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- [00:01]
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- [01:01]
JVL
What I take from all this is that Marjorie Taylor Greene's motives were in fact pure. She wasn't setting herself up to run for President. She's just starting another chapter in her life.
- [01:09]
Tim Miller
Pura Vida, if you will.
- [01:13]
JVL
Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark guys. Just so everybody listening to this understands, we are taping early in the morning, which is not normal for this show. So this show is veering into secret pod territory, likely to be a wheels off episode. You've been warned.
- [01:37]
Tim Miller
I'm punchy, okay?
- [01:39]
Sarah Longwell
I'm grateful for the new larger audience. I really am. But sometimes part of it is like when we used to just do this with our little secret pod crew in the morning and they were used to us in our they knew what the difference the secret pot is this. The new folks are just like, no, I want you to be like the same every time. Or like. And like sometimes when it's early in the morning, we're real different. Or when it's late at night.
- [02:02]
JVL
This isn't cable news, you know, where everything is polished to a high gloss and it's interchangeable. This is real.
- [02:09]
Tim Miller
I looked awful on yesterday's podcast with Bill Kristol, by the way, and I appreciate everybody letting me know. I'm just like feeling good. I don't have a fucking makeup artist in the house, okay? It's a long weekend, a Monday morning taping. I'm not always looking 100.
- [02:21]
JVL
We're in the authenticity era, guys. And we are built for the authenticity era, okay? Late last week we got the Virginia Supreme Court, the Scova as I have taken to calling it. Can I make that happen?
- [02:38]
Tim Miller
I like that.
- [02:39]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I think this is going to be a. I don't know that. I don't know that we're going to have so many conversations in the long term that we need to have a name for it.
- [02:46]
JVL
Well, for, for the purposes of this conversation, we're going to ref to the SCOVA as distinct from the SCOTUS Supreme Court of the United States. And the SCOVA issued a ruling on the Virginia redistricting which I, I have a, a tremendous number of internal conflicts on. And I wanted to talk to you about all of this stuff because there is like a bunch of practical near term consequences. There are some strategic long term decisions that have to be made. But there's also a baseline liberalism question which is, I don't know, like I'm a pretty processes oriented guy and I am open to arguments that are process based. Which this Supreme Court ruling was and which didn't say that, hey, you can't do this redistricting which said we do have rules on this. The process via which this was reached didn't follow those rules. And so you gotta check all the boxes. And normally this is the kind of thing that I love. Ooh, process, baby, give me process. And our friend Nick Cataggio has a piece on this over the dispatch in which he says, this is, you know, you wind up in this place where the illiberals and illiberalism finds that it can get what it wants either through liberal means or through illiberal means. And liberalism is, is const. It's a one way street. Right. The ratchet only turns one way. And I just wanted to throw to you guys because again, like process based stuff, process based equals good. On the other hand, it does seem like the courts are basically saying, sure, when Republican states which have not taken pains to do good government stuff, want to do very bad illiberal things, they are not constrained because they didn't have any good government processes in place. They can do it. And when places like Virginia want to try to establish some deterrence because they had good government processes in place, they really can't do that in ways on the timeline which they want. Yeah, so I just want to throw that open to you guys. Are either of you struggling with this as well? I am, yeah, talk to me.
- [05:22]
Tim Miller
I mean, look, I have the same issues you and we talked about this yesterday with Bill Kristol and it was like, you know, there was that cockamamie idea out there that was like, we're going to lower the retirement age for all Virginia judges to 53 and a half. You know, and it's like, that way we have a new rule, and we're doing it through liberal means. And, you know, I was like, this just seems. This seems goofy, right? Like, I don't. I'm for fighting fire with fire. But, like, this is. This is ridiculous. Like, at this point, we don't have rules. We're just creating a new fake rule. And maybe that's. I mean, that's the dark JVL responses. There are no rules, really. And this is all about norms and character. And I talked to Jim Comey about this, actually, for today's pod, and that was. I was like, what reforms would you like? He's like, I have some ideas, but really, this is all about character. And I was like, well, then we're fucked. So, you know, that's pretty depressing. But I guess my reaction to this, and it overlaps. I don't want to go down. You guys do it on the secret pot all the time to expand the Supreme Court fight. I don't really want to go down that rabbit hole. But this is where to me, this kind of, like, just an idea like, that becomes more intriguing because it's like, well, that is through liberal means. And if you go. If you do it through Congress, right? Like, if you do it, it's constitutional. You do it through Congress. Congress says you can do this. There will be people then that say, oh, you guys are going against the norms now. And I'm like, well, what do you want us to do? Like, we can't be totally handcuffed in this case. And, like, and I think that. That you have to look through what can be done, you know, within that is not a total affront to the rules and laws and norms to combat this. Like, you have to be as aggressive as possible. And, like, that's my kind of view on this at this point. And, like, the Supreme Court's. I've done so many rants about the VRA this week, but one thing I haven't really focused on is, like, the timing of what the Supreme Court did. You just, like, you cannot tell me it was a fucking accident.
- [07:10]
Sarah Longwell
Right?
- [07:10]
Tim Miller
Okay. You just can't. Like, it was not a coincidence, right? Like, throughout my whole life, I've been. I've been following this stuff. I'm not SCOTUS blog person, but I just. As a political follower and somebody that is in the political system that watches this, like, the Supreme Court have done the comp. The really, you know, controversial cases and decisions at the end of June, every time, you know, like whether it was Dobbs, whether it was all the gay marriage ones or whatever, anytime. It's like they wait till the end of the session, at the end of the June and they dropped their, you know, the most controversial rulings. Maybe that's a stupid way to do it, I don't know. But that's how they've been doing it as long as I've been watching the Supreme Court. And like in this case, this, you know, extremely controversial case that could have an impact on this year's election gets dropped like right before all the southern states have their primaries. And it's like, oh, you know, John Roberts is at a speech in Pennsylvania and he's like, people say we're political actors, but we're not political actors.
- [08:10]
JVL
Be careful, Tim, you're going to hurt his feelings by noticing what he's doing.
- [08:13]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I'm just like, not only is
- [08:16]
JVL
allowed to do it, but he also is allowed to not have his feelings hurt by people noticing.
- [08:20]
Tim Miller
It's the craziest coin, you know, it was obviously a political decision and now we have, we're canceling votes in Louisiana. So I just, I will not be lectured by, you know, the anti, antis or the MAGA folks about anything, anything that they wanted to put forth. Even the stupid 54, you know, whatever year old retirement age. Because it's like they canceled votes in my state. Like people had voted already and they canceled the votes. They're doing it in the middle of the election in Alabama. They're like one week away from the primary in Alabama. In South Carolina now they might be doing it to such a degree that Nancy Mace could lose her primary and then still decide to run for Congress again. Because they're going to move the primary dates around. Like, sorry, once you start moving the fucking primary dates around, like, you know that they have, they just, they have. There's no interest in even trying to pretend to go along with like, what would be reasonable. What is, you know, what, what, what the electorate would accept on the other side. And so, you know, I don't know, I like people are really pissed here in Louisiana for good reason. Like, and, and it's outrageous and, and I don't know what else to do but besides, but continue to fight fire with fire. And I wish that wasn't the answer, but I don't know what else to do.
- [09:34]
JVL
Sarah.
- [09:35]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, so I'm also struggling with this, but I do feel like I have a clear sense of what is happening, right? Because there's two things. There's the emotion of what happens when you feel like the levers that give access to people in a democracy that doesn't allow sort of majority to just rule you. Right. The whole point of our democracy is that the minority has a stake in a say. That's one of the reasons that it's good. And so the rage that people feel at not having some lever, right. They went and voted. That was the lever. The lever was in Virginia. You were going to go vote. And Tim's right about something or maybe, sorry, maybe it was you. JVL about the good governance. Like one of the things to understand is that if you go and look back over the years here, because I know this community, I've, I've been, I've been part of this community, right. When you're in sort of the democracy community, you know that there has been a, A, an active effort in many states, most of them blue and purple, to make redistricting non partisan. So they built these non partisan redistricting commissions so that they weren't done in this partisan way. Right. They did this good governance. And now those states who were pushing for those things, they pushed them in their own states and now their hands are tied in a different way than Republicans are in their states who did not push through any of these reforms. And it's a very complicated moment for that. They were trying to do the right thing. They were trying to be pro democracy and to have more representation, to have it be better. And instead the result of that is they're now having more hurdles than the right than the Republicans in this redistricting fight. It's also very difficult because Republicans kicked this off, right? Republicans started this with the Texas mid cycle redistricting. It's not a thing that people do. It is a hundred partisan ploy, 100% partisan ploy to eke out more seats for Donald Trump. Democrats fought back. They fought back and they fought back in those tougher states and they did it by having people vote. And they spent $65 million to persuade people they did everything right except, and this is the part that I have not found a sufficient answer for because I am trying to understand in Virginia whose fault is it that this happened? Like not, not fault. So I can blame, but like to understand exactly how this went down because it appears like the rules were the rules and Democrats didn't quite abide by the rules. Right? They, while people were already voting, Pat, they had to pass it twice. They had to pass an amendment twice.
- [12:25]
Tim Miller
Well they didn't have the majority before the election. That's why.
- [12:28]
Sarah Longwell
That's right. But people were already voting. Right. And so but here's what I don't understand and it goes to this question of Votus and SCOTUS and the way that they're acting in these partisan ways with their timing, which is they could have told Virginia they couldn't do this way back when. Like if they let them go forward knowing there was a technical problem that they were going to rule against. So they let them spend the money, let them do that only to pull the rug out from them later. Like it feels is that, is that that is true.
- [13:00]
Tim Miller
The others just. I don't who fucked the other side. But like what they would say to that is that the Democrats I guess filed a motion or somebody on you know, on the side of the ballot initiative filed a motion basically saying you can't rule on this until after the election. You know, like the argument being made by the pro reform side was that they don't have standing or whatever to argue on this. I've seen this back and forth on this on Twitter. So that's what they. That's would be the defense of the for our majority justices on scova.
- [13:30]
Sarah Longwell
Uh huh. Is that.
- [13:31]
JVL
Well, so you don't know what SCOVA is going to rule. Like for instance, if a similar style case were to happen in Texas, I suspect that Scotex would not be so scrupulous about the process being followed.
- [13:47]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [13:47]
JVL
I mean this is again. Right. You are, you are only. It's only in states where the liberal and I mean liberal in the small L Liberalism ideas are taken seriously. Where you would be like huh, well this is an interesting question. And we don't know how the court will rule on it because the court is not a political actor in the the egregious way in which it is in say Texas or Louisiana.
- [14:16]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [14:17]
JVL
I mean this is again this is the. The ratchet only turns one way heads I win, tails you lose situation in which small l liberalism finds itself in this moment.
- [14:30]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I guess my point is just that I think there's a lot of discussion that I've seen where people are enraged and they're like look what's happening over here, look what the Republicans are doing in their states. That's why we should whether it's like ignore the court or drop the age, any of that. And I, I just want to explain, this is like a pure explanation that the reason is, is that Democrats over the last 12, 15 years have sought to make it harder to gerrymander for their own in their own states where they have political power, which is good, which we support, which is good, which is good. But that is why you're getting an asymmetry right now.
- [15:05]
Tim Miller
That's so you're starting to have second, are you starting to have doubts about the pro democracy movement and doing gerrymandering?
- [15:11]
Sarah Longwell
Well, no. This is actually, this is, this is, this is the point. I've never liked the structural reforms or I've never thought that they were a better tool than actually trying to persuade people for exactly this reason. And it's why when JVL talks about expanding the court, my biggest thing is when you make changes like that, be so cautious because you don't know how things are going to go. You don't know where you could end up and whether it's in the tit for tat, back and forth. You think you make these changes for good reasons. You think you make these changes to make things better.
- [15:50]
Tim Miller
This is your Burkean. This is the Berkeley.
- [15:52]
Sarah Longwell
It is.
- [15:52]
Tim Miller
This is when people say look, I
- [15:54]
JVL
understand it that I worry about.
- [15:57]
Sarah Longwell
I almost always agree all the time.
- [15:59]
Tim Miller
Yes.
- [15:59]
Sarah Longwell
And so it is not a reflexive. Sarah, you're such a Republican. It is, it is like part of me that is risk averse and maybe, maybe it is my small c conservatism where it is when you make these changes, you do not know what the environment's gonna look like down the road. It is the now which is why full agreement. So for those structural reforms now I'm a now don't get me wrong though. I am hardcore into reform around things like all of the norms that we used to have that were like we do. We just know we do this. We don't let the, the president's son in law conduct foreign policy because we just don't do that. We're going to need rules for all those things. We need to rein in executive power. I've always been for reigning in executive power. We need a war powers act. Like you know, there's. Okay jvo. We don't have to have a whole fight about.
- [16:49]
JVL
No, no. I just have a question though. I mean just for instance on this one, right. Things are so broken. Let's pretend we get a law passed saying that the president's son in law can't conduct foreign diplomacy. Well the next, When Donald Trump Jr. Is president, his attorney general is never going to prosecute a case for somebody violating that law.
- [17:16]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [17:16]
JVL
I mean it's like well, we had a law mandating the sale of Tick Tock.
- [17:21]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I understand.
- [17:22]
Tim Miller
Now we're back.
- [17:23]
JVL
And it just didn't. You know what I mean? Like, I. I just don't understand how these things work anymore.
- [17:28]
Sarah Longwell
So, first of all, you know what they do. Part of it is that you pass them to try to change the culture. Like, if, if I have a theory of the case that I am arguing for all the time right now, it is to get Trump as low as possible. Right. Well, I want him below the Bush line. I want him at the deck line, the dick where Richard. Yeah, where Richard Nixon was. Right.
- [17:46]
JVL
We should say tricky deck line because that'll make it easier for people to understand the reference.
- [17:51]
Sarah Longwell
If anybody thinks I'm moving the goalposts, you're right. As Trump gets closer and closer to the Bush line, I'm like, great. How low can we go? And the reason is, is that the more unpopular Trump is when he leaves office, the more likely it is that a Democrat wins in 2028 with a reform mandate. And we are in a position to make some of these structural changes. But here is my main point. I talked about this with Bill on the Sunday show. There is only one way out of this. There really is, and that is you have to have overwhelming force in the vote. You have to win elections. You have to have political power first. Everything. And this is at the core of the book that I wrote, which is it is about winning political power so that you can do the things that need to be done to save this democracy. Like, that is the. And so when you guys talk about how angry you are, and we are all extremely angry, nobody should get it twisted about.
- [18:47]
Tim Miller
I don't.
- [18:48]
JVL
I'm not angry.
- [18:48]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, I am.
- [18:49]
JVL
No.
- [18:51]
Sarah Longwell
Namaste. You're. Okay. Namaste. Fine. But. But the anger comes from feeling impotent and feeling like there's not a lever to pull.
- [18:58]
Tim Miller
I. So I agree with you, but can I offer, just to the counter, just a little anecdote? I don't want a Tom Friedman here too much, but I got a. Was getting a text yesterday, live text from a friend who's in Uber here in New Orleans. And, you know, so this is word of mouth, so just take it for what it's worth. But the Uber driver is a black woman. She's a bus driver. She was driving Uber on the side, and they started talking about politics, started talking about the redistricting ruling, and she's just like, I'm not. I'm not like a radical, you know, far Left, like, you know, black rights, like, you know, advocate, right? Like, that's like, not me. That's what she was saying to him. Like, that's not me. Like, I just. I just want us all to have the same rights and the same opportunity. And, like, what am I supposed to think? Like, what am I supposed to think when they cheat, when they stop an election to block me from being able to pick my representative? You know, and he was like. She was like that. That radical. That. And she didn't say the word radicalizes, but, like, the. What she was describing that she wanted, you know, it was like, that was. And if you're in Tennessee or in Louisiana, like, there really is like, that. It's true on the national level. I agree with you. I agree with you. I'm just saying, like, I think that these things are both true. Like, it is true that we need to get him to the Tricky Dick line and that the Democrats need to win by enough that they win the House and the Senate, and that Donald Trump needs to be, you know, going to the ash heap of history as a failed president. And that will help at a national level. And the national. Our national politics isn't broken. But, like, it's hard to say, to tell people in the south that, like, you live in a representative democracy where they're going to redraw Tennessee so that Every district is R +20, and Memphis doesn't have a fucking representative, and Nashville doesn't have a representative, and now New Orleans or Baton Rouge aren't gonna have a representative here when the people had already voted. And, like, not everybody understands all the, you know, the. The way that things go with the checks and the balances and the courts and the rules, and it's just like. And so you might be able to say on a technicality, Jeff Landry might be able to make the case, like, well, on a technicality, we're following the law, and this is what the Supreme Court said. And that first VRA ruling from four years ago, that was actually the illegal one, and blah, blah, blah, like, it's hard. It's hard. You can make that case maybe on the technicality, but what do you say?
- [21:21]
Sarah Longwell
I don't want to make that case on the technicality down in Louisiana. I just want to say it's complete. What they're doing in Louisiana is outrageous, and in. What they're doing in lots of places is outrageous. But let me ask you a different question, because this is when I say we're all saying we're struggling, maybe we're struggling with sort of different things. The part that I'm struggling with is with that feeling of helplessness. Right. With that feeling of what do you tell that woman? My question is, what do you tell that woman? Okay. You don't want to tell her that there's a, an answer, that there's a democratic way right through it. Like, you can't tell her that in Louisiana.
- [21:57]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [21:58]
Sarah Longwell
So what do you. What is the alternative, though?
- [22:04]
Tim Miller
I don't. Screaming at the clouds. I don't know. I, like, obviously it's not violence. Like, I'm not saying or anything like that. What's that? Move to a.
- [22:12]
JVL
Move to a blue state.
- [22:14]
Tim Miller
Move to a blue state, I guess.
- [22:15]
JVL
I mean, I'm not being glib.
- [22:17]
Tim Miller
I know. I don't. This is what I'm saying matters. Maybe the answer is in the meantime, Jonathan Martin's political article this week is that there's going to be backlash to this and say what you want. And Donald, you know, like, maybe the answer at minimum right now is like, let's maximize the black vote. And like, and everybody. This is just the moment for everybody to galvanize. But, like, at the end of the day, let's say everybody galvanizes. And, and we wake up in December and like, there's no black members of the House of Representatives in Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina. Tennessee. And there'll still be some in Georgia. Yeah, but like, that's a possible outcome.
- [22:56]
Sarah Longwell
Totally. But.
- [22:57]
Tim Miller
All right.
- [23:00]
Sarah Longwell
I'm working myself to a point here. I have explained why it is the way that it is, how Democrats have done this. I completely understand the feeling of helplessness. Here's what I don't understand. Why aren't people in the streets? We're talking about rage. Because I see online more like, well, if they're not gonna let us do democracy, violence is the only answer. Right. And I'm like, there's a whole bunch of stuff between violence and sit and take it. A whole bunch of stuff. And if you. I've been. I spent a lot of time this weekend as I was thinking about this, reading about nonviolent resistance, the civil rights movement, Martin Luther King, and just like other nonviolent movements in other countries. And there's basically a political science theory around once, 3.5% of the population.
- [23:53]
Tim Miller
Oh, yeah.
- [23:55]
Sarah Longwell
Is in the streets that. That becomes very difficult for elected officials to ignore. Now we've been having. And this is something else. I see. This is my boomer appreciation rant. Everybody who's out in the streets so far has been Is like, all of the older people who remember what America was like 20 years ago are getting out in the streets and making a patriotic case for why Trump's got to go, why ICE is terrible, why what's happening is anti American. But, like, where are the young people? Where, where is like, let's. I'm ready. I'm so mad. If everybody's so mad, if everybody's as mad as they say they are online, why aren't people in the streets right now? Why isn't the answer. Why isn't the answer to the woman who's driving the Uber? Well, we've got to get out there and do this.
- [24:48]
Tim Miller
She's driving a bus in an Uber. I'm sorry, not to be glib.
- [24:52]
Sarah Longwell
I know what you mean.
- [24:52]
Tim Miller
But I guess what my say. I guess my point is, I hear you. I want people to be the streets. I hear you. I'm in streets. I want you. I want it. I just, I'm also saying that, like, once there's been a breakdown in the social con contract, right? Like, once the President and the Supreme Court has decided that, like, you know, we're just going to do anything we can to go around the rules to screw people over. Like, I can understand the feeling of just, of people just being like, well, fuck this. Like, I'm not even. I'm not really. I'm just going to focus on my life and my family. Like, I don't. This isn't really a democracy, you know, I don't really have a stake in the system. They've taken my stake away. Like, I understand. And so in that case, I think it is incumbent then upon leaders to, like, make the case and to try to engage people like these. This is challenging. I'm not, I'm not endorsing, checking out, but I'm just, I'm saying, like, this is what they have done successfully, right? Like, is. Is give people a feeling of just like, well, I don't have a way to make positive change. And I think that that's very concerning. And I felt that way about the minority election in 2016. I've been making this argument back since 2020. It's like they. He lost. He lost the majority vote and then stole a Supreme. And it's like, how. And then to go tell people vote. I am on the side of, like, people need to go vote harder. Like, I'm on that side, but I'm just, I'm, I'm voicing, not vote harder. I'm voicing. Why?
- [26:23]
JVL
I think 110%.
- [26:26]
Tim Miller
I understand the reaction on the other side.
- [26:28]
Sarah Longwell
It's not vote harder. We you do need and this is I mean, I've been making this case and people don't seem to sort of like it, even though I'm like, this is what we have to do is to that they are taking away their representation. They should be so mad. Everybody should be so mad about black voters in Louisiana and white voters in Louisiana should be infuriated and they should make their political leaders pay for it. Not by going to their house and banging on pots and pans, but by organizing people to get into the streets and explain show our political leaders they can't do this. Do you know why they think they can do this?
- [26:58]
JVL
They can do this because they think
- [27:00]
Sarah Longwell
we'll just tweet about it and not try and do anything about it.
- [27:03]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I, I have to say I,
- [27:04]
JVL
I do not believe that having protests would change anyway.
- [27:08]
Sarah Longwell
You hate leaving your house.
- [27:11]
JVL
But I do have. I do. I come to you not just with problems, but with a potential solution.
- [27:17]
Tim Miller
Okay, great.
- [27:19]
JVL
But we'll do that after the message from our first sponsor.
- [27:22]
Tim Miller
What a cliffhanger.
- [27:23]
Sarah Longwell
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- [28:55]
JVL
All right, so today's triad is about how the redistricting wars aren't the end of the winner take all. Well, like, it's not the end point of the winner take all mentality. It is the beginning of winner take all fights. And so in South Carolina, the Republican leader of the Senate is very nervous about doing what Trump wants them to do, which is to redistrict James Clyburn out of existence. And his concern is that having a Democratic member in the House is good for South Carolina because it means that when there are Democratic presidents, there's somebody there to bring home the bacon for the state. And it means that both parties are invested in getting federal monies to South Carolina. We have seen over the last 18 months the Trump administration do something kind of unprecedented, which is to really target blue states. So the Doge cuts went something like 85% of them were targeted at Democratic districts.
- [30:06]
Tim Miller
JBL's proposed solution is not going to make Sarah happy. I've just, I know where you're listening now.
- [30:11]
JVL
Listen, I just not, I am not proposing this. I am simply asking.
- [30:18]
Tim Miller
You said I'm coming with a possible solution.
- [30:21]
JVL
That's right. It's a possible solution.
- [30:24]
Sarah Longwell
That is not advocating, that is not my bodies in the streets. Like, I'm here, I'm here radical. I'm here radicalized, talking about leading more protests, putting bodies in the streets. And you're going to tell me, by
- [30:35]
JVL
the way, okay, okay, if we have Tennessee without a Democratic representative, if we have Louisiana without a Democratic representative, if we have Alabama without a Democratic representative, possibly South Carolina as well.
- [30:57]
Tim Miller
Also.
- [30:57]
JVL
I'm sorry, I got to back up. The other thing that has happened is that within the last week or two, the Trump administration has undertaken a federal review of all federal aid and monies going to 14 Democratic states. That's the thing which is happening right now. A bunch of good government, nonpartisan think tanks are like, what the fuck is happening? This is crazy. The federal government is right now withholding wildfire prevention money from both California and Colorado, simply refuses to give them a dime of the federally mandated monies for this stuff. Let's pretend you have President Raphael warnock and it is 2029. And something has happened in Tennessee. Should a Democratic president do anything to help a red state with which has gone out of its way to gerrymander out.
- [31:58]
Tim Miller
I'm going to even a single. No, hold on.
- [32:01]
JVL
Let me just, let me, let me propose. Because if the answer in the redistricting fight was that you have to establish some level of deterrence and so California had to act to blunt Texas and Virginia had to act to blunt Florida, et cetera, et cetera, would not the same deterrence theory hold at the next level up the chain? Again, not advocating, just asking questions.
- [32:30]
Tim Miller
I mean, obviously we should not do that in the case of emergencies. And what Donald Trump is doing is sick. I think that the idea, though, the broader question of not emergencies, then federal aid. Yeah. Should there be other infrastructure spending? Right. Should there be other possible levers pulled to put pressure on to red states? Sure. I mean, yeah. And we're a long way away, but like, I think so. I don't, I mean. Or can that be used as a negotiation tactic to create, you know, pressure for new federal gerrymandering laws? And like, that would be the better answer. Right. Like, you know, basically saying, like, hey, like, we're going to go to the members of Tennessee and figure out what that leverage point is and say you guys can do what you want. If you want to do full war on us, then we can see how that goes. But maybe some vulnerable. Because I do think that Democrats will still take the House. I don't think that's 100% anymore, by the way, but I do think they likely will. But then it's like, okay, so you've got people in vulnerable seats that are maybe. Let's go back. Actually, I think this is important. Let's go back to the reauth of the civil rights bill in 82 and 2006. Why did so many Republicans vote for it then? Right. Was it because they had really deep belief in the Voting rights amendment, section 2, and wanted black people in the south to have representation? Some of them did. Certainly some of them did. There were a lot of them that were doing it because it was politically, they felt like it was politically necessary that being seen as a racist who is taking away the seat of John Lewis who walked across the Edmund Pettus Bridge would make them into a pariah. Right. And so they went along. Not no more. Not no more. Right. But this is where I now I'm going back into Sarah's side. Like, this is how you take it back to the Sarah side of the Argument like you use these leverage for sure. But can you do it in a political way where they feel like there is such a backlash to this that they have to make some kind of accommodations? And maybe the answer to that is no, right? Like maybe you get to that inflection point in 2029 and the answer that is no. And then I'm back on JBL side, right? I just like, I know it feels like we've been at maximum partisanship forever and that like the country, you know, people have been writing this article and op ed for 30 years. Like the country can't survive this level of partisanship anymore. It's like the rubber band is going to snap eventually. Like maybe we're actually even near where the rubber band snaps, right? Like maybe this has, like maybe we've got to go way deeper. And then eventually you get to a point like that. Like I'm, that that's kind of how I would think about it.
- [35:19]
Sarah Longwell
I think that that is a, I think that's a great way to look at it in part because. And this, this is the point I'm trying to make, which is rage without a plan is not useful. Rage. Right. And so like jbl, you're, the thing that you're setting up there is like, well, why don't we just punish those red states, right?
- [35:38]
JVL
And I'm saying establish deterrence.
- [35:40]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I know, sure. And, and I'm, and, and I don't like that obviously because there's lots of people who live in those states who I would never want to take aid away from. Like just, I'm just gonna make people's lives harder for a. Like because what Trump is doing, this is where you don't, when you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares back at you. Do not become the monster you are fighting. Right. However, the thing is, is like how do you play constitutional hardball with a means to an end? This is why right now when people are like, you need to go to the judges houses in Virginia and scream at them and whatever. And I'm like that, okay, you can go frighten. There's those people and their kids and like get nothing for it. What are you trying to get? What are you trying to achieve?
- [36:24]
JVL
The means to end is to convince the, the state legislatures to redraw so that they get some democratic representation so that they have skin in the game when there's either party in the in power. So it isn't punish. It really, it isn't punishment. It is, it is the exact same theory as the redistricting in California and Virginia.
- [36:50]
Sarah Longwell
The point that I'm trying to make is that I think that one of the things that the Internet has given us, that has a real negative, is a place for people to go and holler about these, right, Scream about them, say, okay, we need to just tear the system down. We got to burn it down without anybody having to leave their basement or get up off their couch and go do an actual thing for democracy. Because you know what I see every day? I went to Minneapolis and I watched a bunch of 65 year old women stand in the freezing cold to hold ice accountable. I drive down Connecticut Avenue every day and I see a bunch of 75 year olds standing there with, with cardboard signs for the cars that drive by. And I'm saying, why isn't that the energy? Why is it? Because you know what? I see a lot of pictures of these, of people who say they're really mad and they're just like chilling at basketball games and doing whatever. And I'm like, why don't we organize and go do something? I just. The rage without action, without a plan, without a thing to do is not useful. It just eats away at our insides. No, you're not. That's not a real, that's not a plan. And, and it's also not immediate, right?
- [37:58]
JVL
Like, well, it's not immediate. No, no, it's a plan.
- [38:01]
Sarah Longwell
Every single plan that you have, every single thing you, you talk about requires winning political power to do as a.
- [38:10]
JVL
What presupposes that you can get conversation, right? No, it presupposes that you can get.
- [38:15]
Sarah Longwell
Don't just presuppose it. We have to do something about it. We have to do something about it. Like, there is the world.
- [38:20]
JVL
Don't yell at me for just thinking three steps ahead. Like, you know, you have to think about both. And the idea that you could just like, oh, well, if people would just march in Baton Rouge, the, the Louisiana. No, they're not going to change their minds.
- [38:34]
Sarah Longwell
You, you're talking about exacting political consequence, about changing the contours of the political moment. And I'm telling you, one of the reasons Republicans think that they can get away with this stuff is that they think like, yeah, people get mad on the Internet. They're actually going to do anything about it. They're actually going to get in the streets. They're right.
- [38:50]
JVL
They can get away with it. No, they think they can get away with it because of the way the power structures are arranged. That's why they think they can get away with It. And they're right. If I could just.
- [38:58]
Tim Miller
Hold on, hold on.
- [38:59]
JVL
I really. Joe Biden spent disproportionately in red states and rural communities.
- [39:07]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [39:08]
JVL
Joe Biden's big spending initiatives went disproportionately to red states and red counties.
- [39:16]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that was a mistake.
- [39:17]
Tim Miller
Okay.
- [39:18]
JVL
Donald, he did not benefit from that. Donald Trump has disproportionately tried to punish blue states and blue counties. He has not been. Do you see what I'm saying? Like, it, if, if Biden doesn't get any benefit from this and Trump doesn't get any, any pain from it, then it seems like you have to try something else. And if deterrence in theory worked with redistricting, why shouldn't it work with federal spending? Again, this is, this is like the step two. Like, I am, I'm all for whatever step one is to, to win back power, which may or may not be achievable, by the way. Who knows? But we should just proceed as if it is achievable. Right? We, we should proceed as if, like, yes, it is possible to win back executive power. I'm just saying, once you. Okay, let's presuppose that that happens. What's the answer? Because I'll tell you what the Democratic answer is going to be. It's going to be, let's pass Medicare for All. They're going to spend two. If you get President Raphael Warnock, they're going to spend two years trying to pass Medicare for All.
- [40:20]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [40:21]
JVL
And I just don't think that people
- [40:24]
Tim Miller
will still complain about their health care and then the Democrats will hold the bag on it. I've related. This is maybe tangible. This is kind of having an esoteric discussion. And maybe I want to offer. I'm interested.
- [40:34]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. We threw out our entire show. We've thrown out our entire show, basically, in this.
- [40:39]
Tim Miller
I have a tangible thought on this because, you know, Sarah, you're talking about those pro democracy meetings and we're talking. And then we talked about the money that was spent in Virginia and California, $150 million. Like, I do wonder, like, if rich people, if rich liberals that want to save the country are spending, are doing the wrong things. Right. By, by focusing on that. And like, if the political answer here, like, I think about this in Louisiana all the time. Like, I, I can do what I can tweeting about it and talking about it, but like, Jeff Landry has put in an estate sales tax and like cut the income tax and put in a sales tax. So when you go down to the grocery store, you're paying an extra, whatever, five bucks that you wouldn't have been paying every time you go because of the stupid, aggressive tax that he put through. Simultaneously, his boss in DC has got us into a stupid war that's making everybody's gas pay more. Like, wouldn't a more useful use of $80 million just be to, like, troll the fuck out of people in these states and just, like, go in there and be like, hey, guys, you have the worst schools in the country. You're paying X in your sales tax, Your gas price is going up. It's all Jeff Landry and Donald Trump's fault. Like, I'm not even trying to convince you to vote for Democrats. Like, I'm not even like, like just a pure campaign to ruin their brand. Like, ruin it. They don't give a fuck about you.
- [42:09]
Sarah Longwell
So. So this is.
- [42:10]
Tim Miller
Maybe that's a bad idea, by the way. I don't know. I'm just like, it seems like a better idea than, like, voter registration.
- [42:16]
Sarah Longwell
It's a good idea. It's a good idea. And this is, this is one of the big problems with the whole democracy reform thing. And right now, look, these are, these are my people. And so, like, I'm going to get a lot of angry texts for saying this, but they also know this because I've sat in these meetings for years and years on ranked choice, voting and gerrymandering reform and all of these things going. I don't think this is the solution. I think the solution is to focus on trying to persuade people. But, like, Democrats got it in their heads at some point that advertising was a dumb idea, that persuasion was a bad idea. They started testing every ad for the
- [42:49]
Tim Miller
people that don't vote like them. They also have the idea, the people who don't vote like. And if they turn opposite of true,
- [42:55]
Sarah Longwell
it's the opposite of true. True. I'm begging people. This is why I am. I am starting to lose my mind over how wrong people are getting what has happened over the last 10 years in the political moment and what the solutions were. The solution is only one thing. And I'll just say as a background for myself, I do think part of this is because I come out of the gay marriage movement and that was where I cut my teeth in politics, was convincing people that you needed to, like, support gay marriage for the following reasons, whatever. And there was a bunch of bad messaging for a while. And, like, it's a civil rights issue, whatever that was actually wasn't a good message. It didn't work. You know what worked? What worked is getting people to come out, be who they were, and having everybody. And it was also being like, we're just like you. We're just like you. We're just normal. We just have love. Like, actually, the procedural arguments didn't work. The human arguments worked. And so I was like, if we want to build a durable movement, we are going to have to change some minds. And the thing that I am so upset about right now with this factional argument between progressives and centrists, and that's pretty much being waged online. It's not necessarily. And it's happening in podcast, you know, the podcast world. It's not happening just with real voters. The thing about it is, like, go on offense. This has always been my go on offense with your messaging. Donald Trump is at his lowest ebb. He's on his heels. Why are you fighting with each other? Why are we talking about violence? We could be taking all the money that we have and we could put billboards up in every high. Let's buy every billboard in the country with all the billions of dollars we have and tell people one thing. Their gas prices are too expensive and it's Donald Trump's fault.
- [44:41]
Tim Miller
Stupid word.
- [44:42]
Sarah Longwell
The stupid war is driven up prices. Donald Trump's tariffs have driven up your prices. Every message is available to us and for some reason, nobody can seem to get their hands on it. And so if nobody else will do it, I will. I will buy. Give me. Come, come here. We'll buy every billboard. We will make sure that everybody knows Donald Trump is the one who is driving up prices. Like, this is what you do. The plan is to get Donald Trump as low as possible so that the generic ballot. On the generic ballot, you are D +12. And you overwhelm the ways that they have tried to rig it. And make no mistake, they are trying to rig it. I am with you, but you can overwhelm it. But it's going to take the actual work. It's going to take actual work. It's not going to be just tweeting. It's not going to be fighting with each other.
- [45:29]
Tim Miller
Yeah, Can I just say there just disappoint really quick. One thing, it's just he's not close to low enough also, by the way,
- [45:35]
Sarah Longwell
he's not close to low enough.
- [45:36]
Tim Miller
He can go low. Like just this, I tweeted this Nebraska poll that has osborne up by 4, which is kind of encouraging, which I posted it, but a friend whose pollster, like, texted me and he's like, here's why I don't like that poll. It's because there's a bunch of undecided still. And he's like, I think that they're all Republicans that just haven't decided yet. And he's like, here's why I think that. And it's because Trump's favorable in that same poll was at 47 in Nebraska. Like, that's pretty good. I. Trump won Nebraska by lie. And it shows that, like, we've gained ground. But it's like, to really do things like, like in a place like Nebraska, like, Trump's got to be much lower. Like, he's got to be at 39, you know, and like, that's more persuasion.
- [46:15]
JVL
All right, I want to move us on. I do want to say one thing just very quickly. So, Tim, you said it was a mistake for Biden to shovel all that money into red states.
- [46:25]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Obviously in retrospect, I don't. I might have said it was.
- [46:30]
JVL
Sure.
- [46:31]
Tim Miller
I don't recall.
- [46:32]
JVL
I agree that in retrospect it was a mistake. But I just want to say that had he not done that, had Biden been more aggressive and not tried to mend fences, then after Kamala Harris lost, we all would have said, oh, well, it's because Biden didn't reach out to red states. This is the problem, right? This is the double bind where the liberal side can't do things, the illiberal side can.
- [46:55]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, hey, jdl just. But on this, the reason that it didn't work isn't because he didn't reach out to them. It's because, and I don't. This is just like hardball politics where, again, it was a mistake. The stuff Biden did, it's all hitting now. All the infrastructure stuff. Like, they didn't play any kind of sort of politics with it. And they probably should have played some politics with it where it was like, we need to get the benefit of doing this. We need the political benefit instead. All the ribbon cutting ceremonies. I mean, you want to get enraged,
- [47:29]
Tim Miller
Watch a local Republican. Yeah, you do this complaint now and you'll hear Ron Klain and these guys be like, come on, guys, we did that infrastructure tour. It's like, dude, it wasn't even. You didn't try. You didn't try. Okay, it's probably a mistake. Even if they did try to be honest, like, in retrospect, they probably should just put all the, all the jobs into purple states and, and like, really pushed it or whatever. But like, but they also didn't even try to promote.
- [47:54]
JVL
All right, so we're going to finally button up this before we pivot to a round. But first we got to have another. Yeah, that's right.
- [48:03]
Tim Miller
There's a war there.
- [48:05]
JVL
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- [50:15]
Tim Miller
The shortest answer, the easiest way to do this is like look at the cook political report that do great job, shout out to them. And we assume it's going to be a democratic Year. And like how these things have always worked recently is basically all the toss ups and the liens go one way. Like maybe there'll be one that doesn't or maybe there'll be one. You know, they have toss up, they have lean, they have likely and they have safe I think is the last category. And it's like some of the likelies maybe will in a super wave or whatever. So there's a really good candidate running in a lean. But, but usually it just all goes one way or the other. And so if you take all the toss ups in the liens and you give them to the Democrats, they win nine seats which gives them a pretty small majority. I don't have the numbers in front of me, whatever that would be like 7, 6, 7 seat majority based on what things are right now. So okay, like I think that's the most likely outcome. Like that's the media, that's the mean outcome. Right. And I think that actually the next most likely outcome is that Democrats do even better than that and like win some of the likely seats.
- [51:13]
JVL
Especially that takes into account what Florida's done, what South Carolina might do. Alabama.
- [51:20]
Tim Miller
Yes, yes. Well, it doesn't have to because it's just like, like that's just the +9, you know, is just like looking at like how many they would, they would gain. Right. So like that was going to be offset by like what happens to these other states. Right. So I, I guess that's your point. So they could, they could squeeze out a couple more and through these gerrymandering things and, and take it down a little bit from that. But like, so the, the short of it and I, and personally I think that the Democrats are doing a lot of likely seats. I'm working on an article to come out maybe in a week or two with like some seats. I think, you know, people are always asking me where, where, like the hinge places where, where could my money work, like what races really matter. I'm going to do something on that soon. So I, because I think the Democrats will end up winning some stretch seats but because of Iran, which we're about to get to next. But like that's pretty close for comfort, you know, like it's like who knows exactly what happens and who knows what other shenanigans will happen. And you know what I mean, like it just, it leaves the margin for error is not that great. It's not as great anymore.
- [52:24]
Sarah Longwell
So basically what you need to win in this environment because I do have the numbers in front of me it's basically best case for Republicans is like 13 seat pickup. Best case for Democrats would be that they, they get, they flip six seats and kind of like results in a wash. So like the absolute best case scenario of every Democrats, this is just a free districting and the fight part. But here's what basically to overcome the whole thing, to hit the stretch seats that Tim is talking about, Dem needs to win the popular vote vote by about 4 percentage points.
- [52:59]
Tim Miller
That's right.
- [52:59]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, so you need it if, and it would have been more like 2 percentage points if you didn't have all these southern states redistricting. But now that you do have the southern states redistricting, it's a four point swing. So that's why I'm talking about the generic ballot, the D plus R because right now we've got a generic ballot that's somewhere between 7 and 10. Like we are seeing a pretty high generic Dem ballot. And this is why when people are like should I just vote harder? I'm like, well we need, we need the very clear things to happen. One, you need Republicans to be depressed and not turn out and not feel like Trump's on the ballot and you need Democrats to be in surge ways excited to go pick up these seats and you got to do some persuasion. Right. Like you do all those things and it does. It's not even hard to think of us being in a popular vote where we Democrats win by more than 4%. Like I think that is is likely as better than likely. It's just that like Republicans are, they really are making it harder now through the redistricting. Like there's a reason that we spent 45 minutes on the rage that everybody feels. It's like they have kicked off a war that for reasons of Democrats own infrastructure rules, own democracy rules, they have now been able to do exactly what Donald Trump wanted which is pick up a lot of seats and make it a lot harder.
- [54:19]
JVL
I'll just throw this out there and then we're going to move on because this is my move. The unpopulous had a piece yesterday about the possibility that. Did you guys see this?
- [54:28]
Tim Miller
That's a great piece.
- [54:31]
JVL
Possible based on just sort of going through how new houses, new the new House is constituted that Republicans could object to the seating of any, any members from majority black districts as being unconstitutional and could then try to do basically a January 6th, we'll move on from there.
- [54:55]
Tim Miller
I'm concerned the post election thing now I think also because real concern. I'm sorry, I know you want to Move on. But I had been saying because Mark Elias and I've talked about this on a couple of YouTube and on Nicole a couple of times. And I'm like, I'm, I was concerned about the gerrymandering and here it's worked out worse than we thought it was going to. And then the other thing I've worked out, other people are talking about canceling elections or voting ice voting locations and we should be vigilant about all that. I just think it's a low risk for a variety of reasons. The post election thing, like if it is true that like the other risk that this brings. Right. Is if the Democrats were going to have a 10 seat cushion. It's kind of like when Doug Mastriano lost the Pennsylvania race, it was like, you're not going to storm the Capitol in Harrisburg when you lost by 20, you know, but if the Democrats have a three seat cushion, then all of a sudden it's like, oh, those California mail in ballots, they didn't come in for two weeks and I don't know if we can count those. And we're going to challenge them and go to the Supreme Court and we're going to keep Mike Johnson as speaker until this is litigated through the courts. Like, I think that now is a very real risk.
- [55:58]
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
- [55:59]
Tim Miller
Great. Okay.
- [56:02]
JVL
There is still a war in Iran. I don't know if you guys knew that.
- [56:05]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [56:06]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, yeah, I'm following it.
- [56:07]
JVL
Barack Ravid keeps telling us every morning it's about to, it's about to be solved. They've got great progress. And then it doesn't, you know, he'll be right one of these days. Very interesting. The life of a stenographer. So do we have any thoughts on things? So you, you spent a lot of time with Bill on the Bob Kakin piece in the Atlantic, which I, I found very persuasive. Bob Kagan making the case that this is, this is a strategic defeat for America in ways that even like Vietnam and Afghanistan were not. This affects a bunch of things going forward in, in ways which are structural. Sarah, just a quick point.
- [56:49]
Sarah Longwell
No, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm with you. Oh, that Kagan piece, that Kagan piece. First of all, I love Bob Kagan so much. And here's the. Can I just. If Bob Kagan and Bill Kristol. Right. I got, I got. People are yelling at me about Bill again. They're like, did you know that Bill supported the Iraq war? I'm like, yes, guys, I've, I've met Him like, I know. Do you know what you do? Do you know what you do with people like Bill Kristol and Bob Kagan right now? You say, look at these previous neocons and how much they hate this Iran war, how bad they think it is, how strategically we're being defeated. Would you please use them right now and like at least mine some credibility out of the fact that they previously supported these things. That's just a discourse point, Bob Kagan's piece. And you guys have to know who Bob Kagan is to appreciate just how incredible this piece is. This is not a guy who is.
- [57:48]
Tim Miller
Can I just give you an anecdote? This is a guy that when Dick Cheney had a bad day and was like, I'm not sure that things are going that well and I need a pick me up about our Middle Eastern adventures, I'd call Bob Kagan and he'd be like, here's the thing, it's not going well right now, but the long game is going the long game. You know, we're going to end in a good place. Like the I he wants deep down, his project was democracy expansion in the Middle East. That was his project.
- [58:20]
Sarah Longwell
And he thinks this Iran war is both insane and lost. He thinks we have lost it strategically and his, I mean, I recommend the piece to everybody because it is characteristically excellent of him. And it is important to understand that Donald Trump is not only, not only have we likely have we lost this war, but we have now set ourselves up like where this is all heading. And again, why I'm desperate for Democrats, elected Democrats to scream and yell about what Donald Trump is doing, tell like, we are going to lose this war and we're going to end up way worse off. The Iranians are going to control this strait and therefore the global oil supply for the foreseeable future because of a thing that US and Israel went and
- [59:06]
Tim Miller
did people do not understand. I mean, maybe we'll be wrong and there's going to be so much tape of me being wrong that, that people can play it until the end of time if they want. Like, I still don't think that most people have any idea how bad the situation is. It's very possible that it's the end of the Bretton woods Post World War II order, the official end. We ended it over this war that had no purpose. We had no interest in really. That was not at all something that was important to America's acute security or geopolitical or economic interest. Nothing. We ended the World War II order for no Reason. And there's a global economic crisis and there's all kinds of. And this is. Kagan gets into this and there's all kinds of unpredictable. Then who knows unintended consequences that are going to build up. And I've been saying this for a while enough now that some people have been like, tim, I thought you said that there were going to be shortages. And shit takes time. Like, it takes like, like the, the. The most acute part of the COVID virus. Like, you know, like when that was really, you know, when it started was. Was. Was what? Right after the LSU national championship. That's what I think about it. Spring of 2019.
- [60:25]
JVL
Yeah, yeah.
- [60:26]
Tim Miller
Joe Biden's spring of 2020. Sorry, sorry. Thank you. It was a 2019 season. So I. Football in the mind. It was spring of 2020. Joe Biden's economic. The fallout that killed Joe Biden's administration was in 2022.
- [60:42]
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
- [60:42]
Tim Miller
Like, like the, the inflation that, like, resulted from all that disruption. So like, shit takes time. Like, the global economy is complicated and. But like that. But like, geopolitically, economically, it's a total catastrophe. Everyone's lives are going to be made materially worse. And he doesn't have it. A clear end game at all. And like, that's where we are. And I just. Some people understand that, but I don't think that like, the average American really has any sense for like, the scale of catastrophe that this is.
- [61:13]
Sarah Longwell
They don't. They only know the impact it's having on them, which is in the form of higher gas prices at the moment. But I think this is so important. We are. If you do compare it to Covid, which is a good comparison. We're in the moment where we're. We're just getting word that maybe we should cancel the plans that we have
- [61:31]
JVL
for two weeks to stop the spread.
- [61:33]
Tim Miller
Yeah, well.
- [61:34]
Sarah Longwell
Well, no. And then like, we're heading into the part where we're wiping down groceries, right? And like, we're not sure if the package is good that we got from Uber Eats is going to contain the virus or whatever it is. Years until it happens. But the other thing is these things compound on each other, right? The thing that happened to Joe Biden was both supply chain disruption that was downstream from COVID and Russia invaded Ukraine. This is something that's driving me crazy as people keep being like, well, gas prices were high under Biden. I'm like, because Russia invaded Ukraine. Like, that was the thing that disrupted that then, which, you know, now I think we're just on Russia's side on this. We're not going to do anything. Ukraine, by the way, still holding strong. Still holding strong. Gaining. Way to go. And this is, people should take positive energy from that in terms of being willing to fight back. But anyway, I just, I agree with Tim that we are just in the beginnings of this and that. So we are going to head into these. This is why I remain optimistic about the midterms. So we're going to head into the summer months, the busy travel summer months. I was just, I went home for Mother's Day, so I was in rural central Pennsylvania. Gas is five bucks. Like, it's almost five bucks. Isn't it great if it gets to seven bucks in places like that? And like, it's just at the beginning of this part, right. They're, they're talking about a gas tax now or a gas tax relief like the Republicans, which, by the way, nice conservative policy there, guys. They're going to, they're going to drop the gas tax.
- [63:02]
Tim Miller
That 18 cents is really going to do a huge difference.
- [63:05]
Sarah Longwell
They're also going to tap the strategic reserves. They're doing everything they can to try to waive this away and it's just going to get worse.
- [63:12]
Tim Miller
We're taping this in the morning. As you mentioned, crude oil is up 3% this morning.
- [63:16]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [63:16]
Tim Miller
Like, it's up to 101. That's WTI.
- [63:19]
JVL
That's good, though, because we have so much oil in America that it means we're going to be making money. Hand over fest.
- [63:24]
Sarah Longwell
Hey, guys, quick reminder that Sam and Tim and me and Will Summer, we're all going to be in San Diego next week, May 20, and in LA on the 21st. There are still some tickets available. Go get them. That. You know what the solution to how we all feel right now, the frustration we're all feeling, it always feels good to be together. Let's get together, hash it out. Let's talk about where things stand. Come see us. You'll feel better when you're with the Bulwark community. So go to the bulwark.com events, get your tickets, then enjoy the episode.
- [64:01]
Tim Miller
All right.
- [64:01]
JVL
We're starting to run real long.
- [64:03]
Tim Miller
Who cares?
- [64:03]
JVL
Tim, you had wanted to road test your Wednesday triad because you're filling in for me on Wednesday. I wanted to talk a little bit about the Trump golden statue, but we don't have to do that. I very much want to talk about America's sweetheart, though.
- [64:18]
Tim Miller
And so being in Costa Rica.
- [64:23]
JVL
Mary. Mary. Yeah. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- [64:26]
Tim Miller
Yeah, sure. We can do both I got.
- [64:27]
JVL
She's married, she's starting a new life, she's found love. I mean, we're gonna get to this. So, Tim, go ahead.
- [64:33]
Sarah Longwell
Why don't you.
- [64:34]
Tim Miller
We could just do this. You guys did 50 minutes on platner discourse on the secret pod. If people missed, they can go check that out. And there was a lot to say there. I endorsed a lot of what JBL said. I was a rare person to endorse this point, but I wanted to kind of put more of a campaign lens on it, because the particular point that I agreed with you the strongest on was not really even about Graham Platner the person at all, but about the notion that somebody like Graham Platner could become the Democratic nominee. And, like, there is just this strange pushback on this, which you got into in the Monday triad, where it's like, well, that's crazy. And it's like, well, he couldn't do it. He would just be. Have been in the Senate, and he's an oyster farmer, and he can't do this and he can't do that. And it's like, you know, you address some of the weaknesses of it. Like, of course. Like, can a main oyster farmer do well with black voters? Who knows? Like, you know, James Carvel's rule of thumb is always like, you got to win the black church to be able to win a Democratic primary. So maybe that's not Graham Platner. And fine. But, like, this ties directly to the Iran conversation. I just. I think that there are two facts that I want to put into place. One is that going back to 2016, which you talked about in the 2012. Really, which you talked about in the. In the newsletter. Like, there have been kind of insane results in the presidential primaries because the people are unhappy with the party leadership of all parties. Like, it didn't end up turning out insane on the Democratic side, but, like, was pretty damn close. Like, say what you want. Like, Pete Buttigieg won Iowa. Like, a fucking mayor from. That's where we are. So we're in, what, May of 2026. So if in May of 2018, somebody come on a podcast and was like, I think that a mayor that you've never heard of from the fourth biggest city in Indiana might win the Iowa caucuses, everybody would be like, that's crazy. Right? There's no way. Right. And so then Trump, and then in 2012, I was like, ah, the Newton Santorum thing was kind of an outlier. You know, they did well because Romney was weak. That was obviously A mistake. Like, you should, looking back on it in 2016, everyone should have looked at the Herman Cain phenomenon and all that. It's like, oh, wait, Republicans want something different. They just didn't get what they wanted, right? And then, so then Trump ends up winning in 16. And so all I'm just saying is, like, if you just look at the last four presidential primaries, it's very obvious that people in both parties are interested in something different and outside or somebody to shake it up. Whether that's Platner, somebody else like Talarico, somebody new, I don't know. And maybe it won't be anybody, but, like, you can't deny that that's happened. And then you layer on top of that what we were just talking about with Iran. And I just, I don't think people understand, like, the degree of rage that's going to happen. Like, we woke up one morning and we were in a war with Iran, for nobody understood why. There was no discussion about it, there was no vote on it. And now they're going to suffer material economic consequences, like, way worse than Iraq. I think about all the things that the Iraq war did to. To dis. To shake up our politics because of how people were on that. Like, maybe there won't be as many, like, deaths as there were in the Iraq war, right? But I just. But like, as far as, like the scale of impact on everyone's day to day life, like, this is already greater, right? Like, because, you know, there was not like a tangible thing like, it different if you knew somebody that went to the war or whatever, like, obviously. But like, for everyone in the country, they've suffered consequences, census, there's going to be ma. So there already is massive rage. There already is a sense that voters want an outsider. There are like, there is this coming disaster in the Iran war and it's like the Democrat, if you're a Democratic politician that wants to be successful in this moment, like, you need to channel the rage. Like, I'm sorry, you need to do that. And like, that's not me. We just did the whole podcast. Like, I wish we could have Burkean conservatism. You know, incremental change. Like, that's what I would prefer. But, like, that is not gonna fucking sell, you know, And I think that there are, you know, more wholesome ways to talk about change and ways that are more to my tastes and there are ways that are less to my taste. But anyways, my triad for Wednesday is basically just like, looking at this kind of election right now, like, There are a couple of different examples. There's like Platner in Maine, which I talk about. There's Moulton in Massachusetts on the Republican side, there's Massey in Kentucky. And like, let's like, look at like, those are totally different, ideologically different, but they are like channeling the populist rage. They're saying, I'm not going in there to just do what the establishment wants me to do. I'm going to go in there, I'm going to shake things up. I'm going to say, fuck the party leadership, fuck Chuck Schumer, fuck John Thune, fuck Apac, fuck whatever. Like, whatever the entrenched interests are. And I'm going to go in there and do something different. That's what people want. And so I think the Democratic politicians should try to channel that energy in ways that are healthy. And B, I think from an analytical standpoint, I think dismissing the fact that somebody who channels that successfully could win in 2028 is insane. That's my newsletter.
- [69:31]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, so let me agree with everything except the specific Graham Platner part about him being able to win a presidential election, because I don't think that's true for a lot of the just political reasons, black voters. Also his particular baggage that I think plays okay in Maine and not nationally. But like, whatever. I want to stomp on something JVL wrote in his very excellent triad yesterday. And it's important, but to know about who we are and how we are talking about politics. There is our bespoke interest in politics where I'd love to talk about, you know, education reform and the national debt and be my deficit hawk self. Then there's what we see with voters.
- [70:08]
Tim Miller
I've got good news for you. The debt might become important again soon when we're paying.
- [70:12]
Sarah Longwell
It's outrageous. It's outrageous. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Donald Trump is running up the debt. And I, and let me just tell you Republicans, this is something where as the older you get, you start to see patterns that you can't see when you're in your 20s or early 30s. I have now seen too many Republican presidents run on talking about the debt and then they drive the debt up. They are, they are some of the main drivers of the debts. And I've actually watched Democrats, you in
- [70:38]
JVL
fact seen all of the Republican presidents of your life, all of them like Donald Trump.
- [70:43]
Sarah Longwell
Donald Trump is absolutely obliterating our debt right now. Okay. Running anyway. This is not a fight, though, about whether to be more centrist or more progressive. That is a. That is A fight that is taking place, that is between people who want to fight for power in political discourse. I guess if you listen to voters, voters are very clear on what they want. They don't care about whether a candidate is more centrist or more progressive. They want them to be more aggressive. They want them to be somebody who talks like a regular human and who is going to go out there and fight Donald Trump and fight Republicans and bring the energy that they want to see right now. Because they need avatars for their rage. Right? They're like, I want a political avatar to go and fight these guys. Which. Yes. Does it sound like the way Republicans talked about Trump? Like, they use Trump as their hammer in the wrecking ball? It kind of does. But we're just.
- [71:37]
Tim Miller
In the article I wrote, I hate that I sound like a Breitbart article from 2015. I don't want to. I don't want to. But, like, it's just. The world is what the world is the world.
- [71:45]
Sarah Longwell
And like, I read David French, who I love. I love David French, but he wrote this piece about Platner in the New York Times, and he actually linked to the focus group piece that I wrote about Platner, about how voters don't care. And David was like, I care.
- [71:59]
Tim Miller
Care.
- [71:59]
Sarah Longwell
You know, he cares. And I think that there's like, okay, let's. Let's say I care, too. I really want. I want candidates to be decent. But I also think that Platner, he's apologized number one. He is trying to reckon with his past. And so I'm going to judge him on what he says right now, today, now, am I going to agree with all of his policies? Some, yes, some no. Here's what. But it doesn't matter. Susan Collins has been enabling Donald Trump's fascist rise for the last. And I gave her. I gave her her due in the early cycles, and she has let me down every single time. And so am I going to accept Platner now as the one, as the person who might beat her? I am. I am. And you know what? Even that. But me, maybe I'm holding my nose to do it, but you know what? The voters just don't care. And you can be, as a pundit, you could be like, I want the world to be different. It's not like. And if you think that, and this is the problem, if you've tolerated or watched Donald Trump walk all over you for a decade and you think Democrats aren't going to wake up one day now and be enraged about it, like, you're wrong. Like, they are going. They are furious. And you're going to see the expression of that in a lot of the candidates that are running. But you know what? It's not. They're not all grim. Like, they're also Abigail Spanbergers. They're also. Also Mikey Sheryl's. You can have a big tent of people who run, but you better bet that right now the voters are in the mood for someone who's going to go punch.
- [73:29]
Tim Miller
Can I say one other thing about. And I'm putting David French in a totally different category on this because he's been totally morally consistent, and I absolutely understand his perspective.
- [73:37]
Sarah Longwell
Total.
- [73:37]
Tim Miller
There's another category of right of Maga, or Republican, anti, anti maga, whatever you want to call it. There's another category of right pundit who wants to grab on the Platner discourse and be like, you guys are going along with somebody that, you know, is. Has bad character. And, like, what I would like to say to them is, like, if you really cared, like, if this was not about positioning, if this was not about, you know, picking a fight with us to seem more conservative and to butch up with your audience, like, if you really cared about decency and character, like, there was a really good opportunity to deal with this in 2024, like, we could have had Kamala Harris and Tim Walls, who you can say whatever you want of them about them and their policies or their ideas, but they were people of good character. And Tim Walls in particular is a man of really good character who is smeared and attacked and shit on by all these very same people who are coming at us now, you know, over, like, our analysis of the main center race. And it's like that. That was the chance we could have done it. Like, we all could have moved forward and everybody could have. We could have gone back to fighting over policies and disagreements. And the Harris Walls administration, we had a bunch of disagreements with them that we would have talked about, just like we did with, during the Biden administration on Afghanistan or whatever. Right?
- [74:57]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [74:57]
Tim Miller
And like, that didn't happen. They reelected the most disgusting, morally depraved person in the history of American politics after he tried to end our democracy, after he spurred an attack on the Capitol and they put him back into power. And so now the question is, how do you stop that movement? How do you stop it? And unfortunately, we don't have a lot of great options as we've been discussing for the whole first 30 minutes. We don't, because there is a wannabe authoritarian who wants to break every rule, who doesn't care one whit about car character. And so if a helpful endeavor to that is to find other outsider candidates who are a little gruff, who are a little rough around the edges, who have some positions I don't like. Okay. I don't know what to tell you. I mean, I can sit around and we can sniff my own farts, and I can talk about how much I love character while American empire is eradicated and while we go into a MAGA authoritarian country. Like, we can do that, but, like, that's not what I want to do. So that's not what my view is on the right thing to do. So, like, I just. I just totally reject anybody on that side's, like, lecture of me about, like, you guys are bringing you all of them.
- [76:12]
Sarah Longwell
All right? And on this point, here's the thing. They have carried water for Donald Trump in all of the right. They refuse to endorse Kamala and. And walls. Okay? They've carried water all kinds of ways. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right, right. Never in the history of Donald Trump's existence has he apologized for the vile shit that he says. He's never issued an apology. He's never acted in a way that has demonstrated growth or a kind of looking back and taking stock of what he's done in the past and say, I shouldn't have done that. It was wrong. Graham Platner is. And I'm sorry. And I also want to make a distinction because I talked. I posted something that in my head was about Platner, but people sort of read, like, maybe it's about Marjorie Taylor Greene or Tucker Carlson or other people who are in this moment saying, and jvl, we can use this to transition to MTG if you want. But they're saying, like, yes, we should, you know, well, we can forgive them and be allies with them now. Okay, that is not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is if you apologize for the vile stuff that you said and did or. Or. And. And you explain things and you talk about your growth and you talk about your trajectory, like, I'm willing then to say, okay, I'm gonna listen to what you say now, and I'm gonna judge you by what you say now today. And if Graham Platner has done that, like, he has done, like, actual soul searching and actually apologized and actually said he was wrong, so I can reject the things that he did in the past, and I'll. I'll take him. And. And so, like, then you get into this, like, separate level fight with, like, how sincere is he? And I'm like, okay, well, I don't know. I can't see into his heart. But I will say I'm gonna take him as word. I'm gonna judge him by what he says now. So if I hear him say something anti Semitic now, and I hear him say something vile and racist or horrible to women, I will judge him for that right now. But that's not what I hear from him. That's not the race that he's running. And so Marjorie Taylor Greene is still saying insane things across all kinds of different things. Tucker Carlson is still saying vile things across all kinds of issues.
- [78:20]
Tim Miller
Thomas Massie, who I defend in the same article that I'm about to find that everybody will be upset about is like, has a super PAC currently running an ad that is anti Semitic and talking about how the gay mafia is coming for his opponent or whatever? And it's like, that's horrible. That's horrible. But, like, okay, the choices are Thomas David. Yeah, the rainbow star of David. It's like, okay, like, that's horrible. I don't know what else to tell you, though. Thomas Massie at least is doing the right thing on the Iran war and the Epstein files. Like, these are the. These are the choices we have. Unfortunately, we're like, I would like to be in a different democracy, but we're not. We're in this one.
- [78:56]
JVL
So let's talk about someone who we can all get behind, Marjorie Taylor Greene. So Laura Loomer, who, to the best of my knowledge and understanding, enjoys putting Arby's sandwiches in her pants.
- [79:13]
Tim Miller
No, it was Marjorie. She said that. Marjorie does.
- [79:15]
JVL
I know, I know. See, I'm flipping around.
- [79:19]
Tim Miller
Sorry. I'm sorry.
- [79:20]
JVL
Flipping it.
- [79:21]
Sarah Longwell
I did my best to ignore this the first time it happened. Don't. Don't rebuild it up.
- [79:26]
JVL
Laura went on a real tirade against Marjorie Taylor Greene, who, with her, her new beau, who has left his job on the Trump propaganda network for love. And he and Marjorie have been posting, I guess, on the gram pictures from Costa Rica. And Laura Loomer now has a whole set of theories about Marjorie Taylor Greene being, I don't know, a foreign agent or something, who has been getting dual citizenship with Costa Rica and was doing that while in Congress. And anyway, it's a whole thing. I can't quite make heads or tail of it. What I take from all of this is that Marjorie Taylor Greene's motives were, in fact, pure. She wasn't setting herself up to run for president. She's another chapter in her life. Yeah, that's right. She's just starting a new chapter in her life with love. And I think that's great. And this is the, this is honestly the most we could possibly hope for from people who are formerly maga. That's what I put to you. I don't think that Marjorie, I don't think Marjorie Taylor Greene is ever going to be where we are on, on many or most or even possibly any issues. But someone who's willing to look at this period in her life and just say, that was a huge mistake. I gotta just turn the page on this and start over. And I'm gonna start by looking for love and trying to live in love.
- [80:57]
Sarah Longwell
Can we wish her well and say goodbye? I'd like to say goodbye for now.
- [81:02]
Tim Miller
That's fine. For now. For now. And maybe she can have a second coming. I am so just like emotionally aligned with what she is doing. And I, in this one case, I want to hold her up. I was not with you before jbl, but in this one case, because there's so many people in Congress who should move to Costa Rica. Half of Congress should move to Costa Rica. Do you know we had a stat. Thank you to Ansell. EVs helping me with the article for tomorrow. I did not realize this. I knew that we had the oldest Congress of all time, but I did not realize this until she added the fact to my article. The governors in the country are actually older. On average, we have the oldest Congress ever and the governors are older. And it's just like, enjoy retirement. Like, Marjorie Tarraen is doing this in youth. And like relatively she has, she has some good years ahead of her. If you're 72 and you're not adding anything constructive to what is happening in Washington, or worse, if you're a Republican that knows better, that knows what Donald Trump is corrupt, that knows he's anti Democratic, that knows his war is stupid, that knows the tariffs are stupid and you don't like it. But you know that if you said something, you would be kicked out by your voters. One option that is available to you is to take your spouse and move to Costa Rica and live Pura Vida. And I think that's great. Your grandkids can come visit you. Think about how great Thanksgiving and Christmas is. Now your grandkids are visiting you on the beach. You've made enough money, you can fly them in. That is a great life. That is a much more fulfilling life than being 73 years old and pretending like you didn't see that Donald Trump sent 55 bleeds last night about how Barack Obama should be jailed. Cuz that is the Life that about 220 Republicans in Congress, or I guess you had the Senate, 270 or so Republicans are living right now pretending like they don't know better. And you know, I think the Marjorie Taylor Greene plan, there's the other option. Right. Which is the fighting plan. I'd like that. The Liz Cheney. But there's other options available to you. But there's something nice and pure about what Marjorie Taylor Green is doing. And I would suggest the same for like, I don't know, Dan Sullivan counterpoint.
- [83:21]
JVL
If all those people leave, they will be replaced by younger people who are actually true believers.
- [83:26]
Tim Miller
Well, but then we can fight the real. Then we can fight the real enemy.
- [83:30]
JVL
Fair.
- [83:31]
Tim Miller
Should be fine.
- [83:31]
JVL
All right. Sarah, would you like to compliment Marjorie?
- [83:35]
Sarah Longwell
No, but I, I, I, I, I wish her, I wish her the best. I actually, because this was less, I was less interested in her and I was more interested in the fact that, that Donald Trump is sending Carrie Lake to the way the Cool Runnings guys are to go to go join the Jamaican bobsled team. She doesn't deserve them. She does not deserve the Cool Runnings gang. Who was the other one? There's like some other weirdo. Oh, Doug Mastriano. They're basically. This is what, this is like a funny thing. They are taking.
- [84:08]
JVL
Is he being sent to like Slovakia or someplace? Yeah.
- [84:11]
Sarah Longwell
They're making ambassadors out of their worst losers and trying to get them out of the country.
- [84:17]
JVL
Failed Senate candidates. Yeah.
- [84:18]
Tim Miller
I don't know what's happening in Jamaica, but JA is not providing right now for them at least when it comes to diplomacy. And I agree with you, Sarah. I want JAH to provide a bounty to the people of Jamaica. Hopefully Carrie Lake doesn't menace too many people there. Doesn't touch them when they don't want to be touched. Doesn't make up lies about them. Scream about, scream in their face. Hopefully she can be quarantined in the ambassador's residence.
- [84:47]
JVL
Her temperament says diplomat. That's, that's the type of person you want represent. Just even keeled. Makes friends wherever they go. Tactful, discreet.
- [85:02]
Tim Miller
It's good.
- [85:03]
JVL
Only the best people. Guys, this is maybe the longest show we've ever done and maybe the best. It's the good people.
- [85:13]
Tim Miller
The goodest.
- [85:14]
JVL
Many people are saying the three of us will be together in a room tomorrow. I'm very excited about that.
- [85:19]
Tim Miller
Oh, that's true.
- [85:21]
JVL
It is. And we'll be back again on this show taped at a normal hour. Next.
- [85:28]
Tim Miller
Should we do a bonus video tomorrow for all you should.
- [85:30]
Sarah Longwell
I was just thinking that Bonus next level. We should just pop into the like a members only.
- [85:34]
Tim Miller
Like a bonus next level.
- [85:35]
Sarah Longwell
We'll put our hands on each other.
- [85:37]
JVL
Good luck, America.
- [85:38]
Tim Miller
Pura Vita.