1089: Ben Shapiro's Tears Aren't Enough. The Iran War Hawks Owe Us More.

Summary

The Next Level – Episode 1089

Title: Ben Shapiro's Tears Aren't Enough. The Iran War Hawks Owe Us More.
Date: June 17, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)

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Overview of the Episode

This episode dives deeply into the latest developments in U.S. foreign policy regarding Iran, the political fallout for Republicans, and the shifting dynamics in U.S.-Israel relations. The hosts critically examine the so-called “deal” with Iran—a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) rather than a formal agreement—and its repercussions, particularly for MAGA-aligned neocons and pro-Israel war hawks. Through their trademark banter and sharp commentary, Sarah, Tim, and JVL offer insight into the crumbling narratives of those who championed this war, the fallout for the Republican establishment, and the ongoing spectacle of Trump-centered governance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Deal” with Iran: Not Quite a Deal

• Nature of the Agreement: The "strongest deal in history," touted by the Trump administration, is revealed to be a "memorandum of understanding" rather than an actual, binding deal. There’s skepticism about whether this process settles anything—details are vague, and most terms are punted down the road (01:34–04:28).

• Substance and Leaks: Leaked documents and reporting indicate that Iran will get significant sanctions relief right away, especially authorization to sell oil and other products on the free market (06:04–07:54). There’s also mention of the U.S. financing an “economic rehabilitation” fund for Iran worth at least $300 billion—a staggering concession.

  • Notable Quote:
    Tim Miller (07:33): “What we know is that the leaked document and the Wall Street Journal reporting both indicate that the blockade will be finished and that Iran will begin to be able to sell their oil on the market. And that seems like a pretty nice deal for the Iranians.”

• U.S.-Israel Tension: Israel has not even seen the Memorandum as of recording; the Israeli public’s support for Trump is rapidly eroding (03:32–04:07).

2. The MAGA Neocon Dilemma & War Hawk Regret

• Political Fallout for Republicans:
  • JD Vance is publicly tasked with selling the Iran MoU, while Marco Rubio keeps a distance, reflecting a schism over how to handle the fallout and who takes the blame or credit (12:04–14:46).
  • Realpolitik: JVL points out that being associated with the “deal” could backfire for Vance, as it’s easier to get tied to future negative outcomes.
  • Notable Quote:
    JVL (15:05): “This puts his fingerprints on Iran in ways that make it harder for him to later say, ‘I had nothing to do with that thing.’”
• Host Reactions to War Hawks:
  • The hosts highlight the hypocrisy and lack of accountability among right-wing war cheerleaders like Lindsey Graham, Mark Levin, Ben Domenech, Mark Thiessen, and the Wall Street Journal editorial board, who now distance themselves from the disastrous results.
  • Notable Quote:
    Sarah Longwell (30:15): “When I watch Eric Erickson now publishing Substacks to be like, ‘Trump’s a clown,’ I’m like, yeah, and we always knew it. And the fact that you didn’t calls into question every brain cell that ever existed.”
  • The hosts want genuine admissions of error from pundits rather than empty handwringing (49:49–51:09).

3. Trump World: Transactional Foreign Policy & Personal Interest

• Self-Dealing and Corruption Concerns:
  • The panel explores how personal business interests—especially those of Trump’s family and associates like Jared Kushner—have colored the entire Iran process. Kushner’s outsized, secretive role in negotiations is flagged as scandalous, with clear conflicts of interest given his Middle East business ties (19:35–21:00).
  • Notable Quote:
    Sarah Longwell (21:44): “If the goal…is to have a negotiation with Iran, we didn’t need to bomb them to get a negotiation.”
• Shaky U.S.-Israel Alliance:
  • Trump’s willingness to abandon Israel after having been pushed into war for their interests marks a significant turning point (22:10–23:01).
  • Netanyahu’s party, recognizing the shift in Trump’s stance, pulls Trump-centric campaign ads—as Israeli public opinion sours on him (22:44–24:00).
  • Notable Quote:
    Tim Miller (24:00): “You have a partner in this war that is erratic and non-trustworthy and has screwed over every business partner he’s ever been with in anything. And you’re pushing us into it on pretenses that are not really real.”

4. Accountability & Future of the Neocons

• Call for Contrition:
  • JVL, Tim, and Sarah agree that “converts” who now recognize the folly of the war need to go further—admit error, support meaningful checks on Trump, and stop providing permission structures for these debacles (49:49–52:20).
  • Notable Quote:
    Tim Miller (52:20): “Because my predictive model about Trump was so off that I thought it might be smart to go to a war with Iran with him… I’m gonna need to endorse the Democrats for Senate to win the Senate, because we’re gonna need to check him as much as possible.”

5. Pop Culture & Political Spectacle

• UFC and Patriotic Display:
  • Trump's fusion of entertainment and politics is on full display as he turns July 4th into a Trump rally at the Lincoln Memorial (56:18–58:20).
  • The hosts reflect on the bleakness and corruption of Trump’s UFC spectacle, particularly the extensive use of the White House for personal financial gain (60:05–62:47).
  • Notable Quote:
    Sarah Longwell (62:47): “The level of corruption that took place at that UFC fight was staggering. Yes, it was tacky and it was gross and all of those things, but it was also wildly corrupt from top to bottom.”

6. The Gavin Newsom Investigation: The New Normal?

• Weaponizing Justice:
  • Gavin Newsom embraces the optics of being targeted by Trump’s DOJ, reframing it as evidence of effective resistance and fundraising potential (64:44–66:52).
  • Tim and JVL warn that criminal investigations of Democratic nominees, no matter how unfounded, will be routine as a political weapon going forward (67:32–68:08).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Iran deal:
  • Sarah Longwell (07:54): “If that truly is it, the extent to which this is a disaster for Donald Trump and the United States and a boon for Iran cannot be overstated.”
• On the futility of trusting Trump:
  • Tim Miller (24:00): “He was a totally unreliable partner… It’s not going to be good.”
• On accountability for GOP war hawks:
  • Sarah Longwell (41:23): “For them, it was going to be the thing that made right all the concessions that they made, all of the things that they sold themselves out for… and so to have it be this bad is a double whammy.”
• On Trump’s transactional approach:
  • JVL (17:01): “Couldn’t we wind up a year from now, basically, on Iran’s side? Trump loves dictators… why not just switch sides here? Is that crazy?”
• On the future of Democratic nominees:
  • Tim Miller (67:48): “There’s nothing that can happen between now and 2028… that the Democrats could nominate [so] that Todd Blanche’s Department of Justice won’t have one or many open federal inquiries into.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:18–05:00: Breaking down the real substance (or lack thereof) in the Iran “deal.”
• 06:04–08:24: Leaked details about sanctions relief to Iran and Biden administration spin.
• 12:04–16:09: Internal GOP dynamics: JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and elite/mass Republican splits.
• 22:10–24:00: Israel’s role, Netanyahu’s failed strategy, and Trump’s unreliability.
• 30:08–31:47: Why it was always a mistake to trust Trump, even for Israel hawks.
• 41:17–45:30: The conservative media’s refusal to admit error; Wall Street Journal editorial board’s contradictions laid bare.
• 56:18–59:48: Trump’s July 4th rally; the blending of patriotism with personal spectacle.
• 64:40–69:58: Gavin Newsom’s investigation, the weaponization of the DOJ, and the implications for political norms.

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Episode Tone and Language

• Candid and sharp, with plenty of irreverence and pointed humor.
• The hosts blend insider knowledge, policy analysis, and personal asides; some snark is reserved for those finally realizing Trump’s dangers—especially in the conservative media.
• Frequent metaphors and pop culture references (real estate, “conversion stories,” sports, etc.).
• Consistent through-line: “We told you so. Why did you expect anything else?”

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Conclusion: Bottom Line

This episode offers a scathing post-mortem on America’s latest failed adventure in Iran, the Republican faction that championed it, and the ongoing corruption and spectacle of Trump-era politics. The hosts call for genuine accountability among right-wing pundits and politicians who enabled disaster and warn that the weaponization of government and institutions will only intensify—unless the lesson is truly learned, and publicly admitted, by the converts who now find themselves drinking Ben Shapiro’s tears.

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Transcript

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[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

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[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Tim Miller]

Are the maga neocons? Are any of them converts? Because I want a drinking Ben Shapiro's tears mug. I get that they're little tears. Maybe not a mug. Maybe like a sippy cup shot glass. Hello, everyone.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We got a big day because the deal, the strongest deal in history, the deal 47 years in the making, is finally here. Sort of. It's not a. Not an actual deal. It's a memorandum of understanding and we it has been docusigned and it'll be formally signed maybe on Friday. And then we begin a process of 60 days which could possibly be extended. And there are a bunch of things which they will work out later. But don't worry, don't worry. It's great.

[Tim Miller]

So you're saying JVL was not always right then because you said that there was going to be a deal on Sunday and you were doing a victory lap about how right you were about how the deal came on Sunday. But now this is the deal.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I said they would do that.

[Tim Miller]

There's not a deal.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is the conversation.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Thank you. Thank you. Because guys, I was as right as I've been about anything since I said that Donald Trump would claim the election was stolen in 2020 and would run for president in 2024. Remember when I said that it was in October of 2020.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I missed it between the Fetterman takes. But. But just kidding. No.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

John Fetterman wasn't even a glisten in

[Sarah Longwell]

my eye when you, when you said this on the secret pod. Because we're on the secret pod and you laid this out. And I do think you were deeply right about all the psychology of Trump, that Trump wanted to announce it on his UFC fight, that it was about his birthday. It was about spectacle, every part of that. It was so on the nose. Perfect. My pushback at the time, though, I'm going to stand by this. This is going to, for me, going to be one of these. JBL is right. Sarah's also right, because I was kind of like, okay, counterpoint, Israel gets a vote on this. Right. And it looks like Israel.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe they haven't seen the memorandum yet. So.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. But I'm not sure Israel is going to go along with this. And may, they just released a new poll showing Israeli support for Donald Trump and the flip that it's made in the last three weeks. They are not happy.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, that's a shame.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know.

[Tim Miller]

That's really too bad.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Wait, so the Israeli public thought that Trump would never turn on them?

[Tim Miller]

Hmm. That's interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

But jbl, here's my question to you, just to test the proposition of how right you are. Is this isn't a deal, though, Right. Like, my pushback was kind of like. But is it. Would it be a deal?

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I said it wouldn't be a deal. I said it'll be a memorandum of understanding that settles nothing and punts everything further down the road. Like, that's. That what it means to be a deal is that Donald Trump is going to get the fuck out of dodge. That's what it means. And everything else after that will be negotiated later. And that's what we're getting.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, here's. Here's what I think.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I think there's done with Iran.

[Tim Miller]

He done.

[Sarah Longwell]

One option is Trump gives Iran everything they want. Seems like that seems like a pretty good option. Two is Israel continues to fight with Lebanon. Other things happen in the meantime and hostilities reignite is the second option. The third option is they just continue to kick the can down the road and. Right. Those are the three options. I see. Does anyone see a different one?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Well, number two is not happening.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

So.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And it's either downtown gives them everything what they want, or we earn a muddle, you know, and like, things just sort of tumble forward. But.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Well, no, I think. Well, listen, we can get to the Israel question later because Israel is going to be a real fork in the road, right. And they are going to have to decide do they cross Trump and lose their last political ally in America or do they just bite down on a stick and do what he demands they do?

[Tim Miller]

Should be interesting. I look forward to talking about that. On the. On the deal. We still don't really know, right? I mean, the reports are, as we're taping this, Israel hasn't seen the deal, so they can't be a party to a deal they haven't seen. And, and the administration doesn't put it out. They're going to probably put it out after. It's so confident about it.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

They're so proud of it.

[Tim Miller]

Good. It is.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

And it's such a great deal that they want to make sure they hide it for as long as possible, which is famously what people do in these situations.

[Tim Miller]

There is some leaks, though. The Wall Street Journal has a leak that Iran is going to be able to immediately begin selling oil and other related industrial products without sanction on the free market. That's interesting. I was interested to see the story because there's also this leaked doc going around. A fellow at Hudson, Josh Block, has posted this, and it includes some real doozies. The United States undertakes to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ensuring financing of at least. At least 300 billion. At least. At least 300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan will be formulated within the next 60 days. So that's interesting, but in case you're like, okay, well, maybe this is fake. Maybe this is Iranian disinformation.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

JD Vance was asked about the 300 billion number the other day and he didn't say no.

[Tim Miller]

He didn't say no. But here we go. This is number 10.10 the United States undertakes immediately after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding, not after the deal. After the MoU, the US Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives in all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation and the like.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Mm.

[Tim Miller]

Again, they're not telling us what's in the deal, so it's hard to discuss it on the merits. What we know is that the leaked document and the Wall Street Journal reporting both indicate that the thing that will happen immediately on Friday is that the blockade will be finished and that Iran will begin to be able to sell their oil on the market. And that seems like a pretty nice deal for the Iranians.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I mean, if the leaked thing, when I read the leak thing and this is what some people are reacting to, if that truly is it, the extent to which this is a disaster for Donald Trump and the United States and a boon for Iran cannot be overstated. You know, this is what I was thinking. People say that Donald Trump doesn't celebrate pride, but I think giving 300 billion to the gay son of the Ayatollah Khomeini is. I. I think that's how Trump's celebrating pride.

[Tim Miller]

That's nice. I'd like to trickle down.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

He's gay. People are saying, you know something I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

People are saying that the Junior Ayatollah is gay. Yeah. You haven't heard that. That's out there.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Thought he was married and his wife and kids were killed during the bombing.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, Tim, we might have to explain to JVL about them be him being married and having kids. It's not the.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Would not be the first homosexual to have a child. Desire a child.

[Sarah Longwell]

Would not be, especially in a place like Iran.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Again, amazing for the deis that Iran got a gay leader before America.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. You never know. Also, the other thing that was in there that I found interesting is so, so, so much of what the administration is doing right now is playing semantics with language. So. Right. So you've got. The other telling thing is that they've got JD out there selling this and not Rubio. Right. Like, who do you send out to humiliate yourself in front of people? Not Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio is not touching this. In fact, some of the leaked reporting says that, you know, Rubio, Ratcliffe and Heg, Seth, but who cares. Are all really opposed to this deal.

[Tim Miller]

Right? Obviously, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Because this was cooked up by Woff and Jared, who probably at Trump's behest. Who's Trump saying, like, just get us out of here. But one of the tricky things is that JD Vance was on Hannity last night saying, well, not a single American taxpayer dollar. And you're like, right. Because you're unfreezing the funds that we have had frozen because there's the largest state sponsor of terror.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean, our dollars did also go to the billions that precipitated the agreement. So, you know, we've already spent billions of our dollars, and then you're unfreezing additional dollars for Them, which I assume we'll end up having to, you know, use additional of our taxpayer dollars and weapons to challenge, you know, whatever it is that they spend their money on, which is not going to be, you know, economic development for the Iranian people and new. New school. New schools for their children. They're going to be acquiring more weapons that we're going to have to defend. And this is all part of the same stupid nonsense, right? It's like we're paying for the weapons that we're using to bomb them with and the weapons that we're.

[Sarah Longwell]

That we're going to have to defend against ultimately. One other thing that I thought was a funny piece of linguistical that I'm trying to get with is this idea that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to issue tolls.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Never.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not at all.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Never be any tolls.

[Tim Miller]

Never.

[Sarah Longwell]

No fees, on the other hand, seem to be on the table.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Very different.

[Tim Miller]

It's ceqa.

[Sarah Longwell]

Very different.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to have a sequel.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I'm sorry, Sarah, I thought, as a good conservative that you thought that market forces should really be allowed to work and that costs should be attributed as directly as possible to people, right? This is, this is the tragedy of the commons. Right. And so if everybody's just allowed to go back and forth through the straight, you could use all the straight up. And so you need to have a system of fees to make sure that it's all five by five. Michael.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, as much as I like a good capitalistic structure, that's not what this is. This is something that was free before and under international jurisdiction that the Iranians would now be charging not a toll, but a fee to use because it's theirs.

[Tim Miller]

Can I offer a counter, like a slightly counter take on Jade on the JD Humiliation tour?

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Yeah, please. I want to know because I was going to ask you guys if he has been forced to do this as penance for opposing the war in the first place.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe. Or maybe he wanted to and raised his aunt. He's also on his book tour, which, spoiler alert, me and JVL are going to be having a live reading of JD Vance's new book, Communion tomorrow afternoon. So come hang out with us on Wednesday. Make sure to press the alarm bell on the YouTube channel.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Bring your cigarettes.

[Tim Miller]

It will be nice.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guys, that's going to take you, like, days.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to do select passages.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, great.

[Tim Miller]

But if people really like it, maybe we'll do. We'll continue through the week. I don't know. We don't know, we'll see how it goes. But he's on his book tour already, so he's already going to have to be defending it. And Marco is doing grown up business at the G7, doing actual diplomacy. So part of this I think is circumstantial. Part of this is JD Wanted to be out there on it and he's going to be the signer. And I think that this is strategic by JD and it looks really dumb. And to people in the small class of those who care about geopolitics, understand geopolitics, read books, you know, to that kind of universe of person, I think Marco is going to look like a grown up here, like he has several times. And JD Is going to look like kind of a silly little boy, you know, out there playing silly little games.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Very quickly, Tim, sorry, I gotta ask. In the pie chart of Republican primary voters, what percentage would that class you were just describing represent? People who read books, people I think

[Tim Miller]

I care about geopolitics and care about America's role in the world on world stage.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Just give me ballpark the percentage.

[Tim Miller]

8. Okay, 8%. And so I do think Marco is really solidifying that 8 going forward. And I think that JD is kind of thrown in his lots with the 92. And so my one counteroffer is I think that because in that 8%, in the group of people who care about geopolitics, who talk about the news, who read, like, those are the people who do political commentary, right? And so I think that there's going to be like an almost unanimous view among people that do political commentary that Marco is really showing himself to be astute here. And I just, I think that that's maybe a little bit of a category error about. Well, I think JD Might be playing a different game and he is setting himself up for appealing to the hoi polloi and by being able to say, you know, guys, sorry, Marco really did want to do these, do more of the wars and it was kind of dumb. And he was on their side and he was also on Ukraine's side. He was also working with Zelensky, Jewish Zelensky. And there might be like a little bit of that happening. I don't, I'm not saying that's going to work necessarily or whatever. And a lot of this will come down to who Trump endorses. But like, I, I don't know that it's quite as dumb as it might seem on the surface is all I'm saying.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Can I ask questions? I am very much open to this idea. But my. My counter argument to that would be that this puts his fingerprints on Iran in ways that make it harder for him to later say, I had nothing to do with that thing.

[Tim Miller]

I'm interested in Sarah's take. I want to make the counter to my own argument in two sentences. Really quick, is Trump is both isolationist and strongman. It was als. It was always like there was this, and at some times it was hard to kind of square that, like we're seeing right now with Iran. And so, like Marco, the case against this is that Marco seems like strong man that won Venezuela, and Vance seems like weak little boy that lost in Iran. And so maybe, like, that would be, I think, be the Marco caucus kind of like this sort of gut, visceral, 92% of the pie chart level. But I don't know. I don't know. Sarah, what do you think?

[Sarah Longwell]

I think that you're making a persuasive point that what J.D. vance wanted is to say, they got us into this war and I got us out. Like, the idea that he's there on the way out makes to me some strategic sense for him that the risk is that if you want to be the next president like Trump is, and this is not being talked about as much as I think it should be, Donald Trump is setting up future American presidents for disaster with Iran. Right. Like, this is. This is.

[Tim Miller]

He has many fronts, by the way.

[Sarah Longwell]

Many fronts. Right. He's made them stronger, he's given them more money. He has given them a sense of American weakness. And the fact that the American people, like, they've been able to basically test the American people's willingness to, you know, deal with higher gas prices in favor of taking on Iran, which of which there's very little appetite. And so I do think it would behoove JD or anybody who has aspirations to be president again to not want this back in their lap. It reminds me of COVID a little bit where Trump, like, you should be able to see that Trump was able to break everything during COVID but Biden ended up getting a lot of the blame for handling of COVID because he inherited it. And whoever comes in next is going to inherit a disaster in Iran.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I got a weird question for you guys, and just stop me if this sounds crazy.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Couldn't we wind up a year from now, basically, on Iran's side? Trump loves dictators. He loves the North Korean dictators. He loves the Venezuelan dictator. He loves the Russian dictator. He loves the Chinese dictator. He loves the dictators in Saudi Arabia, the only dictator he really doesn't like has historically been the mullahs in Iran.

[Tim Miller]

But now they're great. He was saying that tonight.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Today, now they're great. And now it is really in America's interest to, since we no longer have international law governing the strait, it's on. It's in our interest to make nice with them. And like, honestly, what does Israel do for us? Again, purely from an America first, if you're Trump and transactional, that's what I'm talking about here. From Trump's point of view, I mean, why not just switch sides here? Is that crazy?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think it's crazy. I mean, it would have.

[Tim Miller]

It's crazy in a sense, it's crazy. It's a little crazy.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, it's crazy in the geopolitical sense, but I don't know that I think it's crazy to think that Trump could decide the way that I get this deal and the way that I set us up for the future. Right. Like Witkoff and Jared, for them, they're making business deals in the Middle East. And so if Trump is looking at it from a personal business standpoint, which he most assuredly is, and not the actual interest of America and the west against a stronger Iran, you could see him basically getting, mostly trying to do deals, just like always wanting to be in a deal situation with them.

[Tim Miller]

Who do you think gets in on that 300 billion, by the way? That development fund? I assume the conglomerate that Witkoff and Jared are part of, I assume it'll be part of the Board of Peace will be involved. We'll get a taste on that.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Got some beautiful oceanfront real estate.

[Sarah Longwell]

Remember when we were going to split the feet, the tolls with Iran? Like, it looks to me like Trump's. Trump's idea of a deal is not something in America's interest, it's in his business interests.

[Tim Miller]

And maybe we should have seen this from the start, seeing as somebody that is literally doing real estate deals in the Middle east was our point man on these negotiations, the President's son in law did. You know, I think everybody knows this, but I just want to keep saying it because Michael Weiss revealed this on the daily pod today. There was a briefing yesterday, a reporter briefing, where you say there's administration officials or blah, blah, blah, and our own Sam Stein was able to sleuth that. One of the two speakers was J.D. vance because I kept using the word cool, which he likes to use. He likes to say cool as a,

[Sarah Longwell]

you know, what's Cool about President Trump. Cool, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You know what's cool about this? We made some new friends in Iran, actually. It's been really cool that we were able to build a relationship with Iranians. The other speaker, though, was Jared Kushner. Michael Wise can report this is the second time I've had a podcast guest tell me this. I believe Laura Rosen was the last one, said she was on a background call, that it was Kushner, and Kushner's name is never on anything. And I keep wanting to be like, is it the bigger story that the President's son in law who's doing business deals in the Middle east is the person on this phone call who doesn't have a security clearance? Isn't that actually a bigger story than whatever he's saying? Isn't that the big. Shouldn't one of the people on the call just do a story about that? About how like, you know, it feels like that is the real story here, not whatever bullshit he's spinning? But anyway, yeah, I mean, like, Kushner is the point, is the head man for all this. And, and so I don't, I think that, like, them deciding that maybe it's possible in the future they can be in business with Iran. Is that that much crazier than going to business with Venice in Venezuela? I mean, it's crazy because we, those of us, like, who live in reality, know that, like, you can't really trust the mullahs and the irgc and they're murderous thugs and authoritarians and they don't have any interest in the.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

They just killed like 15,000 of their citizens.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And like, the idea, like, right after we murdered all their friends, they're gonna be like, hey, let's build a Trump tower together, is preposterous. And we feel like we're like the Exxon CEO that was in that, that White House meeting where Trump's like, you know, hey, hey, oil guy, CEOs, I got a whole new market for you. Aren't you excited to go down there? And it's like the character from Landman, the guy from, like that cowboy. Ha. Sir, you know, I see some pitfalls here about me doing business down with the Venezuelans. Our company's been doing business down there for 50 years now, and they're not exactly that reliable. We've lost some money down there before, and I don't. I think we'll go to the Permian Basin instead. But I wish you the best of luck. There's like a little bit of that happening here. But even on like a grander, more

[Sarah Longwell]

evil scale and gbl, you just raised something that's a really important point, which is if the goal, like where we are is to have a negotiation with Iran, we didn't need to bomb them to get a negotiation. Negotiation with Iran already.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Yeah, like that's what was happening before he declared war. Sorry, didn't declare war on them before we declared excursion on them.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like that is the really insane part is, and this is where we should talk about Israel. Just. And you guys can have deeper thoughts on this. But to me, what's funny about this, and not in a haha way, is that Trump did the war part on behalf of Israel because Israel wanted him to. And now he's like, oh man, I thought this was going to be an easy smash and grab job. I do not want to be embroiled in this. So I'm getting out of it and he's going to leave. He's going to end up in the sour spot of he got dragged in by Israel, but now he's going to hang Israel out to dry on the second part of it. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Here's a factual layout for you, jv. I don't know if you've seen this. This is a report out of Israel. Netanyahu's Likud Party has shelved, for now, a planned television advertising campaign that was highlighting Netanyahu's personal ties with Trump after concluding last week that Trump is not helping him with Israeli public opinion any longer. I mean, I can't think about anything that I find more delicious than that. That is so wonderful. Sorry, Dee Dee, you came to our Situation Room to try to get Donald Trump into war and you thought that you were going to be able to bully him around, that you were going to be the one person that didn't get burned by Donald Trump and you spent our money and we lost our soldiers lives on this war that was not at all in our national interest in any way, was in Israel's national security interest. And now that you got what you wanted, the exact thing that all of us told you was going to happen has happened, which is that he was a totally unreliable partner. And not only will America's national interests be served, but Israel's interests won't be served. And like, I just, I'm sorry, this is where, this is the thing I'm the most JVL on because I'm like, I was saying this from the first second of the war and there were some good intentioned people on both, you know, even some Democrats, Greg Landsman, that I argue with about this, Josh Gotheimer, I had on the pod, we argued about this. Of our never Trump friends, you know, who, who care about Israel's security. Like, I didn't want October 6th because I care about Israel's security. October 7th, excuse me, you know, the people that cared about Israel's security, they were saying, like, we should do this because it's so important, you know, like, because the threat that Iran has caused, which is true, which is real. But I was like, but you're, you're getting into this thing with Trump, you're into the boondoggle with Trump. Like, you're not going to get what you want out of this. Like, it's not going to be good. Like in the end it might be short term good for Israel's security, but medium term, it's going to be a disaster. You're alienating the Democratic Party who'll be back in charge at one point. You have a partner in this war that is erratic and non trustworthy and has screwed over every business partner he's ever been with in anything. And you're pushing us into it on pretenses that are not really real. We can all just be honest about what the proposed outcome was going to be in Iran. And so like, obviously this is bad, like it's stupid to get into the war, but it's also bad for Israel's interest. And anybody that said that for the first month or two months of the war, it was like, well, this is anti Semitism, you know what I mean? Like anybody who said that criticized people. It's like, oh, you're anti Israel, this is anti Semitic. Like, this is not. And it's like, that's what, like this is just what happened. Like Israel wanted us to get into the war. It was in their interest, not ours. And, and like many of us said it was stupid for, from our perspective and theirs, and they would lash out at the people that offered that opinion. And now this is like, happened, this has happened. It was exactly as we laid out. And I forget who I was talking to about this, but I was like, I was arguing with someone about this who knows Israel better. And I was like, you might know Israel and Iran and the players there, but I know Trump. It's just like, if I got a real estate buddy who came to me and said, hey, Tim, I've got this proposal for a deal and it really looks good on paper and there's a new building and there's a new investment, like my partner and it's going to be Trump. I would say, well, you know real estate better than me, so maybe like you're right about that deal. But my guess is that there's something in the fine print there that you don't see or that Trump will break the contract and that in the end you should not do this. And like, because you might know that, but I know Trump and that's like how we ended up here. And now we have all these guys that were pushing this war who are pro Israel hawks like now today, like you know, crying about it. And it's like, well, we told you so.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

We're going to get to that in a minute. We're going to, we're going to go through the, the conversion stories. The people who are having scales fall for their eyes. I would say this about Israel. So, so again, as you said, Israel dog walked the American president into this war because they thought it was in their interests. And honestly, if this had been like a three day operation, it would have worked out okay for them, right? You know, big decapitation strike, blow up a bunch of shit, get out.

[Tim Miller]

But that wasn't their plan. I mean, they wanted a, they proposed Trump that they could have.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Well clear. I mean they proposed stuff to Trump, but I think what they really wanted was Gaza. Like they wanted to do to Iran what they did to Gaza and they thought that the US Military could do that for them. It is unclear to me if they really believed that they could like transition to a more liberal regime or something like that. I think they just want to turn around into a failed state. And. But once the strait was closed and it was clear that the US Military couldn't open it, then all of like everything that's happening now was foretold. Like this is the ending we are having now was the only possible end to this. And I don't know what the Israeli leadership thought that their end game with Trump would be. Right, because the end of this is Iran gains a lot of power in the region, which is bad for Israel. All the other neighbors, which Israel was moving towards normalizing relationships with, have to get right with Iran now instead. And did they, like, how did they think they were going to get out of this? Did they think that Trump would stay forever with them, that he would, he would be fine absorbing political damage? That Donald, you know what, if Donald Trump had to be at 28% approval in America to be a good ally to Bibi Netanyahu, then by gosh, he would do it. It's just weird, magical thinking and the only thing I can come up with is that like everybody else, Trump hoodwinks, they thought, no, no, I'm different, won't happen to us.

[Tim Miller]

Speaking of us on this point, and maybe another reason, part of the reason why they thought they're different is because the Abraham Accords and is there anything that has had the shine come off of it faster than the Abraham Accords? Honestly, as recently as two months ago, it was still the thing that even people that dislike Trump would say, well, he did get even expanded.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Remember that was part of the piece the peace plan was going to be.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, yeah, Saudi. And, and the Abraham records are in tatters now and have, if anything backfired.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, we are worse off in every way than we were before this happened. And I, I do just want to reiterate something that Tim was saying, which is we took a lot of incoming in the early days because we all said it doesn't matter how big of an Iran hawk we might be. I do not care for Iran one bit and think it is a state sponsor of terrorism and do think it's dangerous to the stability of the Middle east and to America. On the other hand, I always said, and we always said, you don't do this with Trump. I wouldn't trust Trump at any point to do any of this. And that was always the right call. And what's amazing right now, watching the people who were so mad at us because they're like, aren't you guys supposed to be, Aren't you supposed to care about Iran? Don't you think Iran's a sold out

[Tim Miller]

all your values by being against this war, you're going in with the anti Semitic left now and it's just like, no, you just had our eyes open to what was.

[Sarah Longwell]

We always saw this. And so when I watch Eric Erickson now publishing substacks to be like, Trump's a clown. I'm like, yeah, and we always knew it. And the fact that you didn't calls into question every brain cell that ever existed. Like, nobody. Why should anybody listen to you if you are like, oh, I've just discovered Trump's a clown. Get out of here with that. Like, we all knew this is where it was going to go. Because Trump is a bad person. He's not a good president. He doesn't know what he was doing. He did get bullied into it by Bibi without having any real plan for himself. They didn't manage this well. And now they're what? He's walking away because it got hard and yeah, he wasn't going to do more.

[Tim Miller]

Also, can I throw on top of that? Because I just want to add one other thing. The plan was fucking stupid and obviously stupid. Like, even if it wasn't Trump, really, like, even if it was Mike Pence who was in charge, I mean, Trump being in charge is the. Is. Is. Is enough reason to not get involved with it at all. But this idea that, like, we were going to do, and this is where

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Kagan was, there was never a plan.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, we were to do some bombing camp. Like, the plan was basically step one, bomb Iran. Step two, question mark, question mark, question mark, Step. Step three, the Iranian people are free. And it's like, what was. What? It was obviously not going to work.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

We just did this in Iraq and Iraq wound up reasonably free. And it took 20 years.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And lots of people. And there was no appetite for that. So anyway, the whole thing was moronic from the start.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

All right, so let's go through. First we have Lindsey Graham. I think we're going to roll the tape.

[Tim Miller]

We're going to go through the people who are adjutant, who are pro the war, just to give context. All these people are very excited about this war, pushing for it, rallying, thought

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

it was great, made excuses for how it was going, always insisted that everything was fantastic. Here's Lindsey Graham on the Twitters. I am pleased to hear the memorandum of understanding with Iran to allow the Strait of Hormuz to open has been agreed to. I will be watching closely the ensuing negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program and other matters. I am somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiator team is claiming. Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress.

[Tim Miller]

I love it. Congress didn't have to vote on the war, but they do have to vote on the deal. I love this.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I look forward to reviewing the final product. And I believe it is imperative that the architect of the deal, Vice President Vance and his negotiating partners, be part of the process, emphasis the final deal to Congress.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, we can spend billions of your dollars to bomb people without any congressional approval.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Time tell.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

And he throws shade at the end. To which our colleague Joe Perdicombe tweeted a reference to this scene. No, they expect one of us in a wreckage.

[Ryan Seacrest]

Brother.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Sarah. This is from the Dark Knight Rises. And that is Bain telling one of his terrorist friends, oh, no, you don't get to escape with us. You've got to stay here and die.

[Sarah Longwell]

I saw a clip of Trump saying he's going to have to have a

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

talk with Lindsey, Vice President Vance and the architect. He's the architect. He's the architect.

[Tim Miller]

Did you see, before we get to the other things, I'm sorry, since we mentioned this, Trump said that he's going to have to give Lindsey a spanking today in the press conference of the G7.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Don't threaten him with a good time.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, dude looks. Dude can barely stay up.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, he's 80.

[Tim Miller]

I know, I know, I know, I know. I'm just. But I say this to, like, he looks substantially worse than he did a month ago. And he's declining. This is what I'm saying. I have. I was for a long time in the camp of like, Like, Trump is crazy as fuck and he's old as fuck. But he's like, but he's like, he's kind of similar to first term crazy. Him today, like, we were really in Biden territory about just like the open mouth, like, the doddering, the nodding.

[Sarah Longwell]

He is sleeping through these meetings and he wakes up in the middle of the night and tweets a billion times and then can't stay awake for anything. He is like, look, anybody who has been around people in their 80s knows that there's like, it's like a cliff that people kind of tip over in their 80s. 83 is an enormous state of decline for most 80 year olds.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's alarming.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

So do we have any thoughts on Lindsay here and the JD stuff? We just want to keep moving on.

[Tim Miller]

Lindsay will come around. Lindsay will come around.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

So that's my view. Like, Trump just got him his reelection. Lindsay will do what he's told, won't he?

[Sarah Longwell]

I think so. I do think again. I just, I want to reiterate that I don't think this is over. Like, this is going to keep going. We are going to. We are doing this right. So Lindsay will accept it in the sense that. But like, we have 60 days, there's six there. And we're going to have another round of these conversations. So I don't think Lindsay, especially if the terms come out and they are what is being leaked. I just, I don't know how your Mark Thiessen's and your Lindsey Graham's and your, like, real neocon types swap to him.

[Tim Miller]

Look at all that. Yeah. I'll just say this really quick on the Senate. Some of these other guys, they don't. But here's the thing. Like, these guys all got to sleep in their Bed because we didn't. They didn't fucking vote on it. Like, they wanted to be with Trump the whole time. And so they don't have any leverage here. Like, this is all unilateral thing. But Tillis was bitching about it. Grassley was like, I'm not going to comment on this until I see anything. There's like a whole bunch of these guys that I that are going to be apoplectic, I think, but tough titties.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

We'll see. All right, here's Mark Levin. This is upon hearing that Mr. Netanyahu didn't know what the agreement had in it. Appalling. I can't. I wish we had Jim Swift here to do the Mark Levin voice is my personal appalling. Israel fought beside us. Now we celebrate talks with the enemy and the enemy knows more than our ally. This is shocking. Not shocking. Mark, if you'd been paying attention, interesting preposition about where Israel fought. Not clear it was beside us or behind us. But, you know, they did fight with us. Certainly Ben Domenech went on TV and said, say no to a hillbilly Obama. Foreign policy. Say yes to America first. So somehow Donald Trump's name isn't in here and this deal is bad because it's an Obama deal.

[Tim Miller]

Well, hillbilly Obama.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, what does that even mean?

[Tim Miller]

Hillbilly attack on JV David, he's calling JD Vance hillbilly Obama. This circles back to what I said in the beginning, Sarah. What you didn't really weigh in on, which was, I mean, you did, but you kind of like, we started, we went down kind of a tributary of the conversation. But like, I do that. Isn't this good for J.D. like Ben Domenech, like obese Ben Dominich of the McCain family, who, like, you know, is going on to the Bret

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Bear show, was a Never Trumper.

[Tim Miller]

Don't forget, was a never Trumper on the Bret Baer show being like, Whoa, J.D. barnes is like, Obama. Like, that's not what we want. We want war. I don't know. Doesn't it kind of help?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, no, I think that's what I. But that's what I mean is like J.D. vance wants to be the guy that got us out of this. They're trying to hang it. I think it's funny that Ben Domenech is somehow trying to blame this on J.D. j.D. Vance. Like, this is them being unwilling to ever say Trump did this because JD Vance is literally basically the only person who was clearly leaking that he was against it all the time. To make it clear he was against it.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

And that's like. And so my main point was that that's why he's doing the We're Getting out tour is so that he can be that guy. But you're right, this idea that if

[Tim Miller]

it helps, first Marco, the neocons.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes, I think it helps. Yes.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Erik Erickson. If this were a good Iran deal, they would have released the text already. Hard agree. And then we get to Mark Thiessen. Getting Lebanon included in the Vance Peace deal was an Iranian objective. Not the US Again, just notice Mark Thiessen calls it the Vance Peace Deal and one the US Initially resisted when the ceasefire was announced. To spin this as an American achievement is Orwellian. Yes, it is Orwellian of J.D. vance to that.

[Tim Miller]

This is so funny. Can we sit on Marc Thiessen, for example? This motherfucker was the. Was the number one person banging the war drums for this.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Yep.

[Tim Miller]

He was on the phone, according to Semaphore, with Trump. With Trump frequently. He was increasing his Fox hits so grandpa could see him on his stories, telling him how good he was doing. He was calling everybody who said this wasn't going to go well. A panicking. You're panicking out there. If you don't trust Trump, you gotta trust Trump on all of this. And it's like, Mark Thiessen was never Trump. Mark Thiessen was against Trump in 2016. He knew he should have known better, but he didn't. And he put all of his chips and all of his reputation in on this, to the point that he was personally lobbying the President of the United States behind the scenes to spend my money on the stupidest war imaginable. And now at the end of it, he's like, well, actually, this. The vice president kind of wussed out. That's the problem here. The Vice president. No. What about you? You were the chief advisor to this Mark Thiessen.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

This is.

[Tim Miller]

This is your mess.

[Sarah Longwell]

I fight with this guy. Not infrequently. He is the absolute worst. But here's. Here's the thing you have to understand about the Trump neocons, okay? And I mean the Trump neocons, which is there was a pretty big split among the neocon types, right? The, like, the Bill Crystal, the Bob Kagans, they were all like, we're out on Trump. Like they. And so a lot of these guys were never Trumpers, in part because Trump was such an isolationist. Now, many of them, the good ones. The good are the people who are like, also Character. Also he's a criminal. Also he's corrupt. Also he's like a terrible human being. Right. He shouldn't run anything. But then there's the people who got on side. And so when Trump went into Iran, for people like Thiessen, for people like Erickson, for people like J Pod, they were like, see? See, Trump's going to do the right thing here. And so they're the ones who are now going to be the angriest because they did rush in to defend him on this. And for them, it was going to be the thing that made, right, all of the concessions that they made, all of the things that they sold themselves out for was like, no, we're going to get this thing and it's going to be worth it. And so to have it be this bad is a double whammy, because it's the thing they traded their soul for.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Yeah, that's such a good point. That's a very good point.

[Tim Miller]

They should feel bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

They should feel bad.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

All right, Wall Street Journal editorial board. Most of the press has been hostile from the start, but we've supported the President's Iran policy. We've done so because a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat and because we want presidents to succeed when they go to war.

[Tim Miller]

But

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

there's NO Denying that Mr. Trump is retreating from his main goals as political pressure is built at home. And finishing the job requires greater military risk. Despite Israel's urging, he never authorized a mission to seize Iran's enriched uranium. He never tried to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force. So the Wall Street Journal wants you to know that the rest of the media is bad for pointing out the dumb things that the President was doing. And also, the only reason it's failing is because Trump is a fucking pussy. And if he would just do what the Israelis wanted all the way, and, like, send in spec ops to get the nuclear dust and then, I don't know, send the 7th Fleet into the Strait. Or it is unclear even what they. They want him to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

[Tim Miller]

Can we diagram on the first sentence? I'd like to. I'd like to sit on it for a little bit longer.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Sure.

[Tim Miller]

Most of the press has been hostile from the start. Okay. So they end the editorial talking about how things have gone poorly. So you might think with that opening clause, most of the press have been hostile from the start. They might come to a place where it's like, you know, we've got egg on our face on this one and the rest of the press. The lib press. We got to hand it to them. Right. You might think that that's where they would be going. Like you got to hand it to them. That happens to me. We've been wrong. We've all been. Well, JBL hasn't. I've been wrong. I've handed it to people before from time to time. That was an attack on jvl, not on you.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Sarah.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah took that as an attack, but it was attack on JBL's hubris actually. Just a little loving jibe. You know, sometimes it's okay to do in media. No, that's not what they're doing. Okay. So most of the president has start. But we've supported the president's Iran policy. We. Why I wonder. We've done so because a nuclear wham would be an existential threat and because we want presidents to succeed. We want presidents to succeed like Joe Biden. Yeah. This is a treat coming from the Wall Street Journal editorial board. Is that true? Actually, is that just presidents? Is that all presidents that they want to succeed when they do they.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Not all presidents.

[Tim Miller]

Do they support. Did they support President Obama's policies because they wanted President Obama to succeed?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think they liked. I could. You have to go back and check the editorial tape. But I'm pretty sure that the Obama Iran deal didn't go over great with the Wall Street Journal when they go to war.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Had he gone to war with Iran, then they would have wanted him to succeed.

[Tim Miller]

Oh really? They supported the Libya war and they gave full support to Obama's. Did they give full support to Obama's policy when we stayed in Iraq and Afghanistan after Bush got us into those. Does that. Do you remember a lot of positive editorial.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I have to go back and look about Obama stalwart in all honesty, I don't. I don't remember. But go ahead, keep going.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I want you to cook.

[Tim Miller]

I've cooked. I just, I think the whole thing is so ridiculous.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Is it as ridiculous as saying the problem here is that we didn't do enough war?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Why would you read the Wall Street Journal editorial board and they're telling you that the only reason that they supported this war when other media sides were hostile is because we support the presidents when they go to war. Why read their opinions like they're saying we're just out here, we're just gonna cheerlead for Republican presidents no matter what they do. That's what we're gonna do. And so like while these Other cucks in the press, they might be mean, they might not love America like we do. They might not wear the American flag pins and America flag shirts like we do. We're going to just sorry, not sorry. If a president and the Republican Party goes to war, we will support them. It does not matter how stupid the boondoggle is. It's like, okay, great to know now that that's where the Wall Street Journal is. So why read your editorial board anymore?

[Sarah Longwell]

And this is the last thing I'll say on this, but this is an important point, which is this. We, the three of us and people at the Bulwark, we have been wrong about specific issues. None of us have crystal balls. None of us know. So we, we, we anticipate as best we can about how we think things might play out. We try to make sense of the news as it's happening. But here's the thing. If you are somebody who said Trump was going to be a great president, we need to vote for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris or Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are probably the same kind of bad. And so you, who could say why we should make a choice here? Here's the thing. We have never, ever from the jump, been wrong about how bad and dishonest and awful Donald Trump is and that him being that way would lead to bad outcomes for the country. And I think for people who have been too blinded by partisanship to see that, like the Wall Street Journal editorial page, like a lot of the people who today are very sad about the war in Iran, you, nobody should take their political analysis seriously ever again. They couldn't see the most obvious thing in front of them, which was that it would not go well. And you know what? Even worse, after Donald Trump tried to overthrow an election, they decided to come on side still and say, no, no, this will be great. This is going to be fine. Who could say whether he'd be worse than Kamala Harris? Your analysis is unworthy and nobody should listen to you ever again.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

All right, well, I, I have a bone to pick with that. But first we got to do it quick because this is going to be a four hour show and we do have to do an ad. This show is sponsored by Boland Branch. I'm so excited we're doing a Bowl and Branch ad because I want to, I want to give an actual testimony here. Lots of us need better sleep. And improving your sleep can be overwhelming. You feel like you need a new mattress, sleep trackers, supplements, blackout curtains. Suddenly becomes this huge project that you don't have time for. But the truth is most people aren't sleeping poorly because their mattress. They're just sleeping on old bedding. That's why we upgraded our bed with bowl and Branch. I sleep like a baby, even though I'm here in the city that never sleeps. Here's the thing. I love bowl and Branch for real. I just did last week a big old order from bowl and Branch with my own money because I needed some more sheets, needed another one of their waffle blankets for one of my kids who just adores it. And again, I used our offer code. So I did get a sweet discount with it. But I was thrilled to pay my own money for Bolan Branch products because they're so good. So I don't know how to get any more. Sam Stein couldn't give you a better testimonial with his pocket hose for that. Most people start with their signature sheets and a lot of customers buy two sets. They can rotate them. I now have six sets because I want them the moment you get into bed. You do notice the difference. They're fantastic. These are the smoothest, most breathable sheets I've ever had. And whether you are warm or a cool sleeper, bowl and Branch has something that'll keep you comfy the whole night long. Sleep cooler this summer with bowl and branch during their annual summer event. For a limited time, get 20% off site wide at bullandbranch.com nextlevel with code next level. That's Boland Branch B O L L a n d branch.com next level code next level to take 20% off bolandbranch.com next level code next level exclusions apply. I really do love them so much. Okay, here's my, my one thing. So on the one hand, love dunking on people. On the other hand, want to welcome converts. And so where I struggle, are there any converts?

[Tim Miller]

Here are the maga neocons. Are any of them converts? Because I want a drinking Ben Shapiro's tears mug.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I get that. And I'm sure many of these people, they're little tears.

[Tim Miller]

Maybe not a mug, maybe like a sippy cup.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Shot glass. Shot glass. But some of them might be right. Because all I'm looking for is, well, this worked out very, very badly. I was wrong about this. I can't believe it. Actually, America's in a much worse, much worse space. Donald Trump just, just screwed the country. That's all I'm looking for. Is that too much to ask for? I don't even wear a hair shirt. Just Admit that it was terrible and that Donald Trump's been very bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

And we have a difference of opinion on this, which is, I think that for voters, we should very much be trying to persuade voters who think, man, I made a mistake. I welcome all of those converts until these. The types, the pundit types admit that we were right all along and that. That they were wrong. They can. They have to say they were wrong.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah's. What about if they don't say they're wrong, but they do wear Sarah is always right shirt?

[Sarah Longwell]

Fine, they're in for that. The people who are the punditocracy who create the permission structure for people who are supposed to be explaining things accurately to people who've never been able to do a proper threat assessment of Donald Trump. Like, they need to say they were wrong. They don't have to say we were right. They just have to say they were wrong about Trump overall.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

That's all I'm looking for.

[Tim Miller]

I want one more thing, actually. Sorry, I'm gonna need a little bit more. I'm gonna need. I was wrong and this person is such a lunatic. And because I do not have a crystal ball, because my predictive model, my mental predictive model about Trump was so off that I thought it might be smart to go to a war with Iran with him. That shows you that I can no longer judge anything about Donald Trump. And I think as a better safe than sorry kind of precaution, I'm gonna need to endorse the Democrats for Senate to win the Senate, because we're gonna need to check him as much as possible. I'm sorry if I don't have that, because that is what underlines all of this. The question is, so why is it so important the Democrats win the Senate? Well, there are a lot of reasons, but the main one is that Donald Trump is erratic, that Donald Trump is corrupt, Donald Trump is a liar, Donald Trump's a threat to our democracy, and that it's important that we have as many checks on him as possible going forward. And that was pretty similar to my case against the Iran war. Right. And so, you know, I would need you to kind of come fully around on the.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

That's just fantasy. That is fantasy politics. Because I read somewhere that there was a sophomore trans girl who came in fifth place at a JV swimming meet somewhere last week. And so how can you expect someone who cares greatly about American foreign policy to hope the Democrats capture the Senate when that sort of thing exists in the world?

[Tim Miller]

Maybe fair counterpoint, but that's why? I'm just going to drink their tears instead. Okay.

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[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

All right, the three of us have not gotten together since the big cage match to the stars. What?

[Tim Miller]

I was just like, we've not gotten together since we poured hydroxychloride into a good hydroperoxide bleach into the reflecting pool.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Not a thing we did we don't like.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, they are doing it right now. They are doing it right now. They're trying to bleach. No, but it is. They're. They're. They are pouring hydrogen peroxide in, which is like, isn't that. Isn't that what we used to put in our hair to make it blonde? Or. I don't know. No, it's not hydroxychloroquine. It's hydrogen peroxide. And they are putting it in the reflecting pool because Trump said it was going to be flag blue. And he really staked a lot of money and time on this. And the problem is there's. So we keep sending people down there to look at it and to test the water. Brendan went down. We give him all the best jobs, but it's. There's an algae issue down there. There was an algae issue before, and there's an algae issue again. And so it looks gross like it looked gross before. And we spent a lot of money to drain it, fix it, and have it look gross again.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

It's almost like standing water in a swampy area over the course of a summer will bloom algae.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's right.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Mind blown.

[Tim Miller]

Shocker. How broken is my brain that instead of hydrogen peroxide, the word that came to mind was hydroxychloroquine, which was like the niche other. It was not even Ivermectin was the main drug that the freaks were taking to fight Covid, but hydroxychloroquine was like one of the other ones. I have no idea where that came from in my brain.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I think that was the smart, sophisticated drug. Like ivermectin was for the rubes, but the hydroxychloroquine was for the people who were hydroxychloroquine.

[Sarah Longwell]

But also, wasn't it something that they found in fish tanks? Like, wasn't it something used cart for fish tank.

[Tim Miller]

I watched too much Bannon's war room in 2020. And that the word is just somehow in my brain dug in there.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

All right, do we have thoughts about the UFC thing? Slash the upcoming July 4 thing, which is being transformed into an actual Trump rally. He announced on Truth Social on July 4th at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington Monument in beautiful and safe Washington, D.C. we're going to host the most spectacular Trump rally of them all. A tribute to America, starting at 7:00pm I mean, he calls it a Trump rally. So it's not an ecumenical celebration of America. It's not America's 250th birthday. It's a political rally for Donald Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

And he did this. He did this because, remember the. When they had the musical acts and Martina McBride, this is the thing that they all bailed on. And he said they got the yips. And so now he had to step in and be the main attraction, the main event, because then he did this big tweet about how it's going to be the biggest fireworks that you've ever seen in your life. It's going to be the biggest bands and the orchestra and all the. Our great military is going to be there, and it's going to be another one of these weird, fashy celebrations of Donald Trump. It's a Trump rally on July 4th. And so I'll let you guys talk about this. I do have a couple thoughts on the UFC fight that I want to

[Tim Miller]

throw out, but you just go on the UFC fight. Because here is going to be my thought. It's the most depressed I've been in like a year about having to like do the podcast. I just was like, I can't. I said the whole thing is, was so just soul crushing in every way. And I was just like, I hate it and I want to just turn it off. And I'm pretty sure that's how I'm going to feel about July 4th as well. I just want to turn it off and like, do some soul gummies. There's a free one for you and barbecue and get, and swim in the pool with kids and stuff. And like, just like say, fuck this. So that's my take on it. But so Sarah, you can go. I did talk about it enough yesterday, so I'll defer to you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, I'm in the Bill Kristol school of thought on this, which is that the best way to push back on Trump's sort of, you know, nationalism with Trump at the helm thing is to do, you know, good old fashioned American patriotism. Like, this is the thing that's happening right now is like all these people who are here for the World Cup. I was in New York when the Knicks thing happened. I was there for something else. My sister was doing an improv show. And so the Knicks win. People. I'm at some random, I'm on some random side street and they are in the streets singing New York State of Mind and lighting off, actually some, probably some slightly ill advised fireworks in the street. And the World cup was also going on. People are spilling out of every bar in the city. They're out there, they're being together. And I thought, like, and then you've got all the World cup people, you know, traveling around America right now, tweeting at just the, the incredible things. Remember, a lot of them are going to Buc EE's. Remember when we went to Buc EE's for our show and I was like, I've never seen a Buc EE's before. They really is a sight to behold. The way you celebrate July 4th is, is to turn off Trump and to go be with your family and to do all of that. That's a, that's a good way to do it because it is depressing. I am in no mood to celebrate America's 250th. And I love America and who loves America more than I do? I think I'm a big America counterpoint.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

But isn't that sticking your head in the sand about what America really is? Now, because America is Trump, a plurality

[Sarah Longwell]

of Americans, I don't agree with that.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Voted for him the second time they saw the coup and they said, yeah, let's do it again. Let's run that back.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, you can take that, that incredibly bleak view of America, but right Now, Trump's at 37%, sometimes dipping down the 35%, and he is completely stagnating. And look, I, obviously, I, I think I write this in my book 2024. Heck of a boon for the JVLS line of thinking about America. I don't think we have to be defined by it. I don't think we should be defined by it, but I do. If we want to get sad, if we want to get sad, I can tell you one of the things that is. Has me rip right now is that nobody seems to care about. Everybody's talking. And look, that horrible UFC fighter who said the horrible thing about Michelle Obama. Disgusting. These are just disgusting stuff. Stupid Joe Rogan, you know, interviewing him, all of that. The thing about the UFC fight that I can't believe we're not talking about more or that people don't seem upset about, he's using the private White House law for a sporting event where he owns up to 50,000 shares in the holding group that does the UFC fight. He's. Dana White is his, like, close personal friend who spoke at the rnc. You've got Paramount, the, the newly Trump aligned media company run by David Ellison, getting the exclusive streaming rights for the UFC thing and is like, charging viewers, you know, a ton of money to watch it. And they had an exclusive deal prior to the event. UFC spent 60 million. $60 million on the event. They built that steel structure, the. The Octagon, without congressional approval and without a mandatory environmental review. The UFC spots offered sponsorship packages for $1.5 million each. And then one of the event sponsors was Trump's family's cryptocurrency.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Don't forget the government of Saudi Arabia.

[Sarah Longwell]

And then, and this is like the most absurd one, the closed captioning for the event was Sponsored by Trump Coins.com

[Tim Miller]

different from Trump Coin, where you might

[Sarah Longwell]

think is a meme coin is the Trump coin mean. It's not. They're. They're worthless gold and silver coins with Trump's face on it that people are paying thousands of dollars for. The level of corruption that took place at that UFC fight was staggering. Yes, it was tacky and it was gross and all of those things, but it was also wildly corrupt from top to bottom. That's my rant that.

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[Tim Miller]

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[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Sarah, he did the Republican National Convention from the White House in 2020. Do you remember that? Like, it's like the Hatch act doesn't exist and I. This is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it doesn't.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

It doesn't. Okay, well, there. There we go. All right. I don't need to belabor this anymore. Listen, before we get out of here, you guys pick. Are we doing JD's book tour or Gavin Newsom?

[Tim Miller]

We'll do JD tour. Let's do Gavin.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, let's do Gavin. Great.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

Yesterday, Gavin announced on Twitter that he is under federal investigation, that he's on Trump's enemies list. Here's his tweet. Federal agents have knocked on the doors of family, friends and former employees, not because they found a crime because they're simply trying to find one. They're demanding records. They're abusing the grand jury process, digging through years and years of random documents. Donald Trump isn't just coming after me because of my mean tweets. He's coming after me because I'm considering running for president. Thoughts?

[Sarah Longwell]

I stipulate everything bad about Trump doing this. Trump is going after gas Gavin Newsom on a fact finding mission. The idea, because this also relates to Gavin Newsom's wife and it like maybe some nonprofit she has. And based on what I just told you about all of the levels of corruption, just the staggering, in plain sight corruption, the idea that they're like running around knocking on their doors looking for something is preposterous and awful. On the other hand, Gavin Newsome loves this. So like Gavin, I saw somebody tweet this yesterday and I thought it was funny. They're like, congratulations to Gavin Newsom's fundraiser. And, and here's what I'll give to Gavin Newsome. I will give him the fact that Gavin Newsom, and I shouldn't actually say it like this. I, I genuinely mean this. He is doing and behaving in terms of the pushback the way everybody should. Like it's much closer to Jerome Powell, right? Getting going out and saying like come at me bro, is the right posture for these. Comey did a little bit of this. It's just Gavin just has this way of doing it that makes it look like he's having too much fun doing it. Just always kind of bristle at. But it is the right way and it does show you standing up to Trump isn't that hard. Like I what the idea that so they, so that they get him on some Adam Schiff type like he'll be fine. The fact that the law firms and the universities, nobody else could find it in themselves to just tell him to go pound sand or turn it to their benefit is annoying because Gavin Newsom knows exactly how to turn this to his benefit.

[Tim Miller]

I want to add to this something. I agree with all that and I think that Gavin's probably happy. Gavin probably feels kind of similarly to how I felt when the White House Twitter account attacked me the other day. So there's that for sure. Here's the dark side of this. And I saw this post by Matt Zeitlin, who I like, who's over at Heat Map News, and he wrote something this fact, but it's something kind of we all know, but I just hadn't seen anybody bring voice to yet, which is that it is inevitable that there will be an open federal criminal investigation of the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. Like, that is the world that we're in now, right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And that's not like a breaking news statement, like all of us who pay attention can kind of sense that. But it's pretty remarkable to think about it like that. Right.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

That's how it works in Russia or how it worked in Russia when they still had elections. Right.

[Tim Miller]

There's nothing that can happen between now and 2028. There's no amount of goody two shoes person that the Democrats could nominate that Todd Blanche's Department of Justice won't have one or many open federal inquiries into. That's where we're at now.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

But they won't talk, right? They won't speak about ongoing federal investigations.

[Tim Miller]

No, they will. They will. So when you think about the range of outcomes to be alarmed about, Donald Trump staying, Donald Trump staying in the adu, in the basement of the East Wing, Donald Trump trying to get his kid to whatever. Like, at minimum, the Democrats will have to overcome the Department of Justice going after their nominee. And maybe it'll be frivolous nonsense, like seashells, or maybe it'll be whatever this Gavin Newsom thing is, which also seems pretty frivolous. Extremely frivolous. Or maybe they'll be better at putting a fake kind of gloss on whatever the investigation is. Like, they, you know, something looks more like what happened to Hillary. But, like, that is kind of the trajectory we're on. And I think that to me is like the most important, like, kind of context about the Gavin situation.

[Sarah Longwell]

So I agree that obviously, like, there's a very dark view to be taken of it, but there's also the view of Trump could shoot this too early. Right. Like, like the extent to which Trump's frivolous attacks on people make it so that whatever, it's basically people will be like, oh, whatever trumped up thing they could find. I do think it's going to get easier and easier to dismiss the more that Trump goes after his enemies. And everybody knows, like, Hillary still lived in the before times where you could say, no, there was like, you know, real concern about the way that she behaved. Nobody's going to think that, like, there's no point, no one's looking at the Gavin thing and being like, Gavin probably did something wrong. It didn't even occur to me that Gavin did something wrong. Right. Like, you're just like. And no, Trump's just going after his enemies.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I wish I believed that. But I just have this premonition that it is two and a half years from now and it's Saturday morning and I'm listening to the focus group and you're talking with a bunch of undecided voters from Pennsylvania and they're saying, somebody is saying, I mean, I don't know, you hear all this stuff about that Democrat who's like a criminal. I mean, I.

[Tim Miller]

How am.

[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

I don't like J.D. vance, but how can I vote for a criminal? And I just, man, that's all. That's my concern. Maybe that's my concern, guys. It's been a great show, a long show. We gotta move this along. Everybody else hit, like, hit. Subscribe, follow the channel. We'll be back again soon. Good luck, America.

[Tim Miller]

Bye.

[Ryan Seacrest]

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[JVL (Jonathan V. Last)]

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