Epstein Scandal Keeps Shaking Trumpworld

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Next Level – "Epstein Scandal Keeps Shaking Trumpworld"

Release Date: July 16, 2025

Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last (JVL) of The Bulwark

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1. Introduction to the Epstein Scandal Impact

The episode delves into the ongoing repercussions of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal within Trump’s political sphere. Sarah Longwell initiates the discussion by highlighting that, for the first time, reporters are directly questioning Donald Trump about his connections to Epstein.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [00:00]: "Trump is getting himself in trouble in the gaggles right now because there are actually reporters for the first time asking him about this."

2. Trump's Response and Media Narratives

Jonathan V. Last (JVL) provides an analysis of Trump's latest rhetoric surrounding the Epstein scandal. Trump dismisses the allegations as the "Jeffrey Epstein Hoax," emphasizing his disdain for Democrats and labeling their concerns as unfounded attacks.

Notable Quote:

JVL [03:32]: "Donald J. Trump ... is now calling it the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax with a capital capital H."

Tim Miller echoes this sentiment by addressing former listeners of conservative platforms who feel betrayed by Trump's self-serving actions, inviting them to join The Bulwark as a new community for informed political discourse.

3. Dissatisfaction and Potential Shift in Trump's Support Base

Sarah Longwell contends that the Epstein scandal represents a significant breach of trust between Trump and his supporters. She argues that unlike previous issues where Trump positioned himself as an outsider combating the establishment, his current handling of the scandal undermines the very foundation of his appeal.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [05:32]: "This now has Trump at the center of it. It has like, his whole reason d'etre for why a whole bunch of people voted for him is because he was going to blow the lid off of the deep state."

JVL counters by suggesting that the public may primarily view the Epstein case as a tool to tarnish individuals they already oppose, rather than a genuine concern about the scandal itself.

4. Trust in Trump and Political Implications

Tim Miller introduces the concept of a "breach of trust," proposing that Trump's handling of the Epstein scandal may have lasting effects on his ability to maintain control over his base. He speculates that if supporters begin to question Trump's integrity, it could lead to a fragmentation of his coalition.

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller [08:06]: "There's been a breach of trust that might not sound like people are, oh, I'm off Trump. I'm for whatever Pete Buttigieg now. But ... I no longer am going to just ride or die."

Sarah Longwell reinforces the importance of transparency and accountability, emphasizing that Trump’s initial stance on the Epstein issue had built a unique trust with his supporters. Her analysis suggests that failing to follow through on these promises erodes that trust, potentially diminishing Trump's political influence.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [13:34]: "Donald Trump's age showing and them trying to cover it up with makeup ... if he's just a regular politician covering things up, what was the point of him?"

5. Conspiracy Theories and Media Influence

The conversation touches upon various conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein, including allegations of Mossad involvement and connections to other political figures. JVL critiques the rationality behind these theories, while Sarah argues that Trump's promises to expose deep-seated corruption are central to his supporters' loyalty.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [16:38]: "Donald Trump was different ... he was really gonna go uncover all this stuff."

6. Physical Appearance and Public Perception of Trump

A lighter yet pertinent discussion ensues regarding Trump's physical appearance, particularly his hand's condition and use of makeup to mask signs of aging. JVL speculates humorously about Trump’s health, suggesting that observable changes could impact public perception.

Notable Quote:

JVL [40:19]: "He's like undead. Is he about to be dead? Does he have leprosy?"

Sarah counters by attributing Trump's appearance to natural aging and strategic makeup application, positing that while these changes are noteworthy, they do not overshadow the more significant political implications of the Epstein scandal.

7. Gerrymandering and Political Strategy

Shifting focus, the hosts examine the issue of gerrymandering, specifically in Texas. Tim Miller explains the complexities and potential pitfalls of redrawing congressional maps in an already gerrymandered state. He warns that aggressive redistricting could backfire, leading to the unintended loss of Republican seats.

Notable Quote:

Tim Miller [62:11]: "Texas is really playing with fire. ... you might end up accidentally unelecting Dan Crenshaw, God willing."

Sarah Longwell emphasizes the importance of fair representation, criticizing both parties for their manipulation of district boundaries. She advocates for transparency and equal opportunity in redistricting processes to ensure genuine democratic representation.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [64:46]: "Communities deserve to have representation."

8. Inflation and Economic Concerns

The discussion also covers recent inflation data, with Sarah presenting statistics indicating a significant rise in the consumer price index. She argues that inflation remains a crucial issue affecting Trump's approval ratings, while JVL maintains that economic concerns are often politicized and not universally prioritized by voters.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [59:06]: "The consumer price index rose 2.7% from last year... the disapprove has jumped from 41% to 59.5%."

JVL counters by suggesting that voters’ perception of economic issues is influenced by partisan biases, leading them to downplay inflation concerns under Republican leadership.

9. Conclusion and Forward Look

As the episode wraps up, the hosts acknowledge the complexity of the Epstein scandal's impact on Trump's political standing. They anticipate ongoing discussions and scrutiny in future episodes, underscoring the scandal's significance in shaping the political landscape.

Notable Quote:

Sarah Longwell [36:14]: "...nobody thinks that Trump voters are bigger idiots than Donald Trump himself."

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Summary Insights:

• Breach of Trust: The Epstein scandal marks a potential turning point in Trump’s relationship with his base, challenging the foundational trust built on promises to expose deep-state corruption.

• Media Narratives: Trump's labeling of the Epstein allegations as a hoax reflects his broader strategy of delegitimizing opposition narratives.

• Conspiracy Theories: The integration of conspiracy theories into political discourse complicates the public's understanding and perception of scandals.

• Gerrymandering Concerns: Aggressive redistricting efforts in states like Texas may lead to unintended political consequences, highlighting the delicate balance required in maintaining fair representation.

• Economic Issues: Inflation remains a significant concern influencing public opinion, although its impact is often viewed through a partisan lens.

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This episode of The Next Level offers a critical examination of how the Epstein scandal is affecting Trump’s political influence, the loyalty of his supporters, and broader electoral strategies. The hosts provide a nuanced discussion, blending political analysis with observations on media influence and voter behavior.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

Trump is getting himself in trouble in the gaggles right now because there are actually reporters for the first time asking him about this.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. And like Noel and Liam Gallagher, we are back together again. It's an amazing, exciting reunion.

[Tim Miller]

Hey, mate.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Tim, welcome home.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah looks as. Rest, rested. Sarah. Sarah looks.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Carry this over into the show.

[Tim Miller]

Fresh. I think Sarah looks fresh because she's just been chilling. Good to see her again, you know? It's good to see her.

[Sarah Longwell]

What? I don't even understand what this accusation is. You were on vacation.

[Tim Miller]

I'm just saying, you look rusty.

[Sarah Longwell]

You were on vacation. Okay, yeah. You were on vacation.

[Tim Miller]

Check. You didn't check in with me. I didn't hear from you. It's just been a while since I've seen you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know. I left you alone because you were on vacation.

[Tim Miller]

Thank you. That was nice. That's good.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't understand every. Okay, did you need me to. What do you need from me?

[Tim Miller]

I don't check in. How's it going? How's vacation? What's up?

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, that's what the shows are for, for us to catch up.

[Tim Miller]

How you been?

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, fine. I've been great. I'm crushing it over here.

[Tim Miller]

That's nice.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

All right.

[Sarah Longwell]

How was your vacation?

[Tim Miller]

People were awesome.

[Sarah Longwell]

People are not happy you were gone.

[Tim Miller]

Well, that's good. I'm glad. Glad to be wanted. It's nice to be needed. Feels good. We're glad you're back, you know, doesn't. It's like when you come home and you're, you know, when your kid comes and gives you a big hug for the first time in a while, you're like, this is nice. It's nice to be wanted. I was getting some virtual hugs from people. That's. That's nice. Not from Sarah, but from. From others. So anyway, jv, don't we have a show to get to?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Jeffrey Epstein is happening. It's happening right now. It is real and it is spectacular. And a few moments before we stepped on to tape this show on Wednesday morning, your favorite president. Many people are saying the greatest president, the strongest president of all of our lifetimes. Donald J. Trump went on to Truth Social and debuted a new line of attack. He is now calling it the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax with a capital capital H. And he says now that. Hold on, let me. Let me get right to the thing of it. Unlike Republicans, Democrats stick. That's in brackets Democrats stick together like glue. Their new scam is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein hoax. And my past supporters past is in all caps. Have bought into this quote, bullshit hook, line and sinker. They haven't learned their lesson and probably never will. And he goes on to say that these weaklings here, he's speaking about his former past supporters. Continue forward and do the Democrats work. Don't even think about talking of our incredible and unprecedented success because I don't want their support anymore. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Make America great again. So that's I guess we're gonna up the loyalty tests.

[Tim Miller]

I'd just like to take this moment before we get into Donald Trump to issue a warm welcome to the listeners of Bannon's war room, of the Charlie Kirk Podcast, of the Candace Owens Show, Tucker Carlson Show. If you have been over listening to those really compelling content creators over the past few years and thought that Donald Trump had your back and have now been disappointed by him and now see that he actually only cares about himself, I just want to let you just say I'm rolling out the red carpet for you. The water is warm. You can sign up for the Bulwark. Plus it's only 10 bucks a month. You get bonus content here and we welcome you. We're gonna have live events and I can't wait to co mingle some of the former Trump supporters who bought into this quote, bullshit who now have been exiled. And we can commingle you with our kind of, you know, Lilly from the Upper east side and the whole food shoppers that come to the Bulwark. And so you're welcome here.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're all never Trump now.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. We're all. He doesn't even, he doesn't want you. He doesn't love you anymore.

[Tim Miller]

He doesn't.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

It's going to work. You guys are having your fun, but this is going to work.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, so this is obviously the conversation we need to have. I'm prepared for this. I'm prepared for JBL to say this, this doesn't matter. Everybody's going to go back to Trump. And I would like to wrestle with this because I obviously don't think that. I really don't. But it is going to test something. So here's there's layers to this. Okay, so Trump has been calling the Mega Maga influencers, called Charlie Kirk to back him off, called Megan Kelly to back her off. And you can see it. He called. Who else is he called that? We can tell Benny Johnson, I think he called.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Well, did he get to be.

[Sarah Longwell]

Huh. Well, Benny, I mean, I assume they reached out to him. I mean, I think they're going to everybody. But here's the thing, and this is. You guys remember back in the National Reviews never Trump magazine days, do you remember this?

[Tim Miller]

What is that? What's the name of the outlet you're talking about?

[Sarah Longwell]

National Review Online.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

They used to matter. They used to matter. But here, here's what happened to them. They had opinions and they thought that people came and read them to get their interesting takes. They learned a lesson then in those early years of Trump that actually what people wanted from National Review was for them to back their dog, Trump, back their guy. And if they weren't going to do it, they were going to go elsewhere. And in fact, many of them did. Leaving National Review to try to kind of split the baby. Right, with their anti. Anti thing to try to hold on to some audience. Tough to do. Tough to do. Here's what Charlie Kirk is about to figure out. Was the audience there for Charlie Kirk? Are they loyal to Charlie Kirk or. And are they, are they. And are they loyal to Trump or did they want to be pumped full of these conspiracy theories that they were being fed? And if they don't get them, they're going somewhere else. And that is going to put Charlie Kirk as this middle layer, as like the new mediating voice between Trump and the voters. Are people going to tolerate it or is the base going to set the tone? Trump has always been seen as controlling the base. Right. His power emanates from the base if the base turns on him. Because I think we're going to see a split. This is my. I think we're going to see a split from the influencers and I think the audience is going to continue to demand Epstein. I think they're going to be mad at Trump and I think they're going to be looking for influencers that agree with them. And so I think some of them are going to go Chase, are going to go live with the audience, Tim Pool, whatever. I think others are going to atrophy in their media, in their mediator role as people who are just like, we're just trusting Pam Bondi, we're just trusting Cash Patel, we're just trusting Donald Trump. Donald Trump got ratioed for that. So I don't think this is going to jbl.

[Tim Miller]

Before we get to you, I want to maybe offer a. Because Sarah kept using that word trust. And maybe a less, a less like, oh, this will matter politically, like they're going to abandon Trump point of view. And maybe there's something short of that that might, that this might be a real inflection point for, in a way that matters politically. And that is that like their trust in Trump is shaken in a way that has downstream effects that it's hard to predict on how much he can control them. And so like I said, I always go back to this conversation I was having with Jeff Rowe is the, the Republican strategist guy. When I was writing, I forget if it was for the book or for an article I was writing seven years ago. And, and he was, and I was asking him, I was like, what is the difference between the Trump and Bush? Like, why has Trump been able to be so resilient where Bush wasn't with Republican based voters and, and Roe would point out, he's like, you just look at the numbers. Like when Bush got less popular, he got less popular across the board. You know, like, if people are upset with Iraq, Republicans were, Independents were, Democrats were like, Democrats were more mad than Republicans. But like, you know, the numbers kind of all moved together. He's like, that never happened with Trump. That was where I originally got the Saddam Hussein numbers. Like, if you look at Trump, he's like, Trump has Saddam Hussein numbers in, in, in rural areas and among his base. And, and so if his numbers go down a little bit, like the suburban Republicans, okay, but like, it's not happening across the board. And part of that was based on this trust. Like, people were like, I don't trust regular politicians. I trust him. Like, I specifically trust him. And if that gets cracked, then maybe that opens the door to him, to his, you know, number like him being treated more like a normal politician. Like his numbers being more responsive to what a normal politician's numbers are because people are like, wait a minute, I don't, I don't know if this is recoverable for him. Like, of like, I don't believe you anymore. Like, you told me that you were going to get these, these bad guys, these pedophiles, and now you're telling me that I'm the bad one, that I, that I'm wrong because I cared about this. I don't, I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen, but like this, I'm trying to think of something else that, that, that is analogous to this where he's like, let down his own people that much and it's hard to think of one and for it to happen right around the same time as the Iran bombings and Giving weapons to Ukraine. I don't know. I guess I'm just saying I'm going to be re. Engaging with Bannon's war room and I'm going to be keeping an open ear on what is happening because I think it's possible, I'm not predicting it, that there's been a breach of trust that might not sound like people are, oh, I'm off Trump. I'm for whatever Pete Buttigieg now. But no, but it's like, well, I no longer am going to just ride or die. And that would weaken him at some level. No.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

May I offer a counter thesis?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, of course.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Okay, so I think there are a couple category errors being made here. The first is I never make a category error.

[Tim Miller]

The people. Okay, yeah, I might be wrong, but I always get my categories correct. Okay.

[Sarah Longwell]

The category is wrong.

[Tim Miller]

So I'm sorry.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

The first is that people care about the Epstein case qua. Epstein case. And I don't think that's true. I don't think they ever cared about any of these things except as they were weapons to be deployed against the people they hate. What they care about is the people they hate. And the people they hate are like Democrats and black people and whatnot. And like pedophilia and accusations of Lolita Express and the Jeffrey Epstein Island. Those things were only things they cared about as means to hurt the people they didn't like. Secondly, why, why would this be different than the insurrection? Right? I mean, Trump lost some support following the insurrection. Like he chopped like 20 points approval even among self identified Republicans, briefly. And then it came back because, you.

[Tim Miller]

Know, just really quick, here's why that's different. Because people that were mad at him over the instruction were the National Review, Wall Street Journal types, not the.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tim Miller]

That's what's different about it. Maybe it will end up not being different, but I'm just saying, you asked what was different, that's what's different.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Okay, well, I mean, again, my. Let's, let's say he does lose some trust or lose something. All he has to do then is go out and like say the N word and then watch the rest of the world go, holy crap, the President of the United States is like you know, calling black people the N word. And all these people rush back to, oh, you and your woke stuff, trying to cancel.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, hold on.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

We'll all be back on set side. Maybe all be back on side.

[Sarah Longwell]

Listen, I would. I concede that Trump could wriggle out of this. Now here's the thing though, I don't think he wriggles out of this without putting together something that looks like new information. And, and let me, let me, let me tell you why I think categorically, like as a category matter and on this issue of trust, what Tim and I are saying is right or, or more importantly, actually why you're, you thinking that nobody really cares about this is wrong.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I think this is like the wall. It's just like the wall.

[Sarah Longwell]

See, I don't, and here, here's why.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

The wall was never built. They didn't care about the wall. They just wanted to hate the people they wanted to hate.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, they wanted the wall was a stand in for taking immigration seriously, which they believe.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

It's a stand in for hating Democrats.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, it's a stand in actually for something that is deeply central to Trump's mythology, okay. Which is there is a uni party, an establishment, a global cabal of people who will not tell you the truth about things. This is, don't listen. There's one thing I am hitting pay dirt on eight years of listening to Trump voters, okay, which is I have listened to them over and over express this sense that Donald Trump is not a normal politician and he is their guy on the inside, right? The reason that they don't hold him to normal moral standards that they hold all their politicians to is that they're like, yeah, he's super flawed, but he's going to show us all the things that all these politicians for all these years have been keeping from us. Whether, and you can, is it QAnon? Is it 9? 11 was an inside job? Is it the Jewish space? Like, whatever, is it there? Were there five shooters on the grassy knoll? Were, you know, are there aliens at Area 51? It doesn't matter what your conspiracy is, but if you believe, and I'm sorry, but you can remember this from our old days as Republicans. Distrust in the government has always been an essential place. Now, it did not manifesting the COVID.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Vaccine, but they forgave him for developing the COVID vaccine.

[Sarah Longwell]

I, I, this is, I, I'm sorry, I do not think that that is the same. I think that this is too much about the reason that they said, I know Trump lies, but I, I think he's telling the truth. Is what they meant is he was going to take a wrecking ball to the establishment, take a wrecking ball to all the people who've been hiding stuff from them, the regular people, and he was going to populate his whole cabinet with a bunch of people, Cash Patel and Dan Bongino, people who've always been saying to them, they're lying to you. They're lying to you. Listen to Tucker. Listen to the right wing guys. This is thematic through everything. They're lying to you. I tell you to the truth. This is why this trust matter or the breach on Epstein. You got to understand that the way Trump got around being photographed with Epstein, on video with Epstein, having quotes about Epstein, was that he went on offense on this issue. He said, no, we're going to show you, come hell or high water, what's in there. For him to not do it now is a deep breach of trust and is for a part of the party, a denial of the essential reason why they trusted Trump and wanted him in there in the first place. Because now, if he's just a regular politician covering things up, what was the point of him? And there will be people who will carry that forward.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I want to believe the COVID thing is a better analogy than January 6th. Right. Because that really is like Trump being on the wrong side of his actual. And like, when else have you heard Trump get booed at his own right? Like, the closest thing to the tpusa.

[Sarah Longwell]

He moved on.

[Tim Miller]

That he did.

[Sarah Longwell]

He kind of scooted away from his vaccine stuff.

[Tim Miller]

He did, of course. And he ended up hiring RFK Jr. To run the HHS. So, you know, you see, you have to do something. He can maneuver. Nobody saying he can't maneuver. He can fucking maneuver. I just think that, like, man saying, I don't want your support anymore, like, directly. It is the kind of thing that people mention over and over again is all it is the kind of thing that stick in certain people's head. I don't know. Here's the other thing that I think is. Is worth noting about all this, is in the context of all these other conspiracies that are like actual conspiracies, not like the Jeffrey Epstein thing, which I think is maybe real and maybe. Maybe he was murdered in jail. I don't know. The other ones, the Hunter laptop, the Russia hoax, like the Biden crime family, Comey, doesn't this kind of just open this can of worms to. If I'm just Grace Bannon listener, Joe Bannon listener, I'm like, I got Cash Patel in there. I got my fucking guy in there. I've watched 50 video segments with him. He's running the FBI. Trump is in charge. I can't blame the deep state on this. Arrested anybody? They haven't got one collar, not one Indictment. I don't know. Again, I just think that that stuff over time, don't feel sorry to be like, what, what is this? What are we doing? Like, there's like, there are a group of people that wanted that this is to your point, jbl, they wanted the liberals to be punished. No, liberals are getting punished. Who's being, who's being owned right now?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Look at how upset they are about the mass DICE agents and, you know, all the brown people being sent to El Salvador. The liberals are being super punished. No, but I'm saying is the people you're talking about see the rest. I want to say the left, but isn't the left like, they look at the rest of the mainstream world screaming about due process and stuff and they're getting their. They're getting the cruelty they wanted. They just aren't getting maybe all of it. Look, I want to believe you guys. I think you're ascribing too much, like logical rigor to. This is a logical processes which are more like a barbaric Yelp, right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And he's denying that they're barbaric.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, he's not giving them their Yelp.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's the difference about this one. It's not. And here's the thing. Like, you know, it's funny because obviously I get a little frustrated with JBL when he talks about voters being idiots and whatever, but nobody thinks that Trump voters are bigger idiots than Donald Trump himself.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Oh, yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Donald Trump thinks these people are such morons that they can't put it together that Epstein killed himself while Donald Trump was president and that James Comey. Like, I, you can see it. You can see people kind of saying, yeah, why didn't Democrats release this if it had damaging things about Trump while they were in there? But also they're like, but, you know, I don't think Comey and Obama wrote this like that. I don't, I don't know that that's making sense from it. Imagine how deep you are in this conspiracy for Trump than to throw out a timeline that makes literally no sense. And for people to be like, oh, yeah, no, I think, I think Comey did it. Nobody thinks that.

[Tim Miller]

I want to, I want to throw one more, one more pitch at you, jv. I want to try to get you over to the happy side. Okay. Because maybe we've been focusing too much on the war room listeners and the Candace Owens listeners, maybe, and Charlie Kirk. Maybe these people are all coming back. Like, they've all come back before. Before. But you agree we all agree that there was a crank realignment between 2019 and 2024 that brought new people into the Trump coalition. New people that were not 2016 Red Hat people. New people came in. It offset the, you know, our people. College educated suburbanites went out, right? Like, that's. That's, like, essentially how we won. Those. Those guys aren't artful. Like, they're like, what the Joe Rogan people. They like, this is their lifeblood, the Andrew Schultz pod, the flagrant podcast listeners. Like, this is their. This is. This is the. This is the stir. The straw that stirs the drink for those guys. And, like, they don't have as long of a track record, as you point out, of just coming back. Of just coming back around as everybody else. And there's a chance that those guys just start to be like, all right, Trump's. You can already hear it. Trump is just like one of them. I thought it was. Again, it's not them becoming Democrats. It's like, I thought he was different. I thought that I knew he's a politician. He was lying to me a little bit, but I thought that he was really gonna go uncover all this stuff. And turns out he's just no different than Hillary and Bush. And they all, you know, whatever. Like, you can hear fucking Joe Rogan saying that.

[Sarah Longwell]

And by the way, I actually don't like his. I actually don't like what he's doing on immigration. Like, that is a sort of a different group of people where they are like, why are these ICE people masked? Because these are kind of like libertarian ish bros. Like, that's. These guys are pro choice. They are. They don't care about gay marriage, but they do want to be able to say, like, they, you know, oh, we.

[Tim Miller]

Got to bleep that. We don't even get demonetized. The one word YouTube. And even in Trump's America woke, YouTube will not let the members of the LGBTQIA+ community say the f. Slur on our own platform. Outrageous.

[Sarah Longwell]

It is outrageous. Because you know what? This is? This is.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

That's why people.

[Sarah Longwell]

We're allowed to say it. We're allowed to say it.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

That's why I had to vote for Trump, guys.

[Tim Miller]

Sorry.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know. Wait. Now I've lost my train of thought. Other than these. These people are a different kind of set. So I did a focus group. Tim, I don't know if you. What you were doing on vacation, if.

[Tim Miller]

You not listening to the focus group.

[Sarah Longwell]

Did you listen to this? Did you listen to this?

[Tim Miller]

No, I listened to nothing. I listened to. I didn't. I didn't consume a single second of your.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can I take a victory lap? Can I take a victory lap on something?

[Tim Miller]

Of course I. I don't know.

[Sarah Longwell]

So I was on with Sam and jbl and I was losing my mind about what a big story I thought this was going to be. I was saying, I'm telling you. And I was like, everybody needs to push into this. This is a category. This is categorically different from the other things. And Democrats need to pick this up and start pushing it. It took them almost all week for them to realize, yes, this is not a distraction. They should go push on this. Not because it is. And I was, at the time, I was sort of like, I think Democrats don't want to touch this because they think it's gutter. They think it's tawdry, right? They think it's like, oh, this is more of Trump's gross stuff. And I'm like, no. The Attorney General of the United States, the highest officer of our laws, promised that this was in there while she was ag, not while she was out making podcasts while she was aging. They all told us explosive stuff was coming. They told all their people explosive stuff was coming. Donald Trump's number one donor and advisor said, he's in the Epstein files. Like, that was a big thing. Like, he dropped that bomb in the middle of things. Okay. And he's also out there, by the way, war room listeners saying, Bannon's in the Epstein files. Which maybe. I don't know. My point being, there's a lot.

[Tim Miller]

I don't think it's working down there anymore.

[Sarah Longwell]

There's a lot happening in this fever swamp. And the fever swamp is big. Qanon was big. And like, they're all kind of overlapping.

[Tim Miller]

Let's just deal. Line the cranks. That's all we're asking for, just a de alignment of the cranks.

[Sarah Longwell]

These are people who wouldn't otherwise vote. These are actually. These are low info voters in the sense that they do not follow a lot of policy, but they go deep on things like these conspiracies. They otherwise wouldn't vote because they think they're all lying to them. Donald Trump was different for this reason.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Future Mark Cuban voters, he brought people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Out or they don't vote. Yeah, great.

[Tim Miller]

Don't vote. Great. That's great. I don't need for you to vote. All right?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Before.

[Sarah Longwell]

Why can't you just be happy? What's wrong with you?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

You've met me.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know this should Bring you joy before it does.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

It does. I. I'm. I'm all in. Look, enjoy the ride. Gather you rosebuds. I'm just saying let's not go crazy here and think that this is gonna matter. We should absolutely enjoy it. We should push into it all.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, I'm gonna. I'm gonna throw down my marker here. We are still gonna be talking about this on next week's show. You know why? Because Ghislaine Maxwell is saying that she wants to testify before.

[Tim Miller]

So what about next summer show?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Hold that.

[Tim Miller]

What about next summer show? Jeffrey Epstein. Next June.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I want to talk about his land Gizzler. I have no idea, Ghislaine. But first we have to hear from you, Sarah, to talk about our sponsor, Quince.

[Sarah Longwell]

So this show is sponsored by Quints. With summer in full swing, I feel that familiar urge to refresh my closet. I can't wear polos with pop collars every single day. But I'm trying not to waste money on pieces I'll only wear once or for just one season. That's where Quince comes in. Their clothes are timeless, feel luxurious, look elevated, and the quality is way beyond what you'd expect for the price. It's the kind of wardrobe upgrade that just clicks. Think 100% European linen tops starting at $30. Washable silk dresses and skirts and soft cotton sweaters. Versatile warm weather pieces you'll reach for again and again. The best part, everything with Quince is half off of similar brands. By working directly with top artisans and cutting out the middleman, Quince gives you luxury without the markup. And Quince only works with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices and premium fabrics and finishes. Love that. Keep it ethical, guys. I got my favorite leather jacket from Quince. It's brown. I wear it in the fall and all winter. I also have a lot of the things like the little camis that I wear under my blazers come from Quince. Their stuff is great for all seasons. Especially, they're breathable summer linens. I'm super into linen this summer. It's so, so hot outside. All I want is clothes that do not stick to my body. Give your summer closet an upgrade with quince. Go to quince.com/the next level. All one word for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That is Q, U, I, N C to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com TheNextLevel all right, so is this.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Move to bring Ghislaine Maxwell before Congress, Is that a way to tie off the story? Like, you bring her in, she tells some version of a story which they can then sell as. See, we got to the bottom of all of it. You heard from her now I hear there's a caravan coming up from South America. Let's go. Pay attention to that.

[Tim Miller]

I think it's the theory, but I don't. Look, that's just not how these things work. It's. The Trump strategy is better than that, if that's their strategy. Because it's just. I think Sam and I were talking about this. Like, the craziest thing that I don't get that has really sunk in for people is that the insane Benghazi oversight hearings, there are like 40 of those, like, led to figuring out that Hillary Clinton had another email because she was emailing something about Benghazi, which led to figuring out that she had a server, which led to figuring out that, oh, wait, whatever. Huma was emailing with Wiener, who had a computer. Right. Like, which led to the Comey letter years later. Right. Like Ghislaine Maxwell testifying, you know, only would add, like nine new threads to the story about different possible, you know, donors and involvements in this and whatever. I mean, I don't, I don't.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I don't think that she just tell whatever story they tell her to tell because why they could say to her, boy, it would be a shame if you wound up committing suicide in your cell.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Because she wants a pardon from Trump again. But then all that is a know. Okay, sure. I don't. I just don't. There's no clean way out of this, I don't think.

[Sarah Longwell]

And hold on, Tim, Tim asked a good question because I said we're going to definitely still be talking about this next week. And Tim asked question, will we be talking about it next summer? Here's how we would end up talking about it next summer, which is the Democrats are saying, give us the House and we'll hold hearings to find out what's happened with the Epstein files. I am telling you guys, here's the thing. Here's the thing. I am sorry that politics is like this. Do I wish that we were having a very precise debate about cuts to Medicaid, about what we're going to do about Ukraine debt, about Ukraine, yes, I do all those things. There is a reason that gay marriage and abortion and things like this end up at the center. And trans issues and sports, they are very accessible pieces of information for every voter to grab onto. These things hit differently And Donald Trump has always understood how to make politics accessible to people who don't care about the depths of policy. They care about the personal impacts of policy, but they don't care about talking about it that much. This, this is the kind of thing that lands grabs people's attention. And if Democrats listen, I am not for one second saying that Democrats shouldn't do kitchen table issues. They should. They need to talk about lowering prices, which people really care about too. They gotta talk about lowering prices. This matters.

[Tim Miller]

Cutlery.

[Sarah Longwell]

They gotta. Cutlery.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Kitchen table issues.

[Sarah Longwell]

Kitchen table issues. Right. Talk about.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

What's the most bougie political analogy ever?

[Sarah Longwell]

Let's take Tim's. Let's take Tim's thing. They should talk about the knives, they should talk about the forks, they should talk about the plates. But the meal is going to be Epstein. That's what people are going to want to eat.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

And so a lot like voters are stupid.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm saying human beings are attracted to stories that include scandal, politicians getting to the bottom of it. I am telling you, this is the kind of thing. And there's a reason, like, we haven't even made this very, very key point. We all know that I wasn't paying a ton of attention to the Epstein stuff because I just.

[Tim Miller]

And I'm excited for you that you're. You're just like a kid who's like, learning a new piece of information. Like Mars, there's a red planet. You know, like, the joy of never.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Allowed her to have sugar and suddenly someone gave you a box of pixie sticks.

[Sarah Longwell]

I wasn't allowed to read it all as a kid. And then when I was. I watched all of them and I was like, oh, this is good. I wasn't allowed to watch these. These are scary. Anyway, the reason that I am dug in on this now is that I personally did not think that there was probably a huge. There. There. I've never thought that there. You know, there's no pedophile ring under the pizza shop. There's no Qanon, whatever. That whole thing blew up. This is different because it has Trump at the center of it. It has like, his whole reason d' etre for why a whole bunch of people voted for him is because he was going to blow the lid off of the deep state. How. When did we learn about the deep state? Trying to control Trump. Okay. And also his whole cabinet. It's not just Trump. They all ran on it. They. Why is Cash Patel the FBI director? It's because of this. It's because he said he was going to expose all this stuff and put it out there. That's why Dan Bongino is in there. Donald Trump, I think. And that. Sorry. Which brings me to my last point. Donald Trump suddenly seems guilty. How he is behaving is so weird. It is genuinely weird. This thing like this. The last couple bleeds he put out are both extremely long in a like, thou doth protest too much kind of way. And also the like, if you guys keep talking about this I am done with you type thing. And now you got Tucker take, like, you got a whole group of people taking the anti Semitic angle. Epstein is a Mossad agent. So I do.

[Tim Miller]

Maxwell's dad was massaged. Have you. This is where I'm at. I'm Googling Robert Maxwell. Do you know he was Mossad. And also she, like, bought the company that has all of our textbooks. Are you ready for conspiracy theories now? Robert Maxwell bought, like Macmillan, which owns, you know, McGraw Hill also. Yeah.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Indoctrination of our children.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Well, I have good news for you.

[Tim Miller]

Great.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Tim. Which is that on Thursday, Tucker is sitting down for an interview with. I'm going to read from Tucker's tweet the true history of the Jeffrey Epstein case from America's most honest historian.

[Tim Miller]

No, not Martyr Maid.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Darrell Cooper. No, live Thursday, 8pm Eastern.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know who that is.

[Tim Miller]

He was the guy that did the. That was like Winston Churchill was the real evil.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, yeah, sure.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

So he's the Nazi lover. So, you know, that's too bad perspective. That's great.

[Tim Miller]

That's too bad. Because Tucker's been making some points. Did you want. You're. Sarah, you're going to blanch at this. But I, I think that every Democratic politician should watch Tucker's TPUSA speech and.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Do a reaction video.

[Tim Miller]

No, no. And steal some of his talk and steal some of his shit. Oh, Tucker's like. Tucker, right. The speech is like 30%. Wink, wink. Racist, anti immigrant stuff. And like 10%. I'm just asking questions. Maybe 20%. I'm just asking questions. But it's like 50%. Like, I don't know, y'. All. He just is very casual about it. He's like, I'm just a guy that wants the city's streets to be clean and my kids to be able to buy a house and these guys. And. And what is Trump doing instead? He's protecting the billionaire pedophiles. He's like, we're doing, you know, we got all the billionaires in the cabinet and Goldman Sachs and he's like, I don't. I don't think it's unreasonable for a middle, you know, somebody working hard, middle class to be able to own a house by the time they're 27. I'm not a socialist. I'm. If people want to make money, that's great, but I don't. I think. I don't. I just.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I think that's 27. Who can do that.

[Tim Miller]

Exactly.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's his point.

[Tim Miller]

That's his point. And I also.

[Sarah Longwell]

Guys, Tucker. President. Tucker's going to run for president, and he's going to be formidable.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah, of course he is.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I've been saying that for years.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Anyway, that's an aside.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

All right, well, hold on.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm sorry, are we. Can we not talk about this for the whole hour and then maybe make.

[Tim Miller]

36 minutes of Epstein was enough for you?

[Sarah Longwell]

No, I got.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I got one.

[Sarah Longwell]

I got a couple other good 36.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Minutes on another conspiracy theory, but if you'd like to continue on this one, that's fine.

[Sarah Longwell]

Only one very small point, which is that I have seen now Hakeem Jeffries and some Democrats are starting to come out and push this. I am. And I. And I've seen a couple of media. Trump is getting himself in trouble in the gaggles right now because there are actually reporters for the first time asking him about this. And I just would like people to freaking approach this issue the same with the same zeal and commitment that they approached Joe Biden's age. That's all I'm asking from our mainstream media sources.

[Tim Miller]

Good luck.

[Sarah Longwell]

Can you please. And here's the thing. It was there. Was there, there. I'm not. It was not illegitimate for you to pursue a story about Joe Biden's mental acuity, and it is not illegitimate for you to pursue this Jeffrey Epperstein story. Thank God Wired is out there doing reporting on the spliced together tape, which apparently has three minutes missing. I don't know. That feels like a thing. Donald Trump was president, then he got his sweetheart deal from a member of Trump's cabinet. Like, guys, there's a lot to follow up on. And if I read another New York Times thing, that is just a summary of the reactions from the political right that doesn't include real reporting, real new information pursued by gathering sources and talking to people. Like, there are a lot of victims of Jeffrey Epstein. There are. I just. I don't understand why we're not getting more answers than we are, but the President of the United States sure shit doesn't want to talk about this. So it feels like the kind of thing you guys should ask a lot about.

[Tim Miller]

Excited to get Sarah in the manosphere right now. She's just loving all the Epstein stuff. I have a Hakeem Jeffries note. The words were good. If you read them in paper, Words were good. The Sesame street hip hop as I like talking style. Is there a way to kind of deprogram somebody for that or is that. We just kind of stuck with that? He does kind of like a sing songy, rhymey kind of thing, or it's like, kind of like a chance.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

No, that doesn't sound good.

[Tim Miller]

What doesn't sound good?

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

What you're describing.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, I'm describing. Yeah.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I did not. I did not hear the actual words.

[Tim Miller]

Coming out of it. It's okay. It was like when he went up there, he's like, a is for Apple and, you know, B is for whatever. You know?

[Sarah Longwell]

You know what I'd like from Democrats? So here's. Here's a thought. Okay? So I'm glad Hakeem came out and said something, and I don't care. I don't care about the cadence of his voice when he said it. Exactly. Although I take your point that I would like Hakeem Jeffries, the Speaker of the House, to be just not the speaker yet. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. The. The House majority or the House Minority Leader.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Future speaker of the House.

[Sarah Longwell]

Future speaker of the House. I would like him and Chuck Schumer and basically everybody who is in leadership to be better at their jobs, be more aggressive. It took him like a full week to get out there and say a thing about this. That being said, I do think Democrats have struggled a little bit about, like, what do we do with Jasmine Crockett? Right. What do we do with some of our very, you know, media friendly, offense type people, but who also put their foot in their mouth. Right? Like, it's not great to go out and be like, all mediocre white men or whatever that, you know, like, she. She doesn't know. She's not always getting it right. This is a good deployment for Jasmine Crockett Turner, like, let her go. Let her cook on this stuff. And I think leadership can. Can kind of do a. They were either lying then or they're lying now. And we should pursue answers, but let Jasmine Crockett go on TV and be like, I want to know this and I want to know this, and I want this. These are what you do with your attack dogs.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I agree And I've got some questions about the three minutes of missing video. And I think that we need answers to all I'm saying.

[Sarah Longwell]

I agree.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Next conspiracy theory. This week we, we had somebody in the pool doing video and they zoomed in on Donald Trump's right hand and something going on there on the back of his hand. It looks like fake skin and makeup and it's like wildly obvious. This is not the first time we, we saw this sort of stuff going on with his hand in both 2019 and 2020. In January of 2024, he had like red spots all over his right hand. I mean, I'm just asking questions, but just what is happening to this 79 year old man? Is he undead? Is he about to be dead? Does he have leprosy? Is he undergoing frequent medical treatments already? Is he getting Peter Thiel vampire youthblood? Boy, Sarah, you do not look happy.

[Tim Miller]

The contouring on the hand is really bad. Also the makeup contouring on the hand really could use a little bit of work. I mean, they made a statement about this. The White House made a statement in February, said it was bruising from shaking too many hands because he shakes the most hands of any person that's ever shaken hands in history.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

When you shake hands, Tim, does somebody put pressure on this part of your.

[Tim Miller]

Outside of my hands? Not usually. I don't do really manly handshakes like Trump and Macron do. Maybe that French hand that Emmanuel Macron gave him really gave him a start and led to some bruising. Yeah, I don't know. It is, it feels, it feels noteworthy and it feels like something we should know about what's happening on the hand.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Sarah, can I convince you why this is important?

[Sarah Longwell]

You can, or you can try, but I would just say, like, I think you answered your own question. This isn't to me a conspiracy theory. Like he's a 79 year old man. Have you been around like, so this is Washington D.C. i'm around a lot of big like late 70s, early 80s men who were lobbyists, whatever. And they get, Mitch McConnell had this, they get these purple blotches on their skin and they, they bruise easily. Like this is just something happens to old men, I presume, old women. And like I just think it's Donald Trump's age showing and them trying to cover it up with makeup. Which is basically what Donald Trump has been doing with his body.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

The entire time he's been in public eye.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Yes. And so this is why I. Okay. So you can see in pictures that his hair is thinning dramatically. You can also see in pictures that the reliance on makeup is increasing. And I feel like we are approaching the point pretty quickly where, and you see this in tin pot dictators, right, all the time, where they, they go to great lengths to make leader look and appear young and vigorous because they don't want anybody to think that they're like a failing old man. We're reaching a point where it's going to be hard to keep that appearance up with Trump. Like, it's going to, it's going to start to be really hard. It's going to be obvious to everybody that he looks like he's embalmed.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know about that.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

No, you don't think so?

[Sarah Longwell]

I. Look, this is just. Donald Trump is, has like an enormous amount of energy. Like, he is out there acting like a crazy person all the time. Big lunatic energy this is. And people trying to try to do this. Like, he doesn't look like Biden did at 79. He just doesn't. And like, to the naked eye, but like, he's also, he is an old man and he's actually probably holding up remarkably well for somebody that old. But you know what happens with old people, it's like they hit a tipping point and then things sort of like, drop quickly. He's has a. Like, the thing is, you see Trump all the time. Like, this is just a fact. Part of the reason that Biden got the rap that he did is because people didn't see that much of him. His staff was kind of moving him along, whatever. As long as Trump is out there all the time being a lunatic, like, he won't get the same treatment that Biden did. But if he starts to show like big physical signs and disappear from view, I do think people will ask those questions. But I think if you're thinking that I would just, I would take any. This is to me as a distraction. I would take every minute and focus on the Epstein stuff over, like, is he covering up like age spots with makeup?

[Tim Miller]

What about the dialysis? Did you see the thing on his leg which maybe has a. He's tying something to his little wiener to help pee. You see that?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know if, if, look, if there's a medical cover up that happens, like, and he's not being, he's not disclosing, like, you know, because he does lie about his health. Like, the weight that they give for him is preposterous. But I just. And I think you're right, jvl, about the way that they prop people up. And I think he will do that for as long as possible. I'm just saying for as long as he's. If he continues to seem as vigorous even though it's funny. I was reading that truth that he put out, like the one that JBL read at the top of the show. If you came down from Mars and were like, the President of the United States wrote this, I mean, it is just insane. It's insane. It sounds like a child.

[Tim Miller]

The problem is he's just like, if you're like, we're coming back up to the next school year, you know, so if we're coming up, we have a new teacher. Everybody's getting a new teacher. If I like, hey, got the news tolose as a new second grade teacher, I go to follow her on social media or him and they posted something like that recently. I'd be calling the principal and being like, we need a different teacher or we're changing schools. Like a lunatic cannot be in charge of a second grade class. Anyone that would post this is obviously a non compos mentis and can't be in charge of this class. So it is a little concerning that that person, the President of the United States.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Well, I, I for one was focusing on purely the visual aspects of all of this, which is that I think the visual aspects of decline are going to become very, very hard to cover up.

[Tim Miller]

He looks worse and he looks better than Biden. So, you know, had the Democrats put up a different last president? Had he been coming off of the Obama heels? But like, if you. Because I'll go, what, what was I on? Oh, I was on Katie Tur yesterday and she was playing clips of him talking about the Obama birth certificate, speaking about Obama from 2011. And it is noticeable like, like both his physical appearance, his cadence, like the decline from 2000 and that's 12 years ago now, you know, but the decline is noticeable for sure.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Yeah, I. He's like a Morton Joe from, from the Mad Max movies. You know, like with, with all the battle armor on, you're like, oh, he looks pretty. But then you see him without. Can you imagine what he. Here's the thing, if he appeared once in public without makeup, his presidency would be over. No, I think this is just indisputably true. Right. If people saw what he really looked like. And you see every once in a while, if you could just go through Getty, right? There are shots and it is weird to me that like the mainstream media never chooses to use these, these shots Right where you can see the gigantic makeup line or like the wind has blown his hair over and you can see, see kind of what's underneath it.

[Tim Miller]

Not a pretty sight.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

He looks half dead. I'm sorry.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's because Voldemort lives in his back and is feeding off of the life force.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

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[Tim Miller]

It is crazy.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

5 o' clock rolls around and you've got to feed them again.

[Tim Miller]

Again. Yeah, I know it's a burden.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

We just did it yesterday. We gonna do it again.

[Sarah Longwell]

I just did it this morning and.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Again at night before I get to the rest of the read. Green Chef helps with that. God bless the people at Green Chef make this summer your healthiest yet with Green chef head to greenchef.com 50next level and use code 50next level to get 50% off your first month, then 20% off for two months with free shipping. That's code 50next [e-mail] 50next level. Sarah, did you see the inflation numbers yesterday?

[Sarah Longwell]

I did, I did. The consumer price index rose 2.7% from last year, the swiftest pace since February, which is slightly where I'm going to be.

[Tim Miller]

The Debbie Downer.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Oh, not with me. This is all Debbie Downer. All Debbie Downer. Dropped in because you know what?

[Tim Miller]

I read newsletter. It seems like you thought that, like the inflation situation was not good.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Oh, it isn't good. And I think nobody cares about it.

[Tim Miller]

Oh, that was.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

You didn't read the newsletter. Super close. That's okay. You're catching up. You're, you're digging out of your, digging out of your email hole. I get that.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know. I guess my point is I kind of disagree with the premise and it's not that bad. The immigration, the inflation number isn't that bad too. Like it's just a ticked up 0.2 or whatever. Under 3% inflation is fine. That's like standard inflation over expectations.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

So it was more than expectations. This does seem to be the beginning of the inflation pipeline because of the tariffs. But what really got to me was that the market response also seems to on the inflation news yesterday, predict that the Fed is going to cut rates in September. There is no reason to think the Fed would cut rates in September if you think that inflation is real, except that the markets and this is, I've seen this again, a bunch of my financial friends are, you know, guys who work in finance are telling me the markets are basically telling Trump that he can fire Jerome Powell. And I, you know, you guys excited to have Kevin Hassett or Maria Bartiromo as the next Fed chair, because I think that's coming.

[Sarah Longwell]

So he's. Trump was pressed about this. There's like new reporting. It's in our slack. Maybe Tim is looking at it too. And I'll just tell you what it said, which is that Trump floated to a bunch of lawmakers, Republican lawmakers, about firing Powell, which led to a bunch of speculation that he was going to fire Powell. And then he was pressed on it just now in some briefing and he kind of walked it back but left the door open. I think you're right, jbl, that he's probably testing the market to see if firing Jerome Powell brings with it like a market freakout. And I also think you're, you're. Maybe I could see how Jerome Powell's unwillingness to cut rates is annoying Wall street, and they kind of want to maybe give Trump what he wants because they need the rate cuts because they're pretty freaked out about the tariffs and what that's going to do. So I could see him doing it. That being said, man, Jerome Powell is saving Trump from himself. You let Trump do whatever he wants.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Rate cuts.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, you don't. And so if Trump wants to get it and the Wall street wants it, that's a stove touching moment.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. I mean, I don't want to object to JBL's anonymous finance buddies. Maybe it's true. I don't. I have the stock. I've continued to be just a little perplexed by the strength of the stock market in the face of the various headwinds that we have coming. But, you know, that's not my area of expertise. Mark did take a dive, you know, earlier this week and, and, you know, hasn't fully recovered back yet.

[Sarah Longwell]

They think he's going to taco. They're pricing in a taco. Yeah, they think, they think the August 1 thing isn't going to. That he's going to do the same thing he's done before.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, maybe. And you know what Sarah was referencing now you reference. I was looking at my phone. Every once in a while we get commenters like, don't look at your phone. I'm like, you realize we're. We're on a live podcast. News is happening. You know, it's not like I'm checking my fantasy football scores, like, town. It's because I'm trying to get information to provide any. Who the. I was looking at it. And so Annapolina Luna was the one who broke this story, I guess, actually the Congress lady from Florida. And so there's this meeting where there's like a group of them that were unhappy about this crypto bill that's going through, which is just a fucking disaster in its own right. And some Republicans weren't happy about them because they were concerned about a federal digital currency. And, and so they're meeting, and during that meeting, Trump, like, asked them, do they, you know, which Trump does, like, just polls people like, do you think I should fire. Fire Jerome Powell? And all of the House Republicans are in there. Whoever else was in there with Anna Paulina Luna was like, yes. And so he's like, yeah, I think so. And this. So they're all like, it's going to happen. It's going to happen imminently. You know, I don't again, this is an area where I like, lean on the finance field. If you look at like Joe the stalwart Joe Wiesenthal, who I've had on, like a lot of them have been saying for a while, the finance podcast, I listen to, that this is like the worst case scenario. I don't know, you know, is it one of those things where it's like, we've also never been here, right? So it's like maybe it seems like it's worst case scenario, but it's another situation where we have these institutional guardrails. There's a Fed board of governors, all of the regional Fed people are basically like, fuck you. You can put Kevin Hassett in here, but we're not going to actually do anything. And then there's a showdown between one of Trump's funkies and people that actually know what they're doing. You know, we're kind of in a, you know, situation that we've seen across several other verticals. The administration, like, maybe that all happens, but it seems bad and like the whole thing is also premised on nothing. It's on a total misunderstanding that Trump's just like, oh, if I put in somebody else, you know, if I put in one of my life real estate buddies in charge of the Fed, they can just lower interest rates to 1%, everybody will be happy because everybody's mad that interest rates are high, but like, that's not how fucking long term interest rates work. You know, like the Fed chair could lower rates, but like, if there's other risk in the marketplace and you know, the 30 year, you know, people's 30 year mortgage, they're not able to refi immediately just because some flunky at the Fed says so.

[Sarah Longwell]

And can I push back, jbl, on your contention that people don't care about inflation? Because I think they care a great deal. And so, and I think the question is often not do they care? But like, how high of a salience is something like how motivating is a particular issue. And I'll grant you that in the stupidest timeline we live in, I think that inflation ekes out, Epstein, only modestly. And it affects, I think, probably a different piece of people who would be supporting Trump on this. But like on Inauguration Day, Trump was at, on how he handles the cost of living. He was at 41% disapprove and 35% approve. And today he's still, he's at 34.7% approved so he's got the same number of approvals, but the disapprove has jumped from 41% to 59.5%. And so he's locked in with his people. Like, you're right on. And you will remain right about this. Really hardcore. This is why I say you got to get Trump down to 35 or 32% because those are the people who never walk away. But the disapprover, disapproved number is going way up. And so I do think that matters. I always think it matters. I think it's the reason Joe Biden lost just slightly above and or behind his age. And there you go.

[Tim Miller]

I think my point is just on the inflation right now is it's not perceptible. What's perceptible to people is that it hasn't gotten better.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[Tim Miller]

And so that's not nothing. Right. But like it's not like there was a period in whatever it was 2023 where it was like, you went to the grocery store one week, Your bill is 180 bucks, you went the next week it was 215 bucks, you went the next week, it was 230 bucks. And people are like, what the fuck? You know, that's not what's happening right now. With a few, except for some, a few exceptions. No. You made the face like you, like that's wrong.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

JBL, it was 2022 and it wasn't as dramatic as you say, but that's okay.

[Tim Miller]

I mean, sure, I was using a little bit of hyperbole, but it was like very, it was very perceptible to regular people over the course of a short period of time. Yes, in a way.

[Sarah Longwell]

The main fight J had because I would hear from voters, you disagree with that.

[Tim Miller]

You think that the inflation right now is as perceptible as it was in 2022.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Okay, I don't. I. What I, what I think, I think and maybe I'm wrong is that this is one of those things that people will only care about when it's a Democratic president and won't actually care about whether Republican president because they think Republican economy good like that. I mean it's just like the baked in way that the voters view the two parties is like, well, the Republicans are the ones that are good on the economy. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is just my, I'm just putting it forward, this thesis.

[Sarah Longwell]

Let me, let me read you. I went and grabbed Nate Silver's, he's got a inflation tracker specifically for this, which I keep an eye on and for Trump's net approval on issues. So this is from today. On immigration he's minus 3.3. On the economy he's minus 11.8. On trade, he's minus 15.4. And on inflation, he's minus 24.8. And so that is a big. That's people being big mad about inflation.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Yeah. Well taken. I'm probably wrong then.

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I had on our map that we're going to talk about gerrymandering in Texas because yesterday during the gaggle, Donald Trump was asked whether or not he was calling for a complete redrawing of the Congressional map. And Trump said no, a simple redrawing. So we pick up five seats. I mean, is that, is that even worth talking about anymore, I think.

[Sarah Longwell]

So we should do it behind a paywall. We should make people come listen to.

[Tim Miller]

Our gerrymandering paywall for gerrymandering conver.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's the really hot stuff.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

I don't think anybody's going to be interested in that, but they may be interested in hearing us talk about how Greg Gutfeld wants to learn from the blacks.

[Tim Miller]

I want to just kind of say one thing on the gerrymandering thing because like a, it's just, I mean it's naked corruption and so like we should just say that. But in these, in these already heavily gerrymandered states, it's not as easy to gerrymander as you think. And Texas is really playing with fire. And I think, and this is going to be an interesting choice by Gavin Newsom, who's going to want to try to butch up and do some gerrymandering himself to try to balance it out. And by the way, I think he probably should do that in part of what I'm about to say because if it ends up being a bad midterm year for Republicans, which I think there's very good reason to believe, trying to re gerrymander Texas could actually backfire. Right? Because like there's only so much more you can squeeze out of some of these districts. And if you're. And so what you try to do, right, is you take a district that like you lost 53 to 46 or something and then you flip it and you make it like a 55, 45 the other way. So where do you take that other 20%? I'm doing bad math here, but we're just going to make this basic for you. Where do you take that from? We take it from some other district. So you go to a district where it was like 65 Republican and you make it 55, then it's like, ooh, that district's kind of in play now. And so it becomes very challenging and you might end up like accidentally unelecting Dan Crenshaw, God willing, you know, because you're trying to make some of the other districts better. It's just, it's just not quite like it's easy to gerrymander a non gerrymandered state, but like an already gerrymandered state. Like things get, you know, for the map nerds out there, it gets a little, it gets a little tougher than they think. So and I think that would be the same, that would be the same issue for, for Gavin if it was if you're going into A bad year. But since it's going to be a good year for Democrats, Gavin has a little more slack to work with, presuming that that actually all comes.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Isn't this what happened in New York State, Tim?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. They tried to. That's why they're like three Republican members from the New York, from like Staten island and like the kind of New York City area Lawler, the other Italian guy, the lady, the lesbian lady, the Greek lesbian lady. Anyway, so yeah, no, it can backfire.

[Sarah Longwell]

Gerrymandering used to be the thing kind of happened behind closed doors. It was like the smoke and mirrors.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Part of power that everybody else pretended they weren't.

[Sarah Longwell]

And now everybody's just like, this is like, I'm like running on this. Like, this is how I'm going to show you how hard we're going to stack things against you, which is a fundamental shift in our now, people have always done this. Like we shouldn't get too high on our supply about like how corrupted, like literally people have been doing on Illinois. Democrats been gerrymandering this forever. I will say though, that in the sort of democracy reformish community, there's been a lot of pushback and education around what gerrymandering is and does. And as a result, and this is where California, no, California has an independent commission because the Dem states have been more likely to put in laws that would cuff themselves on redistricting and not use it as a political hardball, power play, unilateral disarmament. And they, you know, I think that Republicans. Yeah, you just can't let that asymmetry persist. Whereas if Republicans are just going to use it as a political tool, you need to be able to do like I do, like what Newsom's doing. It reminds me of when Nebraska, right before the election was saying they were going to try to become a winner take all state so that they could take the 1% that you are. The one electoral vote that Don Bacon's district has, that's actually a bluer district. They want to make the state winner take all. And Maine was like, if you do that, we'll do the same thing because they have the same issue. And that caused everybody to stand down. And I think Newsom should saber rattle hard and try to just have people not doing this openly for political power.

[Tim Miller]

Nicole Malatokis. Sorry, I forgot you. Nick lalota, honorable, venerable members of the House Republican Caucus.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

Can I, I mean, maybe this is too boring to bother talking about, but is it, I mean, do we really, you know, an Eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind, Sarah. Like, maybe unilateral disarmament is what Democrats should. Right? If you believe in good government and you believe that we shouldn't be stacking decks, then, you know, maybe. I don't, I'm not. I don't know what I think, actually.

[Sarah Longwell]

Actually, I think this is a fair question.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

And I don't know how to get, like, anybody out of the cycle. And like, if Democrats disarmed, do they think Republicans would. No, I don't think they would. I don't know what the answer is is.

[Sarah Longwell]

So I gotta tell you, I was thinking about this this morning because I looked at the show map and I was thinking about gerrymandering. And this is so long ago now, I feel like I can say it, but I went a long time ago to this meeting on Political Hardball, and it was a bunch of people sort of theorizing around the idea that, that the Republicans, with the way that they treated Merrick Garland, whatever, like they were playing a kind of hardball with the rules that Democrats should think about doing themselves. And as you can imagine, your own Sarah Longwell in that meeting made an earnest pitch for not responding in kind to Republicans that actually you had to persuade people that this was about. And, and I, I still believe in persuasion a great deal. That being said, and there are a bunch of things I still don't believe in. I'll still be an institutionalist on. I actually, I have a question. Great episode that I did with Leah Litman, who's sitting in for George, and you know, she was talking about her support court packing. I was explaining why I was against it. And that's like the kind of hardball I'm not for. I do think Democrats should. And this is where I think what NOM is doing is right and why I think what Maine was doing was right is they shouldn't let Republicans think they won't fight back. I think they need to be in a position to say, like, you do it, we'll do it too. Like, we're going to go toe to toe for you. Because I think that Republicans have kind of decided that they can steamroll Democrats on everything. And I think that just there has to be some pushback.

[Tim Miller]

I might get some of the exact particulars on this wrong because I, Because I don't. I'm not as steeped in the Wisconsin redistricting as, you know, it's not really not my beat. But this is like this prime example of this. Like, Wisconsin is totally gerrymandered like both at the state legislative level and this was part of that state supreme court race. You know, it was one of the central questions of that. But even at the congressional level and the Democratic Tony Evers, you know, is dealing with a Republican legislature, right? So they did the thing where it's like they do a court drawn map or whatever and they have, you know, they have this court drawn map in Wisconsin and it ends up being like very favorable to the Republicans because Wisconsin had the legislature and the Supreme Court and now Wisconsin won the Supreme Court back for the, whatever quasi Democrats. It's nonpartisan, but the more left judges. And the question is, okay, should we re redo it to make it more fair now? And I forget if it was Evers or the Democratic judges that are like, yeah, no, we'll just leave it like it is for 10 years, you know, and then we'll, we'll reassess the next time. And it's just like, I don't, I just don't think that makes any sense. Like this is all very arcane stuff. You know, it's about drawing lines. This is not about like the Supreme Court. Like, it's like it is political by nature. If the Republicans wanted to meet and say, hey, we're going to create a national, you know, redistricting board that's going to make all of the decisions and there are going to be certain rules that are based on it. I'd be for that. Like, I think there are a lot of insane things out there. Like, it's crazy. When we were in Nashville, I realized there's no Democratic rep in Nashville. Isn't that insane? Because they've like drawn Nashville like a pizza. So you know, it's like, goes out into like four slices, that all the little slices go into Nashville. I think that's crazy. You know what I mean? Like, communities deserve to have representation. So I, I'm for some good government stuff, but like they gotta play. I, I gotta play hardball. The stakes are too high tonight in my view on this particular issue.

[Sarah Longwell]

Gavin Newsom really wants to get butcher should talk about splitting California into three separate states.

[Tim Miller]

And I am definitely for that for sure. Jbl, I'm starving. Can we do a separate video on Greg Gutfeld trying to take back the N word? Oh, we have a good dagger.

[JVL (Jonah Goldberg)]

What a tease, guys. Sounds good. We'll do that. Greg Gutfeld trying to reclaim the word Nazi for his people. I think that's fantastic. I can't wait to talk about it with you. Maybe we'll even get Sarah to do it. It'll be like a bonus next level. I don't know. Good show. Long show. Great to see you guys. Good luck, America.

[Tim Miller]

Bye.