Born From Anger

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Born From Anger"
The Next Level
Release Date: November 8, 2024

In the episode titled "Born From Anger," hosts Jonathan V. Last (JVL), Sarah Longwell, and Tim Miller delve deep into the current state of American politics, focusing on the dynamics within the Republican Party, the strategies Democrats might employ moving forward, and the evolving landscape of voter behavior. The conversation is rich with political analysis, personal insights, and spirited debate, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing both major parties.

---

1. The Republican Party and Donald Trump's Influence

JVL opens the discussion by reflecting on a recent incident where Tim Miller's remarks were taken out of context by Fox News, sparking a conversation about the unpredictable nature of media portrayals and the challenges within the Republican Party.

Tim Miller shares his frustration:

"When somebody made it public. We did, I think. And Fox News grabbed it and started running it on Fox News as like. And they took it out of context."
[00:35]

The hosts explore how Donald Trump's continued influence shapes the Republican agenda, highlighting internal conflicts and the party's struggle to balance Trump's populist appeal with traditional Republican values.

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2. Democratic Strategy and Messaging

Sarah Longwell takes a strong stance on her approach to political commentary, asserting her commitment to speaking the truth without necessarily persuading others:

"My obligation as a commentator is only to say what I believe to be true."
[01:48]

The conversation shifts to how Democrats must navigate their messaging to reconnect with voters who feel disenfranchised. Tim Miller emphasizes the importance of understanding the economic frustrations that drive voter decisions:

"Do you know when somebody's like, my grocery bill has gone up $100 and I don't have $100 for my grocery bill to go up."
[05:42]

Sarah underscores the need for Democrats to possibly adopt a more populist and radical economic message to resonate with the working class:

"Maybe the answer is Democrats need to be providing something that is much more demagogic, populist, and radical."
[11:35]

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3. Voter Behavior and Demographics

The hosts analyze shifting voter demographics, particularly the decline of college-educated suburban voters moving towards Democrats and Independents. Tim Miller discusses the emergence of a "multiracial working-class coalition" within the Republican base:

"They are focused on non-college voters, of which there are many more than college-educated voters."
[07:26]

JVL admits a misjudgment in his analysis of the voter base, recognizing the importance of broader electoral support beyond traditional metrics:

"I did not believe that that was an outcome that was on the table. And that's a huge mistake."
[10:13]

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4. The Role of Social Media and Modern Culture in Politics

Tim Miller highlights the impact of social media on shaping public perceptions and exacerbating feelings of grievance among voters:

"People are like, why can't I access this life? And those disparities sort of always existed, but they are much more in people's faces."
[25:37]

Sarah Longwell connects this to the broader cultural shifts, noting how the democratization of information and the collapse of traditional institutions have left both parties scrambling to adapt:

"Everything is democratizing and everything is crumbling. We were forced into a position of being like the institutions are strong, the system is good, the system is working."
[21:10]

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5. Potential Policies and Their Impact

The discussion turns to specific policy proposals and their potential ramifications. Tim Miller critiques Kamala Harris's campaign strategies, suggesting that voters seek authenticity over traditional political rhetoric:

"Voters really understand. They're like, I know when someone's lying to me to get my vote."
[15:47]

JVL speculates on alternative Democratic policies that could appeal more directly to voter frustrations, such as anti-oligarch measures:

"Maybe the answer is that they need to be a little bit further out there and provide something more radical."
[12:36]

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6. Future Elections and Democratic Integrity

The hosts contemplate the integrity of future elections, particularly the likelihood of regular democratic processes continuing amidst growing populist movements. Sarah Longwell raises concerns about the stability of liberal democracy in the face of Trump's potential attempts to alter election rules:

"Liberal democracy was on the line, that we've already seen major cracks in the rule of law and the way that our government works."
[40:07]

Tim Miller discusses the risk of perpetual change elections driven by voter dissatisfaction and the pervasive influence of social media:

"We're going to be in this perpetual change election. If people always are angry because their phone gives them like a distorted sense."
[26:22]

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7. Treating Trump Like Foreign Leaders

A pivotal moment in the episode is when JVL poses a question about whether Democrats should treat Trump as they do foreign heads of state, considering his unpredictable behavior and potential threats to democratic norms:

"Should Democrats treat Trump the way foreign heads of state do?"
[39:18]

Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller debate the merits and drawbacks of such an approach. Sarah advocates against flattering or appeasing Trump, emphasizing the importance of protecting democratic values without resorting to harmful concessions:

"I think that Democrats should leave him to his own devices, and I do not think that they should try to suck up to him."
[41:31]

Tim adds that while outright resistance isn't the answer, Democrats should strategically oppose Trump's policies without escalating tensions:

"Democrats should be much more strategic about which hills they're going to die on in favor of harm mitigation."
[42:36]

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8. Conclusion and Reflections

As the episode wraps up, the hosts express their concerns about the future of American politics, the potential paths forward, and their own emotional responses to the current state of affairs. JVL shares a sense of alienation from the changing political landscape:

"I feel like an old person. This is what old people do. They're like this, this isn't like what I remember when I was 20."
[58:11]

Sarah echoes similar sentiments, grappling with the morally complex scenarios Democrats face in countering Trump's influence while maintaining their values:

"I don't want anything. But how does this get improved if they're like, Donald Trump lives in a world where there's no consequences for his actions?"
[56:24]

Tim emphasizes the importance of protecting key democratic principles without succumbing to destructive anger:

"Making a case to the American people about things that really matter to them has got to be much more like a much more basic Democratic message."
[44:44]

The episode concludes with the hosts acknowledging the uncertainty ahead and the need for ongoing dialogue and strategic thinking to navigate the turbulent political terrain.

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Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller on media portrayal:

  "We did, I think. And Fox News grabbed it and started running it on Fox News as like."
  [00:35]

• Sarah Longwell on her role as a commentator:

  "My obligation as a commentator is only to say what I believe to be true."
  [01:48]

• JVL on his analytical blind spots:

  "I did not believe that that was an outcome that was on the table. And that's a huge mistake."
  [10:13]

• Tim Miller on voter frustrations:

  "Do you know when somebody's like, my grocery bill has gone up $100 and I don't have $100 for my grocery bill to go up."
  [05:42]

• Sarah Longwell on Democratic messaging shift:

  "Maybe the answer is Democrats need to be providing something that is much more demagogic, populist, and radical."
  [11:35]

---

This episode of The Next Level offers a profound exploration of the current political climate, emphasizing the necessity for thoughtful strategy and authentic communication in bridging the growing divide between parties and their respective voter bases. Through spirited debate and insightful analysis, Last, Longwell, and Miller provide listeners with a nuanced perspective on the challenges facing American democracy today.

Transcript

[JVL]

Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark on the Secret show. And ba ba ba ba ba ba. Also, Tim Miller.

[Tim Miller]

Is that like the McDonald's theme song? What was that for, Tim?

[JVL]

I'm just like, this is a weird mashup. This is the next level. But we're actually going to treat it like it's the secret show where it's all sort of, you know, lights are down, we're having a couple ciggies, a little bit of. Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Do you know that? So when we did the Secret Show, a couple. Maybe it was last week and I was just like in my T shirt and I was, you know, got wound up and did a. Had like a bit of a yell at one point that we put it out. When somebody made it public. We did, I think. And Fox News grabbed it and started running it on Fox News as like. And they took it out of context. Cause it was me kind of hectic Republicans. It was me saying like, this is on you, like George W. Bush and the Generals. And instead it just sounded like I was yelling at voters. So that was nice.

[JVL]

Maybe we should.

[Tim Miller]

I'm just saying, Tim, it's not always a secret.

[JVL]

Yeah, well, maybe we shouldn't put it on. Put it on the interwebs.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's actually a good transition to one of my things I want to talk about, which is I have really decided to not give a fuck about those people. Like, I had a. Like there's a hole. There's a whole cottage industry out there of Republican types and even media types and even some of us who are like the Never Trumpers really missed this and this is a wake up call and they don't understand the people and understand the voters. And as part of my.

[JVL]

I mean, all those things are true.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, yeah. It's part of my complex nine layer cake of depression. I was taking some of that in upon myself. I was like, maybe I did miss something. Maybe I was. And then as I was thinking about this last night after a cigarette, I was like, no, no, fuck you. I'm right. We're right. I'm right. I'm going to be right about what happened with Donald Trump. My obligation as a commentator is only to say what I believe to be true. Like that is it. Like that is the right. Is that not the limit of my obligation? Do I have an obligation to try to persuade the people of Waukesha county that what I believe to be true is true? I don't think so. My Obligation is to say what is true. I believe that everything that we warned about Donald Trump is going to come to pass in some degree or another. And the people, a bare majority, kind of small majority, but a bare majority of people, disagreed and are not worried about that and are going to support him anyway. I don't really get the. Like, I've taken off the hair shirt, I guess, is what I'm saying. I've moved into defiance mode.

[Tim Miller]

Well, that's good, but I don't think. I mean, I guess I saw Scott Jennings do this. Scott Jennings is just taking shots while he has a chance to take shots. That's all. He's feeling himself. And he wants to be like, those never Trumpers who were so mean to me. They've been lecturing voters, but we weren't. We were lecturing Scott Jennings because Scott Jennings was a never Trumper who decided. And it's funny how, like, their thing is, like, they built it so they could all have beach houses. I'm like, bro, you got your CNN contract to be like Trump surrogates and you're gonna go into the white. Like, we all know what you did. Don't. Shut up.

[Sarah Longwell]

You're just.

[Tim Miller]

This is all projection from you. And the bulwark maybe became profitable like five seconds ago. So, like, you know, JVL hasn't gotten a chance to, you know, run to the casino with it yet.

[JVL]

So anyway, the yacht, my big yacht, it's coming.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it is.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're going to have boat parades coming soon. Anti Trump boat parades.

[Tim Miller]

Anyway, here's the thing, the analysis. So I think, Tim, we're talking about a couple different things. So that's true. Part of it is for us to be like, to say what's happening in the Republican Party. And I think that is the different question from whether what's happening is good or bad, right or wrong. And I think that the argument that JVL and I are having, I don't think there was any illusions about the fact that voters were feeling like the economy wasn't good and that they were being hurt by inflation. The question was whether or not JBL thought that was a fair thing to vote on in the face of, I think Donald Trump's many problems. And also, like, how there were lots of people who were gonna vote for him who did not, who were actually on the upside of a positive macro economy. Now, I was always like, look, there's a lot of people, though, who don't feel that a lot of young people, people who make $100,000 and those people broke for Trump in a major way, and that made a big difference in this election. So that's an analysis piece, right? And I think, look, I was doing the pod with George yesterday, and George was like, I can't believe anybody would vote over the price of eggs versus, you know, American democracy. And I like, well, I do not think that. Okay, that is. That is, that is. I am. I think that it is very difficult to make a case about American democracy in an abstract way when somebody's like, my grocery bill has gone up $100 and I don't have $100 for my grocery bill to go up.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, no, I agree with that. No, I agree. So, look, you're right. There's two elements here that I'm lashing out about. One is, was the analysis correct? I stand by it. Like, on the very last podcast, I expected that Kamala Harris would have a narrow victory through the blue wall. That obviously turned out to be wrong. But it was, like, caveated gravely. And it was, what, three weeks ago on this next level where I was like, we need to end the next level with me telling you the truth that I think Donald Trump is going to win. That was like, three weeks ago. And, like, a J. Because of the fucking Anne Seltzer poll. So, yeah, my analysis was kind of grayed by one. By the New York Times Sienna poll. And so that's a Nate Cohen and Anne Seltzer problem. And I don't know, they can put on their hair shirts while they drink their seltzer. So there's an analysis question. But then there also is, like, this mission of, like, wither never Trump. Like, wither anti Trump? Like, wasn't your. Wasn't the. Wasn't the raison d'etre to galvanize people? And I was like, yeah, like, yeah, I wish we would have galvanized more people. But, like, my. The purpose, the existence is to rate. Like, is to raise the alarm, right? Is to. Is to create a gathering of people who are, like, minded about the alarm and to try to raise it and to cover it and to analyze it. And if we, you know, or Paul Revere, like, riding the horse through the villages, you know, telling them that the fascists are coming, and everybody's like, whatever, bro. I don't know. Like, I just. I don't know what more, you know what I mean? Like, I stand by. I stand by the warning. I stand by the warning, and I think it will bear itself out. I hope not. I would love to be wrong, actually, but I Think it will.

[Tim Miller]

Well, also, like, I mean, like in, in Pennsylvania, 8% of Republicans voted for Harris. Like I, like in some of these states where we're in the. Wow. Counties in Wisconsin, you know, she did better. It's like one of the few places she improved. The problem is, and I think that there needs to be some real grappling with this is that like parts of the Democratic coalition that they just sort of rely on, you know, like there's a slide with black men. The Republicans now have a much more multiracial working class coalition. They are focused on non college voters, of which there are many more than college educated voters, especially low propensity ones who only turn out in elections and who do not follow the news at all and who are voting on like very specific things that are personal to them, like their costs or like their housing or whatever. And so I just, I think that I just, that's what I think is happening. And like, I don't, I feel like that is, you know, I just that like that's what we are focused on, trying to pull those people. And I feel like those. And that's just people who still identify as a Republican. We already have a huge swath of those college educated suburban voters who are now firmly moved to independents and Democrats. Right. And so they are traded, but they got swamped. That's right. And we always knew, like, we argued this all the time around how these non college voters and this was it, she had to do four points better with non college white women. And she didn't because there was always this tension with the non college white women around abortion rights and how people cared about that and the fact that a lot of these women are the primary shoppers and the people who do their household budgets and felt really unhappy with the economy.

[JVL]

All right, well, I will put on my hair shirt then.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, great.

[JVL]

Because I do.

[Sarah Longwell]

I've been wearing mine for two days. I'm just saying it was like finally, after 48 hours, I was like, fuck this.

[JVL]

Well, so I feel as though there are. There are two parts of my analytical worldview which were deeply wrong in which I need to do. Do some examining of. The first was, you know, I always said 50, 50 chance he could win. Right. You know, we would have the bus tour. I would tell people, look, you know, my heart tells me he's gonna win. My head says that she is, but my heart heart says Trump will.

[Sarah Longwell]

People should relist that Pittsburgh stop at the bus tour. Which stop was it? Where I got a little too drunk and a Little too dark.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, it was Pittsburgh.

[JVL]

But I really did not take. And you and I talked about this yesterday, Sarah, I did not countenance the possibility that he could win a flat majority of the popular vote.

[Sarah Longwell]

Me neither.

[JVL]

I did not believe that that was an outcome that was on the table. And that's a huge mistake in a huge blind spot. And that stems from me not understanding America. That's, I mean, that's on me. But the second thing I worry about is, like, I don't know that the answer is that Democrats need to be more moderate and centrist. Maybe that's an answer. I don't know. But I mean, so what we're looking at right now is we're looking at all these counties where Trump is like plus three, plus five versus his margin in 2020. What we don't know is did he increase his number of votes or did her votes just disappear? And so far it looks like Democrats simply didn't show up. Maybe the answer is, and we wouldn't like this because we are not progressives, we are not commies, except for one of us. Maybe the answer is Democrats need to be providing something that is much more demagogic, populist and radical, and that that is what will get the blood of.

[Sarah Longwell]

Space is so good.

[JVL]

I'm not saying it is, but I'm saying we ought to consider that that's a possibility.

[Sarah Longwell]

As Jen, as usual, JBL is producing the commie view, Sarah, the counterview. And I'm going to be in the middle ground. So, Sarah, why don't you go and then I be Goldilocks synthesis.

[JVL]

Again, I'm not saying yes. I'm just saying if the case is like, if she had the Biden, the same Biden numbers and Trump's were just like 3% higher, then I would say, okay, well that would. Then the answer is probably more centrism, more moderism, more moderation. But if the answer is that, like she ran with Liz Cheney and she ran on like, I'm gonna have a lethal fighting force and I own a gun, bitches. And you know, I love capitalism and small business owners and her, her, the number of votes she went, she needs, she got, or that the Democrats got to 2020 went, then maybe the answer is that they need to be a little bit further out there and provide something more radical.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, this is super wrong in my opinion. Maybe it is.

[JVL]

Maybe it's.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, fine. Well, let me just explain what I think is especially wrong about it, which is like, yes, she in her the last hundred days, right? And then in the last, you know, 15 days of those hundred days or 20 days of those hundred days, she was doing a closing argument with Liz Cheney. But, like, videos exist, man. Like, the number one thing, the number one ad that people ran or that people saw was the ad of Kamala Harris back in 2019 talking about gender reassignment surgery. Taxpayer funded gender reassignment surgery for trans criminals, convicts. And if you watch the ad, it is a. It includes, like, shocking imagery of, like, kind of bearded women. Like, things that would shock the sensibilities of many in the Midwest. And it's Kamala Harris on tape being like, yes, I think we should fund these. Now, the fact that it happened a grand total of twice, there are two gender reassignment surgeries that happened for prisoners. The fact is that was the ad that Donald Trump and his team put the most money behind, and they put a lot of other money behind. She's a radical progressive from California, which is the last time voters had seen her was that person. I'll tell you something I hear in the focus groups that I think to me is instructive. When she shows back up as, like, a pretty different candidate than the person that she was back in 2019, voters are like, huh? Well, and let me tell you one thing voters really understand. They're like, I know when someone's lying to me to get my vote. And they thought, yeah, do they know? Listen, Donald Trump's been saying the same things for the last three elections, right? They know him very, very well. And especially for younger voters, we talk about this all the time. They do not see him as the aberration that people like us see him as. Now, I do think that's a failure of, you know, us being able to explain why he's such an aberration. But, you know, and in any event, I think that it was the fact that people perceived her as a radical trying to be more moderate to win an election, and they didn't feel like they really knew exactly who she was. And I'll tell you, voters will take an authentic person saying insane garbage now. And this is a manifestation of our new culture, whether it is the marinating for decades in antiheroes, whether it's the way people now live on TikTok in the podcast in this universe of, like, I want this person to both say the things I want to say on policy, but I just, like, mostly I want them to be real with me and this not a regular politician that I hear over and over and over again for why people Like Donald Trump. That was always my big fear. I know I said it on here that like my fear was that people would perceive her as a regular politician. And that is just especially for young people where she really underperformed. They don't want regular politicians.

[JVL]

Tim, before you synthesize, let me offer the counterview of this, which is, I mean, a, if the answer is you can't run a regular politician, then Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer need to leave because they're not going to be able to run for president. Gavin probably can't run for president. Right. I mean, he is just a regular politician. It has to be somebody like Fetterman or Mark Cuban, somebody who codes wildly different. But when I, when I talk about the radical stuff, you're hearing me saying more like progressive. And what I mean is more anti institutional. Like Kamala's message was like, we gotta protect these institutions like capitalism and the rule of law and all these things that again, we love. Right? Sign me up. Sign me up. But maybe what voters would respond to is a much more burn it all down liberal populist message. Like for instance, the billionaires are blood sucking oligarchs and we need to go after Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg and confiscate their wealth or blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

[Tim Miller]

Right.

[JVL]

You could just like, they're the ones who rigged the system against us, they're the reason you can't get ahead, et cetera, et cetera. And maybe that is more fruitful. Again, I'm just proposing it. I'm not, I'm not saying it necessarily is true. And maybe you can do that while also, you know, throwing trans people under the bus and you know, and throwing immigrants under the bus too, I don't know. But I just worry that it isn't the case that the things that I like are going to be popular enough to get to 51%. That's my concern.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I think we should be careful about overreading too much.

[JVL]

Also fair. Maybe it's just like inflation and the anti incumbent bias. That's all the whole world. Right? That's the other problem with this. Maybe like the answer is as simple as that and all of these other explanations are over reading.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I do think it's not over reading to say that Americans are like incredibly desensitized to a bunch of things that should matter around character, rule of law and all those other things. But I also just don't think it should be like, okay, Trump won this way. So the correct thing to do is to do exactly what he's doing. This time of year, I find myself reflecting on things I'm grateful for, like family, friends and my health. Another thing I'm grateful for the fact that I can help my skin stay healthy and resilient as I get older. And boy, am I getting older. And that's thanks to today's sponsor, One Skin. Their scientifically proven skincare routine has made a noticeable difference in how my skin looks and feels. Their OS1 peptide works at the cellular level to switch off the dysfunctional cells that cause your skin to become dry, dull and age faster than it needs to. To celebrate the holidays, One Skin has introduced their limited edition holiday bundle featuring Travel sizes of OS1 face, OS and OS1 body, all in this chic leatherette bag. It's the perfect gift, but you actually may want to keep this one for yourself. I got one and I'm keeping it. Take advantage of this exclusive bundle while it lasts. As a listener, you'll get 15% off using code thenextlevel when you check out at Oneskin Co. Invest in your skin's long term health this holiday season because healthy skin is a gift. I know. Look here, look at my eyes. Both Tim and I have been using it. George uses it. We all keep it right by our door desks. Mine's sitting right here. I've been using it because people keep, see, you know, emailing me to say, are you too tired? So I, I just keep, I just keep putting it on to keep the. Keep my skin smooth. One Skin is the world's first skin longevity company. One Skin addresses skin health at the molecular level, targeting the root causes of aging so skin behaves, feels and appears younger. It's time to get started with your new face, eye and body routine at a discounted rate today, get 15% off with the code the next level at on skin co. That's 15 off one skin co. With code the next level. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. We have only one body, one skin. And only you can choose to make it better. Age healthy with one skin. Go ahead, Tim. Sorry.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's okay. I don't, I don't know how much of a synthesis I'm going to be because I'm kind of on JBL side of this. But I want to explain why, just maybe less, less radical than you. But I want to explain why though. And maybe my language will be more appealing to Sarah than Your joker language. But like it is obviously true that a big part of the story is inflation and anti incumbent bias and global stuff. That said, I looked at the chart this morning, I forget who posted it. So I apologize to them of the quadrants of education and income and what candidate share the vote is from high education, high income versus low education, low income, et cetera. And the Kamala Harris, like where she fit in, that was like closest to Bob Dole and Mitt Romney, like of the past, you know, whatever, 40 years of candidates. That's a bad quadrant to be in as evidence by the fact that all three lost. Right. And like she and like it's not.

[JVL]

Good, but it makes sense that we all liked her because we all liked Mitt Romney. Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

All my favorite candidates. It's a bad quadrant to be in though. And I'm happy to give away some of my policy priors to product from 12 years of Donald Trump and JD Vance or whatever. So that means the Democrats have to do something to appeal to working class people that's a little bit different. That is not just maybe, it's just Donald Trump crashes the economy and they don't actually have to do anything. That's one possibility. But if that doesn't happen, they have to come up with another idea. If that is not the answer. To me this sort of stuff I had a very long podcast I did yesterday with Pablo Torre about which, whatever, you can Google it. Pablo Torre finds out and we were talking just a lot about cultural stuff and he does mostly he's at the sports culture intersection and it's about how all these institutions have collapsed. It's not just politics, the democratization of everything. He was doing it from his sports lens. He's talking about Sports Illustrated and ESPN and all of that. And you could do it in any vertical. We've seen this across the board and the Democrats and us by Trump for very defensible reasons were forced into the situation at this anti elite moment where everything is democratizing and everything is crumbling. We were forced into a position of being like the institutions are strong, the system is good, the system is working, works, respect the system. And that just might be a losing hand. Right? And like the Democrats just might need to find themselves in a position of being anti system in a way that is not the joker, that is not we're gonna, you know, whatever, seize the means of production, but in some other way that is more populist, that maybe is economically populous and maybe is just about punishing the oligarchs. Trump might make that very easy over the next four years by giving handouts to Elon Musk and all these other guys whose profiles are going to improve. I'm open to what it looks like, I guess, but I'm just saying I feel like that those of us who are kind of more that thinks the system is good, we might need to change the system to save the system, to be a little bit more radical in the way that you view the system to save the system. We're three days out and I've slept, like, 12 hours and I haven't been home, and I'm like, living in no exit in this little fucking hotel room in 30 Rock. And I think I'm losing my mind. So I reserve the right to change this view next week. But anyway, that's.

[JVL]

That's what the secret see on the secret show. Tim. Yeah, we're not taking stands. We're just trying on ideas.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Okay. So that's where I'm at. That's fine. Sarah, did that. Did that shirt fit for you a little bit better or still no.

[Tim Miller]

You know, I don't know if you listened to JBL and I do our secret pie yesterday.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was like the first half, and then I forget what happened, but I.

[Tim Miller]

Had to change, so it's okay. Well, in the second half, one of the things that I said that I would say is, I guess could. Could fit a little bit into this is that I am thinking more about what income inequality is potentially sort of doing to voters, right? Like, if you look, Donald Trump is winning, right? People who make under $100,000. And I think that there's, like, all these cultural factors that are shifting people. So one of them is the way that social media. It used to be that, like, if you lived in a neighborhood, right, People had rough in your neighborhood. The people you saw had roughly the same kind of stuff you did, right? They had the same kind of car, the same kind of house. And now everybody's got, like, a better life on their phone that they see other people having. And I think it's causing a level of grievance and that is, like, slightly different. And people are like, well, why can't I access this life? And those kind of disparities sort of always existed, but they are much more in people's faces. Look, I also think, like I said, 20 years of marinating and Tony Soprano, like, antiheroes.

[Sarah Longwell]

Just really quick one thought on the phone, because I've been wanting to say this on every podcast. I just never get the right to that chart that everybody keeps showing about how the incumbent parties did the worst in 2024, about any year since 1905 or whatever. I keep looking at it, I'm like, yeah, okay, inflation is annoying. I get it. I'm not trying to understate it, but there have been so many bad years since 1905 that were objectively. Yeah. That were objectively worse than 2024 across every economic war pandemic. And so like the phone has to be a part of the story, right? Like, if people are so mad, like, it can be. They can have both legitimate grievance about how annoying the inflation is, but also it's being exacerbated by the phone.

[Tim Miller]

Absolutely. And you're in silos and like, look, making people mad is like the coin of the realm for a lot of this stuff. And as a result, that's why I think it's not just the anti incumbent sentiment right now. Like, I think we're gonna be in a thing where being an incumbent is no longer like a fundamental. That works in your favor. Right. That, that is that for a long time, incumbency was like a thing that people really needed. And now I think it might either be a wash or actually a net negative because we're going to be in this perpetual change election. If people always are angry because their phone gives them like a distorted sense, always of like, it's better over there somewhere. And also, my gosh, now I know what the people who live over there on that other side of the mountain that I didn't used to know. I know what they think, and I think what they think sucks. And I'm mad about that.

[Sarah Longwell]

Imagine living in Waukesha county in 1984 and knowing what the protesters on Columbia University's campus were doing every day. You had no idea. Maybe there's one article about it in the paper or something. You know what I mean? Now it's in your phone contact.

[JVL]

Well, this is our sixth consecutive change election, right? Going back to 2014. Like, I mean, that is weird. I guess. Let me. I want to ask you a question, Sarah. And this goes to the sort of fundamental change in what people want from a candidate. If I was a genie and I popped out of the bottle and I said to you, all right, November 8, 2024, if you want her, I can give you Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee in 2028.

[Sarah Longwell]

Pass.

[JVL]

I can't promise you anything else, but if you want her, you can have her.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'll take the field.

[JVL]

Would you take it or no?

[Tim Miller]

What are My other options.

[JVL]

The other option is, like, I don't use my genie powers and we just, like, let it ride on and who knows?

[Tim Miller]

Is Tim, is your immediate reaction? Because I got some, like, personal dms about JVL saying it can never be a woman. Like, we can't run a woman again. Where people are like, he is being so deeply misogynistic and awful. And I did write back in your defense to say, like, no, he thinks other people are misogynistic and awful, and that's why he doesn't think a woman can get elected. Is your question, though, jbl, can she get elected? Like, could Gretchen Whitmer get elected in 2020?

[JVL]

Like, her chances as what she is, which is both a woman and very moderate and. But also, like, very politician. She's not very moderate, Somewhat moderate, but also like, a politician.

[Tim Miller]

But she's better than a regular politician. She knows how to talk to people. Have you ever heard her do, like, a radio interview?

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

Kamala Harrison, like, she seems like a regular person.

[JVL]

So does Kamala Harris. I mean. But a regular politician, right?

[Tim Miller]

I mean, I.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can I interject something to this convo really quick? Because I've had several people messages to me when we start doing all this stuff. Sarah's got the messages about the woman. I think that. I think the Democrats. I think it's going to be hard for the Democrats to nominate a woman in 2028. I think for some practical reasons that. That are maybe unfair, but I just. I just think that that's reality. But as this has been coming up, there have been people actually, both next to me at MSNBC and in my messages that are like, why are you guys doing this? Like, why are you guys acting like there's going to be an election in 2028? Like, why? Like, what do you mean? Like, everything's over. And like, like, my reaction to that is that I've. On every podcast I've had where I've brought up this topic, I've asked people, like, what percent chance do you think it is that Trump will try to stay and that we won't have a real election in 2028? And, like, the answers vary, but nobody's like 100, you know, I mean, but I think that, like, there may be some listeners or people that are like, wait a minute, isn't everybody's talking about the end of democracy? And I think that's a fair thing to ask, which is why I bring it up, because my view of it is always, like, my view is like, in my mind it's always been. No, I think that liberal democracy was on the line, that we've already seen major cracks in the rule of law and the way that our government works and that, like, there's a chance Donald Trump will just try to stay in power. And the chance is way too high for my liking, but that will. That we'll likely have elections and maybe elections that Donald Trump tries to. Not rig is not the right word, but tries to, you know, institute new rules that make things harder, like, you know, whatever. There are, like, various things that could happen. The power of the tack oligarch of Elon between now and 2028 is only going to grow. There's a lot of unknowns. But, like, I was, I was never on the side that was really like, oh, no, we're not going to have an election in 2028. But I think when people heard that, you know, some people processed it differently. So anyway, I just, I wanted to throw that out to the group.

[Tim Miller]

Well, and jv jvl, I think, has made this point where he's like, what? He's asked. Like, he asked. I don't know what. We've certainly talked. This was like, well, what. What percentage chance would you give that we have that we don't have a regular election in 2028? And your point was always like, if it's 3% or 5%, like, that's way too high. And so I think any of us are sitting here being like, there's a 95% chance that we won't have regular elections or like, we won't have elections in 2026. I think we will have those things. But I also want to say that without going into too much, in the days leading up to the election, I heard from a lot of people who knew Trump personally, and there was a real. Donald Trump was gonna try to declare victory no matter what. Right. Like, we are not like, he was going to try to put pressure on state legislatures to certify alternate slate of electors. No Donald Trump. Our analysis of Donald Trump has been dead right always. This is where I guess I don't think I've been wearing. I wasn't even thinking of wearing a hair shirt. I was trying to think, like, were there blind spots? Were there things that I, you know, but that, no, we're 100% right about Donald Trump and Donald Trump. Now I think there's a question of which way do his incentives go as he prepares for this next four years? So I'll tell you one thing that the one piece of News that has come out that I have seen as a positive relative to alternatives is Susie Wiles is gonna be his chief of staff.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's our next fight. Great.

[Tim Miller]

So I think Susie Wiles is a total degenerate who went to work for Donald Trump, but she is. I don't know. I just. Like, she's. I'm trying to think, like, she's not Laura Loomer. Like Laura Loomer is not as chief of staff. And I think that that's good. I would.

[Sarah Longwell]

I want to layer something onto this, and then I'm going to give it to jbl, because I think that this will be the second time on this podcast that me and JBL are on the same side, which makes me uncomfortable. I prefer when I'm on Sarah's side. There are two items of news I've seen today.

[JVL]

I'm sitting right here.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sorry. The Susie Wiles news, which the bulwarks slack just to speak to everybody else to show that it's really me and JBL against the world. The bulwark slack was like, oh, good. This is. Okay, good. It could have been way worse than Susie Wiles. And I saw that news and I was like, I wanted Corey Lewandowski. And then the Axies. Yeah. Then the axiest thing came this morning that said, I think had Trump won a narrow electoral college victory where Hakeem Jeffries was the speaker, obviously that would have been very preferable, but he would have had no levers to do any economic policy except tariffs. So he would have gone all in on tariffs in that case. In this case. Now, if he's going to have both houses, what Axios is reporting is he's going to do handouts to oligarchs. There's going to be deregulation, extending the tax cuts, deregulation of tech and AI and crypto. There's going to be banks going to have rules loosened on them. And that's more traditional Republican stuff. And so on the one hand, I think that you could look at that and say, oh, Trump's going to get these business guys in there with Susie Wiles and they're going to do tax cut deregulation stuff. And you could look at that and say, that's good. Or you can look at that and say, hmm, I don't know if that's good. So, jvl, that's where I wanted to set the table.

[JVL]

Yeah. I mean, first, I just want to put a button on the Will there be an election in 2028? Because again, this is Something I said a bunch of times, both in the newsletter and on shows with you guys, it was always a question of, like, what is the chance? And now that we have Trump, you know, in the words of Nick Fury, until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on. And that is the only way to carry on. Right? You can't just preemptively assume, well, I guess we don't get an election, you know. No, you gotta carry on as though. As though it will.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know who Nick Fury is, but that's wise.

[JVL]

That's okay. Don't worry about it.

[Tim Miller]

He's probably a wrestler, the foreign.

[JVL]

Okay, so the Susie Wiles question, I mean, objectively, it's good. I think that Susie Wiles is the chief of staff. That doesn't mean that she'll. I mean, his chiefs of staff don't tend to last very long. Mick Mulvaney was chief of staff during an insurrection, wasn't he? No, I guess he was gone. It was Meadows.

[Tim Miller]

Mark Meadows was.

[JVL]

Meadows was chief of staff during the insurrection. So, like, I mean, to the extent that you could limit some damage early, probably, probably that's good. But on the other hand, I do kind of, part of me would like voters to get the Trump that they voted for, because I think that that would be an important learning experience for them. And I mean, maybe, maybe, for instance, maybe deporting 15 million immigrants, which is what he promised over and over, will turn into. He deports, like, 25,000 immigrants and then just declares victory and it's the wall that Mexico paid for. And maybe that's good or maybe it's bad. I don't know. Like, that's a very real question to me, because then, you know, like, Trump's people never got mad that there was no wall and that Mexico didn't pay for it. They just wanted to be able to say that they wanted the wall. And maybe they won't get mad that he doesn't deport 15 million people. Maybe they just wanted to be able to rage around saying that they wished he would deport 15 million people. And maybe the human suffering is, you know, fine, whatever. But on the other hand, maybe we need a little bit of accelerationism to head off the slow slide into autocracy. Right? I mean, because maybe, maybe the problem is, like, that the water just gets keeping turned up a little bit at a time when.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[JVL]

People should see the full thing.

[Sarah Longwell]

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[JVL]

I had a question for you guys. What if, and this was something sent to me by a reader. Should Democrats treat Trump the way foreign heads of state do? Right, because foreign leaders have learned like just, you know, Hakeem Jeffrey is just going to be like sir, sir, with tears in his eyes. You know, you are a great man and I am now realizing how great you are. I just want to help you out and be your partner and then try to get like the protections for the things that Speaker Jeffrey or Speaker but Minority Leader Jeffries really cares about in exchange and just sort of go along to get along. Is that a wise thing for Democrats to do? It's the real politic thing to do, right? I mean, all these other heads of state do.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think this comes down to a fundamental question that might be the new fundamental thing that divides you and Sarah. You had, are the people good? Was the first divide, and this might be the next one for the next four years, which is.

[JVL]

I think I won that argument right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Are they good? The question is, is the best way to alleviate suffering and protect people, to allow there to be some suffering for a while that maybe has shakes things loose, you know, shakes us from our decadent stupor, or is the preferable thing to try to protect people as much as possible in the short term from Trump's whims and threats because he doesn't really care about them that much? Right. Like, he's not a deep ideal. And, like, I think that that's a legitimate question that we're gonna have to keep talking about. Like, my instinct falls on the side of. I don't think that the Democrats should. I think that the Democrats should leave him to his own devices, and I do not think that they should try to suck up to him and get things out of him and flatter him and prey on his weaknesses, and we'll see how 2026 goes. That's my gut instinct. But again, I reserve the right to change my mind. But I think that there's a good argument on the other side.

[Tim Miller]

I also want to reserve the right to change my mind and have a gut instinct, and my gut instinct is this. I do not think that they should suck up to him. Absolutely not. However, I also think that instead of, like, full resistance, like, full resistance mode, I don't think they should do that either. I think that the Democrats should be much more strategic about which hills they're going to die on in favor of harm mitigation. Right. So I do think we have a responsibility, and I think it's a little bit. It's a little bit of like a, you know, you're pissed at people, you think people are being dumb. So, like, they wanted this. Give it to them good and hard. That is a. I understand the impulse, but I think it's an impulse, and I think we should. It's an impulse we should check pretty hard because it's born from a place of anger, and it's not born from a place like, it's not coming from our best self. Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

And so the anger is currently convincing me that it's coming from my best self, though. The anger is convincing me that the pain. That we need pain to have recovery.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. And I guess I think that you can probably. I think Trump is so harmful, so deeply harmful in so many ways that you can have plenty of eye opening moments for the voters that said, oh, I didn't mean this, I didn't want this. Right. But I don't know that you want it to be at the expense of, you know, people who are American citizens getting deported to places they've never been. Right. Like, I just, I think that there we should, we should be in the mindset of what are the most important things to protect and like, what are our hills to die on over those? And we should be in a harm mitigation mode. But I don't think you have to do it by sucking up to them. I do think you have to do it by. And this is going to be a pretty constant refrain from me. I think that making a case to the American people about things that really matter to them has got to be more like a much more basic Democratic message. Democrats don't have to decide to. They don't have to throw trans people under the bus, per se, like JVL was saying, or throw immigrants under the bus to say, like, okay, we are not going to have biological men playing women's sports. Like, just take that stance. That's not throwing trans people under the bus. Nor is saying that, like, we are going to have borders that we are going to enforce and, like, we are going to have a. Like, those are different things. And I think that I would not die on a, I would die on a hill over them deporting the children of American citizens with their parents who are here illegally and parents who have been here, you know, people who've been here for 30 years. But am I going to, I'm not going to die on a hill or say that if Trump wants to.

[JVL]

I'm sorry, can you say it again? You would die on that hill?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, the deportation of American citizens, the racist demagoguing of American citizens. Yeah, those are putting 15 million people into camps. But that is different from if they have, if they pass a really tough border security bill. You know, I think the Democrats should work with them on that.

[JVL]

I agree with that. Not on the deportation stuff.

[Tim Miller]

Right. But this is my point.

[JVL]

My point is like choosing people.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, look, I think if they started and said, like, people who are here illegally, who have come here illegally within the last five years, who've committed a crime, like if that was where they started.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sarah's talking, I think you guys talking about different things. JBL is talking. Sarah's talking about, like, what is the rhetorical space that you're going to fight him on JBL is like what like and jbl. Yeah. What are the legislative roadblocks?

[JVL]

Should you fill a bus? Right. Like if Trump said I'm going to present it. Right. If there was such a thing as the 15 million deportation bill of 2025 and it came to the Senate, should Democrats filibuster it? And I think the answer should be no. They happy to vote against it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Don't stop it. There'll be much to discuss on this. My main thing thinking about all this as it applies to us, as it applies to me, that's going to be a little bit of a challenge. But I think that should apply to Democrats broadly and we should try to model good behavior is that they should focus on objecting to Trump over the things that he does. Like, I think that the one thing that is that for me is feels a little over from resistance. 2017 is being, is getting mad about whatever he fucking comes out of his pie hole. Like, you know, I think that there should be a pivot to focusing because I think that some of the things that he did in the first term got lost because people were so, so outraged over the things that came out of his fucking disgusting mouth. And so I think that is a good place to start from. And then I think that then the question is how much of the stuff that he does to just let him do and how much of the stuff that he does do you try to restrain? And I think that's a real question, Sarah.

[JVL]

So a minute ago you were talking about Democrats having a message. How do they message without a leader though? Because there is no Democratic leader. Right. If they had held the House, it would have been Hakeem Jeffries. It would have been incredibly important. But there is no center to the Democratic Party now. How does that work?

[Tim Miller]

I mean, I think leaders do emerge in these moments. My biggest fear would be that they are bad leaders. That you get that people are pretty desperate for their fighter and you end up with somebody say his name. Yeah, like Gavin.

[JVL]

Say his name.

[Tim Miller]

As opposed to, you know. But I think there will be people who emerge, hopefully who understand. And I also, look, I'm for this current sort of soul searching part on the Democrats to have a discussion about what it means to appeal to non college voters. Like they do have to. They have to think about that. They cannot. Demography is not destiny. This is not. Trump does not have a mandate. This isn't a wild political realignment in his direction. But Democrats are sliding with groups across the political spectrum. The Republican Party is very focused on building a multiracial working class coalition. And it's a big coalition that is steeped in populist economics, isolationism, anti immigration sentiment. And you know, they do not want, nobody wants to be in foreign wars, right? It's this and the scarcity, the way that people, if people feel scarcity, they are then don't like it if you're sending money to Ukraine. Right. They don't like it if they think immigrants are getting something that they're not. Like, right. That's what Trump, Trump is appealing to. And I just think that like Democrats are gonna have to figure out they've been tremendously vulnerable in immigration for a long time. And I guess if we were talking about the quadrants, Donald Trump has a much more populist economic message than Republicans did in the past. And those were losers. So I'm with you that like some more populist economic messaging might just be where we're headed. Even if I don't like it. But like, I think there's ways to do that that are really productive. And I use the word productive advisedly. Say, I mean Kamala did the kind of build houses, but like, let's get some big visioning around building and around a new economic environment where like people feel excited and have somebody who can talk to them about that. Like, do you think that Kamala Harris, even though she ran a technically pretty good campaign, like, do you think that people felt a sense of like, I know where this country is going under this person. I feel like this person passionately, deeply cares about my well being and is going to figure out how to make this country be better for me. Like if, if Democrats don't figure out how to talk to non college voters about economic opportunity and that they just feel this sense that like no, they're for these like niche demographic groups. Like, that's what they're focused on. That's the fight that's a mistake.

[JVL]

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[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know. I'm in A bad place. So just, let's go with this. Like, which is worse. Like, what is worse? Like, Trump just being a total farce and having it all be a, like, reality show for morons and a clown show where he doesn't actually care about anything and he's just appealing to people's base instincts and his bigotry, and he doesn't actually care. And Elon and the fucking Jamie Dimon get a tax cut and, you know, a couple of random rapists get deported, but nothing really. Not really anything. And, you know, he tariffs a couple of things, like, for Elon's competitors, but not really anything else and whatever. And, like, he golfs and, you know, has parties in the White House with McDonald's, and everybody's like, yay, we are happy we got fooled by this person. We don't care. This is just our great clown country. Is that worse, or is Trump doing what he says? Worse? I guess the latter's worse. But it's fucking. It's a close call for me in this moment.

[Tim Miller]

Not for me. I don't want. I don't want Trump to do maximally painful things for all kinds of people just because we think they deserve it for voting for him.

[JVL]

But what would it mean if Trump doesn't do any of the things he promised and then all of the people whose promises he broke to them don't care? Because this is. Because, for me, this is what makes the joker that breaks my brain a little bit in how we're supposed to move forward. Because if that's the truth, then it turns out we are in full Neilism mode and nothing matters. There's all these conversations about, like, what Democrats need to do and how they could reassure people and meet people. It means that none of that actually matters, and I don't know how to exist in that space.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, well, hold on. Let's just. Let's just go through some of the things Trump said he was going to do. Like, if Trump says he's going to suspend the Constitution, okay, If he puts. If he puts Liz Cheney in front of a military tribunal, like, if these things happen, do you think that's okay? You think that's, like, it's worth it? If he deports 15 million people and puts them in camps and they live in camps on the border states, I don't want anything.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't want any of that to happen. But how does. How does this get improve if they're like, Donald Trump lives in a world where there's no consequences for his actions? The country lives in a world where there's no consequences for their actions. And how does this improve then? Fine, okay, then I guess we're just in a clown autocracy forever where we like exist at the whims of the best lying con man. Okay, I hear you, I hear you. I'm not saying I want 15 million people to be deported, but it's just like that's why it's a closer call for me, because I'm talking about what could be rather than.

[Tim Miller]

Well, let me give you a worse scenario. He deports 15 million people, people like that and people like that. And he's a lot more popular as a result of it.

[JVL]

Yeah, that's also very, very real possibility. All of these things, by the way, the subject that unites them is that we are finding out who, what Americans are. And it's really uncomfortable. Right, because we're either going to find out that. I mean, there's one possibility which is that he does all the things he promised and people rebel against it, which would be great. Fingers crossed. Right? That's the, that's the. There are two wolves inside of us and the good wolf wins. But the other two possibilities are that he doesn't do it and nobody cares or that he does it and they like it. And I, I just not feeling great about those odds because I'm feeling like I don't understand the country anymore. I feel like an old person. Right. This is what old, what old people do. They're like this, this isn't like what I remember when I was 20. The world is entirely different than it was 60 years ago and I don't recognize it anymore. And I kind of feel like that a little bit or a lot. That's all.

[Sarah Longwell]

I relate to that.

[JVL]

Do you, Sarah? I mean, do you. I guess this is my question. Do you think something has changed or you think like it's, it's all basically, this is how people always have been and we just, we lucked into not seeing it.

[Tim Miller]

No, I think that I felt maybe it's because I listen to so many voters that I just feel like much more prepared for this. I have just listened to, I mean, go back and listen to the episode that I did with Rui. People were really mad at this episode. Both at Rui. Like listen to the Hispanic voters.

[Sarah Longwell]

If you have to go back and listen to it would imply that I listened to it the first time, which I didn't.

[Tim Miller]

Sure. Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

For self preservation purposes.

[Tim Miller]

But this is the thing. Like, okay, if you've been self preserving and not listening to what these voters are saying. Like, it's all in there, and they've been saying it. And I, like. I don't think that they're all cartoon evil characters. And, like, there's. And the reason that I think, you know, 2022, this is one that I like. I think about a lot, the fact that. But it was so important that all those election deniers lose. And they did. But the downside of that was that there were a bunch of lessons that got learned that were a little wrong in that the electorate looks different in midterms than it does in a general election, and that Donald Trump appeals to a mass populace in ways that Democrats are struggling to do for a variety of reasons that are not because those people are bad people, but that they are just thinking about themselves, which is not a crazy thing to do. They are not thinking about democracy. And they were just like, this rich guy who says a bunch of things that I think are kind of funny but also insane, but I think he's going to, like, help me do better in my life.

[JVL]

Yeah. All right, listen, we got to wrap this up. It's been an amazing, magical secret show with all three of us here. I feel like we were all more off the leash than before. Guys, catch you next week.