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- [00:03]
JVL
Hello, everyone. I'm JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We are bearing down on three weeks to go in this election and everything's going great. Yesterday, Donald Trump held a town hall with a woman who might or might not have still been Kristi Noem. Hard to say. And you know, at the very end was just like, let's stop asking questions, let's just hit the playlist. And then sort of stood there and swayed. And I'm very confused, Sarah, because I need to ask you. I've been told for 18 months leading up to July 21, voters are super concerned about Joe Biden's age. And that's the only reason that they're supporting Donald Trump, because they look at Joe Biden and they think he's not all there and he can't do the job. It's just about the base question of can he do the job? Now the Democrats have nominated this, like, you know, 60 year old, youthful, energetic vice president who's supreme, supremely qualified.
- [01:05]
Tim Miller
Can I just object to this before Sarah talks? I know Sarah talks. Can we just criticize Trump without the fucking context of Joe? I just. We don't need to talk about Joe Biden.
- [01:13]
JVL
I'm gonna defend him.
- [01:13]
Tim Miller
Doesn't really have anything to do.
- [01:14]
JVL
I'm gonna just judging Donald Trump.
- [01:17]
Tim Miller
We can just judge Donald Trump on the merits of Donald Trump. It's bad enough Tom Nichols did this to me today too, where I've gotta, like, you know, like, do go. We're not going back. I don't need to relive the Joe Biden.
- [01:29]
JVL
Of course I would, like, stand up for the greatest living president.
- [01:32]
Tim Miller
That's fine. You can do that if you want. I've got Bob Woodward on the pod on Thursday. He also thinks Joe Biden was great, apparently. So if you want to submit a question or two, I'm happy to do that. Sorry, Sarah. I just want to focus on Donald Trump, if that's okay.
- [01:43]
JVL
Sarah, what did you think watching this?
- [01:45]
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
- [01:47]
JVL
When you saw it, did you think like, oh, this is resistance Twitter just making a big deal out of it, and then you saw it and thought.
- [01:56]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, dear God, no, this is not what. You're underselling how crazy this was because my team, what happened was my slack, right? My, the, the RVAT team is live clipping Trump's event and suddenly they were like, do you guys need to watch what's happening right now at this thing? Like, this is, you know, I've got this poor Guy that we torture in our office who watches all of these, his brain has turned into maga mush because he just has to watch every Trump rally and live clip.
- [02:22]
Tim Miller
He's taking over the podcast from me in December, actually.
- [02:25]
Sarah Longwell
Right. Shout out to Jared. And so Jared's going, guys, like, I know these are weird, but I'm telling.
- [02:31]
JVL
You know that you are giving this job to a person.
- [02:34]
Sarah Longwell
I know, I know I'm going to have to replace him with AI eventually. He's going to be like in a padded cell, you know, all tied up. But he's saying, in slack, guys, like, tap in. This is insane. What is happening. You've never seen anything this crazy. And I was sort of like, how crazy could it be? What is he talking about? Hannibal Lecter and sharks and electrocuted and whatever. And he's like. And he says, he says several people have passed out at the event. And so Donald Trump. And it's a town hall, it's not a rally. And this is a key point because the point was for Donald Trump to take questions. And so he had taken some, but people were passing out because apparently there wasn't ac. And so first Trump made an awkward joke. He was like, it's. He was like, what did he say? It was something like, we all need to lose a few pounds. It's good that it's hot in here. Anybody else need to pass, pass out? So, like, there's a couple medical emergencies. And then he's like, nobody wants me to just keep taking questions. Let's listen to some music. And then proceeded for 30 minutes to.
- [03:38]
JVL
Play 39, I believe.
- [03:40]
Sarah Longwell
39 minutes. And so my team, I was like, is this for real? I was like, well, what songs he played? And so they were shazaming each of the songs and gave me a set list, which is apparently a set list that is used often at Trump events because it's just favorite. So.
- [03:55]
JVL
And it's like, this is hand curated. These are things he likes.
- [03:58]
Sarah Longwell
This is like the. The rich men of North. The. What is that song? The North Richmond of Rich man. North Richmond Northeast. North Rich. Anyway, that song, Sinead O. Connors, Nothing compares to you, which.
- [04:11]
JVL
How dare Paparazzi.
- [04:13]
Sarah Longwell
How dare he. Ave Maria is the opener, I believe.
- [04:17]
JVL
Cats.
- [04:17]
Sarah Longwell
Memory from Cats. Yes, Memory, which is funny. Memory is the single worst song from Cats. So, like, obviously he loves it. Yeah, it's terrible. And that thing is, there's lots of good songs like Cats, by the way, I'll defend Cats.
- [04:30]
JVL
That is. That is your worst opinion ever.
- [04:33]
Sarah Longwell
No, there Are.
- [04:34]
JVL
Save that for the secret.
- [04:35]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. Mungle, Jerry and Rumple Teaser. There's a lot of fun things. It's based on a T.S. eliot poem. Book of practical cuts. Whatever. There's good stuff in there, but memory is terrible. So the point is, this is what.
- [04:48]
Tim Miller
It'S like for you when people talk about sport.
- [04:50]
Sarah Longwell
It is. Would you like me to go deeper on the Andrew Lloyd Webber canon?
- [04:56]
JVL
It's not really as good as Starlight Express.
- [04:59]
Tim Miller
Sarah.
- [05:00]
Sarah Longwell
Also good. Also a good show. Underappreciated. Whole thing's done on roller skates, so. But the thing about Donald Trump is he just stood there and, like, the camera's on him, so he just sways back and forth. It's like having a health event. It was like watching someone have a nervous breakdown. So he stopped taking questions, and then people just sort of slowly filter out. Like, they just start leaving because people have been passing out. And he's just not taking questions, and we're just listening to music. That is the single weirdest thing he's ever done. And he's done the most. So many insane things.
- [05:36]
JVL
Is that weirder than the balcony? The post Covid balcony salute?
- [05:40]
Tim Miller
No way.
- [05:41]
Sarah Longwell
But that was an Evita moment. We can bring these all back to musicals.
- [05:44]
Tim Miller
So don't cry for me Argentina Vita thing where he's heaving his breath. You can see his deep Covid breaths. No, that was way weirder.
- [05:53]
Sarah Longwell
It's true. Maybe it's not the weirdest thing ever, but it's pretty weird for just like a Trump.
- [05:57]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [05:58]
Sarah Longwell
Like, event. Anyway, that. That's sort of the end of it. Like, he did that. And if Kamala Harris had done this, this is such. It's not. It's. It's not even worth making this point. It's so obvious. But I do want to say that if Kamala Harris just went to one of her events, some people passed out, she made a couple jokes about that and then said, hey, let's listen to some music. And everyone just stood there. What do you think would be happening right now?
- [06:24]
Tim Miller
Well, the music would have been better. We would have had two short cross the head.
- [06:28]
JVL
Right.
- [06:28]
Sarah Longwell
At least people could have bopped right to Megan. Thee stallion had two short.
- [06:33]
Tim Miller
Yeah, Megan the Stallion. Beyonce.
- [06:35]
JVL
Is there any chance that this compared with. Compare this paired with the word salad and the weird non answers that he was giving at the economic forum event today, that at some point people look up and say, huh, this incredibly old and obese man with the pallor of a corpse maybe isn't up to holding the job of chief executive of these United States for four more years.
- [07:04]
Tim Miller
I want to get to that, but I need to share something with you that I shared with Tom Nichols already this morning. So I apologize for double listeners, but I think it's so good it's worth having multiple people's takes on it. This man, I'm making his. I'm just doing, elevate everything I can to elevate this fellow, Matthew Remsky, who's apparently a expert on cults and Far Eastern cults. He wrote this. Trump surrendering tonight's Q and a to 30 minutes of his favorite songs while standing on stage awkwardly conducting at times echoes many instances of cultic leaders who exhausted ill and at the end of their cognitive rope, outsource their emotional dominance subroutines to canned music they personally find exquisitely sentimental. As traumatized narcissists, they're seeking comfort and avoiding work, but also assume that their core memories of pleasure will make their power and soul transparent and accessible to their followers. I mean, I've never seen somebody hit it so much on the nose in my entire life as that guy. I mean, that is. This is exactly what's happening. Trump is a. Is like. What was that. What was that documentary? Did you watch the documentary about the Great north in Oregon and the cult leader? Trump is the dying Buddhist cult leader.
- [08:22]
Sarah Longwell
I watched this.
- [08:23]
Tim Miller
What was it called?
- [08:24]
Sarah Longwell
Was it called the Prophet?
- [08:26]
Tim Miller
No, it was so good. Sebastian Ephrath. It was in Oregon. It was a cult leader. It was an HBO documentary.
- [08:33]
Sarah Longwell
No, it was really good.
- [08:35]
Tim Miller
It was so good. It's a worthwhile watch. I watch it during COVID so everything's a blur. But that landed with me. I mean, this is really like. And it ties to the cognitive ability question because it's like he's just. It's not the behavior of a sharp person. It's the behavior of somebody that is like a sharp Trump back in 2016, in the final three weeks. I mean, you know, say what you want about him. Not a brilliant man, you know, but he could, he could level a hit. You know, he could do a read, as they say in RuPaul's Drag Race. Like, he'd be up there trash talking crooked Hillary, making some jokes that I didn't find funny with the people in the crowd found funny. You know what I mean? Like, he'd be doing that. That is not what this was last night. Like, in between the 39 minutes which I suffered through, he would. He would stop periodically and start talking for two sentences. But that Was like, rambly. And he'd be like, these are evil people. The Democrats are evil, evil people. And they'd be like, play the musical.
- [09:39]
JVL
Right? Afraid to be in front of 60 minutes. Afraid to be in front of.
- [09:43]
Tim Miller
Do the CNBC thing. Yeah. It's a guy that wants his comfort. It is. It's an elderly man that wants his comfort. Ice cream. He wants to be at the club around his people. He doesn't really leave his clubs that much. He's not doing these rallies and, you know, he wants this music. It makes him feel good. There's a little. It's the end of the third campaign. There's a little bit of a nostalgia element to it. He's trying to feel a feeling somewhere inside. And I just. I think the cult expert got it. And no. And it is crazy. I just like, will this make a difference? I don't fucking know. Why? I'm not going to pretend to know what is going to make a difference for the remaining people. I have some theories about specific groups of people, but, like, I do think it is worthwhile to continue to remind people that this man will be older than Biden is today. At the end of his presidency. He will be a very, very old man at 82. Potentially the prospect of jail on the other side, because who knows what else would still be happening at that point. You got to figure he's going to commit more crimes now. Some of them will be immune because of the Supreme Court, but Donald Trump's not above committing crimes outside of the official dut of the White House. He will be upset that someone will be taking his. Imagining this man four years from now with the button is, like, insane. It is a literally insane thing for the country to do. And I would hope that maybe this could help remind some people who are on the fence about that.
- [11:16]
Sarah Longwell
Can I talk about this? Why it matters or will it matter? Yeah, please, please make it matter. Okay, so I want to go back to the period of time when Tim Walls was auditioning to be the VP and he basically landed on messaging. That kind of turned everything around, right? He just started. He said, they're weird. And it became this sort of clarion call, right? And what I. And it got to the point where it was like, it was a little bit too much. They were all just using the term weird. That being said, Democrats were at their best when they were doing this because that narrative encompasses a few things. One, it is offense. Okay? It's offense. Two, you are unlocking something higher, right? So this isn't about Going policy for policy with these guys, which is a mistake. You will lose on points, but you can win on the bigger picture by unlocking something that people know deep down, which is, this guy is crazy. And I think that they lost kind of that big picture North Star, and they get kind of mired and everybody's given them advice. Close with abortion, close with this. And, like, you know, I've talked about going on offense on the economy. Everybody's got advice for these guys, but, like, nothing was better. They were. At no point were they better than when they understood that they needed to just brand the other side as nuts. And they have got to go back to that as their closest.
- [12:53]
Tim Miller
So can we add something to it?
- [12:55]
Sarah Longwell
Feeble, deranged, dangerous, sundowning, but just make it about sundowning. They have to own the news cycles. But make it about Trump. Right. I think this is. People struggle with this because they think, like, well, if it's about, well, okay, we're talking about Trump. We're talking about the crazy thing that he did. But that's not enough with, like, the Twitter class to do it. They have to center it as a campaign and say, it's too much. You don't want this. You don't want his finger on the button. You don't want this guy running anything serious. He's lost his marbles. It's crazy. And like that. And one of the things that was interesting, the split screen, because this is what concerns me, is last night we were all talking about Trump's rally because it was so bananas. She was also in Pennsylvania holding a rally where she was. She had a great rally. She was being substantive. She was playing clips.
- [13:53]
Tim Miller
It was basically her stump speech. Yeah, it was the stump speech plus the clips. Like, that's what it was.
- [13:59]
Sarah Longwell
She did this thing where she was playing clips of Trump talking about unleashing the military people. And I was like, yes, this is right. Like, we have got to make it about Trump. I do always think, though, it can't just be like, it. Yes, he's talking. It can't just be like, strongman, dictator stuff, because, again, you get into these strong, weak frames. It's got to be insane person. Insane person who is old and losing his marbles and, like, totally not unfit dictator, but, like, losing his marbles.
- [14:27]
Tim Miller
I like that we're spitballing here. I like losing his marbles.
- [14:30]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. But I think that is where. That's the closing argument. I think there's going to be. Everybody's going to wring their hands and be like, do we close with this or that or, you know, defense on immigration? No, he's insane. He's lost his mind.
- [14:43]
Tim Miller
And he'll be even four. I can't think about how many marbles he'll have left in 20. 28.
- [14:49]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [14:49]
Tim Miller
I mean, if he's losing them, I think they'll be down to a single marble banging around in there.
- [14:54]
Sarah Longwell
We know that audiences can. Can stick with this particular argument because they did it with Biden. We know it can land.
- [15:01]
JVL
Yeah. I mean, the weakness in this line of attack is what if people want. 47% of the country wants crazy.
- [15:13]
Tim Miller
That's not true, though. That's. That. We know that's not true. We know that's not true. I mean, do we. We have. There is an extremely alarming high percentage of the country that could be as high as 42% of the country that wants an insane strongman. I think it's probably lower than that, but it's not 47. And it's just not like we've seen his number go lower. We know for a fact that he's getting support right now for people that disapprove of him personally. So there absolutely are people that are. That do not want crazy. I mean, it's a disturbingly small number, I would say, but it is certainly enough to win the election. Wild, Wild country, by the way, is the documentary. Thank you.
- [15:51]
Sarah Longwell
Wild, Wild Country.
- [15:52]
Tim Miller
Was it wonderful? Wonderful documentary. Insane, Insane cult leader.
- [15:57]
JVL
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- [17:16]
Sarah Longwell
Yes, that's the worst. The best thing in the world is to be warm when it's cold. Right? I'm like leaving the windows open right now. I've also got my Bowen branch sheets on the bed. They are silky smooth, buttery, soft, whatever it is you say, but they're great.
- [17:32]
JVL
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- [18:29]
Tim Miller
Sarah, I'm just gonna sit here and drink my wine. We're taping this one in the evening and it's been a tough, it's starting to get tough for me. We'll get into it in segment three, but I haven't been drinking and podcasting but I'm having a glass here. So I'm just going to sit back and let you guys take some swings at cleaning. I think it's gonna be good for you to get out with the people. I need to get out with the people. I think I'm just sitting in my box, you know, increasing in rage every, every minute I see the, every minute I see the poll chart not move. And so I think it'll be good to get out with the people. But in the meantime I'm gonna have a glass. It's. It's kind of a. It's a, it's a green. It's a, it's a green.
- [19:06]
Sarah Longwell
What are you talking about, man?
- [19:07]
JVL
I don't know the one.
- [19:08]
Tim Miller
Yes, it was a chart. A shard. No, it's a green. Anyway, you guys Do Youngkin.
- [19:14]
JVL
Did you see Glenn Youngkin sitting down with Jake Tapper? And Jake Tapper read him all the things that Trump said and played the clips. Then Youngkin said, yeah, that's not what he was talking about. That. He didn't say that. I would like to get your thoughts on this.
- [19:32]
Sarah Longwell
Well, it's bad. Jbl. I didn't care for it. Glenn Youngkin.
- [19:41]
Tim Miller
Were you a Youngkin fan? I heard lots of people in the comments being like, wasn't Sarah Youngkin, Stan? I don't think so. I don't think so. But maybe she was.
- [19:51]
Sarah Longwell
No, they're confusing him with Larry Hogan, who is dmv. He was way better. Yeah, that's right. Then there's Maryland and Virginia, and they both have what are known in D.C. as good Republicans. Thought to be good Republicans. But I've never liked Glenn Youngkin because. Oh, what it is. What is? Sebastian, there was a moment you wanted Youngkin to come into the GOP primary when DeSantis combusted. Maybe that, maybe it was true. I don't know if I wanted it so much as I thought maybe it was going to happen.
- [20:22]
JVL
Also, wanting somebody else to come to the primary to challenge Trump does not equal being pro. Youngkin.
- [20:28]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's right.
- [20:29]
JVL
This is. Yeah. Okay, Sarah. Your honor is defendant.
- [20:33]
Sarah Longwell
Thank you. Youngkin's always been bad, but he. What did I used to always say about Youngkin? That he was, he was MAGA in the sheets and Mitt Romney in the streets.
- [20:46]
Tim Miller
Yeah, that was good. I stole that from you, actually.
- [20:48]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that was my Yonkin take.
- [20:50]
JVL
Or was it the other way around?
- [20:53]
Sarah Longwell
It's hard to remember now. It's hard to remember which one he is. No, he is the worst. He's a Chris Sununu type. Right. At least Larry Hogan's trying to be a good guy. I think he's wrong about some things, but, like, he's, he is not endorsing Trump. He will not defend the bad stuff. You know, he's out there looking for Democrats.
- [21:14]
JVL
Sununu. Chris Sununu at least endorsed a primary challenger.
- [21:19]
Tim Miller
That's true.
- [21:20]
JVL
Did not do that.
- [21:21]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I loved this interview, though, because this was just Youngkin being like, that's not true. And Tapper's like, I'm gonna just, I'll read it to you again. Like, what do you, what do you mean? And it was like, it was the, it was that Orwell quote of, you know, they, they, they told you to deny your eyes and your ears. And this is how Glenn Youngkin is Going to live in the Republican Party under Trump. He's just going to. And. But like, they've all been doing this. This was like when, you know, Manu Raju runs around with Trump's tweets. He used to do that. And everybody be like, I haven't seen the tweet. Don't know what you're talking about. This one. Because this was about the military turning on civilians.
- [22:03]
JVL
Yeah. Adam Schiff and Glenn Young is like, no, I think he means arresting illegal criminal immigrants.
- [22:09]
Tim Miller
And literally in the quote, it's like, it's not even one of these where you're kind of trying to read between the lines of Trump.
- [22:15]
JVL
Right. Which. That pronoun. Who does that pronoun refer to Trump.
- [22:20]
Tim Miller
Two times in the sentence says, I'm not talking about the illegals. Twice in the quote, he's like, I'm not talking about them.
- [22:26]
JVL
The Democrats.
- [22:28]
Tim Miller
Yeah. The worst people are the enemy within. He clarifies multiple times. The illegals are bad. I'm not talking about them in this case. I'm talking about the enemies within.
- [22:39]
Sarah Longwell
And I don't know how many times this has to happen. There was this point at which I can't even remember now. It's only two weeks ago, but Laura Ingraham was trying to give Trump an out on something. She was like, but you didn't mean that you were gonna do X. I can't remember what it was, but it's some insane thing. And he was like, no, Yeah, I did. No, I mean that I'm gonna do that thing. And they're all just like, okay.
- [23:02]
JVL
So I, I mean, Glenn Youngkin is who we thought he was. I'm not even mad.
- [23:10]
Tim Miller
I am. He's slightly worse. He's like, can I just. I know I didn't get to do this today. So I get to add a point. He's slightly worse than we thought he was. I would say, I don't know. I mean, if you had told me in 2000. And when did he first run? 21.
- [23:24]
JVL
Yeah.
- [23:25]
Tim Miller
You know that he was that like, Trump will run again next time. He will ostensibly endorse him in the primary. He'll support him in the general election, and then he will go out and surrogate for him and run cover for him when Trump threatens to sick the military. On the, on, on, on Adam Schiff. I would have said, I don't know. I'm on the. I mean, maybe, maybe not on that one. I think I would have said, maybe not.
- [23:49]
JVL
I would have bet a watch on it.
- [23:51]
Tim Miller
You would have had a watch on it. I guarantee you I got some friends that are in the Glenn Youngkin world that would have told me, no. Dude, no, no.
- [23:58]
JVL
Of course they always say, no, it's not going to happen until it happens. At which point they then say, well, of course this was always going to happen.
- [24:05]
Tim Miller
Okay, fair. I'm just saying it is worse than, I think what the median outcome was for Glenn Youngkin. Maybe not as bad as. Not worse for jvl, who always thinks the worst for people, which has turned out to be right 90% of the time.
- [24:20]
JVL
What I'm mad at is Jake Tapper. And I'm not even really mad at Jake.
- [24:23]
Tim Miller
Jake.
- [24:24]
JVL
I'm mad at T. Killed it.
- [24:26]
Sarah Longwell
Jake good.
- [24:28]
JVL
No, Jake was good, except that he then moved on and. No, listen to me.
- [24:37]
Tim Miller
Five minutes. They did five.
- [24:40]
JVL
I don't care. To present somebody to your audience who is insulting your audience like that and not pull the plug on the interview or to simply refuse to move on until the end of the interview and then pull the plug is how we get here. And this isn't a Jake Tapper problem. This isn't even a CNN problem. This is a TV problem. Because the mores of TV are that you have to move on. Right.
- [25:11]
Tim Miller
I have to take this one, Sarah.
- [25:13]
JVL
Hold on, let me finish.
- [25:14]
Tim Miller
I'm so sick of this. You're heading. You're hitting on a big pet. Pet peeve I have right now. Continue. I'm just so sick of this. Like, I don't. For starters, Jake Tapper did fine. He put him on the spot. At least he got going on. Do the interview. Going to do the Bulwark podcast. I've asked. It's not, you know, so it's not. It's not like I can do an hour with him on January 6th like I'd like to. So he's not going to do it. So he's. He's in a situation where he'll at least do it. Jake embarrassed him. Everybody agrees and. But if you're going to complain about something, the fair JBL thing to complain about is the people. Because it doesn't matter. Like, the problem is I'm just, I'm a little bit. I've had. I'm at the end of my WIC on the lefty. Like, it's the New York Times fault. It's CNN's fault. It's the Washington Post's fault. None of the people that matter watch these outlets. Like, it's all. We're all just fucking arguing with each other. The Only people that watch CNN are Kamala Harris voters. And like not even that many of them anymore, frankly. Not even that many of them.
- [26:14]
JVL
What that's true of Ms. I don't know that it's entirely true.
- [26:17]
Tim Miller
Yeah, it is true of cnn. There are no. The number of people that are Donald Trump. Like, the Donald Trump voters have totally separated themselves from the mainstream media world. And like nitpicking the AP headline about the crazy, it's just like, that's not the problem. There are some problems out there. I think that local media has some real problems. The local news, like, there's certain things, but it's just like obsessing over this is like crazy to me. It's like, it's not the problem. Like, that's. Jake is not the problem. Glenn Youngkin is the problem.
- [26:49]
JVL
And the voters, it is 100% part of the problem. 70 million people voted for Donald Trump. Like 400,000 people watch CNN in the evening hour or whatever. Like, it is not true that every Trump voter has separated themselves and is watching Newsmax and fox. They don't all live in alternative bubbles. And the question is, who? When you are a journalist, who do you serve? And you do not serve the newsmakers. You serve your audience. And to, to place in front of your audience somebody who is lying to your audience and to know that you're doing that.
- [27:21]
Sarah Longwell
But I don't think Jake didn't know he was gonna. He was gonna do that. Yeah, Jake. Jake nailed it.
- [27:26]
JVL
But he started doing it. But he started doing it. And then like I look again, this is, this is sounding anti tapper and it's not because I like Jake a lot and I think he did a good job of it, but he moved on. And this is what always happens. This is what. So this happened with the debate we had with St. Larry last week. I don't know if you guys saw this, right? You and I talked about this, Sarah.
- [27:46]
Tim Miller
Where we talked about it on Secret.
- [27:48]
JVL
Yeah, we talked about in Secret. And we get to the end and Angela also Brooks says, this makes this great point about Larry. The whole point of being a senator is voting. And you voted for a dead guy and you said you're going to vote for a dead guy. Again, this is disqualifying. And there's this. And Chuck Todd then says, all right, so I have to ask Commanders or Ravens, what the fuck?
- [28:24]
Sarah Longwell
That's a different situation.
- [28:25]
JVL
No, it's all the same. Television. Well, it's all the same. It's television.
- [28:30]
Sarah Longwell
Did you see the J.D. vance interview with The New York Times with Lulu Garcia Navarro.
- [28:38]
JVL
I did not watch it.
- [28:39]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, so this is. Well, it's a good example of how difficult it is to do this for the media when now you are dealing with inveterate liars and people who are going to gaslight all day long. So she does this thing. She's got J.D. vance, and she says, did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? And he said, well, that's not the issue. The issue is. And he starts going back to her saying, well, did they censor the Hunter Biden laptop? And then he makes it. He's like, it's about big tech. And she says, let me ask you again.
- [29:12]
JVL
Elon Musk is on stage at Donald Trump rallies.
- [29:16]
Sarah Longwell
She said, I'm asking you again, Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election? And he said, no, you answer my question. And she just keeps going back and saying this, and he just keeps not answering it. And like, is she gonna do that for 25 minutes? Like, she did it five times.
- [29:35]
Tim Miller
She did it five times. She asked him five times. And then it's like, okay, to what end? So you have the clip. It's embarrassing. Everyone sees the clip now. It goes around on TikTok, frankly. That does more service, right? Like, nobody. I just. Like, I just want everybody to free themselves from New York Times criticism. For the last three weeks, they're literally a zero dial. Trump voters reading the New York Times.
- [29:59]
JVL
This is TV criticism.
- [30:00]
Tim Miller
The reason you can't do it on.
- [30:02]
JVL
TV is because you have to book guests.
- [30:04]
Tim Miller
Well, we have tv.
- [30:05]
JVL
Book more guests if you set a guest on Fire.
- [30:08]
Tim Miller
Well, TV is the 1990s medium, literally, like, TikTok seems pretty cool. Is a totally dumpster fire of shit. Like, there are massive platforms of bubbles that people get themselves into on. On YouTube, on other social media platforms, like, nobody's watching CNN. Jake did a really good interview. I just don't think it's a problem.
- [30:29]
JVL
Enormous company. Enormous company. You know, giant buildings, tons of people working there. It's. It's a big deal. The other. The other one of these things, which isn't quite media. It happened into a debate in Jersey this week between Tom Keene, who's the rep for New Jersey 7. He's the son of a popular governor who was like a very. Christy Todd Whitman, late 80s to early 90s governor in Jersey. He's running against Susan Altman, and Altman says to him at one point, because they're having a conversation about immigration and Trump's deportation plans and whatnot, and she says, tom, I Mean, you know, should the president deport migrants? And this guy, this fucking guy does this and he just stares into the camera and he. I mean, clearly he had prepped for this and had decided that if this subject came up, he would simply stand mute until everything moved on. This is not the first time he's done this. He did this with a reporter for like a minute some time ago. And this is again. And, you know, so they were like, well, I guess we just have to move on. And I think, no, don't move on. It's a 90 minute debate. I think that should have been the entire thing. And in fact, Susan Altman should have stood there and just made fun of him and said, look at this. Sorry, Sebastian bleeped that out. Do you know why he's standing there not talking and not saying anything? Because he's a coward. And this is why he won't fight for you, because he's a coward.
- [32:12]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, can I just. I understand why you're upset about this. I do think your anger is slightly misdirected, and I think it's misdirected for two reasons.
- [32:21]
JVL
One is I have enough anger for everyone.
- [32:23]
Sarah Longwell
Sarah, you're very upset that Donald Trump is not doing worse and you want to blame somebody.
- [32:30]
Tim Miller
Same, by the way.
- [32:32]
Sarah Longwell
Sure. But also, if you're gonna lob a media criticism, which I think you can, I just don't think, like, Jake Tapper, who was genuinely holding Glenn Youngkin's feet to the fire on this. Like, I don't think he's your bad guy. I think your bad guy hit. Hold on.
- [32:49]
JVL
Okay. I wanna say, I don't think Jake Tapper's a bad guy.
- [32:52]
Sarah Longwell
Love you, Jake. No, but I just. My problem is the medium. He's not your bad guy. I do think you're right that cable news or much of our institutional media was just not built for so much bad faith.
- [33:04]
Tim Miller
Yes, yes, yes.
- [33:07]
Sarah Longwell
It is insufficient to the moment. But I do think what one can. Like, I think where I think it is falling down is what it chooses to cover. And so today, right. I feel like the cacophony should have been around. Like, the media should have been asking the question, is Donald Trump in early stage dementia? Like, what was that last night? Like, is he. Is he okay? Is he having a health event? I do think they would have. They did this with Biden at the debate. Like, why doesn't the media ask, is Donald Trump, like, are they pushing hard for his health? He's like, his tweezers tweeting today. Kamala Harris has many things wrong with her health. I am perfect. I don't know. Feels like someone ought to explore that because he seems not great. Actually, they should be talking about his age. They are choosing out of boredom. I got asked today a question by a reporter about how is Donald Trump different than he was in 2016 and 2020? And I think that's the wrong question. Like, we can answer that and we can be like, he's older and crazier and suckier and he's insurrection.
- [34:22]
Tim Miller
But, like, good answers, by the way. Those are pretty all very good, strong responses and true.
- [34:28]
Sarah Longwell
But the question is, how are we different? Right? Why can't. Why haven't we figured out how to focus on. It's like we got bored. Where it's like, I hear this, right? It's like, well, this isn't a news story, Trump being crazy, so how can we cover it? And that is where I think the falling down is.
- [34:50]
JVL
Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, this is a. This is. I will make an actual media criticism, which is that often in the media. My sense, I have not spoken to every single journalist in America, but the sense is journalists are reluctant to write about something that they think nobody cares about. And if they think that nobody cares that Trump might have dementia, and there's a lot of evidence that that many people don't care, then they're unlikely to write it. And I get that. I understand it. As somebody who writes about foreign policy only to see people not read my foreign policy stuff, I understand that you feel like you.
- [35:26]
Tim Miller
I'm sorry. I guess I just have to be the Brian Stelter on this podcast or something. But I'm sorry, the problem is the quiz. And maybe we're bored with this at the Bulwark. This is it. The problem is the quizling Tom Keene and the quisling Glenn Youngkin and the fucking people. That is the problem.
- [35:45]
JVL
Multiple problems.
- [35:46]
Tim Miller
They both got put on the. They both got put on the, you know, put on the spot. They both absolutely failed. So did J.D. vance. Everybody can see it for their own eyes. Everybody can see that. It's not like, I hear what y'all saying about, like, the focus on should be like, should we be questioning Donald Trump's dementia? Nobody that has even modicum of interest in this campaign has been denied video of Donald Trump being crazy. Like, there's plenty of video out there of it. They're playing it on the news, they're playing it on social media feeds. The crazy video thing last night of him singing to gay show Tunes like has been well out there.
- [36:26]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, my God, your tweet was so funny. Him stealing your culture or what is it wearing your culture like a costume?
- [36:33]
Tim Miller
My culture is not your costume. Which is. Which I stole from something. I don't even know what I stole the reference from. It's a. It is a stolen. It's a stolen thing. But yeah, my culture is not your costume. Ymca but the cruising appropriated a quote about cultural appropriation. I did. I did. So anyway, that's just. That's. Anyway, that's my rant. It's like. And this. And it takes us to the next segment about. About the polls are and who and who. I think that our anger should really be upset.
- [37:04]
JVL
The first pointed out brings us to a message from our next sponsor.
- [37:08]
Tim Miller
It does. Lumen. Didn't I just say that? Hey, Lumen, what's up? This is a vino. It's a vino verde, by the way. Vino verde. Okay, Just. You can Google that if you want to. It's a nice. Very refreshing.
- [37:23]
Sarah Longwell
Is it green in the sense that it's made from greener grapes, or is it supposed to be environmentally friendly?
- [37:29]
Tim Miller
No, thank you. It's green in the sense that it's younger. So if you have a green grape, you know, that hasn't fully ripened or whatever. This show is sponsored by Lumen, the world's first handheld metabolic coach. Lumen is a device that measures your metabolism through your breath. And on the app, it lets you know that if you're burning fat or carbs. And it gives you tailored guidance to improve your nutrition, workout, sleep, and even stress management. Here's how it works. All you have to do is breathe into your Lumen first thing in the morning, and you'll know what's going on with your metabolism, whether you're burning mostly fats or carbs. Then Lubin gives you a personalized nutrition plan for that day based on your measurements. You can also breathe into it before and after workouts and meals so you know exactly what's going on in your body in real time. And Lumen will give you tips to keep you on top of your health game. Metabolism is your body's engine. It's the center of everything your body does. Optimal metabolic health translates to a bunch of benefits, including weight management, improved energy levels, better fitness results, and better sleep. I should be breathing into my Lumen more is my takeaway from that, because I don't know what's going on in my body. After spending some time in Baton Rouge this weekend at the football game and spending all hours of the night consuming MAGA media and Nate Silver's polling updates I think has things not at its optimal health. I got to tell you, when I was breathing into the Lumen and I got to see what my optimal health was, it made a difference. That is something that I definitely am going to get back to. I don't know, after Thanksgiving. If you want to take the next step in improving your health, go to lumen methenextlevel to get 15% off your lumen. That's L U M e n me thenextlevel for 15% off your purchase. Thank you Lumen for sponsoring this episode.
- [39:23]
Sarah Longwell
What are the manifestations of your stress as you this because I will say I am going through multiple band aids a day because of the way that my fingers from being chewed on and picked at like it's so gross. But I if we should get a band aid sponsor sometimes. Some people are always people are like, because I'll have like a frozen bandaid because only band aids in our house. I'll have like cartoon characters on them for my children. People will be like, what did you do? Did you cut yourself? Because they see me gesticulating with my hands covered in band aids. No, it's my stress.
- [39:58]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Manifestations of my stress are a just like rising rage inside my chest that happens like 8 to 12 times a day that I need to offset with deep yoga breaths and very vivid dreams. I'm having very unbelievably vivid dreams that are like rage dreams. Get your head out of the gutter. JBL rage dreams. Not bad dreams. Very vivid rage dreams I've been having for the past few nights. So yeah, nothing to see here.
- [40:33]
Sarah Longwell
How about you?
- [40:34]
JVL
That's my secret. Sarah. I'm always angry.
- [40:38]
Sarah Longwell
You're always angry.
- [40:39]
JVL
There's no frustration by being always angry. I hit moments like this. This is just where I live. This is baseline. All right. So Tim, would you like to talk about the thing I wrote?
- [40:47]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I loved it.
- [40:48]
JVL
Not yesterday. Did you read yesterday's? Did you. Did you read the footnotes yesterday?
- [40:52]
Tim Miller
I did, Tim. It's funny. I did read yesterday.
- [40:53]
Sarah Longwell
What did you guys talking about?
- [40:54]
Tim Miller
So yesterday's newsletter for jbl, there was some little political intro that I'm kind of forgetting what it was. But then it was talking about cross country and this really excellent cross country running school somewhere in the New Jersey New York area. And it was super interesting. It was kind of about the psychology of kids sports. But I'm upset that I didn't. I Guess I didn't read the footnotes. If I'm on my phone, I think the footnotes are harder to get to. And so I didn't read the footnote, which apparently there was a Sarah joke in there. So I'll have to go back and get that. Today's newsletter, which I really liked and I'm very happy to get to since we had that disagreement about poor Jake Tapper, who we all love, was just like, what was the title of part one? Cope.
- [41:40]
JVL
It's the Cope that Kills.
- [41:42]
Tim Miller
Something like that. Yeah, it's the Cope that kills. It was a cope Hope metaphor. And it's just like, the reality is, and I get it, everybody is dealing with their stress in their own way, as we just discussed. And I honestly, I do not begrudge anybody out there that wants to, like, just grab on to any data point or any pundit that tells them that everything is going to be okay and just stick with that and spend three weeks blocking out anybody that maybe things will be okay and maybe things will be okay. Yeah. And honestly, I do not begrudge you that. I do not begrudge anybody that. It is a stressful time. That is, I don't. I don't think that's. I would begrudge that if it was like, the campaign strategy or a pundit strategy, because I actually don't think it's helpful for people to be sanguine on the, on the at scale. But at the individual level, if you are already voting for Kamala Harris and already doing your door knocking or your phone backing or postcarding and you made your donation and that's all you can do, you've told all your friends to vote then, and you don't want to be upset, that's fine. I get that. What I, What I don't like is the people, like, on social media and on my, in my text, like, trying to bully me into, like, being like, no, everything's okay. Why? What are you talking about? Everything's great. She's. We're fine. We're on the Great breath waiting for Dead Wetter.
- [43:03]
JVL
And they don't need your negativity. It only helps them.
- [43:06]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Thank you.
- [43:09]
JVL
My job now here to make you feel better.
- [43:11]
Tim Miller
Correct. And they cite a couple of data points in doing this. There is the data point that early voting is looking great for Democrats. That is totally voodoo. There are a couple prominent people out there that are doing the rounds talking about how great early voting is. I am telling you, if you want to get to the dark place Go watch msnbc clips from 2016 October, search early voting and see what the data experts and the registration experts were saying. The Florida early voting looked so great. By the way, one of those experts was me. So I'm learning from fucking, I'm learning from history. And the reality is there's been a massive change in this country. And Sarah talks all the time about the realignment and who's voting for who. But how we vote, the change has been even greater than who we're voting for. And so. And in 2020, it was a pandemic. So, like, there was a huge displacement like who voted early and how they voted. So there is no baseline with which to compare this year's early voting demographics to 2016's early voting demographics. Like, I'm sorry, there's just no way to do it. And if you don't believe me, you can look at what the experts said in 2016. They thought that Hillary was on the path for an eight to nine point win in Florida because of the early voting looked so good for her in Florida. So that's one of them. Everybody's seen the other ones, whatever about poll skewing and how there's the other one I get a lot is Republicans with junk polls are skewing the averages. Not true. Actually, I think it was Nate Cohen or somebody did an analysis of the averages with and without Republican aligned polls. And it is true. I guess it's true in the sense that it makes it one point better for Kamala if you take maybe like a half point in certain states and one point, you know, if you take out the Republican junk polls. So like, okay, great, I'll take that half point and pocket that. But that's still not good enough. I got it. Still, it's still unbelievably close. Nate Silver is it at 50? 50. If you don't, if you don't like Nate Silver, that's fine. If you think it's maybe 52, 48, I'm for that. That sounds right to me. I think I'd probably rather be Kamala. 52, 48. You could even sell me on 50. Not the popular vote count, like likelihood to win. That's insanely close. That's way too fucking close. It is unimaginably close. And you know, it's possible that there's a poll error in Democrats favor. That is totally possible. But the poll error was in the Republicans favor the last two presidential cycles. It has been in the Democrats favor in the midterm cycles, I should say. But in the presidential cycles, it's been in the Republicans favorite. So there you go, Sarah, take it. Have a drink of vino verde. If you're listening to that, it makes.
- [45:59]
JVL
Me think of no country from For Old Men. That scene where Anton Chigurh goes into the gas station and he's talking to the old guy and he says, how much have you ever lost on the toss of a coin, right? And that's like, that's where we are.
- [46:15]
Tim Miller
Oh my God.
- [46:16]
Sarah Longwell
He kills that guy, by the way.
- [46:18]
JVL
No, he doesn't kill that guy. He lets that guy go. That guy calls it the gas station in the gas station. 100% should watch that movie. The guy's like, I can't. I can't call it.
- [46:29]
Tim Miller
Not in the next three weeks, apparently. Oh, that just gave me the shivers just thinking about that.
- [46:34]
JVL
That moment. That moment when Anton Chigurh says, I'm sorry for anybody who's a no country for Old Men fan. He says, this guy is like, you know, how did you wind up. How did you wind up here? And the guy's like, well, you know, I'm married into it. And Javier Bardem does this thing where he catches himself and swallows and is. You chose this. You married into this. What an amazing piece of acting. But that's where we are. We're at a coin toss for the rule of law, the international order, democracy.
- [47:11]
Tim Miller
I think the TED side of the coin is slightly heavier, but who cares, right?
- [47:16]
JVL
Because it's a one time outcome. We're not flipping it a hundred times. Where, you know, we'll see. If we do it a hundred times, then 51 of them will, you know, you don't get to play a thousand hands of blackjack here, Sarah. I'm trying to talk in a language that speaks to you.
- [47:31]
Sarah Longwell
That does speak to me.
- [47:33]
JVL
I mean, here's the thing. Yeah.
- [47:37]
Sarah Longwell
Obviously I feel the anxiety like you guys do. I will say I basically only look at polls now from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I had Ralston on the pod, the focus group pod. We did Nevada and Arizona.
- [47:55]
JVL
And what have you given up on those two?
- [48:00]
Sarah Longwell
I. It's more like I'm willing to let them go. Like I'm not fighting hard for them emotionally. It's interesting, the focus group stages of.
- [48:11]
JVL
Grief, isn't it, Sarah?
- [48:12]
Tim Miller
Yeah, that's if you just give me the three blue wall states.
- [48:17]
Sarah Longwell
No, I'm an acceptance. Yeah, that's right. North Carolina. I never, I never thought we were getting North Carolina. And so I just think Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska too. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, too. And the thing that has been cheering me up generally is that she has been consistently ahead by four points in Pennsylvania, which has been the toughest polling state for her of the ones she has to win. She's been widely had. There's not that much polling in Nebraska, too, but she's been quite a bit ahead there. We just did a Pennsylvania focus group today, clean sweep for Harris among our swing voters, which is unusual. We've usually been losing one or two, sometimes three, like we did. I did two groups out Nevada in real life for Judy Woodruff for pbs. And in both the groups, one, there were two going back to Trump, a man and a woman. And then the other one, there were two going back to Trump and one who literally would not decide between the two. He kept being like, you're making great points to everybody. I just don't know what I'm going to do.
- [49:26]
JVL
They're both so good. I can't pick.
- [49:29]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And Nevada's funny because. Or, sorry, not. Not Nevada. The Arizona, because they hate Carrie Lake. Hater. All of them.
- [49:37]
JVL
Yeah. It just makes all the sense in the world. They hate Carrie Lake and sexism. They're gonna vote for this guy who.
- [49:44]
Tim Miller
Sexism is a nice through line there.
- [49:46]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I think. I think. Well, Carrie Lake. Gary Lake's done some. Done some weird stuff out there. And I asked.
- [49:56]
Tim Miller
Suggested that the military go after Jeff Lake, for example. You know, very strange, outlandish.
- [50:02]
Sarah Longwell
She defamed Stephen Richer. She lost that defamation case. But she also, remember, she leaked. I'd forgotten about this.
- [50:09]
JVL
She trapped him, didn't she?
- [50:11]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, she, like, she secretly recorded and leaked the head of the Republican Party. So she's lost a lot of the Republicans out there, too. She also flipped on abortion.
- [50:19]
JVL
We're so glad those guys are willing to draw a line.
- [50:21]
Sarah Longwell
I know. Well, I asked, I asked, what's the difference between Carrie Lake and Donald Trump? And the answer was, well, Donald Trump's at least delivered something for these people. Like, she's just, you know, been stirring things up. They were all going gallego. But not actually. That's not true. It was funny, actually. I hate to preempt my podcast like this, but there was a great. The one guy who was voting for her was like, we got to get her out of the state. We got to send her to Washington. We got to get her out of here. I'll vote for her because I don't want to get her far. As far from here as possible to.
- [50:50]
Tim Miller
See her at the grocery store again. She's creeping Me out. Can I. Can I object to those? Sarah, really quick. Jerry. Bill, don't let you go just on one point. Sure. I stipulated we can get. Let Nevada and Arizona go and get the three and the one. And I'll be happy that night whenever it's called. But like Kamala Harris winning 270 to 268, thanks to a congressional district and thanks to Pennsylvania where if you watch that 60 Minutes, it was the most horrifying segment of television I've watched all year. I would not recommend that you watch it 60 minutes with the head of the Pennsylvania electoral voting system. I don't know, whatever her title was. I forget. Not the Secretary of State, like the actual Board of Elections. And she went through how they counted. And it's like they have an envelope and then another envelope.
- [51:51]
Sarah Longwell
The secret.
- [51:52]
Tim Miller
So they've got to open both envelopes and then they get it out and it's folded three ways. But to get it to go through the machine, they've got to refold it backwards one at a time. And then they stick it into the machine. 1. And they're like, how long does that take each one? Like, I don't know, a minute or two. I was like. And they can't even start counting until 7 or 8pm on election night because of the fucking Republicans. I'm laughing. This is like tears of horror laughter, like it's sadness laughter. The Pennsylvania. Who knows when they'll have it counted by and the number of examples that they will. That the Republicans will have of like making shit up and fake, fake voting shit. It's just. Anyway, so my point is great. 270. We'll take it. Chalk it up. Send them back to Mar a Lago. We'll figure out what's next from there. But we are in an ugly, ugly, ugly fucking place in this country if that asshole gets 268 electoral votes and there's a fucking mob of Oath keepers in Harrisburg while they're refolding back the ballots back the other way to get them to go into the machine.
- [53:01]
JVL
We're real long here.
- [53:03]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, yeah. Can we just underscore.
- [53:05]
JVL
Who cares?
- [53:06]
Sarah Longwell
It's. We're taping this on a Tuesday night. We're going on a bus tour.
- [53:10]
JVL
Will give the people the super sized show.
- [53:12]
Sarah Longwell
They're fine.
- [53:13]
Tim Miller
Anybody that's made it this long is going as long as we want, I guess, is one thing I would say.
- [53:18]
Sarah Longwell
All right, guys, this, this thing I just want to underscore because people might not know this. They tried to pass a law to allow Pennsylvania to open the ballots. Not even that. Count them. Just open the envelopes and get them prepped. Right. Both the envelopes and most places do this. They've got the secrecy envelope and then the outer envelope that you put the stamp on. But they tried, the Democrats tried to be like, how about we just prep these early, we'll open them and then we'll tally them the night of. But we'll have opened the envelopes and gotten them prepped. And the Republicans said no.
- [54:00]
JVL
Gee, Sarah, why do you think that?
- [54:01]
Sarah Longwell
There's only one reason.
- [54:02]
JVL
Why do you think that?
- [54:03]
Sarah Longwell
I can think of why they would do it. And it is because they want. They want the time. Right. They don't want to know that night. They want to be able to claim in the interregnum where people need an answer that there was some mischief. That there was. It is just, it is all about sowing doubt. No, totally different theory.
- [54:24]
JVL
Totally disagree. They want to not have a definitive answers that Trump can claim victory.
- [54:32]
Tim Miller
Some more points.
- [54:33]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's sort of what I said.
- [54:35]
JVL
But no, but it's not doubt. So, I mean, this is. I wrote about this.
- [54:39]
Tim Miller
You're making a distinction between sowing doubt and just claiming victory. Is the distinction.
- [54:44]
JVL
Because it is not. There is a difference. Right. In 2020, the Republican position was not, look, we don't know who won because there are a bunch of problems and irregularities and we've got to get to the bottom of it. That was not the Republican position. The Republican position was Donald Trump won.
- [55:03]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [55:03]
JVL
Right. And that even though he got crushed. Even though he got crushed. So I guess do we want to do this when we are with a live studio audience and I've been able to have some Xanax chased by alcohol? Or do we want to talk about now my questions about what happens even if Kamala wins Now, let's save that. Save that.
- [55:23]
Tim Miller
I'm with you. We can say that we got a lot. We have multiple shows this week. There's going to be a bonus next level for people this weekend. We have a lot to cover. But I don't know. I mean, do you have any? Do you have any. I am curious though, jbl, before we go to the final segment, do you have any revise and extend anything for the newsletter? I mean, you had like 800 comments, a lot of feedback. Is there anything that you also.
- [55:44]
Sarah Longwell
What did you say in your newsletter?
- [55:47]
Tim Miller
Just that it's really fun. Just basically I just said it's really fucking close. And.
- [55:52]
JVL
You know, literally yesterday I had a footnote on a line that I wrote just for you. And the footnote said, hi, Sarah, because I was expecting like, oh. And she'll send me a little text and she'll be like, oh, jvl you, you know, you get me. And.
- [56:10]
Sarah Longwell
I saw that it was about. I saw that it was about kids sports and I was like, nope, it was busy.
- [56:16]
Tim Miller
We got a busy.
- [56:17]
JVL
Sarah, do you have a message for us from another sponsor?
- [56:22]
Sarah Longwell
I do. I do. Our final sponsor of today's episode is One Skin. I love One Skin. Did you have a little too much fun in the sun this summer? It's no secret that UV rays can take a toll on our skin, leaving it dried, tired, and less vibrant. If you want to hit the undo button on UV induced aging, say hello to One Skin. Your secret weapon against the summer's toll on your skin. One Skin products are all powered by the revolutionary OS1 peptide. This proprietary peptide is scientifically proven to reduce dysfunctional also called sensant cells, a central source of skin aging. Crush that. Their scientists have shown that it can actually reverse the biological age of skin by several years. In their groundbreaking research. Healthier, more youthful looking skin doesn't just look great, which we all want, obviously, but it is good for your overall health too. As the leaves change color this fall, help your skin undergo its own transformation. With One Skin, their products work tirelessly to repair, rejuvenate and erase the signs of summer damage, ensuring you step into this new season with the healthiest skin of your life. Head over to One Skin CEO and explore how their products can become your skin's new savior. They mailed me a ton of these One Skin products. It is now all I use. The eye cream, the sunscreen. Tim, have you been using your. Your One Skin?
- [57:48]
Tim Miller
I have, yeah. I have not the sunscreen. Probably should be using the sunscreen, but I have been using the face moisturizer. The eye cream.
- [57:57]
Sarah Longwell
The eye cream.
- [57:58]
Tim Miller
Yeah. I need more probably. Why you don't think I have been. Because I have what my mother affectionately calls as Uncle Al's as a homage to her Uncle Al who had just these epically massive bags under his eyes.
- [58:12]
Sarah Longwell
Put luggage in it, go to Europe.
- [58:14]
Tim Miller
Exactly. And I and I inherited those. And so here's a little fun fact. In addition to using One Skin religiously, I've also been doing applying face makeup only to the under eye. And it's. It's been very good actually. And so you haven't really noticed my massive travel bags across Atlantic Ocean. Travel bags. But I forgot to do it because it's a night podcast, so. So don't be fucking blaming One Skin. It's my lack of makeup application that's. That's the issue.
- [58:46]
JVL
I have so much to learn.
- [58:47]
Sarah Longwell
One Skin is the world's first skin longevity company. One Skin addresses skin health at the molecular level, targeting the root causes of aging. So skin behaves, feels, and appears younger. It's time to get started with your new face, eye and body routine at a discounted rate. Today, get 15% off with the code the next level. At One Skin code. That's 15% off. One Skin CEO with code the Next level. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. We only have one body, One skin, and only you can choose to make it better. Age healthy with One Skin. Thanks, One Skin.
- [59:26]
Tim Miller
Please support our show. Are you. Have you. Did you also have a glass of wine?
- [59:30]
Sarah Longwell
You know what? There's a lot of S's in the One Skin ad read.
- [59:34]
Tim Miller
Senescent cell sells.
- [59:36]
Sarah Longwell
And I nailed that line, so support away.
- [59:41]
JVL
All right, so, Tim, you had your first ever vc, a salt of the earth venture capitalist, on the show.
- [59:50]
Tim Miller
Not an elite.
- [59:51]
JVL
Not an elite. Just a guy who likes to roll up his sleeves and tap away on his computer and create wealth and jobs and value.
- [60:00]
Tim Miller
Capital allocation.
- [60:01]
JVL
Oh, man, I love it. It's so great.
- [60:04]
Tim Miller
Capital allocation.
- [60:05]
JVL
I just think capitalism is the best.
- [60:08]
Tim Miller
I'm turning into Bernie. I gotta tell you, I'm turning into Bernie. Every additional rich person I meet moves me one step closer to becoming Bernie. I mean, I do have to say with love to all the great rich people that listen. So maybe not every additional rich person I meet, but like out of every 10 additional rich people I meet, seven of them moved me one step closer to Bernie. Yeah, the conversation was interesting. Just the quick backstory is that with help from Barry, we had posted. These guys have this podcast, the all in podcast. Very influential in Silicon Valley. Trump has been on it. All four of them were against Trump last time. Two of the four are now major Trump donors.
- [60:53]
JVL
One of them is January 6th. Right. They just saw that and they thought, that's the kind of strong leadership we need.
- [60:58]
Tim Miller
Well, we got into that.
- [60:59]
JVL
Couldn't get on. They couldn't get on board Trump in 2016, and they really couldn't get on board Trump in 2020. And after 2020 is when he showed them his medal.
- [61:08]
Tim Miller
Well, he showed a kind of a founders mentality, really. After 2020, move fast and break.
- [61:14]
Sarah Longwell
A real disruption.
- [61:15]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Disruption of the system, of the establish.
- [61:18]
Sarah Longwell
Order, the peaceful transfer of power. That's. That's the kind of disruptor mentality we like.
- [61:22]
Tim Miller
So, anyway, a third member. The fourth. There's a fourth round of the token. It's kind of an Alan Colmes character on the podcast who talks the least. And then the third member of the podcast is this man, J. Cal. They call him Jason. And J. Cal took offense to the video that we posted, which was just audio of.
- [61:40]
Sarah Longwell
Explain it. You should. You have an experience.
- [61:42]
Tim Miller
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we had. So with Barry's help, we had posted this audio. Yeah, we posted this. Yeah, audio of them. A supercut of them after January 6th and what they all said, and I don't have it in front of me, but the long and short of it is they wanted him jailed. One of them even suggested they add up all of the sentences of all the rioters and give that total sentence to Trump. They called him a delusional lunatic and a fuckwad. And I don't have all the words in front of me, but the worst words you could come up with. And then now, fast forward four years. Two of them are major donors to Trump, and they were major advocates, and they had them on the podcast. They give him a soft interview. So I posted this, and the third guy, the wishy washy guy, Jason felt like we misrepresented the views, the full context of their views, and so he wanted to come on the podcast, and I said, I'd gladly do that. That's great. We can have an exchange of ideas. Jason is friends of Elon. He's friends of David Sacks and two.
- [62:46]
JVL
Of the great intellects of our time.
- [62:47]
Tim Miller
Yeah. David Sacks spoke of the rnc. Elon's spoken on the Trump rally. He claims to be neutral. He calls himself a double hater. Sarah. Which he'll appreciate. There's Elon dust. No, this guy, J. Count, the one that came on the calendar. Jason. So he calls himself a double hater. And so I just kind of wanted to explore it. So it was going to be kind of a short bonus segment, but it was so enthralling that I kind of had to keep going and learn more and keep peeling back the onion. But I wanted to figure out what it was really, that turned to these prominent billionaires who are succeeding beyond the imagination of anyone in world history, from being anti Trump to pro Trump.
- [63:29]
JVL
It's the plight of the forgotten man, isn't it?
- [63:31]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And Jason was kind of hard to pin down on that point, but we talked for quite A long time. Yeah. And I think it was revealing. It was not akin to my Dan Crenshaw interview, which I appreciated your praise for that on the Secret podcast. It was not akin to that where I was like shouting him down. It was more like I just wanted to let him explain himself because it's so inexplicable. And really what you come away from at the end of it, I think I'd encourage people to listen to it if they have the stomach for it, is the depth of their criticism of the Democratic party is like 1cm. And they just. There's a combination, a confluence of factors. They don't like the woke. They felt like the Democrats were mean to them. There were several references to how Chamath and Elon had donated money to Biden, but they weren't invited to the White House. So there were some personal affronts. I know.
- [64:25]
JVL
I mean, you're supposed to. God knows, like you give money to people when you're rich. They're supposed to just tug you off.
- [64:33]
Tim Miller
Whenever, do stuff for you. Yeah. There was quite a lot of discussion about how the Democrats attitude towards job creators and self made men was very negative. And so I pushed on that point in specific. I did push. And I was like, but are there specific policies that Biden implemented or that Kamala is proposing that you felt like were an assault on wealth creators? No. The answer to that was no. It was just the vibes. Their vibes were bad, he said. And then he also mentioned several times that they think Congress.
- [65:10]
JVL
You mean like when she. When she opened her convention speech to accept the nomination of her party by the first thing she did talking about small business owners?
- [65:17]
Tim Miller
Yeah, well, they're not really worried about small business owners, big business owners. But yeah. And he did several times call her stupid, which several people have commented that there's maybe a hint of. Of misogyny there. Maybe it may just a hint of sexism that they think that Kamala is stupid. But don't feel that way about Donald Trump, who I don't think has ever read a book. So that was mostly exchange. We had a couple agreements. We agreed on crypto. And I think that the maddening part about the whole thing is just like, it's just. It was Hannah Arendt, not to make my podcast seem more lofty than it is, but it really was just the banality of evil in 45 minutes. Like he had nothing. Like he had nothing. Like there was nothing. He seemed like a nice person, actually. And he just. The substance of the critique of Kamala was just completely barren. Like, the cupboard was barren, like, as far as substantive concerns. And so I guess they're going to sleepwalk us into autocracy because they feel like they'll. They'll get treated nicer by Donald. He'll invite him there, and they'll probably have. Have be able to put impact regulations in ways that help their portfolio companies and do other kind of grifty stuff like that. And so it was kind of a downer in that sense, but I think on the positive side, it was quite revealing.
- [66:46]
JVL
Wow.
- [66:48]
Tim Miller
Something.
- [66:49]
JVL
Sarah, that is something else. There was something else you'd want to talk about too. Timing.
- [66:54]
Tim Miller
Oh, no. I mean, do you like the way.
- [66:58]
JVL
I teed that up in case you wanted to back off of it?
- [67:00]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Yeah. We don't need to do it. I don't need to just pick on people on the J. Cal thing. We had him on the podcast. It's tough. I guess my final comment on the J. Cal thing is like, it ties to the anxiety in the vino verde is like, how are we here? How are we here? Like, this person, like, there is. One of the things I read from him was a tweet of his that he had sent, which was actually quite. It could have been from jvl, really. It was like, you guys are all miserable. Like, the economy is booming. Like, we've run up. You know, the stock market is on a huge run up. Unemployment's down. We have a ton of, you know, if you want to invest in companies, there's a ton of investment income out there. Silicon Valley is on the rebound. You know, like, he. And he sent this tweet and he's like, I don't understand why you are miserable. Like, I read that back to him and I was like, and so why do you want to blow it up then if this is. If everything's fine? And like, again, he just doesn't have a good answer for that. And so that is very. It's very frustrating. Like, I don't actually know if I would feel better if we were on the cusp of the Donald Trump third term because of like some great recession or something that was beyond our control. But I feel like I'd feel a little bit better about it because I'm filled with contempt for the people that are getting us here. That is like, that is really overpowering my whole being.
- [68:20]
JVL
I have a question, just real quick to get us out of here. I'm sorry, I did not listen to it.
- [68:26]
Tim Miller
I just posted.
- [68:28]
JVL
I didn't make myself do it. Is it that? Is he one of these people who can't imagine actually blowing it all up? Like, I guess this is my question. Is he a Curtis Yarvin, like. Or Mark Andreessen or Peter Thiel, like, democracy doesn't work?
- [68:49]
Tim Miller
No.
- [68:49]
JVL
Or is he one of these guys just like, yeah, it's always. It's. Everything's great. It's always been great. It'll be great no matter what. Everything's fine.
- [68:56]
Tim Miller
The latter. Everything's always turned up, Jason. You know, everything's turned up, Jason. His dad was a fire worker, and, you know, he managed to get at Silicon Valley right at the time where everybody was getting. Getting rich. And, you know, I mean, it wasn't.
- [69:13]
JVL
There's a big jc. Some people turn out to be Scott Galloway.
- [69:16]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [69:17]
JVL
Right.
- [69:17]
Tim Miller
It's tough.
- [69:19]
JVL
This is good or bad.
- [69:21]
Tim Miller
Sarah, do you have any final thoughts of wisdom? Can you uplift me? Do you have any uplift?
- [69:25]
Sarah Longwell
I don't know about uplift. I just. Listening to you talk, you know, there is. Some of it, I think is just social. Like, thinking about how, like, just how shallow it all is. Like, you just get the sense that it's like, oh, some of the big bad boys of tech went this way. So, like, I kind of go this way, too. And I don't know that much about politics and high school cafeteria stuff. Yeah. And the extent to which Trump, you know, I think about this a lot. Trump is like a lifestyle brand now, and in a way that people sort of use him to say, like, oh, look, I'm heterodox. And, like, somehow he caught fire as a symbol in Silicon Valley of, like, a heterodox way of thinking, pushing back against the system. And it's some of the things that people liked about Trump from the beginning, but I think that there was a reflexive at the time in 2016, and even in 2020, sort of a revulsion to Trump that was social. It wasn't socially acceptable to support Trump. And then Elon made his big move, Sachs followed him. And now it feels like a lot of them are like, that's just what it feels like. And I don't know, man, the stuff with Trump, I understand the anxiety. It's so interesting how it's interesting is not the right word because the stakes are so high. But, like, just watching people, Trump couldn't be acting any crazier. And I'm not even sure that people are noticing that much. Like, it's not even popping so much in the groups, which is why I sort of Going back, I don't know. We've been talking for hours now, but hours ago I said something about going on offense and really focusing on that they're crazy and weird and all that high level stuff. Because if you let voters start getting into a point by point over immigration and economy, they kind of talk themselves into Trump because, you know, there's so public opinions like cement. It's soft at first and then it's hardened. Like people just have hardened impressions of Trump. They don't feel like they need to go watch his rally or his town hall. They're not looking for new information. They think they know what they need to know about him. And so it feels like without really getting people focused on how insane it all is, they kind of like bake it in. And didn't you write this piece about psychologically how we as people normalize Trump? Because we have to.
- [72:07]
Tim Miller
Like, it's just part of JBL just wrote that last week.
- [72:10]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I know. See, sometimes I do read the newsletters and that's a good point about the human condition.
- [72:17]
Tim Miller
Yeah, yeah, the contrarian thing. Just one other just we can let people out on this enraging facts. The other element of the podcast, since JBL won't watch, I just want to see his mind. I just want to see his like eyeballs bulge. We had also an exchange where he was lamenting that the elites weren't respectful enough of the job creators and the self made men and that the elites had disrespected, you know, Elon and them. And I can at that point I did have to interrupt and I was like, well, wait a minute, will you guys? Your podcast is all billionaires. You are the elites. And he was like, well, actually I'm not a billionaire yet, but no, when I'm talking about the elites, I'm not talking about us. I'm talking about the people that went to Ivy League schools and are journalists for New York magazine. Oh, got it. So the $75,000 a year journalist living in the JD Vance makes fun of is gets back to that thing. It's like the childless cat lady that lives in a one bedroom apartment in New York that makes $70,000 a year and writes for New York magazine and is dating on hinge is an elite. And that person is condescending to the trace commas man that has his own jet and gets to fly to the president's event, who is a real salt of the earth person.
- [73:39]
Sarah Longwell
These guys just got stuffed in lockers all their lives and they can't get over it.
- [73:43]
Tim Miller
I mean, that is really. You could spend a lot of time in psychiatric care kind of working through that maybe, and never even come out the other side. Maybe.
- [73:54]
JVL
Good luck, America.
- [73:56]
Tim Miller
See you on the road. See in Philly, it's going to be so fun.
- [73:59]
Sarah Longwell
It's going to be so fun. Jvl, Tim and I, we are going to be on a bus together for hours. We're gonna release lots of fun, weird buddy content and stop at some sheets and some wawas. It's gonna be great. All the souls are. All the shows are sold out, so you can't come.
- [74:16]
Tim Miller
But you know, you can come hang out outside. You can wait for us. You can throw like. Like the Beatles. Yeah. You know, we can do something.
- [74:25]
JVL
We'll tell you how much fun we're having without you.
- [74:27]
Tim Miller
Yeah, that.