Trump's Dictator Erotica

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Trump's Dictator Erotica" – The Next Level by The Bulwark

Introduction

In the May 15, 2025 episode of The Next Level podcast, hosts Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, and Jonathan V. Last delve deep into the alarming intertwining of Donald Trump's political maneuvers with global autocrats, the internal fractures within the Republican Party, and the broader implications for American democracy. This episode, aptly titled "Trump's Dictator Erotica," unpacks the multifaceted challenges facing the U.S. political landscape, drawing on recent events, voter sentiments, and strategic analyses.

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1. Trump's Middle East Engagement and Corruption

The episode kicks off with a critical examination of Donald Trump's ongoing "Middle East grift tour," highlighting his recent dealings with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia. Sarah Longwell emphasizes the staggering personal enrichment Trump and his family have accrued from these interactions:

Sarah Longwell [06:02]: "This is a Trump enrichment tour, a Trump family enrichment tour. And it ranges from the cutter plane, right? ... it is an astonishing level of corruption."

Tim Miller underscores the severity of this corruption, critiquing the U.S. administration's willingness to engage in quid pro quo relationships with authoritarian regimes:

Tim Miller [07:55]: "It's unbelievable that the United States should let our president and White House just like, take bribes from random Islamist petro-fascists. ... giving and taking bribes with Islamic fascists is actually good and it's actually smart."

The hosts argue that Trump's approach undermines America's moral authority globally, prioritizing personal gain over democratic values:

Sarah Longwell [14:57]: "Americanly, if you speak out against the regime, you get the bonesaw. And Trump is basically this."

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2. Republican Party Internal Struggles

Transitioning to domestic politics, the conversation shifts to the Republican Party's internal conflicts, particularly concerning fiscal policies like the State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions. Tim Miller expresses frustration with moderate Republicans prioritizing narrow tax interests over broader national concerns:

Tim Miller [35:36]: "...a group of 20 moderate House Republicans ... are drawing their line in the sand on the SALT deduction."

Sarah Longwell critiques this stance as "rent-seeking" behavior that ultimately harms the party's integrity and effectiveness:

Sarah Longwell [46:55]: "...it's the responsible thing to do. Why do it? They don't even seem like they care about doing the responsible thing anymore."

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3. Analysis of Senate Races: Don Bacon, Ken Paxton, John Cornyn

The discussion intensifies with a focus on key Senate races, particularly those involving Republicans like Don Bacon and Ken Paxton. JVL points out the strategic implications of these races for the broader Republican agenda:

JVL [50:37]: "She's really like Nancy Maced the whole thing, right?"

Tim Miller laments the lack of substantial differences between moderate Republicans and more radical elements, questioning the viability of certain candidates:

Tim Miller [58:03]: "John Cornyn is a piece of shit. He has not done anything that was of any use, so why keep him?"

Sarah Longwell highlights the diminishing influence of "normie" Republicans who previously could act as a moderating force within the party:

Sarah Longwell [52:14]: "...the demonstrated impact of normie Republicans has only been to give people a sense of safety where there is none."

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4. Joe Biden's Presidency and Its Implications

A significant portion of the episode critiques President Joe Biden's administration, particularly focusing on his age and the perceived mishandling of his campaign and policy decisions. Sarah Longwell references revelations from Jake Tapper's book, which shed light on internal communications and decisions during Biden's campaign:

Sarah Longwell [74:24]: "The idea that democracy is a thing, but it's kind of polarized along party lines... The cascading level of bad decisions there, including picking a vice president they clearly didn't have confidence in."

Tim Miller echoes concerns about Biden's leadership, emphasizing the long-term damage to American democracy:

Tim Miller [77:21]: "History is confused. Huge ramifications."

JVL adds to the critique by pointing out systemic failures within institutions that allowed questionable candidates to ascend:

JVL [63:07]: "Every institution failed. I think the Supreme Court failed in allowing him to be on the ballot."

Sarah Longwell calls for a re-evaluation of Democratic strategies, urging the party to address internal failings and to adopt more honest communication with voters:

Sarah Longwell [81:27]: "Joe Biden was obviously too old to run and he shouldn't have done that... the obsession with his age while letting Trump skate on all of his project 2025 autocratic stuff is why."

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5. Voter Sentiment and Democratic Challenges

The hosts delve into the complexities of voter sentiments, particularly among Democratic voters struggling with disillusionment and distrust in their own leadership. Sarah Longwell highlights how Trump's actions have polarized perceptions of democracy:

Sarah Longwell [73:30]: "They believe Joe Biden and his White House lied to them. They believe they were gaslit and lied to."

Tim Miller discusses the challenges Democrats face in reconciling base expectations with broader voter concerns, emphasizing the need for strategic communication:

Tim Miller [80:48]: "It's a complicated question."

JVL summarizes the predicament, noting the difficulty Democrats face in balancing aggressive stances with honest discourse:

JVL [81:11]: "The Fight response is like being brutally honest and in your face about the truth. And I think that's going to be the problem that a lot of Democrats have with this."

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Conclusion

"Trump's Dictator Erotica" presents a sobering analysis of the current U.S. political climate, highlighting the deep-seated issues within both major parties and the broader implications for democracy. The hosts articulate a clear concern over the normalization of corruption, the fracturing of the Republican Party, and the internal struggles within the Democratic Party to effectively counteract these challenges. As the episode concludes, the sense of urgency and frustration is palpable, underscoring the critical juncture at which American politics finds itself.

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Notable Quotes:

• Sarah Longwell [06:02]: "This is a Trump enrichment tour, a Trump family enrichment tour."

• Tim Miller [07:55]: "...taking bribes from random Islamist petro-fascists... giving and taking bribes with Islamic fascists is actually good."

• Tim Miller [35:36]: "...a group of 20 moderate House Republicans... are drawing their line in the sand on the SALT deduction."

• Sarah Longwell [46:55]: "...it's the responsible thing to do. Why do it?"

• JVL [63:07]: "Every institution failed."

• Sarah Longwell [81:27]: "Joe Biden was obviously too old to run and he shouldn't have done that."

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This episode serves as a critical lens on the intersection of personal ambition, party politics, and democratic integrity, urging listeners to reflect on the paths their leaders are taking and the future trajectory of American governance.

Transcript

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark hit. Like Hit. Subscribe, follow the feed. Come hang with us in. Well, not in Chicago. That show sold out. I still have a couple tickets left for Nashville. If you are in the Nashville area, especially if your name is Taylor Swift, come and hang out at the Bulwark. Go to the bulwark.com events. Yes, okay.

[Tim Miller]

We also. Maybe it's a little teaser, but just for the next level. Gays, if you're. If you're in D.C. for World Pride 6 6, we might have something for you June 6th. So more details to come on next week's Next Level. But if you are a homosexual Next level listener, make sure your Friday night is free. In Washington, D.C. that includes lesbians.

[JVL]

Two thirds of them.

[Tim Miller]

Homosexual. Lesbians are not homosexuals.

[Sarah Longwell]

They are. But sometimes when you say it, it doesn't feel inclusive, Tim.

[Tim Miller]

Well, I mean it to be inclusive. Buys are welcome. Every guest I've had on FY Pod has been bisexual, basically because I think everyone under 25 is bisexual. Transgender folks are welcome.

[Sarah Longwell]

Asexuals, queers, all the members of the LGBTQIA community.

[Tim Miller]

I don't know about every member, but most of the members of the community will be welcome.

[JVL]

What was. What was.

[Tim Miller]

Rick Grenell is not invited.

[JVL]

I feel like there was a moment.

[Tim Miller]

Demisexuals, not invited. Okay. Sorry, jp.

[JVL]

I feel like there was a moment when there was a term that people are identifying that was like, you know, only sexually attracted to people. They have emotional connections.

[Tim Miller]

Demisexuals.

[JVL]

That's right, demisexuals. And I was like, that's just basically humans. Women.

[Tim Miller]

Women.

[JVL]

Right. For the most part. No. Not. I'm sorry, Sarah, I don't want to spoil the surprise for you, but that is not most men. But that does seem to be most of the women I've known in my life. Not all women.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right. Not going to.

[JVL]

Anyway. It's like, oh, we're just going to make that a character class. Cool. Okay. Your favorite. You like that, Tim? Character class? Come on.

[Tim Miller]

I did like that.

[JVL]

A little something for the effort. Your favorite president is in the greater Middle east making deals left and right. He had a sit down with his favorite crown prince. Gave each other a little handy under the robes, maybe. I don't know. Who can say? And is. Is also gonna solve. Let's see, what's he solving? He's solving Gaza while he's there. He is re. Establishing ties with C. Syria. Now that Syria is under new management. He seems to indicate that he is willing to meet with. In Istanbul with. With the Russians and the Ukrainians if. If that's a thing that they are open to doing and maybe make a big, beautiful deal with Iran while he's at it. And also, thank you for the plane. I mean, I just feel like the guy's on a roll and we've. He's basically put to bed the entire Middle east over the course of, like, 12 hours. Is there anything he can't do?

[Sarah Longwell]

Did he solve Israel, Palestine?

[JVL]

I mean, we're. We're putting in the casinos, aren't we? Isn't that what we were doing?

[Tim Miller]

I think there's a little work left to do.

[JVL]

Is that on there? Is that on hold? Because I was told when. When he said that, and some of us lost our minds and said, that's crazy. You can't do that. And also saying things like that. We were told that this was a very serious proposal and that it was very good and important, but now that it's not happening, I guess, oh, it was all just art of the deal, because that's how this game is played.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure. I just. Here's the thing about the Middle east grift tour that he's on. This is the astounding amount of personal enrichment that has come from specifically the Saudis. But the broader Middle east for Trump and his family cannot be overstated. We've actually all done several cuts of takes on this, but I think this is a good show for us to kind of wrap it all together. And I want to start with, because I think people forget because we was sort of lost in the Trump saying the election was stolen and people were sort of hoping he was going to disappear after January 6th. And so the. The Jared Kushner taking 2 billion from the Saudis.

[Tim Miller]

Potatoes compared to.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, no, but that was like, the extent. I think that. And this is where some reporting, some focus on this would be really helpful in this moment. Media, you guys could go check this out. The extensive ties that Trump through his live golf, the Liv golf stuff that he did through Jared Kushner, the fact that the Suns were just over there recently putting together deals like, this is a Trump enrichment tour, a Trump family enrichment tour. And it ranges from the cutter plane, right? Where even Republicans are kind of like, ooh, the optics of this are imperfect. We don't, we don't love it.

[JVL]

The optics are the problem.

[Sarah Longwell]

And so just. It is an. It is a staggering, astonishing level of corruption. And then for him to go to MBS with the. These are murderous dictators, right? This is a prince who, I guess his dad's the king, but it's kind of like a Russian style of government. But these are not. It is one thing, I'm not saying we shouldn't have a diplomatic relationship with the Saudis. Of course we should. That there are reasons we should. We do not have to say that they're the best ever.

[Tim Miller]

Well, before we get to the best ever thing with the Saudis, I just want to put a little pin in that, because that's going to be a tasty morsel for everybody, for all of our listeners in a second. But just to Sarah's point about the kind of global element here, the global corruption grift on its own is unprecedented, extremely alarming, insane. It's unbelievable that the United States should let our president and White House just like, take bribes from random Islamist petro fascists. Like, I think that is extremely bad and worth focusing on in its own. But they are like, wrapping it in a broader ideological project in which they essentially argue that, like, giving and taking bribes with Islamic fascists is actually good and it's actually smart. Right. And it's not just Trump. This is Vance that is pushing this and others. You're seeing this a lot in the MAGA social media world, where they have. They're basically saying they explicitly. They're like, Trump owns the neocons yesterday. And it's like, this is a repudiation of the project that the neocons maybe were the most fervent in support of. But that was broadly a bipartisan project that was we should promote our values overseas. We should look to partner with people that share our values. There's a lot of discussion of liberalizing countries. Bill talked about this a little bit in the morning shots this morning and how that was a good thing. There's also some realist. There's real politik, always true. And not every country is going to share every value and you can maybe negotiate with them. But broadly speaking, our foreign policy should be motivated by trying to nudge people towards our values and build alliances surrounding the values. And they are.

[JVL]

Because that's good for us.

[Tim Miller]

Because it's good for us.

[Sarah Longwell]

But also, this isn't like we're not telling, insisting that they invoke DEI in all their practices. It's just like, hey, man, women are people too, right? Like when you say liberalizing values, it's things like that.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah. Small L like liberal democracy liberalizing. Not like big P, you know, black lives dei, Right? Like, like that. Not like big P, progressive woke ideology. Stuff like small liberal values. Okay, so Trump is there and now the message is that was, that was wrong and dumb. And what we should do instead, like, the relationships instead should be like, more akin to like when a new Mexican leader comes in, you know, into office and says, I'm going to solve the cartel problem by just like buying off all the different cartel leaders. And like, we are just going to run a straight financial racket and maybe the Middle east and all these deep religious wounds and all of these deep ideological disagreements will be resolved if we just throw, throw around enough oil money and enough Trump bucks with the shitcoins and we just build enough, you know, casino golf course resorts and then all of those other tensions, you know, all that inconvenience stuff, the Iranians, you know, going for a nuke and the radical Islamic terrorists and the, and the, you know, deep seated hatred between Israel and, you know, Islamic countries. All of that will just wash away if we have a good deal maker like Donald Trump just throwing around some cash, taking a little bit, taking a little 10% for himself, 30%, 40%. And that is like the case they're making. And it is, it's co. It is to me insane and I think wrong, but it is coherent. And that's, and that's basically what they're arguing. That's the good thing.

[JVL]

I think the project is actually more sophisticated than that, though.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, great.

[JVL]

Because what it is, is this is in line with the Peter Thiel Curtis Yarvin monarchy is the natural state of man. And, you know, like, the reason Trump gets along well with autocrats and royal families is because he wants to be an autocrat and he sees his, his dynastic line as what should be a royal family. And this is.

[Tim Miller]

Right, that's more sophisticated.

[JVL]

Well, no, I mean like, I think.

[Tim Miller]

It'S being a royal family worse than it, than a mob boss. I'm just joking.

[JVL]

I think that's what is on top of the project. It isn't like just like, oh, this is, this is a better way to get stuff done. It's that they, they want all this for themselves. Right?

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, no, I think, for sure. I mean, for sure. I think it's both though. Right. And so like, that is. And so, you know, I, that is. I guess my point is that they are, they're unapologetic about this and I think that they are potentially shamable on certain things. And you've seen Trump like back off of various things. They're shameable on certain things. They're, they are.

[Sarah Longwell]

Plane. When he's asked about the plane, he just goes, what? It's a free plane.

[Tim Miller]

This is my point. They're not shameable on this. They are making the case that the bribes are good, that they're like, it's part of the deal, it's smarter. Instead of just being a do gooder lib who is not street savvy, who doesn't understand the world and who tried this thing where we are going to bring democracy. And those people were stupid and naive. The smart thing to do is have the, is to grovel to the oil fascists and have them give us planes in exchange and have us give them things in exchange for them not fighting amongst themselves. And also on top of that, we hopefully then can move ourselves to a place that looks more like them because that is a more appealing prospect. Right, Than like, than what the Europeans are doing. Very much, much more opulent. Such, you know, the, the top, top, top elites get treated much better. Planes are nicer.

[JVL]

You know what Mohammed bin Salman never has to worry about? What a fucking election.

[Tim Miller]

Election.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right.

[Tim Miller]

Protests.

[JVL]

And that's good. Like from Trump's, from Trump's perspective, that's good.

[Tim Miller]

The protesters or the colleges or the nags on social media telling him he shouldn't say or do. Right, like he doesn't have to worry about any of that.

[JVL]

Yep.

[Tim Miller]

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[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, if you speak out against the regime, you get the bonesaw. And Trump is basically this. And this is where again, diplomacy often puts you in positions where you do have to work with bad people. And that is. That's so. And I think that Americans kind of let Trump off on some of this because people know that, like, I heard this a lot in focus groups when I was beside myself about Donald Trump standing on stage with Vladimir Putin inciting against America's intelligence community. Because that was the first time I really thought, well, Americans aren't going to stand for this. And then I heard a bunch of focus group participants say, well, what's he supposed to do. He's got to talk to other world leaders. And so they didn't, didn't quite get what was happening in terms of what Trump was trading of America, what Trump was giving away, which is basically any moral authority, which is exactly what's happening here.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

So to your point, the admiration and the desire to be like MBS is so great. I don't, I usually on the Daily, don't subject people to Trump's voice. But I have to tell you, I just read the transcript, I don't know about you guys, of the Trump comments about MBS yesterday. I just like, read it on Twitter. I didn't actually listen to it yesterday.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh, I watched it.

[Tim Miller]

Okay, great. So you've already seen this, but I'm sure many listeners are like me. And so I just thought today it would be nice for us to all listen to it together because I have a few additional thoughts too. And we have great partners in the world, but we have none stronger. And nobody likes the gentleman that's right before me. He's your greatest representative. Greatest representative. And if I didn't like him, I'd get out of here so fast. You know that, don't you? He knows me well. I do. I like him a lot. I like him too much. That's why we give so much, you know? Too much. I like you too much. I mean, that is uncomfortable. If somebody was doing that to me at the gay bar, I'd be like, that is a little much. I don't. You're making me uncomfortable. Like, I don't. And it was a very horny, flirting. Trump is like tongue deep in the hole there. Just kind of like licking the taint and kind of working the shaft over and just like doing mind the stepchildren, the whole thing just for you. And he is going to work on MBS there and he got Elon sitting right behind him. And it was quite the, quite the scene, I thought. I don't. I, I was kind of shocked, I guess. And it's what Trump does because Trump does the fake suck up thing, you know, like he does the fake. Oh, this guy over here, he's the greatest. He's the best. But that was. He's smirking and he's. His voice, I don't know, that was sensual.

[Sarah Longwell]

I thought, See, I read it slightly differently, as one could imagine I might from you, which is when he's saying, I get out of here if I didn't like him so much. I think what he's saying is, you murder people. You don't like. And so if I didn't like you and we didn't have such a good relationship, maybe I get the bone saw. But. And so to me, it was acknowledging the murderous dictatorship that this guy runs.

[Tim Miller]

Because he's such a big man, though, because he's such an alpha male with so, so many pheromones. You know, you wouldn't, he's, he's, he's intimidating. That's kind of hot, too.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, this is his thing with Putin, right. Is like he does. And this, I guess I'll take it like the musk of a dictator.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is I, I use the term musk advisedly. Does have a real aphrodisia. Is it an aphrodisiac sort of effect on him? But I like him too much. What other than, and the point here is like we are in business together, me and this guy. Like I will. And this is, this is the dance we do publicly. I'm going to get up and praise you, talk about what a great guy you are. And let me just also say Elon Musk with his weird faces he was making behind him, like what an awkward, strange man he is.

[Tim Miller]

The Elon. There is a separate thing worth talking about. Sorry, go ahead.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, well, no, it is, but it's not just Elon. A bunch of our tech leaders were there. And it goes back to the people who are supporting Trump in his oligarchic agenda all think that they get to be in the king's court, right? They're there to make the kind of money that they think makes them godlike. And so they're all in on this because they're like, there were, there were some tech titans that weren't there because they don't want to be paraded in front of the Saudis to make a deal. But the rest of those guys do. And I just want to those every single one of them is trying to betray America for their own enrichment.

[Tim Miller]

I'm taking over the hosting here. Jbl. This is what I want to hear from you. It's humiliating. This is why I don't, why aren't any MAGA people humiliated by this whole scene? Like we're taking a 13 year old plane from Qatar. Trump is just buttering up mbs. Like put aside that MBS is a bad person. But Trump just has to like, oh.

[JVL]

Remember when Obama bowed slightly.

[Tim Miller]

Bowed, did a little bow.

[JVL]

Obama like inclined at the waist by 8 degrees and the Republican Party lost its fucking mind.

[Tim Miller]

For Fox was wall to wall with that little bow. I know of course I remember that. And you know, and then it's like, we're bringing our richest man, and we're like, paying alms to you and sucking up to you and talking about how great you are. And it's like, aren't. Isn't America supposed to be the great one? Like. Like, aren't we supposed to have. Where's the. Where's the hubris? Where's, like, where's the American jingle? And I know they did make him listen to God Bless the USA or whatever that guy's song is, Lee Greenwood. But, like, I don't know. And the whole thing, we're like, we. We need. Do we. I thought we had all this liquid gold underneath our feet. We had all these tech titans. They're not Saudi inventors. They're fucking Amer. I mean, they've. Some of them are immigrants. We don't like talking about that. But they're Americans at Silicon Valley. It's in the usa. A lot of them moved to Texas. We have all the liquor, gold. Like, why it's humiliating for the country to have to suck up to them. I don't understand it. Doesn't it go against the patriotic whatever you maga ethos?

[Sarah Longwell]

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[JVL]

This is all, this, this is a silly question because why? Of course, because true patriotism is whatever Donald Trump has just said five seconds ago. Right? This is what all. It's a cult. Like I, I just feel like that's the answer to all of these questions. It's a cult. And having a cult allows you to do things that a normal person who's a normal political figure can't do.

[Tim Miller]

And if Barack Obama had borrowed a 13 year old plane from the sponsors of Hamas and then flown down to Saudi and done that program, I mean, I don't know, Hannity might have had to have a heart attack. I mean Hannity would have had an aneurysm. Like there wouldn't be any other. But those are the Fox hosts, right? So they all have a, they're all playing their book. But like regular people, there's not, there's no any like, wow, this is, this is pretty weak.

[Sarah Longwell]

Laura Loomer. Laura Loomer.

[Tim Miller]

Laura Loomer is the one. Laura Loomer who would have known that the one principled MAGA will be Laura Loomer.

[JVL]

So I just, just wrote a little something about Trump's approval numbers, his job approval numbers. There's a Reuters poll posted this morning recording on Wednesday, which was done Monday, Tuesday. So the survey was in the field Monday, Tuesday. Trump job approval up 2 points. So with, with all of the plane stuff and don't tell me that people didn't know about the plane. Like it was the, the biggest news story in America for 72 hours.

[Tim Miller]

He has it been 72 hours. I'm totally losing track of, of the time space continuum, to be honest. Yeah, the Plane like you could have told me always yesterday.

[JVL]

And you know, this is.

[Sarah Longwell]

Why is he up? You want. Do you know why he's up?

[JVL]

Tell me. Stock market, because the economic news is always so good.

[Sarah Longwell]

The economic news has been better.

[JVL]

I mean, better than what?

[Sarah Longwell]

Like better than it was when everybody said recession, Stock market dropping, like, yeah, stock market back up, tariffs are being lifted. Those are the headlines. That's. People are starting to feel better. Easing off a recession.

[JVL]

You think that broke through on Monday and Tuesday? I don't know. I mean Goldman stacks, Goldman Sachs still has it at like 40 chance of recession. I, I don't know. I was under the impression that when, you know, inflation started going back down, well, it didn't matter that inflation was going back down. The prices are still too high and people are like, well my 401k is still down.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, yeah, I wouldn't, you know, 401k is not. 401k is back and I think it's.

[JVL]

Down like 4% probably. It's still down from where it was.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, it's way up from where it was when it was down. And so people are feeling better. And also the only thing is don't overread two points too much. But it does not surprise me that Trump is getting a. I am moving us away from the crisis I created. Little bounce. That would not surprise me.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, me neither. I don't. This is why I don't. What's that? Don't read the Thursday triad.

[JVL]

Sarah's going to love the Thursday.

[Tim Miller]

I'm going to pre. But the Thursday triad as well. Because like on two points, one is it takes time for all this stuff to like seep in. Like there's always a delay, right? We talked about how on the good stuff there was a delay. And I do think this hurt Biden, right? Like that. It's like things start to get better but it takes people a while to kind of come to terms to it and realize it. So I think that there's going to be a delay and we won't really know anything about how people feel about the economy in 2025 till the fall or winter. The other thing is like just as a psychological matter, like asking people five months after they did something to say, boy, that was catastrophically stupid. Like, that's just not how humans work. I wish it was human, how humans worked. There's some humans that work like this. There's some high performing people. But yeah, sure, jvl, I get it. I know, I know you're a unique breed but you know, like, how long does it take for, you know, you to tell your spouse that they were correct in a deep, in a dispute? Not, not immediately, not immediately for most people.

[JVL]

Look at, look at this show where Sarah and I frequently, you know, will, I'll say something and Sarah will be like. And I'll be like, yeah, you know what, you're right. That, that is a thing that happens like once every two weeks on the show.

[Tim Miller]

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[JVL]

Maybe I'd like to make that perfectly clear.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. You know, I mean, maybe JBL is right. Maybe people really want this. Maybe people really want this. I'm not saying your thesis is disproven. I'm just saying that, like, the counter thesis that they don't want this and that they will eventually come to their senses when they experience pain cannot yet be adjudicated fairly on May 14th, I think is all I'm saying.

[Sarah Longwell]

JBL, listen to the. Except it, I know it causes you pain, but if you listen to the focus group podcast, we talk about this a lot where there's a lot of people who are expressing dissatisfactions with certain parts of Trump's agenda. People who are very. And this is where I think simply tariffs being out of the news or tariffs being talked about as being rolled back. Like, I think that's enough to give Trump like a little bit of a bounce. That's not going to matter in the long term. But the thing that you hear from the voters is a. Well, it's still really early. I'm not sure. I'm not, I'm frustrated with grocery prices. They're not coming down. I wanted it to be faster, I wanted it to be better. But like, that's, you know, this bottom's not going to fall out of him with that. People are going to give him some time. So I wouldn't.

[Tim Miller]

Sarah, I have a request for you. Can we, the focus group podcast, I think maybe once a month we gotta just take a veer, you know, and just like do a focus group on severance or on like, what people think about, like the different types of restaurants in their town or something. I mean, I'd like to hear people talk about something other than Donald Trump a little bit. Is that possible? Could we have some bonus content on the focus group podcast that's, you know, a little break?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know.

[Tim Miller]

Did you talk about other things?

[Sarah Longwell]

I guess I could try. I could think about it. I'm sorry, it's painful for you to know what voters are thinking.

[Tim Miller]

But, I mean, I'm gonna, I'm coming back to it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Here's what I'm saying.

[Tim Miller]

I'm coming back to it. I know I will. I'll get there. But I just, you Know, like, let's ramp me up a little bit. Ramp me up. Can we do a Timmy Chalamet focus group for gay pride? And then like, then the next week I'll listen to what voters think about the Qatar airplane. You know, that'd be good for me.

[JVL]

What I don't understand though is Sarah, I would think that listening to these real human beings talk every week, multiple times as you do, that it would be buttressing my case and moving you towards me. Because you hear them.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, I gotta say. So this, this week we're going to talk about J.D. vance and this is almost like some candy for Tim because it gives me, I don't know, listening to voters provides me what I think is unique and genuine insights about certain things. And I'll tell you this, listening to the voters talking about J.D. vance, the Trump voters, it's a stark reminder of the fact that Donald Trump is unique among politicians and that the way that people feel about Trump and the, the, the leeway they give him on a bunch of things is non transferable. And so it's not like the extent to which some voters who are kind of more just like slightly more normie, kind of like J.D. vance, but how a bunch of other voters who might really like Trump hate JD Vance or how people find him to be a regular politician and inauthentic and like Trump just has juice that a lot of these other Republicans don't. And to me it fills me with a kind of not hopefulness about people. Exactly. But it, there's a, a fact in the reason that Republicans don't balk at Trump's third term idea is that they do not have an alternative plan. They don't have another person that they think is a winner or a turnout machine or that has that kind of juice with voters.

[JVL]

What about Nikki Haley though? I mean really, if you think about it, maybe the party just goes back to normal and can get back to those good Reaganite values.

[Tim Miller]

It's an idea.

[Sarah Longwell]

Sure.

[JVL]

All right, we got to move on because this show is going to be five hours. Republicans getting ready on their big beautiful bill Salt deductions. The. The. Which I guess we go from handy's under the robe to actual tax policy, mortgage interest rate deductions. This is wearing under the robe. I mean, I assume it's a jammies. Blue bodysuit jammies.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's what I'd wear.

[Tim Miller]

It's hot though.

[JVL]

Kind of hot.

[Sarah Longwell]

I guess that's true.

[JVL]

All right, Tim, would you like to talk about the what the Republican normies are going to do about their assault problem.

[Tim Miller]

I requested this topic because I saw something yesterday from Jake Sherman that drove me so crazy that I need, I need to talk about it. And we can, we can broaden it out to a broader conversation about the budget and about these fucking cowards Republicans. But like there is a salt caucus now and Mike Lawlor was walking around in a pin like a, like a little like an American flag lapel pin, but a one underneath that said salt on it. One of the other ones, I think it was, young Kim from California was handing out bags of salt to her colleagues. And I just, I looked at this story and I was like, this fills me with a unquenchable rage. Like I have the, like a rage of a thousand sons of these people. And it's just like with everything happening in the world, we had, like we had an insurrection. It's like we had an insurrection. We're on the side of Russia now. We're putting a 30% tax on any product anybody buys from China and a 10% tax on any product anybody buys from anywhere else in the world. Like, like we're maybe going to not listen to the Supreme Court. The rule of law must be dead. I could go through all, like, there are a million things. We've grabbed people off the street and sent them to a fucking foreign gulag and accused them of being gang bangers when it seems like maybe they're just humans that were trying to come and come to the land of milk and honey and live free. And like any of those things could make you upset or any other number of things could make you upset. And yet there's like a group of 20 moderate House Republicans and the thing that has made them upset is that their voters, their upper middle class voters might not get one additional tax deduction. Like they are drawing their line in the sand on the salts deduction. The state and local tax. I understand, you know, you want to do constituent services and your congressmember has to be responsible, but are there not any constituents in these districts that care about the rule of law or that are have a small business that's going to be ruined by the fucking tariffs or, you know, wrote an op ed about Palestine. Like, it just, I'm like, this is it. When you're an old, when you're in your rocking chair many, many years from now, Mike Lawler and your grandkids come to visit you and they say, what did you fight for, you know, in the wars of the 2000s? What did you fight for in the Trump years. Where did you plant your flag? You're going to say Little Oakley. I planted my flag. In defense of the salt deduction, we wanted to ensure that we were able to deduct our state and local taxes from our federal taxes. That's the thing that I care about. Fuck you. I just.

[JVL]

Slow clap.

[Tim Miller]

Give me a break.

[JVL]

That was awesome.

[Tim Miller]

I hate these people.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. I don't want to inject like normal politics into what is a moral creed of which I appreciate, course, agree with. But like the salt deduction thing is about their jobs. And like, this is actually super on brand for Republicans right now, which is 20, 26. They're coming for the Don Bacons, they're coming for the Mike Lawlers. Right? Like these guys are in the frontline seats because they're in more liberal places and, and these, and they have more sort of suburban constituents and they don't either want to lose their jobs in the wave, but they're actually, they're like in a tight spot politically, just like normal politics. They're getting squeezed by Trumpier primary voters and more moderate general election voters. And in a wave election year, they're pretty worried. And somebody like Mike Lawler, that dude clearly wants to be governor of New York. Right. And so that's why, that's what this is about. Like, this is a. And they, I think it's funny, they will buck Trump potentially on things where they think it has like a personal advantage. They will not buck him on anything. That is a bigger picture. Protect the United States. But it is about their jobs.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, let's talk about their jobs though, because I take the point. I understand that for.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm not justifying it.

[Tim Miller]

No, I know you're not just trying. No, let's look at this purely on politics because I actually, I hear your point, but I kind of disagree with it and I want to explore that because I understand that if you have a lot of high, middle to high upper income constituents in New York or California or New Jersey, whichever one of those states JVL might live in, you, you know, you have some people that are concerned about this deduction, right? Like somebody told me yesterday that actually if they just let the tax cuts expire, like middle, like high, upper, high upper middle class people in New York and New Jersey would actually get a tax cut cut because they would get their deduction back.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes, that's right.

[Tim Miller]

So, you know, so, okay, so I get it. I don't, don't get me wrong, I don't, I don't, I don't question that there are some constituents that think about that, and yet those same types of voters, like, do care about others. I know the types of voters that Republicans have been losing across the board and a lot of other places. So I don't. They're engaged. Right? Like, I don't, I don't want to just totally dismiss the fact that suburban voters in San Diego and LA might also have other concerns beyond, like, their narrow tax rate, which they have a concern about. I just, I think that's wrong. Like, I think that, that we've seen the move from a lot of those voters in those districts to the Democrats. Like, part of the reasons these guys are targeted is because Kamala won their district. Right. And so the voters obviously do care about other things besides straight tax cuts. Like, these are more high info voters in a lot of these districts, not all. And then number two, to me, the thing that is a much bigger threat to them than the salt deduction is that the tariffs throw the economy into a recession. Like, if the tariffs throw the economy into a recession or even a slight or even a slowdown, to me, these guys are fucked. They are screwed. If you were Mike Lawler, you are screwed. If there's a big economic downturn and if it looks like Trump is crazy and out of control, we'll go right back to what happened in 2018 and there'll be just a wave that washes out all of these guys. And so to me, if I'm their political consultant, I'm like, no, the thing that you should be fighting on is saying, no, the Congress should get the power of the purse back. What is happening right now is going to hurt the economy. We're going to be a check. I'm going to be a check on Trump. I'd be positioning myself right now to be like, I will be a check on Trump. Not on the other side. I think Trump is great when it comes to DEI or whatever, a stupid cultural thing. I love the name the Gulf of America, but I'm going to be a check on Trump when it comes to your pocketbook on the tariffs. And that might not work, but to me, that has a, that's much more potent than wearing a salt pin.

[JVL]

I, I can only criticize Trump from the Republican Party on stuff that he does not care about. And obviously, Donald Trump doesn't give a, about salt, but he cares a lot about tariffs. Right? And so there, you know, you can fight him on some minor, microscopic piece of a policy that he doesn't understand anyway. What I don't understand from the Republicans perspective is why not do the salt deductions too? It's not like this is the party of fiscal responsibility. Why deny any cover to any Republicans anywhere?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, right.

[JVL]

I mean the reason to not do it is to be like, well, because we gotta pay for all these other taxes. So what? You're not paying for anything. Throw another log on the fire.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Warren Davidson, just to your point, Sarah, I'll set you up for this. Warren Davidson, the guy from Ohio? Congressman. I sent a tweet yesterday. He's like it's kind of crazy that we're debating between one version of the bill that's going to be a $16 trillion debt bomb and the other one's going to be a $20 trillion like that. Just to put a point about. That's the debate that's happening. But sorry, yeah, go ahead.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, actually I take JBL's point like that is. That is well stated. It is weird since they clearly no longer care about deficit reduction. Like the idea of the salt deduction is actually like a piece that is meant to punish states they don't like to some degree. But jvl, it's also because those states have way high taxes. Right? So like.

[Tim Miller]

But they're also contributor. But they're also federal budget contributors.

[Sarah Longwell]

Great, that's true. But I can make a normie Republican case why the salt stuff is fine like that.

[Tim Miller]

Like I don't give a fuck about it either way.

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. Me neither. In a normal world, fine.

[JVL]

You mean. I mean there should be allowing or.

[Sarah Longwell]

There shouldn't should not be like that. That you don't let California, New York, New Jersey.

[Tim Miller]

Funny though, you just said I could make a normie Republican case for not having this altered deduction, but it's the supposed normie Republicans that are the ones that are demanding the salt deduction. Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

That's right. Well that's just rent seeking. Right? That's just their normal rent seeking sort of political stuff. This is like Trump just like lying about the gross. I'm going to lower grocery price. I'm going to end the war in Ukraine and Russia in the day one. Like he just lies about this stuff. They don't actually care about any of it. So it is actually trying to pay for some of the things that they're doing that are debt bombs is like the responsible thing. Why do it? Why? They don't even seem like they care about doing the responsible thing anymore. And $20 trillion though, can I just say, Trump is going to push it's 10 years. A $20 trillion addition is what Republicans are going to do. They're going to push US close to $60 trillion in debt. And the fact that, like, actually it does make sense to me that Republicans would balk on this. This would be an issue that you would think normal Republicans would get invested over. But, like, it's going to be Chip Roy alone and. And they'll probably twist his arm into whatever.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Roy might end up on. It is wild. Like, it is a bigger number. It's a bigger nut total number than the Biden. You know, either of the Biden stimulus is the Obama stimulus, the Trump tax cuts, the Bush tax cuts. It's going to cost more than all of that. Like, what they're proposing at a much worse time. Like, back then there was like, when we're at, you know, not to get nerdy here, but when we're at zirp, you know, you at least have an argument that you've put more debt on. Like you're trying to recover from the economic, you know, recession. Right.

[Sarah Longwell]

Or paying low interest rate was super low.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, we're paying like, we're paying huge interest. Like, we paid 100. I think it was 100 billion on the interest last month on the debt. So it's insane to do it like, it's the biggest debt number and we're doing it at the stupidest time.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yes.

[Tim Miller]

And they're just going to jam it through.

[JVL]

So let me answer my own question, because I think there, there are three reasons why they won't do it. The first is because the salt, why they won't do salt, why they won't do this. They do want to hurt the people who live in blue states.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Like, and if some of their people are collateral damage to that, so what?

[Sarah Longwell]

Two, Michael Lawler's not the best soldier anyway. So screw that guy.

[JVL]

Two, they don't care about losing the House. That's baked in to begin with. They're going to lose the House. But also it doesn't matter because Trump was never going to use the House to pass legislation anyway. Again, his view is monarchical, not executive. He does not. He's not there to pass bills. And third, because at the end of the day, it is better for him to have a Democratic foil in, you know, Hakeem Jeffries or somebody else leading the House than it is for him to be in this position of trying to, like, manage a coalition and stuff like that. And so anything that can make the Republican Party more maga, even if it's at a smaller scale is of benefit to Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

JBL this is a deeply insightful point. Actually, not.

[Tim Miller]

I thought you were going to disagree.

[JVL]

Actually, no, just, just like, deeply insightful point.

[Sarah Longwell]

Jbl yeah, but not that. So the thing, the thing about Trump would love for Democrats to come in and try to impeach him again, because nothing will, like, focus the mind of his people like him getting impeached. And so I agree with that. But the piece I had not thought of or had not clarified in my mind that I think is really deeply correct, is that Trump's not using Congress at all, doesn't care about them, doesn't need them for his agenda, and therefore has no incentive to protect vulnerable Republicans. Like, that's a part of, that's like a piece of normal political brain that actually I haven't turned off. Like, there's just a part of you that thinks, well, of course it's going to matter to the political apparatus that they maintain control of one of the houses of government. That. But then if you, but if you don't have checks and balances anymore anyway, what does he care? They've passed through Mike Lawler. Screw Mike Lawler and Don Bacon. They're out there. Don Bacon's out there, you know, moaning over Ukraine and Lawlers bitching about the salt taxes. I don't care about these guys. Let them go.

[JVL]

Other places that Republicans are losing, we just, you guys don't remember why World of Sports. We turn now to Omaha, not other.

[Tim Miller]

Places, actually, because that's Don Bacon's district.

[JVL]

It is where Democrat John Ewing beat Gene Stothert, who was seeking a Republican seeking a fourth term as the mayor of Omaha. He beat her. He beat her by 13 points and becomes the first black guy to be. Be mayor of Omaha. I don't know how much there is to be made of this. Probably very little, but it's nice.

[Sarah Longwell]

No, please. There's big picture stuff.

[JVL]

Tell me more.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, I got two main things. One is just on Don Bacon. I think Don Bacon, if this is, if these are like the little indices of the kind of correction that is coming. I think Don Bacon, who is in a district, comma, one like, it's basically is the Omaha makes up much of his little thing there. And so he's probably toast. That's like a seat that's gonna go.

[JVL]

Can I, can I interrupt? Ask a question.

[Tim Miller]

I think he's retiring, too. I think he's gonna.

[JVL]

Why wouldn't he party switch?

[Sarah Longwell]

He should party switch. I say this on Twitter all the time.

[JVL]

No, Tim, you're shaking your head.

[Tim Miller]

No, no, I'm shaking my head because I, like, I don't understand. I don't agree.

[JVL]

Because that's the thing that never happens. No moderate Republican becomes a Democrat.

[Tim Miller]

Moderate Democrat. He would win. Maybe he's tired of Congress, but he would win. And there are only a couple of them left. Like, this was a more potent point, like, six years ago, but, like, during the first Trump term. But like, it's him, it's Fitzpatrick, maybe in Pennsylvania. And like, maybe that's it. Honestly, because Lawler's been such an asshole on cnn, the Democrats, I kind of hate him, like, more of his personal, you know, comportment than his policies. So maybe there's one person I'm forgetting. So there's only a couple of them left. But Bacon could, I think, I think he would win for sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, but this is, this is, this is the part of, the bigger point on this is that Susan Collins. I'm going to extrapolate out to the Senate. Yeah, right. There's no path for Democrats on the Senate unless they, like, get some of these moderate Republicans. And I, for a long time have been a defender of needing the moderate Republicans in there. But to Tim's point about it being a new moment, like, what good is Susan Collins? Like, what good is Mike Lawlor? What good even is Don Bacon? Like, he's, It's. He is. Right. He has been emphatic on a number of points. He's one of the few. He's a very lonely voice. And the Republican side. But, like, why is he better than just having a normie Dem from Omaha there? Like, I can't make that case in the first term.

[Tim Miller]

The case was from a center right point of view. Right? Like, the case was, okay, you want to rebuild the party, you want to have these people in there. Trump loses, Biden wins. Be better to have Don Bacon's in there than have crazy, right? Like that. Like, that was the case, which was, I think, like a fine, you know, like, if you're a DSA socialist, you're not going to agree with that case. But, like, if you're a, if you're a free market center right Republican, like, that was sensible. Right. Like, it makes sense you'd want to have Don Bacon in there instead of a Democrat so that when this Trump thing blows over, you know, we have a bulwark, so to speak, of, like, of members to build from. But, like, that's, I mean, that's gone. That's dead and gone. So I don't know what the case is now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I don't. I don't see a case. The second point I just want to make on this is that. That I think you could extrapolate nationally is this candidate took the bathroom stuff head on and was just like, why are you such a creepy bathroom stalker? And that was good. Like, that worked, like. And I'm not saying took it head on, like, made it, you know, such a central issue, but because she was making it such a central issue, she, this. She like, Nancy maced the whole thing, right? Like, I'm gonna stand outside the bathroom and be like, why do you let everybody in here? And he was like, I don't know, man, you're freaking me out. And, like, with the memes were like, her under the bathroom stall door. And I feel like, hey, why are Republicans being creepy bathroom stalkers is a good retort to the obsession with the bathroom stuff.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, I was just like, imagining a. It's probably a bad idea. I'm just doing this live. I was like, managing. Imagining like a bro YouTube ad. You could run about, like, the benefits of unisex stalls. You know, it's like, you got a lot of things going for you here. You can take a young lady in here, have a little private time. You could do a little. You can do some.

[JVL]

Because I hear that with you. I hear that's what women love. They want.

[Tim Miller]

No, no, I'm targeting the men. Targeting the men. I'm targeting the Theo Vaughn podcast listeners. They should like the fact that we've moved to unisex bathrooms. You can do some coke in there if you want to. You can. Whatever. Isn't this better than.

[JVL]

Tim, I will explain some things to.

[Sarah Longwell]

You off air and also, also, well, here. I mean, first of all, I do think part of infrastructure in this country should be about building bathrooms that have doors that go down to the ground.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like, why can't we just be a country? Other countries have this, like, what are we, farmers? Yeah. Like plastic marble things with these big gaps in them. Nobody likes that. We. Privacy's good. So, like, you know, let's just make all the bathrooms have super private stalls.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, yeah, same.

[JVL]

You want to know. You want to know the case against single co ed bathrooms? Tim, you gotta preserve the mystery. Gotta preserve the mystery.

[Tim Miller]

I'm saying co ed. I'm like, I'm saying, have you not been to a fucking place that has unisex bathroom now? Like, it's like, you know.

[JVL]

Oh, yeah, yeah. It's in a unisex bath. I thought you were talking about. I didn't, I'm sorry, I thought, I didn't mean that.

[Tim Miller]

I didn't mean the women would be pooping right next to each other. That's not what I'm calling for.

[JVL]

That's what I thought you were going.

[Sarah Longwell]

To a conversation that I hate. All right, can we wait?

[JVL]

Can we.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hold on.

[Tim Miller]

You have one more point you got to make on it now, though.

[Sarah Longwell]

And another thing, which is I was in one of these places, I was in a more liberal space recently, and they had two bathrooms. And I did get confused. There were two bathrooms, and I didn't. I misunderstood what it was doing. It was like they were both all gender, but one was all gender with urinals and the other one was just all gender. And I just saw the whatever and I went to the one that apparently that had urinals in it. I thought they just both. It was like, for everybody. And I was like, oh, these libs, you know, with their. Everybody. And while I was in there going to the bathroom, a guy walked in and started peeing at the urinal. And I didn't know what to do. Like, I was like, I, like, I got up and like, raced. I was afraid of violating his privacy. He was peeing in a urinal, and so I, like, raced by him and like, you know, quick rinse on the hands, trying to get out of there. I didn't want him to, like, I didn't want him to feel embarrassed because.

[Tim Miller]

That'S why we have Trump. That moment right there.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I don't want those bathrooms.

[JVL]

I have a friend who went to college where they were single sex bathrooms. And I would just say both of the things happened, like a. Assignations took place, but be all the mystery was gone because, like, you know, the kids are just pooping next to each other.

[Tim Miller]

Don't want that. Definitely don't want that.

[JVL]

All right. But on the same theme, roughly, we go to where John Cornyn, who is nearly the Senate majority leader, is basically going to get schlonged by Ken Paxton. This is another. Well, this is a very Susan Collins question, right? What is the. Is it better to have John Cornyn, who will vote with Trump 100% of the time, but who isn't insane and isn't corrupt and like, won't commit crimes himself? Or is it better to have Ken Paxton, who has, I guess, like a 2% chance of losing the seat, but also will do criming and vote with Trump 100 of the time?

[Sarah Longwell]

I think he has more than a 2%. I'm not saying it's super high, but I. There's more than a 2% chance that Ken Paxton could lose. It's. I'm not. It's. But like, it's like 15%.

[Tim Miller]

Even higher.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Like, you'd go up to 25. 30.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, 25. I. He'd be the favorite for sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

I don't. I mean, I don't. I think he'd be more like, you know, I was gonna make an. I was gonna make an NBA analogy. Like, it wouldn't be like. It'd be more like Thunder Nuggets, not.

[Sarah Longwell]

Thunder Grizzlies, you know, So I don't understand that analogy.

[JVL]

But.

[Sarah Longwell]

But what I do understand is that I would have made, again, and it is like a Susan Collins question. I would have really made the argument five years ago that it was important to have sort of Normie Cornyn over Ken Paxton. I don't think that anymore, in large part not because I have changed, but simply because the demonstrated impact of Normie Republicans has only been to give people a sense of safety where there is none, because none of them actually act. If they had done anything to demonstrate that there was a material difference between a Ken Paxton and a John Cornyn, I might believe that. And maybe behind the scenes, they're temperamentally different, but at this point, I. John Cornyn, did you see the thing that he did where he put out a picture of him reading Art of the Deal? And I was just like, you're a grown ass man. I've met you in person. You're enormous. And you're just. You're just kowtowing to this. Like, forget John Cornyn. Let them have the real corrupt MAGA candidate that they want who was literally impeached by his own party for being so corrupt, and then eventually, like, acquitted and let back in. Let's. Let's let him. Let them have. I am here. I am very much arrived at. Like, let them get what they want.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Tim Miller]

John Cornyn is a piece of shit. He has not done anything that was of any use, so why keep him? And it was kind of like I had this argument with Karl Rove when we were on the panel in California where he was making the case for Tillis. And I was like, what exactly is Tillis is doing that is different from what Mark Robinson is doing? And I guess you could. Hypothetically, the only case I could listen to on this, but then the person making the case would have to have a Tim Miller, Bill Kristol level of tds. But conceivably I could make that. You could argue to me that, like, if Donald Trump does try to run for a third term, like, Thom Tillis is more likely to say no to that than Mark Robinson or John Cornyn, than Ken Paxton on the margins. And so it'd be better to have him around. And like, I don't, I've never heard anybody make that argument. That is an argument that could be made, I would say. But like, short of that, these guys haven't done anything. Like, they didn't, I mean, John Cornyn didn't vote to convict Trump on the first time. So what's the point of having him? He's doing nothing. He sucks. The interesting thing to me is on the Democratic side of this, our colleague Lauren Egan wrote an article that some people on Blue sky did not like about how the Democrats are not having serious conversations internally about winning some of these seats and that. And I just, I think this is so important and I just want to just sit on it for one second because I haven't had a chance to talk about it on my part, which is like, this is unfair. So, like, progressive listeners who are mad about this, like, it's unfair that the way that the Senate is, makes our situation such as this. But for the Democrats to win the Senate and certainly for the Democrats to win the Senate and have any sort of breathing room on votes to get anything passed, they have to win in places like Texas, like North Carolina is the closest one, but like beyond that, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, like, they have to win in those places. Like, like the math just doesn't work. Even if they sweep all the swing states, sweep all the, the blue states. I wasn't planning on talking about this. I don't have the number in handy, but I think it's like 52 senators because, like, you could pick up, you know, one in Pennsylvania, one in a couple of. It might even be only 50. I. So there's no path to like a real durable majority with, for the Democrats, that's not true for the Republicans. The Republicans could get up to 60 if they just started winning purple states. Right? If the Republicans just started actually winning the Senate in seats in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Arizona, they've been losing. They could get up to a 60 vote majority with no filibuster, no nothing where they can do whatever they want. And so I saw some of you on Blue sky going after Lauren and Chris Hayes came into the defense of the article and some others and saying to them, like, well, why do the Democrats have to do this. Why doesn't everybody say the Republicans have to moderate? And my point is. Well, yeah, we at the Bulwark said the Republicans should moderate all the time. They just don't listen to us. But B, the reason why it's imperative for the Democrats to think about how they can win in states like Texas without running just generic candidates is that in order to do anything, they need to win. If Ken Paxton gets nominated, it's actually quite important that the Democrats nominate someone that moves their chance up from 15 or 25% or whatever to 40%. And that person. And I don't exactly.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's not beto. Right.

[Tim Miller]

Matthew McConaughey, it's. Yeah. Right. And so anyway, I'm not saying. I know I'm not saying that person is Liz Cheney or like, that person has to be my exact person. There are a lot of different ways to skin the cat. Like, as far as being heterodox, like, it doesn't have to be my way. Exactly. I think that being. Being Liz Cheney is probably a better bet than just being generic Democrat. But even still, I think there are probably better bets than Liz Cheney for sure, as far as doing well in those. What's that? What's the. In the southwest part of the state, in the Valley where there's a lot of Hispanic voters. Right. Like, so there are a lot of.

[Sarah Longwell]

Like a Ruben Gallego maybe.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah. Like even, probably even a little bit more heterodox than Ruben Gallego. Right. Like, so, anyway, my point is that, like, that is a very, it's a very important conversation that, that needs to be happening that isn't that Lauren was writing about. And, and to me, I think that's actually more important than the Corn and Paxton race.

[JVL]

All right. Well, I just been. Before we leave this, I would like to say that there is, and I hate myself for saying this, there is an opportunity cost aspect to having Paxton over Cornyn. Right. So if Cordon is in the Senate, he might vote the same way on things that come before him that Ken Paxton would, but he might not push for things that haven't happened in ways that a Ken Paxton would.

[Sarah Longwell]

You know, that's a, that's a totally sane take. It is. But I think that the, after now that we've sort of, I came around to this. So, you know, now I have this, the, the zealotry of a convert. But I think that the normal. Ish people or people who code normal who go along with Trump ultimately do more damage in the long term to normalize what's happening and bring a set of Republicans along that otherwise might not be there when you've got a Ken Paxton. Like, I think the maga, that's a real cost. It is. And I just think long term, it has to be the thing that it is. And the more you cover it up and give people the sense of like, no, no, responsible people are still in there doing something, I think that's a net negative.

[JVL]

No, that's. I agree. All right, we got to wrap this up because I got to go write a bombshell newsletter or breaking news that people are going to love it. But before that, some more Joe Biden stuff. Who would like to kick Joe Biden first?

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't want to arm wrestle Tim for it, but I'm. My rating.

[Tim Miller]

Yeah, please go. I kicked. I'll just say I kicked Joe Biden on the Breaking Points podcast. I thought it was a more useful use of my time. I did that. It's like this HorseShoe podcast of MAGA and. And Bernie people. I'm trying to, you know, bring some of their listeners over to the centrist, establishment, neoliberal cause by showing up to neo to discuss and sound like a normal person. So I already did this with them, and I don't. And I just. The whole thing is just enraging. And the whole thing is enraging to me. And, like, I think it's great, though. I guess the one other thing I'll say is my friend Peter Hamby put out a video of him asking Joe Biden about his age in 2020. You know, just gets kind of pushed back about this notion that the media didn't ask about it, media didn't act perfectly. Nobody acted perfectly. But, like, there is like this fake history where, like, nobody asked Joe Biden. Joe Biden's age never came up. And you remember when our Reddit page, like some of the listeners or some of the listeners created a thing that changed the logos of all of our podcasts to Joe Biden is because they're complaining we were talking about it too much. So, like, there is like this as revisionist history about this, where the media didn't talk about this. But, man, I got to tell you, I watched the 2020 interview the Hamby did with Biden and I was just like. And the difference is. So there is a flaw frog boiling and water element to this. Like, the different. He looks like a different person. Like, it's just like a totally different person. So anyway, I don't know.

[JVL]

Well, you know, the presidency ages people, Tim. We can all see that. So, Sarah, I will tee you up with this. We have all the little scooplets coming out of the Tapper book. And the latest one is that after. So 10 days after the debate at an event in Pennsylvania, Biden was speaking privately with Josh Shapiro. He asked Shapiro how he thought the campaign was going and shaping. Pirro gave a candid answer to him that it was not going well. And, and Dr. Jill came over and ended the conversation and pulled, pulled the President away.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I think Jill Biden's in for a real ride from this book because there is little doubt she and then some of his top advisors, people who'd been with him for a long time were the ones. And this is where the Tapper book, I think goes from. This was a mistake that everybody made to this was a cover up. And that framing is like undoubtedly unpleasant for Democrats to grapple with because it's, it goes from at a moment when this crowd really wanted, needed and we needed them to have a kind of moral authority, a moral high ground. It erodes that in a way that's pretty tough to watch. I think we, we obviously, yeah, people were mad at us for talking about his age at the time. I don't know, guys. I must have done a million shows that had voters talking about what a big problem the age was. These things were obviously raised with the right White House over and over and over. And, and so I think that people who right now express and, and I'm like this much sympathetic to the idea of like, things are so bad with what Trump is doing right now. How can you guys spare any time talking about Joe Biden and looking backward? And I'm going to answer it like this. Number one, this podcast is long. We've got lots of time. Like we can cover many topics.

[JVL]

We talked about 75 minute show. We can give three of those to this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, you get, you get some, you get some of this. But also every single thing that Trump does that is worse than you could have imagined, that is scarier. There was one real opportunity after. What was the biggest opportunity was that Mitch McConnell voted to impeach this guy when he absolutely needed to.

[Tim Miller]

Re.

[Sarah Longwell]

Impeach. Like nobody is denying for one second that there is not a lot of villains here and that I think the highest order of blame for all of this lies with Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans and Republicans in general back after January 6th. Okay, so stipulated. That being said, the level of calamity that comes from this, like, and part of it. And I think the reason that we're so angry is do you know, I'm sorry to go on about this, but I want to tell you a journey I've gone on around the word democracy in the focus groups. This is something I usually only talk to people who are kind of in the democracy world. But I want to lay it out for our listeners. Back in 2020, before or like 2019 or something, if you talked about democracy and talked about it with voters, they would have been like, well, I want to, who cares about democracy? Like, I'm not thinking about democracy. Nobody thinks about democracy. It's not something they said. And but come 2022, right, democracy started to have its moment because Donald Trump had denied an election, denied that it had happened, denied that he'd lost and then and had fomented an insurrection. And so, you know, Republicans were on their back foot on democracy. Now, of course, Republicans were making some inroads on their democracy argument by claiming that Democrats had stolen the election. Right. So suddenly democracy is a thing, but it's kind of polarized along party lines. And now today, despite everything that's happening, many people think that the Democrats are a bigger threat to democracy because they didn't hold a primary after Biden dropped out. And they think that Kamala Harris was voiced on them. I hear this from independent voters all the time. And two, they believe Joe Biden and his White House lied to them. They believe they were gaslit and lied to. And so when people are like, hey, Trump lies and everybody believes them, and it makes me so mad. You do not realize the level of anger from voters, pretty normal voters, younger voters who cannot believe that Joe Biden ran again, that they, that it was kept from them, how bad it was. And even if you say there wasn't a conspiracy, look, what were we going to do? He was the president like it. The cascading level of bad decisions there, including picking a vice president they clearly didn't have confidence in. Like, forget what my level of confidence is. But like, their treatment of her at the time, the reason that they said Joe Biden had to keep going is because you couldn't possibly go with her. And everybody took that. Everybody believe everybody was like, yeah, you can't. Until, of course, he had a health event on stage and forced everybody's hand because at that point, it was undeniable. But people were asking about his age. It was something every voter noticed. And I just the level of sheer contempt that they had for voters. Like, the idea that he was going to do this job till he was 86 is laughable. It's like they were going to have to put him in a wheelchair. And so every time you think about Trump and the havoc he's wreaking on our country, just remember there was a small group of people who decided for Joe Biden's own ego. They weren't giving him the poll. He keeps going out and talking about how the polling was all in his favor. There's no evidence, no evidence of that. And so you can't gaslight people and tell them a bunch of lies and then expect them to reject the other guy. At that point, they're saying to themselves, I just want the person who makes eggs cheaper. And then, so when you, when you talk about how dumb the voters are, like jbl, like, I'm sorry, but like, it's not irrational of them, obviously, I think the choice was clear and obviously Kamala Harris was ultimately the choice. But Joe Biden did an enormous amount of damage and the vast majority of the blame for what's going on right now. I do not put voters above Joe Biden. I put Mitch McConnell and then Joe Biden and his family.

[JVL]

I put the voters. I know you, I, look, I, I would say this is not a defense of Biden and his inner circle, who I totally agree, deserve quite a lot of blame. But Donald Trump, we have him talking to Bob Woodward, explaining why he was lying to America about COVID It is not the case that people automatically don't like being lied to. Right. This is, this is a thing that, you know, like, it's this weird shifting, like, oh, they really care about promises not being kept. Well, Trump didn't build a wall. Well, they don't care about that promise, you know, like they care about being lied to. Well, Trump lied to them about COVID and he said he told Bob Wood where he's lying because he didn't yell it was going to be really bad. Well, they didn't care about that lie. Like, it is, it's all shifting and it's always in the same direction. It's always shifting in the direction of, you know, but when Trump does it or with Republican voters, it's different. It's with, it's with normal voters, the people who aren't mouth breathing burgers. They, you know, have to be treated with a level of respect. That being said, I just want to recapitulate something you and I talked about a little bit on our show, which is in, in the, every institution failed. I think the, the Supreme Court failed in allowing him to be on the ballot. I, I Think they failed in creating a writ of immunity for him. The actual criminal court system failed. It put a judge Eileen Ken in there who was just. The fix was in from the very start. The Democratic Party failed, not for lack of trying, but it failed. The Republican Party failed. Joe Biden failed to be clear eyed about his chances. The people around him failed to, to be again, just clear eyed about. See, he was not running against Thurston Howell iii. Right. It was not. There are, there have been elections in American history where it would have been just fine to flatter the ego of the guy at the top of the ticket and let him lose because who fucking cares, right? Like, it's, it's fine. Everything's between the 40 yard lines. If the donkey is the president, great. If the elephant is president, great. Right? You know, people will be unhappy, but things are not going to be bad. The Republic's not going to go away. And so I, I just. Boundless contempt for the people who, who tried to make this happen.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, let me, let me ask you, let me go. Let me ask you guys something because I think, think, I think the question is so the top. They're going to bring out a bunch of these revelations and like, for people like us, it's just going to make us so mad that like we're going to want to talk about it a little bit on here. But what do you think the bro. Do you think there's any broader implications or is it just looking back at like a moment that happened or does it do some lasting damage?

[Tim Miller]

There's lasting damage and I think it's extremely consequential. I want people. I am, I just don't like, it's just not fun to talk about. And it's like, and I just don't like having even the Tony Blinken thing. I'm like, okay, so I have to have Tony, I guess Secretary of State wants to come on the podcast. I should have him on the podcast. And it's like, now I got to do eight minutes of berating him about Joe Biden. It's like, okay, like I'll do that. But like I, you know, I, I just, I feel like my piece has been very clear for anybody who listens. And, and so like the whole thing and there's so much stuff to talk about. That said, it will have to continue to be talked about because it will have massive long term implications and you never even know what type of ramifications things have down the line. I mean, the Clinton Lewinsky thing kind of ended up having ramifications 20 years later with Donald Trump, right, Because it alibi'd him in a way that it didn't. You know what I mean? Like the fucking Harriet Myers pick ended up having ramifications, right? Like history is confused. Huge ramifications. Things end up having like big ramifications. Like Pete was just, Pete was in Iowa yesterday, Mayor Pete, and was asked about the buying thing has to give an answer that becomes a news story. So it'll become a story in the 2028 campaign. So I know. No, I mean for the folks who, and myself included, by the way, who just like what to like to amend in black myself from ever having to think about this again because it's fucking unpleasant. I get so mad at the people around it and I like, you know, like that's fine, but it's just, it can't. It will. It's definitely going to continue to have ramifications for sure.

[Sarah Longwell]

And actually so this is the answer that I would give. One of the reasons that it matters is like this is an. For crisis communications professionals, there's sort of a rule, right? You want to tell it all, tell it fast, tell the truth because you are trying to get this story locked dead out of the way. Democrats need to cut off the Joe Biden thing and all. Like, and Tapper's book's a good time to do it. Like, it is a moment for someone like Pete and, and Pete, I saw Pete's answer. It was, it was fine. But this is going to be the do you think the election was stolen Litmus test question that Democrats are going to get. And it's going to be for. And it's going to. The problem is, is that they're going to be caught between maybe a base that doesn't really want to hear a, you know, litigation of things with Joe Biden and another segment of voters that is going to want to hear them be honest. That's going to hear and that, that is going to be a moment I think going forward. And so Dems should get it out of the way.

[JVL]

Now if I could just sort of crystallize this a little bit, I believe with Democratic voters want in this moment right now is fight. And the problem this presents for Democrats who are running is that there are two ways of looking at what is the fight response. And like the one way is the fight response is you don't give an inch and you don't kick the other guy. You come out hard again, you know. But the other one, the other side of that coin is the Fight response is like being brutally honest and in your face about the truth. And I think that's going to be the problem that a lot of Democrats have with this is they're not going to be able to figure out which side of that is the more appealing one to project.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'll tell you, I think three of.

[JVL]

Us are all in agreement that the answer is you go out and I actually don't know.

[Tim Miller]

That's the thing that would appeal to me more. But I don't know, like, if you're in a Democratic primary.

[JVL]

No, you're right.

[Tim Miller]

Like, is the right, the right political thing to do, to be like, Donald Trump is Drumpf is 81. And you never hear the media talk about that. I mean, like, that might be a better answer for politically speaking. So I think it's a complicated question.

[Sarah Longwell]

It's. This is another one where I think it doesn't have to be complicated. You were like, look, Joe Biden was obviously too old to run and he shouldn't have done that. But also the obsession with his age while letting Trump skate on all of his project 2025 autocratic stuff is why.

[Tim Miller]

You'Re a media consultant.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I'm not, actually, but like, I was. And this is. These things are, again, say the thing that you believe to be true. Because I believe what I just said is what most of those Democrats believe to be true, that it was absolutely wrong for him to run again. It's a catastrophic mistake. And also that the, the way in which that became, like, the idea that that was worse than, like, everything Trump was saying he was going to do and what he had already done, like, is also ridiculous.

[JVL]

Guys, tell us what you think about this question in the comments. Go fight about it. Fight about nothing else but this. Really. Just have at it, really, with another stranger.

[Tim Miller]

Very healthy, actually. It's very healthy to get into the comment section and to go after another avatar, a person you know nothing about, and to impugn them. That's smart.

[JVL]

I'm kidding. Great show. Incredibly long show.

[Tim Miller]

Why are we all today? It's not St. Patrick's Day. It was a very green show.

[JVL]

Hit. Like, hit. Subscribe. Follow the feed. Be with us on this joyful mystery journey that we are taking to the uncharted realms of the end of democracy. Good luck, America, peace.