Podcast Summary: The Agony of St. Larry (The Secret Podcast Preview)
The Next Level Podcast by The Bulwark
Release Date: October 11, 2024

Hosts: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last

Introduction

In the episode titled "The Agony of St. Larry (The Secret Podcast Preview)," host Jonathan V. Last (JVL) engages in a deep and insightful discussion with co-host Sarah Longwell. The conversation delves into the intricacies of the current political landscape, focusing on Trump's vote share, polling accuracy, Kamala Harris's campaign strategies, regional voter dynamics, and the gendered shifts within the Republican voter base. Additionally, the hosts touch upon Larry Hogan's recent debate performance against Angela Brooks.

Trump's Vote Share and Swing State Polling

Key Discussion Points:

• Swing States Focus: JVL opens the discussion by highlighting a perceived "vibe shift" based on recent polling in crucial swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, suggesting favorable outcomes for Donald Trump (00:00-01:03).

• Poll Interpretation: The conversation examines whether the positive polling for Trump signifies increased support or if it's reflective of underlying shifts within the electorate.

Notable Quotes:

• JVL: "We've got two cycles of data, both national and statewide on Trump, and his numbers were remarkably similar, despite the fact that those two elections could hardly have been more dissimilar." (05:38)

• Sarah Longwell: "If anybody reads Playbook, I did the Deep Dive podcast yesterday, and people are taking its leading playbook today." (01:04)

Poll Accuracy and Voter Sentiment

Key Discussion Points:

• Undercounting Trump: JVL presents an analysis suggesting that polls have historically undercounted Trump's vote share by approximately 2%, raising questions about the current polling methodology and its ability to capture true voter sentiment (05:38).

• Voter Inputs: Sarah challenges the notion that the "vibe shift" is predominantly about Trump, arguing that it's more about the electorate's feelings based on inputs from Washington, polls, and grassroots operatives (01:06-01:48).

Notable Quotes:

• JVL: "Either polls have accurately figured out how to capture his real level of support... or he's going to blow the doors off and wind up at like 49% in the national vote." (05:53)

• Sarah Longwell: "It's about how we're feeling based on our inputs. Right. Whatever inputs we get here in Washington." (01:06)

Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy

Key Discussion Points:

• Charting Her Own Path: Sarah emphasizes the importance of Kamala Harris distancing herself from Joe Biden to establish her own identity and policy positions, countering the narrative that she is merely a continuation of Biden (01:37-05:38).

• Media Blitz: The hosts discuss Harris's media strategies, noting her shift towards non-traditional media platforms like "Call Her Daddy" and "Howard Stern," aiming to reach a broader audience without immediate shifts in polling (04:00-05:38).

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell: "Kamala Harris just doesn't seem like Joe Biden. And I think most voters are giving her the opportunity to chart her own path." (02:25)

• JVL: "I think when push comes to shove, we see more enthusiasm for her." (18:04)

Regional Dynamics: Focus on Nevada

Key Discussion Points:

• Housing and Influx from California: Sarah highlights Nevada's unique challenges, such as rising housing prices driven by an influx of Californians, leading to economic tensions as new residents seek lower housing costs while working in limited sectors like retail and hospitality (11:00-12:28).

• COVID Aftermath: The lingering effects of the pandemic in Nevada are discussed, with Sarah noting that residents are still dealing with its repercussions, influencing their voting behavior (11:00-12:28).

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell: "People are talking about paying California prices but living on Nevada jobs." (11:00)

• JVL: "There's a lot of regional perspectives. It's why I continue to think that the sort of white, older voters of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Nebraska, too, are sort of bizarrely still her best bet." (12:28)

Shifts in Voter Coalitions: Gender Dynamics

Key Discussion Points:

• Republican Women Defecting: The hosts explore the significant trend of Republican women voters distancing themselves from Trump, contrasting it with the steadfast support from Republican men. This gendered shift is attributed to Trump's antagonistic stance towards women and the moral clarity exhibited by women like Liz Cheney and Alyssa Farah Griffin (24:00-31:27).

• Proposed Analysis: JVL suggests that Sarah Longwell is uniquely positioned to author a comprehensive piece on the gendered breakdown of Republican voter defections, highlighting the nuanced reasons behind women's departure from Trump's base (24:21-31:37).

Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell: "Donald Trump repels women by all. Like, like he doesn't care." (30:12)

• JVL: "Republican women voters are a big part of who's leaving Trump." (29:33)

Larry Hogan's Debate Performance

Key Discussion Points:

• Debate Breakdown: The episode concludes with a brief discussion on Larry Hogan's performance in his recent Senate debate against Angela Brooks. JVL describes Hogan as having been "absolutely destroyed at, like, a deep spiritual level" during the debate, underscoring the challenges faced by moderate Republicans in the current polarized environment (33:57-34:00).

Notable Quotes:

• JVL: "Larry Hogan, who got absolutely destroyed at, like, a deep spiritual level at the Senate debate in Maryland by Angela Brooks." (00:00, reintroduced later at 33:57)

Conclusion

In "The Agony of St. Larry (The Secret Podcast Preview)," Sarah Longwell and JVL provide a comprehensive analysis of the evolving political dynamics as the 2024 election approaches. From polling intricacies and regional economic pressures to the significant role of gender in voter defections, the episode offers listeners a nuanced understanding of the factors shaping the electoral landscape. The discussion on Larry Hogan's debate performance further exemplifies the struggles of traditional moderates in a shifting partisan climate.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• JVL: "We've got two cycles of data, both national and statewide on Trump, and his numbers were remarkably similar, despite the fact that those two elections could hardly have been more dissimilar." (05:38)

• Sarah Longwell: "Kamala Harris just doesn't seem like Joe Biden. And I think most voters are giving her the opportunity to chart her own path." (02:25)

• JVL: "Republican women voters are a big part of who's leaving Trump." (29:33)

• Sarah Longwell: "Donald Trump repels women by all. Like, like he doesn't care." (30:12)

• JVL: "Larry Hogan, who got absolutely destroyed at, like, a deep spiritual level at the Senate debate in Maryland by Angela Brooks." (00:00, 33:57)

For more in-depth discussions and the complete episode, visit The Bulwark.