Can Trump Get His Megabill Through Congress?

Summary

Summary of "Can Trump Get His Megabill Through Congress?" – The NPR Politics Podcast

Release Date: May 20, 2025

In this episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, NPR’s political correspondents delve into the complexities surrounding President Donald Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda, specifically focusing on a comprehensive bill often referred to as the "Megabill." This proposed legislation encapsulates Trump’s key policy priorities, combining tax cut extensions, increased border funding, and significant federal spending reductions. The discussion highlights the bill’s contents, the political maneuvering required for its passage, and the potential ramifications for Congress and upcoming elections.

1. Overview of the Megabill

The Megabill represents a concerted effort by House Republicans to advance a legislative package that aligns closely with President Trump’s domestic policy objectives. According to Barbara Sprunt, who covers Congress, the bill includes:

• Tax Cuts Extension: Extending the 2017 tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the year.
• Border Funding: Increasing financial resources dedicated to border security.
• Spending Cuts: Implementing reductions across various federal programs, including Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).

Sprunt elaborates, “This is a bill that would accomplish much of the president's domestic policy agenda... One of the issues that members of the Freedom Caucus and fiscal hawks have with this bill is that it costs a lot. And forecasters say that it could add trillions to the deficit over a period of a decade” (02:20).

2. Obstacles in Passing the Bill

Despite broad support among House Republicans, the Megabill faces significant hurdles:

• Deficit Concerns: Fiscal conservatives within the Freedom Caucus are worried about the bill’s long-term impact on the national deficit, with estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggesting it could increase the deficit by trillions over ten years.
• State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT) Cap: Republicans from blue states are pushing to lift the SALT deduction cap, a provision crucial for their constituencies. This has been a sticking point in negotiations.
• Medicaid Cuts: Proposed reductions and adjustments to Medicaid are controversial, as they could lead to millions losing coverage.

Barbara Sprunt notes, “House leadership has been negotiating with these two groups for a while now... They have work requirements on the table now for Medicaid kicking in sooner than originally intended with the bill” (02:49).

3. Trump's Capitol Hill Visit and Strategy

In a strategic move to garner support, President Trump visited Capitol Hill to advocate for the Megabill. His approach was characterized by direct persuasion and reaffirming party unity.

Tamara Keith observes, “His message was get this done... There was no shouting. I think it was a meeting of love” (04:19). However, despite his efforts, Trump's rhetoric sometimes conflicted with the bill's provisions. For instance, he criticized blue state governors over the SALT issue and opposed significant Medicaid cuts, creating tension with the bill's actual content.

4. Republican Responses and Holdouts

The bill enjoys overwhelming support, with Barbara Sprunt stating, “Someone said 98% of us are there...” (04:10). Nevertheless, a few holdouts remain:

• SALT Deduction Opponents: New York Congressman Mike Lawler insists, “He respects the president, but it's just something that he can't budge on... He'd never vote for a tax bill without raising the cap on these deductions” (08:22).
• Freedom Caucus Members: Tennessee Congressman Tim Burchett expressed initial skepticism but showed optimism following Trump's meeting, indicating a potential shift towards support (07:44).

Tamara Keith adds, “He wants this done through sheer force of will... He has singled out one particular member, Thomas Massie from Kentucky, making an example of him for any Republican who might stray” (06:55).

5. Implications for Upcoming Elections

The fate of the Megabill is not only pivotal for current legislative agendas but also has significant implications for the midterm elections:

• Accountability Concerns: Barbara Sprunt highlights that House members are wary of how Medicaid cuts might impact their constituencies, which could influence voter sentiment.
• Electoral Risks: Tamara Keith warns, “There's a risk... if they do this, they could be punished by voters” (14:43), reflecting the delicate balance lawmakers must maintain between party loyalty and constituent interests.

6. Conclusion

The NPR Politics Podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and dynamics at play as President Trump seeks to push his legislative agenda through a divided Congress. While the Megabill encapsulates key Republican priorities, internal disagreements and the president’s confrontational negotiation style pose substantial obstacles. The outcome of this legislative battle will not only shape the immediate policy landscape but also set the tone for the political climate leading into the midterm elections.

Notable Quotes:

• Barbara Sprunt (02:42): “House leadership has been negotiating with these two groups for a while now, but it really ramped up over the weekend.”
• Tamara Keith (04:19): “There was no shouting. I think it was a meeting of love.”
• Myles Parks (06:55): “He wants this done through sheer force of will.”
• Barbara Sprunt (08:22): “He says he'd never vote for a tax bill without raising the cap on these deductions.”
• Tamara Keith (14:43): “There's a risk... if they do this, they could be punished by voters.”

This episode underscores the intricate interplay between party dynamics, legislative priorities, and electoral considerations, offering listeners a detailed understanding of the current political maneuvering in Washington.

Transcript

[Tamara Keith]

Conductor Robert Franz says a good melody.

[Barbara Sprunt]

Captures our attention and that it moves you through time. Music is architecture in time. If you engage in the moment with what you're listening to, you do lose a sense of the time around you, how we experience time.

[Tamara Keith]

That's on the TED Radio Hour from npr. This is Jessica from southwestern Washington. I'm currently up north in Bellingham at my Child's Tattoo Store studio where they are giving me a tattoo of their baby footprint right in the spot where 27 years ago they frequently kicked me from the inside.

[Barbara Sprunt]

We're almost done.

[Myles Parks]

This podcast was recorded at 1:21pm on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

[Tamara Keith]

Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but hopefully my first tattoo will be healed.

[Barbara Sprunt]

Oh my gosh.

[Tamara Keith]

I was listening to that, thinking, what that sound? Is it like a movie theater with an old reel? What is it? And then bam. Tattoo.

[Barbara Sprunt]

That's a fun little bonding moment.

[Myles Parks]

I feel like that I've never heard a tattoo timestamp. I feel like it's amazing that we still are finding new things to have on the top of this podcast. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting.

[Barbara Sprunt]

I'm Barbara Sprent. I cover Congress.

[Tamara Keith]

And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Myles Parks]

House Republicans are working to advance a massive bill that pairs tax cut extensions with increased border funding and de spending cuts across the federal government. It's essentially all of President Trump's legislative priorities wrapped into one bill. And stop me if you've heard this one before, just a few Republican defectors in the House could derail the whole thing. So Trump stopped by Capitol Hill today to make his case. But before we get to that, Barbara, remind everyone what is actually in this giant bill.

[Barbara Sprunt]

Sure. So this is a bill that would accomplish much of the president's domestic policy agenda, and it includes things like extending the 2017 tax cuts with which expire at the end of the year. And it's a major priority for basically every Republican up here on Capitol Hill. It includes no taxes on tips and overtime, cuts to Medicaid work requirements for Medicaid cuts, to the food assistance program called snap. You know, one of the issues that members of the Freedom Caucus and fiscal hawks have with this bill is that it costs a lot. And forecasters say that it could add trillions to the deficit over a period of a decade. So that's very concerning for people who feel that the government should be in the business of reducing the deficit.

[Myles Parks]

And so obviously, there are some hold ups right now, or this bill would have already been passed. What are the biggest things that are causing conflict right now?

[Barbara Sprunt]

Yeah, there's two big, like, groups of people up here who have issues with the bill as it's written, and they're the fiscal hawks, a lot of the Freedom Caucus, who really want significant deficit reduction. They see that as an opportunity and a mandate, and they want to take advantage of that. And blue state Republicans who are pushing to lift the cap on the deduction of state and local taxes, which are called salt. And House leadership has been negotiating with these two groups for a while now, but it really ramped up over the weekend. On Friday, a handful of Republicans on the Budget Committee tanked the vote so that the bill could not advance. And that resulted in leadership spending the weekend negotiating, trying to move the needle. They did just enough. It passed out of that same committee late Sunday night. But those holdouts didn't vote. Yes, they voted present, so it advanced, but they still say they need more concessions in order to support it. They have gotten something from those negotiations. They have work requirements on the table now for Medicaid kicking in sooner than originally intended with the bill. But a lot of members told me coming out of this meeting with the president this morning that, yes, the majority of the conference is on board with the bill as it's written. Someone said 98% of us are there, but this is a conference with a really narrow majority, so 98% might not be good enough.

[Myles Parks]

Well, Tam, what do we know about the president visiting Capitol Hill? What did he say to these kind of few holdouts who he desperately needs to get on his side?

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, his message was get this done. And I think he probably said it in multiple different ways coming out of the meeting. He said, there is Republican unity.

[Myles Parks]

That was a meeting of love, let me tell you.

[Tamara Keith]

That was love in that room. There was no shouting. I think it was a meeting of love. But his power of positive thinking there doesn't really solve the math problem that Barbara is talking about. And some of the other things he said could make that math problem worse. In remarks to reporters, he stopped four different times around the Capitol at various microphones to talk about what he wants. And at one point, he basically bashed blue state governors and said that salt issue that's so important to Republicans who are are the majority makers, these Republicans from blue states who gave the House Republicans the majority. He essentially said, like, you're not getting this. He thinks it would just be a gift to these blue state governors who he made clear that he really doesn't like. And then he said no cuts to Medicaid. Sure, you can go after waste, fraud and abuse, but he doesn't want really big cuts to Medicaid, which is in conflict with what's actually in the bill that he's trying to get people to pass. And it's also in conflict with the goals of the fiscal hawks who want more spending cuts.

[Myles Parks]

Okay, so, Barbara, specifically on Medicaid, what would this bill do?

[Barbara Sprunt]

You know, the part of Medicaid that's getting a lot of attention right now is what the cbo, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, has estimated if this bill does go into effect, and that estimate is that 8.6 million people enrolled in Medicaid could lose coverage. As Tam mentioned, the President has talked a lot about, and so has the House speaker, about cutting waste, fraud and abuse from the program. However, the target numbers in this bill, cutting waste, fraud and abuse, will not cut it in terms of reaching that number. So there's a lot of concern that folks will lose coverage who currently have it. And then, of course, there's the work requirements element. House Freedom Caucus members are pushing to have work requirements for able bodied adults without dependents to kick in quicker.

[Myles Parks]

Tam, I do feel like Trump is pretty overt in the way he's trying to convince these people to do what he wants. Right. It's not, I'm going to convince you on some policy position. It is pretty much you are going to get primaried or you are going to lose your election. Right?

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah. He wasn't really there to bridge differences or hammer out, you know, nuance in when these things start or when they finish to try to get the numbers where they need to be. He wants this done through sheer force of will. And he brought these guys to the dance. Right. Every single House Republican was on a ballot with Donald Trump in 2024, um, and he has singled out one particular member, Thomas Massie from Kentucky, who is someone who is not easily persuaded by President Trump. Um, but he's making an example of him for any other Republican who might stray.

[Myles Parks]

Well, how, how is that message landing, Barbara, for the Republican members who have to this point voiced opposition or been skeptical of this bill, did you get a sense at this point that Trump's message is persuading them?

[Barbara Sprunt]

You know, it's not like I expected any of the holdouts to come right out of the meeting and say, okay, never mind, like, we've changed our minds, we're fully on board. But several members did indicate that they're more optimistic now, you know, I talked to Tennessee Congressman Tim Burchett. He's part of the Freedom Caucus. He was skeptical about the bill as it was written, but here's what he had to say coming out of the meeting.

[Tamara Keith]

It's like an NBA ballgame, boys. Wait till the last two minutes and watch it. And we're about at 2 minutes and.

[Myles Parks]

30 seconds right now.

[Tamara Keith]

I think there'll be a little arm twisting, a little gnashing of teeth, but I think the president will deliver like he always does. Don't count him out.

[Barbara Sprunt]

You know, other members told me that, you know, they think that Trump did move the holdouts a little bit, that they're not quite there yet, but that it was an impactful meeting. But the comments that Trump made in the room I don't think were enough to sweeten the deal for that particular SALT group that we were talking about. New York Congressman Mike Lawler said he respects the president, but it's just something that he can't budge on. He says it's a major issue for his constituents in New York. He said he'd never vote for a tax bill without raising the cap on these deductions. So there's still a lot of daylight on that particular front.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, I mean, I think that the point that Congressman Burchett is making is a good one, which is there have been a few stops along the way with this legislation already where it looked like there is no way Republicans are not going to work this out. And then Trump says, you have to do it, and they say okay. And then the Republicans just sort of fall in line. This could be the time when they don't fall in line. But there's also a really good chance that he does that thing he does. You know, like I talked to a former Trump administration official who said when he gets members on the phone, they find it very hard to say no.

[Myles Parks]

All right. Well, let's leave it there for now. We're going to take a quick break.

[Barbara Sprunt]

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[Tamara Keith]

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[Myles Parks]

And we're back. And we've been talking about President Trump's efforts to get House Republicans on board with his legislative agenda and this massive tax bill that they are trying to pass right now. And Tam, I'm wondering, as you look with the president's visit today to the Hill, how different is how he's negotiating or how he's communicating with lawmakers this time around compared to the first Trump administration. I know that after winning the popular vote in 2024, he has said his administration has said that they feel like they have a mandate to pretty much do what voters sent them here to do. Has that changed how he communicates with these lawmakers?

[Tamara Keith]

Well, he is certainly behaving like he's very empowered. Just ask all the branches of government that are being steamrolled by the, by the White House and his and the president's executive authority. But the other thing to note, and we've noted it before on this podcast, but this is President Trump's Republican Party. There are not a lot of Republicans left in Congress who are anti Trump, Trump Republicans or uncomfortable publicly with Trump or pushing back on him in any public way. It at this point is extremely surprising to see any Republican push back on the president at all because all of the people who opposed him have, have been purged from the elected Republican Party. And you know, as we saw today, him saying, well, if, if you don't support this bill, then you should lose. That's really where he is right now. But I will say that I recently talked to someone who was part of the first Trump administration who is watching how the White House is working on this bill now and managing it. And this person believes that the White House is perhaps banking more than they should on the persuasive power of President Trump, on Trump as the ultimate closer, and that they haven't been doing as much of the work as they did in the first term of, you know, sending cabinet officials to people's districts to make a case for that bill or lining up local officials and influential people in their district to call and say, no, you've really got to do this. This person hasn't seen as much of that sort of the behind the scenes efforts to move lawmakers. And it seems that they are really just counting on the president to twist those arms.

[Myles Parks]

I mean, that's the thing, right? These House members are up for election every two years and it's going to be them who are facing voters if there are, you know, cuts to snap or cuts to Medicaid or anything like that. Barbara, are you, do you get a sense from some of these lawmakers that the midterm elections that are really already at the forefront of how they're thinking about voting on this bill?

[Barbara Sprunt]

Well, you know, like on the one hand, I think that the next midterm elections are on the forefront of House members minds the day after that they win an election that's just sort of the nature of the beast in the House. But yes, members have expressed concerns about Medicaid cuts and how it impacts their constituents, but still, it's like almost ridiculous to say because we've been talking about it for a while, but this is still early in the process. We've not even touched the Senate yet. So the exact contours of what we'll be looking at impact wise next year is still very much unknown. And then of course, once it works its way through the House, then it comes to the Senate, it's not going to be any easier to get through in the upper chamber than it has been in the House. Senators are already trashing the bill, saying they can't vote for it as it is. And so there's also this interesting dynamic of a lot of House members are going to be voting on something that has fairly controversial elements like cutting Medicaid and might not even be the final product.

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, they are going to have to walk the plank. And some of, for some of them it really will be walking the plank. President Trump is making the case that if they don't do this, they will be punished by voters. But there's a risk on the other side as well, which is if they do do this, they could be punished by voters. And that is just a reality of when presidents have unitary control. When it, when they have the White House and the House and the Senate, they do big bold things and then often they're punished by voters for overreaching, for over overplaying their mandate.

[Myles Parks]

Okay, well, let's leave it there for now. I'm sure we're going to be talking about this a lot the next couple days and the next couple weeks. I'm Myles Parks. I cover voting.

[Barbara Sprunt]

I'm Barbara Sprint. I cover Congress.

[Tamara Keith]

And I'm Tamara Keith. I cover the White House.

[Myles Parks]

And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.

[Tamara Keith]

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