1099: This Deranged New Campaign Ad Creeped Us Out!

Summary

The Next Level – Episode 1099: "This Deranged New Campaign Ad Creeped Us Out!"

Podcast: The Next Level
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Jonathan V. Last (JVL), Guest: Will Sommer
Date: July 21, 2026
Episode Overview:
This episode dives into the latest political drama around MAGA influencer Laura Loomer’s about-face on Ukraine, the evolving nature of anti-Semitism in GOP primaries (with a deep-dive on a bizarre new ad), the broader fragmentation and personality politics of the current U.S. right, and a hard look at key primary races in South Carolina and Michigan. The hosts blend incisive analysis with signature banter as they ask: What motivates influencers' shifts? What does "normal" now mean in Republican politics? And just how weird and performative can campaign tactics get?

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Main Themes & Structure

1. Laura Loomer’s Ukraine Pivot: Motivations & Influence
2. The Iran War: America's Apathy and Policy Paralysis
3. That Creepy GOP Ad: Anti-Semitism, AI, Outrage, and Cruz
4. Primary Highlights: Florida, South Carolina, and Michigan
5. Factional Fights & Future of Democrat/Republican Coalitions

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1. Laura Loomer’s Ukraine Pivot (00:30–14:45)

Breakdown

• Context: Pro-Trump influencer Laura Loomer, once a vocal Zelensky/Ukraine opponent, dramatically reverses her position after a trip to Ukraine.
• Her Statement: “I was living in a media echo chamber and I was propagandized by Russian media... I have a responsibility to correct the record.” (JVL quoting Loomer, 01:07)
• Hosts’ Skepticism:
  • Incentives are questioned. Is she “getting paid or did they stop getting paid?” (JVL/Sarah, 03:38, 03:51)
  • Loomer’s flip coincides with Trump becoming more overtly pro-Ukraine, and her MAGA rivals (Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens) getting cozy with Russia.
• Motivations:
  • “For Laura... her greatest enemies, people like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson... are aligned with Russia. They’re visiting Russia, speaking positively about Putin.” (Will, 05:08)
  • Maintaining proximity to Trump is everything. “She’ll do anything to stay on Trump’s good side.” (Will, 06:41)

Notable Quotes

• Sarah: “I think it is good when people apologize...when they are given information.” (02:19)
• Will: “[She] appeals to a certain woman...They like her. She’s brassy...she’s the ultimate Trump fighter.” (08:14)

Constituency Analysis

• Loomer’s Audience:
  • Not mainstream, not like Candace/Tucker’s reach.
  • “Very terminally online – her appeal is more to a Florida-esque, glitzy, not ‘trad wife’ Trump-party type.” (Sarah, 09:42)
• JVL’s Satire:
  • “Aren’t the crazies actually like sometimes just more moral and more grown up...What’s the real difference?” (14:45)

Memorable Moment

• Sandwiches in Court:
  • Will recounts Loomer’s infamous “Arby’s in her pants” allegation about Marjorie Taylor Greene, which was asserted as literal in sworn court testimony. (13:26–13:58)

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2. The Iran War & Global Apathy (19:37–27:42)

Breakdown

• War Fatigue:
  • JVL: “I have this sinking feeling...the Iran war becomes background...and Trump gets away with it all.” (20:19)
• Global Impact:
  • Sarah highlights regional destabilization beyond the US: “Destabilizing the Middle East and creating new problems.” (20:31)
• Political Calculus:
  • Will points out Republican power players want the war wound down before midterms to lower gas prices. (22:38)

Notable Quotes

• Sarah: “It is touching all kinds of people across the globe. It’s so easy for Americans to be like, well, war on, war off...” (20:31)
• JVL: “Trump has two maxims: you always move forward...and dominate, never admit defeat. He’s just psychologically caught.” (24:32)

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3. Creepy GOP Campaign Ad & Anti-Semitism in the Primaries (30:29–36:28)

Breakdown

• Ad Discussion:
  • Ted Cruz’s allies produced a bizarre AI-laden ad targeting primary candidate James Fishback with thinly-veiled homophobic and anti-Semitic dog whistles.
  • “Is this really what you want your Republican Party to look like?” (Ad audio, 30:52)
• Hosts’ Take:
  • “Republicans are really leaning into AI as a creation tool...This is sort of an unimaginable ad.” (Sarah, 32:06)
  • “At least Ted Cruz is saying something now [about anti-Semitism]...but he can’t just say ‘don’t elect this anti-Semitic guy’, he has to toss in scary [Middle Eastern] figures.” (Sarah, 32:54)

Political Implications

• Fishback’s Polling:
  • “He’s polling at about 10%...a lot more than you’d like to see for a total charlatan.” (Will, 34:01)
• National vs. Local Support:
  • The “hornet’s nest” of griper/Nick Fuentes-style online support doesn’t translate fully to votes but is still concerning at ~10%. (Sarah, 36:19)
• JVL’s Anecdote:
  • “I was in confession...behind me, a young guy in a Griper T-shirt. He misunderstands one of his two commitments.” (36:48)

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4. Key Primary Races: South Carolina & Michigan (37:11–52:16)

South Carolina Senate Appointment (37:11–43:20)

• Darlene Graham:
  • Chosen to temporarily fill a Senate seat, background in disability services.
  • “She didn’t ask the president to invoke martial law and prevent a peaceful transfer of power.” (JVL, 40:26)
  • Opponents: Ralph Norman (insurrection text), Russell Fry (impeachment revenge).
• Endorsements & Trump's Power
  • Trump endorses Graham; panel debates whether this still carries weight, especially when “every candidate is a MAGA type.” (Sarah, 41:37)
  • “I think this is headed towards Trump pulling the endorsement or endorsing everyone in the race.” (Will, 42:57)

Michigan Dem Primary: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens (43:50–52:55)

• Haley Stevens – Charisma or Cringe?
  • Viral video: “I am going to be doing it with a little bit of joy...because that’s the Michigan way.” (Stevens, 43:50)
  • JVL: “I don’t understand why people like [her]...how could she get two dozen people to vote for her?” (44:48)
  • Sarah: “It’s jarring...but that kind of stuff matters. It sounds like Michigan to Michiganders.” (45:07)
• ‘Authenticity’ & Local Vibes:
  • “She’s a goofball...that is authentic to her.” (Sarah, 48:14)
• Comparison: Stevens seen as “anti-matter Gavin Newsom”—not polished but potentially appealing because of it. (JVL, 49:25)
• Primary Dynamics:
  • “Voters think: look at these two great candidates I’ve got to choose from.” (Sarah, 47:25)
  • “Michigan now becomes the race we all start watching.” (Sarah, 50:22)

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5. Factional Fights & the Future of Coalitions (52:16–end)

The Stakes in Michigan

• This Primary as a Bellwether:
  • “If El-Sayed wins and loses the general...it will become the talking point against the left insurgency.” (Sarah, 51:55)
  • Contrasts “boring, workhorse” (Stevens/Roy Cooper) vs. DSA-aligned, insurgent (El-Sayed) factions.
• DSA Backlash:
  • Will: “There’s a growing backlash against DSA...The Democratic establishment has woken up.” (53:05)
• Primary Aftermath:
  • Can the Dems “put it back together” after a bruising, possibly blood feud-y primary? “When primaries turn into blood feuds...that is when Democrats lose.” (Sarah, 54:04)

Attention Economy & Niche Coalitions

• Campaigning with Hasan Piker:
  • “It used to be that if somebody was distasteful, you might not outright reject them, but you wouldn’t campaign with them...” (JVL, 58:39)
  • “Figures like Hasan Piker...not a household name, but can bring an engaged audience...People just assume: this guy’s streaming all day, he probably said something crazy.” (Will, 60:38)
• Fragmented Media = Fragmented Rules:
  • “Nobody really understands what the rules are anymore...these test cases can help us understand what voters think the rules are.” (JVL, 62:16)

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• JVL (Satirical Take): “Aren’t the crazies actually like sometimes just more moral and more grown up?” (14:45)
• Sarah (on attention and factions): “Part of the service the crazies provide...is dragging our attention to how insane they are, and away from the ‘serious’ but still damaged players.” (16:27)
• Will (on the ad): “That Fishback ad is deranged. The idea that these guys are a gay couple inviting the Ayatollah to dinner is just wild.” (paraphrased, 31:08)
• Sarah (on primaries): “When primaries turn into blood feuds...that’s when Democrats lose.” (54:04)
• Will (on modern coalitions): “People just think, really, what matters besides beating my enemies?” (60:38)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:30–14:45: Laura Loomer’s flip on Ukraine, influencer politics, MAGA factions, Loomer/Marjorie Taylor Greene feud
• 19:37–27:42: Iran war, voter/elite reactions, Trump’s approach
• 30:29–36:28: The deranged Fishback/Cruz ad; anti-Semitism in the GOP; nationalized fringe influences
• 37:11–43:20: South Carolina Senate race, Darlene Graham, power of Trump’s endorsements
• 43:50–52:55: Michigan Dem primary—Haley Stevens vs. Abdul El-Sayed, candidacy analysis, authenticity vs. polish
• 52:16–end: Factional conflicts, DSA backlash, primary aftershocks, modern coalition-building

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Takeaways & Closing Thoughts

• Influencer shifts are rarely about pure ideology—careers, rivalries, and financial incentives often rule.
• GOP is experimenting with AI in ads, sometimes in unsettling ways, while failing to address ugly underlying issues without sensationalizing.
• In both parties, personality-driven politics and tribal media bubbles mean “crazy” and “normal” are more about proximity and theater than substantive disagreements.
• The ground rules for coalition-building are in flux—attention economy trumps conventional wisdom.
• Performative authenticity and “cringe” may not be liabilities in a fragmented electorate.

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Endnote:
This episode gives a brisk, irreverent tour of what passes for “the next level” of American political campaigning. If you want to understand why social media drama now decides policy—or why a deranged campaign ad can be both toxic and a sign of progress—this is your pod.

[For full context and continued discussion, visit: www.thebulwark.com]

Transcript

[JVL]

All new drinks are now at McDonald's with refreshers like the Strawberry Watermelon Refresher

[Will Sommer]

and the Mango Pineapple Refresher with popping Boba. To crafted sodas like the Sprite Berry

[JVL]

Blast with berry flavors and cold foam.

[Will Sommer]

Who knew ice cold drinks could be so fire six. All new drinks are here now at McDonald's. Refreshers contain caffeine.

[JVL]

I am sorry to have to ask this, but when you see a social media influencer change their mind, my first question is always, Are they getting paid

[Sarah Longwell]

or did they stop getting paid or

[JVL]

did they stop getting paid?

[Sarah Longwell]

Did Russia stop paying her?

[JVL]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend, Sarah Longwell. My esteemed colleague Will Sommer, author of the False Flag newsletter, sitting in for Tim Miller, who's on vacation. We have a show packed with wonders and delights, and believe me, Laura Loomer is the best part of it. We're going to start with her. I'm not even going to make you wait. Normally I would tease and make you wait for the good stuff.

[Will Sommer]

Not today.

[JVL]

Laura Loomer is maybe the biggest grown up left in MAGA at this point. I'm Ron Burgundy. This is. We're going to begin with Laura. Laura has some things she wanted to get off her chest this week. Here's a headline from the Kyiv Post. Pro Trump influencer Lara Loomer visits Ukraine, changes tone on Russia. She had a long Twitter post about this and she says that she was. I'll just read to it. I was living in a media echo chamber and I was propagandized by Russian media on social media to believe those things. I came to Ukraine to see the country for myself. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. On day one, I've already seen photos of dead priests in Bucha murdered by Russia. And I saw the mass grave where the bodies of murdered Christians were placed after Russia sent forced from Chechnya to massacre innocent people who are the Nazis. Hmm. She has an emoji there. I was lied to for years. I realized Ukraine and Zelensky aren't the jihadi apologists, but Russia and Putin are. I was wrong. I have a responsibility to correct the record.

[Sarah Longwell]

No lies detected in this narrow frame right here. But yes, good, good. Like I've always said, I think it is good when people apologize. I think it is good when people change their positions when they are given information. I don't know that we require a wholesale reevaluation of Laura Loomer in light of this information, but maybe Will Sommer has a different opinion.

[Will Sommer]

Well, look, I mean, I've spent many years of my life pondering what goes on in Laura Loomer's brain, you know, her motivations. And, yeah, about a few weeks ago, she. She had traditionally, for the past several years, been very like, anti Ukraine, anti Zelinsky, you know, all the kind of classic MAGA talking points. You know, Zelensky's living high on the hog. All the. All these various allegations. And then a few weeks. So she suddenly was like, wait a minute. I mean, she'd even written for rt, all this stuff. Suddenly she said, I've been brainwashed. I'm giving it all up now. She's very like, slava, Ukraine. Y. This is very like 2022. She went to a. So now she's in Ukraine and she went to a McDonald's that was, like, hit by Russian drones. And she said, you know, this being, you know, the right way, a lot of focus on women's appearance. She said, I don't normally order fast food, but for this I will order, you know, a Big Mac and a Diet Coke. You know, Ukraine is part of the west, all of this stuff. So it's about face.

[JVL]

Well, I. I am sorry to have to ask this, but when you see a social media influencer change their mind, my first question is always, are they getting paid?

[Will Sommer]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Or did they stop getting paid?

[JVL]

Or did they stop getting paid? Maybe not. Maybe this is totally unfair to Laura Loom. I don't know. But, you know, it does seem like what we've heard from our friend Ashley Sinclair and all sorts of people, that there is a lot of Paola in the world of, like, maga, Twitter. Yes.

[Will Sommer]

Well, and to Sarah's point, I mean, the head of RT tweeted, well, well, well, I see Laura has switched sides. Yes. So I think in her case in particular, I would not rule it out. She has, you know, as I've documented in False Flag, she's taken a lot of kind of weird policy angles. Politico had a story about how she was, like, up in the muck in these various kind of schemes regarding, like, Venezuelan oil exports. She claims she hasn't been paid. You know, I think probably, you know, the evidence suggests she has in this case, I think. So I can't rule out any payments. She has also really been embraced by the Ukrainian government. Zelensky's office said, you know, it's very important that we welcome Laura. On the other hand, I think there's maybe a more personal motivation here. I mean, for Laura, I think there's two things that are really most important in the world. Israel, and it's kind of slavish devotion to Donald Trump. And I think, number one, she's seen Trump really become more hawkish on Ukraine, saying they can manufacture Patriot missiles, all these things. And also though she recognizes that her greatest enemies opposing Israel, people like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, they are also aligned with Russia. They're visiting Russia, speaking very positively about Putin. So I think that's also what's driving her.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can I just second that? That was my take also, is that

[JVL]

Boomer is, oh, it's all about Israel.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, I think. No, it's about Tucker. I think she is trying to position herself very much as the anti Tucker. And so if Tucker is anti Israel and pro Russia, I think Loomer's move is to be pro Israel, anti Russia. Now she comes by the Israel stuff, I think, honestly. But I think the about face has a little bit to do with wanting to. And also, Tucker and Candace, you may like, they are now on the outs of Trump's inner circle. And so this is a good way, I think, for her to continue to position herself as relational to Trump, but also because that is where Laura Loomer does make her money. Laura Loomer does have more information than often reporters and other people because she does have Trump takes her on trips sometimes. And the only thing I'll say is that to the extent that there's America first and MAGA establishment, the one thing I can't puzzle out, Will, is there's no home for her in the MAGA establishment. Like, she's still Laura Loomer. So she's not. It's not like Marco Rubio is suddenly like, Laura, what have you, you know, come be part of our Mike Johnson. And maybe not. Maybe they will just because Trump talks to her. But she seems to be carving out sort of an odd space. But I do think it is maybe just like I am in proximity to Trump and therefore that is enough.

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, I mean, look, she is in this position, as you said, where, you know, she's kind of alienated herself from a lot from like the Grapers. I mean, she used to be tight with Nick Fuentes. Not anymore. People like Tucker. Candace, on the other hand, as you said, she really doesn't have. It's not as though the GOP establishment is going to welcome her in. So for a long time, really has been. She has a connection to Trump and that's it. And she has that because she is like his number one die hard fan who will never go against him. And so, you know, whether it was Trump wanted to hire her for the campaign in 2024, and then Susie Wiles or Marjorie Taylor Greene were like, no, you can't do that. That's why she sued Bill Maher for saying she was having an affair with Trump, precisely because that got her kicked off the plane. So, you know, she'll do anything to stay on Trump's good side. And as he, you know, gets back on board with Ukraine and Zelensky, I think that may explain also what's going on here.

[JVL]

I have a question for both of you, and maybe neither of you can answer it. Is there a constituency for Laura Loomer? Like, is there a baby? I mean, I understand that there is a. An elite constituency among, like, other influencers who pay attention to her because she is a figure somehow. That's the thing that's gotten. But art, I don't know, like, if you're drawing up, like, actual people in Mega World, people who vote for Donald Trump or. Or are very online or what, like, because it seems like, I don't know, like, there ain't a whole lot of popular support for what she's selling. But I don't know, maybe I'm wrong.

[Will Sommer]

I think there is, weirdly enough. I think you're right. It's. I don't think there.

[JVL]

She doesn't have a podcast where you can point to. She gets 10 million viewers a week.

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, so she has a podcast because that's famously. She ate dog food to promote one of her sponsors. Right. So. So she does have a podcast. It's definitely not like Candace Owens or Tucker level, but I think, you know, when she ran for Congress, I was talking to Laura Loomer superfans, and I think she appeals to a certain woman who would kind of, like, they like her. She's. She's brassy, you know, I mean, often I think they're. They're Jewish themselves. So she's just like kind of a much more mainline Trumpian, you know, like, she's the ultimate Trump fighter. And I think there is an audience that likes that.

[JVL]

Sarah, have you ever had somebody in a focus group who is like, boy, that Laura Loomer, I like that girl.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, she's aces. It's true. She does not come up the way Tucker and Candace do. Like, she is not. She is very terminally online, and I think she is considered more in terminally online spaces than in mainstream ones. And this is why, when I write a piece about Candace Owens, I'M like, this has gone mainstream, guys. Like, she comes up both sides of the aisle from people. She is being listened to unironically by lots of people, but also as a matter of entertainment. That's not true of Laura Loomer. I do think that Will is right, though, that, like, and this is the part of our media fragmentation is. You can imagine the Laura Loomer listener who is maybe like, from South Florida, likes to. Likes. Likes a good party in a tight dress, but also. And is.

[Will Sommer]

But.

[Sarah Longwell]

And loves, like, the flash and the glitz, the tackiness of Maga World, but also loves that she throws punches. Loves that she's like, they're not trad wives. They're more. They're a different breed of something that's more like, boy, I don't quite know how to describe this.

[JVL]

Maybe like Ann Coulter.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, yeah. But it's like a new wave Ann Coulter thing. Yeah. Ann Coulter's a good corollary from a different era.

[JVL]

The only thing Ann Coulter could sell books. You know, that's what I'm getting at. Like, I just. I don't think.

[Sarah Longwell]

But that's because that's from an era when people read. Right? Like. Like, we're no longer in an era where people read. We're in an era where people follow people on Twitter. And I think Laura Loomer, she knows how to beef, man. And I think that so did Ann Coulter.

[JVL]

So I would like to. I. I don't want anybody to get the. The idea that I am anti Loomer, because I'm not. I'm here to make the case to the two of you. You guys can tell me if I'm wrong that Laura Loomer is one of the grown ups. And as evidence, Exhibit A. When our buddy Tim Miller was at a TP USA after party in 2024, a impaired Kari Lake came up and started just screaming at him. And it became like a whole thing. There were stories written about this and whatnot, and the voice of reason in this story was Laura Loomer who came over to Carrie Lake like an adult and said, yeah, okay, sure. No, we don't like. Tim, what are you doing? Come on, let's go. Let's. Let's go.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay.

[JVL]

And broke the whole thing up.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, no, no.

[JVL]

This is a thing that happened.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I know it is. I know it is. But there's a difference between. Hold on.

[JVL]

I'm not done.

[Will Sommer]

I'm not done.

[JVL]

That's only exhibit A, Sarah. Exhibit B. When the Qataris handed Donald Trump a gigantic Airplane and said, here, use this thing for, for your Air Force One. Laura Loomer said, no, don't do that. That's a bad idea. Why are you doing that?

[Sarah Longwell]

Because it's self evidently a bad idea.

[JVL]

Exhibit C. When Donald Trump nominated Casey Means, the crazy lady to be Surgeon General of these United States, Laura Loomer said, this is ridiculous. Don't do this. Laura Loomer is anti Candace. Candace Owens, super popular Megyn Kelly is trying to not beef with, with Candace. Laura Loomer is all in on that. I'm just saying, like, I don't know, she's above the median for normal somehow in Trump too.

[Will Sommer]

If I could just reject there. I mean, I think, you know, number one, we have to mention her insane hatred of Muslims. Right? I mean, you know, you know, obviously that's not good. You know, I think you're often making the correct point. In the case of the Qatar plane, she did back off of it when Trump was like, I don't think you get it. I really want this nice plane. And then also, I mean there, there is a, she often seems to have an ulterior motive. Like the Casey Means thing. You know, there were a lot of accusations from the Maha people that she was like in the pay of big pharma somehow it was a weird one. You know, she was saying Casey Means is doing witchcraft. All this. So often the, the criticism, I, I, I don't think maybe the motivation I don't agree with, but, but I think directionally sometimes she, she is right. And certainly in the world of like MAGA personalities, probably more right than Vinnie.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, but hold on. Can we just, just to put JBL in the context of I view Laura Loomer much like I view Marjorie Taylor Greene and her.

[JVL]

That's what I was waiting for you to bring up.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes, yes.

[JVL]

Because this is the big problem.

[Will Sommer]

Right.

[JVL]

How could it be that the two, the two consciences of Maga in the year of our Lord 2026 hate each other because Laura Loomer and MTG have a blood feud.

[Sarah Longwell]

They're not serious.

[JVL]

Do you remember what it was that Laura Loomer said about Marjorie Taylor Greene's sandwiches? Do you recall that?

[Will Sommer]

Yes. It was put in sworn court testimony, in a deposition. Yes. This isn't the Bill Maher lawsuit. And she said because she was essentially the opposing counsel, was making a point. Well, can't you sometimes speak figuratively about sort of, sort of a funny way without it being true? And they said, you said Marjorie Taylor Greene has Arby's in her pants. What did you mean by this? And of course, she's saying Marjorie Taylor Green is promiscuous. It's the implication that it's roast beef. And so instead Laura said, well, it was my understanding that she likes to put sandwiches in her pants. And so, you know, she stuck to

[JVL]

my best knowledge and belief.

[Will Sommer]

That was a fact.

[JVL]

Marjorie Taylor Greene likes to take sandwiches from Arby's and put them into her pants. That's what I meant by that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. I think, jbl, I think this can be answered in the broken clock, right, twice a day vein of these people, where I do think, to Will's point, you should judge them by the totality of their works. And the totality of their works are quite awful. Just because they are correct here or there doesn't make them. And the fact that they hate each other, I think is again, because this is much more about proximity and influence, proximity to Trump influence over the Republican Party than it is about having like a position they care about.

[JVL]

So look, I have to concede, of course you're right. Of course you're right.

[Sarah Longwell]

I appreciate your commitment to the bit, but.

[JVL]

No, it's not a bit. It's what I'm trying to do is sort of a Jonathan Swift style satire here to underscore the point that what is the difference really between Laura Loomer and Mick Mulvaney or Laura Loomer and J.D. vance, or Laura Loomer and Kevin, you know, my Kevin, all of the supposed grown ups, right? Lutnick, like all these people who, who are supposed to be the grown ups as opposed to the crazies. Is there really a difference? Like, aren't the crazies actually like sometimes just more moral and more grown up or just as much as they are? And that's what I'm trying to get across. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe you think that Mike Kevin is ultimately better than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't, I don't. And actually you're making an. If we, if we spent more time on this, and I thought about it hard, I could probably come up with something about how these sort of more crazy influencers, part of the service that they provide to the Republican Party is sort of dragging our attention over to how insane they are, which sort of keeps us from just grappling with the true players and how each one of them is disqualified because, I mean, the people surrounding Trump that are what. But serious, what, Jason Miller or Howard Lutnick who lied to us about his Epstein affairs? Is it, is it, you know, Marco Rubio, who has decided to just abdicate on Iran and like decided not to get involved so J.D. vance could take J.D. vance himself. The dogs and cats, like these are all, every. They are all Laura Loomers, every single one of them.

[JVL]

But they wear the suit of respectability. All right, we're gonna move on. First we have to have a word from our sponsor though, Sarah. A sponsor who I have a lot of curiosity about.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, this show is sponsored by Soul Gummies. And by this show, I mean the next level is sponsored by Seoul Gummies. They say balance is the key to life. Well, I gotta say, Seoul nailed that with their new mood gummies. If I need a pick me up, a wind me down or something in between, they've got perfectly balanced formulas designed to keep me level. And these are perfect because jbl, we haven't been talking as much lately. You've been out. I don't know if we've talked about the seriousness with which I am committed to my fitness journey. Okay, I'm in the gym. You know who sees me in the gym? You know who we see? Will. Summer and I see each other in the gym.

[JVL]

Wow.

[Sarah Longwell]

We can't really talk about it too much publicly because both of us are in our, you know, workout skivvies. Do you know the Will Summer drinks coffee while he works out? He can't.

[JVL]

He has like a coffee cup filled with creatine.

[Will Sommer]

Yes. Well, I, I'm new to creatine.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes, his muscles are big. But I'm also trying to get. I'm a, I'm a. I'm a 46 year old woman in the process of trying to make sure that my bone density and other things hold up for the long term. So I'm on a fitness journey and so I've had to cut back on how much I'm drinking. And so the soul gummies have become my go to for how I relax. SOL is a wellness brand that makes delicious hemp derived CBD and THC products designed to make feeling good simple. Soul's new Mood gummies have precise dosing, clean ingredients and formulations designed for predictable effects so you can choose how you want to feel while staying in control. And this is the best part here. If you're looking for a bright, social and energizing buzz, go with Uplift gummies, which is 3 milligrams of Sativa, THC and CBG. Perfect for daytime plans or beating the afternoon slump. When it's time to wind down, the mellow gummies deliver 3mg of Indiga THC plus CBN. Ideal for cozy nights and fully unplugging. What I like about this. Talking about 3 milligrams, guys. Nice and low. Even JVL could handle this. Okay, we are not talking about everybody getting blown out. This is just like a little bit of chill. It's like having a cocktail in the evening, Laurel. Like an energizing something in the morning. Make today a good day and get yourself some soul gummies. Right now, Seoul is offering my audience 30 off your entire order. Go to getsoul.com and use the code. The next level. Don't forget the.

[JVL]

The.

[Sarah Longwell]

The next level. That's getsol.com promo code. The next level. For 30 off on your fitness journey.

[JVL]

Have you considered getting a peloton?

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, yeah, my peloton sitting there with clothes on it.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's not part of my fitness journey anymore.

[JVL]

Same new subscribers may not remember that early in this thing on the secret show, I badgered Sarah to get a peloton so we could work out together. And we both got pelotons. And I don't know, six months later and what happens? Our pelotons were collecting laundry.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's right. One of many things JBL has forced me to buy that we don't use.

[JVL]

I mean, a lot of things I buy for you

[Sarah Longwell]

to show up at the house.

[JVL]

So we've got a war going on. This is the other major war happening to. To our east. The war in Iran is back on. We this weekend had a number of American service members kill. The Department of Defense does not seem to be transparent about what is happening to members of the armed services. Totally normal, I guess. Now we have the Iranians blowing up. They claim that they hit an Amazon data center in Bahrain and the price of gas is back over $4 a gallon nationally. I just have a global question. Does any of this matter? Because I have this sinking feeling that we're just hunkering down into a world of Groundhog Day where the Iran war becomes background. No. And people won't even really have a clear sense of what the price of gas is. They'll be like, well, it's up a little. Oh, it's down a little. It's, you know, who can say anymore? And Trump gets away with it all.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, you say global, and I'm gonna. It matters a lot to other people around the globe. I mean, part of what is striking to me about the Iran war now is how much it is like pulling in Kuwait and Jordan and the Houthis and Bahrain and like, he's destabilizing further destabilizing the Middle east and creating sort of new problems. And the fighting is spreading beyond. I mean, sometimes I was trying to explain to my kids last night about being at war, and I was had to be like, so this is happening. But you guys have to recognize how lucky we are in some sense that it doesn't touch us, but it is touching all kinds of people across the globe. It's so easy for Americans to be like, well, war on, war off, but it is, it can escalate now for all kinds of reasons that aren't even. Don't even have to do with us. Right. They're all bombing each other now or getting into it. And can I actually, I'm going to bring up one more analogy, and you can tell me if this is stupid or not, but when I was watching soccer, I, you know, I got into the World cup and I watched all the games and it was fun to sort of, as somebody who doesn't really watch a lot of soccer except when the women's World cup team is playing. And I've got, you know, I've got got tickets to the spirit here in D.C. but like watching a bunch of different teams, you see that they have this way in the beginning of matches, often of like, feeling each other out, they kind of go tit for tat. And everybody plays more defense than offense because, you know, everyone's trying to get a feel for the rhythms right now. It feels like we're in that rhythm. But then at some point everybody says, now we got to start playing. And they like, kick into gear and they start attacking hard because at some point someone's got to win. And I feel like that kind of, that at some point we do this 10 days of bombing, they start bombing other people. Everybody sort of sees what proportional response looks like, how much does it. And like. But at some point it either everyone decides to de escalate or there's no choice but to ramp up. And I could very easily see it going either way.

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, I mean, you know, obviously Sarah would know better than I do about how voters react to the gas prices. But I think, I mean, look, she mentioned the Houthis. The Houthis now are going to start attacking the Saudi oil infrastructure. I mean, if we look at it domestically, I think, you know, the gas prices are going to stay high. I think voters remember that. And I think more maybe most importantly, from my perspective, I think we can see that kind of Republican power players and media figures are we're saying, you know, when Trump was laying down the MoU, they were saying, we gotta wrap this up, man. I don't care how much you give to Iran. The midterms are coming up and we need to call this war off because we need to get the gas prices down. And so I think now that the war seems to be flaring up again, getting back on, I think, you know, Yeah, I think that is a problem for Republicans.

[JVL]

So I wrote about this today, Sarah. I don't know if. I don't know if you had a chance to read it or not. Oh, look at that. Look who got caught. Not having done the reading.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not yet. I'll get to it. What'd you say?

[Will Sommer]

So what it.

[JVL]

What I was trying to tease out was the. This mystery of why Trump hasn't just left, right? He got his memorandum of understanding. He could have left, right? And I mean, some of the comments are like, you know, Iran wouldn't let him. No, that's, that's not the case. If Donald Trump wanted to just pull all of the forces that he had moved in theater and run up to the war out of the war, gone back, and basically said, well, strait's yours, you guys figure, you know, then Iran can't pull anybody into anything, right? Iran will make its own deals with everybody else. Iran controls the strait, the rest of the world moves on. Now, that would be very, very bad and irresponsible of America to do, but no more bad and irresponsible than starting this stupid fucking war in the first place. And what I said is that Trump has these two maxims that he holds to. And the first is you always move forward, right? You just, if things get bad, you just create another shit show to distract people with and you, you know, you just start a new storyline and make yourself the star of this next storyline, too. Don't get bogged down. But the other one is like, dominate, dominate, dominate. Never admit defeat. And I think the problem is that he's just psychologically is caught, like, the idea of walking away and totally having lost, it's just like, it's unthinkable to him. And what he should do is just walk. I mean, just by his own lights and his own political lights. That would be the best thing to do if he cared about, like, the future political slash electoral success of Donald Trump. But he doesn't have it in him.

[Sarah Longwell]

What if it's even stupider than that?

[JVL]

Always possible, probably, yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Where Donald Trump sometimes, in matters where he, like, doesn't really know what he's doing right. He's easily influenced by the last person he talked to. And I think that part of the reason you get the vicissitudes of war on, war off is that you get, like, at some time, he's talking to, like, the generals who are telling him, like, we've got to finish this job because now they control the Straits, so we've got to go bomb them, and we can bomb them effectively or whatever. And there are people in his orbit who are, you know, Mark Thiessen or whatever at the Wall street or Washington Post, you know, who are urging him in that direction. And. And if they say to him, sir, you're a laughingstock, Obama would never have done this deal. They're going to say, you did a deal worse than Obama. And in that moment, he's like, tell them to go do the war. And then gas prices shoot up and he starts getting tons of calls from, you know, Republicans in Congress saying, you got to stop this war because the gas prices are going to kill us, we're going to lose this election, and then there's going to be oversight on you, sir. You don't want that. Then he's like, stop the war. Everybody say there's a deal. Or, you know, like, I'm not sure we're dealing with somebody who. It's not like we've got somebody with a plan here.

[Will Sommer]

I think there's a lot to that. I mean, you know, add in Bibi Netanyahu, add in the Gulf countries and whatever weird financial arrangements the Trump family has with. With them. And so you can imagine that, you know, there's just so many competing interests telling Trump what to do that he's kind of in this bind.

[JVL]

I understand what you're saying about the people being the laughingstock. And the last thing people say to him being. And I think that's probably the right answer. But at the same time, I look at this and I think, yes, he would be laughing stock. Everybody say, well, what about Obama? But you just wait a week and then invade Cuba. Right? I mean, he. He could just press forward with this the way he does with everything else.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know, but it kind of seems like they have that plan in their back. Pocke rocket, too. Yeah.

[JVL]

So why don't just do it now? Right? I mean, it's like, yeah, we're out. Laugh at me first, and then I'll say, I was the one who liberated

[Sarah Longwell]

Cuba, maybe, except American service members are dying now. I mean, this gets hard, right? These are the moments when people in your ear start to say, well, you can't just let them kill American service members without coming back at them hard. Like, this is how things escalate.

[JVL]

Yeah, maybe that's what it is. All right, time for a word from our next sponsor. This show is sponsored by Bull and Branch. It's summertime here in the Big Apple and I want to just sort of speak some real talk. So when we get our advertisers, the nice people at Bull and Branch send us stuff to use, which is great and I'm very grateful for it. I'm so devoted to this product and I'm an actual real evangelist for Bol and Branch. Even not on podcast ads. Like, I'll just talk about this with my friends. Like, are you sleeping on bowl and Branch at home? And they're like, this isn't a show. I'm like, I know it's not, but I want to make your life better. And so we had a period of a couple months here where actually I, you know, people know we had some drama in my family and sleeping arrangements were all messed up and I was actually sleeping in one of the kids rooms on a twin size bed which did not have bowl and Branch sheets. I did one night on this thing without bowling branch sheets and I came, I was like, nope, nope, nope, this isn't going to work. So I went to bowl and Branch with my very own money and bought their signature sheets and bought one of their twin sized waffle blankets for my own self with my own money because I couldn't sleep without it. And once I had it, I slept better. I slept cooler, I was more comfortable, it was more relaxing. You spend like between five and eight hours a night a day sleeping. You ought to treat yourself to this stuff. When you amortize it out, it is such a bargain. So this is my genuine plea to people. Treat yourselves well. Get yourselves Bolan Branch stuff. It's fantastic. Their sheets are 100% organic cotton woven specifically for airflow, not just softness. 94% of bowl and Branch customers say their sheets get softer with every watch. I will just tell you that that's true. They do get softer with every wash. Sleep cooler this summer with bowl and branch get 15% off your first order plus free [e-mail] nextlevel with code next level. That's Boland Branch. B O L L A N D branch.com next level code next level to unlock 15% off bull and branch.com next level code next level exclusions apply. So we got some hot primary talk for Today. And I'm gonna. I'm gonna swerve, do a little heel turn for you guys in wrestling parlance. But first. First we have to go to the James Fishback race and a 501C4ad put up by allies of Ted Cruz attempting to combat anti Semitism in the Republican. I just.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry.

[JVL]

We just have to watch it to be able to talk about it. Is this really what you want your

[Will Sommer]

Republican Party to look like?

[JVL]

It's time to act before normal people are shut out of the GOP forever?

[Will Sommer]

Frontline action is responsible for the content of this advertising.

[Sarah Longwell]

Everyone's having a normal one chop it

[Will Sommer]

up in the cemetery.

[JVL]

Yeah. I mean, at the first layer is the idea that Fishback and the other dude are a gay couple. Is that supposed to be subtext as part of this? Am I reading my own headcanon into it?

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, your ship. Yeah. So that's Dan Bilzerian. Yeah. I think you're probably right that there's this idea that they're this gay couple and they're inviting people like the Ayatollahs. They're inviting. Getting Putin and his generals over and.

[JVL]

And a bunch of squad. The squad. Right. Squadron. To leave. And also terrorists.

[Sarah Longwell]

We had terrorists.

[JVL]

Code Pink.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, Code Pink. And then Candace and Tucker.

[JVL]

Candace and Tucker too. Yeah. I mean, I don't even quite know what to say. And so I. I'll start with you, Sarah. Are we in favor of this? Because we think, well, at least Ted Cruz is saying something now. Or do we think, you know what? I'm gonna love watching leopards eat this fucker's face.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, we can take a little of column A, a little from column B on this one. I think I wanna start with the AI of it all, which I do think if we just go back a couple years, like this is sort of an unimaginable ad. But Republicans really are leaning into AI as a creation tool, which is how you can. The fact is, the squad probably isn't gonna go over to the house of Dan Balzerian, but you can make it thus now to prove your weird horseshoe point that you want to make if you're Ted Cruz. Look, I think the fact that Ted Cruz isn't doing the sort of Scott Jennings anti Semitism only exists on the left shtick is good. Is good. No, it's straightforwardly good.

[JVL]

It's good.

[Sarah Longwell]

And what he. Although, you know, the way that Republicans do this stuff is always, always. This is like a key move from, like, both anti. Antis and old Republicans and conservatives, where they're like, you don't want to be like the left. Like, they couldn't just say, fish back this absolutely anti semitic forward. And this isn't coded. This isn't like this guy is an anti Semite. He is a racist. It is how he's running. It is the campaign that he is running straightforwardly. And so Ted Cruz is basically saying this guy shouldn't be welcome in the Republican Party. Okay, true. Shouldn't be welcomed by any party anywhere. But also to make him bad, he tosses in a bunch of, you know, scary guys in, you know, head dresses or not head. What. What would it be like, turbans? Yeah, I guess. Is that the technical name of what. But like, he throws in the ayatollahs, he throws in the squad. Can't just say, hey, we should probably not elect this super anti semitic guy. So, you know, little. Both.

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, I, you know, I, I think, look, the Fishback race, he's polling at about 10%, according to a Tony Fabrizio poll out today. So, you know, pretty, you know, a lot more than you would like to see for, like, a total charlatan. The other Fishback news is he's facing a lawsuit from another candidate relating to his residency. The candidate's arguing he doesn't meet the qualifications to run because he hasn't lived in Florida long enough. To give you an idea of the twist turns in this race. To defend his case that he's a Florida resident, James Fishback has introduced a prior lawsuit against him for allegedly having sex with an underage high school student. So that's on the pro Fishback side now that he's adding that as evidence. So, I mean, it's a messy, messy race. And yeah, I mean, I think to Ted Cruz's credit, I guess, you know, he's waiting in here.

[JVL]

Okay, well, I guess the good news is Fishback won't win his race.

[Will Sommer]

Yeah, but you know what? I think it's concerning that a guy who is such a, like, comical charlatan who has about like five different scandals, you know, he's like $2 million in debt, all this stuff that he's able to, you know, get close to 10%.

[JVL]

You know what? I'll take the other side of that. I think that he's only at 10% is. I would not have guessed that if you had sort of just drawn this picture to me six months ago and said, where do you think this guy will pull? I would have gone with like, 30. And so I, I think this Is this is a good sign? This is good. Good on Republican voters in Florida. Look at me, look at me. Giving them credit where they're due. Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I would say on the negative side because no longer like in this race and there's a lot of places like this and I hope we're going to talk about some actual real Senate races in a second, which is, you know, like Michigan moment.

[JVL]

All in good time.

[Sarah Longwell]

But a lot of these races get. They get through run through a national prism now. And so Fishback has found himself a real national audience on the griper, right. That can sort of flirt with the Nick Fuentes side that can flirt with what was once the loomers. Like there's a. A hornet's nest of degeneracy that is a cesspool all wrapped together that is bigger. Like he could only you could there. You can only find 10% of them in any given race when they actually run for something. But they make up a not insignificant.

[JVL]

They might be 10% nationally. That's a problem, right?

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[JVL]

Like 10, 30 million people in this country. That's quick math. 33 million people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. And this is my whole, my whole life right now and has been for many years is trying to sort of cleave off both. Like the good news is always okay. They don't have enough votes to like win an election. The bad news is it's not half a percent. Like it's a meaningful number of people when you look at it.

[JVL]

I mean if Tim were here, this would be funny. But this is because it's just Catholic humor that I will, I will. Neither of you will get this, but somebody in the who's Catholic in the audience will get this. I was in line for confession last week and this like young 20s kid comes in and gets in line behind me. He's wearing a Groiper T shirt. I thought this guy misunderstands one of these two commitments.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[JVL]

I don't know if he misunderstands what the groipers are or if he misunderstands what the Catholic Church is, but he's not super clear on both. Okay, so now we move on to South Cackalacky where we have a new senator, Darlene with an I Graham, who because of her excellent qualifications has been named as a sitting senator for these United States by Donald Trump. She announced yesterday, I think, that she's decided to seek full election for the seat the. The primary is. When is that? August 11th. So there will be less than one full month from the death of the senator to the primary to choose the party's next senator. That's great. Here's where I'm gonna swerve. I think Darlene Graham is probably the best option.

[Sarah Longwell]

What do you mean by that? Do you mean she's the best option from, like, our perspective than one of the sort of more entrenched guys that would pop up here?

[JVL]

Let me paint a picture, and the three of the three of you, the two of you can tell me where I'm wrong. So Darlene Graham has had no public life before this moment. What she has done is basically done social work. For her whole professional career, she has worked for adults with disabilities, specifically blind people in the state of South Carolina. That seems like pretty good foundation for understanding the. At least the idea of public service. And she is running against. She has two primary challengers. She's running against Congressman Ralph Norman. Now, you may remember him from the Insurrection. He's the guy who texted Mark Meadows in the run up to the Insurrection and demanded that the president invoke Marshall M A R S H A L L law. Do you guys remember that? That's him. And the other guy is Russell Fry, who was elected to Congress in 2022 as retribution against Tom Rice, who voted to impeach Trump. And so he is a guy who is a cat's paw of Trump who came in specifically to go after somebody who had voted to impeach the guy. And so when you have a guy who is in favor of a coup, another guy who was elected to get retribution for people who did the coup, and then this woman who spent her adult life doing public service like, I don't know. I'll take Darlene Graham.

[Will Sommer]

I think that's a reasonable way to look at it. Yeah. I mean, you know, I think there's obviously, I think, a lot of MAGA grassroots anger over, look, they didn't love Lindsey Graham. Now they're putting in. Trump is endorsing her sister, putting her in. I think there's a question about whether she's even eligible to run.

[JVL]

There is a question about this.

[Will Sommer]

The South Carolina gop, there's, like, some internal drama over closing primaries and Democrats switching parties. So they put in this rule saying that, you know, you have to have voted in two out of three. The last.

[Sarah Longwell]

The.

[Will Sommer]

Of the most recent primaries, she voted in one primary in a runoff. So, you know, I think there's this. There's gonna be a real challenge to her.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can I say there's a. There's another angle to this that to me is more interesting because I don't know her from Adam, like maybe, but you're kind of rolling.

[JVL]

I didn't either. But she didn't ask the president to invoke martial law and prevent a peaceful transfer of power.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, that's true, that's true. She's also related to Lindsey Glow Bar Sarah. She's also related to Lindsey Gamp. So like we'll see, we'll see about that. Yet to me what is interesting is Trump's endorsement and how much juice it continues to carry in a world. And this, this started to happen in 2022, but I think has taken on much is now as Trump is more, even more lame duck because then it still seemed like he could have a political future and of course now he does. But like when every candidate in the race is a die hard MAGA type. Right. And has been like full throatedly read to overturn every election at Trump's behest, does Trump, the person's full on endorsement matter the way that it used to? I think the answer might be no. That like I think she might actually do quite poorly. Maybe for the reason that you're even saying, which is for people like us, we're like, well maybe the devil you don't know is better than this real devil you do. And so that alone could make her do not as well.

[JVL]

I would say that when you look at some of the places his endorsements haven't worked yet, they've been at state specific offices. So they've been. For instance, he wasn't able to unseat Brian Kemp. When he tried to go after Brian Kemp, he wasn't able to get his person for governor of Georgia over the line. He wasn't able to get his person for governor of South Carolina this cycle over the line. And so there may be like a difference between people evaluating state level offices versus sending people to Congress. Right, right. Because it Congress there's a, a little bit more of a direct like oh yeah, MAGA matters to me, you know, and Trump matters. But maybe not. I don't know. It'll be interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know. There was the, there was the Iowa race where the kind of Maha guy beat out Randy Feanstra who had Trump's endorsement. Like we've started to see a couple of these where Trump's endorsement doesn't pull someone over the finish line the way it did in 2022 or even there. But like just remember, JD Vance is only vice president because he became a senator of Ohio because Trump plucked him out of that crowded field and said, fine, I'll take that guy. And just, like, dragged him just enough over, which demonstrated Trump's power. And I'm not sure he's got, like, that level of juice now.

[JVL]

Also, Peter Thiel's money.

[Will Sommer]

I was just gonna say, I think this is headed towards Trump, like, pulling the endorsement or endorsing everyone in the race. One of these things where he's like, you know what? Sorry, Darlene, I can't.

[JVL]

I can't.

[Will Sommer]

I can't stick with you anymore.

[JVL]

Yeah, very possible. Although, you know, the weird thing is, because it's so fast, we probably won't even get any reliable polling. So Trump won't be able to have the benefit of understanding which way the wind is blowing.

[Sarah Longwell]

Pretty sure he can get a poll in the field.

[JVL]

You can, but, like, you know, you could get a poll or two, but these things are always most reliable when you have a bunch of polls and you can, you know, average them out. Okay, so the big one is Michigan, where we have Abdul El Said versus Haley Stevens. And I'm gonna need you to explain this to me like I'm a golden retriever, because we have some video of Haley Stevens that I'd like to play and then discuss.

[Sarah Longwell]

I am going to be working on our behalf. I am going to be telling the stories on our behalf. And you better believe I'm going to be doing it with a little bit of joy, a little bit of enthusiasm, a little bit of energy, and a little bit of stick it to them, because that's the Michigan way.

[JVL]

So, Sarah, I want to admit that I frequently have a blind spot for a certain type of charisma. For instance, when I was a young child watching professional wrestling, I never understood why people liked Dusty Rhodes, the American Dream. Like, I would watch this guy blathering with his lisp, and he was fat, and he had had, like, a receding hairline, bleached blonde hair. And I was like, why do people root for this guy? He's weird. I did. I just. I didn't get the appeal. Maybe that's what's happening with Haley Stevens. I don't like, but I look at that. That woman, and I think, how could she get two dozen people to vote for her?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, that clip has gone around quite widely as a. To be mocked among sort of the political set as cringe. And I think it plays in Michigan.

[JVL]

It might. Well, this is what I'm saying. Like, I may just not understand that.

[Sarah Longwell]

So there's a couple things. One, have you ever met Gretchen Whitmer or really listened to her talk?

[JVL]

I've listened to her talk and I felt the same thing. I did not understand why people thought she was a major political talent.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. So she's.

[JVL]

You and I have had this fight a lot.

[Sarah Longwell]

We have. It is jarring. I found it when Gretchen Whitmer and I were like, talking in real life. I was like, sort of taken aback by how thick her accent is, which comes out much more when you're just chatting than even when she's giving a speech or something. Much more sort of structured. And that kind of stuff actually matters. It sounds like Michigan to Michiganders. I also think that we have decided that anybody that is kind of like, I've done the work and I'm a striver and I'm try hard, that that is cringe. Like people. People on the Internet have decided that that that is cringe. I think that people who are looking for actual results locally don't think it's cringe. They kind of like the idea of somebody who is a workhorse for their values. And I think that they actually find Abdul El Sayad's sort of nationalized stardom to be off putting, which is a. Which is something that happens in local races all the time, where the person getting a lot of national attention, the local people kind of turn and say, this is actually not that dissimilar from the Graham Platner stuff. Right. I actually think Graham Platner was helped by the sort of national backlash against him because Mainers were like, you're not going to make this decision for us. And so, yeah, I don't. I. I don't know if you've seen other interviews with her, but I, I do think we also have a tendency for people to take one clip and decide that that is the whole of a person, like that is now. And. And her opponents have tried very hard to make her cringe, to make it seem like she is super lame. Like, people don't feel that way in Michigan now. And I'll say, I. We just did a focus group in Michigan. I would say it. It was leaning slightly more toward Abdul El Sayed. But this is again, and this has happened a bunch. It has happened in Texas with Talrico and Jasmine Crockett, where nationally they're super vicious, super pitted against each other. The voters think, look at these two great candidates I've got to choose from, which is sort of how the folks in Michigan were, where they really respect Haley Stevens, but maybe think the people who were pro El said were much more like, ah, but I think we need someone new. And I think maybe he might, you know, be able to fight Trump better, because I, you know, I agree with him on xyz. But also, there were, like. It was. It wasn't totally split. There was, like, one more person for Al Saya than there was for Haley Stevens, but it wasn't a foregone conclusion.

[Will Sommer]

Well, yeah, I mean, look, I'm glad we got a gut check on the Michigan accent. You know, I spent a little bit of time when I was younger in Wisconsin and Michigan. I didn't remember it being kind of like a grizzled prospector accent like that, to be clear.

[JVL]

I don't think it's just the accent here that's the problem.

[Will Sommer]

It's the Michigan way. Yeah, I mean, it's. You know, obviously there have been some questions about, you know, whether is this gonna do people like that she's a bit of a character, you know. You know, it's very possible.

[Sarah Longwell]

I've met her, and I just think, like, she's a goofball, and can I just. I have again, because I'm always kicking around pieces. I've got one that I want to do where it's like, what do we mean when we talk about authenticity? Because the fact is, she's got a little bit of that, like, Tracy Flick energy, you know, but, like. Like, is that. That is authentic to her. Like, she is a goofy person. That's her personality, and that's coming out. And so I think for people who are seeing not just that clip, but either her in person or lots of other clips of her who are kind of inundated with her, they see a more total picture than the Internet does in. In people who are just national political observers that I think layers up to somebody who likes, really wants to work hard and is kind of a goofball and is, like, laughing a lot when she's doing and talking about things. And I think that people, like, that's as authentic as anything else.

[JVL]

Maybe it all works in the way that. Who's like, the HBO actor. He's famous for the meme where he's the hot dog. He's wearing the hot dog suit.

[Will Sommer]

Oh, Tim Robinson.

[JVL]

Tim Robinson. That's sort of like cringe comedy, you know, where it's all, like, very awkward. The comedy of awkwardness. Maybe that works for her in ways that I just don't understand, but it is. She's like the antimatter version of Gavin Newsom, right? Like somebody who's like, so. So. Or Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris, right? These people are so polished and charismatic, like in very real ways. I think, you know, if you've ever been in a room where with people at that level, you're like, oh, I see why they can get people to vote for them, right? Haley Stevens is just like, she's just. Whatever pheromones she putting out are different than the Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton pheromones of a politician. I don't know how else to say it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, so we talked. You. We talked about Haley Stevens, but let's talk about the rest of it.

[JVL]

That's what I wanted to ask. Talk to me about El well, actually,

[Sarah Longwell]

I want to talk about the race overall right now. Now that, now that Platner's out, I think that Michigan probably becomes the race that we all start watching, right. And. And we will all watch Maine, but we're gonna wait for Troy Jackson to get his footing and understand who he is and how is he different from Platinum. How's that race shaping up? That's all brand new, but this is a well worn race where now that McMorrow has been out for a little bit, the sides are really like sizing each other up. It's getting very nasty. Lauren Egan has a great p. The race, but this is going to become the race where if El Sayed wins and loses the general election to the Republican, it will become the talking point against the sort of far left insurgency. The. The candidates who are running unabashedly pro Palestine who are kind of in the Hassan piker camp. If he loses, if he wins, it will be seen as like the reason why that is that that works now. Right? Like the conventional wisdom will be. See, see how else I add one. And in a lot of ways it will. What will it will all like. There will be so many other things in there. Like what does the environment actually look like on election day? How big is the blue wave? Could anybody win that race? Or actually, was it really tough to win? Would somebody have won by more? But this is going to be. And like Haley Stevens, same thing, right? If she prevails and then wins, there's going to be like, see, this is what you need in these swing states.

[JVL]

Look at Haley Stevens and Roy Cooper, right? You can just run boring people.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. And so I think for the factional fight that currently exists, which will have enormous implications for what the conventional wisdom is around what Democrats need to win, what kind of candidate needs to emerge for 2028. This race is becoming like very important because it's such a clear breakdown of the two different parts of the faction with two pretty clear standard bearers for their, their side. Kind of like, yeah, like a boring ish. Like I'm here for the policy, I'm doing the work, but I'm not, you know, I'm not getting involved in all these national things. And, and then the like, much more dsa, much more talking about, about Israel, Palestine, Medicare for all. You know, the, that, that dichotomy. This is like this is going to be the race. How this goes is going to dictate a lot of how we think about 2028.

[JVL]

Well, what do you think of El Said? Just sort of horse flesh talents as a politician? Because I think he, to me he seems pretty impressive along that stuff.

[Will Sommer]

I think so too. I mean, you know, it struck me he kind of got on my radar when he did a YouTube YouTube workout with Dr. Mike Israel, who's a famous YouTube workout guy. And I thought, okay, this guy might know what's up. He might know how to meet, how to reach. He's very popular by the way, with Sarah's Longwell, the Gen Z guys on her team. And so, you know, I thought, you know, that's a clever way to go with it. You know, I, I think to Sarah's point, I think we're seeing this kind of growing backlash against DSA after the New York incumbents got knocked off, whether within the Democratic Party, but also I think as a boogeyman for the Trump administration to use the State Department just put out this crazy article or this report on, you know, DSA is in league with Cuba and all this stuff. So I think that all of that is really going to put a lot more spotlight on this race and really make, you know, I feel like the Democratic establishment has sort of woken up. We just, there's this Atlantic article that's like, we gotta take out the DSA from the Democratic Party root and branch and all this stuff. So I think all that energy is going to settle on this race.

[Sarah Longwell]

Another part of this that's going to be really fascinating to watch is can you put it back together after the primary? Right. Because part of what we're seeing happen in Texas is that Jasmine Crockett has had no interest in helping James Talrico and as a result it's kind of hurting him a little bit with black voters in Texas. It's certainly not helping him. Right. Like, part of what would be helpful and is always helpful and I'm just going to go back. A big part of like the thing that I say in, in the book is that if you want to build a community, you've got to be a community. And this is why primaries can be so difficult. But when they turn into these blood feuds where people are so angry at each other that they won't kind of come back together and try to put the coalition together, that is when Democrats lose. And I think in Michigan you're seeing the same kind of blood feud taking shape that when it's all said and done, if Haley Stevens wins, does El Sayed do the sort of like non committal types that many, like partially part of that group, like, refused to come out for Kamala Harris? And do they sort of take their ball and go home and vice versa? Right? Do the, the more moderate folks say, I'm not voting for El Sayed, they ran a dirty campaign. You know, like, is it so broken that, like, there's no way to sort of put this community back together? Because that can really, that can undermine. And look, then there's all these like, side stories too for this, which is, you know, Hassan Piker right now, who's out there saying, Mao Zedong was one of the greatest leaders of all time despite the fact that he killed I don't know how many millions of people. And, and like, does campaigning with somebody like Piker, is it seen as helpful? Does it energize younger voters? Or do people say this is very extreme? I actually think this is insane. You know, you don't. This is, this, this is the race where all of that stuff is going to play out and it's going to be fascinating to watch. Look, I was a McMorrow person. I'll take Stevens if I got to choose, but I'm not sure that I think she's going to win. Like, listening to the voters and just listening in general to how much voters are doing kind of like barbaric yawp in their votes instead of saying, like, who do I think can win? And like, my pragmatism's kicking in or who do I think is going to work on this or that? They're like, no, I want somebody who's going to annihilate everybody I hate and I want to send this guy because the establishment hates this guy and I hate the establishment. They've been screwing everything up. You know, like, that is, I don't know.

[JVL]

I would just caution people observing this stuff. A lot of times people know what they think and then they're just Hoping for results to. To support their position on that. I. I would say one of the things we do here frequently, the bullet. We're not sure, like, what the right answer is on this. And the elections are going to give us a lot of clarity.

[Will Sommer]

Right.

[JVL]

The elections are going to provide us a bunch of data points to see, well, I don't know, like, does this thing work or does this other thing work better? And so we will see, you know, just as.

[Sarah Longwell]

Just as a. This really quickly. You did get to miss sort of the platinum dropout fallout discourse from that.

[JVL]

I wrote a big piece about that.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know you did. I'm just saying, like, you got to sit it out in real time. But one of the pieces that was going around a ton was Tim's piece in which he was like, like laying out a bunch of different kinds of candidates. And his whole point and it get kept getting thrown around, like, see, you endorsed Platner. The point of that piece was that, hey, we're at this sort of moment of political recalibration where there's all of these new political alliances, new issues, new appetites for younger candidates, different candidates. There's a lot of rage. And his point was, was try different things. That was his point. His point was, they're gonna have to try all this different stuff. It was not like an endorsement of Platner. It was an endorsement of a strategy that says, like, see what voters want in different places and see what works. And. And I thought, like, that was a very good faith piece about sort of figuring out how you take the next step. It's. Again, I. I personally disagreed with the platter stuff, but like I said, I didn't disagree with Tim's piece analyzing, like, what we do to figure out what the best way is forward.

[JVL]

Well, I'll do the thing now where I just lob a grenade in while we close the door. And I am curious. One of the things I'm curious about is on the question of, say, campaigning with Hasan Piker, which actually was the moment that El Said's candidacy really took off. It used to be that if somebody was on your side, but they were distasteful for some reason, you might not outright reject them, but you wouldn't campaign with them because that could hurt you more than it could help you.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

I wonder if we live in a world now where it's actually the opposite, and campaigning with somebody who has a very niche appeal but is distasteful can help you because they have a real niche that they can deliver but doesn't actually hurt you because nobody gives a shit anymore. And that, you know, like, well, Donald Trump was having dinner with Nick Fuentes and Kanye, right? And so he was able to add the groipers to his coalition and then nobody, nobody really cared on the outside. And maybe it turns out that it is smart politicking to campaign with Hasan Piker because vote, vote. There aren't actually a meaningful number of voters on the other side who are going to say that's disqualifying. I don't like that. Now I would not be thrilled to live in that world because I, I feel like these things should matter, but should and deserves got nothing to do with it. And maybe we're going to learn that that world and those old conventions no longer really work. At least in some places, at some times. I don't know, we'll all find out. It'll be great.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh wait, we want to talk about this. You're not gonna let us have five minutes of conversation about this?

[JVL]

I thought I was just gonna do my thing where I told people to fight about it in the comments on the way out, but if you'd like and that you and I could discuss this on the secret show on Friday. But if you'd like to have your say right now, Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I see Will wants to go and then. Sure.

[Will Sommer]

I mean, I think you're, you're onto something here. Jbl.

[JVL]

I mean, I think maybe I'm just talking. I'm not.

[Will Sommer]

Well, when it comes to figures like Hasan Piker obviously has a large and engaged audience, but like is not a household name. Like my mom would not know who Hassan Piker is. I think there's this advantage in which, which, you know, you bring that audience in. The average person. Even if you say this guy said Mao is cool or whatever they're gonna say, I don't really know who that is. I wonder if you're taking that out of context. And also I think there's this built in assumption now that in this like online media environment, people are just, it's like, yeah, this guy's streaming eight hours a day. He probably said some crazy stuff. And I think people, as you said, I think in the Trump era a lot of that gets discounted anyways. Like really what matters besides beating my enemies?

[Sarah Longwell]

And I was gonna say jbl, I think part of the phenomenon that you're describing is the way that the attention economy works, which is sort from, from. So if you're a guy like El Sayed who's like kind of getting lost in the shuffle between McMorrow, who was the early kind of star, and you're like, all right, people who won't like this guy won't know who he is, and people who do like him. It will help me, like, get on the board here. You can see how that's an attention economy play, and that's what a lot of people do these days. And then it can kind of take on a life of its own, like, I bet. But now, as we get closer to the election or certainly in the general, I don't think he'll campaign with Hasan Biker. But in terms of getting someone to pay attention to him at a time when he wasn't, that worked. And it. And it works because people are so polarized that they immediately jump to, well, if Third way hates him and I hate the establishment in Third Way, I'm going to like him and vice versa. And like, people kind of of line up quickly with their sides.

[JVL]

Yeah. My point is just that nobody really understands what the rules are anymore. And so to the extent that these test cases can help us understand what voters think the rules are, that's useful for analyzing things going forward. All right, guys, good show. Long show. Will, thank you for sitting in for Tim. We greatly appreciated it. Sarah, it was good to be with you, my friend. Everybody else, tell me how wrong I am about all the things down in the comments. I always enjoy that. Hit, like hit. Subscribe. Follow the feed. We'll be back soon with more takes about how awesome everything is going in this golden age of America. Good luck, America.