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- [00:00]
Erin Andrews
Hey guys, it's Erin Andrews from Calm down with Erin and Carissa. So they say you can't plan for the unexpected, but whoever said that obviously didn't know about Aflac. You probably know the Aflac duck, but you might not know what Aflac can do for you. For example, did you know they pay cash that can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. If you get sick or injured, Aflac pays cash that can be put towards co pays and deductibles to even non medical expenses like rent or your mortgage payments. It's completely up to you. Get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. Visit aflac.com to learn more. Pro Paint days are back at Lowe's.
- [00:40]
Tim Miller
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- [00:54]
Erin Andrews
Your job site when you order by 2pm Offer valid through 6 13.
- [00:59]
Tim Miller
Delivery by 8pm subject to driver availability. The additional terms apply. C loads.com SameDay Delivery for details if you went up to a MAGA person in dc, a mag elected official, you can you name the one you can think of one and say do you think Trump and J.D. vance and Stephen Miller are happy or upset about the riots in LA?
- [01:20]
Erin Andrews
Happy?
- [01:20]
JVL
Yeah, 100% happy.
- [01:22]
Tim Miller
And they would even say it.
- [01:25]
JVL
Hello everyone, this is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwarks. Sarah and I were just together in meatspace with my Meat Heat last night. It was amazing and now we are separated by hundreds of miles and the disintermediation of screens the way God intended.
- [01:45]
Tim Miller
Sarah and I were also together at the live Bulwark Crooked fundraiser for the Immigrant Defenders, the Free Andree fundraiser and Sarah. I have a compliment and then a negation of the compliment and the compliment.
- [02:01]
Erin Andrews
Is this sounds right.
- [02:02]
Tim Miller
Sarah was really funny. Like kind of annoyingly funny. And you know, me and Lovett both kind of fashion ourselves humorous. And so to have Sarah outshine us on the comedy portion of the Free Andre show was a tough pill to swallow. I was proud of her, but it was a tough pill to swallow and so she gets a lot of credit. Good comic timing, good jokes. A couple of the jokes came out of her head. Quite a few of the jokes came out of the writer's room though. I do just want to flag. I walked into the office and Sarah's having a meeting with like seven youth And I looked at her assistant, I was like, what's happening in there? She's like, oh, they're having a brainstorm for tonight. And I was like, oh really? And she came out of the brainstorm with like a sheath of 70 jokes that youth had written for her. And so I do I give her credit for the comedy and for outshining me. No doubt I was not the funniest Sarah was. But it is worth noting that my jokes did come. My mid jokes did come from my noggin. It was also great to see her.
- [03:04]
Erin Andrews
I'm sorry that you weren't willing to put in the same level of work and dedication that I was. That I was like, hey, also I was like, these guys are coming for me. So like I'm gonna be prepared. Now I will say some of my top stuff, like me being the top on the stage. That was all me came off. That was all me straight off the dot, straight off. But the ones, the ones where it sounded like I was making a joke about something I didn't quite understand, like you guys taking shots of prep, those came from. Those came much from a straight 27 year olds.
- [03:36]
Tim Miller
Well, it's great. You were great. It was good to see Michael Finnow. If people haven't seen it and don't want to watch the two hour show, I believe Crooked just put out a clip of the Michael Fanone portion which was God's honest truth. Like I was crying, I was in tears. He was telling a story about the time when he was undercover in the gay bars. And it was the funniest I've heard in a while. So do check that out.
- [03:56]
Erin Andrews
Can I tell you something, Tim? So. So Fanon was downstairs with me in like my dressing room where he was like standing outside the door and he's telling me and I'm kind of half listening, but he's telling me how he used to go to gay bars to buy all these drugs. And I was sitting there being like, I cannot believe they let this guy be a police officer. Like he. Why is he telling me about all the times that he was trying to buy crystal meth in a gay bar? I was like, I don't need to know this. And I was literally like about to go on being like, this is such a bizarre thing for him to telling me. Then he got out on stage and was talking about how he was an undercover cop doing this. And I was like, I am following. I am suddenly following this. Yeah, I will say from that live show I did get some. I got some Nice feedback. I also got some feedback about my laugh being annoying, which, you know, just.
- [04:48]
Tim Miller
Keep that to yourself, people.
- [04:50]
Erin Andrews
This is. This is what I did. I did sort of watch the show, though, and I realized that I think that there is a thing that one does when one's a professional that I failed to do, which is when you are doing a funny show and you're gonna laugh, you should move the mic away from yourself when you laugh. Instead, it's me. I'm delivering my joke, and then I'm laughing hard into the microphone as I.
- [05:09]
JVL
Deliver the joke, because those jokes were new to you, so.
- [05:16]
Tim Miller
That's true. All right, well, unfortunately, we've got a lot of dark stuff to talk about, so that was a nice little palate cleanser. Jbl, what are we starting with?
- [05:25]
JVL
All right, so I. I mean, I had one more good thing, but I'll save that to the end because we're gonna go to a dark place. This has been a bad week. It's only Wednesday. We have pretty. Pretty cruel and destructive mass deportation crackdowns happening in ways which seem designed to create as much civil unrest and pain as possible in American cities, especially in blue cities and blue states. We have the President deploying first the National Guard and then the Marines to city streets, and we have the president's military parade coming, and then also a set of organized protests nationwide. I don't know. It just seems like this all feels like a tinderbox. But maybe, maybe not. I don't know. So I guess the three of us haven't been together to talk about this yet, although we've each sort of talked separately and in little pairs on it. Tim, I'm a little bit in a place where I think things are worse than we thought, like, as of Sunday.
- [06:34]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I guess I have two thoughts, and I've been in, like, largely the interviewer chair mode, and so I've had a few things I've wanted to pop off on that I haven't really had a chance to get into on all this stuff. I think that. I guess I would say trying to read your mind. I think that they're prospectively worse about where we are going when it comes to some of the authoritarian aspiration elements of this, which you can get into. But the thing that is really bad that I'm really upset about that is just a little bit getting overshadowed by all of the kind of surrounding debates is just the actual performance of the immigration crackdown is horrible, and it really upsets me. And I'm the immigration lib on Here, jbl, you can be the capitalism lib. But it's ludicrous and un American and outrageous that we now have ice. Masked ICE officials going into cities without identifying themselves in federal vehicles, going in, like, targeting Hispanic workplaces, doing racial targeting at, you know, job sites, be they garment factories or construction sites or Home Depot or whatever. Going in there, taking people away, just based on assumption in some cases. I mean, they've. They've detained several American citizens that all happen to be. Sure have, um, and not going after violent criminals, not going after people that they have a deportation order for, that they're like, hey, so and so. You know, the judge said you overstayed your order. I have your. I have the information. I've come to get you. Not that just like indiscriminate raids. And they've layered onto that now in the last day, at least in California and maybe coming in Texas soon, that the. The National Guard and they have troops now providing, like, a protective circle around the ICE officials. So we have ICE officials going after unarmed, mostly undocumented immigrants, handcuffing them, throwing them to the ground, and they're protected by the military police. It is just a really offensive policy. It's something that. It does not feel American in any meaningful way. It's inhumane in the treatment of these people. It is intentionally trying to scare people. And it seems to be all at the direction of Stephen Miller's desire for fear in these communities. That's what he wants. And he has directed this based on reporting. And now we have agents of the state acting on it largely with impunity. And I don't know, even putting aside Trump wants to be an autocrat. It's gonna have a parade for himself. And Trump's overstepping the legal bounds with California. There are all those kind of debates that are happening, but just the narrow policy itself is something we knew was coming, but it is just extremely horrific to see in practice for me.
- [09:54]
JVL
And then another component to this, though, is that the government is not only going after people who may be of questionable legal status, but. But who are not criminals. It is also going out of its way to create more people of questionable legal status by revoking the. The, you know, like, for instance, Venezuela. And we. We believe they may be making moves against Ukrainians at some point, revoking student visas. So it isn't. It isn't just that they're going after people who are undocumented. They are also creating new classes of undocumented people from people who are law abiding yeah, right. I mean, this is, this is a, this is a self made crisis in many ways. And Sarah, where are you on the. Which, you know, on the DEFCON scale.
- [10:41]
Erin Andrews
Was this, was it last week just that we talked about Carol?
- [10:46]
JVL
Yeah.
- [10:46]
Erin Andrews
Or was it two weeks ago?
- [10:48]
JVL
I think it was last. It might have been two weeks ago.
- [10:50]
Erin Andrews
Okay, well, so we talked about Carol, the I believe, Missouri immigrant who had overstayed her visa, but had been living in this community for I think decades. And when she was arrested and rounded up, the townspeople sort of rallied to her. And I, I said, there I was like, I bet all these Trump voters raising the specter of her particular issue gets her out of it. And she did, she got released because they were all Trump voters. And so what's important to understand is that what's happening in LA is there's a whole bunch of Carols, right? There's a bunch of law abiding people who've been working there and living there and have been integrated into the economy under the longstanding tacit look the other way that America had sort of, it's the detente it had called with illegal immigration and so that's now being revoked. And the spontaneous anger that you're seeing in LA that is leading to the protests is the idea of all of these Carol type people getting grabbed off the streets by masked guards. And jbl, when we did our thing the other day where we were kind of debating the ephemera of how a protest happens and how does that impact optics, I think is an important conversation to be had, but I do think it tends to be oftentimes like the first refuge of people like us who are political analysts and even people who are trying to make a movement its best self so it can succeed. But I do think we glossed over a little bit. Why you get into Tinderbox territory is because you are sparking genuine outrage by what you are doing to people that people in that community care about. And so I wanted to bring back Carol because it felt like people could sort of understand the Carol story. Whereas you get, you go into LA and suddenly everybody's like, wow, I don't know, there's just all these people and you've gotta get them right.
- [12:58]
Tim Miller
And Adrian wrote about a case, a Carol esque case for us, like earlier in the week, you know, for his Huddle Masses newsletter. She was check out in la. It was the guy I don't have in front of me, but the guy was, he spoke to a woman who wanted to keep her name Anonymous. But she and her sisters, I, I believe were of legal status. Their dad was undocumented, worked in that garment factory in Down. And he's been to downtown la, knows kind of this garment district. And, you know, and he gets pulled out in one of these raids and they can't go see him, right? Like, they take him to the downtown holding cell where the protests are happening, so they don't let people through. And then they take him out to, I forget where, Santa Clarita or something, and they don't let her. And it's again. And to me, again, again, it's like, this is, this kind of treatment is wrong. It isn't. Like, I've gotten to a couple of fights with cons on social media over this recently with, like, well, they broke the law. Like, okay, but if somebody, you know, steals a candy bar from a grocery, from a, from a convenience store, we don't cut off their hands anymore, right? Like, there's, like, there's huge gap in, like, how we treat people.
- [14:05]
Erin Andrews
Like, there's proportionality.
- [14:07]
Tim Miller
Yeah, there's proportionality in law enforcement, right? And it's like, if this guy who's been here 27 years, if they're really adamant, then he should be deported. And it's like, okay, you can go in there and whatever, fine him, or give him a probationary status, or you could even say, hey, you've got two weeks to be deported. And we're. Or like, I don't know, even put a fucking ankle bracelet on him. I wouldn't be for that. Right? Like, there are just so many different, like, intermediary steps that could be taken. They're not taking it. They're trying to terrorize people. And there obviously is a direct connection between that and the reaction.
- [14:40]
Erin Andrews
And, and, and look, I think we all know it's not, doesn't take deep analysis to understand that Trump is trying to get a reaction. Right? And, and also, we should just go back really quickly to Stephen Miller, who the, the, the, I don't know, the center of this argument or the locus of it is they couldn't find enough criminals, right? Like, they, they, they did the deportation of the criminals, or they did. And like, Stephen Miller started yelling at everybody when they were like, well, sir, we've, we've pretty much done that for the people who, you know, had criminal status. They're, they're, they're gone. Or we've done this or whatever. We, some of them have.
- [15:16]
JVL
You grabbed some people and pretended they had criminal status by photoshopping tattoos onto.
- [15:21]
Erin Andrews
Them, and now they're languishing in an El Salvadorian gulag. But so Stephen Miller's like, go to Home Depot, go to the restaurants, go grab these people.
- [15:30]
JVL
And.
- [15:31]
Erin Andrews
And so that's what's happening. Like, they were told to do this. And for Trump, Trump gets giddy about this stuff because he says, ooh, do I get to call in the Marines now? Do I get to use physical force on American citizens who are protesting? Because we know from previous, during the Black Lives Matter protests that Trump wanted to shoot protesters. We know they gassed peaceful protesters. We all saw it. And they used the fact that some people were being violent, they set that church on fire. They use that as a pretense, tend to go after the peaceful protesters. And so, like, this is Trump's M.O. this is what he want, wants. And that doesn't mean that people shouldn't protest for real just because Trump wants it. But, like, that is where then you get into, I think, this touchy subject of how one protests to be maximally effective.
- [16:18]
Tim Miller
Just really quick, just real quick on the Trump wanting it thing, just as an exercise, as a thought exercise, if you went up to a MAGA person, like in D.C. and a mag elected official, you can you name the one you can think of one, and say, do you think Trump and J.D. vance and Stephen Miller are happy or upset about the riots in LA?
- [16:38]
JVL
Happy, yeah, 100% happy.
- [16:40]
Tim Miller
And they would even say it, I guess, is my point. Sometimes in these sort of situation, there's like a pretext or pretense, right, that, like, oh, you know, we really want to stop these rioting or looters. But, like, behind the scenes, like, I think this might be helping us, right? That happens in politics, right, where you're. You don't really want it. But what you're whispering behind the scenes, there might be a backlash that works to our favor. That's that there is no pretense here. Like they want. They're excited. Like, they are giddy about the. About any of it, but they would.
- [17:11]
JVL
Also be excited and giddy if there were no protests happening. Like, if it was just the Snatch squads pulling people off the street and doing, like, they, you know, giddy. They were giddy when they were putting out their ASMR videos of people in chains and there were no protests yet. Right? I mean, this is, you know, they're happy either way, because either way you have chaos and destabilization, and that is an environment in which they thrive. Right.
- [17:39]
Tim Miller
I think they're happier with the riots, but I hear you. They did like the ASMR videos, so.
- [17:45]
JVL
I, I would like to work through an idea here without committing to the idea myself.
- [17:52]
Tim Miller
Great.
- [17:53]
JVL
Can we do that? Sure. Where I'm not going to be responsible for saying the thing. I'm just asking questions.
- [17:59]
Tim Miller
I mean, I've got no control over what the people of the Internet will do with your comments, but, yeah, roll, roll with it.
- [18:09]
JVL
America voted for this. They voted for 20 million people to be deported. They knew or should have known that there are not 20 million criminals in America. And instead of trying to stop this cruel and inhumane and destructive policy, like with the tariffs, we simply ought to rub all of their noses in it and say, just endless videos of, like, pregnant women and fathers being snatched off the street and say, yep, this is it. This is what you wanted. Do you still want it? Is this what you wanted?
- [18:42]
Tim Miller
I'm pretty scared they do. So that's. I don't know that I. I would.
- [18:48]
Erin Andrews
Like for the touching.
- [18:49]
JVL
I'm just asking questions. This is my touching the stove thing.
- [18:52]
Erin Andrews
But the touching the stove question. I would like to have negative personal consequences for the people who voted for Trump, not the people who voted for Trump that they hate. Like, the consequences right now are the people that the Trump voters hate.
- [19:05]
Tim Miller
I mean, there are a handful of Trump voters getting consequences right now. Latinos for Trump crowd.
- [19:10]
Erin Andrews
Yeah.
- [19:10]
JVL
Like those people.
- [19:11]
Erin Andrews
Well, those people are just getting sads, though. They're just like, sad about it. Like, they're not. They are not experiencing, I don't know.
- [19:18]
JVL
Small business owners who, who rely on immigrant labor. Right. These people. I, I don't know, I want. I can. People. Construction firms, local.
- [19:29]
Tim Miller
You could sell me on this, I guess. Jbl, this comes to a fundamental thing about what they're doing, which is. You could sell me on this. If they were raiding hog factories.
- [19:40]
JVL
Yes.
- [19:40]
Tim Miller
And we're in Iowa. Right, Right, exactly. That's. That's too bad.
- [19:45]
JVL
Well, this is what they figured out. They figured out that they can localize the pain. They can localize the pain from touching the stove. And that is the velociraptor learning to open the door. Yeah, yeah.
- [19:56]
Erin Andrews
They're like, go to. Go to la, where there's a tradition of riots that America that made Americans feel uncomfortable. I mean, I heard Mike Johnson today when asked about January 6th versus this, like, why? And he was like. He immediately launched into a historical cataloging of riots in la.
- [20:15]
Tim Miller
Yeah. I will say, I think that there is potential for stove touching around red communities, because just like there aren't 20 million criminals. There aren't really 20 million undocumented in Libtown either. Like our economy is very integrated. There are a lot of things that get touched by this and I think that you also have the factor of like for example, Greg Abbott now has activated his National Guard and I'm sure he'll pick lib town areas to go support ice.
- [20:47]
Erin Andrews
Sure. Austin gets the first look.
- [20:49]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And yet, right. Like in Texas, like there are a decent amount of red areas now where there are a lot of undocumented immigrants. Right. Like, and it's not just like in Austin, you know, or downtown San Antonio or whatever. And so, and eventually, you know, you, if you are a governor or a prosecutor, U.S. attorney from one of these places, you want to butch up. You know, you got to start doing stuff too. Like it can't just be happening in LA for your personal political interests. So I think that potentially this gets into red areas in a way that becomes an issue. But man, not right now, I don't think.
- [21:30]
JVL
What about Carol's Missouri friends? So Carol's Missouri friends were upset because they were like this isn't what we meant. We didn't meant people. Are we saying that those people are incapable of understanding?
- [21:41]
Tim Miller
They don't have object permanence? I think you have to understand that the people of Missouri do not have.
- [21:45]
JVL
Obviously it can't be possible. These people are all very, very smart and they're good responsible citizens who are capable of self governance.
- [21:51]
Tim Miller
They don't have object permanence. Carol is back.
- [21:54]
JVL
Sarah, tell Tim that that can't be true.
- [21:57]
Tim Miller
Carol is in front of their face and so they don't care.
- [21:59]
Erin Andrews
I spend all the time JBL telling you exactly why it is true, true. Why the idea of knowing Carol personally animated them in a way that not knowing.
- [22:10]
JVL
Right. A bunch of seen it and they've seen that it happened to Carol and they know that Carol's a good person and not a criminal. And so they must also know that they're like, Carol isn't the only good person not a criminal in America. Right. Or are they not smart enough to understand that?
- [22:25]
Erin Andrews
This goes back to Tim's thing about proportionality, which I think when you say, when we say that these are people who have committed no crimes, their responses of course they did. They broke the law when they entered this country illegally. And so Tim's point I think is well taken in that. Okay, so the proportional response to that, especially understanding the long standing way in which we have sort of treated illegal immigration as a very misdemeanor violation because we actually had an economy that was dependent on it in many ways like that. This, this is just, this is completely out of proportion and it violates what I think is like a. A tacit contract that's been going on. But let me just say one more thing about proportionality just because it lets me work in a point about musicals. So Donald Trump is. Is. Is word Layman be back. Les Mis is here in. In Washington D.C. at the Kennedy center because it is Donald Trump's favorite musical. Now, as somebody who has seen les mis approximately 1000.
- [23:35]
JVL
Does he understand what it's about?
- [23:37]
Erin Andrews
I know the opening scene is. It's like he's like, you broke the law. I stole a loaf of bread. Like, the idea is that this guy got thrown in a like, sweat house jail to break rocks for eternity for stealing a loaf of bread. Literally the predicate of the entire musical is on.
- [23:57]
Tim Miller
It's Aladdin. Les Mis is like, is Aladdin. Les Mis.
- [24:01]
JVL
Trump understand who got.
- [24:03]
Tim Miller
I don't know any of the characters.
- [24:05]
JVL
In the French Revolution because was it wasn't people like who stand around outside the Home Depot looking for work. They aren't the ones who went to the guillotine. It was the guys who own $300 million private jets.
- [24:20]
Tim Miller
Right?
- [24:20]
JVL
Or does that just not. I think that's not it for the president.
- [24:25]
Tim Miller
Interesting. Maybe me and Trump can learn about it together. You know, if you enjoy putting back a few drinks every now and again, but you're a responsible adult with plans the next day, you know how hard it can be to bounce back with zebiotics. Pre alcohol probiotic drink. You got the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for the rough next days after drinking, pre alcohol produces an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. I was just in D.C. last week and I realized I didn't bounce back as easily as I used to. After shutting down the flower factory rave following our free Andree Live show was later than I'm usually up. We did get. I did get a. I noticed a Reddit thread commenting from some other elder millennials about how they and their friends aren't aren't going out as much as I am based on my Zebiotic ad reads. And I guess my response to that is Sorry for partying. Excuse me. I'm the one up every morning doing a live podcast, so if I can pull it off of Zebiotics, so can you. Summer is here, which means more opportunities to celebrate. So before that backyard barbecue, brew or glass of shard, watching the sunset or cocktail by the campfire, even though you know I don't camp, don't forget your Zebiotics pre alcohol drink one before drinking and wake up feeling ready to take on the next day and all that summer has to offer. Go to zebiotics.com nextlevel to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Next level at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with a 100% money back back guarantee. So if you are unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. That zebiotics.com next level for 15% off I have another thing. I don't, I don't know the, just off the like going back to your original question of things that worry you the most that that is and I talked to this a little bit with Mark Hertling this morning on the Daily but just because sensibly, because of his standing as a, as a veteran general, you know, I think he had to be a little bit more circumspect and, and talking about the, the rank and file soldiers than I would like to be right now. Because the other thing, in addition to the immigration raids that has me the most freaked out in the last 24 hours was the fucking hype rally at Fort Bragg yesterday.
- [26:56]
Erin Andrews
Yeah.
- [26:57]
Tim Miller
And I don't, and maybe and I don't know. And this is where JVL is going to be. Start to rub his nipples because like I'm going into a very JBL place. But I just am like those guys seem like they're going with Trump if they're going to a conflagration. Not that we're going to, not that, not whatever. Not that I'm necessarily predicting it, but when I just think about things I'm worried about and you've got troops on the streets. They've already been deployed. We're six months in and Trump is doing this fuck Joe Biden, fuck Gavin Newscomb, fuck the fake news. Yay Confederate generals. And I'm gonna do a YMCA chant and everybody, every soldier in the crowd is cheering for it. Like rabidly. I understand getting wrapped up in things I've cheer, I've jeered people.
- [27:48]
JVL
Joe Biden was the commander in chief five months ago.
- [27:51]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I, I don't know, man. That, that scene, I was watching that with a kind of dark foreboding this morning, I guess, is all I want to say.
- [27:59]
Erin Andrews
Yeah, can I, can we talk about that for just one second?
- [28:01]
JVL
Because I would like to talk about it for a lot.
- [28:03]
Erin Andrews
Okay. This idea of. So first of all, the reason that the crowd was 100% with Trump is because they screened the crowd for wrong.
- [28:14]
Tim Miller
Is that. Are we 100% sure about that? I'm not 100% sure about that. I think that was based on a Reddit, on a Reddit post from military folks. Hertling also thought that was true. And our friend Jane Coston reported that. I was texting Jane. I don't know if that's been 100%.
- [28:28]
JVL
Confirmed.
- [28:29]
Erin Andrews
Confirmed, confirmed. Okay, well, I'm glad you brought that up because you're right. This is like where you get things on the Internet. And I saw it shared by accounts.
- [28:36]
Tim Miller
That I, Yeah, credible accounts have shared it. I just, I, because I had hurtling on, I really spent like 30 minutes this morning trying to find the origin of that. And I, and I just, I don't. It wasn't Jennifer Griffin at Fox or something, you know, somebody that's like super, super sourced up. So it very well might be. And Hertling also suggested that he's heard that it is true.
- [28:56]
Erin Andrews
Okay, well, then I won't say what I was going to say, which is basically, these were selected to be people. But even so, I think then the next level of alarm is where are, like, there's, there's a few rungs up in the military. They should have commanders who are there to say, hey, you're going to hear the President, you should speak polite. You should clap politely at things, but at parts where he gets political. It is our job to sit there with neutral hands. And to me, it is the degradation of the protocols around the way the military is supposed. You. You're going to clap for the commander in chief? Like, that's not, it's not crazy to have. It is the hissing and the booing of the political opponents clapping for traders. Yeah. This is not, this is not how our military. It's not, it's not. It does not reflect the professionalism of our military. And so it should fill you with a sense of foreboding, because the professionalism of our military is what we rely on to keep us from not being a third world country.
- [29:59]
JVL
Our Buddy. Tom Nichols wrote a piece about this this morning, saying, like, we're the four stars. You know, there. There are no four stars who think this is a moment to maybe come out and say, hey, hey, guys, we don't do that. Well, this is like, we don't have, like, the Hatch. We have Hatch act violations taking place in. In the Oval Office with nobody even to even say the words Hatch act now is. Is to be, like a laughing stock. Right. And this is why we have those things, because you need all of these norms to keep things hemmed in, because it's all about keeping the guys with the guns on side. Because, as I always say, and people just, like, shake their heads at me, democracy only happens if the guys with guns decide to allow it. That's it.
- [30:50]
Erin Andrews
Not decide to allow it. Right. It's that we have a system that has many checks across many vectors. Like, that is too. That is too dark, what you just said, and I think. Not quite true, is it?
- [31:07]
JVL
I. I mean, I want to be convinced, but, like, isn't that how it maybe.
- [31:12]
Tim Miller
Maybe decide not to insurrect against it Might be a bore. I could have to be an active choice. It had to be an active choice to try to stop it, rather than a passive choice to let it be. As it would maybe be a more. A less alarming way to put it.
- [31:27]
JVL
But.
- [31:28]
Erin Andrews
Well, but the more alarming way. And the thing that I think is that you're really quickly getting into, I'm following orders from the commander in Chief. It is not that. It's not that those guys don't. It's that they would do it basically because the chain of command said, okay. Like, they're not. They're not insurrecting. They're not choosing.
- [31:47]
Sarah Longwell
It's.
- [31:48]
Erin Andrews
It's. They're. They are. They're professionally. Their professional ranks are telling them that it's okay. That's the collapse.
- [31:56]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And this is the thing that I can't get my head around, because I just. I don't come from military family, you know, like, I have friends that are in the military. And. And what. And I have had. But, you know, it's just culturally, it's a little bit separate from my experience. And so I'm like, I don't. Are there. Are there people in those middle rungs that you're talking about through the. And the. Tom Nichols is talking about? Are they just kind of like, okay, we're gonna kind of let this guy have his show? But, you know, when we're actually executing you Know, on, on these sort of orders, like we have a process and it's a little different. And are those guys kidding themselves when they do that? Or is that, or is there some truth to that? And, or on the other hand, I don't know, is most of the military, like, pretty happy to do whatever Trump wants? I don't, it's hard for me to kind of get a feel for that at this point. And I think that was the most alarming thing about the scene. There was just not like the cheer, like the raucous almost, you know, kind of cult like. And it was, it was a Trump rally. Like, if they had had a Trump rally in Birmingham, the tone would have been no different.
- [33:11]
JVL
Yeah, the, the answer to this is. And I think this is both true here, but also true historically, like everywhere, in all times, in all places, that in moments such as this, the enlisted elements.
- [33:25]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [33:26]
JVL
Are always with the authoritarian. Sure, almost always. But it's the officer corps who you rely on to be more professionalized and more committed to democracy and rules and laws and all that stuff.
- [33:39]
Tim Miller
I mean, they went to college and we do have a very big, you.
- [33:42]
Erin Andrews
Know, gap officer candidate school. Like, this is a thing that we do. This is why. And I say professionalized military. That's what I mean. And that's why I'm saying what is happening in the three rungs above that, that is breaking down. That's the part that alarms me is that the professionalized part seems to not be as activated as it once would have been. And just to your point on the generals though, and like, where are they? This is alarm. Like the idea that Mattis and a bunch of these guys couldn't speak out during the election because it was political. But they'll be silent in the face of this. This is a direct abuse. Like this is their lane. Like, okay, you, you felt like you couldn't talk in elections, but certainly you can talk about this. Certainly this is in your, within your purview professionally to talk about. So where are they?
- [34:36]
JVL
I don't know. I mean, maybe they're telling. And here, let me, let me, let me try. Maybe they're thinking you only get one shot to come out and stop something like this. And this isn't. Were like, you know, I'm not, I'm not going to try to stop this one. I got to wait till the big one. Which often we look at this and we say, oh, that's like self defeatist thinking that people shouldn't. But maybe in this case that is wisdom. I don't know the answer to that.
- [35:05]
Tim Miller
I also think it's not in their nature. I do. I just think that's a lot in these guys nature. I mean they've been, it's been a half century. Some of them have been in the military and protocols and being, you know, trained to be judicious in these sort of situations. I don't know, it's kind of a silly analogy. But like I think back at my working for Jon Huntsman when he left from being an ambassador three times and then trying to turn him into a presidential candidate and it was just like I would have had to brainwash him to be able to talk politics talk. Right. Like he was just conditioned to talk like a diplomat and may. And maybe that it's just that. But I hear you. I don't know, like it's just even a simple diplomatic statement that's like really, you know, the military, it's not appropriate for, you know, as we come up here for the military to be used for political rallies. Even something like that would be welcome.
- [36:01]
JVL
Well, we do have a giant parade happening which is going to be a political rally. Right? I mean this is again, I, how do you guys think that's going to play? How do you think all of this is going to play? I guess this is what, I'm sorry to sort of reduce this to like, you know, what do the polls say? We do have like one you got poll that we can talk about. But ultimately that is also the only thing that matters, right? The only thing that matters is what is the will of the people and are the people basically okay with it or are the people recoiling from all of this and basically.
- [36:37]
Tim Miller
Okay.
- [36:40]
JVL
Tell me more.
- [36:42]
Erin Andrews
Can I. This is without the risk of JVNL and I getting into our long standing fight. I'd just like to say this is one of the reasons why I hold most of my ire for the professional political class. And here's why. I think that the American public has not really seen tanks rolling down the streets, but it's not unused to for Memorial Day or whatever, seeing soldiers march, clapping for them, waving flags, it actually does require a professional political class that says, hey, we spent the last four years talking about why free speech is so important in this country. And to have Donald Trump roll tanks through the streets and before he does it, tell anybody who comes to oppose it or protest, they will be treated very roughly. And to threaten them. The absence of the free speech advocates in the face of that, the absence of your national reviews, your elite political class on the right, the failure of them to communicate why this type of thing is anti American, why it's grotesque, in fact, is why Americans often don't understand these like, the right understands they can come up with every rationalization because they've got a massive group of people willing to sort of sate their appetite for why the thing that they want to happen should happen. But there's a bunch of people who know how wrong this is and they don't say anything. And so the voters don't quite see why it's wrong. But there used to be a political class that could tell them why, and now they just won't because they're cowards.
- [38:31]
Tim Miller
Yeah, I'm, and I, who I, I guess I would say we're in an anything could happen space. I remember, I go back to like, I forget if it was election night or the day after election night where I was trying to like, articulate what I thought for TV in a way that was not alarmist, but not false hopeful, you know, And I was just like, look, I think that we have a, like, probably the widest range of potential outcomes over the next four years that we've ever had, right? Like, it could be the sum of all fears. He could just decide to golf, right? We did some of this in the pod, right? I feel that way kind of about Saturday, right? Like, I, I, I don't, I wouldn't put it past him. I think the smart thing to do if you're Trump is not wear any military regalia, not make it, you know, like, dress in a suit, go out there and watch the parade happen and do USA type stuff and do patriotic type stuff and then be like, watch the libs. Like, be like, look, aren't these guys crazy? Like, they, they said that fascist, they said that Kim Jong Un was coming. But I just love the troops in America, right? Like, that'd be the smart thing to do because of what you just said, Sarah, right? Like, it is un American. It's outside of our tradition, but it's not. So, you know, unless you're the type of person who is just congenitally, like, distasteful towards jingoistic scenes like this, which is some people. Like, you're not going to be mad about this, right? Unless something happens that makes you mad about it, right? And so to me, that's like, probably the most likely scenario that he feels like he gets his W. He's always wanted this parade. He can get to be happy birthday boy and he can make fun of, of the fake news for being you know, for clutching their pearls. But, like, it could, I mean, I think it could get way worse than that, but I think that's kind of the baseline outcome that I kind of expect.
- [40:27]
Erin Andrews
It does feel like we are in a bit of a tinderboxy moment, both because of the Saturday, like, there's going to be a counter protest. Like, there is a no Kings counter.
- [40:39]
JVL
Protest all across the country.
- [40:40]
Tim Miller
They're trying to make it not in D.C. which I think was wise to the photo.
- [40:43]
JVL
Yeah, totally agreeable.
- [40:44]
Tim Miller
Yeah, totally agree.
- [40:46]
Erin Andrews
But it's also then on top of the spontaneous protests related to immigration. And so it feels like we are either, either it will sort of peter out, because what Trump does doesn't spark the level of outrage, and it ends up feeling kind of like, okay, this is performative, but not disastrous, or everybody could lose their minds this Saturday. And by, by that, I mean protesters rightly protest the idea of Trump doing this. Trump uses it as an excuse to crack down, which is, this is the playbook now, and things go sideways fast.
- [41:28]
JVL
I, I mean, I've been sort of hinting at this and talking about it obliquely for many months now, but one of the things that makes me very nervous is that I believe that in a very deep level, Donald Trump wants his own Kent State. And he views Kent State not as an American tragedy, but is a fantastic show of strength.
- [41:53]
Tim Miller
Your evidence. He knows what happened at Kent State, I guess, would be my first question.
- [41:57]
JVL
Oh, yeah, I'm sure. But I'm sure his version of it is they shot the hippies.
- [42:01]
Tim Miller
Yeah, okay.
- [42:02]
JVL
Right. I mean, it's, I, I, I, I would be willing to bet that that is one of his formative political memories and that he thinks it's great. And this is, I mean, he's, he's talked about shooting protesters over and over. Like, it is a, it is a, a theme to which he has returned to publicly on many occasions. And we have reports of the private conversations he's had with members of the military and people in his cabinet over the years. And I don't know, like, the truth is, if the President of the United States wants to get to a place where he has the military open fire on American citizens, he's going to. Right. It isn't, it isn't the case that, like, oh, if Americans are just really, really good and they really, they're super, like, then they can have, they can stop. No, like, he'll, we'll get there. Like, if that's, if that's what he wants, we'll get There. My God, we're only four and a half months in, right?
- [42:58]
Tim Miller
Five and a half.
- [42:59]
JVL
Are we five? Five and a half. I mean, I, I just. There is so much room out in front of us.
- [43:08]
Tim Miller
You're right. Four and a half.
- [43:09]
JVL
Like the, the horizon on this is. I mean, that is the thing. Do you see what I'm saying? Like our, our ability to see over the horizon here is so blank because there's so much room, so much road left to travel.
- [43:21]
Tim Miller
Yeah.
- [43:23]
JVL
And I don't know, it might.
- [43:24]
Erin Andrews
I mean, it was just last Friday, I mean, like six days ago, we were practically giddy over Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the worst public fight ever.
- [43:36]
JVL
Let's talk about.
- [43:37]
Erin Andrews
I just take Tim's serious point and just tell you one little piece of personal privilege, which is at Kenyon, the freshman dorm that I lived in was built right after the Kent State riots because also an Ohio school. And so as a result it like zigged and zagged, right? So this freshman hall, and they were like. So we were all told they were like, they built them to be riot proof so they weren't in straight lines. But it was just all. Whenever somebody says Kent State, all I think about are all the drunk freshmen bouncing off the walls because they were not because they did zig and zag.
- [44:07]
Tim Miller
I guess I would add one more point also just listening to jvl because I just had to say this because I'm going to go out and protest. People should go out and protest on Saturday. They. They want a pretext, though. So don't throw shit at them. You know, just friendly advice.
- [44:22]
JVL
Film everything.
- [44:23]
Tim Miller
Don't fucking throw shit at.
- [44:24]
Erin Andrews
Don't throw anything.
- [44:25]
Tim Miller
Yeah, right.
- [44:26]
JVL
Don't throw anything. Film everything.
- [44:27]
Erin Andrews
Don't break anything.
- [44:29]
Tim Miller
Throwing, I think is bad because that's what. And they want a Michael Brown situation. You know what I mean? Like, they want. Yeah, they want something where they can do it. You know what I mean? That's Trump's ideal, right? Like where you do it in an environment where it's like, well, oh, we supposed to. They threw the frozen water bottle at us or whatever.
- [44:43]
JVL
And it doesn't matter how much video you have of cops just like casually lining up to shoot a reporter with a rubber bullet. Right? And you know, you find one instance of, of a case where it's because somebody threw a frozen water bottle and then everything's. Anyway, before we move on to Elon, we do have some polling suggesting that the immigration crackdown stuff is unpopular. The, the masking of ICE agents Super unpopular. And even the big beautiful bill, fairly unpopular. I mean big beautiful bill, I think it's like 30% approved, 50 disapprove. The masks are really unpopular. I want to say it's like 70, 30 or 80, 20. And he's underwater on the deportation stuff in the YouGov poll. Is any of that. I feel weird being the one being.
- [45:37]
Tim Miller
Like, I don't know, I don't believe the immigration stuff and I want to wait and let it play out. I don't know, I was like, I've seen there was an LA poll that was in playbook or whatever somebody's pushing, I forget which one it was that was like positive. But then I saw another one today that some of the maggots were pushing those negative. I, I don't know, I want to wait on the immigration stuff. It is, it just confirms like my priors and what you would expect that people would not support masked unmarked feds. You know, there's a, there's a portion of the Trump base that is excited about that, but there's also a portion of the Trump base that is anti state, you know, and that, that like it's not cool. So I would, I'm not surprised that that's unpopular and I think the Democrats should talk about that. And, and I do think the BBB is, I'm not surprised that that's unpopular and, and that, you know, it was like a 20 point gap or something. But none of these things have, or like besides the maths are like 70 opposed. Like even the BBB thing, which is a good poll, it's like 50% opposed. But that just means like that the Commonwealth voters plus a handful of other people are opposed and the Trump voters are mixed, you know, like, which is fine, which is good, but it's not, you know, it's not augering like a, some huge backlash either.
- [46:47]
Erin Andrews
And the thing I'd be careful about with the LA polling at least is I remember in the Black Lives Matter protests they were extremely popular up front and they got increasingly unpopular as time went on and chaos went on. As the weather warms up, you might want to rethink your skin care routine, especially if you're using retinol, which can leave your skin more vulnerable to sun damage. So here's why I'm switching to One Skin's facial moisturizer OS One Face. This summer in lab studies, OS One Face boosted collagen production, similar to retinol, but without the sun sensitivity risk, which is good, good because you're going to Be in the sun this summer. And unlike retinol, which can disrupt your skin barrier, OS one Face strengthens. It helps your skin become even more resilient to the sun, heat, pollution, and other types of environmental stressors. The key is One Skin's patented OS1 peptide. It works by targeting the signs of aging at the cellular level, something retinol can't do. In fact, it's the first peptide scientifically proven to reverse skin's biological age. So instead of irritating your skin like other topicals can, you're helping your skin look, feel, and act like its younger self. Get stronger, smoother, and healthier skin this summer with One Skin, I'm spending a lot more time in the sun nowadays. See, I'm going to baseball games and hanging out with JBL in the sun, and I do not need it to be wreaking havoc on this face. I've got four podcasts a week to do. That's why I have made OS1 face a key part of my routine. OS1 works at the cellular level to improve key aging biomarkers while reducing the visible signs of aging, including lines, wrinkles, and sagging skin. One Skin is the world's first skin longevity company. By focusing on the cellular aspects of aging, One Skin keeps your skin looking and acting younger for longer. For a limited time, you can try one skin with 15 off using code thenextlevel@oneskin co. That's 15 off oneskin co with code the next level. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. Give your skin the scientifically proven gentle care it deserves with One Skin.
- [49:03]
JVL
All right, so let's talk a little. Elon. Today we. Or maybe it was last night. Elon. It was both.
- [49:10]
Tim Miller
It was at 3:04am east in the East.
- [49:12]
JVL
Oh, great. So after having deleted his many of his mean tweets, tweets alleging things like that Donald Trump was a pedophile and that the truth would come out and etc. Etc. He deleted a bunch of those and. And de escalated while Trump kept hitting him and he rolled over and presented his little pink belly. And now he says that, you know, he said he said some things that he shouldn't, shouldn't have said and that he regrets, he didn't say they were.
- [49:44]
Erin Andrews
Untrue, only that he shouldn't have said them.
- [49:47]
JVL
Well, so I guess I. What do you guys think of this? I mean, I just take it as total victory for Trump.
- [49:54]
Tim Miller
Yeah. Can I offer a theory of Elon that is just like, Elon is just a person in the world who is extremely unhinged and who is negatively polarized by the stuff that is in front of him in any minute. Like, he is just your classic Kanye. What?
- [50:16]
JVL
He is Kanye just with more money.
- [50:19]
Tim Miller
Yeah. And, or, or like I was gonna say, like a swing voter who votes based on negative polarization. Like, not because they're for anything, but because they're mad at one side and they're mad at the other side and then they're mad at one side. Like, that's just Elon, but it's just supercharged because, like, he's gassed up on, on ketamine and other stuff, allegedly. And, and, and posting at all hours of the night and addicted to his phone. But like, to me, what happened, I think the easiest explanation is that he didn't get what he wanted on the bbb. He was annoyed that he's getting blamed on Doge stuff. He was negatively polarized against Mike Johnson and Trump and, and them on this, on, on. On the criticism of him over Doge. And he wanted to get back at them and he did. And then his endorphins were flying and he's just like, like chain smoking cigs and snorting shit and just like posting, just wanting more and more endorphins. And then it fell down and then the riots happened and he remembered, oh, right, I'm negatively polarized against the Libs because I don't like them now, you know, because I do like state power and America and try, you know, and so now he's like, posting American flags about the ICE agents deporting people he doesn't like. And I just, I kind of think he's probably just going to vacillate back and forth on that for a while. I don't know. I think that there's like, a tendency to want to create some sort of theory of power around this or theory of like, gamesmanship or what's happening behind the scenes financially. And I think he's just like, emoting, raw emoting.
- [51:49]
JVL
Sarah.
- [51:50]
Erin Andrews
I think there is an enormous amount of truth to that, and I think it's probably pretty close to the truth. I think the part that I would add, though, is like, the ripple effects of what Elon does sets into motion tons of machinations from all these sort of professional political class. And so it's not without consequence. And I do think the number of people who have sought to a get him calmed down, including the business owners who are like, you cannot be in this Open contestation with the President of the United States. Like, I do think people are bringing something to bear on him. I also think if he sobered up and looked at the threats that Trump was posing and said, actually, his guns are bigger than my guns. My guns can be annoying to them, but his can be like, devastating and catastrophic to me. This isn't worth it. You know, I think there's some of that. Trump is threatening to pull all of his contracts. So I just. Yeah, I just think there's that too. Like, that there were consequences for Elon and he basically caved. I think he could have made real trouble for Trump for a much longer period of time and he decided not to.
- [53:03]
Tim Miller
He still might. I guess what I'm saying, he still might. Something else could happen that triggers his little. Whatever. He's erratic.
- [53:10]
Erin Andrews
The fact I do want to.
- [53:12]
JVL
Once you submit, don't you tend to stay submitted? Isn't this how, like, alpha. Alpha dog relationships work in the animal kingdom? No, no.
- [53:20]
Erin Andrews
Well, I don't know about. In the animal kingdom, but I just think the idea of somebody who is this erratic staying, like, all kinds of things could change over the period of time. He could get mad because here's. Here's part of it is what you've seen is a bunch of staff and political people who understand how to vaguely manage the egomaniacal swings of a raging narcissist jumped in. And they probably figure how in the short term to placate Elon, get him back to the table, get everybody playing nice again, calm things. But, like, there will be. Tim's right. There'll be more things that cause people to all go nuts again.
- [54:00]
Tim Miller
I agree with you, JBL in general, but we're dealing with a drug addled megalomaniac. You don't think that. And who just posts at all hours of the night. You don't think that he could just like, see something that makes him.
- [54:11]
Erin Andrews
Which one of them are you describing?
- [54:13]
Tim Miller
Elon Musk.
- [54:14]
Erin Andrews
No, I know.
- [54:15]
JVL
I mean, here's another question. Do you think Elon, like, at some point looked over his shoulders and realized that there was nobody standing behind him? It was cat turd. And that's about it. Like the rest of.
- [54:27]
Tim Miller
I don't think it was even captured. I think it was Ian Miles Chong.
- [54:30]
JVL
The free speech people, the bari weisses of the world. They didn't stand up and go, how dare the President of the United States threaten to take away the contracts of Elon Musk just because he's using speech. This is. This is absolutely not one that that didn't happen. Right. I mean do you think he realized that like all of like the tech guys are not with him?
- [54:56]
Erin Andrews
I don't even know that kind of with him. They were kind of.
- [54:59]
Tim Miller
This is where the, the hilarious forced to choose.
- [55:03]
JVL
He would choose Trump or Elon. Serious question right now.
- [55:06]
Tim Miller
Trump. And like we know the answer to this. Like so just, just using the all in Sarah. Got to do a Kenyan reference. I get to talk about the all in podcast as my point of personal privilege which is that, you know, the podcast with the Elon Tech bros, there are four of them. And, and, and they've all, you know, kind of move more towards Trump at different levels. David Sacks being the most Trumpy, having gone in to work for him as his AI Czar. But they reportedly taped upon maybe two podcasts last week. Bannon claims they taped an interview with him and then they taped a podcast discussing the Elon Trump drama and they killed both. So like they didn't post them coming. In Elon's defense, they didn't post them like as you know, talking about how it is outrageous that the president they come to support would go after Trump.
- [55:57]
JVL
Donald Trump was going to cancel Elon Musk just for saying things on Twitter. He's going to cancel him, Tim.
- [56:03]
Tim Miller
So I do think that Elon felt like he didn't have a ton of folks in his corner. I also just think just to say what a wuss move, what a beta coward move to not post that podcast. And anti. In the spirit of being a content creator in a podcast host, let me tell you, if we get out of this mess in 2028, the Democratic nominee gets into a Twitter fight with Liz Cheney and starts talking about how the Never Trumpers are terrible and Liz Cheney is awful. We will post the fucking podcast.
- [56:30]
Erin Andrews
Yes, we will.
- [56:31]
Tim Miller
We will post the podcast. Okay. I am not going to be cow into not posting just because, you know, two folks that we like are fighting. I'll tell, I'll tell you that much.
- [56:46]
JVL
Believe it or not, there's more bad stuff happening. The Secretary of Health and Human Services dissolved the vaccine board this week, prompting a couple Republican senators to get very upset. I want to read to you an exchange that a reporter had with Senator Bill Cassidy who had had held Robert F. Kennedy Jr. To the promise that he would not touch the vaccine.
- [57:14]
Tim Miller
Dr. Bill Cassidy.
- [57:16]
JVL
Dr. Bill Cassidy. I'm just going to read. Burgess Everett here just had a very brief conversation with Senator Cassidy. I asked if RFK Jr had reassured him, quote, I'd Rather just characterize it as we had a conversation. I also asked him if he was still comfortable with his vote confirming RFK Jr I'd rather not comment on that, said Foghorn Leghorn. Then we also had the Senator from Maine. Susan Collins says that it seems, quote excessive to ask for everybody's resignations, quote, generally I think vaccine and other advisory committees are very helpful to the public. So to cancel all the people or cancel the meetings raises serious questions. Do you think she can hear herself? Does she, does she understand that she is a self parody or does that not, and this is a real question, does she understand that when people look at her, the people who hate her, that when they look at her they think that this is a woman who would look at that and say, boy, it raises serious questions. And then she just says, oh, it raises serious questions. These people.
- [58:35]
Erin Andrews
I think you should be angrier at Bill Cassidy than Susan Collins.
- [58:39]
JVL
Why do I have to choose?
- [58:41]
Erin Andrews
Yeah, actually I'll tell you why. I'll tell you why. Susan Collins. Well, I'm going to do a separate rant in just a second about moderate Republicans. What are they good for? Nothing. And I can actually use Bill Cassidy. Here's the thing, Bill Cassidy staked his credibility on this particular thing. This was a red line for him and his response to that red line being crossed is a mealy mouthed. And here's the thing about the way that Kennedy put it that has struck me. He said we needed to get rid, we needed to fire everybody and make sure that we didn't have people that had a pro vaccine or an anti vaccine bias. Okay, now that sounds, that might sound to just somebody's virgin years like yes, you wouldn't want somebody to be too pro or too anti vaccine.
- [59:39]
Tim Miller
False.
- [59:40]
Erin Andrews
Actually the vaccine committee should be pro vaccine. Like it doesn't, doesn't mean really that you can't evaluate whether or not a vaccine is called for. But you don't become anti vaccine or vaccine neutral. These are people who are like no, I understand vaccines understand what they do. And I'm here to evaluate whether or not, you know, risk versus reward, like all the things doctors do. The idea that you shouldn't have people who are on it as people. Pro vaccine is giving away the game from the jump. It is scary and bad and Bill Cassidy should be humiliated. I think actually one of the big faults of Democrats in moments like this is to be like, well Bill Cassidy, it's kind of one of the good guys, not a bad guy. You can talk to him, you can deal with Him. No, light this guy up. It is his fault. It is his fault. And then you want to go to Susan Collins. Here's the thing. Sometimes we get asked the question, what have you changed? On them most, like, what have you changed? And I'm often kind of like, I don't know that I've changed that much in terms of my political positions. I mean, there's some, like, things here and there. I've certainly changed. I mean, a lot of it is that Trump changed the Republican Party into something deeply unrecognizable. But I'll tell you a place where I've changed quite a bit, which is that six or seven years ago, I did not think Susan Collins should be primaried in 2020. I thought that you really needed to continue to have moderate Republican voices in the party. That was important to me. It was like, it animated me. Like we couldn't let all of these guys get run out. And I think that's wrong now. I didn't. I, I still. I would defend myself from doing it back then. Some like. I can see why I thought that. But right now, all they're doing is giving cover to people. No, Susan Collins should lose her race because she has. What is the point of a suit? There's no point. No point in having a Bill Cassidy or a Susan Collins when the outcome is the same. And this idea that they're going to, what, stand up at the critical moment, if that critical moment wasn't confirming Cash Patel and confirming Tulsi Gabbard and confirming RFK Jr then the moment isn't there. If they're not going to speak up with the ICE raids and they're not going to, like, they don't. They don't matter. They're not doing anything. They're just providing cover by looking reasonable, like, reasonable front people for a party that has lost its mind. So get them out of there.
- [61:57]
Tim Miller
Very little, Dad. I don't, like, I don't understand what the point is of Bill Cassidy being in the Senate. And I would love to hear what his answer to that is. And I don't think he's gonna be in the Senate that much longer because some mega freak's gonna. Gonna beat him next time if he even decides to run. So I don't. It's really shameful. He knows better.
- [62:14]
Erin Andrews
All right.
- [62:15]
Tim Miller
Shameful.
- [62:15]
JVL
Well, let me, Let me ask another question again. I'm not. I'm just thinking things through in real time with you guys. That's what we do here. We don't. This isn't Cable, where we do Kabuki theater where people are booked specifically because of the. Everybody knows what they're gonna say and they're all playing parts. This is, this is different. This is authentic.
- [62:36]
Tim Miller
I'm excited to hear this.
- [62:37]
JVL
An argument could be made that it is good that we did not get taco on vaccines. This is what the President ran on. This is what Robert F. Kennedy has promised people. And the fact that they're going to get to impose their program on America and not have some grownup there preventing them from doing bad things, which would then allow people to say, oh, look, everything was finally like, look, RFK was head of Health and Human Services and nothing changed. Everything was fine. So it's okay. We should listen to freaks like him because they aren't actually freaks. Maybe they just had a valuable perspective. Maybe it's good that we don't get a taco trade here and that we get the straight dope. America should. America voted for this. They should get it.
- [63:34]
Tim Miller
The ED being measles, mumps and rubella or.
- [63:38]
JVL
I mean, I just like to think they should get the, the intellectual benefit of experiencing the consequences of their choices without the paternalism of some internalism.
- [63:52]
Tim Miller
You're selling me on this.
- [63:53]
JVL
They're putting bumpers around them and trying to protect them from the things they asked. Because I think that's, that's really, that's, that's paternalism. And I, I respect people too much to. To want that for them.
- [64:06]
Erin Andrews
Yeah. I can get behind this on the economy in some way on, like, look, here's the thing about communicable. Communicable diseases. Am I saying that word right?
- [64:14]
Tim Miller
I don't think so, but that's.
- [64:18]
Erin Andrews
Communicable. Communicable. The words lost all meaning. The thing about that, those kinds of things is they don't just know who voted for Trump. Right. I don't want my kids to get the measles. I don't want. And now, granted, they do have their vaccines, but, like, I do not want to live in a country where we decide to basically sacrifice everyone to these diseases because we let a quack talk us out of science.
- [64:46]
JVL
The economy. Right. I mean, all sorts of. If the economy gets wrecked, a lot of people who didn't vote for Trump, who didn't want this are going to get hurt. They're going to see that. Right. If, like, bad outcomes, there is no way to. Unless you're doing it intentionally, the way Trump is, by targeting, like, Democratic areas for immigration enforcement. Right.
- [65:06]
Erin Andrews
I feel differently about, like, the country going into a recession and this being something that we have to contend with versus children getting measles.
- [65:18]
Tim Miller
Economy is more of a broad based thing. Only a handful of people get measles or something. You know there's some hi, I'm Richard.
- [65:24]
Sarah Longwell
Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new Pocket hose Copperhead with Pocket Pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what an exciting radio exclusive offer just for you. For a limited time. You can get a free pocket pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64 000. That's water to 64000 for your two free gifts with purchase w a t e r to 64000 by texting 64000.
- [66:17]
JVL
You agree to receive recurring automated marketing.
- [66:19]
Sarah Longwell
Messages from Pocket Hose. Message and data rates may apply. No purchase required. Terms apply. Available to pocket host.com terms did you.
- [66:23]
E
Know that over 504 million people listen to podcasts every day, just like you? That's a lot of new customers. With Audio Hook, you can tap into the power of podcasting to reach the right listeners and find your next customer. The Audio Hook platform is designed to make podcast advertising simple and results driven. The best part? You don't pay upfront for placements or impressions. You only pay when your campaign delivers the results you want. Whether that's more site visits, leads or or sales. That's right, you only pay for results. Audio Hook uses advanced technology to ensure your message connects with your target audience. Campaigns are optimized in real time so you can track success and adjust strategies instantly. With Audio Hook, you'll maximize your spend and achieve your business goals faster. Get started today and take your business to the next level in 2025. To learn more about how Audio Hook can help you achieve your desired results, visit audiohook.com results that's audiohook.com results Some.
- [67:25]
JVL
Good news in New Jersey yesterday, across the Hudson from me, Mikey Sherrill, who is a fantastic, fantastic gal and a good representative and the type of Democrat that the Bulwark loves. Not that the Bulwark makes endorsements, but, you know, like, we would build her in a lab like Serpentor. And I wrote about her yesterday and I, I got the sense even as I was writing it that what I was saying was wrong. But I couldn't stop myself. And then when I went to go look through the comments, I saw the top comment on it was from Tim saying, this is pure uncut JVL and I love it, but it is the most wrong thing I've ever read. And so I would like to have a struggle session in which you two who are political professionals explain the birds.
- [68:18]
Tim Miller
Can I just add a little context to this, just for listeners? Just so two I just got. It's one. JBL is referring to a newsletter where he argued that rather than in blue states, Democrats, rather than saying that they should solve the housing crisis and try to lower housing prices, which is going to be very challenging to do, particularly in a state like New Jersey, given a lot of economic factors and various environmental factors, it's, it's going to be challenging to really do it. Rather than saying that Democrats should be like, actually, blue states are awesome and the reason why it costs a lot is because it's so awesome here. And if you don't like it, you should move to Alabama where the schools are terrible and the houses are cheaper and everyone around you is a dick. And there's something to be said for that.
- [69:06]
JVL
Yes. Okay, I would vote for that candidate. That candidate gets my vote.
- [69:11]
Tim Miller
That was JBL's argument. Argument. I, I don't, you know what, I'm sorry.
- [69:16]
JVL
Also, also, they should crotch chop while saying that. Yeah, it has to be.
- [69:23]
Tim Miller
It's not that there's some truth to that, but I guess the counter argument would be that a lot of people in New Jersey are unhappy about the fact that housing prices are very high and rents are very high and that as a candidate, maybe you should focus on the things that you could do to help them. And Donald Trump never really got hurt for promising things and not delivering on them. And some of that is a little bit of politics. And, and, you know, maybe there are things you could deliver on, such as, you know, more housing and particularly in areas near transit, near the train stops, etc. Which might be a more traditional solution than JBLs. And I guess my final point is, I would say, I think that JBL's advice was particularly bad for Mikey Shearrell, who went on to win the primary handily yesterday, which I want to talk about in a second. You could almost sell me on the fact that like a heel candidate could do well in a blue state. I don't, I'm not sure about this. Like, if there was a really strong performer who like got into a Democratic primary and was just like, I'm here to do violence and I'm here to like, just be the best troll of red America and Trump and I'm going to be your, you know, the hate that you have inside of you manifested in a person. Could that person win a primary somewhere? Maybe. I don't know. Maybe I actually am not close to that idea.
- [70:49]
JVL
It works on the other side.
- [70:50]
Tim Miller
What?
- [70:51]
JVL
It works on the other side.
- [70:52]
Tim Miller
On the other side. Right. It does. It just, it was, it was bad advice for Mikey. Sheryl, that's not her nature. She's a mother, a Navy, a fighter pilot, kind of a. Just sort of a middle of the road type person temperamentally, like, would not, you know, I think you're forcing something on like a skin suit onto her that would not fit very well. Sure. My. And, and well, sir, do you want to weigh in on that before I talk about the primary results broadly?
- [71:17]
Erin Andrews
Well, only that I would just say, like, this has been. They made a movie about JBL's tactics here. It's called Bulworth. This idea of like, I'm just going to tell the voters to go F themselves. And I tell, no, you can't solve your problems. And like, then he becomes wildly popular. Like, and I was like, like when I was reading this, I was like, it, it is bananas political advice, what JVL was doing there. And in fact, there was a second half to our, to like the secret show we did on Monday where he and I talked about this and I was so caught off guard by his, his analysis that like, we ended up killing it because I was. We went on a whole long boring tangent about the. Whether or not you can actually do anything at the margins around housing prices, which I of course think you do. And also just if you extrapolate JBL's theory of nothing can be done about this, all you dumb asses. I'm like, this is sort of when he does, all people are terrible. And so. And we're all just screwed. And I'm like, well, why don't we just give up? Then I'll take off my headphones and we'll go. We'll just let's just all go walk into the ocean. Why don't we like, what's the point of having a politician?
- [72:22]
JVL
So what I did say is that she should, she should focus on the things that as a governor, she really could impact act, which is raising wages. That's the right. You can't make housing as a positional good in a highly dense.
- [72:35]
Erin Andrews
This is where we got in this fight.
- [72:37]
Tim Miller
Positional good. You've said positional good.
- [72:39]
Erin Andrews
Yeah. And I just don't think this is true. Like, people make good for a substance.
- [72:44]
Tim Miller
Good newsletter writing. It's good material, the content. There was nothing wrong with the, you know, the way you formatted the argument, the words that were used.
- [72:51]
Erin Andrews
No, but I'm sorry, this is the problem purview of politicians all the time. Politicians literally make things about like, are we going to revitalize the wharf in Baltimore and build tons of housing? Like, it's at the center of what politicians do. I like, don't even understand the argument that you're making.
- [73:08]
JVL
My argument is that isn't it? Doesn't it? Here, let me frame this as an, as a real question. Does it hurt politicians to promise a thing that they, when elected, don't deliver because they can't?
- [73:23]
Erin Andrews
Did Donald Trump build a wall?
- [73:25]
JVL
So, and maybe the answer is no. Except that Wade also heard. I had heard, not from you guys, but part of the reason that America turned to Trump was because so many politicians had promised Americans things and not delivered them that they were decided to.
- [73:40]
Erin Andrews
That's not why.
- [73:40]
JVL
Okay.
- [73:41]
Erin Andrews
That's a straw man. That's the real reason. Is that because Joe Biden was 1,000 years old?
- [73:46]
JVL
No, no, no. In 2016. In 2016. No, no. In 2016. This was one of the 2016 rationales of Trump was, well, you know, all these politicians keep promising things and it never. And that's why they turned to somebody new, somebody who was willing to burn it all down.
- [74:01]
Tim Miller
I think the reelection eight years later, after he didn't do anything kind of localized, that.
- [74:06]
JVL
Look, if the answer is no downside to not delivering on your promises, that's fine. But to have the number one issue on your campaign be something that I am telling you four years from now, housing prices are not going to go down in New Jersey. And if they do go down, everybody's going to freak the fuck out because 63% of the people in New Jersey own their homes. And if the value of their homes go down, they're going to be deeply unhappy.
- [74:30]
Erin Andrews
This is what's interesting to me about jbl JBL is our house lib to some degree. Right. Tim and I much more squishier center. Right folks? But like even I would be like, I don't know, you could probably build some more low income housing. Right. This is a thing that oftentimes cities do with densely populated areas in large part because you end up control. No, I'm not asking for rent control. I'm not, I'm not. What I am saying is that most cities, what they start to understand is in order to service all of the people who are in this higher income bracket, there needs to be basically like a set of workers who can also afford to live there. This is what happened in San Francisco. Nobody could afford to live there because there was no low income housing. And Right. It's still like this. This is a crisis that politicians. It is actually the purview of politics to try to figure out how to solve this.
- [75:21]
Tim Miller
We're getting to the boring part of the secret podcast again. I agree with Sarah. I want to talk about the primary results writ large though, because I do think it tells us something. So she, Mike ends up with about 34, 35%.
- [75:34]
Erin Andrews
You know, when it's all said polling basically in line.
- [75:36]
Tim Miller
Yeah, basically state level. The even more, I think I just think it's worth noting the like explicitly mod candidate Josh gottheimer. So she's like moderate temperamentally, but it's like basically just a normie Democrat. Like Josh got him. It was like, like the hippie punching candidate. Right. Got another, I think 12 or 13, you know, so that gets you up to almost half really between the two of them. And on these state wide races, I think it's different in cities, it's different in congressional districts. But on these statewide races, time and again the Democrats do continue to turn to the most normie candidate. And I think that there was some discussion even on this podcast and elsewhere about whether that might start to change and whether it might not start to change maybe either ideologically or just temperamentally, you know, that it's not really that they just want somebody that is like the most in your face or that they want somebody more left. Like I thought either of those could conceivably happen. And so we just have our first data point that like the basically Biden Democratic coalition within the Democratic primary electorate of older black people, former, you know, swing voters, security moms, former Republican swing voters and just kind of normie Democrats that probably watch the news but are not like posting angrily constantly on blue sky that is still like a plurality at Least but probably majority coalition and like the idea that there's going to be some big Tea Party wave driven by lefty Dems or just by enraged Rachel Maddow viewing Dems. That has not materialized. At least we have one piece of evidence that that is not material lost, I guess is all I'm saying.
- [77:23]
Erin Andrews
So I, I, I would like that to be true. I, I'm going to take just a slightly, ever so slightly more negative view of this than Tim, which is that Mikey Sheryl got 34%, got heimer. I think when all said and done got 11%, maybe close to 12. So that puts you at 45. Okay. So it's pretty good. I will say the guy who and and JVL wrote his newsletter in part off the focus group pod that I did with Amy Walter where we went deep on this. And actually after the election last night I had a bunch of people being like Sarah, your focus groups were wrong because they didn't seem to like Mikey Sheryl. Actually we were extremely explicit in the podcast.
- [78:04]
JVL
They did like her.
- [78:06]
Erin Andrews
Many of them were like, yeah, she's fine. But they were like tempted by the fighter candidates. Specifically Ross Baraka who was, got, got sort of extra famous because he was arrested by an ICE detention facility. Okay. And like that was a whole thing in the state that kind of raised his profile. And we made it clear that we had screened for voters who were extra tapped in to the primary which meant that they were more of the hyper partisans. Right. And so we were clear about that in the podcast, so stop saying it. And we were like do not take this as predictive. And we also said we still thought Mikey Sheryl was the favorite in part because what you had here, and this is where I'm not like the Republicans have the inverse of this, but this was a six way race. Six way race. I thought the, the most interesting and the thing that I was the most excited about was seeing Sean Spiller who they spent, the teachers unions spent $40 million to try to bolster him. He gets 10%. And New Jersey teachers should be mad that that's how their dues were being spent. You should be annoyed about that. But I still think it's, it's kind of even. And I think the fact that Ras Baraka came in second with 20% is, I don't think that it's what we are talking about. This tension is not happening. Like I do think that.
- [79:30]
Tim Miller
Well, I'll go ahead to finish and then I'll give my thought.
- [79:33]
Erin Andrews
Well, I think that the Main thing was, I also think that the thing that had the Dems really spooked though is electability. Like they are worried about the big swing that they saw in New Jersey to the right and they want to make sure that they had somebody who could beat. And so it's funny how I think sometimes the moderation when it comes to the vote, when people are expressing their desires. This is what happened to Joe Biden, right? People, their hearts are sort of with Elizabeth Warren, but their sense of political calculus was with Joe Biden. And I think the same thing happened here maybe a little bit.
- [80:13]
Tim Miller
I don't think any of that was actually in contrast with what I was saying because I guess my point was that the Joe Biden model is still operative right now. Like that there was some theory of the case that that was not going to be the case anymore and there was a little bit more evidence. And now I don't want to pretend to be a New Jersey political expert but. But the guy Fullsop who is the third candidate, who's kind of an insurgent candidate, it's kind of a weird fit on an ideological spectrum, like some of the lefties like him. But he also is a big yimby. Anyway, he tried to challenge a bunch of incumbent New Jersey state legislature people and totally failed at all that. So again, that's different than Congress. But it's just one data point that we have that there just wasn't a groundswell. There was one positive groundswell evidence though which will continue to bear out in special elections and a midterm elections for Democrats. Massive turnout, like massive turnout. Like almost double the 2017 open primary turnout. Which is I think pretty telling.
- [81:12]
Sarah Longwell
Hi, I'm Richard Karn and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new pocket hose Copperhead with pocket pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what, an exciting radio exclusive offer just for you. For a limited time you can get a free pocket pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64,000. That's water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase W A T E R to 64,000. By texting 64,000, you agree to receive.
- [82:07]
JVL
Recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket Host. Message and data rates may apply.
- [82:10]
Sarah Longwell
No purchase required. Terms apply.
- [82:11]
JVL
Available at pockethost.com terms.
- [82:12]
E
Did you know that over 504 million people listen to podcasts every day, just like you? That's a lot of new customers. With audiohook, you can tap into the power of podcasting to reach the right listeners and find your next customer. The Audio Hook platform is designed to make podcast advertising simple and results driven. The best part? You don't pay upfront for placements or impressions. You only pay when your campaign delivers the results you want, whether that's more site visits, leads, or sales. That's right. You only pay for results. Audio Hook uses advanced technology to ensure your message connects with your target audience. Campaigns are optimized in real time so you can track success and adjust strategies instantly. With Audiohook, you'll maximize your spend and achieve your business goals faster. Get started today and take your business to the next level in 2025. To learn more about how Audiohook can help you achieve your desired results, visit audiohook.com results. That's audiohook.com forward slash, results.
- [83:15]
JVL
All right, last thing before we get out of here. And this is really just a little dessert for you guys since it's been pretty dark. A news item sent to me by my best friend Tim Miller about capitalism. I'm just going to read the tweet. In 2022, McKinsey was paid $55 million to advise Warner Brothers to combine with Discovery. Okay, that's what consulting firms do. From 2022 to 2025, McKinsey charged Warner Brothers Discovery, the merged company, $37 million by advising them to change HBO to HBO Max. And then just to Max, it's cleaner. And now back to HBO Max, which is coming to you this summer.
- [84:04]
Erin Andrews
Oh, they're going back to HBO Max, not just hbo.
- [84:08]
JVL
Yeah.
- [84:09]
Erin Andrews
Well, they get to do this again then.
- [84:11]
JVL
And finally, McKinsey, great news.
- [84:14]
Erin Andrews
You'll have another round.
- [84:16]
JVL
Discovery, another $63 million because they've determined that Warner Brothers and Discovery should separate and be separate brands again.
- [84:26]
Tim Miller
Capitalism. Capitalism.
- [84:30]
JVL
So that is $155 million to tell a company to merge, to tell them to change the name, to change it again, to change it Back and then to separate and blow up the merge. Yay, capitalism.
- [84:47]
Tim Miller
We need a doge in there. We need to get a doge in there. Because you know what, the private sector has a lot of efficiencies that the government could learn from. You know, the government needs to bring in a McKinsey to help them become more efficient, just like the private sector.
- [85:04]
Erin Andrews
Yeah, this isn't an indictment of capitalism. It's an indictment of McKinsey. Okay, like, this is, this is stupid advice. And I mean, does it have some late stage capitalismy like, overtones? Maybe a little bit, But a little bit. But it's not. This isn't a story of capitalism. It's a story of McKinsey giving, like ridiculous brand and structural advice to a media company, which they were clearly overpaying for. And also, I mean, guys like this, you don't have to cheer for capitalism for this, but you can still recognize that, you know, capitalism has given us, it's made us the responsibility. I'm a capitalist country in human history. It's given us safer food cleanup. Like, it's done a lot of things for us.
- [85:48]
JVL
Covid, vaccines.
- [85:49]
Tim Miller
I just thought JBL might want to share some thoughts on just the fruits of the capitalist.
- [85:54]
Erin Andrews
I set him up to fight with me is what I don't, I don't think you're my very good middle best friend.
- [85:58]
JVL
I promised you guys at the very beginning something nice. And so we will close out with something nice. I was up in Boston last night with Sarah and Flash, and Sarah and Flash and I hung out together. And this morning as we got into the car, Flash was just rhapsodizing about the glories of Sarah Longwell and what an amazing woman she is and how smart she is and how cool she is. And he then said, I mean, I think I might even like her better than Tim. Yeah, Flash, good show.
- [86:37]
Tim Miller
Long show to pride. Flash didn't know what condoms were until he met me last summer. Think about all I did for Flash.
- [86:45]
Erin Andrews
I took him to a Red Sox game.
- [86:48]
JVL
He said, Mike, he said, might. I think that means he's still open to. I think he's still open to persuasion.
- [86:56]
Tim Miller
Great. We'll see you guys.
- [86:58]
JVL
Guys, good show. Long show. Good luck, America.
- [87:04]
Sarah Longwell
Hi, I'm Richard Karn, and you may have seen me on TV talking about the world's number one expandable garden hose. Well, the brand new pocket hose Copperhead with pocket pivot is here and it's a total game changer. Old fashioned hoses get kinks and creases at the spigot, but the Copperhead's pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for full water flow and freedom to water with ease all around your home. When you're all done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back down to pocket size for effortless handling and tidy storage. Plus your super light and ultra durable pocket hose. Copperhead is backed with a 10 year warranty. What could be better than that? I'll tell you what. An exciting radio exclusive offer just for you for a limited time. You can get a free pocket pivot and their 10 pattern sprayer with the purchase of any size Copperhead hose. Just text water to 64,000. That's water to 64,000 for your two free gifts with purchase W A T E R to 64,000. By texting 64,000, you agree to receive.
- [87:59]
JVL
Recurring automated marketing messages from Pocket host. Message and data rates may apply.
- [88:02]
Sarah Longwell
No purchase required. Terms apply.
- [88:03]
JVL
Available at pockethose.com terms.