**Podcast Summary: "It Might Happen Here (The Secret Podcast Preview)"
Podcast: The Next Level by The Bulwark
Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last
Release Date: October 25, 2024
Introduction
In the "It Might Happen Here (The Secret Podcast Preview)" episode of The Next Level, hosts Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last delve into the critical political landscape as the 2024 election looms less than two weeks away. The discussion traverses election polling nuances, the strategies of key political figures, cultural tensions, and the potential future of the Republican Party. This summary encapsulates their in-depth analysis, insightful debates, and the implications of current political maneuvers.
Election Polling and Margin of Error
Jonathan V. Last (JVL) opens the conversation by addressing the recent New York Times Sienna poll, which has Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a statistical tie. He emphasizes the significance of the margin of error, stating:
“A couple points is within the margin of error for the New York Times Sienna poll. That’s the—every discussion we’re having is about the margin of error.”
[00:47]
JVL critiques the public's misunderstanding of polls, likening them to high-powered binoculars designed for specific tasks, not for pinpoint precision:
“Polls are instruments designed to do a specific job. This is like being mad that a pair of high-powered, you know, military-grade binoculars aren’t giving you the results that a microscope would.”
[01:54]
Sarah Longwell echoes the sentiment, acknowledging the close poll numbers and highlighting the inherent uncertainties.
Kamala Harris's Campaign: Strengths and Weaknesses
The hosts transition to evaluating Kamala Harris's campaign performance. Sarah Longwell praises Harris for her centrist approach and outreach efforts but offers constructive criticism on aspects like media engagement and specific campaign choices:
“The extent to which she has tacked to the center, the extent to which she has actively reached out to the right-leaning independents and soft GOP voters.”
[03:15]
She further critiques Harris's presentation style during the CNN town hall, noting repetitive phrases that may detract from her message:
“She’s got like some ticks I don’t like where it’s like, let me be honest with you.”
[05:54]
JVL counters by asserting that no campaign is perfect, referencing Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign to illustrate that even successful campaigns have flaws:
“A perfect campaign does not exist.”
[06:22]
Donald Trump's Campaign Strategy: Cultural Over Economy
A significant portion of the discussion centers on Donald Trump's strategy, which shifts focus from traditional economic issues to cultural topics such as transgender rights and immigration. JVL criticizes this pivot, arguing that it detracts from substantive policy debates:
“He just out of his own mouth talked about using the military against the enemy within, meaning us people who oppose him politically, elected Democrats.”
[22:17]
Sarah Longwell agrees, highlighting how this strategy aims to paint Democrats as out of touch or "weird," thereby swaying voters through cultural anxieties rather than policy merits:
“Oh, yeah, Democrats are crazy. Like, they do the craziest stuff, the weirdest stuff. They’re not in the mainstream.”
[13:27]
The State of the Democratic and Republican Parties
Sarah Longwell discusses the broader challenges both parties face, noting that the Democrats struggle to present a coherent and appealing message post-Trump. She emphasizes the difficulty in defining clear policies on key issues like immigration, healthcare, and the economy:
“The Democrats are going to have to, because there's been so much political realignment, both of them are going through a bit of an identity crisis on policy.”
[11:14]
Conversely, the Republican Party is portrayed as solidifying around strong personalities like Tucker Carlson and JD Vance, potentially moving towards more extreme positions:
"I have always believed that the future of the Republican Party is some combination of J.D. Vance, Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens."
[17:44]
Tucker Carlson's Remarks and the Future of the Right
A notable segment critiques Tucker Carlson's rhetoric, particularly his metaphor likening America to a "hormonal teenage girl" needing discipline from a paternal figure. Sarah Longwell expresses discomfort with Carlson's approach:
“He does. He talks about the bad America is a her, which is bad.”
[15:29]
JVL extends the critique by noting the contradiction between the Republican emphasis on limited government and their support for authoritarian figures who embody punitive power:
“They just want the strong man to have the power to punish you. They do not want the government to have the power to punish you.”
[17:19]
Sarah Longwell connects this rhetoric to the broader trend within the Republican Party, suggesting a shift towards more dogmatic and less policy-focused strategies:
“It feels like the future of the right... he's picked JD Vance as his running mate and political successor.”
[17:50]
Comparisons to Authoritarian Leaders
The conversation intensifies as the hosts address the contentious comparisons between Donald Trump and historical authoritarian figures like Hitler. JVL underscores the gravity of such comparisons by highlighting Trump's admiration for dictators:
“Donald Trump has expressed admiration for dictators who use the threat of violence and commit acts of violence against their people.”
[22:17]
Sarah Longwell clarifies that the critique is not about labeling Trump as Hitler but about recognizing his authoritarian tendencies and alignment with dictatorial figures:
“We are saying that Trump... has expressed admiration for... authoritarian or a dictator.”
[23:23]
They discuss the implications of such rhetoric, emphasizing the dangers of normalizing authoritarian traits in American leadership.
Concerns about Authoritarianism and Future Implications
JVL introduces his newsletter's warning about the potential for Trump to adopt outright authoritarian measures, such as using the military against civilian populations. He stresses the lack of institutional guardrails to prevent such scenarios:
“If Trump does try to do actual authoritarian stuff... these people will not stop him. There ain’t no more guardrails.”
[24:34]
Sarah Longwell concurs, highlighting the perilous shift away from traditional governance structures towards personalistic authoritarianism:
“What it says to us is that if Trump tries to deploy the US Military against... these people will defend it.”
[25:50]
Conclusion
The episode concludes with a somber reflection on the current political trajectory, emphasizing the urgency for vigilance against authoritarian shifts within the Republican Party. The hosts reiterate the profound implications of the upcoming election, framing it as a critical juncture that will reveal the true nature of America's political and cultural landscape.
This episode of The Next Level offers a comprehensive and critical analysis of the 2024 election dynamics, the strategies of key political figures, and the broader ideological battles shaping the future of American politics. For listeners seeking an in-depth understanding of these issues, the hosts provide both insightful commentary and a cautionary perspective on the direction in which the nation is heading.