1091: JD Vance Called His OWN Iran Policy “Complete Idiocy”

Summary

The Next Level – Episode 1091: "JD Vance Called His OWN Iran Policy ‘Complete Idiocy’"

Date: June 24, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last (JVL)
Theme: Insightful and irreverent political analysis of the week’s news, including the new “America First” right, Trump world antics, Iran negotiations, Tucker Carlson’s GOP exit, Tulsi Gabbard’s guru scandal, and how personality-driven politics and cults of personality shape American life and policy.

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Main Theme Overview

In this episode, Sarah, Tim, and JVL dive into a headline-heavy week featuring the Trump administration’s Iran negotiations, JD Vance’s positioning as MAGA’s “America First” successor, Tucker Carlson’s self-exile from the GOP, and a sprawling exposé on Tulsi Gabbard’s links to a Hawaiian cult leader. The Bulwark team blends banter, skepticism, and sharp political analysis (plus a few pop culture riffs) as they unpack whether anything in politics really matters to voters, and how the American right is being constantly remade—in some cases by people with worrying influences.

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Key Sections and Discussion Points

1. Opening Banter & Setup (01:37–04:57)

• Hosts catch up: Tim Miller is sick but soldiering on, Sarah cracks jokes about losing weight from the flu, and JVL marvels at the team’s grind.
• Preview: "Big show": Ozempic conspiracy guessing game, Trump’s ‘human printer’, and the Tulsi Gabbard cult saga.
• Insider jokes: Event plugs, friendly teasing about moderating book events across the country.

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2. "The Fat Shot" Conspiracy & Who Got the Experimental Drug? (04:11–07:17)

Topic: Reports that a wealthy, well-connected 79-year-old man received access to an experimental weight-loss drug, sparking speculation.

• JVL's Setup: Suggests the recipient’s special access “drew interest from top health officials... The White House insists it wasn’t Donald Trump, which I think is a giant red flag.” [04:11]
• Sarah: “Needed a brand new fat shot nobody else can get—an experimental fat shot put straight in their belly. It seems like Donald Trump’s one of the top candidates for that.” [05:09]
• Tim’s Pushback: Explains why it probably wasn’t Trump (his paranoia about health, other means to get drugs, lack of visible weight loss since April). [05:39]
• Bantery Extrapolation: Other potential candidates named; more gentle roasting of overweight politicians.

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3. Trump’s Mash Notes & Echo Chamber (07:29–11:19)

Main Story: Vanity Fair report about Trump receiving a fawning letter comparing him favorably to Napoleon, Stalin, and Hitler—from a golf caddy, not a historian.

• JVL: “The letter’s premise was extraordinary—that Trump was more powerful than some of history’s most consequential figures, including Napoleon, Stalin, and Hitler. The author was… a golf caddy.” [07:29]
• Tim: Compares sycophancy to ordinary West Wing behavior: “Is this so different than when Trump walks people around the West Wing...? This is what they all do." [09:47]
• Sarah: On one aide described as ‘the human printer’—"She writes, quote, adoring letters to Trump... including one declaring, ‘You are all that matters to me.'” [08:42]
• Reflection: Discussion of the emotional maturity and “high school locker note” quality of Trump’s immediate circle of flattery.

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4. Tucker Carlson “Quits” the GOP & the New Right-Wing Alliances (11:23–19:32)

Topic: Tucker Carlson, in a viral interview, denounces the GOP for being “disloyal to the US” (meaning ‘too pro-Israel’), declaring his departure from the party.

• Tucker Quote: "How could I... support a political party that's not loyal to the United States, that puts the interest of a foreign country above its own citizens?" [11:35]
• Sarah: Notes the performative aspect, the calculated timing, and Tucker’s ongoing relationship with JD Vance: “He does the same thing he’s done a couple of times—‘I won’t reveal if me and JD still talk’—it’s about shielding JD.” [14:00]
• Tim: Details the rise of an emergent "horseshoe" coalition: “J.D. Vance wants the bottom of the horseshoe… They want the anti-war crowd, the anti-Israel crowd, and they want Tucker.” [16:21]
• Sarah: Skeptical about its broader appeal: “It’s easy to see Manosphere types—Rogan and Theo Von people—buying this. But does it work for non-whites? Does it work in the suburbs? I think there are some limitations.” [17:53]

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5. Populist Realignment & Demographics (19:32–23:04)

Key Point: Discussion of Vance/Carlson-style “America First” populism as a political project, its limits, and how it interacts with shifting U.S. demographics.

• Tim: “...the overlap between Bernie voters and Trump voters was always meaningful... Young progressives are much more white, much more affluent. But it’s generational ... young people are shifting, but old heuristics still define politics.” [19:32]
• Sarah: “JD Vance is able to appeal to the Bernie-liking white guys for sure. Beyond that, it gets harder.” [21:40]
• JVL: “There is no MAGA establishment challenger. JD is being clever—he is the MAGA establishment… who’s challenging him from the MAGA side? Marco Rubio?” [22:37]

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6. The Iran Negotiations: Hypocrisy, Politics, and Short Memories (28:39–45:12)

Main Story: Trump, JD Vance, and the administration strike a deal allowing Iran to sell oil on world markets, essentially unfreezing sanctions; JD Vance once called this sort of deal “complete idiocy.”

• Sarah Reads Old Vance Post: “'We didn’t give them money, we just unfroze their money. They promised they’d only spend it on humanitarian supplies...' Complete idiocy. Any thoughts on who that was? JD Vance, 2023 VP. We can’t. This is complete idiocy.’ Describing his own deal two years later.” [30:21]
• JVL: Points out competitive spin and confusion—U.S. and Iran contradicting one another about terms and intentions. [31:12–31:43]
• Sarah’s Analogy: Compares Iran negotiations to screen time bargaining with her daughter: "She always pockets the concession, never delivers on her end, and the bargaining resumes." [33:56]
• Tim: “We are giving them things right out of the gate … they have driven a wedge between the US and Israel.” [36:07]
• Sarah: “Are voters going to be angry about ‘giving all this to Iran’ or just happy gas is $3.70?” [34:59]
• JVL’s Fatalism: “People are so fucking stupid.” [38:11], stressing voters care most about gas prices and things that affect them directly.
• Sarah: “Trump is getting away with it.” [39:44]
• Tim: “I don’t think he is... Republicans are losing their minds about this behind the scenes, but in public, the incentives are not to freak out.” [39:53, 42:37]
• Key Quote: “Trump could take both sides of an issue and make everybody feel happy. He had no issue with that. The Democrats ... don’t have a coherent position on this war. They can say, ‘It was a stupid fucking war to get into in the first place, he’s an idiot, and the deal he got at the end is also really dumb.’” (Sarah, 43:12)
• Cynical Summary: Trump’s ability to leave everyone with “shit sandwiches,” and Democrats’ struggle to communicate an effective alternative.

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7. Reflections on Voter Behavior and Gas Prices (45:00–46:18)

• JVL warns that a moderate improvement (“gas at $3.90 instead of $5”) may “feel great” to voters after a crisis, regardless of underlying policy failures.
• Tim and Sarah repeat: gas is just one issue among persistently high grocery prices and continued economic malaise.

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8. The Trump Reflecting Pool Fiasco (46:18–51:12)

Humor Segment: Trump’s obsession with the Washington Monument Reflecting Pool’s new lining, vandalism, and the melodrama he makes of routine maintenance.

• JVL (reading Trump): “Our country’s now beautiful reflecting pool... a 350-foot gash, made by a very sharp knife or razors… it was purposefully and criminally done.” [46:49]
• Tim: Mocks the drama: “Why do I know the name nano bubbler? It’s in my feed all the time because Donald Trump talks about it all the time… failure is a metaphor for America.” [48:12]
• Sarah: “If there was another president hallucinating a story where a cat burglar was sabotaging the reflecting pool, we’d be talking 25th Amendment.” [49:44]
• Point: Trump invents elaborate stories and uses government resources to “prosecute people for things that are preposterous.”

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9. Pete Buttigieg and the Perils of "We’re Not Going Back" (51:24–56:21)

• Sarah’s Worry: Reacts to Buttigieg’s quote on being “radicalized” by Washington bureaucracy. Concerns about Democrats adopting a post-norm, ‘break the system’ approach: “My little crystal ball is showing us a path that has me a little worried, that’s all.” [54:47–56:21]

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10. The Tulsi Gabbard Cult Revelation (56:21–70:01)

Main Story: The Washington Post exposes the extent of the influence cult leader Chris Butler had over Tulsi Gabbard’s political career—micromanaging everything from TV appearance talking points to policy stances.

• JVL: “The reporter got hold of thousands of messages… they micromanaged almost everything about her political career…” [56:38]
• Tim: “Tulsi is so bizarre that this [cult control] makes perfect sense... The story builds an incredible case… He’s got all the memos. I can’t believe that this hasn’t triggered more outrage.” [59:22–62:58]
• Sarah/JVL: Read choice passages about cult-driven legislative activity and TV talking points; note the sock puppet social media campaigns defending Tulsi, even to the point of policing praise/criticism of Bashar al-Assad. [64:14]
• Quote: “On 24 occasions, Gabbard used language in the [cult’s] memos almost verbatim. In eight other instances, Gabbard used different words but promoted some of the same ideas verbatim.” (Tim, reading piece, 65:45)
• All Hosts: Marvel and express concern over the lack of fallout for Gabbard; call for hearings and greater scrutiny (“I can’t wait for that. I hope it happens.” — JVL, 66:53)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On JD Vance’s Own Hypocrisy:
  Sarah (reading Vance, 31:10): "'We didn't give them money, we just unfroze their money. They promised they'd only spend it on humanitarian supplies. I'm sure they're trustworthy... Complete idiocy.' ... describing his own deal two years later."

• On the Voter Public:
  JVL (38:11): “People are so fucking stupid.” Sarah (38:12): “People are dumb.”

• On Trump’s Ability to Evade Accountability:
  Sarah (39:44, paraphrased): "He's getting away with it."

• On Tulsi Gabbard’s Cult Scandal:
  JVL (62:54): “There should be grounds for impeachment of the President for putting a person like this [in charge of] national intelligence.”

• On Democratic Response to Trumpian Governance:
  Sarah (54:47): “We don’t need a plan. ... Donald Trump just leaves people with shit sandwiches and after shit sandwiches, and that’s why he bankrupted multiple casinos.”

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Fat shot conspiracy: 04:11–07:17
• Trump’s love notes / human printer: 07:29–11:19
• Tucker’s GOP exit & Vance maneuvering: 11:23–19:32
• Populist/antiwar “horseshoe” coalition analysis: 16:21–21:40
• Iran deal/Vance hypocrisy: 28:39–45:12
• Reflecting pool saga: 46:18–51:12
• Democrats, Buttigieg, norms fatigue: 51:24–56:21
• Tulsi Gabbard cult exposé: 56:21–70:01

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Tone and Concluding Thoughts

The episode is darkly comic, full of resigned fatalism but also a sense of disbelief that so much of contemporary politics is being swayed by personality cults, online populist movements, and (apparently) literal cults. The group is consistently skeptical of the wisdom of both the public and politicians alike, and thoroughly unimpressed by either party’s ability to communicate or respond to major events in a coherent, effective way. The Tulsi Gabbard segment stands out as both hilarious in its absurdity and chilling in its possible implications for national security.

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For Listeners Who Missed It

This episode is a tour-de-force of topical analysis, full of Bulwark-style gallows humor, exasperation, sharp populist skepticism, and a warning about how politics is being driven by the loudest, weirdest, and often least-qualified people. It’s equal parts news digest, roast, and reality check about the state of American political life. If you care about what’s happening behind the headlines—well, and how much of it is driven by ego, conspiracism, and even actual cult influence—this episode is essential.

Transcript

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[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

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[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Yeah, fully.

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[Sarah Longwell]

Minnows.

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[Tim Miller]

Just because Tim is skinny, because he has the flu doesn't mean he gets to, like, go around just fat shaming all of the elected officials.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry, I throw it. I throw myself on the mercy of the court.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends, Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Tim is, as we say in the business, strapping it on to be with us today because he is sick as a dog. But look at him here, grinding out content and I love it for him.

[Sarah Longwell]

Good news is I'm going to be skinny because it all came out last night, every end. So I'm going to be nice.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Okay?

[Sarah Longwell]

Snatched.

[Tim Miller]

He just did this in the green room.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm going to be snatched.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I don't know what that means. Okay, So, I mean, I think I know what that means in context. It makes no sense to me. Big show. A really fun show for you today because we have an Ozempic guessing game. We have. We have the human printer sending anonymous love notes to the president. We have Tulsi Gabbard basically as the Manchurian Candidate from some weird new age Hindu guru.

[Tim Miller]

This is the most incredible story I've ever read.

[Sarah Longwell]

Don't lump this man in with the Hindus. The Hindus have at least not real Hinduism.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Look, these guys are Hindu. These guys are as Hindu as some of the super rad trads are Catholic. All of that though I preface before. Are you enjoying hearing Sarah Longwell talk about her book? Would you like to hear her talk about her book more?

[Sarah Longwell]

No.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

You should go to thebullwork.com events and sign up to get tickets to see her on her cross country book tour. It's coming up sooner than you think.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, God. Production made you do that? I'm sorry, I didn't know you had to plug the book tour.

[Sarah Longwell]

Subscribe to the feed on YouTube as well while you're here like and subscribe. Rate and review, please.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, Tim, JBL and I sold out the 92nd Street Y. Now we need a bigger venue. Just FYI.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're happy for you.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Starting with two pieces of candy. We won't spend long on these. We're going to whip through them, but I want everybody to have a taste.

[Sarah Longwell]

Do you know Sarah invited me to moderate her show in Seattle? I'm like, Seattle, like you want me to cross 3,000 miles across the country country to go to. To moderate your event?

[Tim Miller]

Oh, I'm sorry.

[Sarah Longwell]

Could you not have had an event in, I don't know, New Orleans?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I'll do it. I got family in Seattle.

[Tim Miller]

Fine. JBL is going to come. We'll sell that out without you. Big baby.

[Sarah Longwell]

I. Yeah, it's going to be raining. I have to get a coat. Stat.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

News reports this week that Eli Lilly and the FDA allowed a patient to gain access, a single patient to gain access to the drug Retatrutide, which has demonstrated drastic weight loss potential through the FDA's compassionate use program. Quote, this person was a 79 year old man at the time. The request was made in April, according to three sources familiar with the matter. Those sources, who requested anonymity due to fear of reprisals, said it drew the interest of top health officials suggesting the person receiving this drug was well connected. The White House insists it wasn't Donald Trump, which I think is a giant red flag. Just very quickly, do any of you want to throw a conspiracy theory in on this?

[Tim Miller]

No.

[Sarah Longwell]

A mysterious 79 year old man that's well connected needed the fat shot.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Needed a Brand new fat shot that nobody else can get. Needed an rich person fat shot.

[Sarah Longwell]

Fat shot. Needed an experimental fat shot put straight into their belly. I mean, it seems like Donald Trump's one of the top candidates for that.

[Domino's Pizza Advertiser]

Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Are there other obese 79 year olds that are well connected? I'd have to go through.

[Tim Miller]

First of all, yes, lots.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can we ask AI? I need somebody with a BMI above 26 who is exactly 79 years old and who has high level contacts.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, can I just push back on this really quickly? I, I understand why it's fun to think this is Trump. Yes, I do get to put. Okay, number one, it could be any member of Congress or the Senate. Like it's filled with 79 year olds. There are 79 year olds a plenty in our government, number one. Number two, Donald Trump has a lot of weird health stuff about these things. Like he doesn't like to put things in his body. I don't think so. I'm not, I. That would be a point against it. Like he doesn't like it when people touch him. All that stuff. A third point. You can already get these drugs. Like if he wanted to take these drugs, he could get high doses of these of the existing drugs, which have enormous weight loss potential. Not sure why he'd need the experimental one. Fourth, if he really, really wanted it, he would just go in a drug deal to RFK Jr. And get it. He wouldn't go through some proper channels. Those are all my reasons why I think this isn't fun.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Fifth, that was April. We're now in late June and he hasn't gotten any skinnier. These things do tend to work. I'm just saying, if he'd been taking it since April, he probably would have lost it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Jerry Nadler's 79. He could probably use the fat shot.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Maybe that's.

[Tim Miller]

I think Jerry Nadler's lost a ton of weight.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Good for him.

[Sarah Longwell]

You think I uncovered it all right. Second, speaking of which, good luck to George Conway tonight in the New York 12 primary to replace Jerry Nadler.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Second, piece of candy. Before we get started with the real show, Vanity Fair has an interview out today with.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry, Jim Baird is 79 and he. That is a big boy. Ooh, Indiana. Fourth, we'll keep an eye on him as well.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Claude is just spitting out fat old Republicans for you, isn't he? Okay, that's great.

[Tim Miller]

Just because Tim is skinny, because he has the flu doesn't mean he gets to like go around just fat shaming all of the Elected officials.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry, I throw it. I throw myself on the mercy of the court.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

From Vanity Fair today. When Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan sat down with President Trump in the Oval Office earlier this year to interview him for their new book, Regime Change Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, he eagerly produced a two page letter from a supporter he described as a historian. The letter's premise was extraordinary, that Trump was more powerful than some of history's most consequential figures, including Napoleon. Okay, Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler. The author of the letter was not, in fact, a historian. He was a golf caddy. But Trump's evident pride in the comparison revealed something to the two New York Times reporters. Here's Jonathan Swan. Trump was visibly in a state of pleasure to be in their company. That's nugget one. Nugget two. There are details about his company. Company of Hitler, Stalin, Napoleon.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, okay. Not Jonathan Swan and Maggie.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Not Jonathan Swan and Maggie, okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

He was visibly excited to be in the company of another golf caddy. That sucks up to him. He was getting stuck in Scavino. He needed a new caddy again from Vanity Fair.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

There are details about his. That's Trump's peculiar existence in the White House residence and portraits of the figures around him, like Natalie Harp. That's the human printer, the devoted aide who writes, quote, adoring letters to Trump that she leaves in his private spaces, including one declaring, quote, you are all that matters to me. That's a thing the President of the United States has going on.

[Sarah Longwell]

No lies detected there about Natalie. I mean, she is Trump's human printer. So I don't know what else would matter to her. I don't know. Maybe the stock of the paper, I guess that's in service of Trump having a nice firm stock.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

The idea of just, like, leaving little mash notes, like, just. It is very high school, right? Like with your high school crush, you slip one into his locker and then you get to class early and leave it on his desk. And then when he's not looking and drop one into his backpack and, oh, the captain of the football team's gonna notice me.

[Tim Miller]

You know what? We can make fun of her, but honestly, is this so different than when people walk, When Trump walks people around the West Wing and he walks into Marco's office and Marco says, sir, you're the greatest president. Like, how is what she does any different than what the Cabinet does when they sit down for a meeting? This is what they all do because

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

those things are at least prompted. Like, this is Unprompted.

[Tim Miller]

I bet it's prompted. I bet this is part of her job. I bet there's a senior staff person who's like, here's how you can make the president love you. Leave him little love notes telling him how wonderful he is around his office. I used to do this to my dad to get him to quit smoking. I would. I would invade his off. Yeah. Go into his office and leave him little sticky notes. It's like, don't smoke. I love you so much. Because I was 12, 10.

[Sarah Longwell]

Very sweet. That's emotional manipulation from a. I know.

[Tim Miller]

Well, he quit.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's emotional blackmail.

[Tim Miller]

It's not emotional blackmail.

[Sarah Longwell]

I loved him.

[Tim Miller]

I would, like, wanted him to live forever. And now he. Now he is.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh, boy. That's so great.

[Tim Miller]

I'm just saying these are things we do for people we love.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, then, Natalie, Natalie, the human printer does love Donald Trump. And I guess that's really the only point like that. Trump has people around. He has two golf cabbies now. He has the one that does the tweets and the one that compares him favorably to Hitler and Stalin. And then he has a couple of young women that leave him mash notes, and they just stay around him and try to make sure his.

[Tim Miller]

His ego gets fluffed.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. His. You know, he doesn't want his mood to get too down or else who knows what might happen?

[Tim Miller]

We could go to war with. Start a war without a plan.

[Errands Advertiser]

Yeah.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

All right, so here we go. Tucker Carlson has quit the gop.

[Tim Miller]

Amazing.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Little weird. I thought Tucker had quit the GOP over the Iraq war, but maybe not.

[Tucker Carlson (via interview)]

I would not support the Republican Party. There's no chance I would support the Republican Party. Not going to support the Democratic Party. I don't know what I'm going to do. But at this point, you know, how could you support. How could I or any American voter support a political party that's not loyal to the United States, that puts the interests of a foreign country above those of its own citizens? Like, that's, you know, it's not possible.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Israel, to vote for people. He's talking about.

[Tucker Carlson (via interview)]

Think. I voted Republican my entire life. I worked at fox news. I, CNN, MSNBC. I. I've been a consistent defender for 35 years of the Republican Party. I mean, very consistent defender. But there's no defending this because it's immoral. And it's exactly the opposite of what a political party in a democracy is charged with doing, which is representing its own voters, its own citizens, its own nation. And they're not Doing that. So, no, I'm out. And if I'm out, then I think a lot of other people are, oh, no, do it.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

You can do the slow clap. I bring it to you guys. What do you make of this?

[Tim Miller]

Well, it's just a highly principled human resigning from a party that's let him down just like we did for the same.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I know a lot of people, some of the bulwark who left the Republican Party. I mean, a little earlier, it was 2016, 2015 when they did it. But, you know, he's on the same journey as we are.

[Tim Miller]

No, he's not.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh, no, he's not. Is he not on the same journey? Well, may. Or is he for discussion? I present that to you. I was.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was intrigued. Do you see who he's doing the interview there with?

[Tim Miller]

I was going to ask, have you. I don't know who that was.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it's like a Canadian uncensored podcast. Like, you know, we're exporting cranker around the world. I went to their page because I was like, maybe I should go on this show, was my natural thought after all, that got Tucker a lot of attention. And it's like they have no views for anything else except, like, Tucker. The Tucker video has 375,000 views and everything else. Nobody watches them. Why was Tucker on the show with two random Canadians?

[Tim Miller]

And why did he choose that moment to leave the Republican Party?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Have you. Have you gone back through the catalog to see if they have any particular issues about cosmopolitan things or banking or the world of Hollywood or finance? I guess on.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, My guess is that they have some strong views about the nation. About a particular nation, Israel. But anyway, I don't know. The Tucker thing is interesting. I ended up watching most of it. And they ask him about JD when he is talking about JD that part is the most revealing, actually, because he does the same thing he's done a couple times recently where he's like, I won't reveal whether or not me and JD still talk. Cheshire cat grin, you know, because I don't want to create any problems for him. Troublemaker grin, you know, so it's like, okay, well, you and JD Are still talking, obviously. And then he's like, you know what I would do if I was VP was I would be outside my residence every day having a press conference about how bad this war is and using that platform. But he's like, that's why I'm not in politics. I'm an outsider. I am a straight shooter. I'm somebody, you could trust J.D. he's more of a. He's work of the system guy, you know, he wants things to get better for people. And so I think he's in a really, really tough position. Really tough, really tough position, you know, And I think that he wants to do the right thing. We trust him. And I'm close friends with him and his family and I'm close friends with his wife and she's great. And he's. So I just, I think that he's very, I think that what's happening is like very obvious. He's extremely savvy. He wants to provide outsider air cover for JD and have JD Be his vassal. And if that doesn't work out, then I don't know, maybe Tucker is the straight shooting outsider that the people want to turn to. To me, like, that seems like what is, what's happening here.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

So you think he's still inside the house in terms of the Vance. The vance project. The J.D. vance project.

[Sarah Longwell]

He's inside the house in terms of the Vance project, yes. And the. I'm not voting. I'm not a Republican anymore. It's more about the midterms and it's. Again, it's about the. Sarah. The focus groups just show this over and over again. People want an outsider. People don't want a normal politician. And so by him saying he's not part of the Republican Party, it's his way of kind of rebranding or continuing along with this long term rebranding where he's no longer the bow tie party guy, but he is somebody that speaks truth to power from his million dollar manse in France or South Florida or, excuse me, in Maine or South Florida. I'm still, I'm still on anti nausea drugs, but I'm getting most of the words right.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, look, I do think we can see this is, this goes right to my theory about America first maga, establishment, split right, and also which side of the horseshoe, J.D. vance wants to run toward.

[Tucker Carlson (via interview)]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

And J.D. vance wants the bottom of the horseshoe. J.D. vance wants young men, he wants the anti war crowd, he wants the anti Israel crowd and he wants Tucker. And I bet at some point he goes to get MTG back too. And they are building a case right now. And honestly, this is right out of Trump's playbook. Trump's playbook was you run against the party, you run against the Republican Party that's failing them. Well, Trump's the MAGA establishment now and so is Rubio and so is Mike Johnson, and they want to run against all those guys. And they want to say we're the independent voices. We are the real America first and we're more independent. We're not like, we're just party people. We're not just here for the Republican Party. We're building a new coalition. That new coalition is the bottom of the horseshoe. And you know what? There's people for that. They want Hassan Piker and they want J.D. vance and Tucker. They want Senk Unger or whoever that guy is, right? They want the point Chink. They want those guys. Right? And they want them all to be. And who are the people right now out there praising JD Vance? It's Chenk and Tucker. Like you can see it in real time coming together.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Can this work? It feels like it could work.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think that there are some limitations. I mean, I think that it can work. It's like very easy to see, just to use the shorthand. Manosphere types like the Rogan and the Ovan people like buying this, right? They're not particularly smart. J.D. vance has worked them personally for a while. It is, the story is believable. The JD Vance like is a true America Firster and that, you know, the Trump, whatever got sucked into by the wily Israelis or whatever. Like it's not true. It's not exactly true, but it's like believable.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Do the marionette hands, Tim. Do the marionette hands.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's not, it's not true, but it's like, you know, it's a story that they can tell themselves, right? And you know, they don't want to be the libs still like deep down, like they don't want like their self identity is being outside of, you know, whatever the liberal elite woke soft circles that they see themselves at. And so like this is a way to kind of keep that train chugging going forward. Does that work though for like non whites? I don't know. You know what I mean? Like Trump, Trump has this, you know, personality and does it even, does it work as well in the suburbs? Right? Like Trump kind of was able to do it in such a way that was like tongue in cheek. You know, he's funny, he has celebrity and like the JD Vance. And so I don't know, I think that there's some limitations into trying to keep that coalition working, but I think it's possible.

[Tim Miller]

Wait, can I just throw this out there? Because this is important, which is the. I think it's a coalition that you can see workable, especially if you're online. Like you can really be like, oh, I see the overlapping Venn diagrams and I've long talked to Matt Egg nationalist

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

is going to be all over this.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, look, the, the. There was the overlap between Bernie voters and Trump voters was always a big segment, not big. It was always a meaningful segment. I don't think it's most people and it's especially not. And this is one of the funny things. Jbl, I promise I'm going to write a piece for you about sort of the rise of DSA populism and why they're having such a moment. And I think a big part of it is because people are so angry about the economy. Right. That is leading people to be really open to what the hell is going on with capitalism. You know what everybody thinks all of these candidates are bought and so they are looking for transparency. And also because people's relationship with Israel is changing and changing fast. America's relationship with Israel is changing and changing fast. Like there are new coalitions in there. But let me tell you, black people, in this conversation around the future of sort of the progressive left, they always forget that black people when they're like, I hate centrist moderates. I'm like, you mean, do you know who's. It's like the, the suburban voters and black people and you're sort of. And a lot of your Hispanic voters. And so there's actually big core, like what they really. That young progressive base is much more white, much more affluent. But it's also, it's also generational. Like part of this is it's hard to know right now how pervasive this gets because so much of it is people under the age of like 38 too, that are shifting and like it. So you have to be able to talk about this new generation of people that is in a completely different information environment than older people who still hew to a lot of the old heuristics around politics. So there's a lot going on to be able to put that coalition together.

[Sarah Longwell]

And like, yeah, and some of these people are not good. I mean like again, this goes back to white guys. Like JD Vance is able and Tucker are able to appeal to the Bernie liking white guys for sure. Beyond that, I mean, just to like just give a representative example, like the woman that is running in, in New York against Esplat, you know, who like said that Covid didn't really come from China because she likes China. And I forgot she said it came from France or Sweden or whatever. And she said Kamala Harris and all this stuff like that crowd is like, they're not buying what JD fans and Tucker Carlson are selling. Okay? So, like, there's some limits to it. It, I think for sure. And I don't know, man, I don't know what happens with that, you know, and how the Democrats then, you know, how, how the Democrats kind of respond and manage their coalition matters also on this.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

But there, there is no MAGA establishment challenger. Right. I mean, this is why JD is being clever here, Sarah, because in like, in your, in your framing of it, like JD is the MAGA establishment. And so if he is just like making a pure play for the America first base, I mean, well, who, who's challenging him from the MAGA side? Marco Rubio.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Yeah. So. So this was always my theory actually was that there was always kind of the Tucker Marjorie Taylor Greene wing of the Republican Party that was going to be pure America First. There was going to be MAGA establishment. That's Mike Johnson. It's basically everybody who was a pre Trump politician but who fell in line with Trump. Trump's now mag establishment, JD Vance thought he was going to be able to hold those two coalitions together. That's what he was striving for. I do think he's falling into the crack, though, which is why he needs Tucker so much. And this war was really bad for him.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Well, this is the key, Right. He has to keep Tucker on side in the same way that he needs to keep Don Jr. On.

[Tim Miller]

That's right.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

This is JD's entire political future is not based on winning votes. It's based on keeping those two guys from running. It's managing up.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And then getting Trump's endorsement. Right. Trump, Trump anointing him the heir apparent.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

It's great. Do you think, do you think Trump will allow that? Because that's the weird part of this. Right. So, I mean, JD is kind of like running around behind Trump's back in front of him. You know, like with this sort of play, it is jd. I mean, it's kind of like two timing on a guy's wife. Like while you're standing, you know, while you're flipping burgers with him and be like, ah, you know, like Trump's not.

[Sarah Longwell]

Trump supports that.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Stupid.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Not when it's his wife.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think. Are Trump and him misaligned at all? I think Trump wants to get out of the war. You know what I mean? So I think that like in this, on the Iran deal, part of this. I'm not sure that they're misaligned.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh, I. No No, I think they're, they're perfectly aligned on, on Iran. But on the question of if JD has to say at some point or intimate at some point that Trump was bad, like, Trump will smell that in a heartbeat for sure. Right? You know, JD is hanging out with, with Tucker, or it's clear that JD and Tucker are playing footsie under the table while Tucker is talking about how they did this war for. On behalf of some other country.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know about this. This seems to me. Let me just push back because I would see the behind the scenes machination sounding exactly like this. Trump can never fail. He can only be failed. Right? This is you. I'm quoting you back to you. And so what Vance does is says, look, these hawks, you know, they gave you bad advice. They, in, you know, Israel, they gave you bad advice, man. They told you we could do this. It's okay. I'm gonna, I'm gonna eat the, this sandwich for you. Which is what he's saying, right? He's like, well, if it goes, if it's good, it's me. If it's bad, it's JD. And JD's there saying, I got you, sir. Like, I can, I can do this for you and I can get these people back on side and like, you just got to give me a little, give me a little leash.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

And JD needs Trump to turn on Israel, right? I mean, this is you and I talked about this on Friday, Tim. This was one of our thesis, that JD's life becomes a whole lot easier if Trump decides that he's out on Israel.

[Sarah Longwell]

That seems like a pretty easy lift.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Yeah. All right, guys, this show is brought to you by decagon. If your team is dealing with more support, tickets, more channels, and higher expectations from customers, you've probably thought about using AI for customer support. And you've probably seen how limited or time consuming most options are. That's why I'm excited to tell you about decagon. Decagon helps companies create personalized concierge style customer experiences with AI agents across chat, email, voice and SMS. They're available 24, 7, feel natural to talk to, and can resolve customer requests on their own so businesses can keep up with requests without losing their personal touch. Decagon plugs directly into your existing systems so agents can get live quickly. And because workflows can be updated using natural language, teams can make changes themselves without long engineering cycles. That means less time spent managing workflows, more time spent focused on customers and ROI in weeks. Once live, agents can pull up to date information, take action on requests, and understand the context behind any conversation. Also, decagon gives your team full visibility into why agents make decisions and what's happening across every conversation so it's easier to spot trends and improve the experience over time. Decagon helps power millions of conversations every day for brands you know and love, including Avis, Affirm, Fanatics, and Oura. Ready to transform your customer support. Go to Decagon AI thenextlevell to get a personalized demo and see what Decagon can do for your team. Check Decagon out at Decagon AI TheNextLevel. That's Decagon AI TheNextLevel. All right, so Iran still happening. Some very good news for both of you. We are winning so big that Donald Trump told the Iranians that they can start selling oil on the open market, including two Americans. So if you are a true American patriot who has been thirsting to buy Iranian oil at full market price for decades, Donald Trump finally won that for you. No? Is that not something that seems good? Oh, okay.

[Tim Miller]

I haven't talked to you guys about this. That's a good joke. It's true. Here's the Were you guys watching the negotiations this weekend?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Yeah, a little bit.

[Tim Miller]

Did you sit? Were you hanging on them? So I was like, okay, yeah. I have been the body language of the way these guys deal with JD he went on Fox News and he said, I don't really have any experience negotiating these things. So I don't know. And I just. The, the, the news coming out is somewhere between either and this goes to your point, jbl, either we are going to get their oil and benefit and they are going to buy all of our wheat and all of our soybeans and all of the corn that the

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

farmer sells anybody else.

[Tim Miller]

So either we are benefiting a great deal or the conflicting reports like the Iranians control the strait, they will get all the money from it. They are going to. We are unfreezing billions and billions of dollars which Trump is trying to claim they will spend back in our markets. So both sides are trying to spin it as a victory for themselves, but it is like the things coming out of this negotiation were either the Iranians walked out and are refusing to negotiate or the groundwork has been laid for new nuclear oversight. It's just like. And you know what? You can't believe the Iranians and you can't believe the Americans. So who knows what's happening?

[Sarah Longwell]

I thought that was a pretty compelling post about kind of the status of the negotiations that I wanted to read you guys.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

From something's really kind of smart, like an author, been involved in Hollywood investment community and just sort of kind of a renaissance man for the modern era. He said this. They're trying to tell us that all this stuff is true. Quote, we didn't give them money, we just unfroze their money. They promised they'd only spend it on humanitarian supplies. I'm sure they're very trustworthy. I'll ignore the 400 million in cash delivered by the latest administration. Complete idiocy. Any thoughts on who that Was? Was it J.D. vance, 23, Vice President? 2023. We can't. This is complete I.D. describing his own deal two years later as completed.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

His deal is much worse.

[Tim Miller]

Way worse.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

So we have competing just as we're taping, we have the administration through Barack Ravid saying that Iran has agreed to invite the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the country. We have the Iranians saying, no, we didn't.

[Tim Miller]

No, we didn't.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Then we have Trump jumping on. Oh, that's, you know, don't worry, it's all fake news. Of course. We've got it. We've got it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thank you for sharing that. Brock Ravid has blocked me. So I do feel like I'm missing a lot of important breaking news. Like, yeah, it's kind of an assault on my free speech rights, really. And if Barack is going to be the main vehicle for administrative administration propaganda on progress in the war, it feels like it is in the public interest for Elon to unblock him so that I can consume his material in the public square freely. But alas, I've been blocked, so I have to trust your rendering of his reporting.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I don't know, we keep saying the same thing, but I'll say it again. It seems obvious to me that this is what it's going to be. We will give them something. They will then maybe pretend to agree to continue talking to us should we give them more things. And that's just how this is going to like. It's going to be a slow motion surrender until we can finally declare victory and just get the hell out of dodge. And I guess the only question is whether or not Trump turns on Israel before he gets out or after.

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[Sarah Longwell]

Gotta hand it to the Iranians on one thing. I was thinking about this this weekend. Negotiating with them is kind of like me negotiating with my daughter over her screen time where I'm Trump and she's the Iranians. It's very humbling where it's like, hey papa, can I, can I play 30 minutes of Minecraft? Okay, well, sure. What do I get out of it? And she says, I don't know, what do you want? And I'm like, I want you to be my servant for a day. And she said, okay, okay, deal. And so then she plays Minecraft for 30 minutes and the next day I'm like, you're supposed to be my servant. And then she's like, no, I don't know what you're talking about. I don't remember that, I don't remember that part of the negotiation, you know, and then just continues. It's like a, it's a running negotiation where I'm always conceding and she's always taking those concessions and then pocketing them and then moving forward. And that's basically what's happening with the Iranians. Like they each additional, oh, we get to sell our oil on the open market now. Great. And then it's like, oh, in exchange for that was the nuclear guys was going to come in? No, I don't remember that. And then, you know, someone's like, you know, a couple of days later it's

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

like, well, Sarah, my question for you is, I wrote about this today in the Dryad that we've, we've now freed up Iran's ability to sell oil in the open market, which is going to be a, We've also, by the way, unsanctioned a bunch of their oil tankers. So, you know, they now have a fleet of, of transit ships that they can use because we've lifted those sanctions too. And they are ready and rare and start your engines to sell A bunch of oil into the open market. They, back in the bad old days when they had sanctions on them, they had to sell at a discount because they were selling on the gray market. Now they get to sell at full market price and the result of this is going to be a huge cash infusion to the Iranians and a huge supply infusion into the global oil markets, which should in theory help drive prices down. Are the American voters going to look at this deal and say, I can't believe we're giving all this shit to Iran. Are they going to say, oh, gas is 370 again, everything's fine?

[Tim Miller]

The latter. And you know it's the latter. There's not even, it's not even close. And this is, nobody's following, following the back and forth machinations between these countries and Trump will work hard to sell this deal. Now there's a couple caveats though. Number one, the fact that we are giving them things right out of the gate and on freezing and like bringing them in, they're getting everything they want right out of this. But also they have driven a wedge between the United States and Israel. Like, can you imagine how excited the Iranians are to see Israel turning on Trump, knowing that Trump will then turn on Israel, which means Iran can continue to try to dangle things. Like, all joking aside, I was incredibly perplexed by the idea. Trump thinks it's a great idea to give them money and demand that then they spend that money on American products. Because in his mind he's saying, look, I'm solving the problem I caused with tariffs to also solve the problem I caused with bombing Iran. Art of the deal, I win. But if you look at it and you're not a, what you're actually saying is, wait a minute, we're gonna, we're gonna try to bribe Iowa with Iranian money and Americans with Iranian oil and Israel's gonna keep bombing Lebanon though, and there's gonna be no end to this war and someone else is gonna have to clean up this whole inter regional mess later.

[Sarah Longwell]

I saw it flash across JVL's face. I saw it. What was the line that Sarah said that piqued your interest?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Jvl, can you imagine how happy the Iranians are? And I thought to myself, yes, yes I can. I can imagine quite vividly.

[Sarah Longwell]

Listen, Sarah said, you can see how terrible this is if you're not a moron. Unfortunately, you know, there are going to be a lot of morons that are processing what's happening on all this.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

And so yeah, doesn't Trump just win.

[Tim Miller]

Did you read hold? Well, I'm not sure.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Can I, I'm sorry, can I get it? Because again, people are so fucking stupid.

[Sarah Longwell]

People are dumb.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

The bottom dropped out of Joe Biden's presidency when he pulled out of Afghanistan because he was acceding to the plan that Donald Trump committed America to. That didn't impact oil prices. It didn't impact anything that anybody did in their kitchen table lies. And America's lost their ever loving mind over it. But this giving up control of the Strait of Hormuz and setting Iran on the path towards people seem to be

[Sarah Longwell]

losing their mind over this. Is Trump's numbers anywhere?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Mark Levin is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Aren't Trump's numbers and Biden's the same right now?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

No, I think he's recovered a little bit.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I mean, no, I'm just saying like this is like we're sitting here saying, of course people won't care. But you know, when it was Joe Biden in Afghanistan, people cared a lot.

[Sarah Longwell]

Part of it is like Joe Biden couldn't explain why we got out of Trump is Trump.

[Tim Miller]

It's also not just Afghanistan. I'm sorry, but just because I, I remember this phase of Biden extremely well. That summer was also when Covid came back. It was the reemergence of COVID supply chain was totally disrupted. Gas prices were very high because of the supply chain disruption and he pulled out of Afghanistan and it was sort of like an external calamity on top of what people were feeling here. So it wasn't just Afghanistan.

[Sarah Longwell]

Are we only 38 minutes into the show? Was that right? I just. Speak.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Sorry. Is it not going by fast enough for you, Tim?

[Tim Miller]

We've been doing it an hour and we haven't even gotten anywhere yet.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. I was just wondering how much more time we got left on this, but I'm okay.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Clench up. Ready? Clench up. Tim. He's getting away with it is my point, Sarah. Right. He's going to get away with it.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't think he is.

[Tim Miller]

I don't think he is either.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Tell me why not?

[Tim Miller]

Here's the one thing I think he could do, so I'll. My one caution is that I do think Donald Trump has decided he is going to do like the caravans version. They have a panic. They are panicking about 2026 and the elections and for people who say, well, Donald Trump's a lame duck, so why would. And he doesn't care about the Republican Party, so why would he care about the midterms and, and the answer is Donald Trump doesn't care about the Republican Party quad Republican Party. He does care about the oversight of him and he has the Republicans on lock for oversight of him. But if Democrats get control, somebody else is in charge. And so he is going to do whatever he can to try to keep Democrats from taking control and getting oversight. Okay. And so part of that is how do we get gas prices down? They are very aware that like in terms of generic ballots, you get three extra points on generic ballots if gas is over 450 and if it comes down and it gets under four bucks, like you start to see that number close. And so he's thinking about how do I get oil into this market at a time when the. Because before they were tapping into the oil reserves and they are almost depleted, which is why he is panicking, which is why he needs a deal, which is why he needs gas prices to come down and he's going to let the Iranians put money into this. Now, on the question though of is it going to work, it might work in the short term of making it less of a blow like he does want. If he gets gas prices down, I do think it will have a meaningful impact. On the other hand, he is working really hard to get Republicans on side on this because it is such a catastrophically self evidently bad deal that some people are struggling with it. Like they are struggling to do the work of debasing.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I have confidence that they're going to overcome. I have confidence in them. Sarah.

[Tim Miller]

But what about the Ben Shapiro's and the. So this, this piece by T. Beckett Adams? Did you read this where he was apologizing to CNN because, well, he was saying that CNN's reporting on, on Iran and Trump's deal couldn't possibly be true because it would be so catastrophically bad. Like that would be insane. And he was like, no, it's exactly what they said. And so he wrote this long apology. But I do think that Republicans are like freaking out at the idea that where this thing lands is just a massive calamitous embarrassment that emboldens Iran forever. Because that is what's happening. People are not freaking out enough about this. But I guarantee you Republicans behind the scenes right now are losing their minds.

[Sarah Longwell]

People I agree with the people are not freaking out enough about this part. And it is because like all the incentives are not to freak out. It's like the Republicans don't have any incentive to freak out. The Democrats don't want him to go back into the war. They don't Want to make it seem like they're for the war, which is the stupidest thing out there right now.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

We continue to can't even understand it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Me neither. They're like, if you criticize this deal, you're for never ending Zionist war with Iran. I'd like somebody messages send that tweet. And I'm like, what are you talking about? No, you can. Like, this was the. This is part of the reason why Democrats lose was because Donald Trump was really good at one thing.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

He could.

[Sarah Longwell]

He could take both sides of an issue that he didn't care about and make everybody feel happy. He had no issues with that. You know, the pro Israel Zionist crowd thought he was going to be their greatest ally. You know, the dearborn anti Israel protesters maybe didn't think he was their greatest ally, but he'd said enough. He gave them enough lip service and, you know, did Arabs for Trump and stuff and to allow them to take out their anger. On Biden and Harris. He played both sides. He didn't have to have a coherent position. He did it. And it's like the Democrats are in the minority. They don't have to have a coherent position on this war. They can say it was a stupid fucking war to get into in the first place. He's an idiot. But the deal that he got at the end of the war is also really dumb. And he's humiliating himself and he's embarrassing. He's weak and he's an idiot now, too. And then if the next question is, well, what would you like him to do? The answer to that is build a time machine. Don't. Yeah, yeah, time machine. Don't be an idiot. I wouldn't have gotten in this war in the first place. If you'd elected Kamala Harris, then we wouldn't have been in this stupidest fucking war imaginable. So, like, it's not that hard. Like, you don't. We don't. I don't need a plan. Talk to me in 2029. If he's still stuck in this quagmire, then, well, I guess we'll have to come up with the best or bad option that he left us with. Like, because Donald Trump just leaves people with shit sandwiches and after shit sandwiches. And that's why he bankrupted multiple casinos. Like, it's pretty easy. But a lot of the Democrats are a little bit hesitant to do that. But, you know, I don't know. But that's where they are. I think that to your question, jbl about whether he's going to get out of this, he stanched the bleeding a little bit, unlike, and he was in free fall. So if that means he's going to get away with it in that sense, I agree with that. Like, I think that he is potentially staring down the barrel of like July, August vacation time, people paying five ducks bucks a gallon of gas. It was going to be like a real nightmare for him. And it's still bad, it's still not good. But I do think that he has

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

in a weird way, because it was so bad, even the moderately better is going to feel great, right? People be like, 390. All right, 390. Good times are here again.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't, I don't. I don't think that's going to be true for people for whom like, budgets are tight.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Maybe. I don't know. People are really stupid, Tim. Have you met them?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, yeah, but people can budget. They know. I mean, people that are, you know, it depends. I don't know. Like, I was, I was doing my. Tom Friedman was chatting with my Uber driver and guy was like, yeah, he knows the math about how much money he has to fill his car up with every week. He knows how much he's losing.

[Tim Miller]

Also, gas is just one element of the economy. Like inflation is still up. Groceries are still way up. You can. There's not a focus group that doesn't start with people talking about how bad the economy is.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I hope, Sarah. Boy, I hope. All right, so I'll tell you what he does want to talk about. He does want to talk about the reflecting pool and America 250. Tomorrow night begins the Great American State Fair in Washington. This is the, the thing that all the musical acts pulled out of. And Trump then said, well, I'm just going to turn it into the greatest Trump rally ever and I'm going to do the speech. And this is happening as you're taking

[Sarah Longwell]

the kids down there. Sarah, it sounds like a nice family.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Yeah, don't you grew up in the land of state fairs.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I. Fireman. Fireman's carnivals where they gave you, you know, chicken corn soup and someone's saying, proud to be an American, boys.

[Sarah Longwell]

You guys gonna go down there?

[Tim Miller]

Absolutely not. Oh, just like dead ducklings floating in the reflecting pool and Vanilla Ice doing a creaky 65 year old rendition of Ice Eyes, baby. And nightmare.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Those ducklings were killed by antifa. Supposedly. So this is, this is a thing. We now have had six people arrested, seven people cited for damage being done to. I'm just going to quote from Donald Trump, our country's now beautiful reflecting pool. The 350 foot gash made by phrasing, made by a very sharp knife or razors is actually numerous slashes over a very long 350 foot length. It was purposefully and criminally done. Somebody had to work very hard, probably in the dark of night to create such a condition. Likewise, the small area at the bottom of the pool was cut and powerfully lifted off the surface, leaving very jagged, uneven edges. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. We will drain some of the water either immediately before or after the 4th of July to do the permanent repair. Donald J. Trump. I guess we care about this.

[Tim Miller]

We.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I care, I care about it enough to write. Okay, we don't care.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, okay, well here's, we care. Here's, here's the only reason we care. We care because Donald Trump made us care. Okay, this was not, we, we were not going to talk about the reflecting pool. But then Donald Trump held many meetings in the Oval Office where he had people specifically make graphics to show how the reflecting pool was bigger than buildings. If you stood the reflecting pool on its edge, which, why would anybody do that?

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Who.

[Tim Miller]

He made a big deal out of its reconstruction. He spent, I don't know, many, many millions of taxpayer dollars on it. Talked about it endlessly, sort of like the ballroom. And so we were made to care. And now that it is failing, right, they didn't kill whatever the algae, because this is what he does, right? He talks about grass and he talks about how the pool doesn't look nice. And then when the same out the nano bubbler didn't work. Why do I know the name nano bubbler? I'm barely paying attention to the story. I know because it's in my feed all the time because Donald Trump talks about it all the time. And so the reflecting pool failure is a metaphor for the way that America feels right now. And Donald Trump has to blame it on somebody else when actually he just didn't solve the problem because he outsourced it to some crony of his who did a crappy job fixing it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, talking about this makes me want to hit the nano bubbler. I think the only thing that is relevant would be that the president, well, I mean, he's wasting our money on it and it's going to be more and more of our money that's being wasted. And he doesn't want to help anybody make their lives better. All he wants is pretty things around him. But I do think it's just kind of a Problem if there was another president besides Trump that was hallucinating a story where there was a cat burglar that snuck into the reflecting pool at night with a box cutter to sabotage his presidency. And they tell this elaborate.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

What if Joe Biden did this?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, it was elaborate. Born Identity style story about. I guess it would be maybe 25th amendment. American treasure. Maybe. What was the Nicolas Cage movie? Maybe.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, I remember that. National treasure. National treasure, yeah. Snuck there. Black ninja outfit, wading through the algae, cutting, cutting. I mean, the whole thing is ridiculous. The whole thing is ridiculous. And the President of the United States was in the Oval Office, like, telling this imaginary story as if it was a thing that really happened.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

The big problem is, is using the government to prosecute a bunch of people for things that are preposterous.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. The bicyclist.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

The poor bicycle kind of a problem now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

You should be able to touch the water in a free country. I don't. I don't think it's a federal crime to touch dirty water.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I mean, you've been over the World War II memorial. Like, you go there on any Saturday or Sunday, and they're like kids splashing around, little paddle pool, you know, in the pool and stuff. And it's like a thing that people could do. The whole idea of these spaces is that they are public venues for people to come together. But, you know, now don't touch it. Touch the water. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

It's also just a lie. It's a lie.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Like him.

[Tim Miller]

Right? It's right. They. It's coming. The liner's coming off because it was poorly installed and people are able to pull it off. So this idea that somebody's in there with a knife, as opposed to the weird liner that you guys put that somebody like you got scammed by this guy. It's coming up.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I'll leave this segment with another tweet from our favorite president.

[Sarah Longwell]

There's another segment.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

People can. There's two more.

[Tim Miller]

Tim talked about Tulsi. And this all I came for the show for today.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

This is Donald Trump telling you what to expect. On Wednesday. We will have the fabulous Lee Greenwood introducing me with what has turned out to be one of the greatest hits of all time. God bless the USA and the amazing Christopher Macchio, who will sing Nesundorma. Alleluia Ava May Ave Maria. God bless America and others. Not since the legendary Luciano Pavarotti has there been such a voice. All right, so I had here in my notes a little teaser for the secret pod. And this is Sarah's dreamboat. Pete Buttigieg has said that he has been radicalized by his experience in the Biden administration and is just looking at. Here we go. It showed me the need for institutional change. I believe very strongly that there's no going back before Sarah talks.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can I want to say something that is, please. And I mentioned this with John Ganz today.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh, how was that? I love that guy.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think people should check it out. It was me really in rough shape trying. It took me back to college. I felt like it was like this time it wasn't a hangover, but where I'd been throwing up all night and I had to meet with the TA to discuss habermas. So I think it's pretty good. But the. Where was I? Yeah, we discussed with John Gans. That quote from Pete gave me a little bit of a. Like my old. My Sarah was coming out, my inner Sarah was coming out a little bit. And I'm just starting to get a little bit nervous about the whole we're not going back talk. I kind of feel like now like the total conventional wisdom in the Democratic Party for 2029 is going to be, fuck it, Donald Trump broke everything. We should just be able to break everything and do whatever we want. And you know, the systems are too sclerotic and we shouldn't have to follow the rules and the, you know, balance of powers and has created this government that doesn't work for people, blah, blah, blah. And like the conventional wisdom, all these guys are going to be like, we just got to go in there and break things and do shit for people. And like, at some level I'm. That resonates.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Tell me more.

[Errands Advertiser]

Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

At some level that resonates with me. But like, on the other hand, Joe Biden tried to do that actually with student loans and it was a disaster. And so I do think it's important for people to reckon with that. Right. Like, like the conventional wisdom about the Joe Biden presidency is like, that the failure was, you know, Merrick Garland was, you know, too, too, too interested in following the norms and mores of the Justice Department. Like that's one example, you know, inflation. There's not a ton of reflection about the fact that the big program that everybody on the left pushed was student loan reform, which was a politically moronic. Because all it did was anger the people that did not get handouts. And the Democrats are already doing really well with college educated people, actually. And their problem was with non college working class people. And for some reason they decided to Rub it in their face and say that the government was only going to give money to college educated people, even if they deserved it, even if it was fair. That's just like, that's how people processed it. Like, just like looking at this, taking aside whether you believe it's good policy as a political matter, they got nothing and they alienated people.

[Tim Miller]

And then people who wanted it and who were expecting it were mad when they didn't get it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Didn't get it because they broke the rules and they broke things and they went around and they didn't do it through the normal process. And then when the courts overturned it, which by the way, has happened to Trump several times, this gets lost in the whole theory of Trump too. This has also happened to Trump. It's not like Trump has had total carte blanche and he's done a lot of crazy shit, but the courts a lot of times have overruled what he wants to do. It's, he's already just. We forget because he's already moved on to the other 10 cases.

[Tim Miller]

No, but it's true. Right now, the, the, the ballroom and the, and stuff with the detentions, the ice, like the courts have, have raised. Not. Yeah, not as much as we would like them to, but still a lot.

[Sarah Longwell]

So anyway, I just take it to like, when you hear Pete Buttigieg be like, I was in there in the Biden administration. I was in the Biden administration. It radicalized me because we didn't get enough stuff done for people. I'm like, I don't, I don't know. I want to hear more about what he means by that. Exactly. But because if what he means is, you know, you can just do things. We should have broke things. We should have, like, we should have gotten the infrastructure money out faster. We shouldn't have given infrastructure money to the deep red areas. We should give it to purple. I don't know, there are things you could say that I'd be like, yeah, but I'm a little bit worried about how fast we're speed running into. We're not going back. All we're going to have now is trade back and forth between socialist authoritarians and right wing populist authoritarians, and our system of government is broken. I'm not saying that's what Pete said. I'm just like, when it's Pete starting to do this, I just, my little crystal ball is showing us a path that has me a little worried, that's all.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Well, my friends, tune in on the secret podcast on Friday when Sarah will be asked to choose between her love of Pete Buttigieg and radical reform. Okay, now we get to Tulsi.

[Sarah Longwell]

Look forward to listening to that.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Washington Post has a gigantic story about Tulsi Gabbard and her relationship with this guy who is kind of a cult leader. Maybe his name is Gabriel Chris Butler. He is leader of a breakaway Heart Krishna in Hawaii. And it's a cult. Her parents were members of the cult, still are members of the cult. And what happened is the reporter got hold of several thousands of pages of messages sent from somebody within the culture to Tulsi Gabbard over the course of many years in which they micromanaged almost everything about her political career, including what she should tweet, who she should tweet at, what legislation she should introduce, how she should vote, how she should do use her eyes when on television. That's like a big thing like this. Whoever the person is, is like, tell her to stop doing the eye shit. And the whole thing is nuts because whoever this person is, and maybe it isn't the leader of the cult is obsessed with never using a computer himself and so communicates everything through intermediaries who take down notes on his instructions and then send his or her instructions, because it could be anybody, and then sends them to. Through this. This secret email server to Tulsi. And the thing is nuts. And weirdly for me, it hit as perfectly believable and as like, finally, oh, okay, well, now I understand Tulsi. You know, like, sometimes you read a story like this and you're like, whoa, mind blown. And instead I was like, oh, okay, now I get it. It all makes sense now.

[Tim Miller]

I think there's a few things. One is the fact that Tulsi Gabbard is such an odd person and. And has gone through so many iterations of herself. It does leave you asking, right? It. She is begging the question of why is Tulsi Gabbard like this? How did this happen? How did she become this person? And so you're right that then when somebody offers this as an explanation, she is so bizarre that this makes perfect sense related her. Or at least it's like, okay, that. Well, that. That would track with what I have seen from this person. Here's what's amazing about this story. And I just want to make a pitch for people to go read every word of the story, because I sat down with it and, like, I had to make a meal out of it because it's long.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Like 45 minutes.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it takes. It's going to Take a while to get through. I promise you it is worth it because I think this is sort of the tip of the iceberg. My hope is that what it does is it creates more people coming forward. But this reporter, it's incredibly intrepid reporting, but basically he gets a hold of one source who used to. Who worked on her campaigns and then knew all of these players going back. Because it is internally she is surrounded by people with connections that go back to this guy who ran this cult, this, like, Hare Krishna weird cult, who doesn't put anything writing, but who. Many other people sent messages, and this is the parts that will blow your mind. And they're sort of understated in this conventionally journalistic way where it's like they told her to introduce legislation and she would verbatim talk about it the way that she was instructed to by these people. Okay. And this is throughout her congressional career. It was like he had. It was like he had 34 instances of her. Can't remember if it was introducing something, but then he looked back and it was like 26 of them were found in the memos where she was directed to do it and where she was chastised when she would do it in insufficient ways. And also that this guru was somebody who was. Because. And also, like, her parents were in this cult. So she was raised in this cult. Right. Her parents worked for him a little

[Sarah Longwell]

different than, like, Kelly from 90210.

[Tim Miller]

That's right. It's not like she, like, ran off, got involved, said, wow, this is insane, and got out. This is somebody who was. Was raised in this, whose father also ran for office and held office.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

They both. They both, both held minor offices in. In Hawaii.

[Tim Miller]

But this was a person who was trying to gain a foothold in politics. And so, like, all the. Being nice to, you know, Bashad, whatever.

[Sarah Longwell]

Bashar Al Assad.

[Tim Miller]

Bashar Al Assad. Thank you. All of this stuff was, like, instructed by this person who then also kind of liked Donald Trump, basically was like, he was. Early on, Trump told her to run for president. And so listen, if you read this story, because here's the thing that's not really stated in it. The. The story builds an incredible case for some figure guru and the network of people like sock puppets that they built up to comment on things, to booster her. Like this all coordinated. Like, in a world of conspiracies that mostly don't make sense, this one is incredibly. Because he's got all the documents, all the memos for people. Like, he really does have the receipts. Here's what he doesn't have and what goes unsaid in the piece is this person, has this person been with her on this journey as the head coordinator of all Americans national intelligence institutions? Like, I can't believe that this hasn't triggered a. And to be honest, like, I. This story broke a couple of days ago. I saw it online and I was like, man, that looks really long. I'm gonna have to sit down and read. And then I sat down and read it and I was like, why isn't everybody talking about this all the time and only this? It is absolutely insane and there should

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

be grounds for impeachment of the President for putting a person like this.

[Tim Miller]

As you and I, the entire like, I know that Trump's DOJ isn't going to do this, but somebody needs to figure out who now has all of this information. I can't believe it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guru Chris, I think, Tim, would you

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

like, would you like some things. Would you like, would you like me to give you some, some, some nuggets? Sure, I'll just read from, read from the piece. The main speaker in a 2014 memo pressed for her Tulsi to propose legislation penalizing countries with citizens who had fought for the Islamic State and to issue a statement about it. Get it started in the morning, the person said, you need to be the leader in this regard. Don't dick around. I found that Gabbard released a statement the following day. A week after that, she introduced a bill in the House. This is the level of stuff a January 2015 memo documented. Unnamed advisor. He seems, he's very mean.

[Tim Miller]

He's very unkind in the statements. Yes.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

24 January 2015 memo documented an unnamed advisor's proposal to attack John F. Kerry, then Secretary of State, for saying violent activity by the Islamic State and Al Qaeda was rooted not in Islam, but in alienation, poverty, thrill seeking and other factors. If that were true, the advisor said sarcastically, the way to deal with terrorists would be to, quote, give them a trophy, a big hug, increase their self esteem, give them a good paying job. In a Fox News interview later that day, Gabbard repeated the Kerry quote and gave a similar mocking punchline, quote. If that's really the cause, then the solution would be to give them a trophy, give them a hug, give them a good paying job. She said. This is, it's like this over and over. But my favorite part is there's a lot of detail about. There's a coordinated sock puppet campaign of Internet accounts which swarms comment sections in newspapers, whenever Tulsi is mentioned, and social media accounts. And I feel like I need one of these, lots of these. There's very deep coordination. And my favorite, favorite part of the entire piece is that there is a moment in which people are accusing Tulsi Gabbard of being in the tank for Bashar al Assad. Her sock puppets rush to defend her. In the course of defending her, say things like, bashar al Assad is a monster. She has nothing to do with him. Tulsi then reaches out through these chains and says to them, hey, hey, cool it down on your criticisms of Assad. There's no need to call him a brutal dictator, she says. So even privately, she is telling the people who coordinate her defense when they're defending her from being in the tank for Assad, hey, why are you being like that, dude? He's okay.

[Tim Miller]

Can I read one of these? One of my parts. This is. I got this wrong before. It wasn't legislation. It was in TV appearances, so he says. With my Post colleague Aaron Schaefer, I compared Gabbard's remarks in 32 TV interviews between 2014 and 2016 with the talking points memos intended for them. Meaning these people were issuing her talking point memos. On 24 occasions, Gabbard used language in the memos almost verbatim. In eight other instances, Gabbard used different words but promoted some of the same ideas verbatim.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm looking forward to his testimony on the Hill. Guru Chris. I hope he wears the lei. I want to hear him shout at people. I want to learn a little bit more about this character.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Can they force him to.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, he could be subpoenaed.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I mean, he's in. This is a real question. He's in Hawaii. The House does not have in America ability. Right, but the House doesn't. Who is the House going to send to arrest him and forcibly bring him to.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, people can refuse this is just abandoned situation. They could subpoena him to testify, and if they don't testify, then he would go to Jude, go to jail.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Boy, howdy, I can't wait for that. I hope it happens.

[Sarah Longwell]

Me too. I. I want to learn more about the person who is really in charge of our national intelligence for the last two years, Guru Chris from Hawaii.

[Tim Miller]

And guys, when people were. When people were asking about it, when people were raising this issue, the reporter was raising this issue, all the pushback was, this is anti Hinduism. Like they. They say. They all said, it's a attack on her religion.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

We ought to ask J.D. vance, who knows a lot about that since he is close to the Hindu faith. And see if.

[Tim Miller]

Was anyone checked on Meghan McCain.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, she's out there saying this is anti Hindu. Kind of like going after David Koresh is anti Christian or whatever. No, he seems like a good White Lotus character.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

What about the Republicans who voted. Did any Republican senators vote to confirm this woman? I forget all of them.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh. How about Susan and Democrats? Did John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, it's kind of hard to remember all the information.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Maybe somebody can effort that. Maybe someone can effort that for me.

[Sarah Longwell]

Federman did not vote for Tulsa.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Okay, well, they're good on him. I'm sorry.

[Sarah Longwell]

Neither did McConnell.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Oh, okay. Well, there we go.

[Sarah Longwell]

Collins did.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Problem.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, this is what I mean. I. I don't understand. Why are Democrats. I. This is insane. This is one of the craziest things I've ever read. Can I just like.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

I'm sorry, this is. This is a trivial aspect of this, but if I told you there's this cult in Hawaii with all sorts of weird stuff and they are super into environmentalism, would you also then expect they're kind of sort of into right wings nationalism stuff too, which this cult clearly was from the very beginning. This is again 2016.

[Sarah Longwell]

They're also right wings.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Also anti gay. Yeah. As the general election race got underway. This is 2016 transcript show an unnamed advisor spoke admiringly about Trump's campaign messaging. In one, the unnamed speaker said Trump had staked out the kind of maverick position that Gabbard might have taken. Quote, this is right up your alley, the speaker said about some of Trump's remarks on Islamic extremists in America. Quote, too bad you're not running. It's all falling into place but for the wrong guy. Now Trump is going to be the one, and he's a total idiot. Memos sent before Trump entered politics suggested an affinity for some of the ideas he would later adopt. In two of them, an unnamed advisor said the government needed to think, quote, America first.

[Tim Miller]

Fascinating.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, good political instinct, anyway, for us to wind this down. How are we feeling right now about the podcast?

[Tim Miller]

Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

It wasn't very live. I didn't realize we were going to read all of it live together in the final segment. It is alarming.

[Tim Miller]

I thought we should have led with it. I thought it should have been our first time.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's alarming. And I'm Guru Chris concerning. I'd like to learn more about his influence on our national intelligence.

[John V. Lucey (JVL)]

Looking forward for the hearings. Hey everyone, see you at the hearings, guys. Good show. Long show. Thank you to Tim Miller for gutting it out, for strapping it on, for being here with us even though he was sick. Everybody else, we will see you later. Sarah and I will be here on Friday and some of us will be here, I think, to cover your favorite president's great speech at the Great American State Fair tomorrow night on Wednesday night. It's going to be great. Lee Greenwood special appearance. Also the Ave Maria by the greatest opera singer since Pavarotti. Hit like hit. Subscribe Follow the channel Good luck, America.

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