1074: Tucker Carlson’s “Regret” Is Just Another Scam

Summary

Podcast Summary — The Next Level #1074: “Tucker Carlson’s ‘Regret’ Is Just Another Scam”

Date: April 21, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)
Podcast: The Next Level, The Bulwark

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Episode Overview

This episode explores current fractures within the conservative movement, centered on Tucker Carlson’s recent public “regret” regarding Donald Trump, and the larger schisms between the MAGA establishment, “America First” influencers, and GOP elites. The hosts break down the authenticity of public apologies from influential conservatives, the potential political maneuvering behind Carlson and others' seeming “change of heart,” and preview looming fights over the GOP’s 2028 presidential succession and the country's lurching Iran conflict. The episode is marked by the usual wit, sharp analysis, inside jokes, and pointed banter among the hosts.

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Key Segments & Insights

[02:26] Tucker Carlson’s “Regret”: Real Contrition or Political Angling?

• Summary: The hosts listen to and analyze a recent segment featuring Tucker Carlson and his brother Buckley expressing regret over their support for Trump.

  • Notably, Buckley admits, “I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people... It was not intentional.” ([05:02])

• JVL’s View: JVL is cautiously optimistic, highlighting that this is a much stronger mea culpa than what establishment conservatives have offered:

  “This is so much more than we will ever hear from responsible types in conservatism. You will never hear the Wall Street Journal editorial page say something like that. … This is all we ask for.” ([06:41], [07:19])

• Sarah’s Skepticism:

  “He said he was wrong. He didn’t say we were right. Which is, which is really what we want to hear.” ([07:31])

• Tim’s Cynicism: Tim frames Carlson as a “con man” seeking to manipulate discourse for personal gain, not out of genuine reflection:

  “Tucker is a charlatan, though, and a liar and a con man. I won’t be sucked into his con. … He’s a very talented con man, but he’s a con man.” ([08:07]) “If I would hear that from anybody who I thought was speaking the truth... Tucker is not somebody like that. Tucker is on an angle.” ([09:28])

• Sarah on Carlson’s Motive: Asserts Carlson is positioning himself as the post-Trump leader for aggrieved “America First” types breaking away from Trump over the Iran war.

  “Right. This whole not in anger but in sorrow at Trump is the splintering of the America first types moving in their direction of, like, he betrayed us… And Tucker wants to lead that army.” ([09:37])

[10:44] The MAGA Establishment vs. America First Split

• Insight: The hosts articulate an ongoing split within the right: MAGA “establishment” types like Mike Johnson and Rubio, and the “America First” rebels (Tucker, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc.).
• Tim notes the “shame” it should bring the establishment that even opportunists like Carlson are more openly critical of Trump than they are.

[12:36] Political Fallout: Vance, Tucker’s Kid, and 2028 GOP Futures

• Tucker’s kid resigning is discussed as a signal of the current realignment’s seriousness.
• Vance (JD), once straddling factions, is now painted as unable to balance both sides due to these rifts.

[18:04] Can Trump Run for a Third Term? The Don Jr. Succession Theory

• JVL’s Contention: Floats the possibility that Trump (against all rules) may stage a 2028 run, or if not, anoint Don Jr. as heir apparent:

  “I think there is still a chance that Trump attempts to run for a third term... If Don Jr. runs, then I don’t think he can be beaten in a primary.” ([18:04])

• Tim’s Disagreement:

  “A potential fallacy of people on the anti-Trump side is that we look at Donald Trump and… we see him as really fucking stupid… They see Junior as kind of his idiot kid.” ([19:39])

  • Argues hardcore supporters view Don Jr. as not the same figure as Trump—he lacks gravitas, intelligence, and respect, even in MAGA circles.

• Sarah’s Analysis:

  • Skeptical that Trump or his base would see Don Jr. as capable:

    “I don’t think Trump respects Don Jr. or Eric. … I would be shocked if Trump thought [Don Jr.] would be anything but embarrassing.” ([25:15])

[34:55] Iran War: Stalemate, Negotiation, and Blame Games

• Current Status: Ongoing conflict, with oil markets roiling and diplomatic standoffs over control of the Strait.

• Comic Relief: The crew jokes about a ship that paid fake Iranian officials in cryptocurrency for passage, only to get attacked anyway.

  “It was like a Nigerian princess.” ([35:29])

• Tim’s Assessment:

  “Trump is more interested in a deal with [Iran]… It is palpable how much Trump wants to get out of this.” ([39:44])

• Sarah’s Counter: While the U.S. has the military upper hand, Trump is unable or unwilling to play that card due to lack of public support for escalation.

[46:24] The Cash Patel Debacle and Government (In)Competence

• Background: Article accuses FBI director Cash Patel of being drunk on the job, sparking a $250M defamation lawsuit from Patel.
• Hosts’ Take: Laughter over the chaos, as Patel panics over a locked computer, imagining himself fired “tweet-fired”, and his Vegas escapades.
• Key Quote:

  “Imagine being the FBI director, though, and just in Vegas and all over DC just getting annihilated drunk…” ([49:45])

• Underlying Worry: JVL asks if it’s sustainable for the country to have “incredibly incompetent people” running federal agencies—raising the specter of impeachment.

[51:49] Impeachment Talk: The Feasibility and the Risks

• Bill Kristol’s View: Bill Kristol is “on an impeachment kick,” arguing the chaos and incompetence reach a threshold requiring impeachment.
• Hosts’ Analysis: Skeptical of the utility—Republican Congress will not act unless political tides turn.
• Tim’s Angle: Only a scandal directly tied to war, public harm, or overt criminality would unite enough votes (which remains highly unlikely).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Carlson’s “Regret”:

  • Tim Miller: “Tucker is a charlatan, though, and a liar and a con man. … He’s a very talented con man, but he’s a con man.” ([08:07])
  • Sarah Longwell: “He said he was wrong. He didn’t say we were right. Which is what we want to hear.” ([07:31])
  • JVL: “This is so much more than we will ever hear from responsible types in conservatism.” ([06:41])

• Don Jr. Succession Theorizing:

  • JVL: “If Don Jr. runs, then I don’t think he can be beaten in a primary.” ([18:04])
  • Sarah Longwell: “Have you seen Don Junior talk? Like, he is covered in cocaine.” ([26:09]) (joking allegation)

• On Current Leadership:

  • Sarah Longwell: “Trump has populated his entire cabinet with incredibly incompetent people. … He thinks he’s going to be fired at any minute.” ([47:25])

• Iran War Analysis:

  • Sarah Longwell: “There are very few serious people in this process. We don’t have good negotiators.” ([38:12])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:26] — Tucker Carlson’s “regret” and hosts’s reactions
• [07:31] — What would a real conservative apology look like?
• [09:37] — Analysis of Carlson’s possible ambitions and the shifting “America First” movement
• [18:04] — JVL’s “Don Jr. succession” and Trump 2028 conjecture
• [25:15] — Debating whether Trump would back Don Jr.
• [34:55] — Update on the Iran war and comic crypto moment
• [46:24] — Cash Patel drunkenness scandal and blowback
• [51:49] — Impeachment talk: feasibility, political reality, and risk of backlash

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Episode Tone & Style

• Casual, comedic banter mixed with sharp political analysis.
• Willingness to name names, call out opportunists, and challenge each others’ logic.
• Moments of levity, especially as the seriousness of the Iran situation grows darker.

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Conclusion

The episode provides a panoramic and irreverent view of today’s right-wing politics—revealing the hollow performance of “regret” by Tucker Carlson, the ongoing cynicism of establishment figures, the Machiavellian jockeying for post-Trump control, and the persistent danger posed by incompetence at the highest levels of government. For listeners who want clarity, humor, and candor about the latest inside conservative politics, this episode delivers.

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For further reference and more deep dives, see additional episodes at The Bulwark

Transcript

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[Sarah Spain]

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[Tim Miller]

Am I showing too much skin? Do we think?

[JVL]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here on the next level with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is. Let's hear it for the boy from Footloose. That's right.

[JVL]

That's right. We got a lot of ground to cover today. So going to be very, very. I was sort of hoping you would give me the. The Ric Flair entrance music. Not let's hear it for the boy. But that's okay. This is temporary belt.

[Tim Miller]

Boy.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's right.

[JVL]

Nearly a temporary belt, A placeholder belt until the final designs have been submitted.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hold it like this. Let me see. Hold it like this.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, that's. Yeah. What is. Talk about what's going to be on the other design?

[JVL]

Well, I mean, clearly it's gonna like the rock. It'll be the people's championship belt because I was the people's. The people's choice.

[Tim Miller]

Were you not chosen by the panel of experts?

[JVL]

No, I was not.

[Tim Miller]

No.

[JVL]

I'm learning a lot about these awards and it turns out they might be a little sketchy. So it turns out that there is a gigantic awards ceremony in New York City and this is done basically to sell tables. I mean, they can't take back my award at this point. I've won, so I can just spill all the secrets to sell tables. And in order to sell tables, they give awards, achievement awards to a bunch of celebs. And so, like, Amy Poehler wins best. Now, I'm sure Amy Poehler's podcast is wonderful, but they're giving it to her because they want Amy Poehler to show up at the.

[Sarah Longwell]

At the fact Amy Poehler's not going to show up at the Webbies.

[Tim Miller]

So are you planning on going? Are you going to get a whole full table? Bring the whole family? I mean, you can fill up a whole table just with lasts. You know, I'm not going to be there. Okay, maybe you should purchase a table for young Bulwark staffers and everybody can get a free trip to New York and they can receive the Webby in your honor.

[JVL]

So what they do is for the people who are. This is like the version of the Oscars where they do the, like, the audio and sound design. And they now have shunted all those things to a separate night. They don't even do them on the same day. The Oscars for people like me, the People's Choice Award winners, we are told that we can give a. We can have a speech that will be projected up on the screen during the ceremony. The text of our speech can be no more than five words.

[Tim Miller]

Have you thought about your five?

[JVL]

I have.

[Sarah Longwell]

Take us home can do it for.

[JVL]

I think it's got to be Fuck Trump. But I. Some part of me thinks they wouldn't.

[Sarah Longwell]

They wouldn't put just like Jesus wept, just two words. That says it all.

[JVL]

Maybe JBL is always right.

[Tim Miller]

Donald Trump. Eat my ass, jbl.

[Sarah Longwell]

Let us congratulate you, though. Our people, and we should say our people show up for things like this. I. When I tweeted that you had won this, there was just genuine rampant enthusiasm for the fact that you pulled this over the line with what I suspect was about 80% of the vote because our people came and put up Saddam like numbers. So congratulations to you, buddy. I'm glad you got.

[JVL]

Thank you. It means a lot. It meant more before last night when I slacked. You guys.

[Tim Miller]

All right, all right, let's move on to the news.

[JVL]

Last night, Tucker had his brother Buckley Carlson on his show for like, the

[Tim Miller]

second time this month. I'm wondering if I. If I'm going to. You're going to know that I'm gonna. That I'm starting to mail in the podcast, you know, in 2029. When you wake up and look at your app on Wednesday and it's like it's my buddy Wade from high school is the guest today, you know, and then it's like my brother Paul is on the show and it's Buckley's been on twice now in the last six weeks. I think spreading insane conspiracy.

[JVL]

Feels like when Buckley's on, that's when you get the real dope maybe.

[Sarah Longwell]

Interesting to note that Tucker's kid actually just resigned his position. Yeah.

[JVL]

Supposedly long planned. So let's. I want to listen to the audio here and then we can talk about it a little bit.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

You and I and everyone else who supported him. You wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. I mean we're implicated in this for sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

It's not enough to say, well I changed my mind or like, oh, this is bad, I'm out. It's like in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.

[Tim Miller]

Yes.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences.

[Tim Miller]

I agree.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

You know, we'll be trauma so by it for a long time. I will be. And I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people in was not intentional. That's all I'll say. But anyway. But the question does present itself immediately. Like what is this? Was this always the plan? You don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but like clearly there were signs of low character.

[Tim Miller]

Oh really?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

But it didn't. There are tons of people of low character who like outperform their character.

[Tim Miller]

It doesn't have to be sort of the norm actually these days.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

I would say I've outperformed my character a lot. Kind of don't have especially high character.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

But you know, you try to. Whatever you try your best. But what was this? Was this always the plan?

[Sarah Longwell]

A lot of plan talk.

[Tim Miller]

Who's to the Jews there. The Jews are coming. In case you didn't pick up on that case any listeners don't have a fine tuned ear for the conspiracy theorizing.

[JVL]

All right, let me just say two things. You guys can react thing. The first is that this is so much more than we will ever hear from responsible types in conservatism. And like you will never hear the Wall Street Journal editorial page say something like that. You will never hear Rich Lowry say something like that. And so should Sting. The second, isn't this all we really want?

[Sarah Longwell]

No, no, absolutely not.

[JVL]

Again, I am simply presenting it for Discussion because I came away from this buoyed and just thinking, this is all. This is all. This is all we ask for.

[Sarah Longwell]

He said he was wrong. He didn't say we were right. Which is. Which is really what we want to hear.

[JVL]

And I'm grappling with my complicity in this, and I was wrong about it all. And I take that seriously.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

That's all I want to hear. That's all I want to hear. Where's Paul? She go on that? I'd like to hear Paul Gigo say that.

[Sarah Longwell]

I want to know if Tim and I are going to go to the same place.

[Tim Miller]

Okay.

[JVL]

I'd like to hear Rich say that.

[Tim Miller]

I would, too. I'd like to hear a lot of people say it. Okay. I have people in my life. I'd like to. We're not gonna do it. We're not gonna go. So I hear you. Tucker is a charlatan, though, and a liar and a con man. Tucker is a con man. And so I just. I won't be sucked into his con. I won't. And like that. And I sat at. And I sat at brunch, and I've had this, you know, if I've had this happen to me once about a million times, had a nickel, I'd be. Have enough money to bet that million dollars against Clay Travis on the gas prices going. Going up. But. And they're like, you know, Tim, I didn't even believe it myself, but I was watching Instagram and I saw a Tucker Carlson post, and I found myself re sharing it on Instagram, and I was like, I couldn't believe it. Here I am sharing Tucker, and I'm over there going, you're doing it. You're doing what he wants. He's tricking you. You're getting conned. Just like the MAGA people got conned. He's. He's a very talented con man, but he's a con man. And I want. If I would hear that from anybody who I thought was speaking the truth. And I think that this is. You can. You can't know. It's in people's hearts. And we all looked at this, and I think I kind of fell more on the JBL side of this in the Marjorie Taylor Greene thing. Like, I looked at her and saw a person that I thought was, like, had a genuine change of heart. Tucker is still. Is a con man that has a podcast, and this is what he's trying to do. So if it's helpful in the short term, whatever. I just wrote a Column about taking yes for an answer from people who want to change their mind. Regular people who have had a change of heart, who have felt betrayed. Tucker is not somebody like that. Tucker is on an angle.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And his angle is that he's going to run for president. Right. This whole thing, this whole not in anger but in sorrow at Trump is the splintering of the America first types moving in their direction of, like, he betrayed us on this and we're gonna need someone else to represent us because Trump betrayed us. And Tucker wants to lead that army and so does Marjorie Taylor Greene. And that's what's happening right now. And it doesn't matter. Like, you can say they can be useful in helping to dislodge the Trump cult, but they are not useful. And I think the next level order, which is, you know, making America a place that we all want to be in. Like, they want to take the worst instincts of Trump's America first stuff, the griper ism so much, and just they want. That's what they want. And so I don't. I don't think we need to. Again, we can say, like, he's right on the overall merits. Probably disagree with him on most of the underlying fundamentals, though.

[Tim Miller]

And I would also say the one thing I will give you jvl, is I do think the fact that Tucker is saying this and Marjorie Taylor Greene and all these terrible people, Candace and Megyn Kelly, I do think it shines a very unflattering mirror onto the National Review crowds, the Republican senators, the Mitch McConnell's of the world, the Mike Johnson's. Right. Like the establishment of the Republican Party, like the fat. It is. Because even if it's not on this issue, because I think the response you might get from somebody like that, a John Thune, like, if you gave them truth serum, would be like, well, why would I sound like Tucker in the Iran war? I'm for the Iran war. I wanted to bomb Iran. But it's like there have been a myriad other issues in which Donald Trump has been an affront to their supposed values, whether it be tariffs or, or stealing the election and trying to end American democracy or whatever. And, like, none of them were this clear about that. And I think that that should shame them that, like, they are of even lower character than Tucker Carlson, who is a fucking lying charlatan. So I would give you that point, but that's the tiniest point I could grant.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I certainly grant the desire to hear that from them, but they are the MAGA establishment. Right. This is the split. The America Firsters and. And the MAGA establishment have reached a crossroads. And we have been watching it for a while on among all the podcasters, but we're seeing it now with the America first types who are like, we wanted something different. We were promised something different. This war in Iran is their breaking point. On top of other things, Epstein, the fact that, you know, Trump's not focusing on the economy, etc. This is their last straw. And so they're going to take their ball and they're going to go do America first things, and that's going to leave the MAGA establishment, which I think still has a lot of juice, but that's where your Mike Johnson's live. That's where your Rubio lives. Vance has always tried to straddle these two, and the war has made it impossible for him to do that, which

[Tim Miller]

is why Tucker's kid leaving is so meaningful. Right? Because it's like Vance's ability to straddle it, like, Tucker was a huge element of that. I keep going back to when Vance was doing this successfully. The one time I complimented his political skills and everybody was making fun of him was back during that TPUSA feud after Kirk died. And it's like, Ben Shapiro goes up on stages. Like, Vance has been great, and Tucker goes up on stages, and Vance has been great. And so he managed to straddle it for that long. But now that's clearly over.

[JVL]

I mean, okay, so I hear what you're both saying, and I, I understand that the. The credibility of the messenger matters,

[Sarah Longwell]

but

[JVL]

at the same time, like, I just. I don't know what more we can ask for. Right. Like, we have, you know, there are people out there who talk for a living, and when they stop lying and they start saying the truth and they. They don't just say the truth in a passive voice. Well, that. How did you guys fall for that? But they. They take ownership of their role in it. I. I just.

[Tim Miller]

That's good.

[JVL]

I think it's good. And in the split between the America Firsters and the manga establishment. I'm sorry, but I think it is better. I think the America Firsters are better for America because you can have. No, listen, though. You can have an actual argument with them because they are saying the things they believe. Right. And so that is a. You know, this is, you know, like, the way to combat speech is with more speech. Like, you can do the. Okay, well, we'll. We'll argue about this, and we will try to persuade Americans because you guys Actually believe that shit. And you're going to go ahead and make your case, and we're going to go ahead and make our case, which is different from what we have seen from so many people who never mean anything they say and are always hiding the football. And that's very, very hard. It's very hard to have that fight.

[Tim Miller]

So this goes to the, like, no true Scotsman side of this argument. Like, is there. Is there actually an earnest America Firster? Like, I'm open to the idea that it's mtg, because she's got it, but, like, Tucker is not okay. Tucker is not right. We saw his emails in the Dominion lawsuit. Like, we saw his texts and emails five years ago. He said that Donald Trump was a demonic force. A demonic force is what he said. And then he became his biggest advocate for becoming President of the United States again. And now I'm supposed to take it seriously when he's like, well, there were signs of low character and, you know, how could we have seen point. How could we have seen this coming? It's like, what do you mean, how could we have seen this coming? You fucking said it. You saw it. You knew it. You're not an idiot. And you decided to place a bet on him because it helped the career, and now you're making a different bet, and tomorrow, if he needs to make another different bet, he'll do that. And by the way, the bet he's making now is a pretty pernicious one that's based a lot on. Not like he will pay lip service like he did in that clip, which is noteworthy to his own mistakes, but, like, where he was going with that is he's pivoting it to, you know, creating the creation of some new nonsense conspiracy theory about how. Oh, well, you know, it wasn't really Trump. Like, he was just manipulated by the industrialists and the Likud Party donors, You

[JVL]

know, donors and neocons is what he. What his line was. Okay, well, we're gonna talk more about Tucker later because Tim wants to beat me up over my contention that. Don't want to beat you, Junior.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think we should go right to this. This is a good topic.

[JVL]

I think we should make that. Make people wait. Why should we give away all the good stuff at the top? Okay, fine, we'll do it. But before we do, Sarah, give us a word from our sponsor.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[JVL]

so on Monday, I wrote a Triad about the 2028 because, you know, I, I just felt like I was getting overtaken by so much Iran news and we'll get to the Iran news in a couple of minutes here. I, I wanted to write about the looming problem of this succession crisis in Maga going to 2028. And my thesis was that I think there is still a chance that Trump attempts to run for a third term. I know you guys don't like that and think it's wrong, but I think it's, it's greater than zero chance.

[Tim Miller]

I agree with that. Greater than zero.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Okay.

[JVL]

Which is notable because it's never been greater than zero in the FDR post. Fdr, right. In the post. FDR post constitutional amendment, it hasn't been greater than zero. And, but then I made the argument that if Don Jr. Runs, then I don't think he can be beaten. And in a primary, I explained why. In a primary. In a primary. So I explained why. And then I explained why from his and his family's perspective, they might want him to run and it might make sense from, from his perspective and from his incentive structure to run. And anyway, I wanted to put that out into the universe just as a marker. And Tim, you said you wanted to clap back on that.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I don't know about clap back. During the live stream last night, one of the viewers asked me what I thought about it and I was like, I kind of disagree with them. Let's just do it tomorrow together on tnl.

[JVL]

I should say this is Sarah's fault because Sarah baited me with this.

[Tim Miller]

How does Sarah bait you with this?

[Sarah Longwell]

I put it in the slack as JBL bait because people have started including him in the polling and he is polling second or third in just about every GOP poll right now and beating

[Tim Miller]

Rudy Rubio and head to head, which I thought was a very interesting fact in that six one and one against Rubio.

[JVL]

No, he's finishing second. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And so that's, that's notable. And I guess, and I also agree with the idea that the Trump family might end up assessing in 2028 that it's best to have a family member in charge of the party still so they can keep grifting. And even if they lose the election, it's like every month you can keep the grift going, the better. And so I understand that rationale. I think my main area of disagreement is that I think that a potential fallacy of people on the anti Trump side is that we look at Donald Trump and we see somebody that is really fucking stupid and we see that accurately. We see him, we think he is very. He's ridiculous. It's a ridiculous choice for him to be the president. He was a fake businessman. He's not smart, he doesn't read books. And so if you look at Donald Trump in that context, then you look at Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr. And you say they're kind of the same. Donald Trump Jr. Is also an idiot who doesn't read books and didn't do any business on his own. But I don't think that's how people that like Donald Trump see Donald Trump like the Republican Party people. I think they see him as a successful president who's smart in ways and surprised the establishment and did sorts of. And they see Junior as kind of his idiot kid. And so I do think there were some members of the cult that would be with him. But I think that Junior is as one standard deviation stupider than his dad. You know, like we've had an insidification has come to the Trump family as well. And I think that that's an important. I think that's an important gap for a certain part of the. You know, I just think that, like the smart people we were talking about earlier, the rich Lowry's, like, you can plausibly get around on Donald Trump. You know, you can tell yourself a story like, man, look at what I. Look at what he did. All his critics are the idiots. He built Trump Tower and blah, blah. And it's like, you, you can't even come up with a story, really, on Doc Jr. He's so dumb.

[JVL]

All right, can I, Can I. Sarah, I'll bring you in in a second. I just wanted to respond to that quickly, though. The first is that I, I would not underestimate Don Jr. Because he was smart enough to understand. Remember that originally, circa 2016, 2017, the idea was Ivanka would be. And that's why Ivanka inserted herself into the White House and was going to learn how the government worked and do policy and try to become popular. And Don Jr. Realized, no, I got to go on Fox and trigger the libs. Well, that's pretty crafty. And he's very good at that. He's like a folk hero to maga. He understood this is. Manga is a lifestyle brand and I need to be the mascot for it. And that, that is an animal cunning. And he's gotten very good at it. And the second thing is, if he runs, I don't think Vance or Rubio can. They saw what happened to Ron DeSantis, and I don't think either of them would be willing to risk that happening to them. And so what you would wind up with is you'd wind up with Don Jr. Running against somebody like maybe Tucker, who is an outsider. And all of those people, like the rich, Larry's the World, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, they will tell themselves, look, Don Jr. I mean, you know, he's, he, he's an idiot. He'll do what he's told. Like, well, you know, we're not going to take our. Take a risk with somebody who actually believes all this shit the way Tucker does, and they'll wind up right back where they are.

[Tim Miller]

I also don't think Don Jr. Believes in himself enough. I think Don Jr. Is happy to be J.D. vance's wingman.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do think that your theory works exceptionally well on paper. Like, I think you're making excellent points about, especially about the incentives around keeping the gravy train going. Because you're right. Trump understood and learned a real lesson from. As long as I remain the head of this party, as long as I maintain control, even If I'm not the nominee, even if I lost last time, I just say I didn't lose, and I keep this gravy train rolling. And just the prospect of me, or in your theory, Don Jr. Coming back to the White House is a reason for all the payola to keep going. Right. For all the people to protect him. If there is the specter hanging out there of Don Jr. Potentially being president of the United States, and they're saying to all their buddies, whether it's the Saudis or whoever, saying, yeah, these idiot Americans, they'll make Don Jr. What are you talking about? I'm the king. I can shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue. Okay. On paper, makes sense. I do think you have a little bit of a succession problem, which is that I don't think Trump respects Don Jr. Or Eric. And so I do think you get a little bit of like, I love you, but you are not serious people, you know, from. From these guys. And I would be shocked if Trump thought. I think he would be embarrassed. And also, I mean, the thing is, Trump did. We all know Fred Trump gave him a big loan or whatever, but he did build his own empire. He also bankrupted a bunch of things, but he's the guy. And so he thinks his kids are clowns. And so I just. I don't know, I sort of.

[Tim Miller]

Logan Royce thought his kids were clowns and then kept power until he couldn't.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yep.

[JVL]

Right. I mean, he thinks Vance is a clown too. This was like, if you're Trump, you are gonna have to leave one way or the other, unless you decide you're gonna try not to leave.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

Which, again, is a non zero chance. And so if, of course, he will think it's all about him. And so what would be the greater monument to himself handing out to JD this weirdo who, like, he's married to a brown lady and, ah, you know, and does this weird Catholic stuff or hand it off to his namesake and then look at me. We're like the Kennedys. I think it is more gratifying to Trump's ego in the case of nf. Now, in a perfect world, he wants to die in office. Right? He wants to be president and never leave on his feet. I think that's what he wants.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's an interesting theory.

[Tim Miller]

You're dismissive. Sarah's face says full dismissiveness.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm not full dismissive. I thought JBL laid out a really strong case. And I think that there's real merit to the idea that they think this way. I mean, part of it is like, have you seen Don junior Talk? Like he is covered in cocaine.

[JVL]

Allegedly.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure. Allegedly covered in cocaine. And his eyes are closed and like

[Tim Miller]

he's not like his stung like a bee. He's been stung by some wasps.

[Sarah Longwell]

For all Trump's flaws, and they are myriad and well picked over on this podcast, he's not. He doesn't drink, he doesn't do drugs. Like, Don Jr. Is like a wreck of a person.

[JVL]

Totally true. Don't deny it. But again, who would be willing to like JD Sitting vice president if Trump says Don's the guy Don's running, is JD Gonna say no?

[Tim Miller]

Marco might, though.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, Marco might. This is what I would grant you, JBL. I will grant you Don Jr. If he decides to run, would present real challenges to the field.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And he would have to have Trump's full, like, the Logan Roy thing problem would be the first step to overcome. He can't have. These are not serious people. Daddy would have to be fully on board.

[JVL]

Has to be fully on.

[Tim Miller]

We're 30 minutes into the podcast and nobody's noted one other complicating factor here. And I kept letting Sarah do it. I kept trying to let Sarah do it, but there was a poll that came out today that showed Donald Trump hitting.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, the Bush line. I did want to. There was a moment where I wanted to say that, and then it. Yeah, but once.

[JVL]

But he's 32.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, 32. He's hit it a couple times now. This was a good poll, but this is. It's happening.

[Tim Miller]

He's hard to pass the baton if he's below the, you know, W line.

[JVL]

Is it within the party? I mean, because, again, well, that.

[Tim Miller]

I know this is kind of the point, I guess, like, how. It depends how far below, et cetera. But I mean, W. But that's part of the reason why the W line matters. Because, you know, and I've said this before on the show, but just Merit's mentioning, like, W wasn't invited to the. To another convention after. Right. And so his numbers went down with Republicans to such a degree that he became toxic even among Republicans. Now, that 32 doesn't quite get you to that level because of the way that things are these days, like Trump's independents and the Democrats numbers are way lower, and so Republicans numbers are higher a little bit still. So. But eventually you reach a point where it's hard to pass the baton even among Republicans.

[Sarah Longwell]

And this is why I did mean to mention this, but I meant to do it during the Tucker segment because you're looking at. Why does Tucker now saying big, big regrets, big regrets. And I think it's because Trump is starting to hit all time lows in the polling and they think he's going to go lower. They think there's a world in which they can pick up a significant part of Trump's base.

[JVL]

I don't think there is. Maybe I can be wrong. I raised this with somebody the other day. I. And I forget who. Maybe it was with Edgar. I have a feeling that the percentage of people who will be like, I was super Maga and now I'm off of it will be about as big as the percentage of Never Trumpers like it. You know, they'll be real. There will be people like that. And if you cobble them all together, they'll make a meaningful block. But not meaningful enough to like do anything electorally.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, they'll be like real Trumpism. They'll be like real maga. Real America first has never been tried.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

And like that's where Tucker comes in.

[JVL]

Right. But I'm saying I don't think that will be. I don't think that will be a terribly meaningfully sized group. I think it may be overrepresented at the elite level from like podcasters in the same way that Never Trumpers were over represented at the level of magazine writers. Because the truth is, like, his supporters are just there for the cult anyway. His supporters are always just backfilling the rationale. They're, you know, they're in it because they hate wars. Then you're in a war and they're like, yeah, I love it when we blow stuff up. That's great. You know, they're in it for. For the tax cut.

[Tim Miller]

This question is a known unknown about the American First. One of the other compelling things you said in the newsletter, which is something I've been noodling over about Tucker as a threat from this, like, America first side is Tucker just has this unending reel of comments that he's made now he's talking all the time on these podcasts. Something that I would ever deal with were I to want to become mayor of New Orleans or something. You have this long history of stuff where Junior is kind of a blank slate in a little project everybody can project. And I do think that what Tucker's doing is positioning right now. It's intentional positioning as America first away from maga. But is he calibrating it exactly right? You know, is he over torquing? Feels like he might be over talking somewhat and like that there's kind of a softer America first critique that would. That would represent, I think, a more legitimate threat to Trump.

[JVL]

Either way, can we agree that JD is screwed or no? Maybe not. Right. If JD's entire game is preventing other people from getting in. Right. If JD can keep other people from getting in, then he can use an officer.

[Sarah Longwell]

So JD is not screwed.

[Tim Miller]

I think he's not screwed. You saw JD was meeting with the Adelsons and singers, and it's like, was he telling Miriam about his opposition to the war? It's interesting. Every time they're leaking to reporters, he's talking about how he's opposed to the war. But when he's meeting with the big donors who are supportive of the war, I don't. I wonder if he's saying the same thing. I don't think he's dead because of the you can't beat somebody with nobody principle. And I just. The Daviel's case, for the reasons that it's laid out on Don Jr are not that compelling. I think that Don Jr is more likely to want to hitch himself to JD Tucker for the reasons we laid out Marco for the fact that he's a former neocon. I just, like, at the end of the day, I think that there's still a chance that JD could be kind of everybody's second choice and be kind of like, standing there holding the bag. I think he is materially harmed by this war, and I think that it's made his job a bunch harder. I think he has demonstrated himself to be not very deft. And so I'm not. I wouldn't, like, bet my mortgage on JD or anything, but I wouldn't count him out.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, to the extent that I would count him out, it would have a lot more to do with just his personal lack of Riz capabilities. I would not put past him. Once he realizes that Tucker's trying to outflank him on the America first side and that there's an actual break, he will have no choice but try to consolidate the MAGA establishment and he will lean into the war and the reasons for doing it. And maybe he leans into it for the big donor reasons and he makes his whole lane on the MAGA establishment on the heir apparent.

[JVL]

That'll be fascinating.

[Sarah Longwell]

Wouldn't be the first time you flipped and changed its whole personality.

[Tim Miller]

No telling the trope what to do now.

[JVL]

True that. All right, Tim, Got to get a word from a sponsor.

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

I want to talk about Iran and the war. War still not going great. But before we get to the serious part of this, I'm. I'm sorry, we have to find levity in life where we can. Over the weekend, the Iranians fired on a ship that was attempting to transit the Strait. Today, the Strait Times reports that that ship thought that they had purchased passage on the strait through the Iranian government using crypto. But they had fallen prey to a crypto scam.

[Sarah Longwell]

It was like a Nigerian princess. Yes.

[Tim Miller]

So crypto scams. But we paid in Melania coin. You told me I had to pay a millennia coin.

[JVL]

Shipping people and shipping companies saying, you know, we are the Iranian government. Send us $2 million in world liberty Financial coin and we can. And this company just paid it. It was like, okay, great. Oh, guys, go ahead, go ahead. You should be good.

[Sarah Longwell]

That makes sense, actually, because remember, I remember, like, the calls coming from the ship were like, we, you told us we could do this. We, you gave us passage. That makes sense.

[Tim Miller]

I thought you were going to say, what was funny about it is that, that they were fired on literally 17 hours after Trump bleeded that the Iranians had agreed to never close the strait again.

[JVL]

Never.

[Tim Miller]

It was never going to be closed again.

[JVL]

Not ever.

[Tim Miller]

We have the best agreement ever. We have a new regime in charge. They're much smarter than the old regime, and this will never be a problem again, thanks to me. And it wasn't even a full 24 hours before a ship got fired upon.

[JVL]

So we are in a point where. So as we're taping again, things can change by the minute because of the incredible stability at the top of the American governing structure. But

[Tim Miller]

we killed all of their leaders. And so it's unclear exactly who knew who were negotiating with their leaders are

[JVL]

more stable and predictable than ours.

[Tim Miller]

Not really. They can't even decide if they're going to the. To the next ceasefire meeting because there's one group that wants to do it before the blockade is over, and there's another group that wants to wait till the blockade is done.

[JVL]

So. But we now, we now have word that J.D. vance's trip back to Pakistan is off because the Iranians have said they're not showing up. This is because of the blockade. They now say, no, you guys end the blockade, then we'll come negotiate. Sarah, as somebody who loves negotiating and loves playing hardball, who do you think has the. The upper hand here? What. When you. If I just lay this out to you, who do you say? Oh, that side has the leverage.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, they're chicken and egging right now. So we are saying to the Iranians, you open the straight and then we'll negotiate. And they are saying to us, you open the straight and then we'll negotiate. Or, like, you know, like, there is just a. This weird standoff. This war is 52 days. No, we're in the 52nd day of this war.

[Tim Miller]

Far less than Korea.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Donald Trump keeps World War I.

[Sarah Longwell]

He keeps. Also, he said he would end Vietnam in, like, Just a week. And I'm like, bro, you didn't even go to Vietnam. You had bone spurs. You, like, didn't even. You didn't even fight, but you were going to end that war. Here's the thing, to your guys's point, there is. There are very few serious people in this process. We don't have good negotiators. The reason that I think The Iranians want J.D. vance to negotiate is because they think he doesn't want the war. So they think he's easy to push over, but. And they're wrong because he's just going to do whatever Trump is telling him to do. And Trump, you know, look, I could go through the whole timeline. I could go through all of the ways in which it's gone from. Because I just want to start with this. The straight was open when this war started.

[Tim Miller]

Was that right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Open? Yes, it was open.

[JVL]

It was governed by international law.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not now. Now the Iranians and us are in a standoff over it. It is the key to whether or not we will continue negotiations. And we're both saying, no, you do it first. No, you do it first. And right now. Because they don't like right now. That's why they were supposed to go. They were getting on a plane, and instead they got pulled off because the Iranians say, nope, not until you open it. And that's where we are. That's where things currently stand. Markets dropped, oil spikes.

[JVL]

Well, Trump had threatened again to go and do genocide. So again, it does seem like we're the ones who keep blinking.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, no, I'm going to answer your question. I'm not ready to choose a side on who has more unstable leadership right now because we have a single unstable person who, you know, can't be trusted to do anything. And they're navigating the post transition phase. We don't even actually know if the Ayatollah is alive. But I will answer your question of who, in Trump's parlance has the cards. And it's like, obviously Iran. I mean, Trump is more interested in a deal with them. Just like, looking at going back to the. Sarah likes to do deals. You know, if you're trying to negotiate with somebody and, you know, over a contract and, you know, one side was like, I really want. I really want this contract or this contract. Like, I can only do it for 100 grand. And they're like, oh, but I was. I'm worth 200 grand. It's like, okay, fine. And they're like, okay, you know, like, they like JD And Trump went off like they went off. They want a face saving exit badly. I think the Iranians would like to not be bombed anymore too, but, but like, I think that the. You can just, it is palpable how much Trump wants to get out of this. And so, you know, but the problem

[JVL]

is couldn't even surrender the right way. This is, this is Paul Corgan says over the weekend he couldn't even surrender, right? Like he had this thing, he got a ceasefire and he fucked up the ceasefire and fuck. Because he was antagonized. It really. And every day it goes on, it gets worse for America.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, but here's the reason I didn't quite answer it the way I'm not willing to say the Iranians, because here's the thing, Trump could just start dropping bombs. Like at the end of the day, we still do have an enormous arsenal and we are held back entirely by the fact that there's not a lot of public support for Trump to just end a civilization. But if we do have that, and that is what Trump thinks, right? And Trump's negotiating pea brain, he's like, we have the bigger bombs we will make. We will hurt you and you can't hurt us. The problem is, is that Trump knows there's no public appetite for that. And so he is constrained by saber rattling about how big our bombs are and not being able to actually do anything about it. But if he gets backed into a corner, like the card he plays is the bomb card.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, but it's what objective? What is even his. What are you the objective anymore?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, at this point, I think it's just opening the strait. It would be like eliminating Iran as a country so that they have zero power, they're obliterated, and we take control

[Tim Miller]

of the strait, which was open before the war, back to your point earlier. So, yeah, sure, I mean, I guess that's true, but I don't know that Trump wants to do that really. And I think that there are probably some on the hardline or Indian side that wouldn't mind it. And that was the bit. What was jbl? And you were on this. What was the big like FT takeout before the war started was that there were some factions within the Iranian regime that were like, we're at a moment of weakness right now. And like, the more you bomb us, the more we can put a stranglehold on power. Like, there'll be a lot of suffering of the Iranian people, but they don't live in a liberal democracy. They don't care about the suffering of their people. And so it's like, okay, well, we can make you hurt more in this situation. It's just such a cluster. It's like an unbelievable cluster. And the thing that demonstrates how bad it is, there isn't. Have you heard anybody give a coherent case for what we're doing? And it is. I try really hard to go out and find it.

[Sarah Longwell]

No nukes, Tim. No nukes.

[Tim Miller]

It's not out there. I mean, anytime anybody is in any situation where they're part of pressed at all to say something beyond like the top line talking point about Iranians being bad, like, there's they've got nothing and poor Piers Morgan can't find people to fill the slots. I had my most boring Piers Morgan episode ever. You can't even find anybody to go in there and defend the war.

[JVL]

It's too bad. It's really too bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

Let's do cash. Is that. Are we going to do cash as candy? I thought that was a good thing.

[JVL]

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[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

So, Cash, Tim, you did just a fantastic solo take over the weekend on the. And by the way, also, I could just point a privilege, your show last Friday, Chef's kiss.

[Tim Miller]

Thank you.

[JVL]

One of the best ever.

[Tim Miller]

Thank you.

[JVL]

That's all. So Cash Patel in the Atlantic accused of a little bit of light inebriation on the job. And he responded by filing a how $250 million lawsuit. Defamation suit, against which I assume is kind of like the Trump defamation suit over the drawing that he filed against the Wall Street Journal. I don't even know how to talk about this, so I just tossed it open to the floor. Does nobody care? Because this is another like, well, is MAGA lose, You know, is MAGA going to punish him for this or punish him for that? Does. Does nobody who voted for Donald Trump care that the guy who's in charge of the FBI is this fucking drunk hobbit?

[Sarah Longwell]

So here's what's in this piece that I thought was so funny, but of course, you're right, no. Donald Trump has populated his entire cabinet with incredibly incompetent people. This is the world we're living in. And as his term goes on, we get more evidence of how incompetent they are. Now, in this one, though, this opens with Cash can't get into his computer. He's locked out of his computer, which sends him into a spiraling panic that he has been tweet fired, as we have seen Trump do to many of people. And so he thinks he's been fired and that's why he's locked out of his computer. So he hits the panic button. And this is why the story gets out to everybody, because he's freaking out being like, did. Am I fired? Did he lock me out? It turns out just a glitch in the system. He was not fired.

[Tim Miller]

It's just like, imagine the fact that I couldn't get into my Riverside account one day, and rather than getting on to Slack, I get on My phone and I call Tommy Vitor and I'm like, sarah's fired me. That bitch. That bitch. I'm out. I'm gonna burn everything down. And then I start calling other colleagues and be like, we gotta get out of here. They're coming for us. They're looking around. They. And it's like, no, bro, you. You accidentally did the at sign instead of the. And percent on your password is all that. You didn't need to. You didn't need to full out, go on panic mode.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. And so what we know about Cash Patel is he thinks he's going to be fired at any minute based on people that they're talking to. There's evidence that he should be paranoid that maybe he's going to be fired any minute. And, you know, maybe he's going to be fired because he drinks or maybe he drinks because he's going to get fired. We don't know what goes on in the little brain of Cash Patel. We do know that all of these serious people at the FBI, even ones who are sort of pro Trump, are watching this idiot run the agency like an idiot. And they've all started talking is basically what's happening. And normally they wouldn't and they would respect their leader. But my guess is, is that when you've got a leader who's a clown and breaks protocol all the time, uses private jets and taxpayer dollars to fly around, it gets drunk everywhere because there's a lot like he's flying to Vegas to someplace called the Poodle Room.

[Tim Miller]

The Poodle Room.

[Sarah Longwell]

The Poodle Room. Never been to the Poodle Room.

[Tim Miller]

Me neither. I googled it. Looks nice. It's not really my cup of tea. It's a little she she for me. The fountain below.

[Sarah Longwell]

Imagine being the FBI director, though, and just in Vegas and all over DC Just getting annihilated drunk so that all kinds of people can talk to people. On the record.

[Tim Miller]

I've already talked about this twice, but I just. I can't get past it. Is the SWAT team Allegedly. Imagine. Allegedly. Imagine how hammered you have to be. It's like, I take the podcast every day. You guys know I went out to Jazz Fest since next week. Went out to Jazz Fest. Thursday night, Friday, I take the pot at nine, I don't show up. Ten o', clock, I don't show up, you call me, no answer. 11, I don't show up, you call me, no answer. 12, 2 o', clock, you're like, fine. We're going to call the local New Orleans pd and they bang down my door, and I'm just laying there in a dark room. And so everybody would be like, tim needs a break from the pod. And that's my job. A podcast host. He's running the FBI. He's running the FBI. And they had to send allegedly a SWAT team in to wake him up because he got so hammered. It's beyond imagination.

[JVL]

Do you think they'll offer him Secretary of Labor to leave the FBI? This is another thing that was surfaced this week that Pam Bondi was offered labor, and the day after that came out, the Secretary of Labor, Laurie Chavez De Remmer, she resigned. That's great. Bill has been on an impeachment kick. And Bill's argument is that just look at things and judge them for what they are. America will have to go through another two years of this after the November elections. Is that sustainable for the American government? How much damage could really be done to the country? He should be impeached and removed from office. And part of me feels like this is like when Bill was saying Joe Biden shouldn't be the nominee. Like, you know, and I was like, come on, man, he's not gonna stuff.

[Tim Miller]

So I don't.

[JVL]

I don't dismiss it lightly.

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I don't know.

[JVL]

I've been wrestling a lot with this, and it's stories like this stuff, as much as anything else that made me think, yeah, like, you can't. I mean, how lucky are we that we haven't had a giant Iranian domestic terrorist attack? Right. With. With this guy running?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, totally. I mean, and that is it. I. I think there. I think there's a couple things. One, it depends on how many seats the Democrats pick up and understand that because there's just fewer that they can pick up this time around. There's probably a ceiling on how much they can do. But if they win the Senate, they win the House by a ton. And if something terrible happens because of Trump. But, like, the problem is the Republicans at this moment, they are still standing with him in Congress. They won't do anything about it. And so until you know that Republicans are gonna. They will act. Doesn't matter what Democrats do.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I have two thoughts. This. I just related to the elections. I feel like in the conventional wisdom sphere, there's a shift from, man, the Senate is ungettable from the Democrats to now kind of this weird confidence. Like, things are so bad that the Democrats are gonna win the Senate. I'm like, and then a poll came out in Ohio yesterday that had John Houston beating. Sherrod Brown by three. There's not really a. In theory, there's a path to winning the Senate without Ohio actually. Unlikely, but it's quite unlikely. Yeah. And so like winning the Senate. And so. Right. And so it's like, okay, well, this conversation is moot if John Thune is the Senate Majority leader. You know, so, so part of it is that. And part of that is everybody who cares about this needs to get very serious about Ohio and Iowa and Texas and Florida and Nebraska and Alaska and Michigan. Yeah. And Michigan's a defense. I was talking about the out the offense stretch states, but yeah, Michigan too. Nothing wrong with dancing. Dancing is great. Dancing brings joy to people's lives. And so that's part of it. And then the other part is like, even if they take it back, what the impeachment. There's an argument for impeachment that's just like, he should just be out. We should get everybody on the record. The more compelling one for me is can you get information that you could center an impeachment on? And is there something about the Iran war related to Jared or Bibi in the Situation Room? Or it will be his family. Is there the UAE deal with the payoff to his family you could center an impeachment on. And if the war continues and if things are spiraling into a stagflation situation economically, you can kind of make the case to people. It's like, he needs to be impeached and removed because he got us into the stupid war because his family was bribed by such and such and we have the documents and now everybody's suffering and that probably still doesn't work. But then it's at least like, okay, this is about a thing. And this is kind of how I felt about the shutdowns, Right? Like, the shutdowns were both about a thing. Like, the first one was about health care extensions and people's health care premiums going up. And then the second one was about ICE killing people and wearing masks on the streets. And it's like, we don't. We want to fix those things. So impeachment, that's like also about a thing. I would be compelled by more than kind of just like raging against the dying of the lights of impeachment, which I, which would appeal to me personally. I just, I don't know the value.

[JVL]

I am very, very skeptical that there is anything that impeachment could be about which is more incontrovertible than a guy attempting a coup on video like five minutes before, you know what I'm saying like he attempted a couple, three days before they did the impeachment people, they couldn't do it.

[Tim Miller]

And so counterpoint that was the only time in history that senators of a member of their own party have voted to convict their president. Just not enough. But there were seven. They're about, you know, I just, I

[JVL]

don't think that there would be enough. And the potential downside here is and then we'll get out of here something Sarah's talked about a lot when Trump rally Brown, Trump effect the rally round there.

[Unidentified Guest (possibly a political commentator or analyst)]

So.

[JVL]

And what do you think of that as a potential downside? Is it something you worry about? I worry about, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean I just think like you right now Trump is spiraling out of control and this is I guess in a little bit this is the stove touching conversation which is do you let Trump they could try and then they could crystallize and make the fight about again. Dems versus Republicans. Just nice comfortable territory for them. Whereas right now Trump is fighting with his own people. Right. They are coming for him. They're abandoning him. I don't know why you get in the way of that. Just as a strategic matter and like only if you thought try to help the country but if you definitely that would be. You'd have to definitely think you could get a conviction to do it. You don't go into another impeachment without certainty that you get a conviction or

[Tim Miller]

this time instead of Liz Cheney playing the role of Liz Cheney, you have Lauren Boebert, Thomas Massey and it's like you go into it with like a couple of magas on the committee. At least there's. That's not nothing.

[JVL]

All right, well we will see everybody hit like hit. Subscribe go to the bulwark.com events. Tickets are on sale for our swing through San Diego. Very classy city and Los Angeles coming up. Sarah, Tim, Sam, other fantastic people. We'll see you there.

[Tim Miller]

Bye bye.

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[Sarah Spain]

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[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Spain]

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