The Next Level – Episode 1066: “How Much Pain Before MAGA Turns on Trump?”
The Bulwark | March 24, 2026
Episode Overview
In this week’s episode, hosts Jonathan V. Last (JVL), Tim Miller, and special guest Sam Stein (sitting in for Sarah Longwell) dissect the political and real-world consequences of Trump’s ongoing war with Iran. They delve into the administration’s lack of clear objectives, the economic pain being felt by ordinary Americans, and whether these mounting costs will finally cause Trump’s MAGA base to turn on him. The conversation weaves in and out of war strategy, economic stress, internal administration dysfunction, and the changing landscape of conservative politics. Along the way, the hosts touch on polling data, the role of conservative think tanks, and new faces in upcoming races.
Major Discussion Points & Insights
1. Administration’s Miscalculation and Strategic Confusion
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Absence of Clear Goals: The hosts agree that the Trump administration entered the war with Iran without a coherent plan or endgame, resulting in shifting objectives and chaotic decision-making.
- Sam Stein (04:07): “The administration wildly misjudged what would happen... they are now several weeks into this, still searching for some sort of coherent plan and rationalization for what they’re doing.”
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Objective Drift and Negotiation Dilemmas: Analysis of how previous decapitation strikes and back-channel diplomacy have made it even harder to achieve a diplomatic settlement with Iranian leaders, given their justified paranoia about negotiations being a trap.
- JVL (16:02): “You’ve shown the Iranians that you will use negotiations as ways to kill their leadership. You need their leadership to get a negotiated settlement... it becomes hard to have these conversations..."
2. Military Tactics and Geopolitical Realities
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Escalation Without Endgame: The deployment of U.S. troops and fixation on degrading the Iranian navy is viewed as performative and disconnected from the really relevant threat—Iran’s drone capacity.
- Tim Miller (05:52): “This fucking Middle East war for about nothing that he has. He can’t explain what it’s for... We're degrading Iran ships. Like that’s really the end goal? Who cares how many ships Iran has?”
- JVL (08:11): “Why are we talking about the Iranian navy when what matters is their drone strike capability?”
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Iran’s Proof of Concept: The hosts echo the idea that Iran has now proven it can shut the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies and inflicting economic pain.
- JVL (09:58): “This has been a proof of concept for Iranian strategic defense for 47 years... Well, now they can, right? They’ve demonstrated the proof of concept works.”
3. Economic Fallout and Political Consequences
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Gas Prices and Market Volatility: Gas and diesel prices have skyrocketed, the stock market is unstable, and the pain is starting to filter down to average Americans.
- Sam Stein (14:36): “Our gas prices are astronomically higher than they were a month ago... The stock market [is] significantly lower. I mean, we are being... propped up by the tiniest of little stools by AI and five, seven AI companies.”
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Market and Political Resilience: Uncertainty persists about whether markets and political commentators are underestimating just how bad things could get, given Trump’s history of “wriggling out” of crises.
- Tim Miller (13:32): "There’s the old tweet about how Donnie Trump will wriggle his way out of this one. And I think that the markets, political commentators... don’t want to bet against him because maybe he’ll taco tomorrow."
4. Will the MAGA Base Turn on Trump?
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Testing MAGA’s Pain Tolerance: Open debate on whether sustained economic pain (high gas prices, disrupted travel, prolonged war) will finally dent Trump’s core support, especially among non-diehard MAGA voters.
- Tim Miller (21:07): “I don’t think the 90% of the MAGA folks are going to stay with him... Eventually that pain does matter. Like, eventually people will suffer enough...”
- Sam Stein (25:27): “During the spring and summer of 2020... his approval rating in Wisconsin never dipped this low. I just want to be clear about that.”
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Polling Warnings: They reference the latest Marquette University Law poll showing Trump at -14 (the lowest in both his terms) in Wisconsin—possibly a sign of waning support, though not catastrophic yet.
- Sam Stein (23:03): “Trump’s net approval rating is -14, which is, quote, the lowest net approval figure for him in his two terms as president.”
5. Functionality of MAGA Governance & Negotiation
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Trump’s Ability to Sell Any Deal: Trump could embrace an Obama-style deal with Iran, brand it as a “win,” and have MAGA supporters rally behind it—something Democrats could never get away with.
- Sam Stein (19:30): “Trump benefits so much... he can just present his voters with Obama-on-steroids deal for the Iranians and tell them it’s a great deal and only he could cut it and MAGA would support it 95% across the board.”
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Chaotic Messaging & Internal Dysfunction: Referencing Trump’s public statements as evidence of a government in chaos: “The leaders left. We don’t know who the leaders are, but we’re talking to somebody.” (Tim Miller paraphrasing Trump at 46:09)
6. Conservative (MAGA) Think Tank Scene
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Misnomer of ‘MAGA Think Tank’: Lively commentary on the emergence of new MAGA think tanks and the disconnect between ideology and transactional politics.
- JVL (49:43): “What we have is... people who saw Trump come in and decided, I can build an ideological framework around this. And 10 years in, they’re still trying to do that, even though Trumpism is whatever Trump says it is at any moment.”
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Think Tanks as Grift Machines: Extensive discussion of how ideological incoherence allows “MAGA think tanks” to act as pay-to-play outfits, adjusting their policy stances for donors.
- Tim Miller (51:32): “Because there isn’t really a coherent policy worldview around MAGA... it leaves this huge opening for groups like this to be bought off.”
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Project 2025 – A (Partial) Success?: Mixed analysis of Project 2025 as a think tank led initiative, its effectiveness in kneecapping the administrative state, and the long-term impacts to the federal workforce.
- Sam Stein (57:26): “As just a wrecking ball enterprise, not a deficit reduction enterprise, DOGE was remarkably successful... that’s 315,000 federal employees gone.”
7. Pop Culture, Campaigns, and Political Media
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Texas, Talarico, and Culture Wars: Reflection on the Talarico interview’s impact and whether Democrats can balance turnout-driving progressive messaging with the need to win over swing voters, especially in big states like Texas.
- Tim Miller (61:41): “You have this tough balance... you got to, like, persuade some people and juice turnout. And that’s a challenging thing.”
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Right-Wing Media as Enabler of Conspiracies: The bizarre Joe Kent media tour and proliferation of conspiracy theories within the mainstream right, including outlandish claims around the Charlie Kirk case.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Dissecting the War Rationale
- Tim Miller (05:52): “Could he do something dumb like that? Yeah, but like this fucking Middle East war for about nothing that he has… we're degrading Iran ships… Who cares how many ships Iran has?”
- Iran’s “Victory”
- Sam Stein (11:06): “The Iranians have really benefited... they essentially, I mean early this week, called his bluff. They said if you attack our power plants, we’re going to attack desalination plants across the region. And Trump backed away. And I think for Iran that’s the victory…”
- Predicting Economic Pain
- Sam Stein (14:36): “Our gas prices are astronomically higher than they were a month ago... The stock market significantly lower.”
- Polling Reality Check
- Sam Stein (23:03): “Trump’s net approval rating is -14, which is, quote, the lowest net approval figure for him in his two terms as president.”
- On MAGA’s Loyalty
- Tim Miller (21:07): “Eventually that pain does matter. Like, eventually people will suffer enough...”
- On MAGA Deal-Making
- Sam Stein (19:30): “He can just present his voters with Obama-on-steroids deal for the Iranians and tell them it’s a great deal and only he could cut it and MAGA would support it 95% across the board.”
- Philosophy of MAGA Think Tanks
- Tim Miller (51:32): “...it leaves this huge opening for groups like this to be bought off… these guys, like, they can’t be against immigration, deportations, right? Like now they can be on any side of the war... it’s a blank slate, baby.”
- War, Gas Prices, and Political Spin
- JVL (48:11): “[Trump] sets their house on fire and then it burns for a year. And then he comes and he puts the fire out and says, ‘Hey, you want to give me a medal? I put that fire out for you.’”
Key Timestamps
- 02:16 – Tim explains why writing a book is “fucking annoying” and why he wants Sarah focused on Bulwark work
- 03:39 – “War temperature check” and troop deployment rumors
- 05:16 – Tim and Sam rail against the war’s stupidity and lack of purpose
- 09:58 – Proof of concept: Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz
- 14:36 – Market shocks, economic damage, and underappreciated risks
- 16:02 – Logistical impossibility of a quick diplomatic resolution with Iran
- 19:30 – “Trump benefits so much … can just present his voters with Obama-on-steroids deal”
- 23:03 – New Wisconsin poll shows Trump at lowest ever approval
- 25:27 – Comparison to 2020 and COVID crisis, why this might hurt Trump more
- 32:11 – Mark Levin–Joe Kent interview and right-wing media’s conspiratorial spiral
- 36:43 – ICE, masks, and “test run” for use of government agencies on Election Day
- 41:07 – Satirical recap of Trump administration’s jumbled reports on Iran negotiations
- 45:31 – Trump’s “gift” from Iran: more meandering, incoherent messaging
- 49:43 – MAGA think tank ecosystem and why policy is for sale
- 54:19 – “Success” and limitations of Project 2025 and attempts to kneecap government
- 61:41 – Talarico interview fallout and implications for Texas’ political future
- 65:17 – Discussion of NYT’s Greg Bevino (former top immigration official) profile and the normalization of extremist language
Tone & Style
- Bantering, sometimes snarky, but deeply informed; hosts combine gallows humor (“the funnniest and also worst timeline,” JBL at 34:11) with analytical rigor and personal frustration about the state of policy, politics, and media.
- Frequent callbacks to personal anecdotes, political history, and a meta-awareness about podcasting and media coverage.
Conclusion
This episode offers an unvarnished, often bleak but lively glimpse into the costs and contradictions of Trump’s Iran war—militarily, economically, and politically. The hosts push back on magical thinking (both in the markets and in political circles) about Trump’s ability to deliver a costless win, warning that genuine pain may finally catch up with MAGA loyalty. Alongside, the team exposes the transactional nature of the “America First” policy world, all while keeping a sharp, riotously sardonic tone that makes the chaos of 2026 a little easier to swallow.