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Tim Miller
With the five dollar meal deal at McDonald's, you pick a McDouble, or a McChicken.
Sarah Longwell
Then get a small fry, a small.
Tim Miller
Drink and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not.
JVL
A lot of money.
E
Price and participation may vary for a limited time only.
Unknown
Oh, hear that?
Sarah Longwell
Ah.
JVL
Okay, thank you.
Unknown
Etsy knows these aren't the sounds of holiday gifting.
Sarah Longwell
Hmm.
Unknown
Well, not the ones you're hoping for. You want squeals of delight? Happy Te.
JVL
How did you. How did you know?
Unknown
And spontaneously written songs of joy.
JVL
I so happy.
Unknown
Oh yeah. Oh, yeah.
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JVL
Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Well, we're a week on into this thing and it's great.
Sarah Longwell
Has it been a week?
JVL
I found myself last night at three in the morning laying there just thinking, Pete Hegseth, we'll get to that in a minute. First I would like to.
Sarah Longwell
But we'll get to it in a minute.
JVL
Okay, we'll get there. We'll get there. I would like to say that I have been on this spot for a very long time saying that Donald Trump will attempt to run for a third term. And what I've said is that he will use the period between now and like 2027 to constantly tease the idea in a will he won't he sort of way. And that once we get to 2027, then he'll see if he can put his foot on the gas.
Sarah Longwell
Kind of like a Ross and Rachel type thing, you know?
JVL
Yeah, sort of. Yeah. Yeah. And they're just like, there are a bunch of structural reasons why he would do this today. I mean, again, we are only a week into this thing. He appears before the house GOP conference and says, I'm going to quote, I suspect I won't be running again unless you say, he's so good. We got to figure something else out. It's the real Trumpian. That's a real thing that just happened today.
Sarah Longwell
Who's reporting that? Is that punch bowl?
JVL
It's all over the Internet.
Sarah Longwell
Great. Sorry, I was taping another podcast. Can you read it again.
JVL
I suspect I won't be running again unless you say, he's so good, we got to figure something else out. It's like the platonic ideal, right? There's enough deniability. It's like, see, he's saying he won't run again. He's saying he respects the constitution and the 22nd amendment. But is he.
Unknown
Do we have a constitutional scholar? Because I took a look at the language in the old. The old Constitution, and It's old number 22.
Sarah Longwell
Old number 22.
Unknown
Second Amendment's quite clear.
JVL
It's not really. So I've done a little bit of digging on this. It is possible that he could run. I mean, just taking everything exactly as it is now without assuming any Supreme Court stuff, that he can basically do what like Putin did with Medvedev, which.
Unknown
Is he could run like, run as vice president.
JVL
Run as the vice president with everybody understanding. You can even make it explicit that the guy at the top of the ticket, let's just pretend for the moment it'll be Don Jr because he wouldn't trust JD Vance with his life like this would then on January 21, step aside and resign the office. At which point Trump would be going. So that. That seems to be the VP gambit. Airtight. The VP gambit. But that's not what worries me. What worries me is that, like with the 14th Amendment gambit, if the Supreme Court was faced with the fact of this guy doing it and with a bunch of state parties putting him on a primary ballot and polls showing that within the Republican party, you know, 65 or 79% of the people are going to vote for him, and Supreme Court is being asked to, like, tell these people they can't have what they want. There isn't anything we have seen from this court.
Sarah Longwell
So I have two thoughts about. Two thoughts about this I want to share. Number one, you do this, I think the worry is fair, which I'll get to. You do the 14th Amendment comparison, which isn't really a fair. In apt comparison. I mean, like, the 14th amendment was. Was a lot, a lot murkier than the 22nd. It was. I know. I know that for the stick, you have to kind of act like it was similar. And I was open, by the way, to the 14th Amendment being enforced in a way that would have prevented him from running. I thought. I think that there was an interesting constitutional question there. The 22nd is a lot more cut and dry. So, like, that comparison isn't quite as apt as the shtick requires.
JVL
It to be to social immunity. Was that a cut and dry or was that something they just invented out of thin air?
Sarah Longwell
That was something they invented out of thin air, which is pretty.
JVL
So we've seen that they can do that.
Sarah Longwell
There are things to be concerned about. I'm not saying that they're not. I just, I just wanted to. On the specific point of the 14 and 22 comparison, I just wanted to get on the record that I don't think that's as apt as a comparison. I will say this, though. I received a text yesterday from somebody about, like, Mona, I guess, wrote something that was like, there are no permanent losses, no permanent defeats for the bulwark yesterday. And somebody was like, well, I thought that the bulwark was like, democracy is over. And so I just, like, for the purposes of this conversation, just kind of setting the table, I feel like I've been very clear, but sometimes I don't. I'm not. I'm not listened to, as you know, I'm not that people don't translate my words as clearly as I had helped. I felt like from the beginning that, like, probably it was more likely that he would just leave if you want. Again, it was more likely than not. I've kind of vacillated between, like, there being a 2% chance that he tries to stay in power or like a 40%. It's pretty wide range, kind of depending on my mood that day and what Trump did most recently. And so the point that I was always trying to make and that many of us, I don't speak for everybody at the Bulwark, but that many of us were making is, like, that risk, whether you assess it to be 2% or 40% is too great. We've never had that risk really, since the Civil War. Yeah, it's never been above zero since. Well, I guess you could say since fdr. I guess it's never been above zero since fdr. And, and, and that's. That's bad and that's disqualifying in its own right. And now that we're living it, you know, like, there's this question of he's like, making these jokes and, like, the jokes are bad. And I don't, and I don't think that it does us any good for me to, like, get in my crystal ball and, like, decide what I think. Who the fuck knows what the world looks like in spring of 2028, but I do think that it is responsible and right to live in a world where he might try this. There should be A legal vertical of people that are focused on that side of things. And there will have to be a public conversation that is sober that hopefully convinces people that they should not give any aid and comfort to this. I'm not that hopeful on that latter point. But, like, I think that that stuff is required because, like, he's joking. He's not joking. Like, it's great. It's. It's an insane thing to joke about.
Unknown
Wait, that's why. And I want to pick up on this point that Tim's making about democracy over versus democracy. Fine. And just how much space exists between those two things. So our concern about Trump, and I'm glad you're bringing this up because I do see some people saying sort of like, well, I thought that of course we'll never have another election again. And I don't think any of us have ever even begun to argue that. And again, this idea of, like, democracy over, it takes a long time to end and would especially for the world's oldest democracy. Right. We do have a lot of things that even like places like Orban's, Hungary and other places where we've seen sort of democratic slide, you know, take place. And so our job, or even what we have been warning against, is the extent to which Trump stresses the democratic institutions in ways that other candidates and people who have been president have not. Now, lots of people, though lots of presidents have tested the limits of their power and have done things that I think conservatives have balked at over the years. I think, you know, President Obama doing all of his czars and sort of doing an end run around, around the advice and consent role of the Senate. And every time that there's been sort of a stretching of the guardrails or a stretching of what it means, it can then be utilized by the next people who come along to say, okay, well, we've busted this norm. We've busted that norm. We've changed this rule to the point where it gets harder and harder to sort of rein in people who wanna do really bad things, especially if they are people who have really bad intentions. I think our argument about Trump was always, this is a guy with really bad intention intentions, extra constitutional intentions, and he will stress our institutions in ways that our country is not quite prepared for and that we don't have, like, lots of laws and stuff that make it super clear. But this is one of those places where I think 22nd amendment, like, that's what the Insurrection act and that types of, like, that was so murky and it was like A test. And it wasn't so clear cut. 22nd amendment, much more clear cut. But that doesn't mean he's not going to stress our institutions at every level. But the last thing I'll just say on the actual Trump running again, we know what an 82 year old man looks like because Joe Biden is one. And we know that Joe Biden at 78 much better than Joe Biden at 82. I do think Donald Trump at 82 struggles to organize. Yeah. Organize the idea that he ought to be. And actually let me just make one more point. I'm talking to a lot of democracy people right now and I wanted to make this point to them and I haven't had the chance to do it yet, which is the extent to which it is very difficult to convince the American people about Democratic threats when eggs are too expensive and milk is too expensive. Because democracy is a luxury item in some ways. Right? You're like, well now you've got to think about institutions. And people don't want to think about institutions when they're stressed about like paying their bills like and we don't have to fight about that. I just want to say like it was at a, that was a suboptimal time to try to persuade people around issues of democracy as Trump is testing our democracy is a good time to persuade people and educate people about what he is doing.
Sarah Longwell
Especially good news on this front. I've got especially good news on this front, Sarah. It's a good news. Next level. We haven't had one of those in a while. Just saw a stat today and Republicans increasingly think the economy is doing great. You saw the total inversion now like a hockey stick style growth in the economy over the last week. It's just amazing the magic that happens under Joe Biden's leadership in a lame duck. And so I don't think people will be stressed about it. So they won't have these luxury. Hold on one second, hold on one.
Unknown
Second on this though. So I think there was always. JVO was always right about Boat Parade people. There was always. Because we're also seeing the opposite be true where Democrats now think that there was always a political. The Democrats in the same survey thought that they're starting to view the economy more negatively which I think justifies this idea that there is a political partisan valence to how one views the economy, whether your side is in control or not. That being said, I think these extra margins for Trump in terms of the people who did vote on the economy were people who are Not Republicans per se. They are just people who were mad about the economy and prices.
Sarah Longwell
That chart is turning me into the joker, though. I've totally turned it. I'm just like. I'm like this. Fuck everything. This is crazy. It's like they've inverted now, Sarah. Joe Biden's still the president. Couldn't you people at least wait till January to talk about how economy's magically gotten better or worse? Joe Biden's still the president.
JVL
I got some bad news for you, Sarah. If democracy is a luxury good that you can only think about in good times, what is the last good times presidential election we've had? I think it was 1984.
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
JVL
Every election since 1986, the dominant. The dominant theme was like, I feel your pain. We gotta keep going. Things are still hard. This is pretty young. In 96, every presidential election is, boy, things are really tough out there, and I got to come in and fight for the middle class. Every election since 1984 has been, you.
Unknown
Know, actually, you raise, you raise a good point here, which is I don't want to be glib about saying because democracy is not a luxury item, like it is the foundation upon which all.
JVL
No, I know what you mean. Totally understood.
Unknown
I know. I'm just, I'm not trying to be dismissive of. But I also think I have argued, and we have argued so much about the fact that, like, and it's funny, there's been a bunch of charts now showing how much democracy has actually risen in the eyes of people in terms of an issue that they are voting on. The problem is, is lots of Republicans are also voting on the issue of democracy because they think that Joe Biden is a threat to democracy. And so I just, I think that we should make sure that we are very clear when we use the word democracy, that everybody ain't talking about the same thing and that people do not see the threats as the same thing.
JVL
Okay, so let's get to the real news. Pete Hegseth, who is that?
Unknown
The real news?
JVL
Who is a. More a weekend morning cable news show host with 10 years of experience and a number of New York Times bestsellers to his name. I read the first four chapters written. A word of any of those.
Sarah Longwell
I think he has. I'm sorry. I've read the first four chapters of his most recent and I think that strong chance he took the pen, at least in some parts. It does not read like it was an erudite Manhattan Institute author. It reads like a Fox and Friends weekend co hosts book when we are.
JVL
Off air, I will share some intelligence I have from inside the right wing publishing industrial complex.
Sarah Longwell
Oh, got it. So you're indicating that it's all written by one guy. It's a good ghost ride. That's a good ghost ride. A ghostwriter that was able to channel the voice of a weekend fox.
JVL
And, friend, it's worse than that. But I can't actually. I can't burn my source, so I'm gonna keep that to myself. I'm sorry, friends, but he seems to have no experience running any sort of organization at all.
Sarah Longwell
He ran an AstroTurf pack. He ran an AstroTurf pack, but I think had a couple staffers, including his brother. His brother, who he hired. And there was a complaint about that. And his response is, basically, there's no laws against hiring your brother for a nonprofit. So I think he was in charge of, I think three or four staffers at an AstroTurf profit.
JVL
And he's been nominated to be the Secretary of Defense. I think this is like nominating Alison Janney to be Secretary of the treasury because she was on the West Wing.
Unknown
Why are you being mean about Allison Janney? She went to Kenya.
JVL
No, I'm not being.
Unknown
FYI, she's the best.
JVL
She is the best.
Unknown
She can run Treasury. She would be better than all these.
JVL
I just would like to.
Sarah Longwell
I want to give my broader thoughts, but first, I want to tell a story. I want Sarah to go first, but I just wanted to tell a story that, like, just because people have been worried about my feelings, because I was crying on yesterday's daily podcast, and I gotta tell you, you did.
JVL
You cried.
Sarah Longwell
Love it. Cried. And I got a little vert clempt. Love it. Love it.
JVL
I haven't listened to it.
Sarah Longwell
Love it cried. Like, love it, love it. Kayfabe cried or real love it. Like dad. Like a grown man cried. Yeah. Wow. Listen to the Daily Buggy.
Unknown
Tim Waltz.
JVL
Like, I love my son crying.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Tim Walz. I love my son crying. You never know what's going to happen on the Daily Bulwark podcast. You should be tuning every day. I'm having to tape it every day. You guys should be listening to. There's nothing I can do more than.
Unknown
Listen to two grown men cry.
Sarah Longwell
It's nice. You know, we're gays. We're in touch with our feelings. Anywho, some people have been concerned.
JVL
Are you gay?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, obviously. Okay. Anyway, so, you know, people are worried about me. And I gotta tell you, when I saw the Caputo tweet come Across. I laughed. Like, I haven't laughed in ages. I mean, I couldn't control myself. I had uncontrollable, private laughter and the car. And I'm like, I know I shouldn't be laughing at this. It's serious. And they're like, people's lives are gonna be on the line. But I couldn't help myself, and I cried again. But it was laughing, crying. And then I showed up to dinner, and, like, you can't reveal your source. I don't want to embarrass the people I was at dinner with, but I went to dinner with a couple serious people. Serious, you know, not podcast host. Serious. Serious people I had a serious dinner with, and they hadn't. They hadn't been looking at their phone. And so I was able to break the news to them that Pete was gonna be running the entire United States military. And, like, their faces of shock, followed by not believing me. Both of them got their phones out and started Googling at the same time. And then they showed it to me, and I was like, yeah, you don't need to show it to me. I just told you. It was like, that level of astonishment, like, I need to see the New York Times front page with his picture on it before I believe this. That was so enjoyable for me that I wanted to start going around the restaurant to tell other people just so I could relive the. But luckily, I did get to remove it one more time because Tyler was. Had fallen asleep on the couch. So I got to wake him up with the news, which was really enjoyable as well. So, anyway, I have broader, serious thoughts about this, but I want Sarah to go first. I just wanted to share with people that it kind of. It was really. It was good for me internally, at least in the short term.
Unknown
Yeah. So I will say that I have been thinking about what is the threat level of these choices, Right? And, like, what. What do we want? Like, what's the best case scenario for the country? And, like, I think on some level, it's not that I'm happy about Marco Rubio per se. It's that I'm happy it's not Rick Grinnell. Right. It's like, I'm happy that because there are dangerous people, there are craven people, and then they're stupid people. And I would say I would take craven, but, like, qualified over actively dangerous. Okay. Which I think flies in the face a little bit. JBL of you being like, no, no. I want them to get the full Trump experience, which means I want these dangerous people. But I actually think that Pete Hegseth might be how we split the difference jvl because he's just stupid. Now, stupid in serious roles can be very dangerous. But my guess is that that guy, based on what I know about him, is just a head of hair who has an affair every single time he gets married and has many, many children. Like, he's not a serious. An unserious person.
JVL
He's a Princeton and Harvard guy. He's an elite.
Unknown
Is he.
JVL
Dare I say, an Ivy League elite. Isn't he both, though? Isn't he both stupid and craven?
Unknown
Okay, but I guess. I guess I'm. I guess I'm. I'm working through the fact that at least with stupid and craven is like. Is like a better version than like, actively dangerous. Right? Like, we're not getting people who are so far who are like, I'm gonna pull us out of NATO, abandoned Ukraine. And like, when he puts.
JVL
Wants to do with vaccinations in the military.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Unknown
Like, well, okay, but so if he puts rfk, right? RFK at Health and Human Services, say he's running that. That's dangerous. Ben Carson running hhs. It's just sort of stupid and craven, right? It's a little. And so I'm just, I'm. I'm asking. But I would say my gut reaction to that is not, not like pleasantly surprised at all. Just. I'm just. This feels like, okay, you're both getting the Trump experience, but it doesn't feel as like the harm is. Is so bad that I really kick in with the, like, no, we have to do the things that prevent so much of this harm, you know?
JVL
So let me. Let me tell you the one possible downside of that for this is that it seems to me that Hegseth will have two briefs if confirmed or recess appointed. The first brief will be to getting all of the woke out of the military get. I mean, so far as I can tell, the military is one gigantic gay bar. And it's just like going to pride to a pride parade. It's nothing but trans people. And I don't know if drag queens are still a thing or what. Pups, whatever pups are, nobody will tell me, what are those things?
Sarah Longwell
Guys, we'll talk to you about pups on the other side. Well, now you have a second brief. What is the second brief? And then.
JVL
But the second brief is going to be culling the general officer ranks in getting rid of the cucks and woke generals. Translation, the generals who take the constitution seriously. And that's A big danger. I think that's a good teaser that points to, you know, that bad stuff that we started out talking about. All right, so we'll get to that.
Sarah Longwell
On the other side.
JVL
Tim, would you like to give us a little message?
Sarah Longwell
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JVL
All right, Tim.
Sarah Longwell
All right, Go ahead.
JVL
Do you want to talk about the generals, or do we. Sarah, which one do you want to talk about?
Sarah Longwell
You had two. So you had two briefs there. The clown college brief and then the Insurrection 2.0 brief. So let's start with the clown college for a little bit, because, as I mentioned, I was reading the book the War on Warriors earlier this morning, and a couple of things I noticed. The word transgender appears in that book, I believe, 28, 29 times. Very serious. Like these. This book, which is pitched kind of as like, Pete Hegseth wrote a book about how to reorient the Department of Defense and the military. It's like one of the reasons why you would just be picking him, right? It's like a blueprint. The whole book is about transgender people. Like, I don't know how many transgender people there are in the military, but if you listen to Pete Hegseth, I mean, you would think that everybody had the pronouns they themselves. And we're getting mastectomies, double mastectomies. Here's a quote I want to pull up here. There are so many quotes like this. He talks about how now for promotions, firsts is the most important factor in filling new commanders, and the military will not stop until trans, lesbian, black females run everything. I find that interesting. Is there a single.
JVL
I mean, that's probably very close to happening in the military.
Sarah Longwell
I guess I was googling. Is there a single trans, lesbian, black female running anything? I guess would be the first place to start because, you know, I disagree with the premise. I don't think that there would necessarily be a problem with having a major or a captain who is a trans, lesbian, black female. But if that's the biggest problem facing the military that he's going to need to address, I guess you would think that there'd have to be some evidence that a single one of those people existed. I'm not sure that they do in leadership roles in the military, but I'm happy to be corrected on that. I think that the scary version of this we should talk about, but the amusing idiocracy Hector Mountain Dew Camacho running the government version is leading by a nose in the race, in my mind. And I think it's like, probably it'll be bad for, like, four generals that like wrote memos about their concerns about white nationalism or radicalization in the military. A couple of them are going to be fired. That sucks. I feel bad for those generals. Like, they're going to get fired and then there's going to be like, they're going to not raise the pride flag in June and instead they're going to raise like a Hulk Hogan flag or something. And they're going to ban people from using pronouns besides the pronoun of birth. And, you know, Pete is going to write like memos in crayon to people, like, to the military, like letting them know, you know, how to ensure that heterosexuals get primacy and like that. And then they're gonna declare victory. Like, I kind of think that is like gonna be his main remit. And then there'll be some other. Other people that do everything else. Yeah.
JVL
Are you at all concerned that he might try to make the military friendly to white nationalism?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. That's not great.
JVL
That kind of worries me in the long term, right? I mean, if the military becomes an incubator for that. Because again, this is the kind of thing we see in other countries, right? Like you talk about like the Pakistani military or the Egyptian military and they have their own political subcultures and everybody, like nobody is quite sure whose side they're on.
Sarah Longwell
I guess I just think that's a bottom up thing. And like the only difference, which is bad is that like, people will feel free to like show off their punisher taps and like put punisher stickers on their Kevlar vests and like, rather than just kind of post about it on the Internet, like, is it real? You know, I don't know. Like, is it any different like the.
JVL
Top down once you stop feeling like you have to hide that stuff.
Unknown
That's true. Jvo, I will say. And this going. It's not, it's. I agree with Tim. It's not great. But here is where the clownishness I do think can become just sort of an asset, which four years is not necessarily long enough to engender complete cultural change in an institution that has an extraordinarily strong culture. Right. And so you can fire a couple people you can like. I agree. I think he will do some of these things. But in terms of making it like so, for example, I'll give you one example of where I think it would be tough for them to make a change because of the ingrained culture. So I know that Pete Hegseth much less so than making. Talking about white nationalism has said that he does not think women should be in combat. Right. That's something that I think he's talked about in that book. That's a big something that he believes going and taking women out of combat now at a time when they are having a really difficult time staffing an all volunteer military. Like, one of the reasons that having women in the military became increasingly attractive is that we have a career military. There were lots of women who wanted careers in the military and they needed more people to come have careers in the military. And so the idea that they would simply like he would be able to flip a switch and purge, that seems. Seems unlikely. And furthermore, the idea that they could shift the culture to such a degree that it became. I mean, I actually think we already have a little bit of a problem where people who are in the military, it's not so much white nationalism, but I think there's like, if you go and look at the people who like stake out the border and join these militias, many of them are ex military. Right. It is people who are sort of looking for something to do now that they no longer have their military world and they sort of go find another war to fight. And so I think it's already a problem. So it might exacerbate that problem. But I don't know that. I think that it is like bottom falling out situation. And this is where I'm like, I recognize this is a very serious job and that you are now in charge of 3 million members of the military. But I would take clown over pernicious actor. I believe in this. I'm testing that theory a little bit, but that's my gut instinct.
Sarah Longwell
This is. And I want to get to the worst part. But just really quick on the clown over serious danger. This is where me and Bill are in a disagreement because Bill wrote for the morning newsletter about how this is an important moment for demonstrating that the Trump's MAGA people can't get everything they want and they can be stopped. But I don't know, maybe that's true. Maybe I'll feel differently about this in January. But to me it's like, what I don't understand why we should let the Republicans unravel themselves from this and feel, and make themselves feel more serious than they are. Because there is no rationale by which you could say, I think that Donald Trump should be the commander in chief of the military, but I do not believe that Pete Hegseth should be the Secretary of defense. I'd love to hear somebody try to make that case in a Serious forum in a long form setting. Maybe some. I don't know what their case would be though.
JVL
None of them actually believe that Donald Trump should be the commander.
Sarah Longwell
Well, unfortunately, they all supported him. Right.
JVL
No, I know, but this is the difference between what they say in public, what they say in private. Right.
Sarah Longwell
So for me it's like, why would you, why would we want, why would we encourage them to give themselves the patina of seriousness when it's like there is like, I mean, if Donald Trump's going to be the president, why not Pete Hegseth and Secretary of Defense and Judge Janine at doj and Mike Huckabee is the ambassador. Israel, he already is that. And I don't know what other hosts we can give things. Tyrus. Tyrus. What?
JVL
Purging the general officer corps.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I mean, that's not good. That's not good. But they signed up for that. Donald Trump wants. Again, Donald Trump wants to do that. It's not Pete Eggsets that just wants to do that. So I guess the serious problem that you get to then on purging the general officer corps is is that part of some effort to like create a loyal, a military full of loyalists to Donald Trump and I think Republican Guard.
JVL
Just to pick out a term.
Sarah Longwell
Well, I think that that's a tail risk. I think that's a tail risk. It's like that's challenging to do in three years. And the military.
Unknown
This is my point about the short period of time.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Unknown
Like to create that, to undermine the entire culture in three years. I'm saying it could move in a not good direction, but like the bottom falls out and now he's got Republican Guard scenes and it's like John Kelly.
JVL
Shifting beneath our FE. We didn't realize it kind of like 2016 maybe.
Sarah Longwell
But how easy is it to demonstrate? Just look, just look at Kelly, Mattis, Miller, they all got picked by him. You know what I mean? It's one of those things where. And all these people fucking convince themselves that we're preening panic artists and Donald Trump really is strength through peace through strength leader. And so it's not actually as easy to vet the types of people that would go along with a Trump coup as you think. Because like, to be honest, like John Kelly would have seemed like somebody that would have gone along with it. I think if you're doing a little system internally, you're like, all right, well he took DHS and he went along with the Muslim ban and he enforced that. And like this might be a guy that we could try. You know what I mean? Like, I don't know. It's not as obvious as people think. Like, if they're for. I think they said they're 44 generals. Like, who are the four that would go along with it? Who are the eight that we have to purge? I don't know that that is the.
JVL
Optimistic view on this.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that is the optimistic view on this.
JVL
That's the optimistic view. Sarah, do you have a message for us?
Unknown
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Sarah Longwell
Well, jbl, before you go, can I. Can I break the show map here a little bit? Sure, for a second. Is that okay? Of course. I've been receiving some texts. There's a New New York Times piece out how Trump won. Thirteen young, undecided voters discuss why they voted for Trump. And I just think it'd be fun to do this live and read a couple of them to you, if that's okay. I should have been listening to the Bullen Branch endorsement, which I fully second, but instead I was reading some of these. Okay. Are you ready? Jasper, 25. Jasper's 25. He's biracial and works in food service. He voted for Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024. He says, I'm kind of worried about Project 2025. If some aspect of that goes through, people are going to blame me for voting for Trump. I'm also a little bit worried about food safety scares. I'm also worried about personal immaturity type stuff where he'll just say things to world leaders. We could enter into a nuclear war. So maybe don't do that. This is warning to the man that he voted for. Aisha, 21, South Asian, didn't vote in 2020, voted this time for Trump. At least there's not going to be another January 6th, you know, because he's already, that already happened. Lillian, 27, white, works in digital advertising. The thing that was really the nail in the coffin for me was when Biden called half the country garbage and then the White House moved to change the record officially. That really bothered me. That made me want to rally.
JVL
So the White House attempt to put an apostrophe in a transcript for a speaker who wasn't on the ballot made her vote against. Okay, okay, okay.
Unknown
Actually, can I, can I make a comment about what. But what's interesting to me about that.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, sure.
Unknown
Is that all of those people, that means that they were listening to content going into the election in which the kerfuffle over the garbage comment and then the White House's, you know, sort of scrambled to defend it and say that that person, like that is the thing that they saw, whatever they were watching or reading, somebody viewed that like that was the thing they were drilling down on. And I think that especially among young people. So I will say I've been doing a bunch of focus groups post election with these sort of Biden to Trump voters. And one of the things that I think is going to be fodder for a lot of discussion is the way a lot of our terms around Republican and Democrat have lost a great deal of utility as we see the coalition shift. Because these voters are not Republicans. They are red pilled and red pilled in the sense that it is a rejection of the establishment, rejection of political elites, rejection of the media. It is not defined by a set, by set ideology or anything that they are for or interested in. It is built around what they reject. And they reject it because the media that they consume, the things that they see mainly on TikTok and other things, are basically creating for them the sense that the Real people that are messing it up are these elites like Joe Biden. And I just think you should grapple with this.
Sarah Longwell
This is a nice transition into the norms convo that you're going to do, but I have to read one more first because this was in a swing state. Pierce, 26, North Carolina white. Didn't vote in 2020. I voted for Trump. I decided after Kamala went on Call Her Daddy. So there you go. Maybe Kamala shouldn't do as many podcasts as I do. More podcasts. He saw Call Her Daddy. He's like, nope, not presidential enough for Pierce. Don't want to see these ladies talking about their coochies on a podcast.
JVL
Are we sure, I mean, are we.
Sarah Longwell
Really, really sure that we should have a democracy?
JVL
No, no, no, no. That these aren't people who actually were just Republican voters.
Sarah Longwell
We're not sure.
JVL
We're not swept up. We're not like 60 minutes. I think recently, like, you know, like. Because these things sound like what I would conjure up if I was writing a column making fun of people like this.
Sarah Longwell
Right.
Unknown
No, I think they're real. And the reason is, is that we've just done a bunch of focus groups and I've been listening to them and it's. And it is like they all sound red pilled.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. So the norms question. It does. So my. The Daily Today we had a long conversation with this guy Acita Wanvu about. And I had the same conversation with Pablo Torre about like, the Democrats are in a fucking tough position right now where if the predominant culture is institutions suck, everything sucks and we gotta tear it down. And the Dems have to be the ones that are like, no, we think things are great. Like the. Our institutions are strong and we should respect experts and elites. Like, that's a losing hand to play. So anyway, I think that is relevant to what you're saying and where JVL was going.
JVL
So I was actually going to skip the norms because we're starting to run long and the other two things on my to do list here are more important.
Sarah Longwell
Okay, well then could you just give an answer to that? Jbl, what's your short. We can have a longer pod another time. What's your short answer to the Democrats? Assuming that the thesis is true, that's being laid out by Sarah and these focus groups and what we're seeing elsewhere, that the Democrats having to defend the system is putting them in a bad place with key voters. How do you fix that?
JVL
My short term, my tentative answer, because I really don't this is something I've thought a lot about so far and I don't have. And neither of you are going to like it. Is that the way the Democrats square the circle is by going into very, very hard, into populist radical economics and it becomes like an eat the rich. The system they're rebelling against is. Is the billionaire class and the oligarch class. And it looks much more like Bernie than Josh Shapiro, I think. I mean, just, again, this is not a preference thing, but just be for precisely the reasons you say. Like, if, you know, you have to. So you can still be pro rule of law in that scenario. Right. But you have an institution that you're scapegoating.
Sarah Longwell
I think you can also be populist center. Populist center. We have to reform the campaign finance, get the billionaires out of our political system. Da, da. Right. Like, there are ways to do that.
JVL
Maybe you could do that. I mean, I would like to live.
Unknown
The people who ran ahead of Kamala Harris, the Democrats who ran ahead of her held their seats. Whatever. They ran against Democratic Party, like insanity. Like. Like government overreach. And they did not run as populists. They didn't. They ran Colin Allred, you know, you guys like it or not, But I was looking at the. What he said he made. He made the trans stuff. He like said. I do not think he had a whole ad. The focus of it was I don't want boys and girls, sports. And I. So I just. I have seen no evidence electorally that the more populist Bernie, like, candidates did.
JVL
But that's different than the trans stuff, though, right? I mean, the more populist stuff is a straight economic. It issues all of the identity politics stuff and runs right at sort of a hardcore economic populism, which I think is like sort of where Walls was kind of. I don't know.
Unknown
Tim Walls.
JVL
Yes.
Sarah Longwell
Horrible.
Unknown
Guys, we have not done a relitigation of Tim Walls, but if we do at some point, never been.
JVL
I mean, look, five minutes from now, nobody in America is even going to remember who he was. Yeah, we can avoid that.
Unknown
That's a. That's a. There was a loud. Okay, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.
Sarah Longwell
Kind of a point, though.
Unknown
Yeah, that is. That's exactly. That's the. That is. That's the point.
JVL
So Elon Musk seems to maybe kind of be like the shadow president. He was on the phone call between Trump and He was appointed to the Doge Committee, which. Tim, I saw the thing you and Sam did last night. On this, the only thing you missed is that obviously the report should not come out on July 4th. It should come out on April 20th. Because this is like, Elon loves weed jokes. Like, loves weed jokes more than anything. And is in 420. Or is it 4:22?
Sarah Longwell
420? 4:20.
JVL
4:20. Yeah, it should come out on April 20th. Obviously.
Unknown
They could just do it at 4:20 in the afternoon. That's what's.
JVL
Elon was with Trump at the House GOP meeting today as well.
Sarah Longwell
Co president.
JVL
Do you guys have any thoughts about this?
Sarah Longwell
Somebody. I hate it when I steal a thought that I don't, that I forget who did it. But the Elon Trump thing has a whiff of being less Elon going into Twitter and tearing everything up and more Elon marrying Grimes and having a couple of children with weird names and then divorcing and falling out with all. Like he has with all of his wives. I just.
JVL
Did he. Did he split with Grimes most recently?
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. No, I mean, no. I mean, they're on again, off again. My point is he's had several failed marriages, and it feels more like a failed marriage than a takeover. Like, is this really gonna last? Like, that Elon Trump, buddy comedy? Like, how long could this possibly fucking last?
Unknown
So let me tell you what it reminds me of, which is Bannon, right? Which is what happens when Trump has somebody who provides him a lot of help by bringing him sort of a populist message that Trump, you know, is like, oh, okay. And, like, so somebody's kind of an architect of something with him, helps him out. But then that person goes around all their friends being like, no, I'm the. Really the one running the show. No, I have a lot of power. Let me tell you about all my influence. And Donald Trump, he. That doesn't sit with him, right? Like, he needs total subservience. You don't get to have your own, like, universe of loyalists. He needs all of it to transfer to him. And if it doesn't and he thinks you're using him to build your own influence, he will cut you off.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
JVL
Can I. Can I. Can I float something that I would like to you guys to pass a verdict on?
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
JVL
Trump, greater sign. Greater sign. Musk. In terms of if one of the two of them had to be president or had to watch my children or had to sit across from me for a meal for two hours, in every single possible case, I would take Donald Trump over Elon Musk because Trump is a degenerate and a liar, bully and all those other things. And Musk is an insane person.
Sarah Longwell
I'm a no in that. Except for the dinner. I don't want to have dinner with Elon Musk. But in the other categories, I would rather have Elon Musk in charge. I mean, he did land the rocket on the rocket thing. I don't know. I mean, his system, maybe they're both just the luckiest fucking people on earth, but the government gave money to SpaceX and to Boeing to come up with low orbit satellites or whatever to figure out. And SpaceX figured out how to do it and Boeing didn't. So I don't know. Tesla created. Maybe he's just good at hiring people, but whatever, that would then make him better than Donald Trump if it's just as simple as that. And like Elon is just a fucking weird Svengali and it's all smart people behind the curtain. I don't know. But they've worked on the satellite, on the rocket, on the electric car. His shit's worked when other people's haven't. So I guess I'd rather go with him. I think that it's deeply. It's the most corrupt relationship that has existed in the federal government in modern times. Not going back to the industrialist. The idea that he's in charge of culling government spending while also being the largest government contractor.
JVL
Right.
Sarah Longwell
And Ike is hard to even explain to people. Just the scale of corruption and how it compares to other little corruptions that people worry about. People like, oh, big pharma is really like the revolving door. It's like, yeah, yeah, there's some other corruptions with the revolving door, but this is like literally like the dude is in charge. He's deputizing him to be in charge of government spending when he's a recipient of massive amounts of governments.
JVL
Anyway, Sarah, do you have Elon thoughts?
Unknown
Oh, I would rather starve than have dinner with either of them. I would. The answer is no to them.
JVL
Dinner with Trump would be kind of fun.
Unknown
No, fun's the wrong word.
JVL
Yeah.
Unknown
I sort of agree with Tim, though, in terms of. Elon has at least done impressive things. Like Donald Trump just bankrupted everything and pissed it all away. I don't know. And stiffs everybody. Donald Trump is not an impressive person. He figured out how to. He got in an industry where he said, okay, I can figure out how to act as unethically as possible and do that, to climb to the top. And I will tax cheat. Yeah. And I'll still bankrupt myself and I'll use The shield of that to be able to keep doing all this. Trump is not. He is a very lazy, dumb person's image of what a rich, powerful person is versus. Versus Elon Musk, who I think has done legitimately interesting and world changing things. But also this, like, this idea about corruption. Like that just because somebody's. This is. Just because somebody is good at one thing does not mean that they should be put in charge of all the other things, though. Like, that is a thing that we do in our culture that I think is weird. We're like, oh, you figured this thing out that requires complex physics formulas. Maybe you should control the federal budget. Like, they don't all translate.
Sarah Longwell
You've been really good at doing segments about the woke Bud Light beer can with himbos on a couch on Saturday mornings. Maybe you should be in charge of the largest bureaucracy in the world.
Unknown
Yeah.
JVL
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Unknown
Did you guys see Sebastian said Thune's going to be the majority leader?
JVL
Yeah, I saw that. I don't have any thoughts on that. I will. We'll get to that. Maybe if you wanted to do the button. But I want to talk about Jack Smith. So we got news last night that Jack Smith is planning to resign before Trump takes over. And I, I am curious as to what you guys think about that because that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. And I don't understand why. We're going to save Trump the fight of firing Jack Smith and then the public shame of going after everybody in DOJ who doesn't resign over it or what? Like, what? Why would you, why would you deny Trump that cost to doing the thing he wants? Why would you make it go away on your own? But maybe I'm missing something.
Unknown
Maybe because there does. I'm not sure there's as much value add in him firing him as you might think. Like, I think this is one of those things that everybody's like, yeah, that's.
JVL
Going away, but it's unprecedented. Right. To make him fire him. No, Maybe I'm just overthinking this.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Aren't there other parts of the investigation, too? I mean, you know, I'm with. I know I'm with you. I don't know that I have really deep thoughts about it, but I don't like it. And, you know, I guess I don't see what is the point of quitting beforehand just to avoid the hassle.
JVL
I don't know if that's it or if it's so there. He has to give a final report by statute, to the Attorney general. And maybe the answer is that if he does, if he gets out ahead of time, he can give his final report to Merrick Garland in the hopes that Merrick Garland makes it public. Whereas if the final report goes To Attorney General. Attorney General slash Judge Janine. She would. Would disappear it, right? She just pop it in the shredder. So maybe that's the calculation. And if so, and if what's in the report is damning and if Garland releases it, then I think I understand, and it all makes sense. But if Merrick Garland is like, nope, there's. There's no. There's really no public value in releasing this information. We gotta, you know, be apolitical here, then that fucking guy.
Unknown
I do think George has kind of been on this, on. On the legal side, where he thinks that kind of, like, the one thing that really needs to happen is that Jack Smith has to figure out a way to make this public, and the public should know what's in there, just for historical posterity, if nothing else, even if it's not persuasive from a public opinion standpoint. And I think that sounds right to me. I do think the American public, because this stuff all moved so slow and we didn't actually get to adjudicate Trump's crimes, I think that the. Whether it is posterity or public opinion, whether it would have mattered or not mattered, I do think it was important for America to know the truth about Trump's mishandling of classified documents. I think it was important for the American people before he. Before they had to face the choice of electing him again. And we didn't get those. And I think that's been really. It's a net harm in a lot of ways.
JVL
I mean, he could have gotten both, though, right? I mean, if he stayed on, he could have forced Trump to fire him, and he could have given his final report to. To Trump's ag, and then he could also have given a version of it to the New York Times. I mean, Jack Smith is not without agency here, right?
Unknown
I don't know about that.
JVL
Why not that?
Unknown
Well, I don't know. Like, I don't know what the. I would. I would have somebody from DOJ advise me on, like, what this is, but, like, the idea that you can just be appointed a special counsel and just leak everything to the New York Times, that feels like maybe a road.
JVL
Feels like. I've had special counsels in American history who have done exactly that. Ken Starr did. A lot of leaking.
Sarah Longwell
A lot of leaking from Ken Starr. That's true. Can I throw out there Ken Starr's office?
JVL
Sorry. And I don't mean Ken Starr person, but, like, you know that this, the special prosecutor, the impending counsel office is a sprawling thing. Like, it's it's got dozens of people in it. Like, it is what I'm saying.
Sarah Longwell
And I just. We should just say, like, there are obviously Mueller leaks before the final report. Like, again, like, not everything went out, but is it. I guess we should just throw into the possibility that fear of retribution is driving this.
JVL
Yeah, right. Trump has talked about wanting to arrest everybody who was doing this. Right. Hasn't he spoken specifically about Jack Smith himself? Yes.
Sarah Longwell
So, again, I'd like to know more before I render a verdict. I'm with you. It should be public, but I think that there are a lot of concerning reasons why he would be doing it. He would be resigning first.
JVL
Do you think Garland would sit on it instead of releasing it? I find that hard to believe. But I gotta say, and I guess this is a real question for you guys, retrospective. And maybe it's not fair to Judge Merrick Garland retrospectively, because we know things now in 2024 that we didn't know in 2021. But his decision to slow walk all of that and to give the Republican Party the grace to move on from Trump, to give Trump the ability to walk away and, you know, stop the bleeding in the body politic and all that, that stuff looked statesman like, but questionable. And now I think it looks hopelessly naive and catastrophically foolish.
Sarah Longwell
I have a button thought on this. I think that beginning literally as early as June 2015 with the way that the Republican other campaigns, including one that I was working on, dealt with Trump, Trump has benefited from his opponent's lack of imagination about his political potential and the nefariousness of his potential activities. And, you know, like, we did a lot of campaigns, we didn't. We. I always, when people ask me, what is. What do you look back on for 2016? Is there any way you could have stopped Trump in the primary? And, like, the only thing I can think of is had we tried to kill him in the crib, not literally the phrase, but, like, had there been an oppo campaign against him to stop him, to remind people how liberal he was, to just, like, prevent him from getting momentum, maybe that wouldn't have worked, by the way. But that didn't happen. Right? Like, he was able to get this huge Runway and he was winning, but by the time anybody really tried to throw a punch at him, and so that was based on, like, a naivete, like, Trump's not really going to win. Like, actually it'd be better if we let him get up there, because then if it's Marco and Trump last or Jeb and Trump last, we'll be able to beat him because he's so weak, right? So that naivete undergirded McConnell's failures, Garland's failures, Ruth Bader Ginsburg's failures, Hillary Clinton's failures, Joe Biden's. And I think that but it's probably a good lesson for right now also, as we contemplate questions such as might he try to run again in 2028? Pete Hegseth, how dangerous could he be? Et cetera, et cetera. So I think that that's true about Merrick Garland, but I think it's true about basically everybody.
JVL
I have nothing to add to that. Guys, good show. Super long show. I feel like we're coming to a better place. I feel like maybe, maybe it's just so crazy that everything could all work out okay in the end. See you next week.
E
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Summary of "The Next Level" Podcast Episode: "Trump 2028?"
Podcast Information:
In the "Trump 2028?" episode of The Next Level podcast, hosts Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last engage in a comprehensive discussion about the potential implications of Donald Trump attempting a third presidential run in 2028. The conversation traverses constitutional debates, the integrity of democratic institutions, military appointments, and voter motivations, all while highlighting the broader threats to American democracy.
JVL initiates the conversation by sharing his conviction that Donald Trump will seek a third term:
[01:20] JVL: "I have been on this spot for a very long time saying that Donald Trump will attempt to run for a third term."
He elaborates on Trump’s strategy of teasing his potential candidacy over the next few years:
[02:02] JVL: "He will use the period between now and like 2027 to constantly tease the idea in a will he won’t he sort of way."
Sarah Longwell compares Trump’s approach to the infamous Ross and Rachel dynamic from Friends:
[02:02] Sarah: "Kind of like a Ross and Rachel type thing, you know?"
The discussion shifts to the constitutional constraints surrounding a potential Trump third term. JVL contends that, technically, Trump might circumvent the 22nd Amendment by running for Vice President and then ascending to the presidency:
[03:09] JVL: "It is possible that he could run... run as the vice president... and resign the office."
Sarah counters by questioning the adequacy of comparing the 14th Amendment to the 22nd:
[05:04] Sarah: "the 14th amendment was a lot, a lot murkier than the 22nd."
She emphasizes the necessity of legal vigilance:
[05:30] Sarah: "That risk, whether you assess it to be 2% or 40%, is too great. We've never had that risk since FDR."
A significant portion of the episode focuses on Pete Hegseth’s potential nomination as Secretary of Defense and its implications for the military and democracy.
JVL critiques Hegseth’s qualifications and likens his nomination to appointing an actress to a high-level government position:
[15:00] JVL: "I think this is like nominating Alison Janney to be Secretary of the Treasury because she was on The West Wing."
Sarah expresses concerns about Hegseth’s agenda within the military, particularly regarding transgender policies:
[27:12] Sarah: "He talks about how now for promotions, firsts is the most important factor... the military will not stop until trans, lesbian, black females run everything."
The hosts discuss the potential for Hegseth to influence the military culture towards white nationalism and undermine institutional integrity:
[29:17] Sarah: "Are you at all concerned that he might try to make the military friendly to white nationalism?"
Tim Miller introduces the notion that concerns about democracy often take a backseat to immediate economic issues, making it challenging to focus on institutional threats:
[21:18] Tim: "We're seeing a lot of people focusing on the economy... democracy is a luxury item in some ways."
JVL warns about Trump’s anti-establishment tendencies and their impact on democratic institutions:
[04:42] JVL: "This is a guy with really bad intentions, extraconstitutional intentions, and he will stress our institutions in ways that our country is not quite prepared for."
Sarah adds that despite some optimistic economic indicators among Republicans, the underlying threats to democracy persist:
[12:48] Sarah: "Republicans increasingly think the economy is doing great... but the underlying threats to democracy persist."
The hosts examine why certain young, undecided voters are leaning towards Trump, sharing excerpts from the New York Times:
Jasper, 25 (Biracial, Food Service):
[38:52] Jasper: "I'm kind of worried about Project 2025... worried about personal immaturity type stuff where he'll just say things to world leaders. We could enter into a nuclear war."
Aisha, 21 (South Asian):
[39:21] Aisha: "At least there's not going to be another January 6th..."
Lillian, 27 (White, Digital Advertising):
[39:37] Lillian: "When Biden called half the country garbage and the White House moved to change the record... that really bothered me."
Pierce, 26 (North Carolina, White):
[41:23] Pierce: "I voted for Trump after Kamala went on Call Her Daddy."
JVL summarizes these motivations, highlighting a rejection of the political establishment:
[40:00] JVL: "These voters are not Republicans. They are red-pilled... built around what they reject."
The conversation turns to the recent resignation of Jack Smith, the Special Counsel investigating Trump. JVL expresses frustration over Smith’s departure, speculating on the strategic reasons behind it:
[55:43] JVL: "Jack Smith is planning to resign... I don't understand why we're going to save Trump the fight of firing Jack Smith..."
Unknown Guest suggests that Smith might aim to release the report through alternative channels:
[59:57] Unknown: "I think it's important for America to know the truth about Trump's mishandling of classified documents."
Sarah contemplates the implications of Smith’s resignation, questioning the transparency and motives:
[56:10] Sarah: "I don't like it... I don't see what is the point of quitting beforehand just to avoid the hassle."
As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the precarious state of American democracy, the rising influence of populist figures like Trump and Musk, and the urgent need to safeguard institutional integrity. They emphasize the importance of public awareness and legal frameworks in preventing potential authoritarian shifts.
JVL concludes with a mix of skepticism and hope:
[62:48] JVL: "It’s so crazy that everything could all work out okay in the end. See you next week."
JVL on Trump’s Strategy:
[02:02] JVL: "He will use the period between now and like 2027 to constantly tease the idea in a will he won’t he sort of way."
Sarah on Constitutional Risks:
[05:30] Sarah: "That risk, whether you assess it to be 2% or 40%, is too great. We've never had that risk since FDR."
JVL on Democracy as a Luxury:
[13:07] JVL: "If democracy is a luxury good that you can only think about in good times..."
Sarah on Voter Psychosocial Factors:
[42:07] Sarah: "We have a lot of things that even like places like Orban's, Hungary and other places where we've seen sort of democratic slide..."
JVL on Military and Institutional Integrity:
[29:17] JVL: "I have been thinking about what is the threat level of these choices... he will stress our institutions in ways that our country is not quite prepared for."
The episode "Trump 2028?" delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by Donald Trump's potential bid for a third presidential term. Through incisive analysis and critical discussions, the hosts highlight the fragility of democratic institutions, the complexities of constitutional law, and the shifting motivations of voters. The conversation serves as a stern reminder of the vigilance required to preserve democratic integrity in the face of populist threats.