Podcast Summary: The Next Level – "Panic! At The Dow Lows" (April 23, 2025)

Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Jonathan V. Last

1. Introduction and Upcoming Events

The episode kicks off with the hosts, Jonathan V. Last (JVL), Sarah Longwell, and Tim Miller, discussing their upcoming live shows in Chicago and Nashville. Sarah emphasizes the importance of selling out the 800-person venue in Chicago, urging listeners to attend and support the podcast.

• Sarah Longwell [00:36]: "If you are a listener in Chicago or in the surrounding area, we're going to need you to come because this is an 800 person venue and we've been selling out shows left and right but we got to sell out 800 this time."

2. Market and Economic Overview

The conversation transitions to the state of the stock market, specifically the Dow Jones Industrial Average. JVL points out that the Dow is struggling to maintain resistance at 40,000, noting a slight rebound after the Treasury Secretary hinted at reducing China tariffs.

• JVL [01:31]: "Donald Trump's numbers are looking a little... when in October of last year when Kamala Harris was leading Donald Trump, dow was over 41,000. Today the resistance level is at about 40,000."

Tim expresses skepticism about the Treasury Secretary's assurances, suggesting they serve to calm private investors without addressing underlying issues affecting Main Street.

• Tim Miller [02:02]: "It really has concerns about Main Street. You know, like we hear a lot about how they have concerns about Main street, not Wall Street."

The hosts also discuss the weakening dollar and problematic bond markets, highlighting fears of a potential recession driven by Trump's economic policies.

3. Trump's Approval Ratings and Public Perception

The hosts delve into Donald Trump's approval ratings regarding his handling of the economy and immigration. Citing polls from Reuters Ipsos and YouGov, they highlight a significant decline in Trump's approval, particularly on immigration policies.

• Tim Miller [02:28]: "Two polls I have for you on the question of Trump's approval of his handling of the economy. Reuters Ipsos has him at 37% approval. Yikes."

Sarah emphasizes that beyond the individual poll numbers, the broader positive shift in public perception is crucial. She argues that Trump's mismanagement of the economy and immigration is now becoming evident to voters.

• Sarah Longwell [03:32]: "The good news here to me is not the individual poll numbers. The good news is you can make a difference with people's perceptions of Donald Trump and the job he is doing now. He's doing a lot of the work for you by doing a terrible job."

4. CEO Meetings and Tariffs Impact

The discussion shifts to recent meetings between big-box store CEOs and the administration concerning supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts. The CEOs express concerns about empty shelves and supply shortages, reflecting the broader economic strain caused by Trump's tariffs on China and other countries.

• Tim Miller [13:52]: "The tariffs are so great and so debilitating that he could dial back a lot and still have like a massive middle class tax, working tax increase on everybody from the remaining tariffs."

The hosts critique the administration's handling of tariffs, suggesting that while there might be short-term market stability, the long-term economic damage remains unaddressed.

5. Immigration Policies and the Jose Hermosillo Case

A significant portion of the episode focuses on the detention of Jose Hermosillo, a 19-year-old American citizen seemingly detained by ICE due to questions about his citizenship status. The hosts critique the government's handling of the case, highlighting systemic flaws and potential racial profiling.

• JVL [25:24]: "The government's account of this seems to be dishonest because the government says that he claimed he was from Mexico and that he was in America illegally and that is why they detained him."

Sarah and Tim discuss the broader implications of such immigration policies, linking them to inherent racism and systemic issues within ICE operations.

• Sarah Longwell [37:10]: "I think he is a racist. I think that a lot of Americans have a problem with the fact that the border is not secure."

6. Tesla's Earnings and Elon Musk's Strategy

Turning to corporate news, the hosts analyze Tesla's recent earnings report. They note a 71% decline in net income and a 20% drop in vehicle sales, attributing these figures to production challenges and tariff-related issues. Elon Musk's focus on future projects like self-driving taxis and humanoid robots is critiqued as diverting attention from the company's immediate financial struggles.

• JVL [41:24]: "Tesla did their quarterly earnings call yesterday... Net income was down a touch, 71%. The actual sales of vehicles down 20%."

The hosts express skepticism about Musk's ambitious plans, questioning the feasibility and impact on Tesla's brand reputation.

• Tim Miller [50:51]: "The robots are the funniest thing. Do you guys remember when he launched the robot?"

7. Political Outreach and Media Strategy

The episode concludes with a discussion on political outreach strategies, particularly focusing on Mayor Pete's appearance on manosphere podcasts. The hosts debate the efficacy of engaging with such platforms to reach broader or opposing audiences, balancing the potential benefits against the risks of mainstreaming extremist views.

• JVL [54:19]: "I think none of this stuff with Elon happens without those protests. Like it Took the protests, making like deciding we're going to make this guy and his brand toxic. And it worked."

Sarah underscores the importance of maintaining authenticity and resisting the pressure to conform to extremist narratives, advocating for clear political stances.

• Sarah Longwell [64:58]: "If you don't define your own positions, they will define them for you."

8. Conclusion and Promotions

Wrapping up, the hosts reiterate their upcoming shows in Chicago and Nashville, tease potential special guests, and provide links for listeners to purchase tickets. They also briefly mention and humorously dismiss possible appearances by high-profile celebrities like Taylor Swift.

• JVL [71:17]: "Possible special guest, Taylor Swift. She hasn't said no."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Sarah Longwell [03:32]: "The good news here to me is not the individual poll numbers. The good news is you can make a difference with people's perceptions of Donald Trump and the job he is doing now. He's doing a lot of the work for you by doing a terrible job."

• Tim Miller [02:28]: "Two polls I have for you on the question of Trump's approval of his handling of the economy. Reuters Ipsos has him at 37% approval. Yikes."

• JVL [25:24]: "The government's account of this seems to be dishonest because the government says that he claimed he was from Mexico and that he was in America illegally and that is why they detained him."

• Sarah Longwell [37:10]: "I think he is a racist. I think that a lot of Americans have a problem with the fact that the border is not secure."

• JVL [41:24]: "Tesla did their quarterly earnings call yesterday... Net income was down a touch, 71%. The actual sales of vehicles down 20%."

Conclusion

In "Panic! At The Dow Lows," The Bulwark's "The Next Level" hosts provide a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape, Trump's declining approval ratings, contentious immigration policies, and corporate challenges faced by Tesla under Elon Musk's leadership. Through insightful discussions and critical perspectives, the episode underscores the intertwined nature of politics, economics, and public perception in shaping the nation's trajectory.