Biden's Final Push For More Ukraine Aid

Summary

Summary of "Biden's Final Push For More Ukraine Aid" – NPR Politics Podcast

Introduction

In the episode titled "Biden's Final Push For More Ukraine Aid," released on November 25, 2024, NPR's premier political reporters—Susan Davis, Tom Bowman, and Deirdre Walsh—delve into the evolving landscape of U.S. support for Ukraine amidst the transition to a new administration. The discussion centers on President Joe Biden's efforts to bolster Ukraine's defense before leaving office and the anticipated shifts under President-elect Donald Trump's administration.

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Current State of the Ukraine Conflict

Timestamp: 00:55 – 01:56

Tom Bowman provides a comprehensive update on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He describes the situation as a "stalemate," with Russia making incremental advances in eastern Ukraine. A significant development is President Biden's authorization of U.S. long-range missiles capable of traveling 190 miles, enabling their deployment within Russian territory. Bowman emphasizes the gravity of this decision, noting, “that is huge” (01:11). This move aligns with similar decisions by France and the United Kingdom, reflecting a coordinated Western response.

Additionally, Bowman highlights the presence of over 11,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk area of Russia, a region previously targeted by Ukrainian forces in August. He warns of the escalating tensions, including Russia's threats of nuclear weapon use, underscoring the precariousness of the current situation.

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Anticipated Political Shifts and Republican Control

Timestamp: 02:12 – 03:53

Deirdre Walsh discusses the impending political changes set to take effect on January 20th, following Republicans securing control of both the Senate and the House. She explains that the incoming administration under Donald Trump is expected to adopt a markedly different approach to Ukraine, moving away from bipartisan support toward a strategy focused on ending the war swiftly.

Walsh points out that key appointments reflect this ideological shift. For instance, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, slated to become Secretary of State, previously voted against a substantial $61 billion aid package to Ukraine in April (02:12). Similarly, Florida Congressman Mike Waltz, appointed as the National Security Adviser, shares a skeptical stance toward continued aid despite past support. These appointments signal Trump's alignment with Republican priorities to reduce overseas involvement and promote negotiations to conclude the conflict.

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President Trump's Approach to Resolving the Conflict

Timestamp: 08:27 – 09:34

Tom Bowman examines President-elect Trump's bold claims regarding his capacity to swiftly end the war. Trump asserts, “I can end this in one day” (08:42), positioning himself as a dealmaker capable of brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine. However, Bowman expresses skepticism about the feasibility and implications of such a resolution, suggesting it may disproportionately favor Russia. He speculates that any negotiated settlement could result in Russian troops maintaining control over contested regions, including Crimea, which remains under Russian jurisdiction.

Bowman raises concerns about the lack of clarity in Trump's proposed strategies and the potential exclusion of NATO allies from the negotiation process. This uncertainty leaves Ukraine dependent on the forthcoming policies of both the Trump administration and its international partners.

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Implications for U.S. Defense Policy and Allied Support

Timestamp: 10:14 – 11:41

Deirdre Walsh explores the potential repercussions of the U.S. possibly stepping back from its leadership role in supporting Ukraine. She questions how this shift might impact existing alliances and the overall defense strategy against Russian aggression. Walsh notes, “what does that do with allies on Capitol Hill?” (10:39), highlighting concerns about the United States' diminished influence in collective defense efforts.

Furthermore, Walsh discusses internal dynamics within the Democratic Party, which is grappling with aligning its strategies to resonate with constituents who supported Trump's "America First" agenda. This introspection could affect future bipartisan cooperation on defense appropriations and federal resource allocation for Ukraine.

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Economic Considerations and Domestic Impact

Timestamp: 05:03 – 06:46

The hosts address the economic dimensions of continued aid to Ukraine. Tom Bowman clarifies misconceptions about foreign aid, emphasizing that much of the funding supports U.S. defense contractors domestically. He states, “Most of that money is being spent in the US by defense contractors who are building additional plants, hiring more workers” (06:22). This investment not only aids Ukraine but also stimulates the U.S. economy by bolstering the defense industry workforce and infrastructure.

However, with the Republican-controlled Congress expected to reassess defense appropriations, future funding decisions may shift based on constituent priorities and the new administration's policies.

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European Union's Role and Future Support for Ukraine

Timestamp: 04:14 – 10:14

The episode underscores the increasing involvement of European nations in supporting Ukraine's defense capabilities. Germany, France, Britain, Italy, and Poland have announced plans to enhance Ukraine’s defense industry, focusing on technologies such as drone warfare. This collective effort aims to compensate for potential reductions in U.S. support under the Trump administration, as highlighted by Naila, “Germany announced that five European countries will step up support for Ukraine's defense industry” (05:03).

The expansion of European aid is critical in maintaining Ukraine's resistance against Russian advances, especially in light of uncertain future U.S. commitments.

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Concluding Insights

Timestamp: 11:59 – 12:07

As the episode draws to a close, Deirdre Walsh and Tom Bowman reflect on the transformative period ahead for U.S. foreign policy concerning Ukraine. The transition to a Republican majority in Congress and a Trump presidency is poised to alter the trajectory of international aid and defense strategies. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's negotiation tactics and the potential realignment of defense priorities present significant implications for Ukraine’s future and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Notable Quotes

• Tom Bowman (01:11): “He was skeptical at first because he didn't want to escalate the war.”

• Deirdre Walsh (02:12): “Trump is leading the Republican Party to push for an end to the war in Ukraine.”

• Tom Bowman (08:42): “I can end this in one day.”

• Deirdre Walsh (10:39): “What does that do with allies on Capitol Hill?”

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Conclusion

The episode paints a picture of a U.S. political landscape in flux, with significant implications for Ukraine amid a critical juncture in its conflict with Russia. President Biden's final efforts to support Ukraine are set against the backdrop of an incoming administration that may prioritize domestic over international commitments. As the new administration takes shape, the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine remains uncertain, with profound consequences for regional stability and international alliances.

Transcript

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[Naila]

Hi, this is Naila. I'm with my mom and dada.

[Adi]

This is Adi and this is Shauna. You last played our timestamp when nyla was just eight days old and now.

[Naila]

She'S two and a half. This podcast was recorded at 12:55pm on Monday, November 25th.

[Tom Bowman]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this.

[Naila]

Okay, Hear the show. It's true what they say, the days are long, but the years are short.

[Tom Bowman]

Amen.

[Naila]

Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Tom Bowman]

I'm Tom Bowman. I cover the Pentagon.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

[Naila]

And today on the show, how President Biden is trying to help Ukraine's defense efforts before he leaves office. His successor, Donald Trump is skeptical of continuing aid to Ukraine and wants to help quickly negotiate an end to the war. Tom, first just give us an update on the ground. What's the state of the war right now?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, the state of the war is something of a stalemate. Russia is making advances in Ukraine's east, but the big news is President Biden has finally allowed US long range missiles that can travel 190 miles, allowing them to be used inside Russia. That is huge. He was skeptical at first because he didn't want to escalate the war. Russia is threatening nuclear weapon use, but there are more than 11,000 North Korean troops that have gone into the Kursk area of Russia where the Ukrainian forces back in August made an incursion. So this heavy fighting going on there. So the US Is allowing those long range missiles to be used. And the French and the Brits have also weighed in allowing their missiles to be used in this Kursk area.

[Naila]

Deirdre, change is coming in January in a lot of ways. But under President Biden, he was able to keep cobbled together this bipartisan support in Congress to keep aiding Ukraine. It might be an understatement to say that's likely to see a very different result come January 20th.

[Deirdre Walsh]

We are definitely looking at a major change in power on this issue. Specifically come January. Obviously, Republican took control of the Senate. The House remains in Republican hands. And Trump comes to the White House with a completely different strategy when it comes to Ukraine. And you see the top, some of the top picks in his incoming administration reflect the change in the Republican Party. You have people like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who's tapped to be the Secretary of State, who had been supporting aid to Ukraine. But he voted against the last package in April, that $61 billion. Still, there's still some of that money left to go the door to pay for things like Tom just described. Florida Congressman Mike Walls, who has been tapped to be the president's national security adviser, also voted against that aid, had supported Ukraine in the past. But it just shows you sort of Trump is leading the Republican Party to push for an end to the war in Ukraine. There are still Russia hawks on the Hill that have significant posts and we'll, I think, see a big divide continue to play out. You know, Mitch McConnell stepped down as Republican leader in the Senate, but he will be chairing the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.

[Naila]

Which is not a small job in.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Washington, which is a big job in Washington. And he knows that. And he has been very blunt about the fact that he wants to be a big voice in defense policy, foreign policy. And you still have chairs of these committees that oversee the Pentagon, that support helping Ukraine. And they will be battling with new incoming members who campaigned on getting out of the war in Ukraine.

[Tom Bowman]

But it sounds like there's no question that we are entering into a new era. Mike Waltz over the weekend said he wants to see a responsible end to the war in Ukraine. Member President Elect Trump said, I can end this in one day. What it looks like is it's going to end in Putin's favor. J.D. vance, the Vice president elect has said, let's freeze the front lines.

[Naila]

Tom, for those of us that don't speak battlefield, what does freeze the front lines mean?

[Tom Bowman]

It means you end the war where the troops are located. That could be Russian troops in Ukrainian territory, but it ends right there. The big question is what will Ukrainians get out of any sort of peace deal. They would like to be a member of NATO. That's unlikely to happen. You have to get 31 members to sign off on it. They could get a lot more weaponry, maybe from the U.S. but of course, Trump is transactional. He may say the Ukrainians have to buy American made missiles and other equipment. It's not going to be a gift from the United States. Interestingly, just today, Germany announced that five European countries will step up support for Ukraine's defense industry. Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Poland. Just today they announced that clearly with an eye to who's coming into the White House.

[Naila]

And politically, Deirdre, I mean, this is one of the things I think about where on this issue in particular, this was a big loud issue in the 2024 campaign. If Ukraine was being litigated in election, it seems pretty decisively that not only did Donald Trump win, but so did the Senate Republicans that took over the majority, all Ukraine skeptics. I mean, the party does seem to just be moving tactically in a different direction and with the support of the American people.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Remember Trump's slogan, America First? He campaigned on that. People up and down the ticket for Congress campaigned on that. There was a big focus on we need to be spending more resources to deal with our security at the US Mexico border, not spend money sending weapons and supporting this effort overseas. In Ukraine, I think there was a lot of noise where, you know, candidates I talked to incumbent Republicans, I talked to talked about fears from people back home that eventually Americans can get dragged into the war in Ukraine. That was never something that the Biden administration even talked about. But President elect Trump sort of threatened that it was out there. And it sort of became, I think some misinformation in part of the political debate about what would be happening next in Ukraine. And I think that's why you saw a lot of candidates echo the top of the ticket.

[Tom Bowman]

And part of that misinformation, of course, was the anti Ukraine vote voices were, oh, we're sending all this money to Ukraine. Most of that money is being spent in the US by defense contractors who are building additional plants, hiring more workers. You're going to see that continue. They have to replenish their missiles, their artillery rounds and other things like that. You're going to see that continue well into the future.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And once those new incoming members come to Congress and hear from their constituents, we may see votes a little bit different in these defense appropriations bills.

[Naila]

Okay, let's take a quick break and we'll talk more about what a negotiated piece might look like.

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[Tom Bowman]

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[Naila]

And we're back. And Tom, as you noted earlier, Donald Trump campaigned saying that he could quickly bring an end to this war, that he could negotiate peace between Ukraine and Russia. What does that look like? What has he broadly said that he wants to do to resolve this conflict?

[Tom Bowman]

You know, he hasn't really said, of course. He says, I'm the best dealmaker in the world, I can end it on day one. But we don't know exactly what that will look like. But it seems like it would end on terms that are favorable to Putin. You know, he would love to see this war come to an end and leave Russian troops where they are inside Ukraine. The Russians control about 18% of the country. So it'd be in his interest to say, yeah, yeah, let's just stop it and I'll stay where I am. And he also still, of course, holds Crimea. So again, if it's going to end like that, it's very favorable to Putin. And then how would you do that? Would you sit down with NATO members and just say it's time to end it? They may say, no, I don't think it's a good idea. We want to continue to support Ukraine, give them more weapons. I think they can do a better job. We just don't know, other than what Trump said. I can end it on day one.

[Naila]

Do you have any sense from the Ukrainian side of this, how they're looking at the incoming Trump administration, which for their own interests seems much more hostile than the Biden administration has been?

[Tom Bowman]

No, I think they're clearly nervous about the way ahead. Right. Will they get any support from the US Will they have to rely on NATO? And again, Germany announced this plan by five European countries to beef up their support for Ukraine's defense industry. What does that look like? What do they build and what can they do going forward? They're doing a really good job with their drones heading into Moscow. Even so, what does that look like? It really is uncharted waters at this point, other than I want to end it.

[Naila]

Deirdre, it is incredibly fascinating, too, as we've seen these shifting alliances on Capitol Hill where some of now the strongest supporters of Ukraine reside in the Democratic Party who will not have a very strong, strong hand to play in the Trump administration. And even though there might still be a formidable coalition of power players in Washington who back Ukraine, Mitch McConnell being one of them, he doesn't have the same seat at the table he used to.

[Deirdre Walsh]

Right. It's a completely different group of people that have sort of the reins going forward starting January 20th. I mean, to Tom's point about some of these other countries divvying up weapons, I think part of the Biden administration's approach to Ukraine is to try to build these alliances and try to have more people, allies help with the defense of Ukraine against Russia. I sort of wonder what happens to that when the US Potentially steps back from a leadership role and Ukraine will be in a much weaker position. And what does that do with allies on Capitol Hill? Will they be able to say, hey, can we at least do XYZ while this peace negotiation is going forward? It doesn't sound like they're going to have much power in that negotiation. And it's also, like you said, you had Democrats completely united behind the Biden administration and the division being in the Republican Party. I don't know that that's going to continue going forward.

[Naila]

Why not?

[Deirdre Walsh]

I just sort of think the Democratic Party is trying to figure out why a lot of these people supported Trump and his priorities focused on the economy at home. And what does that do to the Democrats approach to chipping in this kind of federal resources going forward?

[Naila]

That's a really good point. Okay. That is it for us today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.

[Tom Bowman]

I'm Tom Bowman. I cover the Pentagon.

[Deirdre Walsh]

And I'm Deirdre Walsh. I cover Congress.

[Naila]

And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.

[Susan Davis]

The election is over, but the story is just beginning. Listen to Here and Now Anytime. We're talking to everyone, Democrats, Republicans, Independents, covering the political stories that matter to you and your community. And we promise to bring you stories outside Washington, too. That's on Here and Now Anytime, wherever you listen to podcasts this week on our podcast Here and Now Anytime. Have you had a frustrating conversation about politics with someone you disagree with Lately? Most Americans have, according to a Pew survey from before the election. So I'm gonna guess that number has only gone up. We're kicking off a series on finding common ground called Conversations across the Divide. Listen now on Here and Now, anytime, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Adi]

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