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- [00:00]
Tim Miller
I want to have the former president on the podcast. We have invited him. So please don't take this too personally, Mr. Obama, but I'd like to see you in handcuffs. I mean, I think that. I think it'd be great. I think they should send ice in. And let's see it.
- [00:15]
JVL
Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Before we get started, hit like and subscribe. Follow the channel and hang with us because buckle up your chin straps. Shit's about to get weird. Yesterday, the President of the United States said that a former president of the United States had committed treason and should be arrested and put in jail and nobody fucking cares.
- [00:42]
Tim Miller
I care.
- [00:45]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, we're going to talk about it.
- [00:46]
Tim Miller
I also need to issue a correction from yesterday when Sam and I did a video on this, and this is Sam's fault. So we can blame Sam while he's not here, which was the concept was that he watched the press conference and I was going to kind of react. And he talked about how Trump had said that Obama was being seditious and has committed treason. That's not right, actually, though, if you go watch the video, Trump said that Obama was sedatious. Sedatious, which is not a word, actually. So he tried to learn a new word.
- [01:18]
Sarah Longwell
It's when it's bodacious and you're sedated, it's like you're sedated. Awesomely.
- [01:23]
Tim Miller
It's awesome. Bodacious. Sedition.
- [01:26]
JVL
All of this is downstream of the this week's Jeffrey Epstein Show. And I guess we'll start by saying that Trump has decided that the Jeffrey Epstein thing is going to be like the Russia hoax, and he's just going to blame Obama for it, and that'll be enough. Is he right?
- [01:51]
Tim Miller
No.
- [01:52]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, I think maybe. Well, no, no, I don't think he's right. I think it's. I think this is great. I mean, I think this is his sense of panic. To be like, we're going to arrest Barack Obama, I think is a wild, massive calcul miscalculation on his part. I think when you have just told all of your followers that we hyped you up in a lot of ways, told you there was going to be massive accountability, and then didn't give it to you, and your way of trying to get out of that is to do the same thing again, I think that's a miscalculation where I think it might work. And I don't know if Now's the right time to talk about this or later. We were doing a focus group last night with kind of OG MAGA types, like people who voted for.
- [02:36]
JVL
But you're taking the summer off from focus groups. You can't stop, can you?
- [02:40]
Sarah Longwell
I can't stop. I still do the focus groups.
- [02:43]
Tim Miller
Dragon.
- [02:43]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not junkie.
- [02:45]
Tim Miller
I just need one more little key bump.
- [02:49]
Sarah Longwell
I don't know what the voters think about Epstein.
- [02:52]
JVL
I need to see a flipper.
- [02:54]
Sarah Longwell
Someone give me a flipper. No, these were, these were 20.
- [03:00]
JVL
Not a double hater.
- [03:02]
Sarah Longwell
Not a double hater. No, these were, these were MAGA all through 2020 Trump voters. 2024 Trump voters, actually. I'm not sure if they were 2016 Trump voters. And this was the crowd. And this is. These are, these are the people who are not. When we say the base, these people are the base. And it's not what I mean when I'm thinking about the people who care about Epstein and I think this is actually really important. As we round our third week of Epstein talk, knowing who cares about Epstein and who's a dead end Trumper, like, I will defend him to the depths is a good thing to start parsing out because they are sort of different groups and this is the kind of group my team was like, oh, it's so depressing. And I was like, no, this is exactly. I knew this is what we were going to see. And like, this feels exactly right to me, what they do. This group, these are the people, the cognitive dissonance types where they say pedophilia is awful and so bad. And like, yes, I wanted to know about Epstein, but also Trump, Trump has nothing to do with Epstein. And also, let's not talk about this anymore. Like, and like very. I mean they are. Let's. And let's move on. And they're the ones who say, but Obama is going to get arrested.
- [04:20]
Tim Miller
And so they know, they really said it. You had people in the groups that thought Obama was going to get arrested.
- [04:26]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, they wanted to talk about the Obama thing. They wanted to move on from the Epstein. Why are we talking about Epstein? Why is the media talking about Epstein? Why won't they let this go? What we should be talking about is.
- [04:35]
Tim Miller
Obama and, And they expected arrest or was. Or just like, it's more, it's more kind of just like vague. Like it's pretty. A bad black man and like he did some stuff that was shady and he went after Trump and we should investigate kind of whatever.
- [04:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, like they're just like defend Trump. Like they have, they have a neural pathway that has been grooved into their brain about Obama and, you know, the other people and Russia, Rush Russia. That is just like comfortable territory. Epstein. You see them like start to blinker. Like, it's like, I can't. It falls apart really fast. And they even seem to sort of know that. And so they just were like, let's move on. And I am like, they told the.
- [05:22]
Tim Miller
Moderator of the focus group to move on.
- [05:24]
Sarah Longwell
They were kind of like, I don't know, I don't really want to talk about this.
- [05:28]
JVL
You know.
- [05:30]
Sarah Longwell
And it was funny because it was, it was like sort of a. It was like a normal group of slightly. I don't want to say dumb. No, no, I was going to say, I was going to say they are, they are typical of the conspiracy minded MAGA types. Except there was one woman who made all of them look normal by comparison because she was a. She was the best. She was like, chemtrails. They're seeding the clouds to change the weather. Which I had not heard of, cloud seeding. But if you guys.
- [06:05]
Tim Miller
A big deal. Florida, Florida has created some laws against that. Actually. It's such a big deal down in Florida that Ron Desanctimonious has signed, I think, or at least an executive order. They did a ruling in Florida preventing the cloud seeding.
- [06:18]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, no, this is a real thing that, that only comes up in the group. She was a chemtrails person. She was also an. Epstein wasn't murdered, didn't kill himself. He was smuggled out of the jail and he is living in Madagascar. And so the thing was when you get one of those people, those are.
- [06:36]
JVL
Like, did she say Madagascar?
- [06:38]
Sarah Longwell
Madagascar.
- [06:39]
JVL
Do you know why?
- [06:41]
Sarah Longwell
I don't.
- [06:42]
JVL
I'll bet you anything this has to do with like the Nazi plan to move Jews to Madagascar. Well, this is such an odd country to pick.
- [06:50]
Sarah Longwell
So it's interesting you say that because she also hates Howard Ludnick because he knew he didn't go to his office on the day of 911 because maybe he knew it was coming.
- [07:04]
Tim Miller
I can brief you on this. I could. I, I did, I did about an hour of Alex Jones earlier this week. And I can breathe because I was also confused. It was Barry, you know, our favorite, you know, Longwell team member Barry was, was actually the one that was watching Alex Jones and he's like, he sent me a clip and it was like 50 seconds and mentioned the Lutnick thing. And I was like, I need to watch the whole hour. I Need to understand the context here. But essentially this is where she's getting the Lutnik thing from. The issue is that Lutnick is involved with Israel in some way. And also Epstein and they were neighbors. They had like a real estate deal together. And in the Jones theory, I guess he got the tip off on 9 11. But also because the Jews did it not from a massage, just to be clear. Yeah, it was Mossad that did 9 11. A lot of Jews died on 9 11. That theory kind of falls apart there. But anyway, that's neither here nor there. But now it's Lutnick that pressured Trump to tell Bondi to put the document out. And the COVID up is not about Trump. Actually, Trump didn't do anything. It was. Lutnick had convinced him that we need to move on from this to focus on the economic agenda. It gets a, it's a little fuzzy, but like, I think that's the, that's kind of the narrative there. That's why she brought him up.
- [08:27]
Sarah Longwell
Well, she was the one who was the most adamant that we needed to see the Epstein files. Everybody else was more in the, in the kind of like, Trump can't fail. He can only be failed. And so when we ask about, like, do you think the DOJ is screwing up the Epstein stuff, they were like, yes, the DOJ is, is terrible. They are f. This is all getting screwed up. And then the. And like, but Trump, Trump's okay. I mean, they were kind of giving him B's and C's. I wouldn't say. And this is one thing I'd say these are OG maga. They are in pretty deep. There's no pulling them back on Trump. But they're also a little like, they talk about him like he's a child, like he's not quite hitting his potential or like someone maybe you need to give ADHD medication to. And so they're, these are, they're just like, they're so polarized that they're going to defend Trump no matter what. Like, that's who these people were. But it was still an interesting ride to, to sort of see what was landing and to see how much they want to move on from Epstein, which is a good reason. It's not a good. It's not the only reason. But I would like to say that our third week, I do think we're going to be talking about Epstein for the foreseeable. And these are the kind of people who are going to get mad because the mainstream media is now talking about this. And oh, people are going to use this to make Trump look bad, whatever that's going to be in there. That group of people's going to be in there. But they don't want you to keep talking about it because it makes their boy look bad and it, it struck, it causes their brains to short circuit. So we got to keep, it's, it's.
- [10:08]
Tim Miller
Interesting that that one lady represented the group. I, I was trying, I think it was Nicole. I forget which, which content activation I was doing when I was trying to explain this to somebody with the base and then I was like, you call it contact activation, content activation. It's a joke about what we're doing here. It's like, you know, this is a content that we're doing a content activation right now. It's also the next level podcast. So the. Is that like my understanding of the base, which seems to have been borne out in this focus group is that there is a category of people because like a reasonable question if you come to this from the outside is why did they want the Epstein finals to be released anyway when there's so much evidence that Trump was involved with Epstein. Right. Like it seemed like a self owned to start with. And the answer is that there is like a category of people on the base who believe like this crazy like superhero movie type theory about Trump where like Trump. What, Like Trump was inside but like he's fight, you know, he's, he's, you know, getting the pedophiles from like inside Serpico. Yeah, right. Like he's the elite that is taking down the other elites and you need somebody who knows the game to beat the game and like that kind of thing. And that is like that woman, right? It's like she still wants to see the Epstein files because they still can't believe that Trump could be in there. Because Trump in this story, which I think is true, there's like one little piece of truth which is also always the case in these theories. Like had this falling out with Epstein and banned him from Mar a Lago.
- [11:38]
Sarah Longwell
That came up. They knew that, that he, that he punted Epstein.
- [11:41]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [11:42]
Sarah Longwell
And so they really grabbed to that.
- [11:43]
Tim Miller
So he couldn't have done anything. Right. Because he did this. It's, they don't, you know, the 17.
- [11:47]
JVL
Years had to be a relationship teenager. Couldn't have been over real estate.
- [11:51]
Tim Miller
Yeah. It couldn't have been over, you know, some other rich guy feud. Anyway, that's part of the group. And then there's another group that just only paid attention to this like Kind of at the Sarah Longwell level, but, like from the right and like, was aware it existed and just know that they like Trump and don't, like, we're kind of whatever, I'm for releasing Epstein files. But now that it seems like it's bad for Trump, they're not, you know, and like, let's move on to Obama, right? Like both of those, like, types of people exist, you know, within his, within his little cult.
- [12:22]
JVL
They make up enough though, don't they?
- [12:24]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, I think this is in your 32%. When I talk about getting Trump down to 32% and I say, like, there's 32% of people who are never going to leave them. Like, this is that group. This is. And so you're not, these are not persuadable people and you're not trying to persuade them. And Epstein's not going to do it.
- [12:42]
JVL
40% though, right? I mean, it's a lot. It's not 15%.
- [12:47]
Sarah Longwell
No. Yeah. 32% a lot.
- [12:49]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [12:49]
JVL
I mean that's.
- [12:50]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [12:51]
Tim Miller
I mean it's 100 million people to give or take. 100 million American.
- [12:57]
JVL
100 million people, which is a big enough base of support to make everything survivable.
- [13:01]
Sarah Longwell
Well, that's not how many people voted for him.
- [13:04]
Tim Miller
I guess that's true. Yeah, I was, I was basing it on the whole population. Yeah, you're right.
- [13:08]
Sarah Longwell
Yes. You don't base it on the whole population.
- [13:10]
Tim Miller
30 million people or 20 million, 25 million people. We're doing quick math here on the pod. Anyway, still too many. A couple dozen million is a lot. Going back to your original question, jvl, on the Obama thing, I guess it depends on what you mean by work. And if the answer is, does this work in the sense that Trump can survive and move on and just like he survived other stuff and still do the horrible. And enact his horrible immigration regime and his weird tariff taco ing and the deals, like, yeah, I don't, you know, demise is not imminent for Donald Trump. But if what you mean by work is like, will it successfully get people to stop talking about this the way that people stop talking about, like the cutter plane, for example. Right. Like, you know, I mean that. If you mean work in like a media sense, right, where he's been very good at like old Steve Bannon flooding the zone with shit and like he has these little scandals and they just come and go. I don't think it will work on that front.
- [14:12]
JVL
Okay, well, here's, here's what I mean by that. When I ask, will it work? What I mean is six months from now, a year from now, when we are heading in towards midterm elections, will this entire thing be reduced to a shorthand version of Obama did the Epstein hoax and in a four word explanation that all Republicans can just sort of reach for and has that. So for them this is put to bed. And you know, again, it starts out with just being the hardcore supporters who accept it, but then eventually all the soft Republicans accept it too. I don't think so how it's been with everything else. Right?
- [14:57]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I also don't think so with.
- [14:59]
JVL
January 6th that how this is how it was with the stolen election lies. Right. They eventually all wind up accepting these things. Right. It starts out by only being accepted by 30%, but that 30% is like 60% of the Republican Party. It is a majority within the Republican Party. And so the other 40% winds up saying, yeah, okay, sure, right.
- [15:20]
Sarah Longwell
I disagree, but so does Tim. So let Tim go first.
- [15:22]
JVL
I'm asking question just.
- [15:23]
Tim Miller
Yeah, no, I hear you. I actually think that it's. I mean obviously there are a lot of ways in which it's different from January 6th, but just like in the meta, from a meta narrative standpoint, I think that it's kind of similar in that yeah, like most of the Republicans wind up coming around bored and I don't know if it will be Obama did the Epstein hoax, but it'll be like, you know, Trump, like, you know, Trump, Trump, whatever. Trump kicked Epstein out of the club and Bill Clinton was on the lead island. And like these guys, you know, this is all, whatever this is all Democrat distraction, something like that. And, and then there'll be some category of people that are, that are on the more extreme end, you know, like just like there was for January 6th or people, there were people that were like antifa did, you know, he throws this chum out there because there'll be some people that'll be like antifa did it. And then there'll be some people that are like we did it, but it was good. And then there were some people that would be like, yeah, they did it, but it wasn't that big of a deal and the media is overhyping it. Right? Like, like there'll be that, you know, range of people all the way on the right. I agree with that. But I think that it's similar to January 6th in that like it. I think now they've made such a mess of this that it will persist to such a degree that assuming that the elections Next November go as relatively normal elections, the Democrats will win the House and like Kash Patel is going to have to testify about the Epstein cover up in 2027. Like you're talking about how we're on week three of this. Like there will be testimony about this happening in Congress, I think more than likely two years from now. So, yeah, I think they've kind of made a. I think they've made a little mess of it.
- [16:58]
JVL
Fingers crossed.
- [16:59]
Sarah Longwell
And also they will have not delivered Obama in handcuffs and sent him to jail.
- [17:04]
Tim Miller
So I think they should do it.
- [17:05]
JVL
Can we.
- [17:06]
Tim Miller
I would like them, I would like to get on too. And I want to have the former president on the podcast. We have invited him. So please don't take this too personally, Mr. Obama, but I'd like to see in handcuffs. I mean, I think that, I think it'd be great. I think they should send ice in.
- [17:20]
JVL
And let's see, does he sue for defamation in, in every bit as valid a way as. Trump sued CBS News for defamation for.
- [17:28]
Sarah Longwell
Saying that he committed treason. I do think Obama. Yeah, defamation, yeah.
- [17:34]
JVL
Let a court, let a court throw that out. Right? And then can you believe this? A Trump judge threw out this case against what? You know, he could just say, if I committed treason, why haven't I been arrested? Right. I mean, of course this is a nonsense lawsuit, but like, I don't know, shouldn't we be playing by the rules that now seem to exist in America?
- [17:55]
Tim Miller
I agree. He should sue Trump.
- [17:56]
Sarah Longwell
That's a great idea, I think, and I think he should. I think it is fine for him to. You know who's a lot more popular than Donald Trump? Barack Obama. Like, I think it is fine for him to get into it with him. I am tired of.
- [18:10]
JVL
I saw an Obama spokesman call this all a distraction yesterday and I'm going to lose my mind.
- [18:16]
Sarah Longwell
But Obama, Obama responded. Obama put out a statement, two paragraph.
- [18:21]
Tim Miller
Statement, though that was, that was, you know, we shouldn't have to lower ourselves to this and this is wrong. And then, you know, there's a little hit on Rubio in there. He's like, I didn't say anything different from what his own secretary of state says. But I kind of want to see an Obama selfie video, like out shooting hoops on the basketball court. That's like, arrest me. Like, here I am. I'm walking free. I'm walking free. There's some cops over there. Nobody's checking. No, nobody's, you know, asking me for my papers yet. Where are you at, Donald? I'd like to see a little bit. I'd like to see Obama from the, the origin story of our nightmare, which was Obama at the correspondence dinner attacking Trump. Why don't, why doesn't he do that? I know that's beneath the office of the presidency.
- [19:04]
JVL
It's really. But our norms and institutions are so important, Tim. We've got, we've got to really protect them.
- [19:12]
Sarah Longwell
Before you move on. So I want to talk. I need to go back to the January six thing about why this is different. And I've got. I've got two things. One is the reason that this is different, and I cannot stress this enough, is that the call is coming from inside the house. Every other thing that happened, people saw something from their side, and then they saw the media and the Democrats as the other side. The people who have been agitating for the Epstein files are the people who voted for Trump and they voted for him not because of Epstein per se, but because of the radical transparency that Donald Trump provided. One of the things in the focus groups that did annoy these people.
- [19:55]
Tim Miller
I'm sorry, could you put a finer. The radical transparency that Trump provided on what that.
- [20:00]
Sarah Longwell
Sorry. That Trump. I apologize. Promised. Sorry, I didn't mean provided. One of the things the people in this group were annoyed about was Donald Trump saying he didn't. Him yelling at the MAGA people saying he didn't want their support. Now, again, these people are always Trump, but there's a lot of people who are not always Trump who that thing is going to be an even greater annoyance for them. But here's the thing that Obama. And it's. And it's what Tim laid out a bunch of ways in which people shifted their perspectives on January 6th. The number one thing I heard on January 6th, about January 6th, that provided the intellectual and emotional cover for Republicans was the what about? The Black Lives Matter protests, Right? That was the emotional dodge. And Obama is meant to be a what about. Right? Because Trump needs what abouts. This is how he has managed every single crisis. It's why he brought Bill Clinton's accusers to the debate after he said the stuff about the grab them by the, you know, what stuff? Access Hollywood tape, right? He always gets a what about. And that's where his voters go. And so he's trying to do that. And I think because they're moving quickly to try to manage this crisis, they've made a mistake that Matt Walsh from the Daily Wire. Tim and I talked about this a little bit yesterday, laid out very clearly, which is okay, if this is an explosive piece of information. And I believe it is I being Matt Walsh that I want to see Obama in handcuffs. And so now they've got a double problem. They've got to both release the Epstein files or have Ghislaine testify. I keep getting yelled at for not pronouncing her name right. I'm sorry, guys. I'm not going to spend a lot of time figuring out how to get a sex trafficker's name right. Like, she's not due this, like, respect of me is.
- [21:52]
Tim Miller
Lane is fine, whatever.
- [21:53]
Sarah Longwell
Just Lane Maxwell. Like, is she going to testify in front of Congress now? Did you. I mean, listen, Donald Trump is so scared, they sent Congress home. We haven't even talked about this yet. Congress isn't staying in session to avoid this. And it's not because they're getting pressure from the lamestream media and the Democrats. It's because they've got members of their own House committee who have pushed this, who now have people who follow them who are demanding answers. And so they're demanding answers. And so they don't want to vote no. Disband, run away. That's right. They don't want to vote no.
- [22:30]
JVL
Yeah. Is that. Is this a good idea by Johnson or not? I can't, like, I go back and forth on it between, like, Streisand effect versus. Actually, it's pretty cagey. Like, just send people home.
- [22:43]
Tim Miller
They don't have a lot of good options.
- [22:45]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [22:45]
Tim Miller
I don't think it's a horrible idea to send people home and kind of see how things go in five weeks. And in the Trump world, like, think about what was happening five weeks ago. You know, you go back and like, look at a Washington Post war with me.
- [22:57]
JVL
Right.
- [22:58]
Tim Miller
Yeah. No, I think before that, then you're just like, whoa, I forgot about that. You know, I was. Whatever. The latest tariff fight with. With whoever. And the German chancellor was in the White House getting embarrassed. And so who knows what's happening in five weeks. That's not a terrible idea. I do kind of wonder why the. They can't really seem to coordinate this very well. Like, can't they just do a little wink, wink, nod, nod thing where they're like, sure, we'll pass a. Pass a bill that says that, you know, that calls upon DOJ to issue a formal review and release the appropriate documents once the witnesses have been productive and there's insurance that no innocent people are, you know, and then they're like, okay, yes. And Pam Bondi's like, I've assigned this to, you know, some guy, one of the eight remaining staffers at the Department of Justice, and they're going to look at it and, you know, we'll report back at Christmas. I, like, I don't, to me, like, that feels like the thing to do, like, let your guys vote yes and see what. And then let them put out some fake report like Bill Barr did about Russia. Russia. Like, I don't understand why they don't do that.
- [24:08]
JVL
Yeah, that, that's one out. Another is getting Ghislaine and having her testify. Right. Which is.
- [24:18]
Tim Miller
Here's why they're cutting some deal with her. Yeah. Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump, like, waved his stubby, tiny little finger at Jeffrey and said, you're not ever allowed in Mar A Lago if you're going to touch underage girls or whatever, you know.
- [24:32]
JVL
Yeah. I wrote the note myself and I put Donald Trump's signature on it because he refused to do that. But it was so important to Jeffrey that Donald be part of that because he looked up to Mr. Trump so bigly. Yeah, right.
- [24:47]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, what, you know, maybe every single one of those things extends the story. And I don't know if you guys read Lauren Egan's piece or, like, she and I did a video about it, but I, I, I do think that as a 2026 messaging element, Epstein really works. Donald Trump protects his elite friends, doesn't let you see it the same way. He's giving them massive tax cuts while he's cutting your Medicaid. Like, this thing, this dog hunts, and it works together. And so I would go strong offense on this. Not. And the reason that Trump doesn't want to extend it is because if there's a report or she's going to testify in front of Congress, every reporter is focused then on what other information they can get about this. And you know what he knows, he knows there's more information out there, even if it's not in the actual files. It's in the world. Like, there are people who are not dead yet who know stuff about how he partied in the early days. You know, I just, my guys were pulling, talking about Barry and they were pulling the, some of his old stuff with Howard Stern. And, like, the quotes back then when everyone was just like, har harring about, it was like, Ivanka just made me promise when she was 17, just made me promise not to date anybody younger than her. And he's talking to Stern and he's.
- [26:18]
Tim Miller
Saying, you know, he broke that promise, by the way, just as a quick side I mean, he didn't, he didn't date anybody younger than Ivanka when she was 17, but he went on to date someone younger than Avant Ivanka. So.
- [26:30]
Sarah Longwell
Well, he was saying he made this crack. He was like, as she gets older, that's getting harder to do. And his only, his only line is, he's like, well, I wouldn't, he said something like, there's no limit to how young I would go. He's like, except I wouldn't do a 12 year old like that Mark Foley guy. Like, it was during the Mark Foley scandal, which I don't think that per. The page wasn't 12, but the page was quite young. And I'm, I do remember that scandal is, uh. And so I just. This is why he doesn't want this. There is lots of stuff in this vein out there about him. And if everybody's talking about what a scumbag he was in his 40s and 50s, which is limitless, they are not talking about the stuff he wants to talk about.
- [27:12]
Tim Miller
The, just one other thing on this, about why I think the dog hunts and the Lauren Egan thing. And again, I don't want to be Pollyanna about this. This is not like, oh my God, the Democrats are going to win 80 seats because of this and the Texas Senate like all that. But I just as a, as a tool for achieving some things that the Democrats needed help with that they were failing to do themselves. Like, this really works, for starters. Reaching people who don't want to read their white papers about health care. It's a major problem for Democrats in the last few election cycles. They're not reaching people with anything that, you know, don't read newspapers. Like, they're struggling to reach people that don't read newspapers. They, this helps. This is something people can talk about and understand. And it's not, it's not like the Democrats are the heroes in this case, but at least it's a, it's a good issue for them for reaching people. That's negative for Trump. And one of the things we've talked about a lot on this pod that's a really big pickle is like breaking up the crank alignment, you know, and the fact that if all of the cranks in the country vote for one candidate, that's bad sign for us non cranks. Like, we need a few cranks on our side. We need a few conspiracy theorists. They have the majority. The tabloid readers have the majority in the country. And so, you know, prying a few back is, is important, but it's Hard to do because you can't really tell the Democrats. Like, find a couple conspiracy theories of your own that might appeal to the Maha crowd. And this is sort of like one.
- [28:39]
JVL
That chemtrails are real and they're causing climate change.
- [28:42]
Tim Miller
Yeah, right, exactly.
- [28:44]
JVL
Marry the things that you care about to crazy things.
- [28:46]
Tim Miller
I mean, I asked Chris Murphy if he thought Epstein killed himself yesterday and he couldn't answer. He wouldn't answer. He was like, I don't know. He paused. It was the longest pause of the, of the episode. He paused for like, like about as long as Peter Thiel paused. When Ross Douthad asked him if humans should continue to exist. He paused for 30 seconds and he was like, you know, I don't know. I'm like, that's great. I don't know is a great answer. There are a lot of people out there that don't know. Let's, let's, let's bring those folks into the fold because I also don't know.
- [29:13]
Sarah Longwell
But can we also just again, distinguishing the audiences, like the red pilled people who care about Epstein, like Theo Vaughn doesn't know what the Steele dossier was like. They're not, they weren't following this stuff back in the day. This is where this group that I was taught that we were listening to made a lot of sense to me. They did remember the Steele dossier. These are just like old white people who were in on Trump and they like remember all the Russia stuff and like that is deep for them. Whereas there's a whole new generation of people that are came to Trump for like the new age conspiracy, like the Epstein stuff, the free speech, radical transparency, Elon terminally online. That's different. Those are different segments of this conversation.
- [29:59]
JVL
All right, are we done with Epstein? Can we move on? Never.
- [30:02]
Sarah Longwell
Never.
- [30:04]
Tim Miller
I watched five and a half hours of Epstein documentary material last weekend. So I can go as long as you need, I guess, is my point. If you want, you want to start.
- [30:13]
Sarah Longwell
I could do the whole show on Epstein.
- [30:14]
Tim Miller
You want to start talking about what Jeffrey was up to on Little St. Jeff's island in 1999? I can do that, but whatever, we can move on.
- [30:24]
Sarah Longwell
Can we show. Oh, no, you're going to do an ad. Wait. Okay, sorry. And another thing, I just want to. Marco Rubio. This whole thing about Obama. I just want to say one thing about Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio in 2018. The intelligence community's assessment of 2016 is accurate. It's 100% accurate. The Russians interfered in our election, so he's also got a Marco Rubio problem in his little Obama assessment. Now you can do your ad.
- [30:53]
JVL
You just wave it away the same way you wave away Marco Rubio once saying that it was dangerous to give Trump the nuclear codes. Right? I mean, this is. Again, these things only matter if people are serious. And like, enough of the country is not serious that they don't care. They don't care that it's inconsistent. They don't care. There's a cognitive dissident.
- [31:12]
Tim Miller
But we're winning back the unserious people. Yeah, that's why this is such a good issue. Come on in, unserious people. The water's warm. I'm unserious. I'm not sure if Epstein killed himself. I want to see the three minutes. Show me the three missing minutes. Then we'll talk.
- [31:27]
JVL
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- [33:19]
Tim Miller
Love Wild Alaskans they're so good. They send us so much. So good. What a great sponsor. I'm like buried in frozen fish. I gave out some frozen fish to a neighbor the other day because I got a new package. I hadn't cooked all the first. I have a small family, unlike jbl. You know, we're only cooking for three.
- [33:33]
JVL
But I don't ever give out my wild Alaskan. I will share some sponsor things with other people. The wild Alaskan stuff is all for me.
- [33:40]
Tim Miller
It's really great.
- [33:41]
JVL
All right. Can we talk a little bit more about Medi?
- [33:45]
Tim Miller
Oh, sorry, Maddie. Okay, sure.
- [33:47]
JVL
Can we talk a little bit about Maddie? Tim and I have done one already. Sarah, you and I have not talked about this at all. I really. After listening then to. To Mehdi with you Tim, yesterday, I have, like, a whole bunch more meta thoughts about the platforming debate and algorithms and all that. But I guess I want to. I want to put a quarter in the machine for Sarah on the big picture question of why isn't this the future of, like, TPUSA. Because if you go back to 25 years ago, all of the young conservative groups that you guys were parts of and that I sort of floated around the Young Americas for. For freedom or whatever that was, right? The. You guys know, with all the places. Isi. All those places, right. You'd have found a lot of weirdos who were obsessed with Bill Buckley. You would not have found a single person, like, literally not one who would have said, yes, I am a Catholic integralist, and I would like to have autocracy, and we need to outlaw blasphemy. And also, Franco was good. Have you read Carl Schmidt? You literally couldn't have found a single one of those people. And that seal seems to be broken.
- [35:08]
Sarah Longwell
You could find people adjacent to that.
- [35:11]
JVL
I remember meeting not in the conservative movement. Those people were all, like, out in neo Nazi land.
- [35:16]
Sarah Longwell
Well, not that. Not the whole. I just said adjacent. And I mean, like, there were kids that were, like, you know, there were. They were very Catholic. Masturbation should be illegal. Like, you know, I definitely heard some of that in the. In the. In that.
- [35:32]
Tim Miller
In that category jokes, like, you know what I mean? Like, very common in conservative world is like, you know, finger in the eye jokes, like, we should bring back the gladiators and, like, make the criminals get eaten by lions and you know what I mean? Like, random shit like that. I don't. You know, like, there was. There was offensive jokes were pretty common, but, like, ideology that we need a fat. We need our own Franco, I do think there wasn't a ton of that.
- [36:00]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. So here, here was. My main take, is that these are kids who were in high school or at young. In high school when Trump came on the scene. And I, I thought the most alarming part was the future of young conservatism. Like, I, I agree with you, jv. I'm. I'm saying I, I did hear some, Some wild things, I think, when I was. Because I worked at isi, like, I traveled around talking to the young conservatives and libertarians at these schools, and you would get the traditional Catholics who would say divorce should be illegal or things like that, but that's kind of as far as it went.
- [36:37]
JVL
It's different, right? I mean, no, it's.
- [36:39]
Sarah Longwell
Of course it's different.
- [36:40]
JVL
Categorically different.
- [36:41]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, of course it's different. This is. My point is, like, I do think I, I remember hearing some wild stuff, but it wasn't, it wasn't this. And so 10 years into being raised on Trumpism, and actually, even worse. So I think there's a couple things going on. One, it used to be, you say something like, divorce should be illegal, and that was incendiary enough, like, to push the boundaries, right? Like, you could be a college kid pushing the boundaries of mainstream understanding of things.
- [37:11]
JVL
That's how you were an edge Lord.
- [37:12]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. That's how you were edgy. And now it is like, no, we should probably be fascists in this country. And, like, and I'm happy to identify as a fascist as a way to tweak you, because liberal tears isn't just a slogan. It's a way of life. And I just want to make you freak out, but also to tweak people. Well, well, I, I, Obviously, there was 20 kids there. I, I thought if you watched the whole thing, the kids were all sort of different, but I recognized many of their genres, and one of them was the sort of really stupid. Like, I haven't read anything. I've just grown up in the age of Trump, and, like, I've got money and I hate the left, and my parents raised me this way, and I've watched how Trump behaves. And, like, I wear the red hat as a badge of honor, and I strut around, but I'm also just an idiot, right? Like, then there's the people who are like, no, I have a deep intellectual commitment to how we generate more fascism in America. And, like, those were different people. Like, there was the guy who looked like Guy Fawkes with, like, like, with, like, the, the mustache and the yeah. What? And like I know that kid too. Like that kid used to be at cpac. That kid just had different edgy ideas than the ones he has now. Because to be edgy now you have to be like, Mehdi, I want you deported as we sit here. Which actually wasn't that kid. It was a different kid who was doing that. But like, yeah, I'm calling ICE right now on you.
- [38:39]
JVL
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- [40:58]
Tim Miller
This was what I was gonna talk about. So just one thing on the kind of upping the ante on incendiary stuff. The thing about it that struck me since we've talked jvl, as I've been thinking about it, and the thing that is like pretty alarming is you would think, like I used to have this theory that I would tell people, which is like the rubber band theory, which is like, you know, we're getting to polarized. Each sides are going to the extremes. I'm not trying to equivocate on how much, but like whatever. Each side's getting more and more, but eventually like the rubber band snaps and like something else emerges. Like you see this and whatever, like a Macron emerges in France or whatever. And I watched that and I'm like, that theory might be wrong actually. Or the rubber band might be a lot bigger than I thought. Because now these kids look at Trump. Something that was like, basically not unimaginable, but like preposterous. Like on the extreme, on some of the stuff that he was proposing in that first run. We were like, really? Like, we're gonna ban all Muslims from the country or whatever. Like something that end birthright citizenship. Shit that wasn't even in the debate before, you know, and, and these kids now look at Trump and they gotta get to his whatever, to his right, to his fascist side, whatever you want to call it, like. And so they got to look at Trump and be like, well, you know, if I'm going to be really be incendiary, you got to talk about the ways that Trump hasn't been serious about the project. And in order to do that, I've got to like read some Nazi philosophers, you know, and start talking about whatever, like white national, like full on unapologetic white nationalism and all that. And there is almost this kind of scientific inertia. It's part of the need to fill that space. And that really worries me. I don't think it was unreasonable to think, okay, Trump would come in and then people would be like, whoa, we kind of pushed the envelope on that one. And not we're going to go back to Nikki Haley ism, but we gotta recalibrate. And I don't know, the sign that I got from that and also from the post debate Internet discussion about it, well, you know, these kids are like, okay, whatever, who cares? It's a stupid Nazi. It's like he's got 142,000 x followers and he's doing tweets about how many smells that have 11,000 retweets. And you're like, oh, okay. I mean, it's not everybody. Twitter's in real life, but, like, that's not nothing either. That's just not, like, that's not like one guy in the corner of the conference.
- [43:27]
JVL
You know, I think Twitter has become real life.
- [43:30]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, I, I don't quite think that. But. But I, I do think when people say, like, what is Trumpism? I looked at that and said, like, this is Trumpism, guys. Like, it's not an ideology, but it is this posture of, I am here to do shock jock politics all the time, and I'm going to say insane things. And also, like, I find it fine to say Medi smells. Like, I like. What Trump has done is take people who otherwise would have been embarrassed and shamed to say certain things and instead make it so that it's like a. It's a. It's a, like, generating position. Right. That is, that is Trumpism.
- [44:20]
Tim Miller
So you gain status, but it's also. Yeah, they're not getting spent. I want to take them home and have their dad hit him with a belt.
- [44:26]
JVL
Right. I mean, this is also. I mean, there is. It didn't, it didn't dawn on me till after we taped him. So the, the, the one kid, Connor.
- [44:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [44:35]
JVL
Who was the, like, you know, I. I want so many asks him at one point, well, how, you know, what happens if the dictator kills you and your family. And Conor's response wasn't, the dictator isn't going to kill anybody. We're going to have a benevolent dictator. His response is, he's not going to kill me. Right, Right. I think that's incredibly revealing. They want real deal fascism.
- [45:03]
Tim Miller
Yes.
- [45:04]
JVL
It isn't like they think they do. They think they do science fiction, utopian fascism where they've constructed some alternate version of fascism which can never. You know, they are not like a bunch of the Marxist kids from 1950 who are imagining that, you know, real, real socialism and communism would be a worker's paradise. And, you know, they just couldn't imagine that it would end with gulags and stuff like that. That's not what this is. This is. They want fascism that will then go around and do real fascism. I feel like that's a problem.
- [45:42]
Tim Miller
Why do you. I'm interested. You intrigued me in your intro, though, about how you've had Extended thoughts about the platforming discussion of all that.
- [45:49]
JVL
Yeah. So I think Mehdi made a very good point, which is something I've nibbled around before and I think the three of us have discussed, which is that algorithms represent specific challenges to a society. Because once you have algorithms driving what people see and not, not human decisions on what people see, things move incredibly fast and in ways which can't be controlled. And this is what we, I mean this has been reproduced a hundred times on the Internet where somebody will set up a brand, you know, a researcher will set up a brand new Facebook account and see how many days it takes them to be pushed into like a neo Nazi group. Right. And it's because the algorithms are driving people in that way, because it's profitable. I think it would not be unreasonable for us to consider as a society laws banning algorithmically generated content. I know Sarah's not gonna like that.
- [46:47]
Sarah Longwell
No, no, no. I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm open to this discussion and I'll tell you why. So I was working on something the other day where I was, I was writing about this and I was talking about how in the focus groups we. One of the phenomenon that has come up is people. When you say, where do you get your news? People used to have an answer, but people often don't have answers now. They kind of shrug their shoulders or they introduce a thought all the time with, I don't know where I saw this. Right. And so what's happening is people. And I'm just going to put a finer point on something JVL said. But people used to be news seekers, right? So you would make an affirmative choice to turn on a cable station, to pick up a newspaper, to Turn on the 5:00 because you wanted to get the information. You wanted to see what they were going to say. Younger people today do not get their information that way. It is delivered to them and it comes to them. Not necessarily even because they follow CNN or they follow news things. It's, it could come from the person that they follow who's like their tik tok makeup person or the physical trainer that they follow, whatever, talking about politics or a totally random person and the extent to which, and Elon has taught me a lot about this through the new X algorithm where I don't even, sometimes I will slow down on incendiary things because I'm like, this can't possibly be real. And like then it's just right there. I'm getting all the stuff. I'm Getting all the gross stuff, just hitting me, hitting me, hitting me. And that is what's happening to young people on TikTok. Whatever. Like, even if they stopped because Donald Trump was saying something gross and they watched Donald Trump said say something, they would just get then more Donald Trump information delivered to them. And so we are not in a situation now where people are making any affirmative choices about what they consume. It is being decided for them. And so news seekers versus news receivers. And that means like, people who are more aggressive about putting garbage into the bloodstream are the ones who are achieving narrative dominance.
- [48:58]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I just two things I want to give back to Jubilee. But just on the policy question you put out, jbl, I don't. I actually like, like strict algorithm laws much better than content restriction laws because it takes a little bit again of the human error out of it and potential for bias and backlash. Like, I think that sometimes conservatives have legit complaints about how like whatever the German speech codes, like target just the AFD instead of also targeting the far left people who are terrible too. You know what I mean? Like, anyway, so I think that like just making people choose who they follow is a much more legitimate and kind of in the spirit of free speech type of law. And just for an example, in this. On this Jubilee thing, like to your. Just to put a finer point on what you're. What I was trying. The point I was trying to make, Sarah, about how they get the information from their makeup artist? No, actually, no. They get their information from whoever the craziest person is that they put in their feed. I don't follow any of these little Nazis, but they're all in my feed now because I started engaging with Mehdi and whatever. And so I go into the for you page and it's like I see the little white nationalist that's on the thing posting about his own argument with Mehdi. And it has a ton of engagement, obviously, because people are always talking about this and. And like that's how I found like the guy who said that Medi smells and like the guy who like claimed that he won the debate and had everybody saying that he won even though he like, he totally got dominated. But do people watch the whole thing? No, they just watch that. And so if you're a young person, you're just getting that. You're getting their post debate spin. And I think that is the one thing that gives me a little pause. JBL going back to like the platforming thing. Like if Jubilee asked me to go debate 20 Nazis now knowing what I would have said yes like last week, knowing what we know now. I'm like pretty torn for this reason, right? Because like I would control the narrative dominance in my feed, right? I'd get a lot of positive feedback from it, you know, but I wouldn't have any control over what they all posted afterwards and then what Elon puts either intentionally or via Nazi Grok into the for you page. But then on the other hand, not engaging with it. It's not like that stuff goes away. So I don't know what do you have any thoughts on that? Jbl I think that's a real pickle.
- [51:13]
Sarah Longwell
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- [53:10]
JVL
I think it's a real pickle. I think at the end of the day it probably doesn't, you know, neither, neither side is dispositive. Right. You know, doing it versus not doing it isn't going to change the world. I think it's important to say that this change of like doing away with algorithmic content feeding, I think will never happen because there's simply too much money that is being made by TikTok by Alphabet, which is Google and YouTube by Facebook. This is their, their business model is algorithmic content which keeps people stuck to their devices. I also worry that we may be fighting the last war because the, the next fight is going to be AI generated content, which is, which is, you know, we're not there yet. I mean, we're sort of there yet. And that it has taken over the top of your Google search pages and that people who are using Claude or ChatGPT as search are getting AI generated. But we haven't really seen the tsunami of AI generated content which is going to eat the web itself. And that's, that's just happening. And so like, I don't know how you stop any of this.
- [54:23]
Sarah Longwell
Part of me that feels vaguely optimistic that we're going to go really fast into a place where people are like, this is just trash. Everything's trash. And that there might be a snapback toward like if you. If so. I was talking to an AI guy. I was at a conference where I was speaking and he was speaking after me and he was like, are you, do you worry about the fact that podcasts are soon going to be AI generated? And I was like, I don't actually. And I might. If I was somebody who was just trying to like give people like information.
- [55:00]
Tim Miller
About 15 Minute Morning News.
- [55:02]
Sarah Longwell
That's right. That, that I could see. But more and more, I actually think we are also the future of the way media is going to. Partly because people know how real we are. Right. Like, the more garbage there is, the more people are going to look for things that are real to attach to. I, I don't know exactly how it's going to play out. Like, I agree, like a tsunami.
- [55:25]
Tim Miller
This was Mark Cuban's theory. When I interviewed him, I asked. Yeah, because I, and I, I took the other side in that and I will again. Like, I don't, I'm not sure that's true actually. And I think that there'll be a category of people who want, who crave real and turn to real and stuff. And then I think that there'll be a lot of people who are fed fake slot.
- [55:41]
JVL
I mean my, my view of this is that what we are likely to get is a bifurcation in which we have premium and premium is people who are seeking out human community. And then we'll have the masses who are people who are just happy with the AI slop they're happy with. And where we are positioned like our special sauce really is the community, right. And people, people want to be with each other, with us, doing real things, with real humans. I think that is likely to be a min of what the whole pie looks like in the future. But that's going to be like the economic niche and you know, every, everybody else who just wants the AI slop, which will probably be like 80 of the country will want that. But like what does that then look like for society? What does that look like for news consumption? Like I, you know, and the law won't catch up on this for like 40 years. By which point everything will have changed.
- [56:36]
Tim Miller
Again and it'll look very bad. Luckily, luckily we have human ad reads here on this podcast. Ding ding ding. And I've got a sponsor for you. They're called Zbiotics. I have to tell you about this game changing product I use before a night out with drinks. It's called Pre Alcohol Zebiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough next days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. I'm going to be doing that just this very night because I'm going to go see Friends of the Pod, the Scissor Sisters in concert. And so I might have a couple alcoholic drinks, which I don't usually do on weeknights because I got a podcast in the morning, but I probably will have a couple. And so just in case, I'm going to have my pre alcohol before I go there. Summer's also here, so you're probably out there drinking as well. Celebrating the warm weather unless you're jvl. So before that backyard barbecue or a glass of pinot watching the sunset, don't forget your Zebiotics pre alcohol. Drink one before drinking and wake up feeling great and ready to take on the next day. Go to zebiotics.com nextlevel to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Next Level at checkout. Zebiotics is backed with a 100% money back guarantee, so if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zebiotics.com nextlevel and use code next level at checkout for 15% off.
- [58:09]
JVL
All right, so we're going to eventually get to some interior decorating talk. I guess that's the thing that's happening. But before that, I had wanted to talk a little bit about Jerome Powell. So yesterday, Scott Besant, who's one of the grownups, you'll recall, one of the people who should calm the markets make. Don't worry, don't worry. We got serious people there.
- [58:29]
Tim Miller
Don't pay attention to the Barbie house he lives in. Okay, but just he's a very serious person.
- [58:34]
Sarah Longwell
Does he live in a Barbie?
- [58:36]
Tim Miller
Is he lives in a Barbie? He lives in the Ken Mojo dojo casa house in. But it's a Barbie. It's more. Actually it was the Barbie Dream House, really. I just didn't want to be homophobic. But. So it's a, it's a gay Mojo dojo Castle.
- [58:55]
JVL
Is there a difference? Okay, so he went and said that he really thinks the executive branch should undergo a top to bottom investigation of the Federal Reserve. Okay, settle down. Because, you know, there's been a lot of mission creep and there's a lot of corruption in there and it's time that the president got involved in straightening out the Federal Reserve. This is on the heels of Trump doing his float of, you know, I might fire Jerome Powell and Senator Mike Lee tweeting out to the world that Jerome Powell had been fired, which I guess is again, a thing that you can do as senator and nobody cares about anymore.
- [59:40]
Sarah Longwell
You guys, did you see the actual letter, like the fact? Mike Lee, man, I cannot believe this guy was once considered a serious person. Float of the Supreme Court. The letter, the fake letter, it has a seal that has like fake blurry Latin. It's like Laura Mifum seeing the pictures.
- [60:01]
JVL
With like seven fingers on them. Like that's like an AI tell, you know.
- [60:05]
Sarah Longwell
And both Benny Johnson and Mike Lee were like he's fired Jerome Powell and Charlie Kirk. Yeah.
- [60:12]
JVL
So I don't know, man. Like I, I, I've written about the, the, the Jerome Powell of it all. It is, it does seem very bad.
- [60:24]
Sarah Longwell
No, this whole podcast is just JVL being like, things seem bad, don't.
- [60:29]
Tim Miller
And he has a fire Jerome Powell yet. This could be a stall situation.
- [60:34]
JVL
Count our blessing.
- [60:35]
Tim Miller
Yeah, it could be a stall situation. And I guess I would say that the, it's interesting the like smart econ types that I listen to are like simultaneous, like this is the thing they care about the most. Right. And like, you know, if you listen to like Joe Eisenthal or those guys, they'll be, they'll be like firing Drone Paul is like a worst case scenario type and the potential downstream effects, I don't know if that's actually true or not. Right. Like this could be like one of those other things of things that we thought would be a worst case scenario. And then the market kind of just sort of pretends like it's not that big a deal actually and whatever, somebody else will come in, but I don't know. And then I think that you mentioned JBL was seeing this too. Like some of the other smart econ people are like drownpile should quit to preempt this.
- [61:22]
JVL
Yeah. So this is, this is a thing which is going around, which is, it's not consensus, but this is a thing not from magas or anti antis but from like serious, serious economics people who are like, look, the most important thing is protecting Fed independence. Trump is going to fire him, which will destroy Fed independence. The way to protect the Fed is for Powell to resign. And the people I've heard who are potential replacements are basically serious. They will calm the markets and this way the Fed retains the plausibility of independence. And I think, think this is, this is a very dangerous miscalculation.
- [62:07]
Tim Miller
Yeah, seems like how did that work for Chris Ray?
- [62:10]
Sarah Longwell
And why is that a resignation?
- [62:12]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [62:13]
Sarah Longwell
Why isn't that a worst case? Like, because at that point the Fed is not independent. But pretending like it is, that's not the best case.
- [62:22]
JVL
The best case because the markets can go along with it and pretend that the Fed is independent as well.
- [62:27]
Sarah Longwell
Now I want him to fire away.
- [62:29]
JVL
I think that even if Jerome Powell was fired, there will be an immediate market drop. Then the markets will get used to it the way they get used to everything. Right. They're used to tariffs now over the long term that continues like American decline and it makes the country much less safe for investing it makes the chance of America losing world reserve currency status much more possible. But in the short term, if you have your nose pressed up to the stock chart, I think it'll look basically the same after an initial bump. But it's just another one of these things. They're just like, oh, hey, decline is a choice.
- [63:13]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, but hold on. The reason that it probably wouldn't fall off a cliff is that there's, like, Jerome Powell. There's like a board of Feds over him. Right. And they've been appointed across administrations. There's a handful of them were appointed by Trump, but they're normal. Like, there's still. There's still checks in the system.
- [63:33]
JVL
And people tell themselves, Right. So people tell themselves, oh, so sure, he just fired the chairman, but the rest of the board can really make their own decisions. Like, you know, this new. This new system, which is basically, okay, will arise as a band aid. That's what people will tell themselves in order to not sell off everything they own.
- [63:54]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [63:54]
Tim Miller
20, 29, we'll all go back to normal, you know.
- [63:57]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, maybe. I think firing Powell would really backfire. And I think it's the kind of thing he might do as a distraction from Epstein because he's panicking, is fire Jerome Powell. And I, I absolutely hope Jerome Powell does not resign. Make him fire you, but make him fire you.
- [64:17]
JVL
Soviet era stuff where, you know, Trump initially was like, yeah, I, we. We should get rid of him because he's not lowering interest rates, which, you know what? Like, it's fine, but at least it's an ethos. But now, like, this idea that they're coming up with pretense and pretext of like, well, there's this deep corruption around the renovations of the Fed building. And that's what that is. The kind of thing which, again, it just codes as much more sinister to me because now we're in, like, Stalin era. Ah, well, it turns out that comrade has a daca, which. Which we did not know about. And I don't know, man. Like, again, I don't know what to say, except really bad.
- [65:00]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. But what you want is for. To me, for me, what I want is for the sinister nature to be laid plain. And I think when they can hide behind other things, that worries me more. And so I want him to have to fire Jerome Powell, and I want for people who think that Trump is normal to have to admit that he's not. Yeah. And. And I. The fact that there is, like, some backstop to the damage Trump can do is a good Thing like the Fed board and also. But the idea too, this idea that, like, if somebody else came in, they would automatically cut interest rates. I. You can't take that for sure. Why? Like cutting interest rates?
- [65:39]
Tim Miller
I mean, unless he interviews people and says, I'm only going to nominate you if you, if you are going to cut interest rates.
- [65:45]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, well, guess what happens if he cuts interest rates right now? Probably going to make inflation worse. Inflation worse.
- [65:52]
JVL
Right. I mean, just. If I could just say, and this is why, if, if Trump fires Powell or Powell resigns, either way, Fed independence is over. Yes, it's over. Because whoever, whoever is his replacement can't make a decision on interest rates at the next meeting without that decision being read as being a reaction to Donald Trump's wishes. Right. You can't, he can't decide either to raise them, leave them, or lower them in a way that any, any observer would assume is related to economic data and monetary policy and not related to political pressure.
- [66:36]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, Fed independence is over as long as Trump is president. I mean, obviously feels broken.
- [66:43]
JVL
Well, come back. Does it?
- [66:45]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, not for generations here. I mean, this is my, my grand theory of how we get out of this mess is Trump has to fail spectacularly. This goes back to my. Why does he need to be at 32%? Well, who was the last modern president who left at 32% approval rating? It was George W. Bush. And that leaving at that low ebb basically left the party open to be completely remade. And I think that if Donald Trump is perceived to be a world historical failure, who leaves the party without. Yeah, I know, fingers crossed. But this is why you have to take action. This is why the offense matters. Like, I think that the thing that I can't get people, or I feel like people aren't getting is that they think like, well, you know, Trump's only got three and a half years now and we'll just wait it out or whatever. And it's like, I'm like, no, you have to do, have to make it so that America has rejected this guy by the end of his term. This is why, Epstein, this is why you go hard on the big billionaires, Bill. This is why you push for the fact that Donald Trump is a, is a, is a saver of elites and he's against, to expose him for the liar that he is. And until people get that energy back, or I just, I don't know, I need people to get that energy back, because that is the only way we get out of this, is that then somebody comes in with a mandate for big, for reform. And some of that is reinstituting some of the things, norms and institutions that we had. A lot of it, though, is what you rebuild from what Trump burnt down.
- [68:21]
JVL
Yeah. Expanding the Supreme Court, putting in term limits.
- [68:25]
Sarah Longwell
Not expanding it, but putting in term limits.
- [68:27]
JVL
I'm just trying to make you mad at me, that's all.
- [68:30]
Sarah Longwell
I won't. I won't get mad at you. I love you too much.
- [68:34]
Tim Miller
Trump might be a world historical failure when it comes to his policies, but I'm kind of liking what he's doing to the Oval Office.
- [68:42]
Sarah Longwell
Somebody sent this to me that you said this. And first of all, screw you, dude. Like you're going to listen to the lesbian about decorating advice. I have. Taste is not a. It's not a true thing, actually.
- [68:56]
Tim Miller
I don't know.
- [68:59]
JVL
So, Tim, go ahead. Is it. So I heard you say this with Mehdi, and my question was, are you reacting to decor or to lighting?
- [69:11]
Tim Miller
Because decor and lighting. Lighting is very important in a homosexual house. So lighting is important. So lighting as well. But I am reacting to decorations. And on its face, I did think it was a little trashy, I have to say, but then when I saw the side by side with Biden looking so pallid, and he. And he was like grayscale. And then behind him, you know, the walls were all very gray, washed out.
- [69:37]
JVL
No. No flourishes.
- [69:39]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And I looked at it and I.
- [69:41]
JVL
Was like, no gold leaf.
- [69:42]
Tim Miller
I don't. Yeah, it felt very Scandinavian. It felt kind of sad and, like, wintry. And I thought, you know, maybe the White House needs a little Liberace. Actually, it turns out I didn't know I was going to be for that. But seeing them side by side, I kind of like the gold. I'm kind of digging it.
- [70:04]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. With his bronzer and his gold tie. I mean, this is. It looked like Caesar's palace threw up in there.
- [70:13]
Tim Miller
But I love Caesar's Palace.
- [70:15]
Sarah Longwell
Me, too. That's where the gambling happens. So it's my favorite. But why Liberace in the White House? I understand your Joe Biden. Biden point, although I think that says a little bit more about Joe Biden than the decor. Although, you know, if they were going to Weekend at Bernie's, Joe Biden, I do think they could have done a better job of, like, putting a makeup on him and figuring out how you make his surroundings, make his eyes pop or something. I mean, all they did was put some aviators on and be like, see, he's good to go. They like, gave him some Botox. That was not enough. But, no, I think that Trump's penchant for things that are glitter and gold is. Yeah, he's like a gay cowboy. I don't know. I really do hate his aesthetic. I think it's tacky, like a gold toilet. Why?
- [71:07]
JVL
Saddam's palace was a good lookbook to use for the White House.
- [71:11]
Tim Miller
I said the Uday and Koussi drawing room, I thought was very, very. Was very appealing when we, when we invaded it.
- [71:19]
Sarah Longwell
I thought, yeah, it's a great place to behead your enemies and stone women to death for showing.
- [71:24]
Tim Miller
Love it. If Trump put in some, like, now that you're mentioning Caesar's palace, like, we need some, like, lions, columns, tigers. We need some, like, gold animals to be, like, next to the presidential desk, next to the Resolute desk to make it a little scarier.
- [71:36]
Sarah Longwell
This is ridiculous. I have a. I have a semi substantive question on the office. Did Donald Trump say. Did I hear him say that the Declaration of Independence is being kept in the office? That, that it had been put away for no one to see?
- [71:51]
JVL
In fact, say that.
- [71:52]
Sarah Longwell
Here's my question, having just watched the National Treasure movies with my children. Is it. Is the Declaration of Independence not on display as it has been forever? Archives at the National Archives, where Americans can go see it? Is it now sequestered in the Oval Office where nobody can see it?
- [72:13]
Tim Miller
I mean, it's supposed to be on permanent display in the Archives. I did not, I did not pay that much attention to this particular Trump comment. So, I don't know. It feels like we need, we need our listeners to help us on this. I haven't been to the archives in.
- [72:25]
JVL
A while, and I, I had the. A different thought when he said that, which was. Hold on. A week ago, all of the MAGA types were telling us that, like, the Declaration has a lot of problems baked into it and all this, like, you know, assuming that all men are created equal thing, that's not what we should be really focusing on. Like, the, the whole point of the Confederacy was to try to revise the Declaration principles, and conservatives want to defend that. That's. That's great. All right, before we get out of here, I just want a little tease. On Friday, Sarah, you and I are going to talk about Derek Huffman. Derek Huffman.
- [72:59]
Sarah Longwell
I know this guy.
- [73:00]
Tim Miller
We couldn't get to it.
- [73:02]
JVL
The gentleman who, who left Arizona for Texas because Arizona was too woke and then left Texas for Moscow because Texas was too woke, and then he signed up to join the Red army and had been promised that he would be a welder or a reporter, a war correspondent, and is now very, very sad that he is being sent to do actual fighting. And I have so many questions for you, Sarah, and I'm really looking forward to an excellent discussion that the two of us are going to have on the secret show.
- [73:35]
Tim Miller
I can't wait to listen to it.
- [73:37]
JVL
Okay, guys, good show. Long show.
- [73:43]
Tim Miller
I'm not going to Russia. I'm staying here.
- [73:45]
JVL
Did I break you, Sarah?
- [73:47]
Sarah Longwell
No. You just made me not look forward to the secret pod because you're just doing stove touching. But that's fine. Yes, whatever. I'm not going to get into it right now. I will save it for the show. I'll save it for Friday show.
- [73:58]
JVL
Good luck, America.