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- [00:03]
JVL
Hello, everyone. It's JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark hit subscribe hit like follow the channel. Buy tickets to come see us live in Phoenix, although there probably aren't any left, to be quite, quite honest with you. Go to thebullwerk.com events and come hang out with us because everything is perfect.
- [00:25]
Tim Miller
Stand outside and throw tomatoes at JVL on the way out.
- [00:28]
JVL
If the tickets are sold out, cans of tomatoes even. All right. Last night was the big Trump speech to Congress. We are contractually obligated to speak about it. Sarah, you actually sat through the whole thing live and then did a quite excellent postgame show with with Sam.
- [00:50]
Tim Miller
I appreciate that post game show so much because I fell asleep. I fell asleep during the speech. Literally just passed out with his voice in the background, which was why I had bad dreams. And then I woke up this morning, I was like, fuck, I got a podcast about this. What should I do? And I was like, oh, wait, Sarah's already given me her analysis. So I just went and watched that. And what you can, I don't know, maybe you've. After a night's sleep, maybe you have revised or an extended thoughts, Sarah.
- [01:16]
JVL
Yeah, that's what I was gonna ask. Have you moved on? Because your general. If I could sum for viewers who may not have seen it was Trump was very, very bad and it may have been quite effective.
- [01:27]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's pretty good. Yeah, he lied and he was terrible and he sounds like a moron. And also it was like fan service up and down. I mean, the biggest thing, and I believe this maybe just more today than I did yesterday is I was watching it and I was going, okay, so he did this long stuff up front about trans sports. I mean, there was just a lot of it and then. And all of the Joe Biden, worst president ever of our lifetime. And then he kind of like did the economy and cost of living, which is basically like, it's all Joe Biden's fault. Yes. Eggs are so expensive. It's all Joe Biden's fault. I'm gonna do a great job on this. Now, I'm going to read you a list of things that USAID is spending money on that are stupid. And I was just very surprised by how little he talked about cost of living since it is easily, I would say one of the things that Trump is very good at is he is good at understanding the way Americans prioritize things. There's a reason during the election or the, you know, he talked about the economy all the time. And so it was striking to me, and I think striking more because I realized they are starting to realize what a weakness it is for them. Right. There's this old joke, this old story about a president, and maybe it's like a true story, but it's like the president comes in and his predecessor leaves him an envelope in his desk. And it was like, there's two envelopes. And the first envelope is like. He's like, open the first one first. And it's like when everything goes wrong and it will blame me. And I can't remember what the second one is like, the second part of that, terrible. But anyway, the first part I remember. And that's what he's doing. Right. It's just like blaming Joe Biden, but to not have any meat around, what he's going to do.
- [03:28]
JVL
Things were great under Joe Biden. If I could just remind people.
- [03:31]
Sarah Longwell
No, well, jbl, you and I have not had. I don't know if we've had this, this fight like irl, but I think that Trump is getting hurt on the economy in ways he never has before because people are still experiencing high inflation, high grocery prices, high cost of living, the same way they were under Joe Biden and before you were like, macro economy, great, you know, whatever. Because as it still is, I don't think the contours of the economy have not changed that much in the last.
- [04:03]
JVL
Inflation is up.
- [04:04]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, Inflation is down, growth is down. But it's been. Listen, that's fine. And I think Trump is vulnerable here, but Trump has not ruined the economy in this short period of time. It is not very different from Joe Biden's economy. True, it's a little different.
- [04:17]
JVL
It's worse. It is worse. Just objectively it's worse.
- [04:20]
Sarah Longwell
And this is how you're gonna sort of square this circle of saying Joe Biden had this great economy and now.
- [04:26]
JVL
Dad dropped 1300 points in two days.
- [04:28]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, but it's climbing back up and it's like just the last two days. Right. So people didn't form their opinions over the last two days. I've been talking to voters about this throughout, and they maintain that the cost of living is still too high. And more importantly, they do not view Trump as focusing on those issues. Like, they look at Doge and there's a group of voters. It's not all of them. Right. The fans, people who are there for fan service. And I think Trump. This is why I'm saying last night was effective from a fan service. Standpoint, Trump knows that what people want to hear is like, yeah, let me. I'm going to tell you all the dumb stuff that they're spending money on, and they were laugh lines. And I actually think it's funny to have the leader of the free world saying, like, the names of other countries where we spend money as though, like, who's even heard of this idiotic place? Is this even a real place? Like, that's a. That normally that would be a bad thing for the leader of the free world to be, like, saying, I don't know what these places are or what.
- [05:23]
Tim Miller
They do, but instead, is that made up?
- [05:25]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, right. Instead it's like an. He's turning it into an asset. And so I think, look, anyway, my point is, is that I think it was effective, actually. And I'll add one reason that I don't think I said last night or if I said it, I don't think I hit it hard enough. Republicans looked like they were having the best time and Democrats looked like they were having the worst time.
- [05:46]
JVL
And in fairness, that's because that's what was happening.
- [05:49]
Sarah Longwell
Right. But like, I just think from a pure optic standpoint of like, who looks like the winner in this situation and who looks like the losers. Democrats looked angry and defeated and like all their, the little protests and things like that looked ineffectual and small in a way that Trump looked like a guy who was winning. But to me, the underbelly of this was that he had to skirt an issue on which he is deeply vulnerable now, which is the economy. So he blames his predecessor, but at some point, the next time he gives that speech, he can't do that.
- [06:24]
Tim Miller
I have a couple thoughts.
- [06:26]
JVL
Go ahead. And then I want to ask you about aoc. Okay.
- [06:28]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I have a couple thoughts. Once there said number one. Well, a few. I want to advise and extend a couple of remarks. Before I fell asleep, I learned more about the specific instances of trans sports drama than I have my entire life. And we did like a play by play of a.
- [06:44]
JVL
Did he talk about the women's teams that were going extinct? Because that's what coach from Alabama.
- [06:51]
Tim Miller
Oh, really going to. Do you remember that women's sports are.
- [06:54]
JVL
Did you not see that?
- [06:55]
Tim Miller
Right. While women's sports are peaking. No, I just, I did learn a lot about like a JV volleyball match in Idaho or something last night, more than I needed to for presidential remarks. But he focused on that. He dialed in good.
- [07:06]
JVL
Could he send the National Guard in maybe to take care of that Middle School girl that wants to be on the girls volleyball team.
- [07:13]
Tim Miller
I pulled this up. Also, the story that you're telling, there are three envelopes, actually. The first envelope says, if you screw anything up, then open the next envelope. The next envelope says, blame everything on me, your predecessor. Then the next time you screw up, open up the third envelope. You open up the third envelope, and it says, blame everything on me again. So there you go. He was taking the advice. It's all. It's blaming. It's blaming Biden all the way down.
- [07:37]
Sarah Longwell
That's not the story. No, no, no, no, no. The end of this. No, now I remember. The punchline is, the next time you screw up, sit down and write two letters. That's the punchline of that.
- [07:48]
Tim Miller
Telling the next president to blame them. All right, well, this is good. This is good material. You know, I don't really disagree with Sarah on anything. I just. Except for the fact that I think that it's all pointless, I don't think it really matters. I actually think me and Sarah agree on the underlying point, which is if he can't deal with the economy, like, if the economy keeps going to the tank and they fuck it up, that matters more than anything that he said or that the Democrats did. And I think that, like, there is just sometimes a feeling of a need to have a take on these sorts of things. And it's like, yeah, I agree, the Democrats looked like they were sad and he looked happy, but it's like, who cares? I don't. Like, there's not another fucking election for a year and a half. And the Democrats could have done whatever they want. Like, they could have taken a shit on the ground. They could have not shown up. They could have all worn white. They could have held hands with the Republican. Like, nothing would have really mattered in the grand scheme of things. Like, their job is to make a case against him on the vulnerable issue now going forward. And I would, you know, like to see more of that and like to see more righteous rage on behalf of the people that are being hurt.
- [08:56]
JVL
So I want to get some AOC content in here because she skipped the speech and instead just went live and answered questions from people on new media. I like it.
- [09:09]
Tim Miller
Pro doing it. My AOC thing is, I've said this once before. I'll say it again. I don't know that AOC is looking to me for advice. But if, like, she did call me in for, like, a strategy session and said, what do you think I should do? I would just say, I want as much bartender AOC as possible and as little like Williams College Intersectional meeting AOC as possible. And like, I didn't watch our whole Instagram live. I watched like nine minutes of it. And I got a few minutes of bartender AOC and a few minutes of Williams College Intersectional, you know, a progressive group meeting aoc. And so it's fine. I just like, I like it as a strategy. I don't think that there's any reason to go to this thing. The whole thing is kind of farcical. Like, watching it being like, oh, we need to, we need to really respect the cabinet as they walk in. And it's like, Pete, Pete Eggseth. And it's just like the whole thing is just fucking stupid. Like, it's not, you know, it's not there. There is the idea that there's this grand tradition. Like, yeah, like, we've made a modern tradition of this in the TV era, but for like, many, many years, they just wrote letters. And for many, many years it was like a private thing that had radio address, right? Like the whole, you don't have to like, treat this with reverence. And so I think it was fine that she did it.
- [10:33]
JVL
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- [12:54]
Tim Miller
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- [14:52]
JVL
Is there an aspect of the. Was it the NRCC who this week was like, no more town halls because they didn't like the optics of Republican members getting shouted at over the economy. That sort of ties in with this a little bit, right, Sarah? I mean, it's the same thing, right? Trump couldn't talk about greatest economy ever, so he just talked about, like, transports and Lesotho.
- [15:17]
Tim Miller
Trans mice. Also trans. There was some discussion. Yeah.
- [15:20]
JVL
I mean.
- [15:20]
Tim Miller
Right.
- [15:20]
JVL
I mean, these, these things are, are kind of the same. Right. They want to insulate themselves a little bit from reality.
- [15:30]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. I mean, this is different. The town hall thing is amazing. The town hall thing is just like, don't give them like, any optic. We don't want any bad optics. And so, like, just don't meet with your constituents.
- [15:45]
JVL
Do it over zoom.
- [15:46]
Sarah Longwell
That's my favorite thing. It's just that they're gonna. And so, you know, was it, Tim, were you the one saying, like, so Democrats should hold town halls?
- [15:56]
JVL
I think it was, Bill. Bill. But yeah, Democrats should hold town halls in every, every congressional district in America.
- [16:03]
Sarah Longwell
And so I think that's once a month, like, fill the void that they're leaving, like, if they're gonna. If they're gonna. And then also make hay out of the cowardice, like, all day long. And like, you're thinking of running in.
- [16:15]
JVL
A Republican district, go out and say, you know, you're elected. You know, Jim, Bob, Bob, what's his face isn't going to show up here because he doesn't want to hear from you, but I'm running against him and I want to hear from you right now.
- [16:27]
Sarah Longwell
Now, a lot of these places are probably, like, deeply red and these are safe ish seats, but they should still create meaningful media opportunities of complaining that Democrats are. Or that Republicans are afraid of their constituents and won't show up.
- [16:42]
JVL
Yeah. All right.
- [16:43]
Tim Miller
So it's good for Democrats. By the way, this was not on our conversation about interest in Sarah's take. I think it would be good for Democrats to show up in red districts, have town halls and have them get yelled at. And like, I mean, depending on the Democrat whether they're capable of handling that, of like, parrying, you know, educating people, being like, do you actually know what's happening with the veterans being fired, et cetera, et cetera. Like, conflict benefits them right now, whereas it doesn't really.
- [17:10]
JVL
Mr. Buttigieg, sir, if you're listening, Mr. Buttigieg, you have to visit all 435 congressional districts to hold town halls. Sorry, but you gotta go do that starting today.
- [17:23]
Sarah Longwell
So depending on how the districts are made, right? Like, if the Republicans not showing up in their district and you're a Democrat who's like two districts over, like, that's who should go and be like, oh, they're not talking to you. I'm going to come talk to you.
- [17:34]
Tim Miller
Assuming they can talk. Actually, I don't know. I think maybe they should appoint 10 Democrats who can do it. I don't know. I saw a couple of selfies. You don't really know the whole Democratic caucus. There are a lot of good ones that we think about, but once you get down to number 210 or 178, there's some people out there that I don't know if we want to throw them into the lion's den, but.
- [17:55]
JVL
Like Gavin Newsom, who's got his new podcast.
- [17:57]
Tim Miller
This is what I was gonna ask Sarah, what did you think about this? Because, like, I think I'm for it. Not because I'm excited about Gavin 2028, but I think that Gavin fighting with Charlie Kirk is a useful use of his time. I feel like I'm in the minority on that. I'm curious on where you stand.
- [18:12]
Sarah Longwell
I think it is useful if he is going to be a podcaster. Now, is he a content man? If he's a content man, then great. Be a content man and be. This is. It's a. It's a. It's a good bit. If he is trying to be Gavin Newsom 2028, I actually think it's really, really freaking stupid.
- [18:32]
Tim Miller
I kind of disagree with that. I think the line between content man and president is pretty thin now. And just think about the competitors we have in the space. Gavin, Ted Cruz, Matt Gaetz, Cori Bush. Everybody wants to be a podcaster. They're all coming for us. And, you know, we'll see how they do in the rankings. I haven't seen anybody pass us yet, but we'll see. But look, I don't. I just think that, like, getting. Getting attention for attention's sake is good at this point. And he asked. He actually has to govern California. So I think probably it'd be better for him to govern California well, which would probably be the best thing for him to do. But short of that owning Charlie Kirk is about as good of ideas I could have for him underneath.
- [19:13]
Sarah Longwell
Do you think he owns governing Charlie. Charlie Kirk, do you think?
- [19:15]
Tim Miller
I have no idea. I haven't listened to watch it.
- [19:17]
Sarah Longwell
Listen to it yet. And so I'm going to withhold, like, whether I think it's remotely beneficial till I've heard it or report back.
- [19:24]
Tim Miller
That'll be a homework assignment. We'll report back next week.
- [19:27]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Because if it's a lot of like, look, obviously, I believe in robust discourse with ones obviously, you know. Yeah.
- [19:38]
Tim Miller
You and Kevin McCarthy engaged in some robust discourse.
- [19:42]
Sarah Longwell
I did. I do think that if you want to be president, United States and you, like, there's an element of it to me that is a. Performative in all the ways that I don't like Gavin Newsom in the way that he's performative. Like, I find his particular way to be not. Not good. But also it's steeped in this kind of weird, like, well, Charlie Kirk probably has some good points. Like, if he wants to run for president, United States, and he's, what, trying to win over Charlie Kirk. Like, I think he's.
- [20:14]
Tim Miller
I think he's just alpha dog. He's trying to alpha dog him. He's trying to demonstrate that he can bring. That he can bring liberal ideas into the land. Let's make a bet.
- [20:23]
Sarah Longwell
Let's make a bet on this.
- [20:25]
Tim Miller
Okay.
- [20:25]
Sarah Longwell
Let's make a bet on how. On whether or not he owns him and alpha dogs him or whether or not they do a lot of, like, handshaking. I agree with you this. On this, we agree because I bet they do a lot. He does a lot more to try to find common ground than he does alpha dog.
- [20:42]
Tim Miller
Is it Tim Walls with J.D. vance, or is it Sarah Longwell, Kevin McCarthy? I don't know. We'll see. I concur. The Tim Walls with JD Vance would not be a very good use of anyone's time.
- [20:51]
JVL
Okay, I. I'm sorry. I think. I disagree with that with him. I think. I think that if. If Newsom is able to pull an audience. Right. Because this is only useful if you can pull an audience of people who are actual undecided. Ish. Right. Like true independent types or people are just so heterodox that they. They might as well be independent because they believe too many contradictory things. I think that if you. Maybe I'm wrong. Put 10 of those people in a room to watch Gavin Newsom and Charlie Kirk, more people walk out of that room saying, yeah, you know, like, Gavin Newsom's got some points. I like him than they do. Walking out saying, I didn't really thought of that stuff that Charlie Kirk was talking about before. It makes a lot of sense, right? I mean, this is like classic Sarah outreach, like, go on Joe Rogan stuff, isn't it?
- [21:45]
Sarah Longwell
Sure, go on Joe Rogan if you want. But this is like. This is like, let's have a smarm off. I think it might be that I'm just. You cannot.
- [21:55]
JVL
You just hate Gavin so much.
- [21:57]
Sarah Longwell
This is like for me. You'd have to Clockwork Orange me to get me to watch Gavin Newsom and Charlie Kirk together. Like, I can't think of anything I would rather do less.
- [22:07]
JVL
Okay, fair enough. Can we move on?
- [22:10]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [22:10]
JVL
All right.
- [22:11]
Tim Miller
Yeah. I was just intrigued in what Sarah was going to say on that. I knew that I was not going to have a popular position.
- [22:18]
JVL
No, I think it's. Could be. I think I agree. But again, it's all about execution, whether or not you can actually get an audience. Ukraine. So a lot has happened since we sat down to talk about this. I feel like I've lost my mind on this. I did it on camera, which was fun. You know what they say, you should never. TV is a cold medium, right? You guys have heard this. You never want to be hot on camera. I did that. That was a mistake.
- [22:46]
Tim Miller
I totally disagree. And I think that that is advice from a bygone era. Think to my best materials. When I'm hot on camera and I want more hot. JVL just kind of wear a muscle shirt.
- [22:57]
JVL
If I had a nickel.
- [22:59]
Sarah Longwell
Do you know that I do want more hot. Jbl yes, but like, hot everybody. We didn't talk about Alissa Slotkin's response. And we don't need to talk so much about, you know, State of the Union. State of the Union rebuttal. But I will just say, as somebody who loves Alyssa Slotkin and. And thought that she did a pitch perfect rebuttal circa 2009. I have no notes for that era. Like, I do if I. If John. I'm taping in the crooked studios. And so I just taped with John Favreau and he's like, well, what advice would you give people? Like, messaging or whatever? And I was like, none. I would just say, like, what do you care about? What matters to you? What, like, lights you up? What are you. What are you upset about? What are you genuinely watching happen right now that you think this is fakacta? I will not stand for this, like, and go with that because this is What I'm dying for. Like, she was good. The substance was good. Her delivery was. Was. Was a plus from a, like, politician standpoint. But I think what everyone's begging for in the this is not normal kind of moment is like, show me some heat. Show me you care. Show me it matters. Because she was doing the right thing. Right. She's not talking about just, like, democracy. Right. Talking about America. America, right. You want to tell a better story about democracy?
- [24:15]
JVL
Sound like a politician.
- [24:17]
Sarah Longwell
But she sounds like a politician. A good one, but, like, still, I'm looking for. I'm looking for the love.
- [24:24]
Tim Miller
You're looking something down there. You know, give me something.
- [24:29]
Sarah Longwell
No, by down there, you mean your heart. You mean your heart.
- [24:31]
Tim Miller
I do. I did. My heart. Yeah. No. Righteous. Amanda Lippman on Today, and she had the same advice from the run for something. And she's like, I wanted righteous anger, I think was her phrase. I was like, yeah, I just want. That's all I want.
- [24:42]
JVL
All right, well, let's. Let's talk about Ukraine.
- [24:44]
Tim Miller
We all have righteous anger about Ukraine.
- [24:46]
JVL
On last. Last week, Vladimir Zelensky came to the White House. He was ambushed by Trump and J.D. vance, and what was pretty clearly choreographed attack designed to provide pretext for the Trump administration cutting Ukraine completely loose. I disagree, by the way. Thrown out. Okay, well, we can disagree about that in a minute. But I want to add the two things that have happened since then. Since then, JD Vance went and insulted our partners from the United Kingdom and France and talked about how they, you know, were loser countries. I forget the exact quote he had on this, but, you know, countries.
- [25:24]
Tim Miller
All countries that haven't fought a war in 2030.
- [25:28]
JVL
And then he, like, tried to walk it back and pretend he wasn't talking about them, which is. I'm sorry, is absolutely preposterous like that, and I will not accept that. And then we got the directive reported that we are no longer. Not only we stop weapons shipments to Ukraine, but we are no longer intelligence sharing with Ukraine. And we have directed the United Kingdom, one of our partners, that they are not allowed to share any intelligence with Ukraine if it was derived from us. And so we are telling NATO allies what to do with intelligence. And, I mean, I guess I'm happy that we aren't sharing intelligence formally with the Russians yet. Although, and I say this not to. I'm not pissing on you. I really mean this. If you were a NATO ally and you worked in intel, what would your confidence level be? That America was not off the books sharing intel with Russia at this point, zero. Because mine would be zero. And I would think that you would have to simply assume that anything you pass the Americans might get passed to the Russians. Is that. Am I a crazy person?
- [26:43]
Tim Miller
I mean, it very well might not be happening. Like you said, there's no report, but how could you possibly have any confidence, evidence, given where we are and not.
- [26:50]
Sarah Longwell
Even, like, it doesn't have to be through formal channels. Like, even if it was just Trump, Even if you're just like, the President is gonna say stuff.
- [26:57]
JVL
Yeah. Or Tulsi's gonna have her people talk to their people. Right. I mean, this is so. I don't know. I. We haven't talked about it. I'd like to talk about it. Sarah, you want to go for Tim, do you want to go first? Somebody take the jump ball?
- [27:10]
Tim Miller
I would like to go first. I'll go first on this one. Just because I disagreed with something you said, and I think that there is a. And maybe I'm wrong, I don't know. But I went and rewatched the whole 50 minutes that's supposed to be off for Tyler's 40th. I was off the books at 11 at. Right when the meeting started. And then, like, I started getting texts, and I was like, okay, well, I'm. I'm back on the books for about an hour here. I'm gonna watch this and to respond, and then I'm off. But I rewatched it clear of mind, like, without, you know, having to be multitasking. And I don't know. It just. To me, it looked like two people in J.D. vance and Donald Trump that had a temper tantrum. Like, that's what it looked like to me. Looked like Donald Trump wanted to want stab his deal. I'm not saying that he doesn't want to fuck over Zelensky. Eventually. We can all see the writing on the wall here. But I think that he wanted to be able to say he got a deal and he got peace. And JD Vance just petulantly started attacking Zelensky. I think assuming Zelensky was just going to take it. And then when Zelensky didn't, like, they both went off the handle. Trump starts shouting about Hunter Biden's bathroom. You just can't tell me that that was a premeditated message. It also happened, like, 39 minutes in. So anyway, I could be wrong. I'm just throwing out there that I think it's possible it was a temper table.
- [28:27]
JVL
Fine. Not worth arguing over, because it ultimately doesn't matter, I guess Right, Yeah, right. I mean, it is what it is.
- [28:32]
Tim Miller
And many smarter people than me, including Eric and Elliot and SHIELD Whose episode on this was great, like thought it seemed premeditated. So I just want to throw out there because I think it only matters in the context of what happens ahead. Just like the notion that the current President and Vice President can just be triggered by a minor slight into completely blowing up the Western alliance.
- [28:56]
Sarah Longwell
Was it a minor slight or was he just correcting the history?
- [28:59]
Tim Miller
A fact check.
- [29:00]
JVL
Statement of truth. Thank you.
- [29:02]
Tim Miller
Fair, Sarah. Not even a minor slight. A fact checking. A minor fact check.
- [29:06]
Sarah Longwell
That's quite important.
- [29:07]
JVL
Would it be great if JD Van said, I thought we agreed that there would be no fact checking here.
- [29:12]
Tim Miller
Exactly. So anyway, the intelligence thing today though, I just wanted to pop off on because it is so fucking bad. It is so bad because the weapons shipment thing, right, is something that like could hypothetically be fixed. I don't really think there's not a lot of reason to have optimism that it will be fixed. Right? But that, who knows, like the cooler heads could prevail and we could do some sort of rare earth for weapons deal that like lasts another year or whatever. Like that, like that could all still happen. But like the intel gathering stopping, like could cost Ukrainian lives as we speak, like right now, right? Like our into the intel that we are providing both Israel, which I never got any credit for, and Ukraine, like according to all of the experts I talked to, has just been absolutely critical. And like we, you know, our allies were steps ahead of the game on what was happening out in the battlefield.
- [30:09]
JVL
Also Ukraine feeds intel to us, right? Yeah, that's the other thing, Right. I mean it is a two way street. This is important things for us and for our allies to know about what Russia is doing.
- [30:19]
Tim Miller
Right. And so stopping immediately could mean like Russia does something in the next day or two. So it's different than saying, okay, you're not gonna get these weapons you're planning on in a month, which also matters. And then the UK thing, like on top of JD Vance shitting on them, like the idea that we would like tell the Brits what they can do again when Tulsi got nominated, and this isn't even Tulsi, the thing that Michael Weiss said that Hertling said that all the experts we talked to said was, I'm just super concerned about intel sharing now between us and our allies. And I think that the ramifications of that both in Ukraine, but potentially here in America are very dire. So it's a fucking. It's really, really bad.
- [31:02]
Sarah Longwell
So here's. I also saw it and was, I don't know about shocked by it, but let me tell you why it's different than the not shipping dollars and, or weapons is that the American people are losing their patience with, or at least Republicans really, but even more slightly more broadly than that. Like, they don't like the idea of us. They think, even though they sort of think it incorrectly, that we're sending lots of money and weaponry. What we're actually doing is replenishing our stockpiles by sending them old stuff. And like, we're actually making a lot of the money in our own industrial. But like, that's a lot to explain to the American people. And so like the idea.
- [31:43]
JVL
I mean, how could you expect people to explain, understand something that took you literally two sentences? I mean, it's so complicated. God, it's like trying to explain cold fusion.
- [31:53]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [31:56]
JVL
How could you possibly expect people to understand that, Sarah?
- [32:01]
Sarah Longwell
Well, maybe it would be good if people were as good, you know, as at messaging as whatever. Just hold on. The point is, is that you can, you could, if you're the American president, you can be like, my country, right? Our voters are losing patience on this. There is no voter anywhere who's like, let's not share intelligence with them and let's like, oh, there are voters like that effectively, yeah, but not really. Right. Like the, the, in the main, the voters are not upset that we're sharing intelligence or like helping Ukraine. They don't want boots on the ground and they don't want money that could be spent here being spent over there. That is like, and that's, that's a whole American first scarcity mentality that Trump has cultivated where like anything that goes to an immigrant or anything that goes to Ukraine or anything from usaid, that is all stuff you don't get, you person. And so it's directly being taken out of your pocket. Nobody, nobody believes that about intelligence. So, and so it is both, I think, not backed by any sentiment of American people. So this is being actively done by just like Trump and this administration because they want to harm Ukraine. And I was just, I was talking about this with JVL before the show. And again, I don't want to get ahead of my episode with Tommy Vitor on Saturday of the focus group, but we've been doing a bunch of focus groups on Ukraine and like, Trump is misunderstanding people if he thinks that this war can end with Russia winning or taking over more territory for Ukraine and that not looking like A loss for Trump.
- [33:37]
Tim Miller
Do you think he cares about that?
- [33:39]
Sarah Longwell
I don't know. I don't know what he cares. Like his incentives now are like, they don't make a lot of sense.
- [33:45]
JVL
Oh, they make sense.
- [33:48]
Sarah Longwell
Well, let's talk through that because I know that's sort of part of the, you know, Lindsey Graham stuff, but I, I just, I don't know. I do not think Americans do not like to lose wars and they don't like us to look like losers. And so I think that if Russia walks away with this and it looks like America did nothing, like, I actually think that does harm Trump.
- [34:10]
JVL
Sarah, isn't the way to square this just by having America switch sides? Because if Russia wins and we're on Russia's side, then we're the winners.
- [34:21]
Sarah Longwell
So he can try that. But I think that America's and especially Republican support for Ukraine has been going down. Right. It's been a precipitous drop. Our support for Russia has not been on a similar incline. And so what's interesting is that people are not happy about Ukraine. They think like, you know, they believe this again, scarcity. They think the money's going there, they think there's money laundering. They think they, they don't think well of Zelensky the way they did three years ago because they've been. The right has been just. And I mean, I think we could have a, like a real talk about some of the missteps I think Zelensky's made, including with Joe Biden, like, he's not a perfect person. Is he infinitely better than Trump? And was the way that Trump talked to him like the most stomach churning, disgraceful thing? Yes. But like my point is, is that there have been areas that have allowed the right wing media to just be churning and churning and churning on a hate Zelensky campaign. We shouldn't be support. But the pro Putin stuff has not caught on. And so just switching sides. People think that the way that Trump is handling Putin is all part of Trump's strategery, his negotiating position, his ten dimensional chess. If Russia actually wins, people will be like, Trump, Trump screwed that up.
- [35:41]
Tim Miller
I would get a Zelensky to go.
- [35:43]
Sarah Longwell
Listen to the episode. The episode's very interesting.
- [35:46]
Tim Miller
I'm interested to hear that. But he is, I mean, not completely perfect for me, but pretty close. I think you square it by saying that Trump, like in everything sees this as about him. Not to George Conway, but this is in his malignant narcissism and that he sees this as a personality drama. And Zelenskyy is mean to him, and Putin is nice to him, and Biden failed to get peace, and he could get peace. So maybe it's a miscalculation. I'm interested to hear the focus group. It's hard for me to wrap my head around what the median American thinks about Ukraine at this point, but I think explaining Trump's motivations is he's like, well, if I can get a deal here, a peace deal, even if it's a shitty one for Ukraine, oh, well, Ukraine deserves a shitty deal because Zelenskyy's been mean to me, Putin's helped me and been nice, and he probably deserves to get a little bit of land. I'm like, whatever, and we can cut this deal and maybe I can get some rare earth out of it and call it a win. I think that's what he's thinking. I don't think he's thinking about American interests at all, or about geopolitical or. I watched the Glenn Beck thing about how the 4D chess. I think it is a very simp. Like, he is trying to be the negotiator between two people, and he's determining which side he likes better based on who's nicer to him. I think it's honestly as simple as that.
- [37:09]
Sarah Longwell
I agree with that. I think my question is then, though, like, what is the outcome right now? Tim, actually, what you just said does make some sense to me. The idea that there's probably something in there where Trump is willing to give away. Like, right. Like Trump doesn't care if Ukraine has to give away some of its land. I will say the voters in the focus groups down on Ukraine did not like that idea at all of Russia getting Ukraine's land. But you're right that, like, they also want peace and they want. And they liked the mineral deal. Like, they liked the idea of the deal.
- [37:46]
Tim Miller
We're going to get rare earth. We'll see when that rare earth comes through. I just. I'm like, the whole thing is so ridiculous to see the fake smart, fake smart MAGA people, like the Winnie the Pooh and the Tuxedo MAGA defenses of this. The things that really pissed me off, which is like, you guys just don't understand. And JD did this, like, there's no better security deal for Ukraine than the rare earth minerals. Because, like, if we feel like we have an economic incentive, then we're definitely gonna go. We're definitely gonna go to their defense. And I was like, Michael Weiss made this point yesterday to me. He was just like, are you telling me that if, then, if Russia decided to go take that territory with the rare earth, that Trump wouldn't just, like, make the deal for it with, like, we're really gonna go to battle? Like, we're gonna send troops. Like, these guys are gonna send troops in to defend the fucking Ukrainians. Rare earth minerals. Like, ludicrous. Like, the whole thing is. The whole thing is ludicrous. Like, everybody can see. Speaking of, they like talking about the cards. Like, everyone can see Trump's cards. Like, he's playing it. He's playing poker with his cards backwards. We know what they are, what they're willing to do. Like, this idea that he's some crazy man and you'll never know what he's gonna do. It's like, no, it's almost predictable person in the world, he's not going to send troops into Ukraine. Putin can do whatever the fuck he wants.
- [39:04]
JVL
I mean, look, the Occam's Razor explanation is probably right, but I think there is something more going on here, right? So the intelligence thing is about Ukraine, and it's about fucking Ukraine, but it's also about screwing over NATO, right? And this is a. So the Europeans have made quite clear that they believe that Ukraine is central to their security. And so, as you said, like, you know, stopping weapons shipments is bad, but you could, if you wanted to sell it to our allies, you could sell it as like, hey, this is just what domestic politics requires of us. Saying we're going to stop doing intel sharing is us. If that is an attack on the interests of our allies, yes, that is an attack on NATO's interests. That is saying, yes, we hear that you believe Ukraine is important to your interests, and we're going to screw you. So why. It's about helping to break up NATO. That is what this is ultimately about. And when I think about Donald Trump and about what he wants to do with America, you can understand why he doesn't like NATO, because the NATO countries are, with the exception of Hungary and Turkey, democracies, and he doesn't want to live like that. And so being, you know, holding hands with France and with the UK and Poland, that feels icky to him because he thinks it makes. It makes his project look worse. Whereas if he switches sides, right then selling to America, like, look, autocracy is great. This is why we're on the sides of Putin. Look how great these guys are. I just think it all makes his larger domestic project more palatable, and it feels like it's in harmony. Maybe that's part of what's going on.
- [40:52]
Tim Miller
Maybe. All I'm saying is I think there's a chance that he's not even really thinking about a domestic project. Very possible in an authoritarian way. And it's like that Macron and these guys just feel like they're the libs that don't like him. And the gene dictators feel like Keir.
- [41:09]
JVL
Starmer showing up last week with the letter. I have here a very special letter from His Majesty. And this is Mr. Trump. I hope you understand, Mr. President, this has never happened before. This is so special that he is inviting you. It is a sign of his unbelievable respect for you. I mean, it was an astonishing point. It is not like these guys are all running around kicking him and making fun of him in public. They are doing the thing that he says he wants.
- [41:39]
Tim Miller
This is a great point. And this is the thing that annoyed me the most about this lens.
- [41:43]
JVL
Because they're Democrats.
- [41:44]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Even like, pro democracy, even pro Ukraine people. I saw several takes from smart, pro Ukraine people that were criticizing Zelenskyy for this. Yeah.
- [41:52]
JVL
Puck was on this.
- [41:53]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Why isn't he doing more like Keir Starmer? And I'm just like, where, again, if it was the last year of his presidency, okay. But like, there's. Where's the evidence that this works for any long period of time? Like, you can suck up to him for a little while, but, like, eventually he turns on fucking everybody. Like, he's turned on everybody also.
- [42:15]
JVL
Zelenskyy was entirely. Zelensky has gone out of his way to have good relations with Trump. This is not, you know, could he have gone farther? Well, he can always go farther.
- [42:23]
Tim Miller
Yeah. It's like the Keir Starmer thing. I guess my point is that Kier does everything that people say you should do, as you point out, and then a week later, Trump's like, you're not allowed to use our intel.
- [42:32]
JVL
Yeah. A week later, Trump is making dick tots to him about what the UK Intelligence agencies can do.
- [42:37]
Tim Miller
Right. So fuck him. That's my point.
- [42:41]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Here's my question. This is a genuine question. I do think we struggle a little bit in the realpolitik elements of assessing this, because Zelensky becomes a stand in for us in these situations. And what we would like to see Zelensky do is kick Trump in the balls. Right. Like, we watch Trump and Vance, who. Especially Trump, who has earned nothing, who has never put a country before himself or his people or anything, has never endangered a hair on his stupid head for Anything resembling a moral or something like deeper and bigger than himself. And so we, I think, really get Zelensky's anger and like them, them recasting how Russia behaved toward Ukraine has got to be for Zelensky at a, the most gut level, like, just impossible to swallow. And we don't want him to swallow it. Like, we sitting here don't want him to swallow it because it, it's immoral. Right? It's, it's, it'd be, it'd be this person that we think is right. Okay, but is that right or should he. And I see a lot of take and I react badly to these takes. So I'm not giving this take myself, but I am challenging myself to think if I'm Zelensky and I just have to get this done and I recognize that this guy is falling closer and closer to Russia and we probably can't do this. Like, when Trump says you're not holding the cards, like, one of the biggest cards he was holding is America's support. And Trump has the ability to take that away. And so I hate, hate JD JD Vance and Trump doing that to him because it's awful. But if you know that they're awful and you know that they're kind of sympathetic to your, like, what do you do if you're Zelensky? What is the right real politics?
- [44:51]
JVL
Can I feel this? Yeah, Can I feel this? The realpolitik answer to this is that Zelensky must have known or should have known that this story ends with Trump on Putin's side. And so from his position, this is going to wind up having to be either something that there is a peace deal that has to be sold to the Ukrainian people that they will sign off on in some way. I don't think that exists states in any possible framework, or he needs to shore up European support and he needs to come to terms with the fact that NATO is fracturing and he needs to have rock solid relations with the EU nations. And in order to that, you need to prove to the EU nations that you are going to go all the way to the wall. And so because of that, I think he had to be not tough because he wasn't tough with Trump, but he did have to display that he isn't ready to like, just fold up. Right. You have to demonstrate strength. And what this is really about from his perspective, I think he must know that there is nothing he could do to hold Trump on side. It has been clear as day that Trump is on Russia's side and so the future for them is the eu.
- [46:19]
Tim Miller
I hear your question, Sarah, and you might be right. I might be totally blinded by my rage, but I just isn't the real politik side of this eventually calling Trump's bluff, you know what I mean? And I sort of see that across the board and maybe it was Zelensky, it's too big of an ass. But because just the life and death nature of this. But I just feel this way across the board. Like everybody's decided that the real politic way, whether it's in the trade wars or whether it's on the Capitol Hill, whether it's in Ukraine, the real politic way to deal with Trump is to flatter him. Flatter him. Rub his belly. Rub his belly and assume that he'll stay on your side for as long as possible. And isn't it incumbent on somebody to be like, no, fuck you, bring it. Let's see. All right. Do you really, you really have the balls to switch sides to Russia? You really have the. You're really going to do that? You're going to break up NATO? I don't believe you. I think. I don't, I don't. I want to see you do it. And then if you do it, then, okay, then I'll go with the Europeans again. It's probably too much to ask Islam for Zelensky, but like, I just, I.
- [47:24]
JVL
Mean, I believe that NATO is basically done and I'm an accelerationist on this because the, the most important thing is the EU rearming and coming to a post NATO arrangement and ripping the band aid off is the surest way to spur public opinion in Europe, which I don't know if you guys saw, but even the Daily Mail in Britain has turned on Trump.
- [47:53]
Tim Miller
Attacked Trump.
- [47:54]
JVL
Yeah, I don't think people understand that Vance thing in which he, again, without saying the Brits in France, but absolutely insulted these people. These people have, they've, for no reason of their own, have shed the blood of their soldiers just to like ride sidecar with America over the last 20 years. It is astonishing that the Vice President, United States would insult them like this. And like, I don't know, like, that's.
- [48:21]
Sarah Longwell
So. Can I, can I just follow up on this? Because your answer is very compelling to me. And that's what I want that to be true. Like, I want it to be that Zelensky understands that Trump is not going to be on his side and like, the best thing that they can do is solidify an alliance with Europeans and understand that America's Gone. Why did he send that letter that Trump read at the State of the Union? Don't you think he's trying to, like, figure it out? Do you not feel like he's scrambling right now in this moment a little bit, buying time?
- [48:52]
Tim Miller
I think he also has to buy time. I think he's got to buy time. Right? I mean, I think that's what it is, right?
- [48:59]
JVL
It's post cleanup.
- [49:01]
Tim Miller
I mean, again, I don't believe this is why I think it is too big of an ass, probably as Alinsky to do what we want on the balls kick. I think that, like, there are other people that are better positioned to do it, but, like, I don't know, like buy time, you know, run the clock.
- [49:14]
JVL
So the thing is, from Zelensky's position, if he could have elongated this period of ambiguity with the Americans, then he wanted to do that. But at that meeting, and that's why he's like, you know, dangled the rare earth stuff and, you know, been willing to sell rights of some sort to the Americans. But at that meeting, when you're getting attacked like that, you can't go into Turtle Guard because you've got to make sure the Europeans know that you're not going to fold up if they, if they come to and they actually start spending the money on weaponry and decide that they're going to rearm. They need to know that you're a reliable partner and you will fight.
- [49:53]
Sarah Longwell
So you think, you think he did that? You think he knew exactly what he was doing? You don't think he reacted from like a gut instinct level of like, I can't. Because to me, I disagree.
- [50:04]
JVL
Maybe he is. I'm not inside the guy's head.
- [50:05]
Sarah Longwell
I agree with Tim. Like, I also watched that whole thing, and it did not look like a setup to me. It looked like. What it looked like to me was that that truth exists below the surface for everybody. Right? Like, Zelensky hates them. They hate Zelensky.
- [50:18]
JVL
Yeah.
- [50:19]
Sarah Longwell
And everybody would.
- [50:20]
JVL
Sealed the deal for me was their, their press release was out within like seven minutes of the end of that meeting. You know, I just don't think that you, you don't have that level of like, hey, the American. The foreign policy of the United States has just changed in seven minutes. Right. You know, going into that meeting that you're going to put out a press.
- [50:40]
Tim Miller
Release saying this I will.
- [50:43]
JVL
Well, I mean, it did, right? It said he's not a partner for peace, he's not welcome here. It's.
- [50:48]
Tim Miller
I. There's a change about the Zelensky letter on this. That's kind of last thought on this is I did. It does seem kind of clever. And the military guys was reading it feels kind of clever. His proposal and that counter proposal, which was basically, let's do a peace fire in the air and sea, essentially a ceasefire. Yeah. All right. So no bombing, no ships. Right. And it's like. Because on the one hand it's like, well, fine, if you want to say Putin will follow a ceasefire, like, let's test it. Like let's do it. Like, let's do a little partial ceasefire. Let's see if he actually will do it. On the other hand, it's like that does again run the clock as far as, okay, we're gonna have to really up the, you know, our production, like working with Europe, etc. Etc. So I don't know. And it's like not a. It was not, it was not a full submission to the Trump thing. Right. It was like a counter proposal that included some Trump belly rubbing, because that's what you have to do, I guess.
- [51:49]
JVL
By the way, did you guys read that gigantic New York Times piece about drones in Ukraine? It's fascinating. 70% of battlefield casualties are now from drones. And so drones have replaced basically artillery. They've replaced even like a traditional air, like, you know, F, F16 and Mig 29s and stuff. It is wild. And this is whatever. We can get into that another time. Tariffs. It's tariff week again. Is it real this time? What do you guys think, Sam? Our colleague Sam Stein has set the over under on Friday for the latest round of tariffs to be undone. Sarah, you'd like to bet they've already partially been undone. They might be undone by the time we finish.
- [52:38]
Sarah Longwell
He's doing carve outs is what it looks like. It's right that he's going to keep them in. He's going to do auto and a couple other things where people see he's going to have.
- [52:45]
JVL
What is this? He's going to have people self report.
- [52:47]
Sarah Longwell
I don't know. Well, it just seems like people who yelp the loudest, it's like they went to a Ford dealership or something and the guy was like, well, this is going to. No one's going to buy these trucks and it's going to add $20,000 to the cost. And so Trump's like, well, we'll, we'll exempt automobiles. Problem solved. So I guess just people, because I.
- [53:07]
Tim Miller
Thought the tariffs are going to bring on around a golden age. So if it helps People to not carve them out. That that kind of undermines the argument for them, I would think.
- [53:16]
JVL
Well, see, 48 hours ago, Maria Bartiromo was saying how it was good to have these tariffs on autos because it would convince these people to relocate all of their production to America. And now the carve outs will be good because that's the essence of Trumpism. Right. Whatever he says now, we believe and is true. And then we'll believe the opposite in five minutes when he changes his mind.
- [53:39]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I think that they're going to be around. To me, he feels like a stubborn old man that has decided that tariffs are good and won't be talked out of it. And so me and Sam are on opposite sides of this one, he says.
- [53:52]
Sarah Longwell
And also he's always liked it. He's always liked tariffs. Like, this is one of those deep Trump things. Just like I think he's never liked immigration.
- [54:01]
JVL
He's always liked the wall. He never even talks about the wall anymore.
- [54:06]
Sarah Longwell
Well, that's because they're just rounding people up and deporting them. This is no longer about a staunch. This is no longer about stopping the flow in. It's about actively getting people out.
- [54:15]
Tim Miller
But the carve out also he likes because it gives him unilateral power. It's the kind of thing where he's.
- [54:21]
Sarah Longwell
Like, come kiss my ring and we'll figure out a deal for it.
- [54:23]
Tim Miller
Yeah, well, you know, I'll wave the wand and, you know, the autocrat will let you know whether or not you are in favor or not. So he likes that because that gets people to be nice to him, makes them feel powerful. So I think that they'll keep doing it. The reciprocal tariffs, he says, are coming in April, people, because, like, there's sort of a bipartisan, a soft, bipartisan agreement. Not for me as a free marketer, but there's a soft bipartisan agreement about the China tariffs. And, like, people don't like China. It's like that. Whenever they talk about the Trump bluffs on tariffs, nobody mentions this. But the China tariff stayed from the first round and he added onto them and there's no sign. And the 20% tariff on China, if those stay like that alone is bigger than all of the tariffs that he did in the first term, the costs of those tariffs will exceed everything they did in the first term. So if that just stays, that is going to have an impact on the economy. And even maybe some people think that's a good thing. But okay, but that's happening. The Mexico, Canada stuff Like, right now, I guess we're going to keep. We're going to keep tariffing tomatoes and not cars and then reassess it on April 2nd. But the Europeans, I think, are playing with fire. I think there's a European tariff coming in April where Trump wants to throw a fastball their direction. He's already pissed at them, and he's talked about a free market deal with Argentina. I think he's going to keep doing all this shit. Like, I don't see any, like, path towards him being, like, all right, mission accomplished.
- [55:53]
JVL
Couldn't he just sort of, like, spinning plates here, though, like, declare a tariff on somebody, then pull it off, declare it on somebody else, pull that off. So long as he's always declaring a tariff, he never has to keep any tariffs in place.
- [56:06]
Sarah Longwell
It'll be interesting how the markets respond to that, because, I mean, I guess. I guess people can do a lot of, like, insider short shorts on things because, like, he's going to put the tariffs on and he's going to take them off, and so there's going to be the dip by the dip, and it is going to take them away. I don't know. But, like, that is no way to run an economy. Just.
- [56:28]
Tim Miller
You don't think, like.
- [56:30]
Sarah Longwell
I think. I think long term, I don't know that he can do that indefinitely without the markets starting to have, like, some pretty entrenched feelings about it. Can we talk, though? Because a lot of these things layer up to the question of, like, what's he playing at here for the long term? And so not to take over the show, but that's great.
- [56:50]
JVL
It's a good segue. Lindsey Graham's tweet. So Lindsey Graham tweeted that Donald Trump's performance in the State of the Union was fantastic. And he concluded his Tweet with Trump 2028. He's just shooting shitposting. You people worried about this or just you have Trump derangement syndrome?
- [57:11]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, we're gonna joke about it until it's real.
- [57:14]
JVL
Yeah, that's right.
- [57:15]
Tim Miller
I mean, I think that the good news is that at this point, like, the odds of a total economic collapse between now and 2028, like, are increasing every day. Not a guarantee, but I think it will be. It's gonna be rather challenging for him to have the popular will to run now. I guess this is where JBL would go. Like, he'll take the military. I just. To me, it's like, the bigger risk of 2028 is like the Putin thing, where you do, like, a Stooge, reverse, you know, reverse whammy. And then like a military coup, I don't think we can take off the table, unfortunately. But I do think that his position for all that stuff gets weaker if there's an economic collapse. I do think it is, it is.
- [58:00]
JVL
Related to the state of emergency. We have saboteurs stabbing real hard working heritage Americans in the back. Timothy. And so you can't hold elections in circumstances like this where they're just going to steal it.
- [58:12]
Sarah Longwell
We got to postpone them. I think that's tougher. I really agree with, I make this point a lot that like the thing for Trump 2028 to happen, Trump has to be popular and like things have to be going well. So if he keeps crashing the economy, I don't know that, that, I don't, I don't think you can do Trump 2028 then.
- [58:33]
JVL
I mean it makes it harder, but only marginally. And the other thing is he, he does seem to be making moves to take over all the reporting agencies. So it is possible that we will wind up having it be like the Soviets, you know, like, ah, this year's wheat harvest has set all the records. You know, the kulaks have never brought in more wheat. Comrades, everything is great. Why can't we get bread? Don't listen to that. That's what the, that's what the imperialists are telling you. Fake news, fake scouts.
- [59:02]
Tim Miller
Definitely feel like they're coming.
- [59:04]
Sarah Longwell
They're already, I mean, this, this thing when he opened the State of the Union and like, obviously I expect this from him, but there was a part of it where it's like, it was a landslide, you know, a huge mandate by margins not seen in the modern era. I'm like, your margin was smaller than Biden. It was smaller than Obama. Like, what are you talking, Hillary Clinton, like, no, no. And then it's like the right track, wrong track is better than it's ever been. And I was like, it's not though.
- [59:31]
JVL
That's not true.
- [59:32]
Sarah Longwell
It's not.
- [59:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I don't know. I don't think, I mean, I've been playing this Steve Cohen clip on the pod.
- [59:41]
JVL
Oh, I've heard it. Heard it every time.
- [59:44]
Tim Miller
Because it's just like the math is they're in a really bad spot. Cutting government spending, increasing the prices on things with tariffs, bullying the Fed into lowering rates. None of it really seems good. Everybody's been showing the Atlanta Fed graph. Who knows? Just one economist, though I think it was Mark Zandi, also has downgraded us to to being basically neutral. I think that, like, he bankrupted every business he ever did. And it seems like that that is the trajectory we're on. And I think that the worse it goes, the more desperate he's going to get. And I do think that a lot of the things JBL worries about will happen then, like the fake numbers and the wheat harvest. But, like, eventually, I do think reality overtakes the ability of propaganda, but it's going to be. I feel like we're going to have a nice kind of sociology test on that. Can, in the modern media world, can propaganda overtake reality? We might be. We might be able to find out.
- [60:52]
JVL
All right, I want to get us out of here soon, but I have to do this because I need this. Sarah. Don't. Don't blackball me, Mitch. I need this. NBC 4 in Philadelphia interviewed Mr. J. Smith, who worked for the federal government's Techpayer Advocate Service in Philadelphia, and he was laid off.
- [61:12]
Tim Miller
Philadelphia is an important city for voting, right? Was kind of like, which way you voted on that? It was kind of meaningful.
- [61:18]
JVL
I'd like to. I'm sorry, it was NBC 10, not NBC 4, but I'd like to read from their report, Sarah, and have you react to it. When asked by NBC10 political reporter Lauren make if he supported Trump in the last election, Smith hesitated with his answer before ultimately saying he did. Honestly. Yeah, I did. Smith said. I thought, you know, he would be somebody that would, you know, because he talked a lot about taking care of the military, taking care of veterans, taking care of the people to put him in office. And that just hasn't happened. So if I could go back in time, I would have voted for Vice President Harris in a heartbeat.
- [61:53]
Sarah Longwell
Did he say that about Vice President Harris?
- [61:56]
JVL
Yes.
- [61:56]
Tim Miller
Oh, my God.
- [61:57]
JVL
Hey, Sarah.
- [61:58]
Sarah Longwell
That's interesting because I would say a lot of the voters that I'm talking to that are starting to show the signs of, like, he's not focusing enough on the economy. The one thing they're not doing. And this is where I got really annoyed because some people I was on Nicole Wallace and I talked about these voters and Huffington Post and Daily Beast, like, both ran hits, like pieces off of my hit.
- [62:20]
Tim Miller
They aggregated you. You got.
- [62:22]
Sarah Longwell
And they did like. And it was very, like, yass queen resistance y of, like, voters turning on Trump. And I was like, okay, no, actually.
- [62:32]
JVL
Oh, so that's why you wrote that piece for the Atlantic, that great Atlantic piece.
- [62:35]
Sarah Longwell
Yes, I did. Actually. This is part of it is I knew I was going to get this but part of the reason I did is to be like the nothing in any of it suggests that people are like, I regret this and wish I had voted for Democrats. Like, nobody is saying that. What they are saying is I don't feel like Trump is focused enough on the economy, which is why I wanted. I was very careful about being like, this is the very beginning of a kind of buyer's remorse. Not people being like, boy, I wish I'd voted for Democrats. And so I didn't care for the way that they. You reporters have to call me if you're going to do stories about my research, because otherwise you're going to misrepresent it and then people won't trust me.
- [63:15]
Tim Miller
Sarah, getting aggregated is a sign of success in the content business. So sorry you've been aggregated. It is just part of the deal. I'll say this. What I learned from listening to Sarah is listening to JVL read Mr. Smith's quote. I was filled with a blinding rage. And then listening to Sarah talk about the voters who are unhappy with Trump but don't have any regrets, have no regrets. Makes me think maybe I should appreciate Mr. Smith.
- [63:42]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not saying they have. Not saying they have. Well, I'm not saying they have no regrets. I'm just saying they don't feel like this is what they asked for. They feel like he's not focusing on it, and they're hopeful that he will. But if he doesn't, I do think they can turn on him.
- [63:54]
Tim Miller
Well, they can keep hoping, but there's nothing false about hope. You never know. Maybe Trump will turn over a New Leaf at 79.
- [64:04]
JVL
You know, if only. If only he. If only he would listen to the hopes of the true American folk. All right, guys, good show. Long show. Both of you guys got to get out of here. I gotta get to church. Get happy Lent, everybody. That's a Catholic joke. There is no such thing as a happy Lent. And we'll see.
- [64:26]
Tim Miller
Jbl, what are you giving up for Lent?
- [64:28]
JVL
Good luck, America. I don't like to talk about my Lent.
- [64:31]
Tim Miller
Okay, okay.