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Andrew
Andrew in the Arabian Gulf. I'm currently deployed with the Royal Navy, ensuring freedom of navigation is maintained throughout the region. This podcast was recorded at 12:37pm on.
Deepa Shivaram
Tuesday, November 12, 2024.
Andrew
Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will probably still be on the high seas, watching sunsets and longing for fresh vegetables. Okay, here's the show.
Ashley Lopez
That would break me.
Deepa Shivaram
That was a pretty iconic timestamp.
Sarah McCammon
Yeah, that sounds pretty good.
Deepa Shivaram
But we wish you vegetables in your future. Hey there. It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.
Ashley Lopez
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.
Sarah McCammon
I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.
Deepa Shivaram
And today on the pod, we're talking about Latino voters who went for Trump. Trump won 46% of Latinos this year, the highest ever for a Republican. And, Sarah, let's bring you in first, because you reported out a story this week about this group and why they backed the former president. Where did you go for this story, and who did you end up talking to?
Sarah McCammon
Well, I wanted to hear from conservative Latinos, people who were likely to have supported Trump, and really sort of hear what's on their minds. And so I went to a church in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. It's called First Bilingual Christian Church. The pastor there said people come from 14 different countries, some mix of Puerto Ricans who, of course, are US Citizens, and lots of naturalized citizens and other people who are still in the process of hopefully becoming citizens. And so this was a church with a, a really wide range of experiences and backgrounds, but a very politically and theologically conservative evangelical Latino church where just about everybody I talked to had supported Trump. And, you know, I heard two major things. One was what you might expect. The economy. This was, you know, an issue we heard from so many voters all over the country covering this campaign. But as you might imagine, in a, you know, conservative evangelical church, a lot of people also talked about social and cultural issues like abortion, like transgender issues. And they said they felt like Donald Trump. Trump, whether he himself was a Christian or not, at least respected and understood their concerns more than the Democrats.
Deepa Shivaram
So it's interesting. It's like, some of it is policy ish, right? Like how they're feeling about the economy, but then also just like, it sounds like they weren't particularly concerned whether or not Trump was religious himself, but it was just a reflection of. They felt like they were being seen a little more than Democrats, maybe.
Sarah McCammon
Yeah. You know, one of the people I met was a man in his mid-30s named Raul de La Cruz. He is originally from the Dominican Republic, came here as a small child, natural formalized as a citizen as a young man. And he told me something that I hear from a lot of evangelicals, of usually white evangelicals, who I tend to cover a lot, which is this idea that, you know, whatever Trump's personal character, he wasn't voting for that reason.
Andrew
I am not voting for a pastor. I'm not voting for a leader at a church. I'm voting for a man that respects Christian values and his understanding of how America should be according to the Constitution is based on Christian values.
Ashley Lopez
You know, I think this is really interesting. Like, obviously, evangelicals are always gonna be probably the most stalwart constituency for the Republican Party. And this shows that, like, it cuts across even, like, sort of ethnic and racial lines, because I also talked to a lot of Latinos, obviously, in red states like Florida and Texas, but also in, you know, more purple states like Pennsylvania. And, you know, Trump's character did matter. I talked to one man in Philly. He has, like. He owns a grocery store. His name is Edward Bonilla, and he is Dominican. And he said that, actually, what, you know, Trump said about Haitian immigrants really bothered him because, you know, that he's from the Dominican Republic and that, you know, they're from the same island. So he took that pretty personally. But, you know, by and large, he was on the fence about either not voting at all or voting for Trump because the economy was so important. And so I think it's interesting, like, you know, for the most part, a lot of Latinos I talk to, like, the economy was their number one issue. And just depending, like, how entrenched you are in sort of conservative politics is like, whether or not you turned out, which I think kind of bears out in the sort of exit polls we've seen, of course, like demographic data like this is gonna get mentioned a lot. Like that's gonna become clearer in the months to come. But I'm really curious to see, like in the few little places where like maybe Trump's character did sort of sway some of these, like Latino and sort of like less consistent voters or new voters, you know, I'm gonna be curious to see what happened.
Deepa Shivaram
I'm curious from both of you. I we mentioned at the top that this was the largest share of Latino voters that Republicans have ever won before. And you both have covered elections in the past. Trend wise, what are you seeing that's maybe changed from four years ago, eight years ago? If anything, the shift toward the Republican.
Sarah McCammon
Party that we saw was more pronounced, I think, than anybody anticipated. I mean, if you look back at 2020 data, this shift was starting to emerge. Right. But we're talking double digit growth, which I think was not expected.
Ashley Lopez
It's not just because, you know, I think, like, if you look at some down ballot races, especially in states where there are a lot of Latino voters, Democrats are holding on a little bit. We'll see if Latinos are in the mix for that. But from what I heard from a lot of Latino voters, like writ large, like across the board, from every sort of geographic background, for maybe the exception of Puerto Ricans, is that their lack of trust in Democrats to solve their sort of material needs. And I mean, I, like, there's going to be a lot of talk about, like, how the Democrats sort of like missed how much voters were like screaming at both parties to like, solve inflation and economic, you know, pressures that they were feeling. But when you're a Latino immigrant, especially in a Latino immigrant community, like, you have to remember, like, these are folks who left their countries, their families, the nation that speaks their language to come to a place in search of economic prosperity. Like, that is the promise of this country. And there is like nothing more frustrating to a group of people than to have made all these sacrifices and to show up somewhere and feel like this one thing that you were promised seems so far out of reach. So I think, like across the board, like, I think that is really what caused this sort of like humongous shift away from Democrats and to, you know, a party that was promising, you know, big changes to the economy. I mean, whether that all bears out is an open question. But Donald Trump was at least taking these concerns, like, at least very seriously.
Sarah McCammon
On that note, one of the pastors of the church who I spoke with before the service. You know, I asked about that joke at the Madison Square Garden rally not too long before the election where the comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made that comment describing Puerto Rico as an island of garbage. You know, the pastor said that was offensive, but he said there are bigger issues that they're dealing with. And one of those issues is the economy.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. And to your point, Ashley, I mean, this isn't just people who are necessarily like just looking at themselves or their direct family members. Right. Like, so many of these folks are multigenerational. They're thinking about their kids futures, their kids education, their kids livelihoods, whether or not they can provide for all of that. And on top of that, Sarah, to your reporting, you know, when you talk about their community values, especially when you visit a church like the one you visited to, it seems like the Republican Party really spoke to them overall on both of those fronts.
Sarah McCammon
Right. At least to this group and at least to, you know, conservative Latinos with a sort of religious inclination, which isn't everybody. But, you know, one of the women I spoke to at the church said, look, not all Latinos are religious, but were a group of people that values, you know, family values. And, you know, that was her take, but that was sort of how she described the affinity that some people in her church and her larger community had for Trump and the Republican Party.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah. All right. We're going to take a quick break and we'll be back in a moment.
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Deepa Shivaram
And we're back. And we're going to talk about immigration specifically here because there is sort of this misconception that folks in this country who have maybe immigrated to the US recently or are first or second, second generation Americans might be less into how someone like Donald Trump talks about immigration, how folks in the Republican Party sometimes talk about immigration, but there's a lot of nuance there and it's sometimes a little bit more complicated. Right, Sarah?
Sarah McCammon
So much more complicated. So many folks at this church I visited and other Latino leaders I've spoken to, particularly on the right Republican Latino leaders have said, look, Latino Americans care about the same things that a lot of other Americans care about, particularly those inclined to vote for Republicans this year. They care about safety and security. And there's a sense that what's happening at the border is unacceptable. And, you know, I heard that from people I talked to, some of whom either themselves were immigrants or, you know, were close to people who had gone through the immigration process. You know, I talked to Karen Orta, she is Puerto Rican. So of course, American citizen didn't have to deal with immigration, but she knows people who have. And she said she, she supports Trump's policy here.
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It's a sad topic, but I agree to what he says that people need to come to the United States of America the legal way.
Sarah McCammon
And she said, look, not everybody coming through the border is causing problems, but she feels that some people are. And she said that it's sad because a lot of people come here seeking the American dream, but there just has to be a process. There has to be a limit. Another woman I spoke to who is a naturalized citizen originally from Colombia, said, this is my country now essentially, and I want to be safe. And so those same arguments that Trump was making, sort of, you know, that appealed broadly among the white electorate, seem to appeal to many of the Latinos I've talked to as well.
Deepa Shivaram
Ashley, I'm curious because the way I'm kind of thinking about this as Sarah's talking about it and from, you know, my coverage on the trail as well, is that so many of these issues, right, talking about the Border. Talking about immigration is somehow used to also talk about housing. It's also used to talk about people's pocketbooks and how they feel about the economy, is also used to talk about criminal justice. And it kind of becomes this, like, base issue to fan out into all these other issues that people have a lot of concerns about. Did you see that playing out in your reporting as well?
Ashley Lopez
Yeah. Well, I mean, I would frame it as. I think immigrants were scapegoated a lot for sort of financial issues. I think J.D. vance said a couple of times during the debate that housing prices were related to an influx of migrants in the country. I think a lot of these things economists have mixed views on. I don't think that that is completely true. The economy is hard to understand for anyone trying to figure out what is causing inflation, why your groceries are higher. I think everyone's looking for something to blame and they want a big fix. And that I heard a lot from voters. And so immigration was, like, sort of an easy case to make for folks. And the Latino vote, like all other voting blocs, do not vote as a monolith, which means, like, they don't vote as one. There is just so many factors that affect how people view politics and who they support. And that is especially true with a group of voters who come from, like, all different parts of the world. Right. I mean, this is not just a growing electorate. It's a relatively new part of this country, and it is shifting, and people are coming from various geographic backgrounds. I think it is not surprising that during this big boom in population, there is also this voting shift. It's like the longer people stay somewhere, the more they change. And I think, like, how people vote is going to be changing constantly, probably.
Deepa Shivaram
And it would be a mistake to assume that with these major demographic shifts, these major population shifts, that things would stay the same. Right. Why would they?
Ashley Lopez
Yeah, exactly.
Sarah McCammon
You know, I talked to this Republican strategist who has written about Latino voters, focuses on Latino voters named Mike Madrid. And, you know, he told me that he's a Republican, but he thinks Democrats do have an opportunity to win back some of these Latino voters if they start speaking to these issues that seem to drive the 2024 campaign.
Ashley Lopez
Yeah, I mean, issues of democracy and, you know, a lot of the things that. Like holding a former president accountable for going against Democratic norms, that is just not something that someone who's a citizen probably cares as much as they do, especially when they're feeling, you know, economic pressures and don't have those kind of norms in the country they came from. Like, it is a hard pitch to make everyone care about that over their material needs. And I think that's like one of the big lessons that is coming out of this election.
Deepa Shivaram
Yeah, economy, economy, number one. We just, we knew that months and months ago, and it's still true today. All right. We're going to leave it there for today. I'm Deepa Shivram. I cover the White House.
Ashley Lopez
I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.
Sarah McCammon
I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover politics.
Deepa Shivaram
And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics podcast.
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Summary of "Cost Of Living, Personal Values Led Latino Voters To Trump"
Podcast: The NPR Politics Podcast
Host/Authors: Deepa Shivaram, Ashley Lopez, Sarah McCammon
Episode Title: Cost Of Living, Personal Values Led Latino Voters To Trump
In this episode of The NPR Politics Podcast, hosts Deepa Shivaram, Ashley Lopez, and Sarah McCammon delve into the surprising trend of Latino voters supporting Donald Trump in the recent election. With Trump securing 46% of the Latino vote— the highest ever for a Republican— the hosts explore the multifaceted reasons behind this shift, focusing on economic concerns, personal values, and the nuanced perspectives within the Latino community.
Trump's Highest Latino Support: Trump garnered 46% of the Latino vote in the recent election, marking the highest support a Republican candidate has achieved within this demographic.
Significant Shift: This level of support represents a double-digit growth in Republican backing among Latino voters, surpassing earlier projections and highlighting a notable shift in political alignment.
Ashley Lopez emphasizes that the economy remains the foremost issue influencing Latino voters:
"Their lack of trust in Democrats to solve their sort of material needs... they were screaming at both parties to solve inflation and economic pressures that they were feeling."
[06:42]
Latino voters, many of whom are immigrants or come from immigrant families, perceive economic prosperity as a central promise of the American Dream. The inability to achieve this has led to frustration and a search for alternatives, with Trump’s economic promises resonating more strongly.
Beyond economic factors, personal and cultural values play a crucial role in shaping voting behavior among Latino voters:
Social and Cultural Concerns: Issues such as abortion, transgender rights, and family values are significant. Voters feel that Trump aligns more closely with their conservative evangelical beliefs compared to Democrats.
Respect for Values: Sarah McCammon reports that many Latino voters appreciate Trump's stance on these cultural issues, perceiving him as someone who respects and understands their concerns better than Democratic candidates.
"He respects Christian values and his understanding of how America should be according to the Constitution is based on Christian values."
[03:36] - Raul de La Cruz
The hosts discuss the complexity of immigration views within the Latino community:
Security and Legal Processes: Many Latino voters support Trump's stricter immigration policies, viewing them as necessary for safety and the rule of law.
Selective Concerns: While acknowledging that not all immigrants pose issues, there is a consensus on the need for controlled and legal immigration processes.
"I want to be safe. So those same arguments that Trump was making, sort of, you know, that appealed broadly among the white electorate, seem to appeal to many of the Latinos I've talked to as well."
[11:14] - Karen Orta
The Latino electorate is far from homogenous, with diverse backgrounds and priorities influencing voting patterns:
Varied Backgrounds: The community comprises individuals from different countries, generations, and socio-economic statuses, leading to a broad spectrum of political views.
Immigrant vs. Established Citizens: Recent immigrants may prioritize economic opportunities and security, whereas long-term citizens might focus more on cultural and social issues.
"Latinos do not vote as a monolith... there is just so many factors that affect how people view politics and who they support."
[12:27] - Ashley Lopez
Compared to prior elections, the Republican surge among Latino voters is unprecedented:
Previously Lower Support: Historically, Latino voters have leaned more Democratic, making Trump's current support levels particularly noteworthy.
Emerging Trends: The shift was evident in the 2020 data but has intensified significantly in this election cycle, indicating evolving political dynamics within the community.
"The shift was starting to emerge... but we're talking double digit growth, which I think was not expected."
[05:37] - Sarah McCammon
Despite the current trends, there remains room for the Democratic Party to reclaim Latino voters by addressing their core concerns:
Addressing Economic and Social Issues: Democrat strategies focusing on resolving economic challenges and respecting cultural values could resonate more with Latino voters.
Rebuilding Trust: Demonstrating a genuine commitment to improving material conditions and acknowledging the specific needs of the Latino community may bridge the support gap.
"He thinks Democrats do have an opportunity to win back some of these Latino voters if they start speaking to these issues that seem to drive the 2024 campaign."
[14:00] - Mike Madrid
The episode concludes with a consensus that the economic landscape remains the most impactful factor driving Latino voters towards Republican candidates like Donald Trump. Personal values and cultural concerns further solidify this support, showcasing a complex interplay of factors beyond mere party affiliation. As demographic shifts continue, the political strategies of both major parties will need to adapt to the evolving priorities and identities within the Latino electorate.
"Economy, economy, number one."
[14:53] - Deepa Shivaram
Raul de La Cruz:
"I am not voting for a pastor. I'm not voting for a leader at a church. I'm voting for a man that respects Christian values and his understanding of how America should be according to the Constitution is based on Christian values."
[03:36]
Ashley Lopez on Economic Pressures:
"There is nothing more frustrating to a group of people than to have made all these sacrifices and to show up somewhere and feel like this one thing that you were promised seems so far out of reach."
[06:28]
Karen Orta on Immigration:
"Not everybody coming through the border is causing problems, but she feels that some people are."
[11:14]
This episode of The NPR Politics Podcast provides a comprehensive exploration of the factors influencing Latino voters' support for Donald Trump, highlighting the importance of economic stability and personal values in shaping political affiliations.