AAAAHHHHH!

Summary

Podcast Summary: "AAAAHHHHH!" from The Next Level

Episode Information

• Title: AAAAHHHHH!
• Host/Authors: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last (JVL) of The Bulwark
• Release Date: October 9, 2024
• Description: In this episode, the hosts delve into the latest political developments, focusing on Donald Trump's interactions with Vladimir Putin, the shifting dynamics within the Republican electorate, and the strategic maneuvers in upcoming elections. Additionally, they touch upon Kamala Harris's media strategy and the proliferation of conspiracy theories within the MAGA movement.

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1. Bob Woodward’s Revelations on Trump-Putin Relations

[01:39] JVL:
"Yesterday, Bob Woodward did it again, dropped some new reporting about Donald Trump and his big, beautiful relationship with Vladimir Putin."

Key Points:

• Shadow Diplomacy: The hosts discuss Woodward's revelations about Trump's private conversations with Putin, characterizing them as "shadow diplomacy."
• Legality and Ethics: Sarah Longwell raises concerns about the legality of these interactions, questioning if Trump's actions border on espionage.

Notable Quote:
Sarah Longwell [02:31]:
"I think the idea that Donald Trump has been conducting shadow diplomacy as a fake president with our greatest geopolitical enemy is bad."

2. The Controversy Over COVID Test Shipments to Russia

[04:45] Sarah Longwell:
"Trump was taking the tests not for Melania's mom or something, but, like, for Putin."

Discussion Points:

• Ethical Breach: The shipment of COVID tests to Putin during the pandemic is highlighted as a significant ethical lapse.
• Public Trust: The act undermines public trust, especially given the context of the pandemic and the dire need for tests in the U.S.

3. Impact of Trump's Actions on Republican Voters

[09:05] JVL:
"They are actively attacking a Democratic ally during the time of these conversations."

Insights:

• Voter Defection: Polls suggest that up to 9% of Republican-leaning voters might defect to Kamala Harris, influenced by Trump's actions.
• Focus Groups: Sarah discusses focus group findings indicating that while some voters are disillusioned with Trump, others remain steadfast despite his controversial moves.

Notable Quote:
Sarah Longwell [14:00]:
"...we are doubling down in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Like that is where she's doing the best."

4. Polling Data and Electoral Strategies

[07:48] JVL:
"He was doing this at the same time that he was telling Americans, it's not that bad."

Discussion Points:

• Contradictory Messaging: Trump's private reassurances to Putin starkly contrast his public downplaying of the pandemic.
• Strategic Focus: The Harris campaign is strategically targeting the 9% of Republican voters likely to defect, focusing resources on swing states.

Notable Quote:
Tim Miller [14:00]:
"...it's clear that they strategically think this group matters. I agree. I think the area for growth for them."

5. Senate Races and State-Level Dynamics

[29:23] Sarah Longwell:
"In Nevada, people talked about COVID more than I've heard any than people talk about COVID in a long time."

Key Points:

• Arizona Senate Race: Kerry Lake's poor performance contrasted with Ruben Gallego's strong showing, indicating voter sentiment.
• North Carolina's Shift: The upcoming hurricanes and their impact on voter perceptions in North Carolina could be pivotal.

Insights:

• State-Specific Issues: Economic factors, housing prices, and the influx of Californians into Nevada significantly influence voter behavior.
• Focus on Local Issues: Sarah emphasizes the importance of state-level differences in shaping electoral outcomes.

6. COVID-19's Legacy on Elections

[26:41] Tim Miller:
"I think that it's very clear that it hurt Trump in 2020, but less like the actual policies hurt Trump."

Discussion Points:

• Mixed Impact: COVID-19 had a dual effect; it tarnished Trump's image due to perceived mishandling but also solidified his base by energizing non-traditional voters.
• Long-Term Effects: The pandemic's aftermath continues to influence voter opinions, particularly regarding public health and economic policies.

Notable Quote:
Tim Miller [27:39]:
"I do think in retrospect, it's helping Republicans now. I mean, on the margins."

7. Kamala Harris’s Media Strategy and Public Perception

[42:06] Sarah Longwell:
"When I listen...she was great in Howard Stern."

Key Points:

• Media Appearances: Kamala Harris's engagement with diverse media platforms, including unconventional ones like Howard Stern, to reach broader audiences.
• Public Reception: The hosts commend Harris's natural demeanor in interviews, despite occasional missteps.

Insights:

• Strategic Outreach: Sarah highlights the importance of Harris diversifying her media presence to connect with varied voter demographics.
• Consolidation of Support: Despite some negative perceptions, Harris has effectively consolidated Democratic voters while attracting a segment of disillusioned Republicans.

Notable Quote:
Tim Miller [43:57]:
"She’s good and she’s natural in these settings."

8. Proliferation of Conspiracy Theories Among MAGA Supporters

[45:36] Tim Miller:
"Chuck Edwards put this out with his press release...Rallied against Hurricane Helene being geoengineered."

Discussion Points:

• Geoengineering Myths: The episode addresses bizarre conspiracy theories circulating within the MAGA community, such as hurricanes being artificially created for ulterior motives.
• Political Ramifications: These theories exacerbate the polarization and hinder productive discourse, posing challenges for political dialogue.

Notable Quote:
JVL [46:59]:
"Think about the amount of calls he must have gotten from people who believe this to merit number one."

9. State of the Republican Party and Future Outlook

[53:17] Tim Miller:
"A universe, probably at minimum control of one chamber of Congress next year."

Key Points:

• Party Division: The Republican Party is grappling with internal conflicts between traditional conservatives and MAGA-aligned extremists.
• Sustainability Issues: The hosts express concerns about the long-term sustainability of the party's current trajectory, emphasizing the need for leadership and strategic realignment.

Insights:

• Leadership Challenges: The episode underscores the necessity for Republican leaders to address and rectify internal divisions to remain relevant and effective.
• Democratic Resilience: Sarah Longwell highlights the importance of defending democratic norms and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power, referencing historical perspectives on leadership.

Notable Quote:
Sarah Longwell [53:46]:
"They can't. It's just like us."

10. Preparing for High-Stakes Interviews and Future Engagements

[54:35] Tim Miller:
"...conversation with one of the good Republicans. Representative Dan Crenshaw."

Discussion Points:

• Interview Strategies: The hosts share strategies for conducting interviews with influential Republicans like Dan Crenshaw, focusing on maintaining composure and effectively challenging opposing viewpoints.
• Emotional Management: Emphasis on controlling emotions during interviews to ensure clear and impactful communication.

Notable Quote:
Sarah Longwell [55:51]:
"...tell me, Congressman, how do you stay so relaxed in the face of this takeover of the Republican Party by this maniac?"

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Conclusion

In this episode of The Next Level, Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last dissect pressing political issues shaping the 2024 landscape. From the controversial Trump-Putin interactions and their implications on the Republican electorate to Kamala Harris's strategic media engagements and the unsettling rise of conspiracy theories within the MAGA movement, the hosts provide a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted challenges facing American politics. Their discussions underscore the urgency for strategic electoral campaigns, the need for unity within political parties, and the critical role of leadership in navigating the nation's future.

Remember: For those interested in staying informed and understanding the intricate dynamics of American politics, The Next Level offers insightful commentary grounded in thorough analysis and informed debate.

Transcript

[JVL]

Guys, it's happening. We're doing a big swing state tour through the. I mean, it's three days. We're coming next week to Philly, Pittsburgh and Detroit. There'll be the three of us, plus basically not the whole cast of the Bulwark, but a ton of our Bulwark friends. We're going to be having a great time. We're doing shows. Get your tickets now, Tim, Sarah, tell the people.

[Tim Miller]

Never Trump friends are welcome. Of course we're going to have, you know, George Conway local Never Trumpers. You know, kind of reminding that 9% out there that we got to make it 9% that votes for Kamala Harris of sitting Republicans. But we're going to have fun. I can't wait to get out on the bus, get some sheets.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. You know, when people are, when you, when you have anxiety like this, right. When you're this close to the election, it's going to make us all feel better to be together. Right? We're going to our Republican voters against Trump. We're getting on a bus. We're going to do a bus tour. We're traveling around Pennsylvan. And so we're gonna stop there at the Bulwark events and we'll interview some of the Republican voters against Trump. We'll have, yeah, a lot of special guests, a lot of surprise guests. Gonna be super fun. Come hang out. Let's all be together. Let's do this thing together. Bring it home.

[Tim Miller]

I've never been to Detroit. I've been to, like, almost every big city in America except for Detroit. It's so weird. I never been to the airport, but I've never actually been to Detroit.

[JVL]

Detroit, Detroit, Rock City. You're gonna love go to thebullwark.com events. That's thebullwerk.com events. We'll also put a link to it in the bottom here. Guys, we'll see you there. The only way through this. Together.

[Tim Miller]

Let's do it.

[JVL]

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the next level. I'm JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark Guys. Yesterday, Bob Woodward did it again, dropped some. Some new reporting about Donald Trump and his big, beautiful relationship with Vladimir Putin. I can't tell whether I think the COVID tests sent to Russia, to Russia with love for Vlad during the height of the pandemic is the best because Vlad couldn't trust his own Covid tests, or if it's the fact that since leaving the White House, the former President of the United States has had a number of private conversations with the Russian dictator. Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's the latter. The latter.

[Tim Miller]

The former was worse for me. So make the pitch, Sarah. Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think the idea that Donald Trump has been conducting shadow diplomacy as a fake president with our greatest geopolitical enemy is bad. And the fact that he gave him Covid tests, I think is like a short term outrage thing. Right. Like it. Also, I gotta say that part of it is that and some of this we'll talk about the focus groups I was just doing in Nevada. I think that bringing up Covid is just not a great. I don't think anybody wants to go back.

[JVL]

Strategy. Yes. But I mean, as a matter of actual personal moral outrage, I still think it is.

[Sarah Longwell]

I can't. I think if I was going to get mad about something. Right. The COVID tests are looking backwards. Even just forget strategically, the Trump's relationship with Putin and the fact that he has been. Yeah. Conducting fake diplomacy. And it's not diplomacy. They're just buddies. They're just dictator buddies.

[JVL]

If it was fake diplomacy, it would actually be better.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

That doesn't appear to be right.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's like a nice term. It's just like him. Yeah. It's like, I don't know, he's probably giving him the nuclear secrets he was holding in his bathroom.

[JVL]

It's. It's unbelievable. Tim.

[Sarah Longwell]

Why would the COVID test be worse? Tim?

[Tim Miller]

I guess it just angers me more. The idea that Trump and Putin are talking is also an outrage you make. You made a very compelling point that the former president should not be doing shadow diplomacy with our greatest geopolitical phobia. Also one that is like, that is actively attacking a Democratic ally during the time of these conversations. Maybe if you told me, like maybe if you told me if it was Marco Rubio or somebody like that or another guy we'll be talking about at the end. If it was Dan Crenshaw that was having shadow conversations with Vladimir Putin and the possibility was that he might be saying, vlad, let's dial it back. Like, let's push it back. I'm about to give the green light to Biden to really start lighting you up with some new weapon. That would still be bad and illegal, I think.

[Sarah Longwell]

But they're active office holders, unlike Donald Trump.

[Tim Miller]

But that is not what is happening here. Donald Trump and Putin, the calls are not him trying to encourage Putin to do the right thing or dissuade, ask.

[JVL]

His aides to leave the room so he can talk to Vlad in private.

[Tim Miller]

And the other thing Is like, the lack of pushback on this point. Like, Jason Miller's pushback in the article is like, well, I don't. I can't verify or deny. It's like, what. And you know that some aid was like, up to seven. We also don't really know. Seven was just the number that some aide threw out. There could be, could be more, could be less. Like, we just. Like Trump is just doing rogue diplomacy with Putin again.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know I introduced the word diplomacy, but JVL's pointed out we should not call it diplomacy because that's not what it is. It's like, uh, it's. It's. It's a complete fake and probably. Is it legal? Because Trump's just like a citizen now who used to have full security clearance.

[JVL]

Jimmy Carter used to do shadow diplomacy where he would, like, fly to some hot spot and talk, you know, basically unauthorized by the current president and try to, like, you know, move the peace process along out of the goodness of his heart.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's not what this is espionage, maybe.

[JVL]

This is basically espionage.

[Tim Miller]

And who knows what the money? Is there money associated with it? Like, there's just all of these questions and possibilities. You just don't know. Or is it just like Trump just likes calling him because he just needs a little ego hit because he loves Pootie so much. He loves the strong. He wants the big tough guy to be like, oh, Donald, you're doing so great. We're gonna get you back in there. Who the hell knows? Who the hell knows what they could be talking about? But the COVID thing is just, for me, just more viscerally angry because of, like, thinking about the context of the moment where this was happening. Like, there was a lot of uncertainty still. Right? It's not now. It's then. I know nobody wants to go back and put your head in that place, but it's like there was uncertainty about how bad it was, how much worse it was going to get and how many people were dying, whether we had enough tests, whether we had enough ppe. All of this stuff was actively happening. And it was a massive scandal for politicians who were taking tests and PPE and giving them friends and family. This was a scandal that waylayed, I was gonna say Mark Lasry, his kid, Alex Lasry in the Wisconsin Senate race. There are other examples of this. Trump was taking the tests not for Melania's mom or something, but, like, for Putin. He's sending the test to Putin to, like, what, suck up to him at a moment where it sounds like What? Not like two tests are the difference between life and death with people. But just like, as a principle of the matter, like, given the place that we are in, it is just. It is without. You can't even think about a scandal of another president. You know, it's like we're going back to Iran Contra. Right. It's just like, what are you doing? Like, you're cutting a backroom deal with the bad guys during a deadly virus. Like what?

[JVL]

He was doing this at the same time that he was telling Americans, it's not that bad. The virus is no big deal.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

And that, you know, inject. You inject yourself with some bleach or bleach, or you take some of the ivermectin, go right away, and it'll just, you know, you shine the lights on the, the abdomen and that just makes it all go away. And do you remember, do you remember when he was like, I don't even think we should be doing more testing because I like the numbers where they are. Right. If you don't test, you don't have any case. He's spinning all of this stuff for the actual citizens of America. But when it comes to his dictator friend. No, I know this stuff's bad. Yeah. Here you go.

[Tim Miller]

We want to make sure to keep you there. Also, by the way, just as a side point, the American president wants Putin to die. Just as a side point should want Putin. If the options are Putin dies of COVID or we send him tests to keep him alive. I don't, I'm not saying that we should have poisoned the COVID test, but I'm just saying that, like, on balance.

[Sarah Longwell]

The dictator who is, like, waging war on Democratic allies.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

It feels like our national interest.

[Sarah Longwell]

It feels, it feels like we don't need to help him stay healthy one way or another.

[JVL]

Yeah. It is against, against America's national interests.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's how that I want to, I.

[JVL]

Want to push back on one thing, though. Yeah, go ahead.

[Sarah Longwell]

I just, I want to just say I think we're, I do think by splitting these up as, like, which one's worse, we're making a fundamental mistake. Because it's actually not about. It's, it's about both of these things and the fact that, that we know this and AID leaked this to Bob Woodward, one of Trump's aide. That's the only way this gets out there is that a Trump aide was so concerned because both of these things, they're, they're, they're part of the issue.

[Tim Miller]

I'm Going to say, this could be Veep, not House of Cards. Or this could be Veep, not West Wing. I would say so reckless and careless. Like he was bragging to Woodward or didn't realize that. I just want to throw that out there. Not that maybe he was like throwing a flag. Yeah. Not it was he was throwing a flag on the boss. But that he was bragging about it. Anyway. I just, we don't know. I just.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know what, it's a great point, but I guess the overall is just in totality, we understand a lot more about Trump's relationship with Putin, how close it is, how much they're back channeling. And that's why, you know, I go back to this moment where Putin endorsed Kamala Harris and how much it like, reads like sort of a dumb joke between the two of them. Or like, well, like a strategy. Right. Like, oh, I'm going to endorse Harris, throw him off the scent that we're great best pals. It is just he is good friends. Slash, like, wants to, wants to cuddle up with. Yeah. Or like somebody who is actively attacking and like in a hot war. This is insane. We are under reacting, we're underreacting to how crazy this is.

[Tim Miller]

And I also want to throw to our neocon friends who keep falling back on the Iran side of this. It's like, because there's some legit criticisms about how the Obama and Biden administration handled Iran and coddled Iran. And Kamala gives this answer on 60 Minutes, which is like, cut. Which is like the most interesting thing she said about how Iran might be our biggest foe right now. And all of the, our friends in the Wall Street Journal commentary world is like, are very upset about this. And again, there were some legitimate criticisms about how they handled Iran. But like, Putin is funding Iran. Putin is funding Iran, is selling them.

[JVL]

Drones hand over fist and yeah, giving weapons.

[Tim Miller]

You can't have both of these things. You can't be like, the Democrats are really weak on Iran. Trump is really strong on Iran. But also Trump is back channeling and doing buddy, buddy and doing everything possible to prop up the regime that is weaponizing and funding Iran. Like, it doesn't like that. They want to. They just want to elide that. Like, that's not a real thing.

[JVL]

I. Very quickly, before we move on, yesterday, in your little YouTube reaction video about this, Tim.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Sam said something that immediately made me say, no, no, that's wrong. Sam said, can you imagine, can you imagine if people had found out about this in real time? The Outrage. And it would have been this enormous scandal. And I just think. Sure. For a day like this is. I just think that this is a sign of how normalized we are that even these stories about that came out in Woodward. They'll be gone in 36 hours. Nobody's going to remember them. And we are so desensitized to everything that I. I submit to you that even if this stuff had come out absolutely contemporaneously, like as the plane lands in Moscow, we find out from, you know, the New York Times or the Washington Post that Trump has just done this, it wouldn't have hurt him. It would have been, you know, just 24 hours of. And then it would. We'd all move on to the next thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

We actually know that this is true. Because I don't know if you recall this, but Trump shipped a ton of PPE to China.

[JVL]

I remember that. Yeah, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

And it. Yeah, it was a bit of a scandal for like half a second. I remember because we remember us putting it in ads, trying to make it stick. And it was just one of those things where, like nailing jello to a wall. This guy.

[Tim Miller]

Because it's so much depressing part. I talked to Carville about this today as it is, even today. You couldn't even in good conscience tell the Harris campaign it would be a good strategic move to really focus on this. Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

No.

[JVL]

No. All right, so we got some polling out of the New York Times yesterday which suggested that up to 9% of Republican ish voters are going to defect to Kamala Harris. What do you guys make of this and of all of it. And Sarah, you had some focus group stuff you wanted to talk about.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Before I get to Sarah's focus group, can I just weigh in? Because Sarah's doing the RVAT work, so I'm interested in her. Take my short answer to this is David Plouffe is not an idiot. And the Kamala Harris team is very focused on talking to this 3%. This 9%. I called it 3% because Biden got 6. She wants more. And so it's real. Like, it's not a fake thing. They wouldn't be having events with Liz Cheney. They wouldn't be putting resources into the ads. They wouldn't. Kamala wouldn't be talking about Iran as our biggest threat. Honestly, it is clear that they strategically think this group matters. I agree. I think it's the area for growth for them. And I thought the Times poll, who knows? But it offered a very plausible global view of what was happening with the electorate where she is just doing even better than Biden among these high educated older former Republican types, she's losing ground with more working class types, particularly Hispanics and particularly particularly Cuban Hispanics is why you see the number in Florida being so bad number in Pennsylvania. Good. There's another poll from Susquehanna today that has that House race where Scott Perry is Scott Perry losing, you know, and that's kind of into Sarah's territory of Pennsylvania getting out of the suburbs, even into the ex suburbs. So to me that is kind of where the race is and they know it and it'.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I was thrilled to see this number because Tim points out like we've got kind of a 6% threshold is like we know that 6% is where you get enough of these sort of center right soft GOP voters to tip in a state like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and if we can get to 9 or 10 and to Tim's point, in that Scott Perry district in that Susquehanna poll, you know, and even looking at like Kamala Harris is drawing like 92 or 94% of all the Democratic votes, it might even be 96%. Like she has consolidated Trump's at like 80. Right. Which means and obviously I run a group called Republican Voters Against Trump that is basically focused only on this how do you peel off these voters? And what's interesting, what we have sort of decided so it's not an academic exercise for us. It's a like it's a real political exercise of where do you put money? And like we are doubling down in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Like that is where she's doing the best. I am actually I'd be interested just real quick if anybody has takes on what they think the storm is going to do to North Carolina from a voting standpoint, like how that shifts things because I think it might change the ballgame for North Carolina, which really was sort of their, the campaign's fallback. Like it's their second path is built on North Carolina with Nevada. With Nevada. That's right. Which I got to say I just came back from there and did a bunch of swing voting groups and I would be more, I'm more worried about Nevada than I am Michigan or Wisconsin, but obviously so going. But right now we are moving much more into the rural areas of Pennsylvania or the ex urban areas of Pennsylvania for two reasons. One, holding down. That's where Trump, you know, puts as JBL calls them, these Saddam Hussein type numbers. Right. And so can you hold them down at all? And number two, probably the way you're going to hold them down is with white working class women who are sort of surprisingly open to, to Kamala Harris after voting for Trump, in most cases twice, partially because of reproductive rights and partially because they still just think Trump is too much of a jerk. It's funny how much in the swing voting groups, even for people who are doing some backsliding towards Trump, how universally loathed he is. Right. And there are, I think, because I'll just say very quickly, in Nevada, uh, there was. The groups were very similar to swing voting groups we've been seeing just across the board and we're doing a ton right now. And in just about every group you get one or two people. So these are all people who voted for Trump in 16, Biden in 20. You'll get a couple people going back one or two. It's like never, it's not five ever, but it's always like one or two people. Sometimes you get a clean sweep for Harris, but not, not mostly. Uh, and I always think, ooh, that erosion. I don't like that at all. Um, because you need to hold that anti Trump coalition together. And if they're going back to Trump because people are going to ask, okay, why, why are they? It is always the economy. Uh, it is always the economy and, or immigration. Um, but mostly like they're fraught. They don't think that four years of Biden was good. And they are much. There's a reason that Trump wanted to seize on Kamala Harris's answer on the View about, oh, I don't really like, what would, what would I do differently than Joe Biden or what, or do I have any regrets or something. And she said no. And they really seized on that. Because the answer that people give for why they would go back to Trump is often they're not happy with Biden's four years and they think Kamala would be more of the same. And so Donald Trump knows that that's the, the, his team understands that the people who are coming back to him are people who are dissatisfied with the four years of Biden, primarily around the economy and immigration.

[JVL]

They really loved three years of Trump. They thought three years of Trump were fantastic.

[Sarah Longwell]

No.

[JVL]

And that it was amazing. Trump only had a three year term. That fourth year actually was with Biden.

[Sarah Longwell]

But they voted against, but they voted against Trump then. That's what's interesting about these voters. They voted for Biden. And I'll tell you another thing that I just, is an open question for me. I've got a Million open questions that make it hard to pinpoint this race. But in Nevada, people talked about COVID more than I've heard any than people talk about COVID in a long time. No one talks about COVID in the groups anymore. No one brings it up.

[Tim Miller]

It hurt Nevada a lot because of the casinos.

[JVL]

It did, yeah, because it's a tourist place. Sarah, can you dig into Nevada after a word from our sponsors? Kimmy.

[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

If I'm looking a little punchy today, it's because I am so jet lagged because I just got back from several days in Vegas actually, and then I had to go to California for a day and do another thing. But like I was in Vegas and we went and saw Garth Brooks.

[Tim Miller]

Wow.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You and Judy Woodruff saw Garth Brooks together?

[Sarah Longwell]

Me and Judy. Me and Judy did the focus groups together? No, my spouse and I went and saw Garth. I finally got, got her to come out there with me and hang out for a little bit. Won $5 at the $500 at the Blackjack table. Had a great time. Had a great time. But I am dragging today getting back on east coast times the worst. Anywho. So when I was out there I a few things jumped out at me about Nevada that makes it different. And I think when we do the polling, I think understanding state level differences is really important. So you know, I've been struggling a lot with what's happening in Arizona, for example, because Kerry Lake's on the ballot. She's terrible. She's been rejected a number of times. So Ruben Gallego has been polling way ahead of her. They're going to have an abortion ballot initiative. And yet Trump is still, it's almost his best state out of the former State Department. It's Hispanic men and I think, but also the border, it's just, it's a border state and I think understanding the how things happen in a border state. But the other thing that's happening in these west coast, what would it be? These west coast states like Nevada is they're getting a big influx of people from California. And so somebody in the focus group said they're bringing California prices but in Nevada they don't have like it's not like there's a new sector or industry that's coming that's pushing wages up. It's still the same tourism, hospitality, retail that has been the state's. And so like it's got an enormous service sector which is why the no taxes on tips is such a big deal. Like it's basically just a carve out policy for Nevada where tips are an enormous source of income for People. But if you have people coming in from California driving up housing prices and. Or cost of living in other ways that have made money in sectors where they can, you know, they've just got a lot more money. And you only have retail and hospitality, like, you are really feeling inflation. I mean, the economy was just so top of mind. And they really do start to continue to talk about COVID and how Covid was handled. And it got me thinking. And I just wanted to ask you guys a question. I have long been unsure about whether or not Covid was a. Whether it hurt Trump or whether it helped Trump, because I think that listening to these, the people who voted against Trump back in 2020 and are going back to him, one of their main drivers to vote against him was Covid. They just were like, I want out of this. This isn't going well. And like, they felt like he mishandled it, yet they sort of want him back in part because of how they think Joe Biden has handled the border and the economy and, like, there's no more Covid crisis. At the time, I also, I felt like people were. I felt like Covid could have actually hurt Democrats more than people realized because people were so frustrated. They were down on the lockdowns. They didn't want any more masking. They were over it. But also, there's no doubt that that was something that people, like, wanted to turn the page on. And so it may have ushered Trump out. Do you think the absence of COVID now, like I did, I think we forget that 2020 wasn't a normal election. It was, in Covid, tons of changes to how people were voting happened. I mean, there's a. There's. I think if you have to go back through 2021, 2022, and look at all the bills that were passed around voting, you have to kind of disaggregate ones that were simply returning it to its normal pandemic, which is not voter suppression versus attempts at actually locking down voting in new ways. But anyway, what do you guys think is Covid. How is that? Is there any impact?

[JVL]

Timothy?

[Tim Miller]

I think that it's very clear that it hurt Trump in 2020, but less like the actual policies hurt Trump. And just his just craziness. Yeah, like, you know, like his. The crazy. His crazy behavior at the press conferences and all that hurt him because most incumbents were helped by Covid around the world and Trump was like an outlier. But I think that as time has gone on and JBL's written about this, which is why I was deferring. It might be mass psychosis or whatever. But people now reflect back on Covid and they do not look at the dead as the thing that was mishandled. They look at the fact that whatever. They had to wear masks is the thing that was mishandled. And I do think it's hurting. It's helping Republicans now. I mean, on the margins. I don't think. It's obviously not the top issue in the election, but I do think in retrospect, it's helping Republicans among certain demo voters.

[JVL]

Yeah. I think it both hurt him and helped him, if that makes sense.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

You think it's a wash?

[JVL]

I think it's a wash.

[Sarah Longwell]

This is what I think. I think it's. I think it was probably a wash. Yeah.

[JVL]

I think it hurts him with a bunch of voters who would have wanted competent handling. But I think it helped him again, bringing out his non traditional. I mean, he increased his raw number of votes. Yeah. From 2016 to 2020.

[Sarah Longwell]

Just not his right share. Yeah.

[JVL]

And he, he was able to. The crazy behavior and all that helped him find new voters that he couldn't have found if he had just been a normal person handling a crisis. Because those are the types of people who show up for the black helicopters and stuff. Right. I mean, those are. He's finding. That was another funny Woodward finding some very fine people.

[Tim Miller]

That was another funny Woodward reveal. Was Lindsey Graham, like, trying to tell Trump being like the people who think the earth is flat and that I forgot what the other. We didn't land on the moon. You've got them.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay.

[Tim Miller]

You've already got those people. Like maybe start moving on to try to get to a different group. I enjoyed that hit from Lindsey Graham. Sarah, I had one more focus group question for you because the Arizona Senate number makes sense to me, actually. I just think it's very easy to understand why people would be for Ruben Gallego and Trump doesn't make sense to me personally, but I can imagine who that person is and what the demographic is. I can't possibly fathom why Jackie Rosen is winning by 12 points and Donald Trump is like. And the presidential race is tied. And so I don't know if you asked about the Senate race there.

[Sarah Longwell]

I did.

[Tim Miller]

I wonder if you have any insights into that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. So here's my biggest insight. And it actually was like something that really jumped out in both groups. I asked about the Senate race. I'm not sure people were like, I'm not following it. They had a million. Like they, they knew less about their local election than. Than they did about the national race. They had strong opinions. And so I was like. And there was sort of some anti. Like I'm not sure they could have told me the name. I think she's up by as much as she is on name id because they were. There was. I got.

[Tim Miller]

I had a full.2 full group of.

[Sarah Longwell]

People going, like, I gotta do some research. And they're on. I actually think it's going to end up being much closer.

[JVL]

As long as they go to the Internet to do their research, it'll all turn out fine.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I mean, it depends on what research, but yeah, it was an interesting. It was interesting. In the second group there was.

[JVL]

We are. This whole country is fucked. It doesn't matter what happens at this election in the long haul with these people.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know.

[JVL]

I'm sorry, Sebastian, cut that. That's all very bad.

[Sarah Longwell]

The groups, the groups were. It like there was. We keep them smaller for. Because we were taping for a TV show. So we had seven people and they, they both broke five. Two for Kamala Harris. Actually the. There. In the first group there was one guy who kind of. We couldn't pin down. So maybe was he in the 2 or the 5? He was in the 5, but then he kind of walked it back, was like, no, I can't, you know, decide. And. And then he. He kind of bounced around like he was one of these people who. He was listening to the pro Trump people talk and be like, you're making great points. And then he would listen to the anti Trump people talk and be like, you're making great points too. I really don't know what to do.

[JVL]

I mean, this is a hand grenade and this is an apple and I just can't.

[Sarah Longwell]

They both look so good.

[Tim Miller]

Can I tell you, there was someone you ate, though?

[Sarah Longwell]

There was a really smart guy in. In the second group.

[Tim Miller]

He was for Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, he was. And he was. He was Israeli. So he. He was like born in Israel. And there almost was. There's.

[Tim Miller]

Because I always want to take away his right to vote. But anyway, that's another. It's a side point.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I want to tell you what he said because this was pretty interesting to me as like a psychological coping mechanism. But he was like, actively. There was almost like a fight in the group over Israel and Hamas or Israel and Palestine, however, where one of the women talked about genocide and he got, you know, he was like, they. And. And they actually, they were totally civil, but I had to shut it down because like obviously we could have gone off the rails and just talked about that. But anyway, the thing that he said that was so interesting was he said I think Trump was really humbled by losing and that he'll be.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, okay, sorry, continue.

[JVL]

Was this a smart. Was this smart guy, Susan Collins in disguise?

[Sarah Longwell]

You know what's funny is that the.

[JVL]

Other guy, did he speak with a main accent?

[Sarah Longwell]

No, he spoke with a slight Israeli accent in fact. And he just, it's, it's like he had to tell himself in order to get there that Trump was a changed man. And he talked about the assassination attempt and losing the 2020 election. And this is one of the, one of those people that I would love to sit down and like really push on, but like can't in these, in this environment. And other people were, you know, going back and forth and, and there is when it's when the cameras are on a focus group as opposed to, I mean obviously we do them on Zoom lots of other times, but like they knew they're in a studio. So just everyone's on a certain behavior. Yeah. Including me. Right. Like, I'm just trying to give them space to say what I think. I'm not spending a lot of time. I don't fight with people ever. But sometimes I'll like poke around, you know, push back just to see like test people's theories on stuff. But anyway, I just, it was interesting to me. And this other, the other woman that was for him, she talked about how like she didn't. He was, he has temper tantrums and she hates that about him. You know, he'll be like a child. But then she was. And she really cared about reproductive rights. And there were a couple, one of the women in the group, there's another woman in the other group who was going to vote for him. And her number one issue was the environment.

[JVL]

Oh my God.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, it was like a very big issue for her. But then ultimately I think it was because of the economy. She was going to.

[JVL]

Because the economy is terrible right now.

[Tim Miller]

You have a cocktail?

[Sarah Longwell]

I, I did. I actually did push back a little bit. Cuz she did. This is. I'll. This is going to make JVL crazy. But it is an interesting jvl. It's an. That'll make you. But this will particularly make JBL a.

[Tim Miller]

Woman that thinks Donald Trump is a toddler and cares about reproductive rights, is planning on putting our democracy because she's voted.

[Sarah Longwell]

These are two different women. The, the environment was a different woman. But this, this this woman. And then I said. And then she was talking about the economy, but she was interesting. So at one point she said, she started saying how, like, the economy isn't good because everywhere she goes, they're understaffed and they, like, need. There's jobs everywhere that are unfilled. And I.

[JVL]

So that makes the economy not good.

[Sarah Longwell]

So I. I pushed back a little bit and I was like, well, isn't the fact that there are, you know, so many jobs available evidence that the economy is actually strong? And she was very much like, no, nobody's working in these jobs. And it. It. It just. It is a good example, I think, of how people perceive the economy in a way that has nothing to do with like. Like, they don't understand economic. Like, that's fine.

[Tim Miller]

I'm going to say it. Jp, he cut this earlier. We're fucked.

[JVL]

This country is fucked.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, my God. Can I tell you, while we're just doing this, the brief beside my focus group. You guys know I, like, watch TikTok at night because I can't sleep anymore. And the. I've become addicted to, like, SEC football tailgate TikToks where a guy goes around to these boys and they're like, who are you voting for, Trump or Kamala? And it's. And. And like, just the cheat, the cheer and the excitement and kind of just the lack of that devil may care element of the responses. Like, is is so notable to me. And one. One of my friends was texting me and who's a Democrat? And they're like, was it always like this? Like, you know, like in. Oh, you know, because they're like. Because I was sending this. This tick tock room. Like, was it always like this? And you know when you were in college with college Republicans, and I'm like, no. The answer is no. Like, I was the college Republican dork. I would go to visit my friends at LSU and Ole Miss and I would go to these tailgates and I would. One year I was at Ole Miss, it was an off year, so it was a governor's race, was Hailey Barber was running. And like, I was the one wearing the Hailey Barber button and sticker and trying to give it out to the sorority girls. And everybody was like, okay, yeah, I'm probably for Haley Barber, but like, please don't put your fucking sticker on me. You know what I mean? Like, it was not cool or in vogue. And anyway, I just like, that is an alarm.

[JVL]

You know why they're like this now, Tim? Because they, like, all of Stuff.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

That we hate.

[Tim Miller]

They like the cat eating stuff.

[JVL]

That's. I mean, and this is why, this is why this is the future of the Republican Party. Because the stuff that the good Republicans of the world tisk, tsk about is actually the secret sauce.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

For some. Not in these focus groups, I gotta say. Like, I think for Tim's people, like there was a guy like you would actually if you watched this group, there was like a dude, he was probably almost 70 or maybe he's just like, he may in his 60s and he's like. And he was a Republican. He identified as a Republican and he kind of sat there and he had this. He's like a kind of a grumbly way or whatever. And he was like he was going to vote for Kamala Harris and he just thought, he kept bringing up the pet eating and being like, this is horrible. Look what he's doing to these poor people. And so I actually, when I listen.

[JVL]

To these people, I tell him, sir, sir, calm down. Even the Ohio Governor Mike DeWine thinks it's not that bad and that he could still vote for Donald Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

I sure didn't. I sure didn't. I like doing these in person though, because you just get certain physic, physical things from people.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

That you don't get in the zoom focus groups. And like that guy was interesting to me because you could see how much he like was kind of an old school Republican. And it's why Kamala Harris continues like her best performing right now is these sort of college educated suburban voters. But it's also just like old white voters. The demographic that I was worried that she would fall with has actually been her strongest performing. Which is why I continue to be optimistic based on the fact that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska too are just filled with old white people. And they're the ones who just look at this stuff because they were responsible Republicans. It's why he's underperforming. It's why this 9% is there and am I. The people who Trump is getting in the focus groups are actually more like they're just, they're not very tapped in politically. They're not even particularly partisan Republicans. They're just mad at Joe. They blame Joe Biden for what they see. And they all talk at jbl. I again, I, I know I pushed back at some point. I talked about the macro economy being good. They like can't. Nobody can hear that when they can tell you they're like, grocery prices are just out of control and like housing prices are out of control and rent and. Well, they are. That is what they're experiencing, right, Is just prices that are. And if you live in a state where the prices have, you know, tripled for housing and you can't get from an apartment into a house or you can't, you know, can't. You're still living with three roommates like that is. That's what I hear over and over again. They're not the Floridians doing boat parades.

[JVL]

Okay, we gotta move on.

[Tim Miller]

Are they doordashing ever or are they cooking every day? Are they using HelloFresh?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes, Tim. This episode is sponsored by hello Fresh. With hello Fresh, you get farm fresh pre portioned ingredients and seasonal recipes delivered right to your doorstep. Make this fall the tastiest season yet with easy autumn inspired recipes delivered right to your door with HelloFresh. HelloFresh has tons of options for whatever you're craving. Choose from a changing menu of over 50 recipes each week. Plus take your pick from over 100 market. Add on items like desserts, breakfast and snacks. You can also choose meals that match you and your family's lifestyle with preferences like fit and wholesome, quick and easy or vegetarian. We're a quick and easy family. You'll always find something to love from HelloFresh. From hearty dinners to game day snacks, HelloFresh has a variety of recipes and flavors to perfectly accompany sweater weather. We're looking at you, pumpkin spice and did you know Green Chef is now owned by HelloFresh. And with a wider array of meal plans to choose from, there's something for everyone. I know in our family we love this because it makes everything, like I said, quick and easy. And when you've got kids and you got to work and you got to run the kids, to taekwondo or to this and to that, Brooks to Garth Brooks. When you've got hello Fresh it is just makes everything super easy. And also it allows me to contribute since I'm not the biggest. I myself am not a good green chef. So get 10 free [e-mail] free. The next level applied across seven boxes. New subscribers only. Varies by plan. That's 10 free HelloFresh meals just by going to hellofresh.com free. The Next Level. Sign up with America's number one meal kit today.

[Tim Miller]

All right.

[JVL]

We were going to talk about the Kamala Harris media blitz. Do we even need to. I did a thing on her Howard Stern thing yesterday. I thought the Howard Stern interview was sensational and the the best I've ever seen her I was super proud of.

[Tim Miller]

I personally did not watch that. I did consume Call Her Daddy and I did consume all the smoke and shout out to Bill Kristol just who really was ahead of the game with Call Her Daddy. Just kind of being in that original memo. Call Her Daddy game.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sorry, I was out of town. Is this joke real?

[Tim Miller]

No, it's a gag, Sam. It was an obvious gag in the newsletter that Bill Kristol was the original member of the Daddy Gang.

[JVL]

And yet that's not an obvious joke because you may recall that Bill Kristol is IRL friends with Fat Joe.

[Tim Miller]

That's true. Anyway, several, like a Washington examiner reporter and several right wing outlet influencers tweeted a screenshot to this thing to be like, this is how far the Never Trumpers have gone. Bill Kristol is a Daddy Gang member. They have no principles. They don't care about American cultural traditional values. Irving Kristol. I literally saw an Irving Crystal is rolling in his grave to this. It's like, people. People take a breath. It's a joke. Anyway, where was I? I watched both of those, and she was great in both those. I'm not surprised. She was great in Howard Stern. They should do a hundred of them. And like, the. Oh, my only complaint about all this is that everybody continues to talk about it as if it's like 2008 and there's a strategic question. Should she do Call Her Daddy? Should she do basketball podcasts? Obviously, she should do it. This is how you reach people. It's 2024. Like, just do it. I don't need everybody.

[JVL]

She's an attractive human being.

[Tim Miller]

She's good and she's natural in these settings.

[JVL]

People will like what she is, so they should just do more.

[Tim Miller]

Do all of the things. Yeah. Sometimes I'm like, I'm on the Internet or listening to another competitor podcast, and I feel like I'm back at the Glover Park Group and we're in a brainstorm about what we should do with our client and what interview is best aligned with their brand. And it's like, this is. Everybody doesn't need to be a PR specialist. You should just do all of them. More is more. Sarah knows. So that's my take on this. She's been great.

[Sarah Longwell]

And the fact that we're not going to pick apart the individual interviews is evidence of why you do lots of them. Because then suddenly people are just like, I don't know. She's doing lots of stuff. And like, as long as she's getting out of them without like saying we're going to, you know, bomb Iran. Like, you know, they mostly don't make news.

[Tim Miller]

She did have one bad answer on the View.

[Sarah Longwell]

Was it was the not distancing from Biden?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's. But it's not huge.

[JVL]

She had said she would have done something different. That also would have been a bad answer.

[Tim Miller]

No, it's easy. This is media training, Sarah and I know this. It's like, what would you have done differently than Biden? I don't. I reject your question. I'll talk about something I would do differently, prospectively. Like, for example, got a plan to build 3 million new homes. That's something that we would like to do different. You know, it's just like. Just have an answer. This is not that hard. But that's a nitpick. Sorry, Sarah, I interrupted you. Do you have any other thoughts on that? That I know? Did I steal your thunder?

[Sarah Longwell]

No, you're good.

[JVL]

All right. The latest turn for Maga and conservatism is hurricane conspiracy theory and weather controlling stuff, which we all laughed at two weeks ago. But I feel like two weeks from now will be totally mainstream in the Niagara, right?

[Tim Miller]

It's totally mainstream today.

[Sarah Longwell]

I have a question about the controlling the weather.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is it Jews that are controlling the weather or is it just Democrats? Sometimes I don't know who they is. I don't know who they is all the time.

[JVL]

Here's my question. Why is it that the MAGAs can't control the weather? Are they too cold?

[Sarah Longwell]

Great question.

[JVL]

Are they not smart enough to operate the weather control machine? Does it have too many numbers on the dials for them? I'm so sorry, Cletus. Maybe you should have gone to college because that's where we learn to control the weather.

[Tim Miller]

It's a great point, jbl. It's a great point. And it's not that hard actually, once you learn how to do it. I thought this one. Chuck Edwards put this out with his press release out. Have you read this? He's a Republican congressman from North Carolina. Very long press release debunking all of the shit. But the first line is just worth us talking about. He goes through all the things that are not true about the Hurricane Helene response. The first thing he debunks, Hurricane Helene was not all caps geoengineered by the government to seize and access lithium deposits in Chimney Rock. A Republican congressman. A Republican congressman thinks. But like, think about this. Think about this.

[JVL]

Think about, you know what, Sebastian? Leave my first thing in because we are fucked.

[Tim Miller]

Think about the amount of calls he must have gotten from people who believe this to merit number one.

[Sarah Longwell]

Number one merit.

[Tim Miller]

Having to debunk it. I mean, like, we are laughing, but, like. I mean, hundreds of people must believe this. Like, lots of people must. You know, there's this whole other universe out there of that none of us are even aware of. Like, I watch MAGA podcasts. I've never even heard of this before.

[JVL]

Hold on.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And so there's a whole universe of people that are getting things that are, like, even crazier than the shit that I see.

[Sarah Longwell]

I only heard. I heard chimney rock. I heard lithium and what? Hurricane.

[Tim Miller]

Hurricane.

[Sarah Longwell]

What are they even doing? I don't understand the words.

[Tim Miller]

Geoengineered by the government.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure.

[Tim Miller]

And access lithium deposits in chimney rock. I don't. I don't know. I don't know.

[Sarah Longwell]

Lithium deposits.

[Tim Miller]

Lithium deposits. I don't. I don't. I don't. I can't even fathom what this could be.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is there lithium in my chimney?

[Tim Miller]

Chimney.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is it valuable?

[Tim Miller]

Chimney rock?

[Sarah Longwell]

Do we need to knock down all the chimneys to get it out?

[Tim Miller]

So one of the things that interests me between Asheville.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is there a lithium shortage? Why do we need it out of the chips?

[Tim Miller]

We could use more lithium for the little batteries.

[JVL]

Oh, for the electric. For the electric cars.

[Tim Miller]

That's what they.

[JVL]

The bad electric cars. The good electric cars are made by Elon Musk. Those electric cars are all good electric cars. All the other electric cars are bad electric cars that the government's trying to make you buy.

[Sarah Longwell]

There's some holes in this theory, as.

[JVL]

I think about it. Can you talk about Thom Tillis who put out a statement saying all of these crazy people trying to impugn the disaster response are bad and they should stop? And then, like, 48 hours later, he was like, to be clear, I meant the Democrats who are trying to make political.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, somebody got a phone call, like.

[JVL]

A hostage video or something. Which is the CRA again, The craziest. Like, you know, so you have this Normie Republican who comes out to say, all of these crazy people should stop this. And then he gets yelled at by MAGA and is like. I meant the crazy Democrats. What is happening? What is happening? He hasn't even won yet. He's losing in the poll. Why can they not just. What am I saying?

[Tim Miller]

Here's the thing. Here's the thing, in seriousness. This hurricane is about to hit. Tampa is going to be fucking awful. Like, it is going to be awful. Like, we don't know how awful but potentially Katrina level awful. And this is a time when you need people to just act normal and to do your best to help people and to help address like the tragedy that is going to unfold from this and help solve problems and be problem solvers and work together and not do politics. And like, we don't. There have been a million of these hurricanes. We all live through the Sandy and the Chris Christie and Obama thing. Like, it's not that hard. And DeSantis who like played politics with the stupid Kamala Harris thing where I won't take her call, that was really dumb. But he like, feels like he has to do that, I guess to be tough for Fox. But like, if you watch the rest of his press conference, it's like totally normal. You know, like they're trying to resolve. If you watch Brian Kemp and Glenn Youngkin's press conferences, they're totally normal. It's like, it's just Trump and Vance and the crazy MAGA media world that are advancing all this. But, like, none of the people that are responsible are willing to say, guys, stop, stop. This is bad. This is hurting people in my community.

[JVL]

This is an advantage for the public. Right? They get to have it both ways. They get to turn out their flat earthers and to rile that base up and they then get to have the normie. Republicans are like, oh, see, you know, like, we're just doing the normal stuff.

[Tim Miller]

I know.

[JVL]

Nothing to see here. It's a huge advantage when you can be schizophrenic like that as a party, isn't it?

[Tim Miller]

I think so. I mean, yes, it also hurts them. I mean, like, it does hurt them with some category of regular people. Simple. But yeah, it is also an advantage.

[Sarah Longwell]

That is the one thing I'll say is sometimes when we say that there's no consequence or when we're like, these things didn't matter, I think we should remember that it has mattered. Right? They have lost every election over the last three cycles. Not by enough. But it's not that it doesn't matter. It has mattered to a critical number of people. And I think we have yet to see whether or not, I mean, this will be our first test. And this is why so much of 2024. I think the reason I'm almost more anxious about 2024 than I was about 2020 is that 2020 there was, it was a lot about Trump. 2024 is about us as a country. Right? We just, we will decide if a president, you know, Tom Nichols has a long piece in the Atlantic about Washington. And it's wonderful. And you guys should go read it. It's about leadership.

[Tim Miller]

You've read Tom Nichols long read Atlanta cover story. That's interesting.

[Sarah Longwell]

I read everything JB wrote. I read everything JBL wrote while I was away. His piece on the unified theory yesterday.

[JVL]

I don't know if you.

[Sarah Longwell]

The unified theory of Kamala's. That was so good. I tweeted about it. I talk about it. Did you? Yeah. What was I doing? I was doing some kind of interview where I started, where I talked about it. Anyway, I thought it was excellent. Jbl. But so is Tom Nichols piece about George Washington and the peaceful transfer power. So, like, if we elect Donald Trump, that says something enormous about us.

[JVL]

Yeah. When I say they don't pay a price, what I mean is that they don't pay a price at holding on to the power they have. And the power they have is control of one of our two political parties. Right. And this is. And so long as we live in.

[Tim Miller]

A universe, probably at minimum control of one chamber of Congress next year, Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[JVL]

So long as we live in a universe where these people get to get as many bites at the apple of democracy as they want. Like, it's not sustainable. Right. You can't do this where every single election, it's like one healthy party against one authoritarian party. Like that's.

[Sarah Longwell]

They can't.

[JVL]

At some point they have to. You can't do it indefinitely. All right, we gotta talk because, Tim, after we finish this show, you are gonna go and have a conversation with one of the. One of the good Republicans. One of the guys is just a straight shooter, tells it like it is. Representative Dan Crenshaw.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I don't want to waste too much time on this, because this is one of those that I'll believe it when it happens type situation. But it's supposed to be here. Right after we finish taping, I'm supposed to go sit down with Dan Crenshaw. And so Sarah and I used to media train each other. So I was just kind of thinking maybe we could end with Sarah. Do you have any thoughts, any advice for me? I think my biggest worry about myself, when I reflected, it's on Piers Morgan again. My last exchange with Piers Morgan, people really liked who saw the clips. But over the whole course of the interview, I get very agitated.

[JVL]

Oh, yeah.

[Tim Miller]

And Crenshaw is chill. Crenshaw is all, like, almost to the point of nihilism at times. Like, when I've watched some of his other interviews, he's like, how could you get so riled up about the stupid lie that Donald Trump's telling. It's not a big deal. And I get very agitated. So like, that's my self criticism. But I'll take any other, any other thoughts you guys have for my exchange with Dan Crenshaw.

[Sarah Longwell]

You don't have to self criticize so much as you have to, you know, demonstrate self control in this. That, that's right. You're. You're voicing this so that you control yourself in this environment because you don't want him to look chill while you look agitated. Yeah. Which here's some. A thought is to put that out there right away. The fact that he seems chill and that you, like, if I was like your opening could be. You know, Dan, I watch you in these interviews and one of the things I admire about you is that, you know, you're always so calm and always so chill about this. I have a difficult time maintaining my chill because I see the insurrection as so wrong and so troubling that I get agitated about it. I see Trump's relationship with Putin so agitated, so wrong, so crazy. And I constantly feel like we're underacting. So tell me, Congressman, how do you stay so relaxed in the face of this takeover of the Republican Party by this maniac?

[Tim Miller]

That's a good thought. It's a good thought. It's a good thought for an intro. You know, kind of lead with your weakness.

[Sarah Longwell]

Lead with your weakness. And also, you know, I think call the audience's attention immediately to what you see as a strength of his, but is actually his nihilism. Right. You just pointed it out. And I think you, if you put that out right at the beginning, you draw the attention, the audience's attention to the fact that this guy remains placid in the face of evil.

[Tim Miller]

That's good. Jbl, do you have any thoughts for me?

[JVL]

I mean, none that are useful.

[Tim Miller]

Give me an unusual thought. Oh, Sarah, you have a useful thought.

[Sarah Longwell]

I have more.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, go.

[JVL]

Then you should take Sarah's useful thoughts.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, one of the things I would say that I be that has enraged me both or most listening to Dan Crenshaw is the way that he shit on Liz Cheney, somebody who he obviously knows is right. I think having a little discussion with him about Liz and why he thinks that that's so wrong. Because I do think right now there's the category. So there's Liz, right? And Adam Kinzinger, who are out there. Jeff Flake actively supporting Kamala Harris, and then there's Mitt Romney, our boy Mitt, who is doing the weirdest possible thing, which is to say, you know who I'm voting for. I told you how I feel about Trump, but I can't say it. Like literally verbalizing. But I can't say it because it will diminish my influence in the Republican Party. And I just want to be like, oh, buddy, you don't have any influence left in the Republican Party. That's just in order for there to you to have any influence in a better version of the Republican Party, this one's got to get decimated. So do what you can to help beat it. I don't understand what you're talking about. Your rationale makes no sense. Okay, you got your Mitts, right? The people who won't enjoy. And even this is sort of your Kelly's and your madness. Like, okay, but then you got your Crenshaws. And I'm not sure between the Mitts and the Crenshaws, I still think the Crenshaws make me the angriest.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Which are just the people who absolutely know better, who feel exactly the same way Liz does, but has decided actively that they are going to shit on Liz. Because this is the thing, right? The anti. Antis do to us. If we didn't exist, they'd have to invent us.

[JVL]

That's how they butch up, shitting on.

[Sarah Longwell]

Us, is how they stay on side, right? And. And that's what Crenshaw is.

[Tim Miller]

That's why he agreed to do this. I keep wondering why Dan Crenshaw agreed to do this, but it's like he thinks that, like, it butches him up to attack me.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I guess that's right.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. The whole thing is it's definitely him worse because then the thing, the worst part about those guys thing that makes me the most mad that I just gonna have to breathe. Breathe and stay and keep my points in is like he pretends to get kind of mad about like democratic stuff, right? Like you'll bring up the assault on the Capitol. You know, I was bad. It was a bad day. But there are other things. And then it'll be like Kamala said that the Israeli people, her price controls are terrible. Yeah. Shamala said that Israeli people are ally and not Bibi. And that enrages me because we need to be shoulder to shoulder with me. And it's like, okay, come on. All right. So that's the stuff that gets me. But we'll see. Hopefully he does it. We'll see. How it goes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Ask about Ukraine. No, he's supposed to be a staunch ally of Ukraine. What does he think of Putin's. All the phone calls. Daddy, Trump's making a Putin. Is that alarming? Are we alarmed?

[JVL]

What do you think about when Trump stood next to Zelensky and talked about what a great relationship he has with Vladimir? Put.

[Tim Miller]

It did seem strange.

[JVL]

Dan. Dan. Okay with that? Maybe ask Dan about sending the tests, the COVID test, to Putin. Is that a thing he would have done?

[Tim Miller]

I think he's going to say that it's fake. I've been thinking about this. I think that the Russians have said it's true. The Russians can fake news? Yeah.

[JVL]

Well, I mean, if that's his. See, so this is. This is my advice, which is not useless, which is a show like fucking Piers Morgan. Who cares? I would just sit back and be totally based and act in all the ways that you actually can't act on television and make them, like, cut the interview. Just sit back and be like, you know, while Crenshaw is talking, be like, look at this fucking guy. This is ludicrous, Piers. How can you even let this fucking asshole on your airwaves? Just like total, you know, like, oh, oh, you don't like that? You want to cut this? Great.

[Tim Miller]

This is something for me to think about.

[JVL]

I don't care.

[Tim Miller]

All right? This is strategy for me to think about. I gotta go base. All right, good. Good thoughts, both of you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I like how you shower for Dan Crenshaw, but not for us.

[Tim Miller]

Hell yeah. No, not for Dan Crenshaw. I want. You know, look, if he's going to be in a suit, you know, I can't be in my 19. My 2012 faded LSU SEC championship should be in.

[JVL]

Okay, don't make it look like you dressed up for Dan Crenshaw.

[Tim Miller]

Okay? You guys are giving me power move. A lot to think about.

[JVL]

Power move. All right, guys, good show. Incredibly long show. We'll be back next week. The timer on our democracy keeps counting down. We'll be at three weeks left next time. I can't wait.

[Sarah Longwell]

Come see us in the Philly and Pittsburgh in Detroit, guys. Bye.

[JVL]

Good luck, America.