COVID and American priorities:
  • “A million people died in America from COVID and it wasn’t enough. Because three years later, two years later, the country was like, yeah, sure, let’s try this shit again.” (15:49)
• Sarah, confronting American actions:
  • “I want us to fuck it up because we deserve it, and then hopefully we can earn people’s trust back. But… we are. We’re bad. And it’s hard to deal.” (47:56)
• Tim, optimistic but wary:
  • “One of my big, fervent hopes in this moment is that because Trump shows us who we don’t want to be, that America rediscovers what it does want to be in contrast.” (49:40)

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Segment Highlights & Timestamps

• 01:57–03:01: Trump’s former intellectual cheerleaders’ sudden regrets
• 03:05–07:45: Breakdown of global economic and military fallout
• 09:28–13:59: Ripple effects on the economy, global supply, and U.S. society
• 15:49–19:34: Philosophical debate over necessary scale of “stove touching” pain
• 26:26–31:31: What becomes of MAGA next – The J.D. Vance dilemma
• 31:38–35:37: Trump’s distraction projects and fantasies, reflections on future detoxification
• 45:05–50:54: Wrestling with patriotism and national self-perception amid wrongdoing

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Tone and Style

The hosts maintain their irreverent, candid tone, leveraging gallows humor and direct, unsparing language. They seamlessly pivot from policy analysis to inside jokes and personal anecdotes, making the gravity of current events digestible but never trivialized. There’s a palpable undercurrent of frustration and dark optimism, notably from Sarah and Tim, contrasted against JVL’s provocatively doomsaying posture.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode of The Next Level is a bracing, funny, and at times bleak reckoning with the magnitude of current crises spawned by the Trump administration. The hosts blend alarm, sarcasm, and weary hope, exposing the shifting moods among Trump’s former allies and the broader electorate, while wrestling with what it means to love a country veering so starkly off course. From oil shocks and meme propaganda to the uncertain futures of would-be Trump heirs, they leave listeners with hard questions about accountability, patriotism, and the possibility of recovery once the “stove” has burned the nation’s hand deeply enough to learn — but hopefully not to destroy.

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Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

I'm concerned about nuclear annihilation. And you're like, well.

[Tim Miller]

And JBL's like, that'll teach them. Maybe they'll. Then they'll have really found out. Maybe, maybe, just maybe.

[Sarah Longwell]

Just one little bum. Hello, Austin.

[Jay JVL]

I'm Jay jvl here with my best friend Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwarks. Yeah,

[Tim Miller]

yeah.

[Jay JVL]

So last night's show in Dallas was great. I was no Xanax. Super nice and happy. Light side jvl. Not tonight,

[Tim Miller]

you guys. He saved Dark JVL for you. That's like so nice.

[Jay JVL]

So, okay, so listen, here's the deal. The war is not going great, but there are some silver linings. In the last 48 hours, two of my former friends, Christopher Caldwell and Saurabh Omari, who spent the last decade fluffing Donald Trump, have all of a sudden gone, oops. And it's so fucking delicious. Sorry, I've just.

[Sarah Longwell]

They texted you to apologize.

[Jay JVL]

No, it's funny. And there are pieces in which they now say, boy, this is horrible. How could this. This is the worst thing any president has ever done. None of them say the two words I want to hear. I'm sorry. My b. I just want to hear it.

[Sarah Longwell]

But what about that lady at the gas station who was like, I guess I'm a fucking idiot. I guess I'm a fucking idiot. That's all I want to hear. That's right. She's forgiven, by the way. Three Donald Trump vot. And I'll forgive you if you just say you're a fucking idiot on tv. That's all I ask. It's a.

[Tim Miller]

She's from central Pennsylvania.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, yeah. Integrity.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Jay JVL]

Has anybody out there heard from Ross Douthen? What do we think the timeline is on when he flips on Trump? Do we think more than a week? Less than a week. Okay, so here are just a couple things that have happened in the last 48 hours. Price of oil settled in about $108 a barrel. Now from that scene in landman.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Jay JVL]

Is 108 the sweet spot or.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, you're aiming for 60 to 90. At 90, they're still printing money in Midland, so they're still doing pretty good out there in the permian basin. Above 90, things start to get expensive for everybody.

[Jay JVL]

What if you're like, say, 20% above 90 and still rising?

[Sarah Longwell]

Not great.

[Jay JVL]

Not great.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, you guys, we were on the bus today driving from Dallas to here, and Tim just kept looking out the window, being like, where is Landsman?

[Sarah Longwell]

Where is the Landman? I just want to see an oil rig. I want to see Tommy Lee's cute son with his teeth. That's all.

[Jay JVL]

Okay, so. So we are at $3.90 a gallon nationally on the average. $4 will be the national average next week. Take that to the bank. No, this is good. You know why? This is the fucking stove. Touch it. Touch it. America. Donald Trump is mulling sending ground troops due to an amphibious invasion of either Carg island or the Iranian coastline. It's more stove touching. We embrace this. The Pentagon has said they want $200 billion. Iran may have hit one of our fifth generation stealth fighters today. Did you guys catch that?

[Sarah Longwell]

I did, yeah.

[Jay JVL]

Yeah, that's great.

[Tim Miller]

That's bad. Stop saying it like it's great.

[Jay JVL]

Oh, no, no, I'm sorry. I know. I meant it was bad. Yeah, I meant it was bad. And then we had this thing happen where Israel targeted the South Pars field, which you guys may or may not know is the largest natural gas field in the world. Donald Trump said first that he had no idea that the Israelis were going to do this, and then was like, of course I knew it all. I knew it so bigly and very strong. And the Iranians retaliated by hitting the liquid natural gas field. Where is this Ros Laffen? In Qatar, which. So help me with the math. This field in Qatar is responsible for 20% of the entire supply of global. Globally, of liquid natural gas. And so far, they think that 20% of that field's capacity is offline for probably about five years. So 20% of 20% means that in an afternoon, we lost 5, 4% of the global supply of liquid natural gas.

[Sarah Longwell]

Think how much Demi Moore is going to make from this. And Landman, though. I mean, she is going to be printing.

[Tim Miller]

Is Demi Moore in? Landman? Yeah, I might watch that show now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Great.

[Jay JVL]

Stay on point. Wired in.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're in Texas, so I'm just saying it's really bad for the whole global economy. Like, pretty much everybody around the world is going to really be suffering from this, whether it be gas prices or food prices. But there are, like, 87 people in Texas that are really going to crush it, including Demi Moore's character and Landman.

[Jay JVL]

So, I mean, we were talking a little bit about this on the buzz. I look at all of this, and I wouldn't say that I'm gleeful. That's the wrong word. But I do feel as though this is a. A learning moment for our countrymen, for our nation, and so I welcome it. I'm Ron Burgundy. Discuss.

[Tim Miller]

Don't cheer for that. Don't cheer.

[Sarah Longwell]

He's your best friend. You. You go.

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Here's the thing.

[Tim Miller]

We do want a modest amount of stove touching. We want people to learn the lesson that hiring these jackasses to run the country is a really bad idea. I do think if we get sucked Into World War 3 as a result, and I genuinely mean like a pro. I was trying to say this at

[Guest Speaker (Wine Sponsor)]

Dallas last night, too.

[Tim Miller]

I wasn't trying to. I said it. We could be sitting right now on the precipice of an entirely new world. You do have to sit with it for a second, and it doesn't feel like your average kind of volley of political content. It is. We might be moving into a new, protracted, totally destabilized Middle east, while we're also maybe going to invade Cuba and have installed a new dictator in Venezuela. And the people who are running the country both lie to us at every turn about everything. So we're not getting reliable information. And I mean, energy prices, which is how you kicked it off, is like, it could be just the beginning. We don't know where this is gonna go. And so there. When I think about stove touching, which I got nominally for in the Trump 2024, it was more like, can we slip into just a bit of a recession? And people feel like, ah, that was A bad choice. And Trump gets down to, you know, the bush line at 32%. And then, you know, Democrats can win and everybody looks like it is a failed experiment. Like, we could be moving into a place where we have a destabilized economy, a destabilized global order. And like Donald Trump, by the time he leaves, you've got to elect a Democrat to like, clean up everything and we're at war. And so that is not my preferred mode of stove touching.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I think it's worse than that, actually, quite a bit. First, I just need to just bring voice to the fact that JBL just chugged a Diet Pepsi in the most animalistic way that I've ever seen you drink. I mean, that was unbelievable. Housed an entire 20 ounce diet Pepsi in one swig.

[Jay JVL]

Isn't that how everybody does it?

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, I needed that joke before I got dark. There's a reason why I can't be gleeful about it. And there's a part of me, obviously, that enjoys the stove touching, enjoys watching people be like, you know, I fucked up on this one. There is a part of me that enjoys that. But I don't think that people have really. I don't think it's really set in for people, like, just how bad things are going to get and things are about to be. And I think that this war is by far the worst thing that he has done in the two terms. And that includes the COVID response. The insurrection, I guess, was worse for the democracy and like, historically worse, probably it will be the thing that people remember. But for regular people's lives, unless you were binging Newsmax and it's like a Clockwork Orange way, binging Newsmax, like a lot of, you know, or the cops that were protecting the Capitol, like, for a lot of people, the January 6th just didn't really affect their lives. This is gonna affect everybody's life. And as I said, here and around the world. And I just, I think that there's a sense that Trump has wriggled his way out of a lot of jams, you know, and that a lot of people like us. I even feel this way watching my friends on Ms. I was actually texting with Chris Hayes about this earlier. It's like, you know, it's like we were wrong in 16. Like, all of us thought Hillary were going to win. A lot of people thought Trump could win in 2024, but like, deep down we're like, really? These fucking people are going to vote for him again. Like, really? You know, and Venezuela thought was going to be a shit show. And, you know, the economy felt like it's been teetering his whole term. And so there's like, a lot of these things have been happening where people are like, I don't want to be the guy that's out there saying, like, this is a catastrophe. This is the thing that's gonna finally get Trump. Like, you know, you don't. People don't want to be that person. Right? Because you don't want to feel embarrassed and be wrong. And, like, he's proven people wrong. Like, I never handed Trump anything. But you have to admit that, like, this thing, this thing is fucked. Like, he could quit tomorrow and that would be good because fewer lives would be lost. But, like, yeah, it would be good. But the economic consequences, this are spiraling out of control. I mean, like, I. If you listen to any people that are, like, experts in various niches, you know, I know jbl, like, nerds out on the reading I do on the listing on podcasts, like, I was listening to, like, fertilizer reports and, you know, and stuff. And it's like, you know, people who are farmers right now that are deciding, like, which crops to plant soybeans are corn. Like, this thing is going to ripple out economically across the entire economy.

[Jay JVL]

Do you want to hear a new one?

[Sarah Longwell]

Please give me one.

[Jay JVL]

So our colleague Katherine Rampel just published a piece about this one. Yeah, she's awesome, right? Generic drug prices gonna go way up. You know why? Because a lot of the chemical precursors have to go through the Strait of Hormuz to India, where generic drugs are made.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Horrible. So there are all these things.

[Jay JVL]

Oh, right. Horrible. Sorry. That was horrible.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, they're all these things.

[Jay JVL]

Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

And then. So that's just the economic consequences. And I think that the economic consequences are worse than people really are understanding. And a lot of that is because even Wall street, the market, you've talked about this a lot. Like, there's this irrational, exuberant, he'll taco and it'll come back. It's not like it's going to be a bad year economically. And then geopolitically, Bob Kagan was so good on this, talking to Bill. It's like, in the Middle east, things are fucked. Qatar was giving a press conference today, and they were like, what the fuck is happening? This is bad for us. It's bad for Iran, it's bad for the U.S. it's only good for Israel. Like, that's what the countries were saying.

[Jay JVL]

Good for somebody.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And Europe, like, the gas like J.D. vance, that fucking piece of shit with his recessed profile yesterday was like bragging about how, like, yeah, costs are going up here a little bit, but not as bad as Europe. How do you think Europe's gonna feel? How do you think Japan is gonna feel and South Korea's gonna feel when they have economic pinches that are all the result of our president's stupid war in Iran like that? They're gonna be very upset about that. There are gas fields blowing up not just in Qatar but in Bahrain. Israel was bombing Beirut right now. Saudi got hit today. Like, the thing is spiraling out of control and it is hurting people all around the world and it is only gonna get worse. And all that can be done right now. There is no good outcome. Like, there is no positive outcome. Like, all that can be done is they stanch the bleeding and we have minor economic, you know, minor economic consequences on the scale of what is possible.

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[Jay JVL]

I like to think of myself as a generous person, sort of.

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[Jay JVL]

But hear me out. So Sarah, I think because she's a good person, would like somebody to touch the stove in the way that you're like, oh, I gotta put some ice on that, and you get a little blister. I'm interested in third degree burns and the house going down in flames because. No, no, let me tell you why. Because a million people died in America from COVID and it wasn't enough. Because three years later, two years later, the country was like, yeah, sure, let's try this shit again. Like, maybe it has to get really catastrophic in order. Like if Covid wasn't enough, okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

But here's the other side of that. He's still president for how many more years? I've lost track of time. How much longer it's left.

[Tim Miller]

It's three. It's just under three.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's just under three dot Great. How do you think he is gonna react when the precious market tanks, when the economy tanks, when all of his rich buddies that were were sidling up to him and rubbing his belly and being like, you're so great because you're cutting the regulations on our AI right now? How are those guys going to feel when their funding dries up from their pals in the Middle east and the mullahs, because they don't have any. Like Trump is going to. Is could actually, you know, be in the type of corner that I don't think we want him to be in. Like where the downside risks, like the long tail, negative risks are.

[Jay JVL]

Let me, let me continue again. I just want to keep making my case.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I know. But I do want to just say that this is not a good thing. This is not a good thing, right?

[Jay JVL]

No, no, I don't mean that it's good. No, no, no, no, no, no.

[Tim Miller]

I don't mean this is. This is not a good thing to say about Americans. But I think it is a true thing, which is the million people that died of co in Covid does not stack up. Like that matters less to them than if their energy prices and the prices of all the goods related to that go up. Like that will have more of an impact on how people think about Donald Trump than Covid. Just as a true matter.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, because it touched gay America. Yeah, I guess

[Jay JVL]

a disaster in Iran also probably. I am a little bit.

[Sarah Longwell]

I thought I was doing my best to bring this crowd down. I thought the whole, the whole thing is. I was like, I'm very dark about the situation. I'm catastrophizing right now. It's 9 11. And I was thinking to myself, this is the moment to bring everyone down into the dirt. Okay. And then we'll build you back up by the end of the show. But yeah, I can't phase you. I can't phase you right now. I was about to like, we are on the. I'm concerned about nuclear annihilation. And you're like, well.

[Tim Miller]

And JBL's like, that'll teach them. Maybe they'll. Then they'll have really found out.

[Sarah Longwell]

Maybe, maybe, just maybe just one little bomby bomb.

[Jay JVL]

You know that scene in the Dark Knight where the Joker is sitting on a pile of money and he sets it on fire? I would also say this. One of my long tail concerns has been the senior officer corps in the United States military deciding that they could be on Donald Trump's side in any potential future coup. I think this Iran adventure probably makes them less interested in supporting him. Yeah, right. Another again, silver linings everywhere.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I mean the thing, look, you can't properly calibrate these things, but ideally what you would get is enough negative consequences that people see Donald Trump as a failure without the consequences being so catastrophic that like the America can't recover from them. And I think we're starting to take that risk. Yeah, I know you are.

[Jay JVL]

All right, we're teetering. One more, one more, one more thing, one more thing. Six weeks from now, eight weeks from now, Elon Musk is going to do his IPO for SpaceX. What if that is happening at the moment? The global economy is going into the toilet and Elon's last bid to become a trillionaire gets fucked on the side of it. Do I have you now?

[Sarah Longwell]

You've got my attention. You've got my attention. I do think that space fuel is going to be pretty expensive. I think that the input costs are probably going up for space fuel for Elon and Jeff Bezos.

[Tim Miller]

All right, so space fuel.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, I assume that their little penis rockets take fuel. They're not. Are they solar powered?

[Jay JVL]

Not Jeff.

[Tim Miller]

I think they're electric.

[Sarah Longwell]

They're solar powered.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know.

[Sarah Longwell]

All right, so how do you fuel the rockets? Do we have any rocket scientists in the room? It's space fuel. That's what I thought. Not a single rocket scientist. There are 1100 of you. Not one rocket scientist in the room. Could you phone a friend? Oxygen, kerosene, does that go through the Strait of Hormuz? Does that go through the Strait of Hormuz? Do we know?

[Jay JVL]

All right, listen, I don't want you guys to think that I'm all dark, okay? Because there was.

[Tim Miller]

Where would they get that idea?

[Jay JVL]

There was a great piece in Politico today where we had some really good news on the war coming from inside the White House.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know if you guys saw this.

[Jay JVL]

Pete Hegseth said, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump. Thank you.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's great.

[Jay JVL]

A senior administration official said to Politico over a four day period, the videos that we put out had over 3 billion impressions. That blows away anything we've ever done in the second term. Polls show that a lot of young people are actually somewhat supportive of this war and our goal is to deliver content to them. That's a real thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

That is a real quote. Who said that A second is a.

[Jay JVL]

Senior administration officials.

[Sarah Longwell]

They gave the. Politico gave them anonymity to talk about their.

[Jay JVL]

Here is a second view, their Twitter

[Sarah Longwell]

views, their meme engagement. That's anonymity.

[Jay JVL]

A second anonymous official in the White House said, we're over here just grinding away on banger memes, dude. So our government is killing it on social

[Tim Miller]

media.

[Sarah Longwell]

I've got some negative feedback about my le barbecue content today, by the way. I just want to say. So they're beating us on that. The content engagement is good. That's not great. That's not really.

[Jay JVL]

What, did I break you, Tim?

[Sarah Longwell]

Kind of. And it feels like we should have some more serious people in charge of the war in Iran.

[Jay JVL]

I disagree. This is who the people voted for. This is what they voted for. They voted for banger memes. Banger memes 2024. I saw that bumper sticker.

[Sarah Longwell]

The good news is one of the of all the negative consequences I listed about the war in Iran, economic, geopolitical, et cetera. One thing we didn't mention is increased terror threat at home. But there is a kind of a good silver lining on that.

[Jay JVL]

Yeah, right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Which is we have a new head of Homeland Security who's going to be a little more serious about looking into threats at home. Marquane Mullen. He's three and oh. In MMA in the Tulsa Semi Pro MMA League, he had one victory over a 19 year old when he was 29. And then he had another two victories over a gentleman who is named like Rowdy Piper or something. Won an 11 career. One in 11. So he's going to be in there making sure the tourists don't do anything to us. So that's good.

[Tim Miller]

Do you know that he didn't get the vote of Rand Paul because he told Rand Paul he laughed about him getting beaten up, said he deserved it when he got assaulted and got his ribs broken. But don't worry guys, don't cheer for that. Yeah, even though Rand Paul voted against him, John Fetterman bailed him out.

[Jay JVL]

I was wrong.

[Tim Miller]

Hand up accountability.

[Jay JVL]

See, Saurabh could say it. All right, other good news from the

[Sarah Longwell]

war, the independence, John Fetterman, jvl.

[Jay JVL]

I mean he did have a stroke that is like.

[Sarah Longwell]

And it does. It does tell us something that when somebody strokes out and they lose half of their brain power, they immediately get very maga.

[Tim Miller]

Hey guys, it's been a long winter, right?

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[Tim Miller]

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[Jay JVL]

Okay, I'm sorry Last piece of war. Last piece.

[Tim Miller]

Did you just come up with that? I've never heard you say that.

[Sarah Longwell]

I keep a couple in my back pocket.

[Jay JVL]

Last piece of war. Silver lining. I mean, J.D. vance is fucked, right? So would either of you, like, somebody

[Sarah Longwell]

leaked to the post that JD's like, reconsidering the 2020?

[Jay JVL]

Oh, I sure did see that. So I would ask you guys as political professionals, if you were playing his hand, what would you do?

[Tim Miller]

I mean, this is. I would probably spike Donald Trump's Diet Cokes with Drano. Only if I'm him, not if I'm me, because I would never do that. But if you're him. JD Vance needs Donald Trump to like, be done as quickly as possible and maybe like, take over before Donald Trump's term has ended because otherwise his it is fading fast for him. In part. I like this look, first of all, hold on, I'm just going to launch into a quick one here. All right, so here's the thing about the future of the Republican Party. This is book material. Many of you guys advance on the book, but a lot of.

[Sarah Longwell]

What book are you referring to?

[Tim Miller]

Quick Plug.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is there a book you're referring to?

[Jay JVL]

Pre order it? Did everybody pre order it?

[Sarah Longwell]

What book are we talking about?

[Tim Miller]

Is there how to Eat an Elephant one voter at a time? Yeah, my book. I got tired of signing your books at these things and had to write my own. But a lot of part, a lot of it is about, like, what does the future of the Republican Party look like? Because it is definitely not going back. You'd be surprised how many people I'm in rooms with who think like, well, Republicans will get beat in like, the new, A new normal party is just going to rise out of the ashes. And I'm like, have you seen the Nazi text messages from the 25 year olds? I'm sorry, they're actually like 45. But the point is, like Trump's heirs, the next generation, they were formed in the fire of Trumpism. Like, this is not going away. And J.D. vance had sort of a lock on the fact that he was able to fuse what is the MAGA establishment and the America first, right? He can't do that now credibly, like, he has endorsed this war. And when you see the polls that say MAGA, 100% for this war, they are with Donald Trump. That's true, because that's the cult. That is the part that says you put on the red hat and you're in the big tent. But actually 25% of Trump voters are opposed to the war. 17% of Republicans are opposed to the war. Now, those people, I suspect, are the America First Tucker Carlson wing. But that wing's about to have some juice, and there is about to be a big crack up over Israel, over. Over this war in Iran. And so, like, actually, it is really scrambling what the future of the GOP looks like. It is not clear now that somebody, I mean, even can be the heir apparent to Trump, let alone do what Trump did in holding this coalition together.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm glad you did a rant because it's very painful for me to get inside the head of JD Vance, the most repellent person that I've ever encountered in my entire life. And so, you know, it's kind of like, what's that?

[Jay JVL]

Worse than Rick Grinnell?

[Sarah Longwell]

Worse than Rick Grinnell.

[Jay JVL]

Wow.

[Sarah Longwell]

Low bar. He has. He's never threatened to hit me. I mean, Rick wasn't really threatening to hit me. Like, come on. But, you know, he was getting pretty hot under the collar. But it's kind of psychological torture to think, what would you do if you were J.D. vance? But I had a few moments to think about it, and I think he has no choice but to side all up to Trump. And here's why. And here's the good part. Here's the delicious part, which is the psychological torture of being J.D. vance, and that is that he can't break. You know, I mean, if you think about the conundrum that. And I know we all hate to do this, I'll go over it very fast. The conundrum that Kamala Harris was in, whether how to separate from Joe Biden. It was hard for her. She didn't know what to do. She was loyal. But also, Joe Biden didn't really like it anytime she tried to distance from her. And there's reports that he'd call her and be like, why are you doing this? Okay, so that was very challenging for her. But it was Joe Biden. I mean, he was like, in Delaware. He's in her home with beach, like, eating ice cream most of the time. Right. It's not like he was on Twitter shitposting her, but it was still challenging. If you're J.D. vance and Donald Trump is alive on this mortal coil, and he is bleeding on his social media feed like, you can't move an inch. Like, he has no choice. Like, he is in, baby, you're in for a penny, in for a pound with Donald Trump. And so I don't. I don't think he has any option because If JD tries to do the cute thing where he's like, well, you know, I was in the Situation Room saying that this was gonna be a disaster, but I'm so loyal. Donald Trump will come down on him and he'll move over to little Marco and his big ears in two seconds. And so I think JD's stuck.

[Jay JVL]

Oh, I love that for him. You know what I always say, the greatest delicacy in life is when bad

[Tim Miller]

things happen to bad people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. All right.

[Jay JVL]

I had some fun things to talk about. Did you guys see that the Federal Arts Commission approved the Trump commemorative gold coin today? Sorry. Let me read from the news release. The proposal.

[Sarah Longwell]

How far along is. How far down is the jump off of the stage? Could I survive that, do you think?

[Jay JVL]

The proposal calls for a 24 karat gold coin depicting Trump leaning on a desk with clenched fists. Such gold coins from the US Mint typically sell for several thousand dollars. A Mint official told the panel that Trump had personally approved the design. This is different from the $1 coin that he's also going to put his face on. Any thoughts? Wow. Okay. Moving right along.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, really, here's the thing. Here's the thought I would have had two weeks ago. Can we do an imaginary time travel thought two weeks ago? Great. I want Donny Trump focused on the coin and the East Wing renovation and the new marble armrests at the Kennedy center that we're gonna fucking bulldoze the second we take office again, you know, in the Arc de Trump, which we're gonna take down. Like, college kids take down a goalpost after they win a football game. Like, just focus. That's what I would have said two weeks ago, but, like, it doesn't seem like he's distracting him. He's managed to do the coin and destabilize the entire global economy and do a stupid war in the Middle east, and so it's hard to find joy. It's an ugly coin. I will say it's very poorly designed. He's doing. Have you seen it yet? It's like it's him standing behind the nest doing this.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know. I was thinking. I was trying to think about it, like, could I take up smelting? And we just, like, smelting. Smelting. Yeah, we smelt these down and then we. We turned them into, like, I don't know, weapons of some kind we could use against them later. I don't know. I don't know what the answer is. I do know that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do we have any smelters out there. Does anybody know anything about smelting? I'm intrigued.

[Guest Speaker (Wine Sponsor)]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I was excited to use the word smelting. I don't have a lot beyond that. I will say nobody's gonna have enough money to buy coins after he wrecks the economy, so.

[Jay JVL]

Oh, that's great. Maybe Peter Thiel.

[Tim Miller]

Do you know what, though? We are guys, this is. I think. I do think he's going to build all of this stuff because he's so afraid psychologically of, like, going to hell and dying without, like, a real legacy, and he's going to build all this stuff, and we are. It is going to be fun. Like, think about 10 years from now when the entire world has settled on the fact that Donald Trump was an enormous failure, one of the worst figures to ever be in American politics, and then we just start tearing it all down. That's going to be fun. That's going to be healing for America.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like the Saddam statue.

[Jay JVL]

Do we get to. Do we get to tear down the ballroom?

[Tim Miller]

Absolutely.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, that is different. That is. This is an old fight. This is an old fight. You said Democrats should run on tearing down.

[Jay JVL]

Never said that. Never said no.

[Tim Miller]

What I said was, I will find the triad.

[Jay JVL]

What I said was any Democrat who isn't willing to do that is disqualified from running for president. Right. Any Democrat.

[Tim Miller]

Look, where are they supposed to. How are they going to put. They're going to say they're going to run on that, then that would they. If you're saying they've disqualified. You're like, I'm gonna think it should

[Jay JVL]

be on the website. Like it shouldn't. If you're Gavin 20, 28. It doesn't have to be first thing on the. About us. I will tear down. I'm just saying that if. But maybe if I as a reporter, ask Gavin Newsom. So you get elected, you're gonna tear that fucking thing down. Gavin's answer better be shit. Yeah. Anybody who says, well, I don't. I want to look forward, not back. Fuck you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. We could tear down the ballroom, but, like, these morons in Oklahoma are gonna name the Tulsa airport after him. So we can't go to Tulsa anymore. Is Tulsa nice? Have you all been there? Guess I won't ever be able to go to Tulsa, probably. So that's gonna be the problem. You can get Highways in Alabama. Hey, y', all, if you've been listening to the show for a while, you know how much I Love Soul's out of office beverages. The gummies are more of a Bill Crystal thing. I'm a soul's out of office beverage man, but now they've got a new product which I'm excited to tell you about. The Mood Gummies. If you're anything like me, day and night routines are not always the same. Whether it's doom scrolling to keep you up or occasionally a hangover to keep you down, there's a lot that can throw you off your rhythm. And something that you might turn to is these Mood gummies. Soul is a wellness man that makes delicious hemp drive, CBD and THC products designed to make feeling good simple. Sol's new mood gummies have precise dose, including ingredients and formulations designed for predictable effects, so you can choose how you want to feel while staying in control. If you're looking for a bright social energizing buzz, I mean, this isn't me, but right now we're at the live show, so that might be a good fit. You go with the uplift gummies. When it's time to wind down, the mellow gummies deliver 3mg of indica THC plus CBN, ideal for a cozy night and fully unplug in. And if you're looking for the just right anytime vibe, Soul's balance gummies give you an easy, versatile feel. Perfect when you listen to your favorite podcast. Three moods, three intentionally crafted formulas, same great tastes. Whatever the moment, there's a soul mood gummy to match. Make today a good day and get yourself some soul gummies. Right now. Soul's offering my audience 30% off your entire order. Go to getsol.com and use the code thenextlevel. That's getsol.com promo code. Thenextlevel for 30% off.

[Jay JVL]

Every. Every third high school in the south is going to be named after Donald Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think. Is there. So Jefferson Davis county here in Texas? I think there is, yeah. That is wild, you guys.

[Tim Miller]

This is why the Bush line matters, though. I'm telling you, if he is down phrasing.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, we get below it. No, I want to hit the water table line.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, that's fine.

[Sarah Longwell]

The Bush line keep going down.

[Tim Miller]

This is important. If he leaves office at 26%, no one's going to name shit after him. They're just not.

[Jay JVL]

Okay, listen, we got to keep going. Got to keep going.

[Sarah Longwell]

So you're also rooting for economic calamity, then JVL won you over?

[Tim Miller]

I think I explained this perfectly before. I'm calibrated between, you know, without terrible harm coming to the American people.

[Jay JVL]

But get some ice. And it's just a, just a blister. That's what Sarah wants. Put some Neosporin on it. Right.

[Tim Miller]

I don't want the skin to be hanging off and like need surgery.

[Jay JVL]

That's what I want. The burn unit. Okay. Good news about the ufc.

[Sarah Longwell]

The crypto market is crashing. That's good. Oh, sorry.

[Jay JVL]

The UFC fight at the White House is no longer going to be on America's birthday.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thank you.

[Jay JVL]

It's not going to be on Donald Trump's birthday. It is going to be broadcast on David Ellison's CBS

[Sarah Longwell]

exclusively.

[Jay JVL]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

The White House MMA fight is going to be broadcast on cbs.

[Jay JVL]

Uh huh.

[Sarah Longwell]

While we're doing minor, you know, little, little pieces of joy, little piece of schadenfreude. Have you checked out the CBS Evening News ratings lately?

[Jay JVL]

Oh, why yes, I have.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Jay JVL]

Why don't you tell the people?

[Sarah Longwell]

Do you know who was on the CBS Evening News before Tony D. Dickerson. It was Dickerson and Marce Dubois. Something Dubois. Anyway, nobody wants that. The ratings are worse. They've gone down, they're going down from there.

[Jay JVL]

But it's about regaining the trust of viewers, Tim.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's kind of, when you think about it, bad for the world, bad for all of us. But there's something that is a little satisfying about the fact that they were like, you know what? We're going to put somebody in charge of CBS News that is an unapologetic Middle east warmonger. And they have two things that they care, three things they care about. They don't like woke. They're soft supporters of Donald Trump and they love bombing people in the Middle east and like putting that person in charge for pro war propaganda. Right. Like literally the month before Donald Trump starts the stupidest Middle east war imaginable is kind of delicious. And you can watch Tony D. Have to try to spin it and be like, well, these things are going bad, but you know, 780 bombs landed today, so that's kind of nice to watch them suffer through that.

[Jay JVL]

All right, last thing on the UFC fight, then we're move on.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure. When is Donald Trump's birthday? I got to figure out.

[Jay JVL]

It's like June 14th.

[Sarah Longwell]

Trying to schedule my vacation.

[Jay JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, so you're asking them like, you guys all committed to memory when Donald Trump's birthday is? Because you love to send him presents.

[Jay JVL]

New. So the, the headline, the main event of this fight is a Mark Wayne

[Tim Miller]

Mullen

[Jay JVL]

is a Georgian, like Soviet Georgian fighter against an American guy, and the American guy's going to get his ass kicked. And so it's perfect that, like, you

[Sarah Longwell]

know, the commie guy is going to jobber thing, though. I don't kind of like how I took the fall for Kinzinger in the Cuckoff. Maybe the Georgia guy will take the fall.

[Jay JVL]

All right, last thing on this.

[Sarah Longwell]

On this.

[Jay JVL]

Did anybody see the Pearl harbor stuff today?

[Tim Miller]

Oh, so there's just a guy in the audience screaming just like the guttural sheep.

[Jay JVL]

Same brother, same.

[Sarah Longwell]

We have an audience participation segment coming, and I would like to find you, sir. So when that starts, do the guttural scream again. So I know how to find you.

[Jay JVL]

Sanae Takeichi, the conservative prime minister of Japan, was visiting with Donald Trump, and he was asked about why didn't he warn our allies in Japan about the Iranian war? I'm going to try to do my Trump. We didn't tell anybody about it because we wanted a surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Okay, why don't you tell me about Pearl Harbor? Okay. Right. You believe in surprise? I think so. Much more than us. This is a real thing. Those are the words he said. I now will read to you from the New York Times. As Mr. Trump spoke, Ms. Taikichi widened her eyes and appeared to take a deep breath. She kept her arms crossed in her lap and did not speak. So we got that going for us.

[Sarah Longwell]

She wants, like, a maga Japanese gal. So, like, you get what you signed up in the lie in the bed you made, lady. But the one kind of thing that I don't think people are focusing on enough about this moment, because everybody's focused about the embarrassment and how Trump is bringing shame on the country. But we've been doing that for 10 years. We know that. It's embarrassing for me. I was stuck on the fact that. Does he think that the Pearl harbor sneak attack went well?

[Tim Miller]

That's funny that that's what you thought, because my whole thing was like, he keeps saying, why didn't you call me about Pearl Harbor? And I keep being like, were you president during Pearl Harbor Harbor? Like, is that where we are now?

[Sarah Longwell]

He was alive. I think she wasn't.

[Tim Miller]

But why would she call him?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

Why would anyone call him about Pearl Harbor?

[Sarah Longwell]

They were attacking us. I guess Pearl harbor kind of magnificently backfired, though. I do. I just think that's important to think about.

[Tim Miller]

Also, I'm not sure we want to be doing Pearl Harbors everywhere to people.

[Sarah Longwell]

I. I don't I don't think so. I thought Donald Trump also said, I

[Jay JVL]

mean, maybe our thing will also be catastrophic and wind up as a disaster. Like for all of us.

[Sarah Longwell]

Seems likely. Hopefully we don't get nuked.

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[Jay JVL]

Can I ask a real question?

[Sarah Longwell]

You guys love America? That's okay. We can make a Nagasaki joke. Okay. It's been 80 years. All right, you can. A hush fell over the crowd when I did that.

[Jay JVL]

How are we supposed to root for America when we're now the baddies?

[Sarah Longwell]

That's a good transition from Nagasaki, I guess.

[Jay JVL]

No, I'm serious.

[Tim Miller]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do I have to?

[Tim Miller]

I can answer this.

[Jay JVL]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

Should I go first so you can be positive? Are you going to be. Are you going to say we should root for us?

[Tim Miller]

I mean, I've got an answer, but you do your thing and I'll do mine.

[Sarah Longwell]

I am not right. I can't. I don't think I was rooting for the Canadians in the hockey match. I was very disappointed.

[Jay JVL]

And let me set this up.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was disappointed that we lost the hockey match. We being the Canadians. I've been to Canada three times.

[Jay JVL]

Today the Financial Times reported something previously unreported, which is that in January, when the Danes sent troops to Greenland. Do you remember this? So Danes sent a small unit of their version of the Marines to Greenland, and today it was reported that they came with explosives and blood to do transfusions because they just believed, okay, so we're going to wind up in a shooting war with America, and we got to be able to blow up the airfield, and then we got to be able to do transfusions when our guys get shot by the Americans. This is. The rest of the world is making plans, including deploying troops, assuming that we're going to attack them, our allies. I read this, and I see the President making fun of the Japanese prime minister in Pearl harbor and all this other shit, and I just think, wait a minute. How we're supposed to be rooting for America? We are the bad guys now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I don't. Sarah, I'm hoping that you can give something positive. I said I was gonna go dark at 9. 11. I didn't know you were gonna ask me this question later. But it's really hard, honestly, because I think about, you know, and we've all got young kids, some of JBL's kids are here, and it's like, how can you make the case that what America is doing is good right now? Like, you really can't. Like, you really can't. And. And that's challenging. And it's challenging to think about these assholes that are the Trump fluffers, try to bully us over this and be like, you're rooting against America. You're not a patriot. And it's like, no, what they're doing right now is not patriotic. What they are doing is trampling on what the country is supposed to be about. But also, the country is what it is. You know what I mean? Like, the country is what's on the piece of paper in the Declaration, too. But the country is also what we are doing. You can't just pretend that's not part of the country. And I don't know. I'm not running for office. I'm trying to get Adam to run again, but I'm not. So I can say I'm like, I'm not rooting for us. I want us to fuck it up because we deserve it. And then hopefully we can earn people's trust back. But. But, yeah, no, we are. We're bad. And it's. It's it. It's hard to deal.

[Jay JVL]

Told you I was taking this to the dark place tonight.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, this. I mean, this is. It's a good, fair conversation to have. I think I try to do a little bit of what you just. Not that you conflated it, but I do try to disaggregate what America is supposed to stand for, who we're supposed to be, the things we were founded on, versus what we're doing right now. And I think that part of our job as patriotic Americans is to draw the contrast between what we are doing right now and who we are supposed to be and who we are and what we were founded to be. And Bill Clinton, he's not like my favorite guy in the world, but I will say he has one of my favorite quotations, which is, there is nothing wrong with America that can't be cured about what is right with America. And so I think a lot about, like, okay, well, how do we. It's. Sometimes people want to, like, blow everything up. And what do we need to be exact, you know, new and transformative? And I believe that it is a transformative moment. But I also think a lot of in the transformation, we should go back to the thing that made us who we are to begin with, with the awareness of what has happened over the last 250 years. Like, there's something wild about the fact that it is the 250th anniversary of America right now. And so, like, it's a good time, actually, for us. To my hope. One of my big, fervent hopes in this moment is that because Trump shows us who we don't want to be, that America rediscovers what it does want to be in contrast. And so I don't want to say, like, we're the bad guys as much as I want to say we are doing bad things and perverting all of the things we said we were supposed to stand for, which started with the Republican Party abandoning everything that it was supposed to stand for. And now it is happening to us as a country. I mean, the big I always think about the first Trump administration was about the Republican Party sort of dying in the face of Trump. But the second Trump term has been changing America. It has been America withering in the face of Trump because it's not just the institution of Congress. It is our media companies, it is law firms, it's universities. Like, the things that we're supposed to hold the line, a lot of them are failing. It is a moment of deep cowardice and a very sort of scary time. But I do think that, like, if we were to figure if we were to fix it, it would be by saying that we were recommitting to the thing that made us who we are in the first place.

[Jay JVL]

All right.

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