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Tim Miller
Rural communities are being squeezed from every side, from rising health care costs to crumbling hospitals, from attacks on public schools to the fight for paid family and medical leave. Farmers and small businesses are reeling from the trade war.
Sarah Longwell
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Tim Miller
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Sarah Longwell
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Tim Miller
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JVL
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Tim Miller
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JVL
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Sarah Longwell
Always monitor traffic and weather conditions.
JVL
He was supposed to be anti war and he's supposed to lower prices and like make housing cheaper and he promised he was going to do it right away.
Sarah Longwell
How could they possibly have known that.
JVL
He couldn't do that? And I'm 20 years old and I don't know anything. And I thought he was going to be able to wave a magic wand and all of this was going to happen.
Sarah Longwell
Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We got a big show this week before we.
Tim Miller
Sarah seemed a little grumpy in the green room, so you got to watch out. We might have. We might have angry Sarah today. Who knows?
Sarah Longwell
I can't wait. Because I. I need some angry Sarah. But I also need some good Sarah. Sarah, your ears must have been burning yesterday when Mona and I were taping a show because we were talking about you. Because I needed some grace. I needed. I was looking for Queen Mona to help me love people. And she couldn't do it. And so I'm going to be coming to you to help me love people.
JVL
Okay.
Sarah Longwell
Before we get started, hit like, hit subscribe, follow the channel. That that stupid little, like button really matters. Please hit it. Please hit it. Great for us all Right. So we got some double taco. What do we call that? We call that a chalupa. Where Donald Trump.
Tim Miller
I took my daughter to the Taco Bell for the first time. It is disgusting. It is unbelievable how disgusting the Taco Bell is, I gotta tell you.
Sarah Longwell
Is it.
Tim Miller
Even my child didn't like it.
JVL
You should only consume Taco Bell drunk.
Tim Miller
She was like, is this gonna give me diarrhea? I was like, possibly.
Sarah Longwell
And now word from our sponsor, Taco Bell, Liv Moss. Okay, so over the weekend, we had Donald Trump taco on his deportations of migrants who work in farm communities and in the service industry for hotels. And then five days later, three days later, he then tacoed his taco with it. It's all very interesting, and I do feel like in a way, Trump has figured something out and it's something very dangerous and that he has figured out that he can just enforce this stuff in blue states and just hurt economies for Democrats and urban dwellers.
Tim Miller
He can't, actually.
Sarah Longwell
Okay, well, I would love to hear both of your thoughts with this. Tim, you look like you're fired up and ready.
Tim Miller
I'm ready. Well, I've got. I thought you're going another way. I think Trump does have an insight here that is politically dangerous for us who don't like him. But that's different from what you just laid out. So I'll get to that in a second because I want to just go right at this question. I feel like this is where the Tim is sometimes, right shirt needs to be taken out. I have been absolutely consistent on this. On every resistance show where they're like, where anybody wants to talk about how Trump is going to just not deport like his friends in red states and he's just going to go after blue states and he. It's not. It's fake and it's what, blah, blah, blah. And I'm just like, no, that's not how the. That's not how an immigration system works. That our system of justice is huge and complicated and there are a lot of people with individual incentives. And. And Trump has created an environment where every person's incentive is to be as cruel and fucked up to immigrants as possible. And that includes local sheriffs, includes U.S. attorney's office. I think I mentioned on this pod last week, my buddy was in a U.S. attorney's office. I guess I'll anonymize it. And it was like, they've added a whole floor to this U.S. attorney's office just for immigration purposes. Whoever is the head of that Office wants Stephen Miller to like him, might run for governor someday, wants to be promoted and could not be seen as a cuck on immigration. And so I'm sorry, if you put in a fucking cruel and brutal immigration regime from the top, then people are going to suffer all the way through. Now, it is true that you can focus your resources on blue states and you want to escalate fights with blue cities and blue states and Democratic politicians, they're going to do that. There'll be an emphasis for sure. And it's true that on an individual basis, can a couple of Trump's hotel buddies get a carve out? Sure. Is Mar A Lago going to be raided? No. Are there going to be, you know, a handful of big farmers who donate a bunch of money, who are able to fucking go behind the scenes and whatever, resell? Yeah, sure. Like, there'll be specific examples. But I was not surprised at all to see Trump back down on the hotel and ag thing. I thought it was just PR and him telling a couple of his buddies to calm down, he's not coming for them, and that the reality is they are 100% committed to the biggest mass deportation campaign in history. And the only way to do the biggest mass deportation campaign in history is to deport a lot of people who don't deserve it, who live in a lot of places, including red places, and who work in businesses, including businesses owned by Republicans and I. And that's going to continue. The pain will continue.
Sarah Longwell
Sarah?
JVL
Yeah, I mean, I just, I don't, I think that's right. And I also think, like, it's pretty easy to see how this happens, right? Like, he's. Immigration's his thing. It's what he goes, like when the economy. He's not. Like, he's sucking wind on the economy and he's sucking wind on foreign policy. Like, he goes to immigration, it is his go to move where his base will let him do the worst things. And I think what happens, right, is his rich friends do call him up and Trump is caught between two parts of himself, the part that loves to be like, oh, yeah, I can carve things out for you. Because I'm such. I'm Trump and I'm the king of all things. Except then somebody walks into his office when he does this. He's like, let's. I'm going to tweet this, right? We're going to, we're going to pull this back, right? I just, I, I got, gotten 10 phone calls from people I like and respect, and they say this is losing them money. And I didn't know. Who knew. Who knew that all these illegal immigrants were propping up these major economic factors in our country. I'm learning this for the first time. Putin's a bad guy, too. Did you know that? So Trump's learning.
Tim Miller
Crazy.
JVL
Yeah. So, you know, Trump's getting a little bit of an education in how these things really work. And Stephen Miller walks into his office and says, you cannot do the carve outs. That's not how this can work. Like, we have to go after all these places. It is where the illegal immigrants are. But I will say this. This is where industry, Industry believed that Trump was going to taco. Like, they're. They did believe. I heard people say this. They're like, yeah, he'll probably do some things for the cameras, but, like, he's not really going to go raid all the chicken plants and all the like, because it's. Everybody knows it's too important to our economy. And, like, this is the tension. The tension is we have built an economic model on top of migrant labor. And so if you deport them, you are going to crater certain industries. And, like, Trump is getting that education in real time. It's not. And so anyway. But, like, then he's also learning that you can't just carve out this or that. Like, he would love to just do it in blue states. He would love to just do it in people who are his enemies and not his friends. But Tim is right that, like, a little bit of that could happen, but not at a mass scale. Like, you're doing it or you're not doing it.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I don't know. I mean, there's only so many ICE agents, right?
Tim Miller
I mean, what's a. You think Greg Abbott's going to be like, no, we're not going to. And Ron DeSantis, you think they're going to get cucked and be like, no deportations in my state?
Sarah Longwell
No, I think they get the best of all worlds. See, this is the thing, right? He can say no carve outs, but do carve outs in practice. Right? That's the. What he shouldn't have done was said there were going to be carve outs. This was, you know, first rule of carve outs is you don't talk about carve outs. I mean, is Ron DeSantis going to be around, hey, I want more ICE agents blowing up the economy in Jacksonville. And. And I demand, Mr. President, that you say no. You just sit around and say, look at all those brown people getting hurt in California isn't that great. Doesn't it give you a chubby. And, you know, everybody here just move on, like, life is normal. Because that's what all this is anyway. It's not. It's not lived experience. People. People are mad about something happening somewhere else and they want to see.
Tim Miller
But that's not okay. That could. But that's not happening. And I was literally just talking to somebody yesterday in Miami who, who was like, man, the Cubans are a little shook right now because, like, there have been raids in some of these Cuban neighborhoods. And like, we've seen the news coverage of this, like here in Louisiana, I can't get a good answer for this. Trump's biggest donors company was rated. So, like, again, emphasis. Yes. They're going to emphasize la. I know, I'm for great. Awesome. Yeah, whatever. Like, not great for the actual people getting deported, but it's the business owners. That's an interesting. Hey, wake up. Call for you guys. But so, yeah, emphasis. I'm with you. But we're not really seeing it in practice, I guess.
Sarah Longwell
Well, this is a real question, though. We don't have any aggregated data on this, do we?
Tim Miller
That's true.
Sarah Longwell
Right. And, you know, we are really hostage to, you know, wherever there's cell phone camera video of something happening. Local news stories and. Yeah, local news stories. Or, you know, like the Tufts grad student. Right. If. If there weren't people there who had camera footage of that happening, that story wouldn't have happened. Like, and so we don't know what the numbers on this are really like. And I wonder, when will we get those numbers? Could you trust those numbers? Like, you know, who's collecting them? How is that working? Where are these people going? Yeah, but these are all, like, answerable questions. But, like, somehow, I don't know we're going to get them.
JVL
No, they want that number to be as big as possible. Right. Like the Trump and Stephen Miller want that. And so, like, they can't. This is why Stephen Miller's yelling at everybody and saying, you got to go to Home Depot. And the way that, you know about how serious they are or not is you look at how much money there is being allocated to ICE versus other. Right. Like, they have. They now have money and resources. It's becoming one of the bigger law enforcement agencies in the country. And so, like, they're going to go do. They're going to go look for people to round up. That's their job.
Sarah Longwell
It's really something. I.
Tim Miller
So here's the. Here's the thing I think Trump could get away with. And it's, it's somewhat related to another topic I know to get to Israel and Iran. But I'm interested in your guide. Both your take on the PR side of this is like, except for like the most strident people on any given issue, like there's a small percentage of obsessives about any issue, you know, in immigration, Mark Krikorian or whatever, you know, who has founded an anti immigrant nativist policy group. Or on Iran, you know, it's going to be Tucker obviously on one side and Nikki Hill on the other. Right? So we know who these people are. But except for like the 2% of most strident people, a lot of other people are just kind of taking this stuff in through their filters and through their bubbles. And Trump, I think, has more successfully than other politicians been able to kind of do stuff and then like get people on opposite sides of it to say he's doing what they want. And I think he's just very skilled at that. And so, like, I've heard this on immigration. I'll listen. Like I've been, you know, listening to the fucking tech bro podcast and they're like, see, Trump is pulling back on the anti, on the immigrant stuff that's hurting the economy. And then on the, like, right wings the ban on stuff. It's like, this is the most important thing Trump's doing. And on Iran, you saw this, it was like Ben Shapiro and Eric Erickson and those guys are like, Trump was a genius. He sat back and played good cop and they play possum and tricked the Iranians. And then you have like the nationalist guys, like the breaking points guys being like, well, Trump, you know, is look good. So far, Trump hasn't actually done anything there. And it was just the Israelis acting alone. Like, he just, he gets away with this better than other politicians do. And it's a tough nut to crack when you've got these like propaganda networks that no matter what you do, they're going to just say you're doing the best thing that. So I don't know what you guys think about that.
Sarah Longwell
Is he. So that's internal coalition management for sure. Externally, is he still. I mean, the, you know, we, we have some polling that we're going to talk about later. Maybe we should just talk about it now. It does look like he's in pretty precipitous decline. Like maybe his, you know, outside of the coalition or maybe that's just wishcasting on my part. I don't know, Sarah, what do you, what do you think?
JVL
Are we going to get into the polling now? I've got a, I've got a lot of feel.
Sarah Longwell
We don't have to, but like, you know, you, you're f. We'll talk about.
Tim Miller
The PR element of it and then we can talk about.
JVL
Yeah, well, I'll just. On the polling, I think what's happening is I actually, I don't think that he's in precipitous decline. I think that Trump was on a sugar high with a bunch of new voters in his coalition, many of whom were brought in to the coalition by some of the, like Tulsi Gabbard. No more wars. Like almost people who were more lefty. Right. Tim's point about how he is able to at least make everybody feel like he's on their side because Trump has created not just a media infrastructure around him, but an incentive structure for people to say Trump good. The thing Trump is doing is good. There is just a massive audience that wants to hear like if the mainstream media is saying thing Trump doing is bad, that created an entire market around think Trump doing is good. And so people now want to tell their audience that Trump is doing the thing that they like both the host and the audience. And so there's an enormous incentive structure for people to do that. And so. But I think on the polling, Trump came in higher than Trump had ever been. And I actually think what we've seen is not precipitous decline, but he never cracked 45% in his first term. And I actually think what we're seeing is water finding its level in a bunch of the people who gave Trump a new chance for whatever reason because they, they thought he was going to do something good for the economy or they thought he was going to be anti establishment and tear things down that they liked. Those people are dropped are the ones that drop first because they're new to the coalition. And so I actually think what we're seeing is him go back to the place where Trump was never very popular. He lived at 45%. And so for me, I'll say he's in precipitous decline when I see him in the Nate Silver aggregator start to be in the 30s and under where he lived in his first term.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I mean the, the precipitous is too much to say. I mean, there's been some decline. This is the, the weekly YouGov poll two weeks ago he was at minus 4 last week, minus 9 this week, minus 13. I mean, it's like you know, it's trending in a, in a direction and when you look at you know, Hispanic voters, he's now underwater by 29 points. It's like 24 points.
Tim Miller
And just to Sarah's point about the new voters and like what, who they are and what they're for different reasons and like there are a couple of specific categories of people for whom they have specific reasons. So.
JVL
And it's these people with the big shifts.
Tim Miller
Yeah, right.
JVL
It's young people, it's Hispanics, it's black men.
Tim Miller
Yeah, right. And so what are the young people?
Sarah Longwell
The Hispanic -39, a 44 point shift.
Tim Miller
What are the Hispanic people mad about? Well, seems probably the, the mass deportations of random of their homes and people charging into their homes and I again I don't, I think the Democrats probably overstated the idea that immigration is the most important issue to Hispanics and blah blah, blah. But like once you start doing raids in the neighborhood and you know Abuela is getting taken out in cuffs, like that's going to impact some, at least some percentage of, of Hispanic voters and young voters are stupid and thought that Trump was going to be anti war or whatever. Right. So like all this stuff is getting worse, not better globally and, and then the economy is like fine but not getting better. Right. Like it's not like it was a month ago where it looked like we might be on recession. He did taco on the economy stuff. But it's still, you know, if you're the type. I think it was one of your focus groups, Sarah. I did also listen to, I listened to one of your folks group competitors recently. I forget who, but I think it was in one of yours where some, where they were talking about going to this grocery store and just like shit is not any cheaper. Right. Like and there is like another category of people for whom that was kind of an expectation. Right. So like there are some distinct categories of people who are not like ideologically maga who have legit reasons to kind of come to bring, you know, to revert to the mean if you will. So I think that's pretty easy to highlight this.
Sarah Longwell
So voters 18 to 29 in the first week of his term. Trump was plus five with them. So he was 48, 43 approved. Disapprove. Yeah, he's now minus 39, 27 approved, 66 disapproved.
Tim Miller
Great job. Youth Appreciate it.
JVL
Yeah but that's them being like, I don't know, I voted to Tim's point like he was supposed to be anti war and he's supposed to lower prices and like make housing cheaper and he promised he was going to do it right away.
Sarah Longwell
How could they possibly have.
JVL
And I'm 20 years old and I don't know anything and I thought he was going to be to wave a magic wand and all of this was going to happen.
Tim Miller
He was the one that was going to end the Gaza war. Isn't it the Democrats, the war candidate. Anyway, I do, I would like to see our boy John Del Volpe and like a little deeper dive on the youth. You can. There's such a difference between like 18 to 22 year olds and 23 year olds or 29 year old, you know what I mean? The makeup of that 18 to 29 might matter. Like that might not be that relevant of a group. So anyway, so it might not be quite as dramatic as that though obviously there's been of late.
JVL
My, my only point is that I, I want to see, I, I want to see us get below that 45 mark. Like the place where Trump lived before. Getting him back down to that is I think kind of the easy part. The hard part is. Yeah, digging into that much more durable part. That was very sub 40.
Sarah Longwell
Right. Game down to 39, 37.
JVL
That's right.
Sarah Longwell
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Tim Miller
He's kind of like in the Elizabeth Warren Lane, if you will, in the primary.
JVL
Yeah, that's not normie to me. Just after.
Tim Miller
Yeah. Zoran's in the Bernie Lane, she's in the Elizabeth. He's. Lander's in the Elizabeth Warren Lane.
Sarah Longwell
I think that's right.
JVL
Okay.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
So he's at an immigration courthouse in lower Manhattan. He was trying to escort an immigrant out of the building. He was arrested. What happened? We have, we have good footage of this. There was a gaggle of men, none of whom, from what I could see in the pictures I saw, were wearing uniforms or badges who were trying to.
Tim Miller
A couple uniforms as a mix. Just because it was like. There's like a man in a dark spider man costume.
JVL
There's a guy in a full, full black like latex mask.
Tim Miller
Yeah, like a bank robbing.
JVL
How is it possible that that's allowed? I want to talk about this mask thing. I'd also, I, I have, I have some. There's some joke in here about the anti mask, right. Suddenly loving their ICE agents to be all masked up. One of them is wearing like a Covid mask so you can't see their faces. That is garbage. This is. We should be. People should be up in arms about this idea that these people are arresting people while you can't see their faces.
Tim Miller
Right. And they weren't providing a warrant either.
Sarah Longwell
So Lander, Brad Lander's asking them. He says, I'll let go when you show me a judicial warrant. He says his hand is on the, the body of the right. The. His right hand is on the man whom he's trying to protect. The Homeland Security claims that he assaulted their word law enforcement. There seems to be no evidence that he even touched law enforcement.
Tim Miller
He was being assaulted.
Sarah Longwell
I would say, sure looks like he's being assaulted. I mean, I just want to throw this open to you. I am significantly to the left of you guys on the question of law enforcement. I think you guys saw the picture that I put in our little show notes. You guys ready to come ride with me now, Sarah?
Tim Miller
Well, go to Sarah first because I don't know, this might be my leftiest issue, but go ahead.
JVL
I'm definitely not ready to ride with you yet because you have a very sort of broad anti copy bias.
Sarah Longwell
I do think not anti cop. I'm pro professional cop. I want the professionalization of law enforcement.
JVL
And I agree, I agree with that. I think that, I think that the being masked. I think that the level of. Now I will say here, here's where maybe I differ from you, I think optically. What happened to Senator Padilla last week, I think was so jarring because it's authenticity, the authenticity of what was happening. Like he was genuine. Like he was genuinely in the middle of a question. He was identifying himself and he gets like put on the ground. And it really is like sort of stomach turning to watch because it feels very like this is the stuff that doesn't happen here. I would say this one, the way that they are, the how aggressive they're being is gives a similar vibe of this makes me feel really uneasy. On the other hand, like he was doing a resisting thing, right? It was like it was a, it was a stunt to. Or like he was trying to get them to kind of. I think he was trying to get arrested professionally.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but he was trying to get professionally.
Tim Miller
He was asking him to show a warrant. That's a pretty common in any cops show that you watch. Show. Show me a warrant.
Sarah Longwell
Can I see your badge and a warrant, please, Officer? These aren't hard things to do.
JVL
Here's my only thing. Hear me, hear me clearly on this. I get a little nervous if it starts to feel stunty to people. Like as an optic thing right now, I think Democrats, I think they are doing exactly the right. Like I think the way Padilla handled what happened to him in terms of how he went out with a press conference, how he talked about it on the Senate floor, how he implored his colleagues. Like, you want to persuade people that the way that these people are behaving is absolutely wrong. And so I just sometimes, like there's a lot on the left where there's A lot of like sit ins or things that are kind of can, can be performative to the point where you lose people's sympathy. And so I just.
Tim Miller
You don't think this was one is that case, do you, Brad Lander?
JVL
No, I just said I want. I think so I'll say in both cases I, as an observer of this stuff, keep being. You keep seeing a video where like people are in the scrum and you have no idea how it started. And I find commenting on things like that a little difficult. You and I were on TV together when the Padilla stuff happened. And so Nicole Wallace was showing the thing over and over again. And I was just aware as I was commenting that like, I'm not sure of what I'm seeing, like, because we didn't see what happened beforehand. So when they were saying he assaulted the cops, clearly what's happening and what we're seeing, he is not assaulting them. He's trying to hold on to the guy. They're assaulting him. But like, you don't know what happened.
Tim Miller
Before that video of it. Wouldn't they show it? That's kind of how I feel about the Venezuelans. Okay, well if he's a fucking terrorist, then let me see it. Show me the. If he was the makeup artist to the tds, TDA stars. Let's see the text. Right. I don't, you know, and it's different.
JVL
When it's me wanting to be careful about this stuff.
Sarah Longwell
No, I understand. But when the law enforcement organizations are making charges like saying he assaulted law enforcement when they're big, that is different than like a person making stuff up. Right. Because you, you stand in for the state. And the whole idea is like we always hold the state to the highest standard and in fact what we've got instead is that the state gets held to the lowest possible standard. And, and it's the people who, you know, well, you have to prove that he never touched anybody. You know, like, well, if you go from this angle, his pinky touches the end. I mean, honestly, what I want, I just want them to be in fucking uniforms with visible badge numbers so that.
Tim Miller
There isn't any discretion about discretion who.
Sarah Longwell
Is legitimate, law enforcement or not, because otherwise somebody's going to get hurt. Right.
Tim Miller
Discretion though, like the Biden administration got killed by the. Right and showed a ton of discretion in all their political investigations. Donald Trump was never fucking manhandled. He was never thrown to the ground, he was never handcuffed. He was indicted four times. He was never perp walked. He had to do one mugshot, right? But he got to come at his own time with his own airplane. So there's discretion in all these cases. Like, there is this situation with Lander. The thing that. This is why this pisses me off so much. And I'm sympathetic. I understand cops have a tough job, okay? And so I do. I do understand that. But, like, there's no violent risk here. Like, sometimes. Let me just. To be generous to the cops, let me, like, go back to another situation. I feel like at times during, like, the heat of around Black Lives Matters, sometimes you're watching these videos and cops are acting very aggressive. And I was always instinctually, like, fuck these guys. Chill out. You know where I would be reminded by my cop friends, like, you don't know what you're going into when you open the door of a car and somebody. You know what I mean? Like, conceivably you could be in danger. And sometimes when you're. If a cop is scared, they're going to act a certain way, and that doesn't excuse all cop behavior. I just. I use that example to say that is not the case here. Or with. Or with Padilla. With Padilla. They're in a federal building, okay? Padilla was escorted in by an FBI agent. There's no worry that this old Latino man is going to, like, pull a gat, okay? He had to. Everyone has to come through security, get into that building. Same with the building in this immigration court. Like, they're an immigration court in New York. It is a elected official. They knew it was an elected official. Local reporter said they heard them talking between each other, saying, should we arrest the comptroller? So they knew he was an elected official. And the person, the electric official is protecting the migrant, he's not protecting, like, a murderer. He's protecting somebody that's about to get deported for immigration crimes, like, or immigration crime, right? Like, for breaking into the country. So it's not. It's not as if these police, these masked agents are, like, worried that there's a safety risk to the city, that they've got to detain this guy right now. Like, there's an easy case of discretion here. That's like, look, if the comptroller is doing this, let's pull him into a private room. Hey, sir. Then if Brad Lander starts acting crazy and starts screaming, it's like, okay, you know, calm down, sir. Like, here is a deportation notice for your guy here. He's got to show up to X place in three days, and if he doesn't show up. We're going to come to his house. Right. Like, they're like. And that's just one idea. There are a million different ways to handle this. And we now have a pattern of them deciding they want to do the roughest, most escalatory way possible. And that is what pisses me off about it.
JVL
Yeah. The thing about the escalating instead of de. Escalating, it doesn't. It constantly looks like they're not doing yet, like, regular police stuff where you are used to seeing police officers be kind of like, even in their de. Escalatory.
Tim Miller
Calm down, sir. Could you calm down, please?
JVL
Yeah, right.
Tim Miller
You know, I've gotten that once or twice in my teenage days, you know.
JVL
Yeah. And maybe you've seen more of it than I have. But, like, part of me was when I don't see the beginnings of these. I'm just so leery of, like, seeing snippets online about stuff without seeing the things that preceded them. And so if, like, they jump to that escalatory behavior that could be on the proceeding.
Tim Miller
This is my point, though. They're in a courthouse. There's no. There's no weapons. Like, what, they think Brad Lander is going to brandish a knife or that he pushed?
JVL
No, but if he. If he. If he. If he pushed, we would have seen that.
Tim Miller
You saw the picture of the scrum. I mean, everybody's got phones. There's 50 people there. If he was pushing a cop, we would have seen it by now. Again, I hear you on being cautious by now. Yeah, but my point is, like, we're in a federal building. The migrant in question showed up to his court date. This is not like the cops going into El Chapo's fucking lair to get people that are drug dealers that are hiding from them. Like, the dude showed up to his court hearing. He's with an elected official. Like, we can chill out sort.
JVL
So here's. Here's my only pushback to this, and I. And then I'll stop. Because it. For me, it is just. I. I also heard from some cops after, you know, I was on Nicole, and I was like, I was very freaked out by what I saw from Padilla. And I also didn't understand why Kristi Noem, who I was quite certain would recognize the senator of the state that she's in, who'd been trying to get a meeting with her. Right. And so I had said some things, but then I heard from some people I respected who are like, hey, if you're on a detail Protecting like the Department of Homeland Security head. And somebody starts walking toward her at a time when like, those cops are going to behave that way. And then also I was like, yeah, okay, fine. In the room, let's say like, okay, they get him out of the room, though, and now they're dragging the guy to the ground.
Tim Miller
Yes.
JVL
And their point is like, what was different? He was like, well, it's different people outside the room. So if all you see is your people, right? You're not in the room, you see your people wrestling some guy out and you don't know what happened in the room, right? You're just going to operate from like, okay, we've got somebody who is resisting and we need to get them to the ground. Now, I'm not saying I agree with that. And actually I did a lot of pushing back in these conversations. I will say it made me think about it from a slightly different angle. And all I'm. All I'm saying this was out of.
Tim Miller
The blue in 2007. I would be much more sympathetic to that. The DHS's behavior. This is not. That's not the only data point, I guess, would be my point.
JVL
So. And I guess my response is they are escalating everywhere. And because they're doing that, I. My only thing is, and JBL and I talked about this in the secret pod, JBL is kind of like, shouldn't Newsom kind of go get in their face? And I think that there are ways in which people can sort of go on offense here. I just don't want it to be. Get too, like, I. I don't want it to start looking like a stunt that everybody's trying to, like, get in front of cameras doing this.
Sarah Longwell
Can you imagine if the U. S. Capitol police had taken these approaches to their work on January 6th? How many people would have died? Right? I mean, the Capitol police did an amazing, amazing job not killing people and de. Escalating. Even in this, you know, there's that. That famous. Was it Harry Dunn? Was he the one in the stairwell where there are guys charging and he is just like funneling the crowd around, right? He is not drawing his weapon and telling, respect my authority, you're not following my lawful orders, I'm gonna. Right?
Tim Miller
And the very same people that are doing this thug shit now were out there calling the Capitol police crybabies and talking about how inappropriate the way they treated what's her name, who. Who Ashley grabbed, who crashed through the window. So it's just like, fuck these guys, I guess, is my Other point, I'm like, sorry, they have no credibility.
Sarah Longwell
Again, what I want is professional policing. The Capitol Police are. Have always been like a really. People who know in D.C. like, no, that is a very professionalized group. FBI agents tend to be a highly professionalized group. What we have seen of ICE suggests very unprofessional behavior.
Tim Miller
I want to add one other point to this again, if it was one off with Padilla, but now we have New Jersey, we have Lander. I had Ben Rhodes on this morning, and he said something to me that really struck me because he's written a lot about authoritarians in other countries, regardless of what you think about his foreign policy views and what America should do. Like, he's met with dissidents and knows them. And he's like, people say, we're on the way to Hungary. And, you know, in some ways, Hungary, you know, Orban has taken power of institutions more successfully than Trump. But he's like, in this way, he's like, orban isn't. There's no ICE police arresting Orban's opponents in Hungary. He's like, orban's military is not in the street of the democratic town in Hungary. And he's like, so it's just in that. And I thought that was a pretty striking comment to, like, think about it that way. That, I mean, we'll see. Like, maybe it stomps now, but it's a pretty alarming series of data points between New Jersey, California, militarization of police, and now deaths in New York.
Sarah Longwell
It's not great.
Tim Miller
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Sarah Longwell
Can we talk about Zoron?
Tim Miller
I'd love to.
Sarah Longwell
So yesterday on FY Pod.
Tim Miller
I wouldn't love to.
Sarah Longwell
Best FY Pod. No, you don't want that.
Tim Miller
Maybe I think Harry Sisson. Talking about Harry Sisson, sex with the girls and the. And the. And that drama was probably the best one. He was sexting girls on Snapchat and that created a stir on the Internet. We hashed that out with him.
Sarah Longwell
I enjoyed yesterday. I mean, did that episode have good twink, bad twink in it?
Tim Miller
It did not.
Sarah Longwell
Because I think the good twink, bad twink dynamic was really quite something.
Tim Miller
Thank you.
Sarah Longwell
So Tim had Zoran Mamdani on the show, the darling of the left who is running second in the Democratic primary and has, I guess, an outside chance to pull off an enormous upset. He's 33. He's a Democratic socialist, very charming, very personable. Great hang. I'd love to hang out with him.
Tim Miller
Great hang.
Sarah Longwell
I don't think he should be mayor. That's okay. I am just curious as to what you're. I want to have like a discussion on the merits of Zoran first and then a meta discussion about the reaction to the show afterwards. And I guess, Sarah, do you want first dibs here at the Pinata?
JVL
No, I think Tim needs to start and maybe set it up.
Tim Miller
Sure. I will save the meta, which is what I would like to talk about, which is the meta discussion, which has drove me insane. And I gotta tell you, there are certain issues that are tough to bring up on podcasts. These days because there's a category of people that are sure that they're right and that makes it challenging to get into nuance. But I'll get to that in a second. As for Jaran himself, I'll say this. Well, first it was such a Rorschach test which I'm really practicing my interview skills and I think that's an interesting challenge for me to kind of learn how to do it. And so please take this humble brag in the spirit of which it's intended, which is that I'm trying to get better. It was a real Rorschach test like which made me feel like I did a good job. Like a lot of like I had people reply to me like man, that made me like him better and people be like man, he sucks actually and like man, he's like. So I heard a very wide range of responses to his, his responses to my questions. Me personally, I, I also find him, he's charming, he's a good hang. I don't think he's as handsome as other people say. But that's, that's neither here nor there. Here are the two positive things I can say. I genuinely want people to be excited about non maga politicians and I think that the Democrats have really struggled to generate politicians to generate excitement and politics is about exciting people's part of politics and, and it's possible that the Democrats will have to find somebody that is not, does not have my ideological priors to excite the broad Democratic base. And I'm, I just, I'm resigned to that. Maybe not. Maybe they'll be very exciting Tim Miller style candidate. I hope so. But I think it's good and I don't want to yuck people's yum if they're very excited about something. I think that that's better than apathy and like nihilism which I see a lot of or in our circles. So that's the one nice thing I'll say he's doing what we're. What I, I shouldn't say we. What I am asking Dems to do go going forward which is he came onto my podcast. I very, I was very explicit them about my views. They're like what do you want to talk about? And I was like my first question is going to be to try to convince me to rank him fifth because that's the best he could possibly get for me. Like so they knew that. They knew it was going to be kind of goofy because we had the, you know, the Gen Z vibe on it. And he did that. And he was. And he was natural and he was like, he was able to kind of hang and go back and forth. And I think that going forward, Democrats should do that. We invited Andrew Cuomo, who is fucking awful across every metric, by the way. Like, as a governor, he was awful. As a manager, he seems like a bad person. We invited him on. He's not doing any of those interviews and I don't think he should be rewarded for that. So that is the other positive thing I'll say as far as, like, whether to be a good mayor. It's. I mean, I felt like. Felt like he was trying hard to try to find things to appeal to our folks on. Like, there's lip service to Yimby stuff. There's lip service to cutting red tape. There's lip service to making government work. But like listening to the preponderance of the interview, did it seem like somebody that was really going to fight the interest groups, the lefty interest groups to get any of that stuff done? Not really. To me, like, I gave him a chance to criticize Brandon Johnson, who's the mayor of Chicago, who's doing an awful job. Everybody hates him, basically. He didn't do it. I asked him to try to distance himself from the more extreme parts of the protesters. Didn't really do that. So that part left me less optimistic about him as mayor. So that would be what I would say about Zoran. It's a. It's a shitty situation. I guess the last thing I'd say about New Yorkers, because I don't like the idea that you have to choose. Like, if it gets me back to like the binary choice. Sometimes I feel like I'm in like the anti. Anti place where it's like, where people. Where I was always saying people, it is a binary choice. You have to choose. It's either Trump or whatever and Zo run. People use that as like, it's a binary choice. It's either him or Cuomo. And like there's something to be said for that, I guess. I don't. I don't live in New York, so I don't have to make the binary choice. I'd rank Zellner Myri first, but that's just me, so that's my take.
Sarah Longwell
Can I make a limited case for why I think people are excited for him?
Tim Miller
Sure.
Sarah Longwell
I don't love it myself, but before we throw to Sarah, the rest of the field is so underwhelming and underwhelming from like, you Know the formerly Democratic incumbent mayor who's, who should be in jail, but it wasn't because he sucked up to Donald Trump, to Andrew Cuomo, who's a creep and incompetent. Having a guy who seems like on a personal level is not corrupt, who has a positive vision, like not a loves New York. Who, who says like, oh, we can make things better. Not like, hey, we're just going to mitigate harm. We can, we can, we can do better. I can see where that's powerful, right? I mean you look at, you say yes, can't we, can't we try to have nice things? Can we try to have nice things, please?
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
And I get why people would.
Tim Miller
He started with that with me when I was asking like, can't we make the metric? Can't we make the subway better? Can't people have free buses? Why not? Like that's, that's doable. Why we have to listen to people who are. No, because we have a corrupt establishment that can't do anything.
Sarah Longwell
There's something to feel where I fall apart is very few of the things he were taught he was talking about with you seem practical. Like I am sorry. The legacy. New York is like the largest legacy system of any kind in America. The city of New York is. And in order to do anything, forget trying to make things better, just in order to keep things going as they are with, you know, duct tape and chewing gum wrappers requires kind of a lot of expertise. And like, you just have to understand the system and have how it actually works now like having been in the state assembly for five years is simply not adequate preparation to understand like, you know, you're going to walk in there, this, this guy, if he were mayor would spend the first two years just learning how everything works.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
And I, this is going to sound like, you know, anti young like I guess, but it is like a really hands on job. It's a really hands on job and it really helps to have, I don't know, at least a decade's worth of experience with the system itself and understanding what it is and how it works to be able to do it. And that said, I would be all for rolling the dice on a guy like Zoran in like in a normal political environment. Hell, again, if it was 2004 and I lived in New York, I might have been like, and this was the field, right? And then I would be like, yeah, what the hell, you know, you give it a try. If worse comes to worse in four years, then so be it. The problem is that if he's elected mayor and something bad happens in New York under his watch, that's going to be used against Democrats for the next four years.
Tim Miller
Oh, yeah, yeah.
Sarah Longwell
And so there is a national political downside to Zoran winning. There's upside, too. Right. Like, you know, maybe he's like a mayor and he's great. Maybe he's the new LaGuardia or something, but I think that the odds of that are reasonably low. And, and if he, if he isn't, if things are bad, then that's going to be used to hurt Democrats across the country. And that worries me, Sarah.
JVL
I don't care for this young man in the least. I would rank.
Sarah Longwell
Not even personally.
JVL
I would leave him off my ranking, actually. No, I think that somebody who talks about globalizing the antifada and does it in a charming way. I don't think there's anything worse, actually.
Tim Miller
Well, he didn't, did you listen to it? Yeah, I mean, I asked him about it. He didn't.
JVL
Yeah.
Tim Miller
And he didn't, he didn't bring it up.
JVL
And I, no, you, you asked if that kind of language made him uncomfortable.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
JVL
And then he went on a thing about how. No, this is actually just about, this is just, it was. The Holocaust Museum is now actively disputing this, but he went on this thing about how they, they changed the meaning of what antifada means. It just means struggle and whatever. And I'm like, that's not what people, that's, people don't know the, the, the, the, that didactic, you know, clarification. They, they think this is about, like, the destruction of Israel, you know, And I thought that, that, that admission from him, I hope, is good to know from people. I mean, and that's just on top of the fact that every idea he has to me is like, not just a young guy who's a little inexperienced. Like, they're idiotic. Like, idiotic. Like, we're gonna federalize the grocery stores. And like, the, the him, him moving into the abundance stuff is like, clearly him having, like, oh, I'm just gonna change my entire frame. I'm just gonna bounce around. Like, I, I, I just thought he, he went from somebody who was silly that no one should take seriously to somebody who was saying things that I actually thought were quite dark, dangerous and anti Semitic. And yeah, didn't, didn't care for him one bit. And him being a great hang matters very little to me.
Sarah Longwell
Well, I'm not saying it matters to me in terms of like, yeah, voting.
Tim Miller
In Politics, I mean it matters, I guess it does actually matter to the Democrats. Put forth people that are good hangs. Cuz they've pretty much failed to do that for about a decade and a half now. So I think that's been. And that's led to two Donald Trump presidencies.
JVL
So anyway, if their ideas are toxic, they have toxic ideas.
Tim Miller
I'm just talking about the value of it. And I do think, I mean again, I just said I don't like Zoran and wouldn't and would, would not, he'd not be on my ballot. So I don't really know what the hostility is. So I hate to have to defend him. But like, and he did say that I asked him directly about the grocery stores and all the things you don't like about him that I asked him about directly. I asked him about the grocery stores and he was like, well it's a five store pilot and if it doesn't work, then it doesn't work. And I was like, okay, great, that's not going to work. But is a five star pilot that big of a deal in the context of the fact that the city is already subsidizing other fucking grocery stores and giving, you know, private grocery store owners $100 million to subsidize their shitty grocery stores? Could we run them better? Should we try that? I don't know. That's, that's not a crazy idea. I don't know. The government probably shouldn't be subsidizing grocery stores at all. But he didn't say we're federalizing the grocery stores. And also on the globalizing the intifada answer, which was awful. He began by talking about how Jewish people feel scared. I'm against anti Semitism, da da da da. I mean, again, his answer was really bad. Brad Lander was given the same question a couple of weeks ago by Josh Kroshauer, answered it much better. So he should have been prepared for the question since it was asked at a, at a different, whatever you call them, not a debate but a forum. And Brad Lander gave a much better answer a couple weeks ago. So he should have been prepared for it. It was a bad answer, but I.
Sarah Longwell
Was more bothered by like when. So he talked about redoing the way in which zoning decisions are made right and zoning decisions are now like really disaggregated across the city so that like every alderman or whatever has like, you know, the power to set zoning rather. And he's like, yeah, we should change that so we could have a citywide zoning policy. I was like, okay, sure. Who do you think is going to give up their power over local zoning? Like what? You know, like, how. How do you get from here to there? You have this system which affords enormous power to the most local politicians, and it would be beneficial to the city for those politicians to not have that power. But you're going to persuade. How do you get from there to there? Like, on the policing stuff, I am so in favor of taking social services work out of the hands of police for all the reasons that. That Mandani said. I think they all make total sense. It's very expensive. How are you going to pay for that? Yeah, you know, like, those are like.
Tim Miller
They'Re doing an Oregon jbl. It's working.
Sarah Longwell
No, it's like, yeah, they're doing in Oregon. And I was like, I'm sorry. Like, you could fit Oregon into one. Like Queens. Right? And anyway, so I just heard that. I just thought, this is not going to work.
Tim Miller
He's also running again, though, the Cuomo thing. Cuomo won't come on the podcast. I have plenty of questions for him to give him opportunities. For the folks that are very excited about Andrew Cuomo and are upset about my platforming, we've asked Andrew Cuomo to come on the podcast. He said no, he won't do it. He won't do any interviews. He sued to see the gynecological records of the women that he assaulted. And he's also a shitty fucking mayor. He was the governor. I mean, he's the worst governor in the country. Maybe on COVID 19, besides DeSantis on the long end of the. On the long tail, DeSantis might have ended up being worse. He's the worst governor in the country. And he doesn't. He's also not like a not good on the ideas of cutting red tape or reforming the government or whatever. And he's like a machine fucking hack liberal that we hated our entire lives. So anyway, it's not a great choice. And I just think that, like, I get a little frustrated with the people that are like, stridently in my mentions on one side or the other, both being like, how could you fucking platform this guy that might be mayor of New York? And on the other side, it's like, how could you not rank him over Cuomo? It's like, I don't know. Both choices really fucking suck, actually. And so there's. It's a tough choice.
Sarah Longwell
The guy who founded we should have vigilante organization.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
Like this. You know, it's not even like, you could say, oh, and the Republicans have, like, you know, a local businessman who has no chance to win, but, you know, he's sensible like the Republicans. Just an insane talk radio host slash vigilante.
Tim Miller
Yeah, right.
Sarah Longwell
So the whole thing is really, really bad and a sign of enormous political dysfunction totally across the board in New York City.
JVL
Yeah, I think that was my. My. One of my big takeaways was like, New York is really screwed because I don't. My. My disdain for Zoron is, like, completely independent of my political judgment around, like, the race. Like, it's not because I. I don't like him because I really like Cuomo. Like, no, I think Cuomo is a huge scumbag. And I actually think that, like, the only good choices are people who are being. Are polling at 2% that no one seems even. No one even seems to have looked at or cared about, which is very disappointing. But. And I think we should have the platforming conversation because now that I've said my piece about how I feel about him as a person, I'm going to defend Tim, talking to him.
Sarah Longwell
Great.
Tim Miller
Well, before you defend me, which I appreciate that, let me just give people the context. Let's just say anytime the issue of Israel and Gaza comes up, there's a very intense response from people on both sides. And I get both sides. Yeah, I too, sorry to do the both sides.
Sarah Longwell
We are a bunch of neocon shills who don't care at all about dead children and do nothing but support Zionism no matter what. And then.
Tim Miller
And I mention this in this context because it's fun. This is funny to me and frustrating, but also funny. It relates to the platforming conversation, which is like, I will mention that I have concerns about the humanitarian issues in Gaza, and that does no good for me because my inbox then gets flooded with pro Gaza activist types who are upset I don't talk about it more or that my language was not perfect with regards to the scale of the destruction. And then I also simultaneously get messages from my pro Israel friends who are mad I even mentioned that and Talked about how October 7th was so horrible they should get to do whatever they want. And it's like, you know, so there's no winning with people who are very. Who have very strong views on either side of that issue. And I think it's a very complex issue. I laid this out at the beginning of the Zoram podcast, actually, like, for like, five minutes, how, like, this is an issue where I'm very torn in a Lot of ways. And I have humanitarian sympathies and blah, blah. Anyway, you can go listen to that if they want. Now, specifically about Zoran, the most insane reaction of all has come from the pro Israel, right, The folks that we used to be aligned with who are kind of Trump, cautiously pro Trump, whatever, reluctant Trumpers, the reluctant Trump crowd and the pro Israel, right, who simultaneously are spamming me about how I'm terrible for platforming Zoran sounding like the most insane far left woke libs on campus who are like, you can't invite anyone onto my campus who has a, who has a wrong talk. You know, so it's like these free, like stifling speech, anti speech, like, you know, attacks for even having Zoron on and then simultaneously using the conversation for their ends. To suppose Zordon, which is, I was like, this is negatively polarizing me into being pro Zordon. And it's like, it's sort of like me giving them a hand job. I was like, I gave you guys a hand job with this question about globalizing the Intifada. And I pressed him on it. I didn't just give him a question, I pushed him on it. I gave you guys a handjob and your response is, fuck you, you didn't give me a blowjob. And I'm like, no, fuck you, I gave you a hand job. What do you want? And so anyway, that I have, I have a broad thoughts on who I will and won't platform. But it is, I feel like it's very childish and absurd the, the idea that you should not platform the guy that is the second most likely person to be the next mayor of New York City and ask him hard questions.
JVL
So, so let me defend you by pushing back on, on your, your own framing about what you did. Platforming is what Ben Shapiro did with raging anti Semite Candace Owens. That is platforming. Platform is when you, you take the Daily Wire and you help build an audience for somebody like Candace Owens. That's platforming. What you did, as best I could tell, was an interview. Now people interview all manner of people with whom they have no intellectual fidelity. Right? They're not you, you, you, you interview people because they are somebody of repute or not repute, right? Yeah. They have news, news value and you want to know more about them. And so you, your particular kind of analogy aside, what you were doing is conducting an interview in which you asked a difficult question. And I thought you, my. I struggled with Cam, but Tim was behaving in an incredulous Way. Right. He's asking a difficult question. He's not just like accepting it, he's pushing back. And it's the reason, as Tim notes, that now everybody has this soundbite from him basically giving some mealy mouthed garbage answer on what globalized the intifada means. And I think for me that was disqualifying for him. And I agree with Tim, sort of like, you're welcome. People who want a hammer to hit this guy with. And so the idea that they're, they're.
Tim Miller
Using the hammer, they're hitting me.
JVL
Yeah, well, that is, but, but that is, this is to me the difference between interviewing and platforming are two different things. And platforming is someone who like maybe doesn't have a huge following or people don't know or you don't have that doesn't necessarily have news value and you're elevating that person. Like Tucker Carlson platforms, people random like.
Tim Miller
Historian that nobody'd ever heard of who thought Churchill was the, was the bad guy in World War II. It's like, yeah, okay, I wouldn't have him on the pod. It's like, doesn't make a lot of sense to bring in random niche historians who think Hitler was great.
JVL
People who had Nick Fuentes, you know, and like Donald Trump having Nick Fuentes to dinner at Mar A Lago and giving him credibility is what platforming is. Taking somebody who is, could very well be the next mayor of New York. This is where I defended Kaitlan Collins when she had the, the thing with Trump, the town hall. Right. Like I was against them stacking it with Trumpers in the audience. But like what was she supposed to do? The guy was very likely going to be one of the top nominees for president. Like you have to interview people and this, this idea that people are against having the conversations is ridiculous. And also is, is sort of not what the, it's the right behaving. Like they always say the left behaves, which is like, oh, snowflakes. You can't take a tough conversation where we disagree. Like, okay, like, no, he had a tough conversation and made it clear he disagreed with him.
Tim Miller
So yeah, great. Tough.
JVL
Seems like an interview. That's my defense.
Tim Miller
Thank you. I appreciate that defense. And I also, I don't know. Jbl your thought? And sometimes we've disagreed a little bit on platform. I mean like my view on the whole conversation is a deplatforming random people. I'm for like Milo got really hurt by being deplatformed. That was an example of it working there was a big discussion back and forth. I think JV and I were on opposite sides of this one about like the Trump deplatforming, like that didn't work out. Turned out that maybe helped Trump. Actually, in retrospect, there's a million. There's a huge gap between Trump and Milo and there's maybe there are some edge calls. But like anybody that is influential already, like, you're not platforming them by giving them a challenging interview. You're engaging with them and challenging their views, like, that's fine. And we should be able to do that in a liberal democracy and in a society and on this pod and on a podcast. I like my. My rule for the podcast, which is maybe unique, separate from the question of platforming, is I only want to have people on to tell me what they really think. So that means that I won't. There are certain people I won't platform because they're full shit, right? And I'm like, that's. I don't. I don't get much value in that. That. That over indexes currently on the right for a lot of people who, when they do interviews, they pretend they suspend disbelief to make arguments on behalf of Trump that they don't even believe. I don't see much point in engaging with that. I'm not going to do it. But if you really believe what you're saying. And by the way, there are a few people on our side that I'm not having on the podcast because I feel like they fail that captain. And if you believe what you're saying, I want to have more disagreements. It's absurd to have on what I'm supposed to only have on Tom Nichols. Over and over again comes a pretty boring podcast. I gotta do it every day.
JVL
What the fuck do you people want to.
Tim Miller
Tom.
JVL
Interesting.
Tim Miller
Love Tom, he's great. But it's just like for my own sanity, I require having people on the pod with a wide array of views I disagree with. I wish more right wing people would come on. I've invited every single Republican member of Congress onto the podcast several times. None of them want to do it, you know, because they. They can't like handle the smoke. So. Which takes me back to the one compliment, Alfred Zoran, which is he was willing to do it eyes wide open of the fact that I am not a fan of him and was not gonna be. Was. He was not even possibly going to be in the top four on my imaginary ballot. So there you go. I don't know. JBL does. That was There any of that you disagreed with in the platforming conversation?
Sarah Longwell
No. None. None. So what my and I, you know, when we have talked about platforming, typically you and I have been on the opposite sides. I don't really think we're on the opposite sides. I think we're mostly aligned. My concern is always allowing something to be turned into propaganda. And so I feel like those of us who own platforms like the Bulwark have an obligation to prevent what we do from being turned into propaganda. And so that's why I wouldn't have Scott. What's his face from CNN on, because Scott Jennings, because as you said, he'll just never say something honest. You just know that he's working in bad faith. Why present him? I would not have done Donald Trump on to do a live conversation. Right. Because live, this was my thing about the town hall. Right. Like, I thought, like, you got to have him on tape. Right. You have taped interviews so that you can, like, do what Jonathan Swan did, like have all the receipts with you. Right. It's why I chafe a little bit at the New York Times sending Ross DoubleThat to interview JD Vance, because Ross is just there to, to slobber all over JD's knob. Like, there's no, you know, that, that is essentially just propaganda. There's almost no news value going on in the two of them having a conversation. But that's not what you did. And I, I really don't understand legitimately, I don't understand why anybody would be upset. Because if, if Zoran had gone on the, the Hannity show and gotten pinched with that question, all of the people who are mad at you would be thrilled that Hannity got him. Oh, yeah, right, sure.
Tim Miller
No, it's about me. Yes, it's about me. It's about me.
Sarah Longwell
It is.
Tim Miller
It's about the bulwark.
Sarah Longwell
It is about the bullwork.
Tim Miller
It's like a former family fight, whatever, which I don't really care about.
Sarah Longwell
So it's not really a good faith. Like, it isn't actually about platforming. It's not actually about any of that stuff.
JVL
Again, that's why I don't platform him. You conducted an interview.
Sarah Longwell
Right. And so that's why I don't really take any of those criticisms seriously. Right. These people should.
Tim Miller
Yeah, I don't either. I do think it's funny though.
Sarah Longwell
Got this guy to reveal himself.
Tim Miller
Yeah, I don't take it seriously either. But I do enjoy to mocking them about the fact that they're like, literally using the most cringe Rhetoric of the most far left woke height of the, you know, height of the social justice movement. Type rhetoric about how you can't talk to anybody who has a bad thought.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
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Sarah Longwell
All right, listen, we are running super long.
Tim Miller
Are we?
Sarah Longwell
We're only halfway through the show map. So I'm going to, we have one topic left. I'm going to cut everything out of one topic. You guys choose Iran or Mike Lee?
Tim Miller
I mean I've covered Iran a lot and I had Ben Rhodes on today. I'm going to have se cup on tomorrow. Very different views on Iran. We'll discuss with both of them. And so I'm fine. And I've also talked about Mike Lee a lot. So I guess Sarah, this is your Sarah, you pick.
JVL
Oh, you know, the Mike Lee thing probably has been overly hashed over. I'm happy to do Iran because I think that the inner MAGA crackup is pretty, pretty interesting and a rich vein of discussion. But if I could just say real quickly. And also I did Mike Lee on TV yesterday, but I just want to say screw Mike Lee. I, I'm glad. Yeah, you're a trash person. And this is what Donald Trump has. I just, I just hate the way people have decided to be this awful in the face of tragedy. I just really, this is the stuff that, that, that I, I lament more than anything. And I think when JVL and I have our arguments about voters and what are, I mean like our elected officials, the United States Senate, United States Senator behaving this way and setting this kind of example, I don't know, it is just so rotten. Also when I was on TV yesterday, the only reason I want to say is that I miss named Tina Smith, Senator Tina Smith who is called. No, I just, I just kept. You know why Tina Brown. No, Tina Peters is like from 2022, the crazy right wing person who was like got arrested for messing with the machines.
Tim Miller
Colorado. I wrote a great story on that. You have a Grand Junction and for.
JVL
Whatever reason Tina Peters is locked in my brain. And so I kept saying Senator Peters and at some point Nicole was like Senator Tina Smith. Like I don't know who Longwell's talking about.
Tim Miller
Gary Peters. There was also, there's also Gary Peters.
JVL
Yes, I was doing something in my brain but a good on her. Good on her for walking up face to face and saying hey, that was a miserable, wrong, indecent thing to do and you should knock it off. And it, it, he deleted them. And I think it shows the value of the direct confrontation in a way that is the, in the vein of the. Have you no decency, sir? So good on Her.
Tim Miller
Anyway, sorry, now you have to go on Iran too. It's back to you. Which, which part of the.
Sarah Longwell
Where my neocons at?
JVL
I just want to talk about the Tucker Cross and Ted Cruz interview. Like the two minute snippet that's out there.
Sarah Longwell
Okay, go ahead. I have not seen it.
JVL
What?
Sarah Longwell
I haven't.
JVL
This is, this is, this is great content from two people who are horrible in their own ways.
Tim Miller
You have to choose.
JVL
I won't choose.
Tim Miller
You have to choose between Cuomo and Zoran and between Ted Cruz and Tucker. Actually, you've got to rank all four of them right now.
Sarah Longwell
Rank, binary choice.
Tim Miller
Go. Sarah Longmore Putting this on TikTok ranked choice voting Zo Ron, Cuomo, Tucker and Ted Cruz.
JVL
Cuomo Cruz, Zoron Tucker.
Sarah Longwell
Wow.
Tim Miller
I'm. See, this is why I'm a good interviewer. I can't believe I got you to do that. Right there.
JVL
That is. Yeah, but that is, it's like being like, yeah, I don't know, this is a, you know, the sandwich or chew on glass thing and maybe drink Drano is number three. Like, whatever these are. It's to me, these are all the worst types of people. But the, but the funny thing is that Tucker, watching Tucker do his insane Tucker thing where he came in loaded with. I'm going to quiz, I'm gonna quiz Senator Cruz. So he's like, you want a bomb? Iran? How many people live in Iran? And Cruz is like, I don't know. He's like, what, you want to destroy this country and you don't know the population of Iran? And then he's like, what is the. What are the major sex S E, C T. What are the. What's. What are the sect that make up the. And he's like, I, I don't. There's. And you could see Ted Cruz kind of being like, there's, well, there's Persians and like. And he's like, and, and Tucker's like, no. And it is like that he humiliates Ted Cruz, but also humiliates him in.
Sarah Longwell
A way that you do this on Fox once.
JVL
It was like a pop quiz of things that are. To be fair, who knows how many people are in Iran? I don't know. I guess I don't normally expect Ted Cruz to know, but it was, it was, it's a good. I can't wait to watch it at 2, actually, because it, it, it does. It will embody the two very distinct sectors of maga. The Tucker. Steve Bannon MAGA that is like and, and this is why Tulsi came into the the coalition, right Is the the end forever wars types. Tucker Carlson, who got his start at the neocon Weekly Standard where JBL also came from and our Bill Crystal Tucker Carlson is now no forever wars. No wars in general. We shouldn't do anything that's not in America's interest. Caught between like long standing Republican canon of Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. A lot of these hostile Mideastern Middle Eastern countries that are trying to get nuclear weapons cannot have them. And like we gotta, we cannot, we have to do something, we have to support Israel, whatever. But also the other part was Tucker got Ted Cruz and Ted was like, we are taking out Iran. He's like, are we at war? Are we breaking news? Are we at war? And he's like, well Israel, that's just like, well Israel's taking out, right? He's like, well you said we, we said he's like we're supporting Iran. And Tucker's like oh, so we are at war. We are helping. It was like, it is, it is, it is batshit crazy. And I am gonna get some popcorn and watch it. This show is sponsored by ExpressVPN. Going online without Express VPN is like leaving your laptop unattended at the coffee shop while you run to the bathroom. Don't do that. Most of the time you're probably fine. But what if one day you come out of the bathroom and your laptop is gone every time you connect to an unencrypted network in CAFES, hotels, airports, etc. Your online data is not secure. Any hackers on the same network can gain access to and steal your personal data, passwords, bank logins, credit card details, etc. It's super secure. It would take a hacker with a supercomputer over a billion years to get past ExpressVPN's encryption. So that's probably not going to happen. It works on all devices, phones, laptops, tablets and more. So you can stay secure on the go. Safeguarding personal data. And personal security is never far from my mind and it shouldn't be far from yours. This is the kind of thing that feels really easy to ignore until you get burned. Secure your online data today by visiting expressvpn.com thenextlevel that's ex P R E S S V P N dot com the next level to find out how you can get up to four extra months free. ExpressVPN.com the next level the Tulsi subplot.
Tim Miller
Is the better one for me. Okay, have you seen the Politico story from last night?
JVL
Yeah, I have. It's great.
Tim Miller
It is really delicious. And it was like they, Tulsi did this creepy 3 minute video about a nuclear bomb hitting San Francisco and Sam and I did a YouTube kind of analyzing it and we're like, what is it? This, like, what's behind this? Like, is this a Russian, is this a pro Russia thing? Is this, like, does she want to have a future career? Like, she's looking at her future career as a, as a announcer. Like, what is happening? And, and the political story sheds a little light on it, which is that like Trump saw it as a pushback on him.
JVL
No shot across the battle and was.
Tim Miller
Pissed about it, like, because he saw it as kind of like, be careful with what's happening in Israel right now message. And so that was delicious. And then you have the, the fact that she said three months ago that Iran's not actually close to a nuclear weapon, which goes against their, their arguments for bombing them right now, which is delicious. But the most delicious little subplot is just the JD Part of it. And JD Hanging out in there like, oh, he was on Twitter and he was like, well, when Tulsi made that of kind comment, it was three months ago and a lot has changed. But like I, from the inside, I can see the nuance of this closer than you guys can from the outside. And it's just like JD Is squirming right now, like trying to find where to land. And that the Tulsi and JD Element is what I'm watching most closely.
JVL
Well, so, so I, I brought up the Ted Kirsten just because I think it's funny and I think the Tulsi thing, you're right, is like, it is a delicious subplot. But I actually, I want to go big picture for a second because this, like, Trump flip flop on U. S. Interventionism is not like a flip flop on a foreign policy decision, okay? It strikes at the heart of the whole MAGA ethos, right? It is the uni Party establishment that has been selling out America and can be blamed for the destruction of the country, right? The wars in the Middle east are this prime example of the failures of the establishment that caused the deaths of Americans for nothing. Okay? Like this is, this is, this is essential to maga and this is why there's like the neocons and the warmongers and the elites and the establishment and the UNIT party. They're all basically synonymous with each other in MAGA speak, right? And Trump has spent 10 years channeling that, that anti establishment rage that like can't be divorced from the forever wars. Right, right. This is like he has been doing this. This is, this is who Trump is. And so now, like seemingly out of nowhere to them, Trump wants to get involved with regime change. Like what. This is wild to them. And this is, and to me, this is like an interesting difference between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0, because Trump 2.0 has been dominated by like this phenomenon right here. Trump says a ton of crazy things on the campaign trail. Tariffs, mass deportations, ending wars, bringing down prices on day one. And these are all either bad policies. Right. So tariffs, deportation, or actually impossible end all wars, bring down prices on day one. But Trump 2.0, unlike Trump 1.0, has an administration that will try to carry out all of the crazy things that Trump wants to do. Like those people are in place, but Trump keeps running into the fact that they're actually bad ideas. Like when he learns about them, he's like, that's why he tacos. He tacos because he's like, the tariffs are crashing the economy. And so.
Tim Miller
Which goes back to my old take that good people never should have went into Trump 1.0.
JVL
Yeah. If we just learned the lesson the first time around. Yeah. So I just, I just, I think that it's interesting that this, this unlike the big lie, unlike anything else you thought, could really fracture the coalition. It turns out that I've always really wanted to sort of wedge off, you know, the 30% who don't think the election was stolen, who might like Nikki Haley, who might be normal, but actually like, the better wedge is in the. No, no, he's a big tough guy who's going to take out Iran and defend Israel or no, he said he was going to end the forever wars. And for JBL's point about how Trump can be both things to both people. I do not think in this case.
Sarah Longwell
He can be so that's a really good question because I think he can. Not positive of it. I think he can. The people who are most wedded to the, the peacenik dove aspect of this America first stuff, I don't know how much of that really exists organically on the ground. It exists at the elite level among people who. Among the youngest ties to Russia.
Tim Miller
The Young magazine does.
Sarah Longwell
Maybe, but those people aren't going to be Trumpers any. I mean, they're, they're already gone. Right. As we just saw from the, from the, the.
JVL
I'm sure they're gone.
Tim Miller
Gone.
Sarah Longwell
They're pretty gone.
JVL
I mean, they're disillusioned.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, they're disillusioned already and had nothing to do with this. I, I look at this, you know, like Tulsi Tucker, very Russia friendly. Yeah, right. I mean, Russia is honestly a big part of the Iran story and it's like lurking right there. But if, if the US doesn't put any troops on the ground, and it won't, if, you know, everything is done sort of from a remove, I think these people are going to realize whatever. We wish he didn't do it because we really don't like Israel and the Jews, although we pretend to like them as much as we have to. But this will all be over in a month and he'll still be getting rid of the brown people. And that's.
Tim Miller
Yeah, I think the argument that he can get.
Sarah Longwell
I just think it'll be that simple.
Tim Miller
Yeah. The argument that he can get away with it is that the people most likely to bail on him over it, like, are probably the least gettable people for Democrats.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Like, where are they gonna go?
Tim Miller
I got a Tucker, you know, if you're, if you're an isolationist MAGA deportation person and you're mad at him over this, okay, but, like, where are you gonna go?
Sarah Longwell
And there used to be people like that on the left. Right. And, but, but the, because of the horseshoe, those, those people are all, it's like anti vaxxers. Those people are all gone from the left now. You know, they, they've joined up with MAGA and, and Maha.
JVL
So can I tell you where Molly squared this?
Sarah Longwell
Did you see that?
JVL
Molly did square it. But, but you know who's not? So, like, and this is not me. I'm not, I'm not one. Remember the people who, when Elon went rogue on Trump were like, we need to get Elon in the tent, whatever. Like, oh, I do remember same people. Yeah. So I'm not, I'm not suggesting that at all about Joe Rogan, but I will say, like, Joe Rogan has been just like tiptoeing backward from Trump lately. And I think, like, these people who are red pilled, many of them were red pilled because of things like this. They're genuinely isolationist or, or against the wars, whatever. Like, I just want peace. And this is like the old neocons where you get mugged by reality. Like, the world is a hostile place where, like, sometimes America has to show leadership, which doesn't mean we have to have be steeped in adventurism or regime Chains. Although, hey, did you see Nikki Haley? Nikki Haley came out and was like, donald Trump should not do regime change. Like, oh, my God, he's out hawking Nikki Haley. Sorry, say the Molly Hemingway thing.
Sarah Longwell
Because, no, she just, you know, she just, you know, she was. Before Trump said anything, she thought she was able to brush him back. And then he, you know, did his thing where he was like, yeah, maybe I am into this. And, you know, she went on Fox and was like, you know, this is a long standing, standing thing is that Iran can't have nuclear weapons. And so that's really what this is all about. And I, I just. Here's the thing. So Michael Shearer from the Atlantic talked with Trump and he asked him who gets to decide what America first means? And Trump said to him, well, considering that I'm the one that developed America first, and considering that the term wasn't used until I came along, I think I'm the one that decides that.
Tim Miller
Okay, I think he's right. Yeah, I was gonna say that. Well, everything he said was wrong up until the very last part, right? No, no, I think I'm the one that decides that, like, it was not. Obviously America first existed before him, and he's a liar and full. But I, I also think he's the one that decides. I agree with that.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Tim Miller
I mean, I, I think that there's that, like, the majority, there won't. It won't be like a Bush level fissure, I guess is my point. Like, there can be small fissures, but, like. But yeah, I think that what is interesting to.
Sarah Longwell
So here's the, the thing that is most interesting to me, and this is J.D. so, J.D. vance, for the second time in a fight, second time in, like two weeks, he sort of came out to Trump's defense, and he did it by talking about how Trump has earned the benefit of the doubt. That to me, if, if I'm Donald Trump, that sounds like a guy who's ready to turn on you and who is not sufficiently loyal and, you know, couching your support, as in, like, well, he's. He's sure, to us, it might look like he's wrong, but I guess he's earned the benefit of the doubt for now. Right. And that looks like a guy who is eyeing your seat and who is not going to be willing to defer to Don Jr. Or whoever. And I, I do wonder at some point if Trump just decides that JD Is going to get the Pence treatment. Maybe not. Right? Maybe J.D. is. But I'm shocked. I Don't know if you guys are. That JD be willing to not hug him as tight as he should in moments like this, because he did with this and with the Elon thing, like, push came to shove, and instead of just, like, hugging on to. To Trump JD's try to be clever and cute and. I. Did that strike you guys at all, or do you think it goes unnoticed?
Tim Miller
I'm monitoring it. I would say. I don't know yet.
JVL
I read it differently than you did. I read it as J.D. vance. Like, they were like, go give him some cover on this with your people. And he did. Okay. Like, maybe that's true. Yeah, I didn't. I. I'm trying to. I'm reconsidering the read on it, but just, like, my gut level read was, like, Everybody knows that J.D. vance has a. Like, he. Because he did do a halfway defensive tulsi a little bit there. Right. And so. And. And that. That, to me is. Is like, these are his people, and this is how you hold the coalition together is that you get J.D.
Sarah Longwell
Maybe.
Tim Miller
That's right.
JVL
Like, bring people back in, shut them up, tell people. Give him a second.
Tim Miller
Yeah, I'm monitoring it. He seems squirmy to me. I'm not sure. I think Sarah might be right, but it's. I got an eye on it.
Sarah Longwell
All right, guys, good show. Long show. We got to tighten these things up. They're starting to get really shaggy.
JVL
We've got lots of things to say to each other.
Sarah Longwell
This is the problem. Well, either we need to tighten it up.
Tim Miller
Each other's bad takes. Okay, how about.
Sarah Longwell
Or the world needs to settle down. Maybe the world needs to settle down.
Tim Miller
Deplatform one of each other's bad takes from the show, and that would cut out 12 minutes. Something to think about.
Sarah Longwell
Maybe we could do it in post. Okay, guys, hit, like, hit subscribe. Come follow along with us. We'll do. Maybe we'll do an hour 45 next week. Who could say we might be live next week? Oh, no, actually, that's right. I will be here next week because we might be doing it live. We'll do it live.
JVL
This is a thing we're gonna start trying. I'm Rodney Williams. And I'm Travis Holloway.
Tim Miller
Welcome to the Wealth Break podcast, a real conversation about finance. Let's be honest. Building wealth doesn't look the same for everyone.
Sarah Longwell
I feel like sometimes being broke is.
Tim Miller
A cycle and that we might have.
JVL
To revisit that and we're not stopping at success stories. What happens when it doesn't go right.
Tim Miller
How do you cope with it? Because wealth isn't just about money, it's about creating a life where you thrive.
Sarah Longwell
And help others do the same.
Tim Miller
Listen to the Wealth Break podcast on the iHeartRadio app.
Sarah Longwell
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Tim Miller
Hello, we are no such thing as a fish. We are a British podcast all about facts and trivia and everything interesting in the whole wide world. We cover everything from pufferfish rectums to the moon to mangrove forest. What else do we do? James oh well, what about the fact.
Sarah Longwell
That in 1936 a robot in California shot its inventor in the head?
Tim Miller
There you go. If you're intrigued to hear more peppered with some bad puns and some crude jokes, then check us out. We are no such thing as a fish.
Summary of "The Next Level" Podcast Episode: Can Trump TACO His TACO?
Release Date: June 19, 2025
Host/Author: The Bulwark (Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last)
In the episode titled "Can Trump TACO His TACO?", hosts Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last engage in a spirited discussion about former President Donald Trump's ongoing political strategies, particularly focusing on his immigration policies, their impact on various demographics, and the broader implications for the Democratic Party.
The episode opens with a metaphorical exploration of Trump's immigration tactics, likening them to "taco-ing his taco." The hosts critique Trump's approach to enforcing immigration laws, highlighting concerns about selective enforcement and its repercussions on rural communities.
Sarah Longwell (03:09):
"Over the weekend, we had Donald Trump taco on his deportations of migrants who work in farm communities and in the service industry for hotels."
Tim Miller (04:09):
"Trump has created an environment where every person's incentive is to be as cruel and fucked up to immigrants as possible."
The discussion emphasizes how Trump's policies disproportionately affect rural areas, leading to the closure of hospitals, increased healthcare costs, and economic strain on small businesses and farmers dependent on migrant labor.
The hosts delve into the economic fallout of Trump's immigration policies, arguing that mass deportations undermine industries reliant on migrant workers.
Sarah Longwell (10:06):
"He can say no carve outs, but do carve outs in practice. That's the trick."
Tim Miller (17:03):
"Once you start doing raids in the neighborhood and you know Abuela is getting taken out in cuffs, that's going to impact some percentage of Hispanic voters and young voters."
They discuss the potential for economic downturns in sectors like agriculture and hospitality, stressing that the loss of migrant workers could cripple these industries, leading to broader economic instability.
A significant portion of the episode examines recent polling data indicating a decline in Trump's popularity, especially among Hispanic voters and the youth.
Sarah Longwell (16:52):
"He's now underwater by 29 points. It's like 24 points."
Tim Miller (18:32):
"Voters 18 to 29... he was plus five with them. So he was 48, 43 approved. Yeah, he's now minus 39, 27 approved, 66 disapproved."
The hosts analyze how Trump's aggressive immigration stance has alienated younger voters and Hispanic communities, potentially weakening the Republican base and presenting challenges for future elections.
The conversation shifts to a recent incident involving the arrest of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander at an immigration courthouse, raising questions about law enforcement tactics and professionalism.
Tim Miller (22:26):
"Brad Lander’s in the Elizabeth Warren Lane."
Sarah Longwell (28:24):
"You have to prove that he never touched anybody... Show me a warrant."
They critique the aggressive approach taken by immigration officers, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability in law enforcement actions to maintain public trust and uphold civil liberties.
A heated segment revolves around the decision to interview Democratic primary candidate Zoran Mamdani, sparking debate about the ethics of providing platforms to controversial figures.
Tim Miller (40:15):
"Zoran Mamdani... he’s charming, he’s a good hang... but I don't think he should be mayor."
Jonathan V. Last (JVL) (55:11):
"What you were doing is conducting an interview in which you asked a difficult question. And I thought that as Tim notes, that's why everybody has this soundbite from him basically giving some mealy-mouthed garbage answer."
The hosts discuss the balance between fostering open dialogue and preventing the amplification of harmful ideologies, ultimately defending the choice to engage with Mamdani to promote informed political discourse.
The latter part of the episode explores Trump's evolving foreign policy positions, particularly concerning Iran and Israel, and how these shifts reflect broader MAGA dynamics.
JVL (80:41):
"Trump flip-flop on U.S. Interventionism strikes at the heart of the whole MAGA ethos."
Sarah Longwell (85:34):
"Michael Shearer from the Atlantic talked with Trump and he asked him who gets to decide what America first means? And Trump said, considering that I'm the one that developed America first... I think I'm the one that decides that."
The hosts analyze how Trump's contradictory statements on interventionism and support for Israel indicate a complex and potentially unstable foreign policy stance, questioning the coherence and long-term viability of his strategies.
The episode concludes with reflections on the current political climate, the challenges of maintaining a cohesive strategy amid shifting alliances and policies, and the imperative for both parties to address internal divisions to effectively respond to Trump’s maneuvers.
Sarah Longwell (83:05):
"The problem is that if he's elected mayor and something bad happens in New York under his watch, that's going to be used to hurt Democrats across the country."
Tim Miller (86:00):
"I think what is interesting to me is the argument that he can get away with it is that the people most likely to bail on him over it, like, are probably the least gettable people for Democrats."
The hosts emphasize the importance of strategic adaptability and the need for the Democratic Party to cultivate candidates who can unite diverse voter bases while addressing both domestic and international challenges.
Sarah Longwell (03:09):
"He's figured out that he can just enforce this stuff in blue states and just hurt economies for Democrats and urban dwellers."
Tim Miller (04:09):
"Trump has created an environment where every person's incentive is to be as cruel and fucked up to immigrants as possible."
Sarah Longwell (16:52):
"He's now underwater by 29 points. It's like 24 points."
Tim Miller (17:03):
"Once you start doing raids in the neighborhood and you know Abuela is getting taken out in cuffs, that's going to impact some percentage of Hispanic voters and young voters."
Sarah Longwell (28:24):
"You have to prove that he never touched anybody... Show me a warrant."
JVL (80:41):
"Trump flip-flop on U.S. Interventionism strikes at the heart of the whole MAGA ethos."
Sarah Longwell (85:34):
"Considering that I'm the one that developed America first... I think I'm the one that decides that."
Conclusion
"Can Trump TACO His TACO?" offers a critical analysis of Trump's ongoing influence on American politics, emphasizing the tangible impacts of his immigration policies, the shifting support among key voter demographics, and the intricate dynamics within the MAGA movement. The hosts advocate for strategic responses from the Democratic Party to counteract these challenges, underscoring the necessity for informed and nuanced political strategies in an increasingly polarized landscape.