The Next Level Podcast Summary: "This Is It"
Release Date: October 30, 2024
Hosted by Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last of The Bulwark
1. Introduction and Episode Overview
In the final pre-election episode of "The Next Level," host Jonathan V. Last (JVL) along with Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller engage in their characteristic blend of political analysis and candid banter. The episode navigates through the culminating moments of the election cycle, focusing on pivotal campaign events, key speeches, and the broader political landscape shaping up as Election Day looms.
2. The Tale of Two Rallies
Trump’s Madison Square Rally vs. Harris’s Ellipse Speech
The hosts begin by dissecting the contrasting performances of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in their recent campaign events.
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Donald Trump's Rally:
- Location: Madison Square, adjacent to Madison Square Garden.
- Attendance: Approximately 20,000 primarily middle-aged, middle-class white males.
- Tone: The rally was described as aggressive and exclusionary. Jonathan V. Last remarked, “[Trump] was basically the national version of Kerry Lakes telling the McCain voters to go fuck themselves” (00:31).
- Impact: The event was perceived as lacking outreach, relying instead on a fervent but narrow base.
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Kamala Harris’s Ellipse Speech:
- Location: The Ellipse outside the White House.
- Attendance: A substantial crowd of around 75,000, significantly larger than her previous speeches.
- Tone: Poised and unifying, with an emphasis on policy and vision.
- Notable Moment: Sarah highlighted the peaceful dispersal of the crowd post-speech and the absence of disturbances, stating, “Is it really an ellipse speech if all the cops are okay and treated nicely?” (02:57).
- LGBTQ Representation: Tim observed a strong LGBTQ presence, especially during mentions of Stonewall, adding, “A lot of gays out there. A lot of the loudest people in that crowd were either gay or gay or allies” (04:04).
3. Analyzing Kamala Harris’s Speech
Strengths and Strategy
The hosts delve into the effectiveness of Harris's closing argument.
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Visual and Strategic Execution:
- Jonathan praised the visual impact and strategic messaging, noting, “She just looked and sounded like a president” (11:17).
- Tim echoed this sentiment, commenting on the strategic use to reclaim media attention from Trump, despite some pre-scripted elements diminishing the speech’s emotional resonance.
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Policy Highlights:
- Emphasized commitments to child tax credit, housing development, and insulin price caps.
- Sarah admired Harris’s determination to stay focused despite potential disruptions, stating, “something about it made me be like, yeah, you’re not getting distracted” (06:19).
Criticisms and Concerns
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Message Testing Industrial Complex:
- Tim expressed apprehension that policy-driven speeches might lose the emotional “magic” seen in previous administrations, potentially making Harris’s message less stirring (08:46).
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Joe Biden’s Interference:
- The discussion shifted to Biden’s overshadowing presence, with Sarah expressing frustration: “Stop it. What are you thinking?” (12:19).
4. The Role of Republican Figures
J.D. Vance and Steve Bannon
The conversation transitions to influential Republican figures and their impact on the political climate.
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J.D. Vance:
- Critiqued as a "flip-flopper," Sarah lambasted his inconsistent stances, particularly regarding offensive remarks, dubbing him “the worst flopper of all floppers” (17:42).
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Steve Bannon:
- Tim provided an in-depth analysis of Bannon’s recent activities, portraying him as a destabilizing force:
5. Media and Endorsements: The Washington Post Decision
The hosts address Jeff Bezos’ decision for The Washington Post not to endorse a presidential candidate, examining its implications.
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Subscriber Impact:
- Jonathan pointed out the catastrophic nature of a 10% subscriber loss within 36 hours, emphasizing the financial strain on journalistic institutions (38:48).
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Trust and Capitulation:
- Sarah criticized Bezos’ rationale, stating, “Don’t lie to me, don’t act like I’m an idiot. We know exactly what you’re doing” (40:55).
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Broader Implications:
- Discussion on how elite capitulation, especially from billionaires like Bezos, erodes democratic accountability and undermines rule of law (36:32).
6. The Judiciary and Accountability for Trump
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the pursuit of accountability against Donald Trump.
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Legal Proceedings:
- Jonathan reflects on the importance of maximum accountability, citing the Alvin Bragg case as crucial despite perceptions of its strength (51:19).
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Potential Effects of Convictions:
- Debated whether convictions would influence Trump’s voter base, with Sarah noting minimal impact on voting behaviors but agreeing on the importance of legal accountability (52:09).
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Role of Kamala Harris:
- The necessity for Harris to continue maximum accountability measures is emphasized to prevent elite capitulation (45:46).
7. Polling and Final Election Forecasts
As the episode nears its conclusion, the hosts analyze the latest polling data and discuss final election outcomes.
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Current Polls:
- Tim shared recent CNN poll numbers indicating Harris leads Trump in key battleground states:
- Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43% (53:56)
- Wisconsin: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 48%
- Tim shared recent CNN poll numbers indicating Harris leads Trump in key battleground states:
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State-Specific Insights:
- North Carolina and Nevada: Recognized as competitive with potential for Harris to secure victories.
- Georgia: Optimistic about efficient vote counting, Tim believes a close race could favor Harris if she maintains suburban support.
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Independent Voters:
- Sarah posits that independents are likely to break in favor of Harris, citing her stronger recent performances and Trump's diluted messaging (55:04).
8. Closing Remarks and Future Plans
In their final moments, the hosts reflect on the episode’s discussions and future initiatives.
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Nighttime Check-Ins:
- Plans to continue providing updates and support through potential nighttime check-ins were briefly mentioned, highlighting their commitment to keeping listeners informed during pivotal election nights.
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Final Thoughts:
- Jonathan V. Last encapsulates the intensity and uncertainty of the election night ahead, wishing listeners good luck as America approaches a decisive moment (59:02).
Notable Quotes
- Jonathan V. Last: “She just looked and sounded like a president.” (11:17)
- Sarah Longwell: “What a punishment.” (25:33)
- Tim Miller: “These conservatives are the worst...you cannot be overjoyed and offended simultaneously.” (20:36)
- Sarah Longwell: “The entire system is failing us because of Trump's transactionalism.” (46:18)
Conclusion
"This Is It" serves as a comprehensive wrap-up of the 2024 election cycle, offering in-depth analysis of campaign strategies, key political figures, media influence, and the broader implications for American democracy. The Bulwark’s hosts provide a critical lens on the unfolding political drama, balancing optimism for Harris’s campaign with concerns over Republican strategies and media capitulation. As Election Day approaches, their insights aim to equip listeners with a nuanced understanding of the high-stakes battle shaping the nation’s future.
Timestamp Reference:
Timestamps are indicative and correspond to the moments in the transcript where specific topics or quotes are discussed.